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Kirill Zhudenkov,1 Robert Palmér,2 Alexandra Jauhiainen,3 Gabriel Helmlinger,4,5 Oleg Stepanov,1 Kirill Peskov,1,6 Ulf G Eriksson,2 Ulrika Wählby Hamrén2 1M&S Decisions LLC, Moscow, Russia; 2Clinical Pharmacology & Quantitative Pharmacology, Clinical Pharmacology & Safety Sciences, R&D, AstraZeneca, Gothenburg, Sweden; 3BioPharma Early Biometrics and Statistical Innovation, Data Science & AI, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Gothenburg, Sweden; 4Clinical Pharmacology & Quantitative Pharmacology, Clinical Pharmacology & Safety Sciences, R&D, AstraZeneca, Boston, MA, USA; 5Clinical Pharmacology, Toxicology, Quantitative Sciences, Obsidian Therapeutics, Cambridge, MA, USA; 6I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University of the Russian Ministry of Health, Moscow, RussiaCorrespondence: Ulrika Wählby HamrénR&D, AstraZeneca, Pepparedsleden 1, Mölndal SE-431 83, SwedenTel +46 31 776 2295Email Ulrika.wahlby-hamren@astrazeneca.comBackground: Lung function, measured as forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), and exacerbations are two endpoints evaluated in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) clinical trials. Joint analysis of these endpoints could potentially increase statistical power and enable assessment of efficacy in shorter and smaller clinical trials.Objective: To evaluate joint modelling as a tool for analyzing treatment effects in COPD clinical trials by quantifying the association between longitudinal improvements in FEV1 and exacerbation risk reduction.Methods: A joint model of longitudinal FEV1 and exacerbation risk was developed based on patient-level data from a Phase III clinical study in moderate-to-severe COPD (1740 patients), evaluating efficacy of fixed-dose combinations of a long-acting bronchodilator, formoterol, and an inhaled corticosteroid, budesonide. Two additional studies (1604 and 1042 patients) were used for external model validation and parameter re-estimation.Results: A significant (p< 0.0001) association between FEV1 and exacerbation risk was estimated, with an approximate 10% reduction in exacerbation risk per 100 mL improvement in FEV1, consistent across trials and treatment arms. The risk reduction associated with improvements in FEV1 was relatively small compared to the overall exacerbation risk reduction for treatment arms including budesonide (10– 15% per 160 μg budesonide). High baseline breathlessness score and previous history of exacerbations also influenced the risk of exacerbation.Conclusion: Joint modelling can be used to co-analyze longitudinal FEV1 and exacerbation data in COPD clinical trials. The association between the endpoints was consistent and appeared unrelated to treatment mechanism, suggesting that improved lung function is indicative of an exacerbation risk reduction. The risk reduction associated with improved FEV1 was, however, generally small and no major impact on exacerbation trial design can be expected based on FEV1 alone. Further exploration with other longitudinal endpoints should be considered to further evaluate the use of joint modelling in analyzing COPD clinical trials.Keywords: lung function, bronchodilator, anti-inflammatory

We present a meta-analytics approach to quantify NSCLC disease burden by integrative survival models. Aggregated survival data from public sources were used to parameterize the models for early as well as advanced NSCLC stages incorporating chemotherapies, targeted therapies, and immunotherapies. Overall survival (OS) was predicted in a heterogeneous patient cohort based on various stratifications and initial conditions. Pharmacoeconomic metrics (life years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained), were evaluated to quantify the benefits of specialized treatments and improved early detection of NSCLC. Simulations showed that the introduction of novel therapies for the advanced NSCLC sub-group increased median survival by 8.1 months (95 % CI: 5.9, 10.0), with corresponding gains of 2.9 months (95 % CI: 2.2, 3.6) in LYG and 1.65 months (95 % CI: 1.2, 2.0) in QALY. Scenarios representing improved detection of early cancer in the whole patient cohort, revealed up to 17.6 (95 % CI: 16.5, 19.0) and 15.7 months (95 % CI: 14.8, 16.6) increase in median survival, with respective gains of 6.2 months (95 % CI: 5.9, 6.4) and 5.2 months (95 % CI: 4.9, 5.4) in LYG and 6.6 months (95 % CI: 6.4, 6.7) and 6.0 months (95 % CI: 5.9, 6.2) in QALY for conventional and optimal treatment. This integrative modeling platform, aimed at characterizing cancer burden, allows to precisely quantify the cumulative benefits of introducing specialized therapies into the treatment schemes and survival prolongation upon early detection of the disease., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2024 The Authors.)

Introduction: In vivo T cell migration has been of interest to scientists for the past 60 years. T cell kinetics are important in the understanding of the immune response to infectious agents. More recently, adoptive T cell therapies have proven to be a most promising approach to treating a wide range of diseases, including autoimmune and cancer diseases, whereby the characterization of cellular kinetics represents an important step towards the prediction of therapeutic efficacy., Methods: Here, we developed a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that describes endogenous T cell homeostasis and the kinetics of exogenously administered T cells in mouse. Parameter calibration was performed using a nonlinear fixed-effects modeling approach based on published data on T cell kinetics and steady-state levels in different tissues of mice. The Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) method was used to perform a global sensitivity assessment. To estimate the impact of kinetic parameters on exogenously administered T cell dynamics, a local sensitivity analysis was conducted., Results: We simulated the model to analyze cellular kinetics following various T cell doses and frequencies of CCR7+ T cells in the population of infused lymphocytes. The model predicted the effects of T cell numbers and of population composition of infused T cells on the resultant concentration of T cells in various organs. For example, a higher percentage of CCR7+ T cells among exogenously administered T lymphocytes led to an augmented accumulation of T cells in the spleen. The model predicted a linear dependence of T cell dynamics on the dose of adoptively transferred T cells., Discussion: The mathematical model of T cell migration presented here can be integrated into a multi-scale model of the immune system and be used in a preclinical setting for predicting the distribution of genetically modified T lymphocytes in various organs, following adoptive T cell therapies., Competing Interests: Author KP is an employee and shareholder of Modeling & Simulation Decisions, FZ - LLC. Author GH is an employee of Biorchestra US Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be constructed as a potential conflict of interest. The author(s) declared that they were an editorial board member of Frontiers, at the time of submission. This had no impact on the peer review process and the final decision., (Copyright © 2024 Nikitich, Helmlinger, Peskov and Bocharov.)

