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The first very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) detections at 870$\mu$m wavelength (345$\,$GHz frequency) are reported, achieving the highest diffraction-limited angular resolution yet obtained from the surface of the Earth, and the highest-frequency example of the VLBI technique to date. These include strong detections for multiple sources observed on inter-continental baselines between telescopes in Chile, Hawaii, and Spain, obtained during observations in October 2018. The longest-baseline detections approach 11$\,$G$\lambda$ corresponding to an angular resolution, or fringe spacing, of 19$\mu$as. The Allan deviation of the visibility phase at 870$\mu$m is comparable to that at 1.3$\,$mm on the relevant integration time scales between 2 and 100$\,$s. The detections confirm that the sensitivity and signal chain stability of stations in the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) array are suitable for VLBI observations at 870$\mu$m. Operation at this short wavelength, combined with anticipated enhancements of the EHT, will lead to a unique high angular resolution instrument for black hole studies, capable of resolving the event horizons of supermassive black holes in both space and time., Comment: Corresponding author: S. Doeleman

Recent developments in very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) have made it possible for the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) to resolve the innermost accretion flows of the largest supermassive black holes on the sky. The sparse nature of the EHT's $(u, v)$-coverage presents a challenge when attempting to resolve highly time-variable sources. We demonstrate that the changing (u, v)-coverage of the EHT can contain regions of time over the course of a single observation that facilitate dynamical imaging. These optimal time regions typically have projected baseline distributions that are approximately angularly isotropic and radially homogeneous. We derive a metric of coverage quality based on baseline isotropy and density that is capable of ranking array configurations by their ability to produce accurate dynamical reconstructions. We compare this metric to existing metrics in the literature and investigate their utility by performing dynamical reconstructions on synthetic data from simulated EHT observations of sources with simple orbital variability. We then use these results to make recommendations for imaging the 2017 EHT Sgr A* data set., Comment: 20 pages, 14 figures, published in ApJL (2022), uploaded for open access

The Event Horizon Telescope has produced resolved images of the supermassive black holes Sgr A* and M87*, which present the largest shadows on the sky. In the next decade, technological improvements and extensions to the array will enable access to a greater number of sources, unlocking studies of a larger population of supermassive black holes through direct imaging. In this paper, we identify 12 of the most promising sources beyond Sgr A* and M87* based on their angular size and millimeter flux density. For each of these sources, we make theoretical predictions for their observable properties by ray tracing general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models appropriately scaled to each target's mass, distance, and flux density. We predict that these sources would have somewhat higher Eddington ratios than M87*, which may result in larger optical and Faraday depths than previous EHT targets. Despite this, we find that visibility amplitude size constraints can plausibly recover masses within a factor of 2, although the unknown jet contribution remains a significant uncertainty. We find that the linearly polarized structure evolves substantially with Eddington ratio, with greater evolution at larger inclinations, complicating potential spin inferences for inclined sources. We discuss the importance of 345 GHz observations, milli-Jansky baseline sensitivity, and independent inclination constraints for future observations with upgrades to the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) through ground updates with the next-generation EHT (ngEHT) program and extensions to space through the Black Hole Explorer (BHEX)., Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, 1 table, submitted to ApJ

We present the Black Hole Explorer (BHEX), a mission that will produce the sharpest images in the history of astronomy by extending submillimeter Very-Long-Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) to space. BHEX will discover and measure the bright and narrow "photon ring" that is predicted to exist in images of black holes, produced from light that has orbited the black hole before escaping. This discovery will expose universal features of a black hole's spacetime that are distinct from the complex astrophysics of the emitting plasma, allowing the first direct measurements of a supermassive black hole's spin. In addition to studying the properties of the nearby supermassive black holes M87* and Sgr A*, BHEX will measure the properties of dozens of additional supermassive black holes, providing crucial insights into the processes that drive their creation and growth. BHEX will also connect these supermassive black holes to their relativistic jets, elucidating the power source for the brightest and most efficient engines in the universe. BHEX will address fundamental open questions in the physics and astrophysics of black holes that cannot be answered without submillimeter space VLBI. The mission is enabled by recent technological breakthroughs, including the development of ultra-high-speed downlink using laser communications, and it leverages billions of dollars of existing ground infrastructure. We present the motivation for BHEX, its science goals and associated requirements, and the pathway to launch within the next decade., Comment: Proceedings for SPIE Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation

