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Background Interval breast cancers (BC) are those diagnosed within 24 months of a negative mammogram. This study estimates the odds of being diagnosed with high-severity BC among screen-detected, interval, and other symptom-detected BC (no screening history within 2 years); and explores factors associated with being diagnosed with interval BC. Methods Telephone interviews and self-administered questionnaires were conducted among women (n = 3,326) diagnosed with BC in 2010–2013 in Queensland. Respondents were categorised into screen-detected, interval, and other symptom-detected BCs. Data were analysed using logistic regressions with multiple imputation. Results Compared with screen-detected BC, interval BC had higher odds of late-stage (OR = 3.50, 2.9–4.3), high-grade (OR = 2.36, 1.9–2.9) and triple-negative cancers (OR = 2.55, 1.9–3.5). Compared with other symptom-detected BC, interval BC had lower odds of late stage (OR = 0.75, 0.6–0.9), but higher odds of triple-negative cancers (OR = 1.68, 1.2–2.3). Among women who had a negative mammogram (n = 2,145), 69.8% were diagnosed at their next mammogram, while 30.2% were diagnosed with an interval cancer. Those with an interval cancer were more likely to have healthy weight (OR = 1.37, 1.1–1.7), received hormone replacement therapy (2–10 years: OR = 1.33, 1.0–1.7; > 10 years: OR = 1.55, 1.1–2.2), conducted monthly breast self-examinations (BSE) (OR = 1.66, 1.2–2.3) and had previous mammogram in a public facility (OR = 1.52, 1.2–2.0). Conclusion These results highlight the benefits of screening even among those with an interval cancer. Women-conducted BSE were more likely to have interval BC which may reflect their increased ability to notice symptoms between screening intervals.

Spatial modelling of cancer survival is an important tool for identifying geographic disparities and providing an evidence base for resource allocation. Many different approaches have attempted to understand how survival varies geographically. This is the first scoping review to describe different methods and visualization techniques and to assess temporal trends in publications. The review was carried out using the PRISMA guideline using PubMed and Web of Science databases. Two authors independently screened articles. Articles were eligible for review if they measured cancer survival outcomes in small geographical areas by using spatial regression and/or mapping. Thirty-two articles were included, and the number increased over time. Most articles have been conducted in high-income countries using cancer registry databases. Eight different methods of modelling spatial survival were identified, and there were seven different ways of visualizing the results. Increasing the use of spatial modelling through enhanced data availability and knowledge sharing could help inform and motivate efforts to improve cancer outcomes and reduce excess deaths due to geographical inequalities. Efforts to improve the coverage and completeness of population-based cancer registries should continue to be a priority, in addition to encouraging the open sharing of relevant statistical programming syntax and international collaborations.

Background: This study quantified differences in remaining life expectancy (RLE) among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and other Australian patients with cancer. We assessed how much of this disparity was due to differences in cancer and noncancer mortality and calculated the population gain in life years for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders cancer diagnoses if the cancer survival disparities were removed. Methods: Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate RLE by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander status for a population-based cohort of 709,239 persons (12,830 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders), 2005 to 2016. Results: For all cancers combined, the average disparity in RLE was 8.0 years between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (12.0 years) and other Australians (20.0 years). The magnitude of this disparity varied by cancer type, being >10 years for cervical cancer versus Conclusions: A cancer diagnosis exacerbates the existing disparities in RLE among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. Addressing them will require consideration of both cancer-related factors and those contributing to noncancer mortality. Impact: Reported survival-based measures provided additional insights into the overall impact of cancer over a lifetime horizon among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

Estimates of childhood cancer survival are usually reported at 5 years after diagnosis only. Using cases prevalent between 2014 and 2018 from the population-based Australian Childhood Cancer Registry, we used the period method to calculate relative survival up to 20 years post diagnosis by cancer type. Twenty-year relative survival for all childhood cancers combined (n = 14,353) was 83.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 82.6%-85.0%). Survival decreased only slightly after 10 years for most childhood cancers, except for some types of brain and liver tumours. These contemporary estimates of long-term survival provide valuable information to assist childhood cancer patients and their families in planning for the future.

Rare cancers collectively account for around a quarter of cancer diagnoses and deaths. However, epidemiological studies are sparse. We describe spatial and geographical patterns in incidence and survival of rare cancers across Australia using a population-based cancer registry cohort of rare cancer cases diagnosed among Australians aged at least 15 years, 2007 to 2016. Rare cancers were defined using site- and histology-based categories from the European RARECARE study, as individual cancer types having crude annual incidence rates of less than 6/100 000. Incidence and survival patterns were modelled with generalised linear and Bayesian spatial Leroux models. Spatial heterogeneity was tested using the maximised excess events test. Rare cancers (n = 268 070) collectively comprised 22% of all invasive cancer diagnoses and accounted for 27% of all cancer-related deaths in Australia, 2007 to 2016 with an overall 5-year relative survival of around 53%. Males and those living in more remote or more disadvantaged areas had higher incidence but lower survival. There was substantial evidence for spatial variation in both incidence and survival for rare cancers between small geographical areas across Australia, with similar patterns so that those areas with higher incidence tended to have lower survival. Rare cancers are a substantial health burden in Australia. Our study has highlighted the need to better understand the higher burden of these cancers in rural and disadvantaged regions where the logistical challenges in their diagnosis, treatment and support are magnified.