GP40141 is a romiplostim biosimilar. A Phase 1 clinical trial was previously conducted in healthy volunteers to evaluate the pharmacodynamics (PD), pharmacokinetics (PK), and safety of GP40141 compared to the reference romiplostim (NCT05652595). Using noncompartmental analysis, the biosimilarity of PD end points was determined according to the classical criterion (0.8-1.25). PK end points were also in good agreement between GP40141 and the reference romiplostim; however, the confidence interval for the area under concentration-time curve from time 0 to the time of last measurement was slightly out of the bioequivalence range (0.91-1.29). Population PK/PD was used in the present study to characterize the individual PK and PD data of 56 healthy subjects in 2 cross-over periods of the Phase 1 clinical trial. Body weight and neutralizing antibodies to romiplostim were found to be important predictors of apparent volume of distribution and linear elimination constant, respectively. Within the framework of the conducted modeling, population estimates of PK/PD parameters were obtained, which were in agreement with literature data for the reference romiplostim. Additionally, values of intersubject variability, previously unreported for romiplostim in a healthy subject population, were derived. Covariate analysis, conducted during model development, as well as visual diagnostics and model-based simulations, demonstrated the absence of significant differences in PK and PD between GP40141 and romiplostim-ref., (© 2024, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.)

The research & development (R&D) of novel therapeutic agents for the treatment of autoimmune diseases is challenged by highly complex pathogenesis and multiple etiologies of these conditions. The number of targeted therapies available on the market is limited, whereas the prevalence of autoimmune conditions in the global population continues to rise. Mathematical modeling of biological systems is an essential tool which may be applied in support of decision-making across R&D drug programs to improve the probability of success in the development of novel medicines. Over the past decades, multiple models of autoimmune diseases have been developed. Models differ in the spectra of quantitative data used in their development and mathematical methods, as well as in the level of "mechanistic granularity" chosen to describe the underlying biology. Yet, all models strive towards the same goal: to quantitatively describe various aspects of the immune response. The aim of this review was to conduct a systematic review and analysis of mathematical models of autoimmune diseases focused on the mechanistic description of the immune system, to consolidate existing quantitative knowledge on autoimmune processes, and to outline potential directions of interest for future model-based analyses. Following a systematic literature review, 38 models describing the onset, progression, and/or the effect of treatment in 13 systemic and organ-specific autoimmune conditions were identified, most models developed for inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, and lupus (5 models each). ≥70% of the models were developed as nonlinear systems of ordinary differential equations, others - as partial differential equations, integro-differential equations, Boolean networks, or probabilistic models. Despite covering a relatively wide range of diseases, most models described the same components of the immune system, such as T-cell response, cytokine influence, or the involvement of macrophages in autoimmune processes. All models were thoroughly analyzed with an emphasis on assumptions, limitations, and their potential applications in the development of novel medicines., Competing Interests: Author GH was employed by the company Biorchestra Co., Ltd. Authors CL, KP, VS, and AV were employed by the company Modeling and Simulation Decisions FZ-LLC. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Ugolkov, Nikitich, Leon, Helmlinger, Peskov, Sokolov and Volkova.)

Background: The thymus plays a central role in shaping human immune function. A mechanistic, quantitative description of immune cell dynamics and thymic output under homeostatic conditions and various patho-physiological scenarios are of particular interest in drug development applications, e.g., in the identification of potential therapeutic targets and selection of lead drug candidates against infectious diseases., Methods: We here developed an integrative mathematical model of thymocyte dynamics in human. It incorporates mechanistic features of thymocyte homeostasis as well as spatial constraints of the thymus and considerations of age-dependent involution. All model parameter estimates were obtained based on published physiological data of thymocyte dynamics and thymus properties in mouse and human. We performed model sensitivity analyses to reveal potential therapeutic targets through an identification of processes critically affecting thymic function; we further explored differences in thymic function across healthy subjects, multiple sclerosis patients, and patients on fingolimod treatment., Results: We found thymic function to be most impacted by the egress, proliferation, differentiation and death rates of those thymocytes which are most differentiated. Model predictions also showed that the clinically observed decrease in relapse risk with age, in multiple sclerosis patients who would have discontinued fingolimod therapy, can be explained mechanistically by decreased thymic output with age. Moreover, we quantified the effects of fingolimod treatment duration on thymic output., Conclusions: In summary, the proposed model accurately describes, in mechanistic terms, thymic output as a function of age. It may be further used to perform predictive simulations of clinically relevant scenarios which combine specific patho-physiological conditions and pharmacological interventions of interest., Competing Interests: Author KP is an employee and shareholder of Modeling & Simulation Decisions FZ - LLC. Author GH is an employee of Biorchestra US, Inc. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. The authors declare that this study received funding from Modeling & Simulation Decisions FZ - LLC. The funder was not involved in the study design, collection, analysis, interpretation of data, the writing of this article or the decision to submit it for publication. The author(s) declared that they were an editorial board member of Frontiers, at the time of submission. This had no impact on the peer review process and the final decision., (Copyright © 2024 Kulesh, Peskov, Helmlinger and Bocharov.)

Aims: To develop a model-informed methodology for the optimization of the Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) composite endpoint, based on a model-based meta-analysis across anti-hypercholesterolemia trials of statin and anti-PCSK9 drugs., Methods and Results: Mixed-effects meta-regression modeling of stand-alone MACE outcomes was performed, with therapy type, population demographics, baseline and change over time in lipid biomarkers as predictors. Randomized clinical trials up to June 28, 2022, of either statins or anti-PCSK9 therapies were identified through a systematic review process in PubMed and ClinicalTrials.gov databases. In total, 54 studies (270,471 patients) were collected, reporting 15 different single cardiovascular events. Treatment-mediated decrease in low density lipoprotein cholesterol, baseline levels of remnant and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol as well as non-lipid population characteristics and type of therapy were identified as significant covariates for 10 of the 15 outcomes. The required sample size per composite 3- and 4-point MACE endpoint was calculated based on the estimated treatment effects in a population and frequencies of the incorporated events in the control group, trial duration, and uncertainty in model parameters., Conclusion: A quantitative tool was developed and used to benchmark different compositions of 3- and 4-point MACE for statins and anti-PCSK9 therapies, based on the minimum population size required to achieve statistical significance in relative risk reduction, following meta-regression modeling of the single MACE components. The approach we developed may be applied towards the optimization of the design of future trials in dyslipidemia disorders as well as in other therapeutic areas., Competing Interests: Authors AV, VS, KP were employed by the company Modeling and Simulation Decisions FZ—LLC. GH was employed by the company Biorchestra Co., Ltd. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (© 2024 Volkova, Shulgin, Helmlinger, Peskov and Sokolov.)