We present a baseline science operations plan for the Black Hole Explorer (BHEX), a space mission concept aiming to confirm the existence of the predicted sharp ``photon ring" resulting from strongly lensed photon trajectories around black holes, as predicted by general relativity, and to measure its size and shape to determine the black hole's spin. BHEX will co-observe with a ground-based very long baseline interferometric (VLBI) array at high-frequency radio wavelengths, providing unprecedented high resolution with the extension to space that will enable photon ring detection and studies of active galactic nuclei. Science operations require a simultaneous coordination between BHEX and a ground array of large and small radio apertures to provide opportunities for surveys and imaging of radio sources, while coordination with a growing network of optical downlink terminals provides the data rates necessary to build sensitivity on long baselines to space. Here we outline the concept of operations for the hybrid observatory, the available observing modes, the observation planning process, and data delivery to achieve the mission goals and meet mission requirements., Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, submitted to SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation (AS24)

Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) provides the highest-resolution images in astronomy. The sharpest resolution is nominally achieved at the highest frequencies, but as the observing frequency increases so too does the atmospheric contribution to the system noise, degrading the sensitivity of the array and hampering detection. In this paper, we explore the limits of high-frequency VLBI observations using ngehtsim, a new tool for generating realistic synthetic data. ngehtsim uses detailed historical atmospheric models to simulate observing conditions, and it employs heuristic visibility detection criteria that emulate single- and multi-frequency VLBI calibration strategies. We demonstrate the fidelity of ngehtsim's predictions using a comparison with existing 230 GHz data taken by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), and we simulate the expected performance of EHT observations at 345 GHz. Though the EHT achieves a nearly 100% detection rate at 230 GHz, our simulations indicate that it should expect substantially poorer performance at 345 GHz; in particular, observations of M87 at 345 GHz are predicted to achieve detection rates of $\lesssim$20% that may preclude imaging. Increasing the array sensitivity through wider bandwidths and/or longer integration times -- as enabled through, e.g., the simultaneous multi-frequency upgrades envisioned for the next-generation EHT -- can improve the 345 GHz prospects and yield detection levels that are comparable to those at 230 GHz. M87 and Sgr A* observations carried out in the atmospheric window around 460 GHz could expect to regularly achieve multiple detections on long baselines, but analogous observations at 690 and 875 GHz consistently obtain almost no detections at all., Comment: 29 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration recently published the first images of the supermassive black holes in the cores of the Messier 87 and Milky Way galaxies. These observations have provided a new means to study supermassive black holes and probe physical processes occurring in the strong-field regime. We review the prospects of future observations and theoretical studies of supermassive black hole systems with the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT), which will greatly enhance the capabilities of the existing EHT array. These enhancements will open up several previously inaccessible avenues of investigation, thereby providing important new insights into the properties of supermassive black holes and their environments. This review describes the current state of knowledge for five key science cases, summarising the unique challenges and opportunities for fundamental physics investigations that the ngEHT will enable., Comment: To be submitted to journal. Comments are welcome

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observed in 2017 the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), at a frequency of 228.1 GHz ($\lambda$=1.3 mm). The fundamental physics tests that even a single pulsar orbiting Sgr A* would enable motivate searching for pulsars in EHT datasets. The high observing frequency means that pulsars - which typically exhibit steep emission spectra - are expected to be very faint. However, it also negates pulse scattering, an effect that could hinder pulsar detections in the Galactic Center. Additionally, magnetars or a secondary inverse Compton emission could be stronger at millimeter wavelengths than at lower frequencies. We present a search for pulsars close to Sgr A* using the data from the three most-sensitive stations in the EHT 2017 campaign: the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array, the Large Millimeter Telescope and the IRAM 30 m Telescope. We apply three detection methods based on Fourier-domain analysis, the Fast-Folding-Algorithm and single pulse search targeting both pulsars and burst-like transient emission; using the simultaneity of the observations to confirm potential candidates. No new pulsars or significant bursts were found. Being the first pulsar search ever carried out at such high radio frequencies, we detail our analysis methods and give a detailed estimation of the sensitivity of the search. We conclude that the EHT 2017 observations are only sensitive to a small fraction ($\lesssim$2.2%) of the pulsars that may exist close to Sgr A*, motivating further searches for fainter pulsars in the region., Comment: 33 pages, 7 figures, 6 Tables. Accepted for publication in ApJ