PURPOSE: Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander diagnosed with cancer are known to experience poorer survival, with these survival disparities mainly restricted to the first 2 years after diagnosis. With improved accuracy and completeness of identifying Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples over the whole study period, our goal was to examine whether the survival disparity among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples diagnosed with cancer in Queensland has changed over time. METHODS: Population-based data from the Queensland Cancer Register between 1998 and 2017 for Queenslanders aged 15 years and over at diagnosis (n = 377,963; 1.6% Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander) were used to determine whether this disparity has reduced over time. Flexible parametric survival models incorporating time-varying coefficients were used to examine the association between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander status and cancer-specific survival within 5 years of diagnosis. RESULTS: The adjusted 5-year cancer-specific survival rate for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people diagnosed with cancer increased from 60.5% (95% CI 59.2-61.9%) in 1998-2007 to 65.5% (95% CI 64.3-66.6%) in 2008-2017, with the corresponding estimates for other Queenslanders being 66.6% (95% CI 66.4-66.8%) and 70.1% (95% CI 69.9-70.3%). The survival disparity was significant only for the first 3 years since diagnosis for 1998-2007; however, it was significantly (p ≤ 0.02) elevated for all five time intervals for 2008-2017, with similar average hazard ratios (95% CIs) over the 5-year interval after diagnosis of 1.45 (1.36-1.55) for 1998-2007 and 1.42 (1.34-1.50) for 2008-2017. CONCLUSION: Although survival has increased over time, the lack of improvement in the disparity in cancer survival experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cancer patients highlights the urgent need to better understand the multifaceted and completed factors that underlie this gap to guide targeted, evidence-based interventions and support their implementation across the health sector.

OBJECTIVE: Smoking has been associated with a reduced risk of thyroid cancer, but whether the association varies between higher- and lower-risk cancers remains unclear. We aimed to assess the association between smoking and risk of thyroid cancer overall as well as by tumour BRAF mutational status as a marker of potentially higher-risk cancer. DESIGN AND PATIENTS: We recruited 1013 people diagnosed with thyroid cancer and 1057 population controls frequency-matched on age and sex. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association overall and in analyses stratified by tumour characteristics. We used sensitivity analysis to assess the potential for selection bias. RESULTS: We found little evidence of an association with current smoking (odds ratio [OR] = 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69-1.26; current vs. never smoking), but a higher number of pack-years of smoking was associated with a lower risk of thyroid cancer (OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.57-0.99; ≥20 pack-years vs. never). However, after correcting for potential selection bias, we observed a statistically significant inverse association between current smoking and risk of thyroid cancer (bias-corrected OR = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.51-0.83). Those with BRAF-positive cancers were less likely to be current smokers than those with BRAF-negative cancers (prevalence ratio: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.62-0.99). CONCLUSION: We found smoking was inversely related to thyroid cancer risk and, in particular, current smoking was associated with a reduced risk of potentially more aggressive BRAF-positive than the likely more indolent BRAF-negative papillary thyroid cancers.

Objective Despite Australia’s National Cervical Screening Program, Indigenous women have a disproportionately high burden of cervical cancer. We describe temporal and area-level patterns in prevalence of histologically conformed high-grade cervical abnormalities (hHGA) among cytologically screened women by Indigenous status. Methods This was a population-based study of 2,132,925 women, aged 20–69, who underwent cervical screening between 2008 and 2017, in Queensland, Australia. Of these, 47,136 were identified as Indigenous from linked hospital records. Overall patterns in hHGA prevalence by Indigenous status were quantified using prevalence rate ratios (PrRR) from negative binomial models. Bayesian spatial models were used to obtain smoothed prevalence estimates of hHGA across 528 small areas compared to the state average. Results are presented as maps and graphs showing the associated uncertainty of the estimates. Results Overall, screened Indigenous women had significantly higher hHGA prevalence than non-Indigenous women. However, the magnitude of the difference reduced over time ( p Conclusions While the temporal reduction in Indigenous: non-Indigenous differential in hHGA prevalence is encouraging, further research into the key drivers of the continuing higher risk among Indigenous women is warranted.