Assessment of drug-induced effects on the cardiovascular (CV) system remains a critical component of the drug discovery process enabling refinement of the therapeutic index. Predicting potential drug-related unintended CV effects in the preclinical stage is necessary for first-in-human dose selection and preclusion of adverse CV effects in the clinical stage. According to the current guidelines for small molecules, nonclinical CV safety assessment conducted via telemetry analyses should be included in the safety pharmacology core battery studies. However, the manual for quantitative evaluation of the CV safety signals in animals is available only for electrocardiogram parameters (i.e., QT interval assessment), not for hemodynamic parameters (i.e., heart rate, blood pressure, etc.). Various model-based approaches, including empirical pharmacokinetic-toxicodynamic analyses and systems pharmacology modeling could be used in the framework of telemetry data evaluation. In this tutorial, we provide a comprehensive workflow for the analysis of nonclinical CV safety on hemodynamic parameters with a sequential approach, highlight the challenges associated with the data, and propose respective solutions, complemented with a reproducible example. The work is aimed at helping researchers conduct model-based analyses of the CV safety in animals with subsequent translation of the effect to humans seamlessly and efficiently., (© 2023 The Authors. CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

Background: Cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) and its modified version (CAVI0) are promising non-invasive markers of arterial stiffness, extensively evaluated primarily in the Japanese population. In this work, we performed a model-based analysis of the association between different population characteristics and CAVI or CAVI0 values in healthy Russian subjects and propose a tool for calculating the range of reference values for both types of indices., Methods: The analysis was based on the data from 742 healthy volunteers (mean age 30.4 years; 73.45% men) collected from a multicenter observational study. Basic statistical analysis [analysis of variance, Pearson's correlation (r), significance tests] and multivariable linear regression were performed in R software (version 4.0.2). Tested covariates included age, sex, BMI, blood pressure, and heart rate (HR)., Results: No statistically significant difference between healthy men and women were observed for CAVI and CAVI0. In contrast, both indices were positively associated with age (r = 0.49 and r = 0.43, P < 0.001), however, with no clear distinction between subjects of 20-30 and 30-40 years old. Heart rate and blood pressure were also identified as statistically significant predictors following multiple linear regression modeling, but with marginal clinical significance. Finally, the algorithm for the calculation of the expected ranges of CAVI in healthy population was proposed, for a given age category, HR and pulse pressure (PP) values., Conclusions: We have evaluated the quantitative association between various population characteristics, CAVI, and CAVI0 values and established a method for estimating the subject-level reference CAVI and CAVI0 measurements., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Immuno-oncology is an emerging field in the treatment of oncological diseases, that is based on recruitment of the host immune system to attack the tumor. Radiation exposure may help to unlock the potential of the immune activating agents by enhancing the antigen release and presentation, attraction of immunocompetent cells to the inflammation site, and eliminating the tumor cells by phagocytosis, thereby leading to an overall enhancement of the immune response. Numerous preclinical studies in mouse models of glioma, murine melanoma, extracranial cancer, or colorectal cancer have contributed to determination of the optimal radiotherapy fractionation, as well as the radio- and immunotherapy sequencing strategies for maximizing the antitumor activity of the treatment regimen. At the same time, efficacy of combined radio- and immunotherapy has been actively investigated in clinical trials of metastatic melanoma, non-small-cell lung cancer and renal cell carcinoma. The present review summarizes the current advancements and challenges related to the aforementioned treatment approach., Competing Interests: Authors VV and KP were employed by company M&S Decisions LLC. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Voronova, Vislobokova, Mutig, Samsonov, Peskov, Sekacheva, Materenchuk, Bunyatyan and Lebedeva.)

Background: Abnormal branched-chained amino acids (BCAA) accumulation in cardiomyocytes is associated with cardiac remodeling in heart failure. Administration of branched-chain α-keto acid dehydrogenase (BCKD) kinase inhibitor BT2 has been shown to reduce cardiac BCAA levels and demonstrated positive effects on cardiac function in a preclinical setting. The current study is focused on evaluating the impact of BT2 on the systemic and cardiac levels of BCAA and their metabolites as well as activities of BCAA catabolic enzymes using a quantitative systems pharmacology model. Methods: The model is composed of an ordinary differential equation system characterizing BCAA consumption with food, disposal in the proteins, reversible branched-chain-amino-acid aminotransferase (BCAT)-mediated transamination to branched-chain keto-acids (BCKA), followed by BCKD-mediated oxidation. Activity of BCKD is regulated by the balance of BCKDK and protein phosphatase 2Cm (PP2Cm) activities, affected by BT2 treatment. Cardiac BCAA levels are assumed to directly affect left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Biochemical characteristics of the enzymes are taken from the public domains, while plasma and cardiac BCAA and BCKA levels in BT2 treated mice are used to inform the model parameters. Results: The model provides adequate reproduction of the experimental data and predicts synchronous BCAA responses in the systemic and cardiac space, dictated by rapid BCAA equilibration between the tissues. The model-based simulations indicate maximum possible effect of BT2 treatment on BCAA reduction to be 40% corresponding to 12% increase in LVEF. Model sensitivity analysis demonstrates strong impact of BCKDK and PP2Cm activities as well as total BCKD and co-substrate levels (glutamate, ketoglutarate and ATP) on BCAA and BCKA levels. Conclusion: Model based simulations confirms using of plasma measurements as a marker of cardiac BCAA changes under BCKDK inhibition. The proposed model can be used for optimization of preclinical study design for novel compounds targeting BCAA catabolism., Competing Interests: YM, MB, MW, MH, KH, and MS are employees of AstraZeneca; VV, VS AG, and KP are employed by M&S Decisions LLC and received research funding from AstraZeneca., (Copyright © 2022 Voronova, Sokolov, Morias, Boezelman, Wågberg, Henricsson, Hansson, Goltsov, Peskov and Sundqvist.)