We describe the process to design, architect, and implement a transformative enhancement of the Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT). This program - the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT) - will form a networked global array of radio dishes capable of making high-fidelity real-time movies of supermassive black holes (SMBH) and their emanating jets. This builds upon the EHT principally by deploying additional modest-diameter dishes to optimized geographic locations to enhance the current global mm/submm wavelength Very Long Baseline Interferometric (VLBI) array, which has, to date, utilized mostly pre-existing radio telescopes. The ngEHT program further focuses on observing at three frequencies simultaneously for increased sensitivity and Fourier spatial frequency coverage. Here, the concept, science goals, design considerations, station siting and instrument prototyping are discussed, and a preliminary reference array to be implemented in phases is described., Comment: Submitted to the journal Galaxies

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has led to the first images of a supermassive black hole, revealing the central compact objects in the elliptical galaxy M87 and the Milky Way. Proposed upgrades to this array through the next-generation EHT (ngEHT) program would sharply improve the angular resolution, dynamic range, and temporal coverage of the existing EHT observations. These improvements will uniquely enable a wealth of transformative new discoveries related to black hole science, extending from event-horizon-scale studies of strong gravity to studies of explosive transients to the cosmological growth and influence of supermassive black holes. Here, we present the key science goals for the ngEHT and their associated instrument requirements, both of which have been formulated through a multi-year international effort involving hundreds of scientists worldwide., Comment: 32 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in a special issue of Galaxies on the ngEHT (https://www.mdpi.com/journal/galaxies/special_issues/ngEHT_blackholes)

Interpretation of resolved polarized images of black holes by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) requires predictions of the polarized emission observable by an Earth-based instrument for a particular model of the black hole accretion system. Such predictions are generated by general relativistic radiative transfer (GRRT) codes, which integrate the equations of polarized radiative transfer in curved spacetime. A selection of ray-tracing GRRT codes used within the EHT collaboration is evaluated for accuracy and consistency in producing a selection of test images, demonstrating that the various methods and implementations of radiative transfer calculations are highly consistent. When imaging an analytic accretion model, we find that all codes produce images similar within a pixel-wise normalized mean squared error (NMSE) of 0.012 in the worst case. When imaging a snapshot from a cell-based magnetohydrodynamic simulation, we find all test images to be similar within NMSEs of 0.02, 0.04, 0.04, and 0.12 in Stokes I, Q, U , and V respectively. We additionally find the values of several image metrics relevant to published EHT results to be in agreement to much better precision than measurement uncertainties., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

We present a case for significantly enhancing the utility and efficiency of the ngEHT by incorporating an additional 86 GHz observing band. In contrast to 230 or 345 GHz, weather conditions at the ngEHT sites are reliably good enough for 86 GHz to enable year-round observations. Multi-frequency imaging that incorporates 86 GHz observations would sufficiently augment the ($u,v$) coverage at 230 and 345 GHz to permit detection of the M87 jet structure without requiring EHT stations to join the array. The general calibration and sensitivity of the ngEHT would also be enhanced by leveraging frequency phase transfer techniques, whereby simultaneous observations at 86 GHz and higher-frequency bands have the potential to increase the effective coherence times from a few seconds to tens of minutes. When observation at the higher frequencies is not possible, there are opportunities for standalone 86 GHz science, such as studies of black hole jets and spectral lines. Finally, the addition of 86 GHz capabilities to the ngEHT would enable it to integrate into a community of other VLBI facilities $-$ such as the GMVA and ngVLA $-$ that are expected to operate at 86 GHz but not at the higher ngEHT observing frequencies., Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures

We report on the observations of the quasar NRAO 530 with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) on 2017 April 5-7, when NRAO 530 was used as a calibrator for the EHT observations of Sagittarius A*. At z=0.902 this is the most distant object imaged by the EHT so far. We reconstruct the first images of the source at 230 GHz, at an unprecedented angular resolution of $\sim$ 20 $\mu$as, both in total intensity and in linear polarization. We do not detect source variability, allowing us to represent the whole data set with static images. The images reveal a bright feature located on the southern end of the jet, which we associate with the core. The feature is linearly polarized, with a fractional polarization of $\sim$5-8% and has a sub-structure consisting of two components. Their observed brightness temperature suggests that the energy density of the jet is dominated by the magnetic field. The jet extends over 60 $\mu$as along a position angle PA$\sim -$28$^\circ$. It includes two features with orthogonal directions of polarization (electric vector position angle, EVPA), parallel and perpendicular to the jet axis, consistent with a helical structure of the magnetic field in the jet. The outermost feature has a particularly high degree of linear polarization, suggestive of a nearly uniform magnetic field. Future EHT observations will probe the variability of the jet structure on ${\mu}$as scales, while simultaneous multi-wavelength monitoring will provide insight into the high energy emission origin.