OBJECTIVE: To identify whether supportive care needs vary according to remoteness and area-level socio-economic status and to identify the combinations of socio-demographic, area-level and health factors that are associated with poorer quality of life, psychological distress and severity of unmet supportive care needs. METHODS: Cross sectional data was collected from women with a breast cancer diagnosis (n = 2635) in Queensland, Australia, through a telephone survey including socio-demographic, health, psychosocial and supportive care needs measures. Hierarchical regression and cluster analyses were applied to assess the predictors of unmet need and psychosocial outcomes and to identify socio-demographic and health status profiles of women, comparing their level of unmet needs and psychosocial outcomes. RESULTS: Women living in outer regional areas reported the highest severity of unmet need in the patient care domain. Greater unmet need for health systems and information and patient care was also evident for those in moderately and most disadvantaged areas. Three clusters were identified reflecting (1) older women with poorer health and lower education (19%); (2) younger educated women with better health and private insurance (61%); and (3) physically active women with localised cancer who had completed treatment (20%). Poorer outcomes were evident in the first two of these clusters. CONCLUSIONS: This better understanding of the combinations of characteristics associated with poorer psychosocial outcomes and higher unmet need can be used to identify women with higher supportive care needs early and to target interventions.

Large improvements in childhood cancer survival have been reported over recent decades. Data from cancer registries have the advantage of providing a 'whole of population' approach to gauge the success of cancer control efforts.The aim of this study was to investigate recent survival estimates for children diagnosed with cancer Australia and to examine the extent of changes in survival over the last 35 years. For the first time, we also estimated the number of deaths among Australian children that were potentially avoided due to improvements in survival.A retrospective, population-based cohort study design was used. Case information was extracted from the Australian Childhood Cancer Registry for 1983-2016, with follow-up to 31 December 2017. Eligible children were aged 0-14 with a basis of diagnosis other than autopsy or death certificate only. Five-year relative survival was calculated using the semi-complete cohort method for three diagnosis periods (1983-1994, 1995-2006 and 2007-2016), and changes in survival over time were assessed via flexible parametric models. Avoided deaths within 5 years for those diagnosed between 1995 and 2016 were estimated under the assumption that survival rates remained the same as for 1983-1994.Overall 5-year survival within the study cohort (n = 20,871) increased from 72.8% between 1983 and1994 to 86.1% between 2007 and 2016, equating to an adjusted excess mortality hazard ratio of 1.82 (95% confidence interval 1.67, 1.97). Most cancers showed improvements in survival; other gliomas, hepatoblastoma and osteosarcoma were exceptions. Among children diagnosed between 1995 and 2016, 38.7% of expected deaths within 5 years of diagnosis (n = 1537 of 3970) were avoided due to temporal improvements in survival.Survival for childhood cancer has continued to improve over recent years, thanks mainly to ongoing progress in treatment development combined with improved supportive care. Providing innovative measures of survival, such as avoided deaths, may assist with understanding outcome data produced by cancer registries.

Dear Editor, Despite overall favourable prognosis, thin (≤ 1·0 mm) cutaneous melanomas account for 23% of melanoma deaths in the high-risk general population of Queensland, Australia (2005–2009), because of the sheer volume of disease. The prospect of adjuvant systemic therapy has increased the focus on identifying patients with thin melanoma who are at high risk of death, such as through gene expression profiling (GEP), sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) or prognostic models.

Background: The impact of hospital characteristics on the quality of surgery and survival following oesophagogastric cancer surgery has not been well established in Australia. We assessed the interaction between hospital volume, service capability and surgical outcomes, with the hypothesis that both the quality of surgery and survival are better following treatment in high-volume, high service capability hospitals. Methods: All patients undergoing oesophagectomy and gastrectomy for cancer in Queensland, between 2001 and 2015, were included. Demographic, pathology and outcome data were collected. Hospitals were categorized into high (HV) (≥5 gastrectomies; ≥6 oesophagectomies) and low volume (LV). Hospital service capability was defined as high (HS) and low (LS), and then linked to hospital volume: HVHS, LVHS and LVLS. Higher quality surgery was defined using six perioperative parameters. Univariable comparisons of quality of surgery between hospital groups used chi-squared tests. The 5-year overall survival was compared using log-rank tests and Cox proportional hazard models. Results: For both gastrectomy and oesophagectomy, higher quality surgery occurred more frequently in HVHS hospitals (gastrectomy: HVHS = 44.2%, LVHS = 23.1%, LVLS = 29.1% (P < 0.01); oesophagectomy: HVHS = 34.5%, LVHS = 24.4%, LVLS = 21.7% (P = 0.01)). Following oesophagectomy, the 3- and 5-year overall survival was better following treatment in HVHS (P < 0.01). There was no difference between the groups following gastrectomy. Conclusion: In Queensland, the quality of surgery was higher in HVHS hospitals performing gastrectomy and oesophagectomy; however, the impact on cancer survival was only seen following oesophagectomy.