Model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) is a quantitative approach that leverages published summary data along with internal data and can be applied to inform key drug development decisions, including the benefit-risk assessment of a treatment under investigation. These risk-benefit assessments may involve determining an optimal dose compared against historic external comparators of a particular disease indication. MBMA can provide a flexible framework for interpreting aggregated data from historic reference studies and therefore should be a standard tool for the model-informed drug development (MIDD) framework.In addition to pairwise and network meta-analyses, MBMA provides further contributions in the quantitative approaches with its ability to incorporate longitudinal data and the pharmacologic concept of dose-response relationship, as well as to combine individual- and summary-level data and routinely incorporate covariates in the analysis.A common application of MBMA is the selection of optimal dose and dosing regimen of the internal investigational molecule to evaluate external benchmarking and to support comparator selection. Two case studies provided examples in applications of MBMA in biologics (durvalumab + tremelimumab for safety) and small molecule (fenebrutinib for efficacy) to support drug development decision-making in two different but well-studied disease areas, i.e., oncology and rheumatoid arthritis, respectively.Important to the future directions of MBMA include additional recognition and engagement from drug development stakeholders for the MBMA approach, stronger collaboration between pharmacometrics and statistics, expanded data access, and the use of machine learning for database building. Timely, cost-effective, and successful application of MBMA should be part of providing an integrated view of MIDD., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which causes COVID-19, uses a viral surface spike protein for host cell entry and the human cell-surface transmembrane serine protease, TMPRSS2, to process the spike protein. Camostat mesylate, an orally available and clinically used serine protease inhibitor, inhibits TMPRSS2, supporting clinical trials to investigate its use in COVID-19. A one-compartment pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) model for camostat and the active metabolite FOY-251 was developed, incorporating TMPRSS2 reversible covalent inhibition by FOY-251, and empirical equations linking TMPRSS2 inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 cell entry. The model predicts that 95% inhibition of TMPRSS2 is required for 50% inhibition of viral entry efficiency. For camostat 200 mg dosed four times daily, 90% inhibition of TMPRSS2 is predicted to occur but with only about 40% viral entry inhibition. For 3-fold higher camostat dosing, marginal improvement of viral entry rate inhibition, up to 54%, is predicted. Because respiratory tract viral load may be associated with negative outcome, even modestly reducing viral entry and respiratory tract viral load may reduce disease progression. This modeling also supports medicinal chemistry approaches to enhancing PK/PD and potency of the camostat molecule. IMPORTANCE Strategies to repurpose already-approved drugs for the treatment of COVID-19 has been attractive since the beginning of the pandemic. Camostat mesylate, a serine protease inhibitor approved in Japan for the treatment of acute exacerbations of chronic pancreatitis, inhibits TMPRSS1, a host cell surface serine protease essential for SARS-CoV-2 viral entry. In vitro experiments provided data suggesting that camostat might be effective in the treatment of COVID-19. Multiple clinical trials were planned to test the hypothesis that camostat would be beneficial for treating COVID-19 (for example, clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04353284). The present work used a one-compartment pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) mathematical model for camostat and the active metabolite FOY-251, incorporating TMPRSS2 reversible covalent inhibition by FOY-251, and empirical equations linking TMPRSS2 inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 cell entry. This work is valuable to guide further development of camostat mesylate and possible medicinal chemistry derivatives for the treatment of COVID-19.

Clinical trials investigate treatment endpoints that usually include measurements of pharmacodynamic and efficacy biomarkers in early-phase studies and patient-reported outcomes as well as event risks or rates in late-phase studies. In recent years, a systematic trend in clinical trial data analytics and modeling has been observed, where retrospective data are integrated into a quantitative framework to prospectively support analyses of interim data and design of ongoing and future studies of novel therapeutics. Joint modeling is an advanced statistical methodology that allows for the investigation of clinical trial outcomes by quantifying the association between baseline and/or longitudinal biomarkers and event risk. Using an exemplar data set from non-small cell lung cancer studies, we propose and test a workflow for joint modeling. It allows a modeling scientist to comprehensively explore the data, build survival models, investigate goodness-of-fit, and subsequently perform outcome predictions using interim biomarker data from an ongoing study. The workflow illustrates a full process, from data exploration to predictive simulations, for selected multivariate linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models and software tools in an integrative and exhaustive manner., (© 2022 M&S Decisions LLC. CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

Background: Adenosine receptor type 2 (A 2A R) inhibitor, AZD4635, has been shown to reduce immunosuppressive adenosine effects within the tumor microenvironment (TME) and to enhance the efficacy of checkpoint inhibitors across various syngeneic models. This study aims at investigating anti-tumor activity of AZD4635 alone and in combination with an anti-PD-L1-specific antibody (anti-PD-L1 mAb) across various TME conditions and at identifying, via mathematical quantitative modeling, a therapeutic combination strategy to further improve treatment efficacy., Methods: The model is represented by a set of ordinary differential equations capturing: 1) antigen-dependent T cell migration into the tumor, with subsequent proliferation and differentiation into effector T cells (Teff), leading to tumor cell lysis; 2) downregulation of processes mediated by A 2A R or PD-L1, as well as other immunosuppressive mechanisms; 3) A 2A R and PD-L1 inhibition by, respectively, AZD4635 and anti-PD-L1 mAb. Tumor size dynamics data from CT26, MC38, and MCA205 syngeneic mice treated with vehicle, anti-PD-L1 mAb, AZD4635, or their combination were used to inform model parameters. Between-animal and between-study variabilities (BAV, BSV) in treatment efficacy were quantified using a non-linear mixed-effects methodology., Results: The model reproduced individual and cohort trends in tumor size dynamics for all considered treatment regimens and experiments. BSV and BAV were explained by variability in T cell-to-immunosuppressive cell (ISC) ratio; BSV was additionally driven by differences in intratumoral adenosine content across the syngeneic models. Model sensitivity analysis and model-based preclinical study simulations revealed therapeutic options enabling a potential increase in AZD4635-driven efficacy; e.g. , adoptive cell transfer or treatments affecting adenosine-independent immunosuppressive pathways., Conclusions: The proposed integrative modeling framework quantitatively characterized the mechanistic activity of AZD4635 and its potential added efficacy in therapy combinations, across various immune conditions prevailing in the TME. Such a model may enable further investigations, via simulations, of mechanisms of tumor resistance to treatment and of AZD4635 combination optimization strategies., Competing Interests: GH, LC, AB, RW, KS, WS, RK, GP, MM, HK and GM are employees of AstraZeneca; VV, YK and KP are employed by M&S Decisions LLC. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Voronova, Peskov, Kosinsky, Helmlinger, Chu, Borodovsky, Woessner, Sachsenmeier, Shao, Kumar, Pouliot, Merchant, Kimko and Mugundu.)