Background The literature surrounding survival of patients with multiple primary melanomas (MPM) yields variable and opposing findings, constrained by statistical challenges. Objectives To critically examine the available literature regarding survival of patients with MPM compared with a single primary melanoma and detail statistical methods used. Methods Electronic searches were performed of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus, with cross-checking of references, for the period January 1956 to June 2019. Studies published in English examining survival in patients with multiple melanomas were included. Case studies and small case series were excluded. Results There were 14 studies eligible for inclusion. Conclusions on survival varied markedly depending on the statistical method used. Four studies that accounted for survival bias by partitioning the survival time were included in the quantitative review, with 3 of these reporting a survival disadvantage for MPM, whereas the fourth showed no difference in survival. The pooled hazard ratio was 1.39 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.81) but with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 96.8%, Phet Limitations Studies showed significant heterogeneity in methodology. Conclusion When data were analyzed with robust statistical methods, patients with MPM had a survival disadvantage compared with patients with a single primary melanoma.

BackgroundCancer atlases often provide estimates of cancer incidence, mortality or survival across small areas of a region or country. A recent example of a cancer atlas is the Australian cancer atlas (ACA), that provides interactive maps to visualise spatially smoothed estimates of cancer incidence and survival for 20 different cancer types over 2148 small areas across Australia.MethodsThe present study proposes a multivariate Bayesian meta-analysis model, which can model multiple cancers jointly using summary measures without requiring access to the unit record data. This new approach is illustrated by modelling the publicly available spatially smoothed standardised incidence ratios for multiple cancers in the ACA divided into three groups: common, rare/less common and smoking-related. The multivariate Bayesian meta-analysis models are fitted to each group in order to explore any possible association between the cancers in three remoteness regions: major cities, regional and remote areas across Australia. The correlation between the pairs of cancers included in each multivariate model for a group was examined by computing the posterior correlation matrix for each cancer group in each region. The posterior correlation matrices in different remoteness regions were compared using Jennrich’s test of equality of correlation matrices (Jennrich in J Am Stat Assoc. 1970;65(330):904–12.10.1080/01621459.1970.10481133).ResultsSubstantive correlation was observed among some cancer types. There was evidence that the magnitude of this correlation varied according to remoteness of a region. For example, there has been significant negative correlation between prostate and lung cancer in major cities, but zero correlation found in regional and remote areas for the same pair of cancer types. High risk areas for specific combinations of cancer types were identified and visualised from the proposed model.ConclusionsPublicly available spatially smoothed disease estimates can be used to explore additional research questions by modelling multiple cancer types jointly. These proposed multivariate meta-analysis models could be useful when unit record data are unavailable because of privacy and confidentiality requirements.

Background: Thyroid cancer incidence has increased in many parts of the world since the 1980s, as has the prevalence of obesity. Evidence suggests that people with greater body size have higher thy...

Purpose This study explores factors that are associated with the severity of breast cancer (BC) at diagnosis. Methods Interviews were conducted among women (n = 3326) aged 20–79 diagnosed with BC between 2011 and 2013 in Queensland, Australia. High-severity cancers were defined as either Stage II–IV, Grade 3, or having negative hormone receptors at diagnosis. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) of high severity BC for variables relating to screening, lifestyle, reproductive habits, family history, socioeconomic status, and area disadvantage. Results Symptom-detected women had greater odds (OR 3.38, 2.86–4.00) of being diagnosed with high-severity cancer than screen-detected women. Women who did not have regular mammograms had greater odds (OR 1.78, 1.40–2.28) of being diagnosed with high-severity cancer than those who had mammograms biennially. This trend was significant in both screen-detected and symptom-detected women. Screen-detected women who were non-smokers (OR 1.77, 1.16–2.71), postmenopausal (OR 2.01, 1.42–2.84), or employed (OR 1.46, 1.15–1.85) had greater odds of being diagnosed with high-severity cancer than those who were current smokers, premenopausal, or unemployed. Symptom-detected women being overweight (OR 1.67, 1.31–2.14), postmenopausal (OR 2.01, 1.43–2.82), had hormone replacement therapy (HRT) 10 years. Conclusion Screen-detected women and women who had mammograms biennially had lower odds of being diagnosed with high-severity breast cancer, which highlighted the benefit of regular breast cancer screening. Women in subgroups who are more likely to have more severe cancers should be particularly encouraged to participate in regular mammography screening.