Background: Lung function, measured as forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV 1 ), and exacerbations are two endpoints evaluated in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) clinical trials. Joint analysis of these endpoints could potentially increase statistical power and enable assessment of efficacy in shorter and smaller clinical trials., Objective: To evaluate joint modelling as a tool for analyzing treatment effects in COPD clinical trials by quantifying the association between longitudinal improvements in FEV 1 and exacerbation risk reduction., Methods: A joint model of longitudinal FEV 1 and exacerbation risk was developed based on patient-level data from a Phase III clinical study in moderate-to-severe COPD (1740 patients), evaluating efficacy of fixed-dose combinations of a long-acting bronchodilator, formoterol, and an inhaled corticosteroid, budesonide. Two additional studies (1604 and 1042 patients) were used for external model validation and parameter re-estimation., Results: A significant (p<0.0001) association between FEV 1 and exacerbation risk was estimated, with an approximate 10% reduction in exacerbation risk per 100 mL improvement in FEV 1 , consistent across trials and treatment arms. The risk reduction associated with improvements in FEV 1 was relatively small compared to the overall exacerbation risk reduction for treatment arms including budesonide (10-15% per 160 µg budesonide). High baseline breathlessness score and previous history of exacerbations also influenced the risk of exacerbation., Conclusion: Joint modelling can be used to co-analyze longitudinal FEV 1 and exacerbation data in COPD clinical trials. The association between the endpoints was consistent and appeared unrelated to treatment mechanism, suggesting that improved lung function is indicative of an exacerbation risk reduction. The risk reduction associated with improved FEV 1 was, however, generally small and no major impact on exacerbation trial design can be expected based on FEV 1 alone. Further exploration with other longitudinal endpoints should be considered to further evaluate the use of joint modelling in analyzing COPD clinical trials., Competing Interests: KZ, OS, KP are employees of M&S Decisions LLC, a modelling consultancy contracted by AstraZeneca. RP, AJ, GH, UGE and UWH are all employees of AstraZeneca and may own shares. The authors report no other conflicts of interest in this work., (© 2021 Zhudenkov et al.)

Therapy optimization remains an important challenge in the treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We investigated tumor size (sum of the longest diameters (SLD) of target lesions) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as longitudinal biomarkers for survival prediction. Data sets from 335 patients with NSCLC from study NCT02087423 and 202 patients with NSCLC from study NCT01693562 of durvalumab were used for model qualification and validation, respectively. Nonlinear Bayesian joint models were designed to assess the impact of longitudinal measurements of SLD and NLR on patient subgrouping (by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors 1.1 criteria at 3 months after therapy start), long-term survival, and precision of survival predictions. Various validation scenarios were investigated. We determined a more distinct patient subgrouping and a substantial increase in the precision of survival estimates after the incorporation of longitudinal measurements. The highest performance was achieved using a multivariate SLD and NLR model, which enabled predictions of NSCLC clinical outcomes., (© 2020 The Authors CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

The kinetic model of Prostaglandin H Synthase-1 (PGHS-1) was developed to investigate its complex network kinetics and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) efficacy in different in vitro and in vivo conditions. To correctly describe the complex mechanism of PGHS-1 catalysis, we developed a microscopic approach to modelling of intricate network dynamics of 35 intraenzyme reactions among 24 intermediate states of the enzyme. The developed model quantitatively describes interconnection between cyclooxygenase and peroxidase enzyme activities; substrate (arachidonic acid, AA) and reducing cosubstrate competitive consumption; enzyme self-inactivation; autocatalytic role of AA; enzyme activation threshold; and synthesis of intermediate prostaglandin G 2 (PGG 2 ) and final prostaglandin H 2 (PGH 2 ) products under wide experimental conditions. In the paper, we provide a detailed description of the enzyme catalytic cycle, model calibration based on a series of in vitro kinetic data, and model validation using experimental data on the regulatory properties of PGHS-1. The validated model of PGHS-1 with a unified set of kinetic parameters is applicable for in silico screening and prediction of the inhibition effects of NSAIDs and their combination on the balance of pro-thrombotic (thromboxane) and anti-thrombotic (prostacyclin) prostaglandin biosynthesis in platelets and endothelial cells expressing PGHS-1.

Programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) and/or cytotoxic T lymphocyte-associated antigen 4 (CTLA-4) immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) treatments are associated with adverse events (AEs), which may be dependent on ICI dose. Applying a model-based meta-analysis to evaluate safety data from published clinical trials from 2005 to 2018, we analyzed the dose/exposure dependence of ICI treatment-related AE (trAE) and immune-mediated AE (imAE) rates. Unlike with PD-1 inhibitor monotherapy, CTLA-4 inhibitor monotherapy exhibited a dose/exposure dependence on most AE types evaluated. Furthermore, combination therapy with PD-1 inhibitor significantly strengthened the dependence of trAE and imAE rates on CTLA-4 inhibitor dose/exposure., Competing Interests: BS, YK, AO, and KP are employees of M&S Decisions LLC, Moscow, Russia, which received funding from AstraZeneca to conduct this research and analysis; LC, GM, SA, RP, GD, GK, and GH are all employees of AstraZeneca., (© 2020 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.)

The aim of this research was to differentiate dapagliflozin, empagliflozin, and canagliflozin based on their capacity to inhibit sodium-glucose cotransporter (SGLT) 1 and 2 in patients with type 2 diabetes using a previously developed quantitative systems pharmacology model of renal glucose filtration, reabsorption, and excretion. The analysis was based on pooled, mean study-level data on 24-hour urinary glucose excretion, average daily plasma glucose, and estimated glomerular filtration rate collected from phase I and II clinical trials of SGLT2 inhibitors. Variations in filtered glucose across clinical studies were shown to drive the apparent differences in the glucosuria dose-response relationships among the gliflozins. A normalized dose-response analysis demonstrated similarity of dapagliflozin and empagliflozin, but not canagliflozin. At approved doses, SGLT1 inhibition by canagliflozin but not dapagliflozin or empagliflozin contributed to ~ 10% of daily urinary glucose excretion., (© 2020 AstraZeneca. CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

Background & Aims: Disturbances of the enterohepatic circulation of bile acids (BAs) are seen in a number of clinically important conditions, including metabolic disorders, hepatic impairment, diarrhea, and gallstone disease. To facilitate the exploration of underlying pathogenic mechanisms, we developed a mathematical model built on quantitative physiological observations across different organs., Methods: The model consists of a set of kinetic equations describing the syntheses of cholic, chenodeoxycholic, and deoxycholic acids, as well as time-related changes of their respective free and conjugated forms in the systemic circulation, the hepatoportal region, and the gastrointestinal tract. The core structure of the model was adapted from previous modeling research and updated based on recent mechanistic insights, including farnesoid X receptor-mediated autoregulation of BA synthesis and selective transport mechanisms. The model was calibrated against existing data on BA distribution and feedback regulation., Results: According to model-based predictions, changes in intestinal motility, BA absorption, and biotransformation rates affected BA composition and distribution differently, as follows: (1) inhibition of transintestinal BA flux (eg, in patients with BA malabsorption) or acceleration of intestinal motility, followed by farnesoid X receptor down-regulation, was associated with colonic BA accumulation; (2) in contrast, modulation of the colonic absorption process was predicted to not affect the BA pool significantly; and (3) activation of ileal deconjugation (eg, in patents with small intestinal bacterial overgrowth) was associated with an increase in the BA pool, owing to higher ileal permeability of unconjugated BA species., Conclusions: This model will be useful in further studying how BA enterohepatic circulation modulation may be exploited for therapeutic benefits., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Aim: To develop a quantitative drug-disease systems model to investigate the paradox that sodium-glucose co-transporter (SGLT)2 is responsible for >80% of proximal tubule glucose reabsorption, yet SGLT2 inhibitor treatment results in only 30% to 50% less reabsorption in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM)., Materials and Methods: A physiologically based four-compartment model of renal glucose filtration, reabsorption and excretion via SGLT1 and SGLT2 was developed as a system of ordinary differential equations using R/IQRtools. SGLT2 inhibitor pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics were estimated from published concentration-time profiles in plasma and urine and from urinary glucose excretion (UGE) in healthy people and people with T2DM., Results: The final model showed that higher renal glucose reabsorption in people with T2DM versus healthy people was associated with 54% and 28% greater transporter capacity for SGLT1 and SGLT2, respectively. Additionally, the analysis showed that UGE is highly dependent on mean plasma glucose and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and that their consideration is critical for interpreting clinical UGE findings., Conclusions: Quantitative drug-disease system modelling revealed mechanistic differences in renal glucose reabsorption and UGE between healthy people and those with T2DM, and clearly showed that SGLT2 inhibition significantly increased glucose available to SGLT1 downstream in the tubule. Importantly, we found that the findings of lower than expected UGE with SGLT2 inhibition are explained by the shift to SGLT1, which recovered additional glucose (~30% of total)., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Since the discovery of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) as an attractive target in the treatment of hypercholesterolemia, multiple anti-PCSK9 therapeutic modalities have been pursued in drug development. The objective of this research is to set the stage for the quantitative benchmarking of two anti-PCSK9 pharmacological modality classes, monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and small interfering RNA (siRNA). To this end, we developed an integrative mathematical model of lipoprotein homeostasis describing the dynamic interplay between PCSK9, LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), VLDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C), apoB, lipoprotein a [Lp(a)], and triglycerides (TGs). We demonstrate that LDL-C decreased proportionally to PCSK9 reduction for both mAb and siRNA modalities. At marketed doses, however, treatment with mAbs resulted in an additional ∼20% LDL-C reduction compared with siRNA. We further used the model as an evaluation tool and determined that no quantitative differences were observed in HDL-C, Lp(a), TG, or apoB responses, suggesting that the disruption of PCSK9 synthesis would provide no additional effects on lipoprotein-related biomarkers in the patient segment investigated. Predictive model simulations further indicate that siRNA therapies may reach reductions in LDL-C levels comparable to those achieved with mAbs if the current threshold of 80% PCSK9 inhibition via siRNA could be overcome., (Copyright © 2019 Sokolov et al.)

The adaptive immune response is initiated in lymph nodes by contact between antigen-bearing dendritic cells (DCs) and antigen-specific T cells. A selected number of naïve T cells that recognize a specific antigen may proliferate into expanded clones, differentiate, and acquire an effector phenotype. Despite growing experimental knowledge, certain mechanistic aspects of T cell behavior in lymph nodes remain poorly understood. Computational modeling approaches may help in addressing such gaps. Here we introduce an agent-based model describing T cell movements and their interactions with DCs, leading to activation and expansion of cognate T cell clones, in a two-dimensional representation of the lymph node paracortex. The primary objective was to test the putative role of T cell chemotaxis toward DCs, and quantitatively assess the impact of chemotaxis with respect to T cell priming efficacy. Firstly, we evaluated whether chemotaxis of naïve T cells toward a nearest DC may accelerate the scanning process, by quantifying, through simulations, the number of unique T cell-DC contact events. We demonstrate that, in the presence of naïve T cell-to-DC chemoattraction, a higher total number of contacts occurs, as compared to a T cell random walk scenario. However, the forming swarm of naïve T cells, as these cells get attracted to the neighborhood of a DC, may then physically restrict access of additional T cells to the DC, leading to an actual decrease in the cumulative number of unique contacts between naïve T cells and DCs. Secondly, we investigated the potential role of chemotaxis in maintaining cognate T cell clone expansion. The time course of cognate T cells number in the system was used as a quantitative characteristic of the expansion. Model-based simulations indicate that inclusion of chemotaxis, which is selective for already activated (but not naïve) antigen-specific T cells, may strongly accelerate the time of immune response occurrence, which subsequently increases the overall amplitude of the T cell clone expansion process.

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP), a mechanistically oriented form of drug and disease modeling, seeks to address a diverse set of problems in the discovery and development of therapies. These problems bring a considerable amount of variability and uncertainty inherent in the nonclinical and clinical data. Likewise, the available modeling techniques and related software tools are manifold. Appropriately, the development, qualification, application, and impact of QSP models have been similarly varied. In this review, we describe the progressive maturation of a QSP modeling workflow: a necessary step for the efficient, reproducible development and qualification of QSP models, which themselves are highly iterative and evolutive. Furthermore, we describe three applications of QSP to impact drug development; one supporting new indications for an approved antidiabetic clinical asset through mechanistic hypothesis generation, one highlighting efficacy and safety differentiation within the sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor drug class, and one enabling rational selection of immuno-oncology drug combinations., (2019 Astrazeneca Company. CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American Society for Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics.)

Following the approval, in recent years, of the first immune checkpoint inhibitor, there has been an explosion in the development of immuno-modulating pharmacological modalities for the treatment of various cancers. From the discovery phase to late-stage clinical testing and regulatory approval, challenges in the development of immuno-oncology (IO) drugs are multi-fold and complex. In the preclinical setting, the multiplicity of potential drug targets around immune checkpoints, the growing list of immuno-modulatory molecular and cellular forces in the tumor microenvironment-with additional opportunities for IO drug targets, the emergence of exploratory biomarkers, and the unleashed potential of modality combinations all have necessitated the development of quantitative, mechanistically-oriented systems models which incorporate key biology and patho-physiology aspects of immuno-oncology and the pharmacokinetics of IO-modulating agents. In the clinical setting, the qualification of surrogate biomarkers predictive of IO treatment efficacy or outcome, and the corresponding optimization of IO trial design have become major challenges. This mini-review focuses on the evolution and state-of-the-art of quantitative systems models describing the tumor vs. immune system interplay, and their merging with quantitative pharmacology models of IO-modulating agents, as companion tools to support the addressing of these challenges.