Background: This study quantifies the number of potentially “avoided”cancer deaths due to differences in 10-year relative survival between three time periods, reflecting temporal improvements in cancer diagnostic and/or treatment practices in Australia. Methods: National population-based cohort of 2,307,565 Australians ages 15 to 89 years, diagnosed with a primary invasive cancer from 1985 to 2014 with mortality follow-up to December 31, 2015. Excess mortality rates and crude probabilities of cancer deaths were estimated using flexible parametric relative survival models. Crude probabilities were then used to calculate “avoided cancer deaths” (reduced number of cancer deaths within 10 years of diagnosis due to survival changes since 1985–1994) for all cancers and 13 leading cancer types. Results: For each cancer type, excess mortality (in the cancer cohort vs. the expected population mortality) was significantly lower for more recently diagnosed persons. For all cancers combined, the number of “avoided cancer deaths” (vs. 1985–1994) was 4,877 (1995–2004) and 11,385 (2005–2014) among males. Prostate (1995–2004: 2,144; 2005–2014: 5,099) and female breast cancer (1,127 and 2,048) had the highest number of such deaths, whereas Conclusions: Screening and early detection likely contributed to the high number of “avoided cancer deaths” for prostate and female breast cancer, whereas early detection remains difficult for lung and pancreatic cancers, highlighting the need for improved preventive and screening measures. Impact: Absolute measures such as “avoided cancer deaths” can provide a more tangible estimate of the improvements in cancer survival than standard net survival measures.

Background: With the improvements in cancer diagnosis and treatment, more patients with cancer are surviving for longer periods than before. This study aims to quantify the proportion cured and median survival time for those who are not cured for major cancers in Australia. Methods: Australian population-based cohort of 2,164,172 cases, ages 15 to 89 years, whose first cancer diagnosis between 1982 and 2014 was one of 22 leading cancers, were followed up to December 2014. Flexible parametric cure models were used to estimate the proportion cured and median survival time for those uncured by age, sex, and spread of disease, and temporal trends in these measures. Results: Cure estimates could be generated for 19 of the 22 cancer types. The unadjusted proportion cured ranged from 5.0% for pancreatic cancer to 90.0% for melanoma. Median survival time for those uncured ranged from 0.35 years for pancreatic cancer to 6.05 years for prostate cancer. Cancers were divided into four groups according to their proportion cured in the 1980s and the degree of improvement over 28 years. Esophageal, stomach, pancreatic, liver, gallbladder, lung, and brain cancer had lower proportion cured and smaller improvements over time. Conclusions: For cancers with poor survival in which little has changed over time either in prolonging life or achieving statistical cure, efforts should be focused on reducing the prevalence of known risk factors and earlier detection, thereby enabling more effective treatment. Impact: Cure models provide unique insights into whether survival improvements are due to prolonging life or through curing the disease.

There is little long-term follow-up information about how the number of melanoma deaths and case fatality vary over time according to the measured thickness of melanoma at diagnosis. This population-based longitudinal cohort study examines patterns and trends in case fatality among 44,531 people in Queensland (Australia) diagnosed with a single invasive melanoma (International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision [ICD-O-3], C44, Morphology 872-879) between 1987 and 2011, including 11,883 diagnosed between 1987 and 1996, with up to 20 years follow-up (to December 2016). The 20-year case fatality increased by thickness, with the percentage of melanoma deaths within 20 years of diagnosis being up to 4.8% for melanomas with measured thickness

Purpose The purpose of the study is to assess the global risk of extracolonic secondary primary cancers (SPCs) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods Studies of SPC in patients with CRC were included if they reported the standardised incidence ratio (SIR) for extracolonic SPCs in patients with CRC compared with the general population. Pooled summary estimates were calculated using a random-effects model. Results A total of 7,716,750 patients with CRC from 13 retrospective cohort studies that reported extracolonic SPC incidence were included. The overall risk of several SPCs was significantly higher in patients with CRC compared with the general population, including cancers of the urinary bladder (pooled SIR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06–1.33; p = 0.003), female genital tract (1.88, 1.07–3.31; p = 0.03), kidney (1.50, 1.19–1.89; p = 0.0007), thorax (lung, bronchus and mediastinum) (1.16, 1.01–1.32; p = 0.03), small intestine (4.26, 2.58–7.01; p p = 0.003), and thyroid (1.40, 1.28–1.53; p p = 0.04). There was also a decreased risk of developing cancer of the gall bladder (0.75, 0.60–0.94; p = 0.01). Conclusion Patients with CRC had a significantly increased risk of extracolonic SPCs compared with the general population. These findings highlight the need to develop research strategies for the management of second primary cancer in patients with CRC.

Refereed/Peer-reviewed Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are an uncommon group of blood cancers that, if untreated, result in an increased risk of haemorrhagic event or thrombosis. Unlike other cancer types, diagnosis of MPNs requires a combination of microscopic, clinical and genetic evidence, which provide unique challenges given the typical notification processes of cancer registries. This, and the relatively recent advances in diagnosis and revision of the World Health Organization diagnostic criteria, may result in under-diagnosis or under-reporting of MPNs.We used population-based cancer registry data from the Australian Cancer Database and modelled the incidence and survival of MPNs between 2007 and 2016 using generalised linear models and Bayesian spatial Leroux models.Substantial evidence was found of spatial heterogeneity in the incidence of MPNs and significant differences in incidence and survival by state or territory. States with lower incidence tended to have poorer survival, suggesting that some less severe cases may not be diagnosed or notified to the registries in those states. Population rates of genetic testing and percentages of records diagnosed using bone marrow biopsies did not explain the differences in incidence by state and territory. It is important to determine the key drivers of these geographical patterns, including the need to standardise diagnosis and reporting of MPNs.

OBJECTIVES: To describe changes in childhood cancer incidence in Australia, 1983-2015, and to estimate projected incidence to 2035.DESIGN, SETTING: Population-based study; analysis of Australian Childhood Cancer Registry data for the 20 547 children under 15 years of age diagnosed with cancer in Australia between 1983 and 2015.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence rate changes during 1983-2015 were assessed by joinpoint regression, with rates age-standardised to the 2001 Australian standard population. Incidence projections to 2035 were estimated by age-period-cohort modelling.RESULTS: The overall age-standardised incidence rate of childhood cancer increased by 34% between 1983 and 2015, increasing by 1.2% (95% CI, +0.5% to +1.9%) per annum between 2005 and 2015. During 2011-2015, the mean annual number of children diagnosed with cancer in Australia was 770, an incidence rate of 174 cases (95% CI, 169-180 cases) per million children per year. The incidence of hepatoblastoma (annual percentage change [APC], +2.3%; 95% CI, +0.8% to +3.8%), Burkitt lymphoma (APC, +1.6%; 95% CI, +0.4% to +2.8%), osteosarcoma (APC, +1.1%; 95%, +0.0% to +2.3%), intracranial and intraspinal embryonal tumours (APC, +0.9%; 95% CI, +0.4% to +1.5%), and lymphoid leukaemia (APC, +0.5%; 95% CI, +0.2% to +0.8%) increased significantly across the period 1983-2015. The incidence rate of childhood melanoma fell sharply between 1996 and 2015 (APC, -7.7%; 95% CI, -10% to -4.8%). The overall annual cancer incidence rate is conservatively projected to rise to about 186 cases (95% CI, 175-197 cases) per million children by 2035 (1060 cases per year).CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rates of several childhood cancer types steadily increased during 1983-2015. Although the reasons for these rises are largely unknown, our findings provide a foundation for health service planning for meeting the needs of children who will be diagnosed with cancer until 2035.

This study reports cancer incidence and survival among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children and other Australian children, and assesses changes over time.Data were from the population-based Australian Childhood Cancer Registry. The study comprised children aged under 15 diagnosed between 1997 and 2016 and with mortality follow-up until 31 December 2017. Incidence trends were analysed using JoinPoint regression. Five-year cancer-specific survival was calculated using the semi-complete approach with survival comparisons made using multivariable flexible parametric models.Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children accounted for 506 of 13,299 eligible cases (3.8%). Incidence rates for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children across the study period increased by 2.3% annually (95% confidence interval [CI]: +0.6% to +4.0%) and for other Australian children increased by 0.6% annually (95% CI: +0.3% to +0.9%; p = .05). Nonetheless, cancer incidence was consistently lower for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.62-0.85; p .01) between 2012 and 2016. Survival for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children with solid tumours was 70.6% (95% CI: 62.5%-77.3%) and for other Australian children was 83.5% (95% CI: 82.3%-84.7%; p.01), with indications of this difference diminishing in recent years.Improvements in identification, particularly in urban areas, most likely accounts for the greater increase in cancer incidence rates among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children. Examination of data on stage at diagnosis and treatment may provide important insights into survival for children with solid tumours.

There is growing evidence suggesting that text-message-based interventions are effective to promote sun protection behaviors. However, it is still unclear how engagement and adherence with the intervention messages can be optimized through intervention design. This study evaluated the effect of different combinations of personalized and two-way interactive messages on participant engagement with a theory-based skin cancer prevention intervention. In the SunText study conducted in February–July 2019 in Queensland, Australia participants 18–40 years were randomized to four different text message schedules using a Latin square design. This study analyzed if the order and intensity in which the schedules were received were associated with participants’ level of engagement, and if this differed by demographic factors. Out of the 389 participants enrolled in the study, 375 completed the intervention period and remained for analysis. The overall intervention engagement rate was 71% and decreased from the beginning to the end of the study (82.2%–61.4%). The group starting with personalized, but not interactive messaging showed the lowest engagement rate. The intervention involving interactive messages three times a week for 4 weeks achieved the highest engagement rate. The intervention with increasing frequency (personalized and interactive three times a week for 2 weeks; then daily for 2 weeks) had lower engagement than intervention with constant or decreasing frequency. Engagement with two-way interactive messages was high across all intervention groups. Results suggest enhanced engagement with constant or decreasing message frequency compared to increasing frequency.