This study aimed to quantify the effect of the immediate release (IR) of exenatide, a short-acting glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist (GLP-1RA), on gastric emptying rate (GER) and the glucose rate of appearance (GluRA), and evaluate the influence of drug characteristics and food-related factors on postprandial plasma glucose (PPG) stabilization under GLP-1RA treatment. A quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) approach was used, and the proposed model was based on data from published sources including: (1) GLP-1 and exenatide plasma concentration-time profiles; (2) GER estimates under placebo, GLP-1 or exenatide IR dosing; and (3) GluRA measurements upon food intake. According to the model's predictions, the recommended twice-daily 5- and 10-μg exenatide IR treatment is associated with GluRA flattening after morning and evening meals (48%-49%), whereas the midday GluRA peak is affected to a lesser degree (5%-30%) due to lower plasma drug concentrations. This effect was dose-dependent and influenced by food carbohydrate content, but not by the lag time between exenatide injection and meal ingestion. Hence, GER inhibition by exenatide IR represents an important additional mechanism of its effect on PPG., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Numerous oncology combination therapies involving modulators of the cancer immune cycle are being developed, yet quantitative simulation models predictive of outcome are lacking. We here present a model-based analysis of tumor size dynamics and immune markers, which integrates experimental data from multiple studies and provides a validated simulation framework predictive of biomarkers and anti-tumor response rates, for untested dosing sequences and schedules of combined radiation (RT) and anti PD-(L)1 therapies., Methods: A quantitative systems pharmacology model, which includes key elements of the cancer immunity cycle and the tumor microenvironment, tumor growth, as well as dose-exposure-target modulation features, was developed to reproduce experimental data of CT26 tumor size dynamics upon administration of RT and/or a pharmacological IO treatment such as an anti-PD-L1 agent. Variability in individual tumor size dynamics was taken into account using a mixed-effects model at the level of tumor-infiltrating T cell influx., Results: The model allowed for a detailed quantitative understanding of the synergistic kinetic effects underlying immune cell interactions as linked to tumor size modulation, under these treatments. The model showed that the ability of T cells to infiltrate tumor tissue is a primary determinant of variability in individual tumor size dynamics and tumor response. The model was further used as an in silico evaluation tool to quantitatively predict, prospectively, untested treatment combination schedules and sequences. We demonstrate that anti-PD-L1 administration prior to, or concurrently with RT reveal further synergistic effects, which, according to the model, may materialize due to more favorable dynamics between RT-induced immuno-modulation and reduced immuno-suppression of T cells through anti-PD-L1., Conclusions: This study provides quantitative mechanistic explanations of the links between RT and anti-tumor immune responses, and describes how optimized combinations and schedules of immunomodulation and radiation may tip the immune balance in favor of the host, sufficiently to lead to tumor shrinkage or rejection.

Modeling & simulation (M&S) methodologies are established quantitative tools, which have proven to be useful in supporting the research, development (R&D), regulatory approval, and marketing of novel therapeutics. Applications of M&S help design efficient studies and interpret their results in context of all available data and knowledge to enable effective decision-making during the R&D process. In this mini-review, we focus on two sets of modeling approaches: population-based models, which are well-established within the pharmaceutical industry today, and fall under the discipline of clinical pharmacometrics (PMX); and systems dynamics models, which encompass a range of models of (patho-)physiology amenable to pharmacological intervention, of signaling pathways in biology, and of substance distribution in the body (today known as physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models) - which today may be collectively referred to as quantitative systems pharmacology models (QSP). We next describe the convergence - or rather selected integration - of PMX and QSP approaches into 'middle-out' drug-disease models, which retain selected mechanistic aspects, while remaining parsimonious, fit-for-purpose, and able to address variability and the testing of covariates. We further propose development opportunities for drug-disease systems models, to increase their utility and applicability throughout the preclinical and clinical spectrum of pharmaceutical R&D., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Hyperglycemia is generally associated with oxidative stress, which plays a key role in diabetes-related complications. A complex, quantitative relationship has been established between glucose levels and oxidative stress, both in vitro and in vivo. For example, oxidative stress is known to persist after glucose normalization, a phenomenon described as metabolic memory. Also, uncontrolled glucose levels appear to be more detrimental to patients with diabetes (non-constant glucose levels) vs. patients with high, constant glucose levels. The objective of the current study was to delineate the mechanisms underlying such behaviors, using a mechanistic physiological systems modeling approach that captures and integrates essential underlying pathophysiological processes. The proposed model was based on a system of ordinary differential equations. It describes the interplay between reactive oxygen species production potential (ROS), ROS-induced cell alterations, and subsequent adaptation mechanisms. Model parameters were calibrated using different sources of experimental information, including ROS production in cell cultures exposed to various concentration profiles of constant and oscillating glucose levels. The model adequately reproduced the ROS excess generation after glucose normalization. Such behavior appeared to be driven by positive feedback regulations between ROS and ROS-induced cell alterations. The further oxidative stress-related detrimental effect as induced by unstable glucose levels can be explained by inability of cells to adapt to dynamic environment. Cell adaptation to instable high glucose declines during glucose normalization phases, and further glucose increase promotes similar or higher oxidative stress. In contrast, gradual ROS production potential decrease, driven by adaptation, is observed in cells exposed to constant high glucose., Competing Interests: AstraZeneca and M&S Decisions LLC did not provide any data, patients and products for this study. The research is unfunded and based on published information and data. This does not alter the authors' adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Background: Intestinal microbiota plays an important role in the human health. It is involved in the digestion and protects the host against external pathogens. Examination of the intestinal microbiome interactions is required for understanding of the community influence on host health. Studies of the microbiome can provide insight on methods of improving health, including specific clinical procedures for individual microbial community composition modification and microbiota correction by colonizing with new bacterial species or dietary changes., Methodology/principal Findings: In this work we report an agent-based model of interactions between two bacterial species and between species and the gut. The model is based on reactions describing bacterial fermentation of polysaccharides to acetate and propionate and fermentation of acetate to butyrate. Antibiotic treatment was chosen as disturbance factor and used to investigate stability of the system. System recovery after antibiotic treatment was analyzed as dependence on quantity of feedback interactions inside the community, therapy duration and amount of antibiotics. Bacterial species are known to mutate and acquire resistance to the antibiotics. The ability to mutate was considered to be a stochastic process, under this suggestion ratio of sensitive to resistant bacteria was calculated during antibiotic therapy and recovery., Conclusion/significance: The model confirms a hypothesis of feedbacks mechanisms necessity for providing functionality and stability of the system after disturbance. High fraction of bacterial community was shown to mutate during antibiotic treatment, though sensitive strains could become dominating after recovery. The recovery of sensitive strains is explained by fitness cost of the resistance. The model demonstrates not only quantitative dynamics of bacterial species, but also gives an ability to observe the emergent spatial structure and its alteration, depending on various feedback mechanisms. Visual version of the model shows that spatial structure is a key factor, which helps bacteria to survive and to adapt to changed environmental conditions.

Unlabelled: In the present study, we developed a detailed kinetic model of Escherichia coli central carbon metabolism. The main model assumptions were based on the results of metabolic and regulatory reconstruction of the system and thorough model verification with experimental data. The development and verification of the model included several stages, which allowed us to take into account both in vitro and in vivo experimental data and avoid the ambiguity that frequently occurs in detailed models of biochemical pathways. The choice of the level of detail for the mathematical description of enzymatic reaction rates and the evaluation of parameter values were based on available published data. Validation of the complete model of the metabolic pathway describing specific physiological states was based on fluxomics and metabolomics data. In particular, we developed a model that describes aerobic growth of E. coli in continuous culture with a limiting concentration of glucose. Such modification of the model was used to integrate experimental metabolomics data obtained in steady-state conditions for wild-type E. coli and genetically modified strains, e.g. knockout of the pyruvate kinase gene (pykA). Following analysis of the model behaviour, and comparison of the coincidence between predicted and experimental data, it was possible to investigate the functional and regulatory properties of E. coli central carbon metabolism. For example, a novel metabolic regulatory mechanism for 6-phosphogluconate dehydrogenase inhibition by phosphoenolpyruvate was hypothesized, and the flux ratios between the reactions catalysed by enzyme isoforms were predicted., Database: The mathematical model described here has been submitted to the JWS Online Cellular Systems Modelling Database and can be accessed at http://jjj.biochem.sun.ac.za/database/peskov/index.html, (© 2012 The Authors Journal compilation © 2012 FEBS.)

The metabolic networks are the most well-studied biochemical systems, with an abundance of in vitro and in vivo data available for quantitative estimation of its kinetic parameters. In this chapter, we present our approach to developing mathematical description of metabolic pathways. The model-based integration of reaction kinetics and the utilization of different types of experimental data including temporal dependencies have been described in detail. Software package DBSolve7 which allows us to develop kinetic model of the biochemical system and integrate experimental data has been presented.

A family of kinetic models has been developed that takes into account available experimental information on the regulation of ace operon expression in Escherichia coli. This has allowed us to study and analyze possible versions of regulation of the ace operon and to test their possibilities. Based on literature analysis, we found that there is an ambiguity of properties of IclR (main repressor of ace operon). The main aspect of this ambiguity are two different forms of IclR purified from E. coli K strain and different coeffector sets for IclR purified from E. coli K and B strains. It has been shown that the full-length form of IclR is physiologically relevant and that IclR truncation is a result of purification of the protein from E. coli K strains. We also found that the IclR protein purified from E. coli B strain carries two coeffector binding sites. Using model-developed levels of steady state aceBAK expression against physiological ranges of coeffectors, concentration has been predicted.

This paper presents a kinetic model of phosphofructokinase-1 from Escherichia coli. A complete catalytic cycle has been reconstructed based on available information on the oligomeric structure of the enzyme and kinetic mechanism of its monomer. Applying the generalization of the Monod-Wyman-Changeux approach proposed by Popova and Sel'kov(35-37) to the reconstructed catalytic cycle rate equation has been derived. Dependence of the reaction rate on pH, magnesium, and effectors has been taken into account. Kinetic parameters have been estimated via fitting the rate equation against experimentally measured dependencies of initial rate on substrates, products, effectors, and pH available from the literature. The model of phosphofructokinase-1 predicts (1) cooperativity of binding both fructose-6-phosphate and ATPMg(2-), (2) significant inhibition of the enzyme resulting from an increase in total concentration of ATP under the condition of fixed concentration of Mg(2+) ions, and (3) dual effect of ADP consisting of allosteric activation and product inhibition of the enzyme. Moreover, the model developed can be used in the kinetic modeling of biochemical pathways containing phosphofructokinase-1.

The rithral and hypocrenal (of small rapid streams) macrobenthos faunas of northern Greece, eastern Carpathians, montane Crimea, and northwestern Caucasus are comparatively analyzed based on original material. Peculiarities of the rheophile communities and faunas of each region and of the whole studied area are described. The area is provisionally divided into biogeographic unites based on rithral fauna; this classification is essentially different from those of other authors. The main faunistic border runs meridionally between Greece-Carpathians on one side and Caucasus-Crimea on the other. The present authors believe that the biogeographic variability of macrobenthos rithral faunas results from the position of regions containing rithron communities and from spatial ties between them. Three fundamental biogeographic zones, suggested to be ranked as subregions, are recognized in the West Palearctic: the Balkan-Alpine (West European), the Scandinavian-Ural (North European), and the Caucasian. All the data available fit the suggested scheme, which shows that this approach is of universal value to biogeographic analysis and to divisions of the rithral into biogeographic zones. The local-scale variability of rheophile macrobenthos fauna in the northwestern Caucasus is discussed. Significant faunistic similarity of territories comprising the studied area is shown, internal division into biogeographic zones is conducted, and the lowest scale border of the faunistic diversity of rheophile macrobenthos is established at about 100-150 km.

The influence of geographical position on taxonomical composition and structure of communities inhabited stony riffles is considered on a material from 79 small streams situated in four regions of Eastern Europe (Moscow region, Southern Ural, Northern Caucasus and Mountain Crimea), as well as on publishing data on Asia and Northern Ural regions. Litoreophil communities of mentioned regions include different but closely allied species with similar habits. Eight basic living forms of litoreophils are common practically everywhere irrespective of geographical position and taxonomical composition of the community. The average number of species in a sample is also constant and includes 13-14 species. Local relief and climate influence the abundance of living forms and species diversity.