Background Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are a relatively new group of blood cancers arising from genetic mutations in haematopoietic stem cells. Diagnostic delay is associated with thromboses, strokes and heart attacks. We investigated geographic variation in diagnosis and survival for classic MPNs. Methods Data for classic MPNs were obtained from the Australian Cancer Database. Leroux spatial models for incidence and survival were fitted using CARBayes, WinBUGS via R and tests for spatial clustering were conducted. Results The age-standardised incidence rate was 4.9 (95% CI: 4.8-5.0) per 100,000 person-years during 2007-2016 with relative survival of 78% (77%, 79%) at 5 years after diagnosis. Strong evidence of spatial variation in incidence was observed (p Differences between states and territories could not be explained by population rates of genetic testing or the proportion of registered cases with histological evidence. Conclusions Stark spatial differences in incidence rates of classic MPNs suggest that varying diagnosis and registration patterns between states results in under-recognition, and potentially undertreatment. It is imperative that reporting is consistent so that sound evidence is available for efforts to reduce disparities in diagnosis and management. Key messages Early identification of MPNs is crucial, however, strong spatial geographical variation in incidence rates suggest diagnostic and notification practices may not be consistent across the country.

Background While relative survival is commonly used to describe cancer prognosis, its interpretation remains confusing. Alternative measures provide additional insights into the survival experience of Australian cancer patients. Methods Population-based cohort of over 2 million Australians diagnosed with 19 types of primary invasive cancer from 1982 to 2014 with mortality follow-up to 31 December 2015. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate loss of life expectancy, avoidable cancer deaths, crude survival, probability of cure and survival of uncured population for cancers diagnosed in Australia. Results There has been an overall decrease in the loss of life expectancy caused by a cancer diagnosis. Australians diagnosed in 2014 will gain an extra 432,588 life years due to the improvement in relative survival since 1982. Similarly, 29% (females) and 40% (males) of expected cancer deaths among the 2005-2014 cohort will be avoided compared to the 1985-1994 cohort. While the 10- year crude probability of cancer deaths decreased over time, patterns varied by cancer type. The crude probability of competing deaths increased with age. Between 1982 and 2009, the cure proportion increased significantly for all cancers. Conclusion Alternative measures of survival may help communicate the reducing impact that a cancer diagnosis has on average life expectancy. Key messages The growing number of Australian cancer survivors can pose emerging challenges to these patients, their caregivers, medical professionals and health-care systems in accessing or providing evidence-based survivorship and psychosocial care after a cancer diagnosis.

Background: International literature recommends centralising gastric cancer surgery, however, with volumes that define ‘high-volume resection’ being higher than those in most major centres in Australia and New Zealand. These reports rarely focus on the difference between total (TG) and partial gastrectomy (PG). We assessed the impact of resection volume and service capability on operative mortality, morbidity and surgical quality in patients who had a PG and TG. Methods: Patients who had gastrectomy for adenocarcinoma, between 2001 and 2015, were collected from the Queensland Oncology Repository. Hospitals were characterised by cases-per-annum (high-volume [HV] ≥ 5 and low-volume [LV] < 5) and hospital service capability as (high-service [HS] and low-service [LS]), giving three hospital groups: HVHS, LVHS and LVLS. Chi-squared tests were used to compare post-operative mortality, morbidity, failure to rescue (FTR) from complications and surgical quality between these three groups. Results: There were 426 patients who had a TG and 827 having PG. HVHS centres performed 59% of PG with high surgical quality rates of: HVHS = 53%, LVHS = 34% and LVLS = 46% (p < 0.01). Surgical complications were highest in LVLS (LVLS = 19%, LVHS = 11%, HVHS = 11%; p = 0.02). There was no difference in 30-day mortality nor in FTR. For TG, HVHS performed 67% of these procedures, with lower 30-day mortality (2%) and FTR rates (5%) compared with LVHS (7%, 22%) and LVLS (12%, 28%; p < 0.01). There was no difference in operative morbidity and surgical quality between hospital groups. Conclusion: Despite the ‘high-volume’ threshold for gastrectomy being the lowest described in the literature, we have shown that centralisation to HVHS centres was associated with lower operative mortality for TG and improved quality of surgery for PG.

Smoking has been associated with a reduced risk of thyroid cancer, but whether the association varies between higher- and lower-risk cancers remains unclear. We aimed to assess the association between smoking and risk of thyroid cancer overall as well as by tumour BRAF mutational status as a marker of potentially higher-risk cancer.We recruited 1013 people diagnosed with thyroid cancer and 1057 population controls frequency-matched on age and sex.Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association overall and in analyses stratified by tumour characteristics. We used sensitivity analysis to assess the potential for selection bias.We found little evidence of an association with current smoking (odds ratio [OR] = 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69-1.26; current vs. never smoking), but a higher number of pack-years of smoking was associated with a lower risk of thyroid cancer (OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.57-0.99; ≥20 pack-years vs. never). However, after correcting for potential selection bias, we observed a statistically significant inverse association between current smoking and risk of thyroid cancer (bias-corrected OR = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.51-0.83). Those with BRAF-positive cancers were less likely to be current smokers than those with BRAF-negative cancers (prevalence ratio: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.62-0.99).We found smoking was inversely related to thyroid cancer risk and, in particular, current smoking was associated with a reduced risk of potentially more aggressive BRAF-positive than the likely more indolent BRAF-negative papillary thyroid cancers.

Background: High hospital-volume and service capability are associated with improved mortality following complex cancer surgery. Using a population-based study in Queensland, we assessed differences in mortality following oesophagectomy and pancreaticoduodenectomy, comparing high- and low-volume hospitals stratified by service capability. Methods: Data on all patients undergoing oesophagectomy and pancreaticoduodenectomy for cancer in Queensland between 2001 and 2015 were obtained from the Queensland Oncology Repository. Hospital service capability was defined using the 2015 Australian Institute of Health and Welfare hospital peer groupings. Hospitals were grouped into ‘high-volume (≥6 oesophagectomies or pancreaticoduodenectomies annually) with high service capability'; ‘low-volume (

Background: China contributes to almost half of the esophageal cancer cases diagnosed globally each year. However, the prognosis information of this disease in this large population is scarce. Methods: Data on a population-based cohort consisting of residents of Shandong Province, China who were diagnosed with esophageal cancer during the period from 2005 to 2014 were analyzed. The cancer-specific survival rates were estimated using Kaplan–Meier analysis. Discrete-time multilevel mixed-effects survival models were used to investigate socioeconomic status (SES) disparities on esophageal cancer survival. Results: The unadjusted 1-, 3-, and 5-year cause-specific survival rates were 59.6% [95% confidence interval (CI), 59.2%–59.9%], 31.9% (95% CI, 31.5%–32.3%), and 23.6% (95% CI, 23.1%–24.0%), respectively. Patients of blue-collar occupations had higher risk of esophageal cancer–related death than those of white-collar occupations in the first 2 years after diagnosis. Rural patients had higher risk of death than urban patients in the first 3 years after diagnosis. The risks of esophageal cancer–related death among patients living in low/middle/high SES index counties were not different in the first 2 years after diagnosis. However, patients living in high SES index counties had better long-term survival (3–5 years postdiagnosis) than those living in middle or low SES index counties. Conclusions: Socioeconomic inequalities in esophageal cancer survival exist in this Chinese population. Higher individual- or area-level SES is associated with better short-term or long-term cancer survival. Impact: Elucidation of the relative roles of the SES factors on survival could guide interventions to reduce disparities in the prognosis of esophageal cancer.

Survivors of invasive melanoma have an increased risk of developing second primary cancers; however, similar risks associated with in situ melanoma have not been established. We evaluated 39,872 survivors of first primary in situ melanoma diagnosed from 1982 through 2012 in Queensland, Australia. Relative risk of second nonmelanoma primary cancers was estimated from standardized incidence ratios with 95% confidence intervals. A total of 4,823 (12%) in situ melanoma survivors developed a second primary cancer. A small increased risk (6%) compared with the general population was found. In those younger than 50 years, risk was increased by 14% for all cancers combined. In situ melanoma survivors had significantly increased risks of developing lip, thyroid, pancreatic, and brain cancers and decreased risks of head and neck, and lung cancers. Male in situ melanoma survivors had a significantly increased risk of prostate cancer; female survivors had an increased risk of thyroid cancer and lymphoid leukemia. Findings indicate that in situ melanoma may predict the diagnosis of certain second primary cancers. This altered risk may be due to biological, behavioral, or genetic factors or increased medical surveillance, and it requires further investigation, particularly among people younger than 50 years.

Objectives This study will assess the relationship between vitamin D concentration at melanoma diagnosis and melanoma tumor characteristics, in individuals in a high ultraviolet radiation (UVR) environment. Methods We aim to recruit 600 recently diagnosed melanoma patients from Queensland, Australia, a high UVR location with one of the world’s highest melanoma incidence rates. Patients are recruited through general practitioner, skin cancer specialist, dermatological and hospital-based practices. As close as possible to diagnosis, participants provide a blood sample for vitamin D analysis and have their sun exposure/sun protection behavior, melanoma risk factors and dietary vitamin D intake assessed by questionnaire and phone interview. Details of tumor pathology, including tumor level, thickness, and ulceration, are abstracted from cancer registry records. Here, we describe the study methods and present preliminary findings from early participants. Results As of December 2017, we have recruited 128 participants (48% male, mean age 60.2 years, mean Breslow thickness 0.63 mm). Conclusions When complete, this study will give insights into the association between vitamin D at diagnosis and melanoma tumor characteristics whilst adjusting for recent sun exposure and sun protection use. This study may impact military sun exposure and nutrition policies as vitamin D may play a role in melanomagenesis.