We present the results of an ALMA survey to identify 183 GHz H$_2$O maser emission from AGN already known to host 22 GHz megamaser systems. Out of 20 sources observed, we detect significant 183 GHz maser emission from 13; this survey thus increases the number of AGN known to host (sub)millimeter megamasers by a factor of 5. We find that the 183 GHz emission is systematically fainter than the 22 GHz emission from the same targets, with typical flux densities being roughly an order of magnitude lower at 183 GHz than at 22 GHz. However, the isotropic luminosities of the detected 183 GHz sources are comparable to their 22 GHz values. For two of our sources -- ESO 269-G012 and the Circinus galaxy -- we detect rich 183 GHz spectral structure containing multiple line complexes. The 183 GHz spectrum of ESO 269-G012 exhibits the triple-peaked structure characteristic of an edge-on AGN disk system. The Circinus galaxy contains the strongest 183 GHz emission detected in our sample, peaking at a flux density of nearly 5 Jy. The high signal-to-noise ratios achieved by these strong lines enable a coarse mapping of the 183 GHz maser system, in which the masers appear to be distributed similarly to those seen in VLBI maps of the 22 GHz system in the same galaxy and may be tracing the circumnuclear accretion disk at larger orbital radii than are occupied by the 22 GHz masers. This newly identified population of AGN disk megamasers presents a motivation for developing VLBI capabilities at 183 GHz., Comment: 23 pages, 8 figures, submitted to ApJ

We present estimates for the number of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) for which the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT) can identify the black hole ``shadow,'' along with estimates for how many black hole masses and spins the ngEHT can expect to constrain using measurements of horizon-resolved emission structure. Building on prior theoretical studies of SMBH accretion flows and analyses carried out by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) collaboration, we construct a simple geometric model for the polarized emission structure around a black hole, and we associate parameters of this model with the three physical quantities of interest. We generate a large number of realistic synthetic ngEHT datasets across different assumed source sizes and flux densities, and we estimate the precision with which our defined proxies for physical parameters could be measured from these datasets. Under April weather conditions and using an observing frequency of 230~GHz, we predict that a ``Phase 1'' ngEHT can potentially measure $\sim$50 black hole masses, $\sim$30 black hole spins, and $\sim$7 black hole shadows across the entire sky., Comment: accepted for publication in the ngEHT special issue of Galaxies

General relativity predicts that images of optically thin accretion flows around black holes should generically have a ``photon ring,'' composed of a series of increasingly sharp subrings that correspond to increasingly strongly lensed emission near the black hole. Because the effects of lensing are determined by the spacetime curvature, the photon ring provides a pathway to precise measurements of the black hole properties and tests of the Kerr metric. We explore the prospects for detecting and measuring the photon ring using very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) and the next generation EHT (ngEHT). We present a series of tests using idealized self-fits to simple geometrical models and show that the EHT observations in 2017 and 2022 lack the angular resolution and sensitivity to detect the photon ring, while the improved coverage and angular resolution of ngEHT at 230 GHz and 345 GHz is sufficient for these models. We then analyze detection prospects using more realistic images from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations by applying ``hybrid imaging,'' which simultaneously models two components: a flexible raster image (to capture the direct emission) and a ring component. Using the Bayesian VLBI modeling package \comrade, we show that the results of hybrid imaging must be interpreted with extreme caution for both photon ring detection and measurement -- hybrid imaging readily produces false positives for a photon ring, and its ring measurements do not directly correspond to the properties of the photon ring., Comment: submission to ngEHT galaxy special issue

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has produced images of the plasma flow around the supermassive black holes in Sgr A* and M87* with a resolution comparable to the projected size of their event horizons. Observations with the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT) will have significantly improved Fourier plane coverage and will be conducted at multiple frequency bands (86, 230, and 345 GHz), each with a wide bandwidth. At these frequencies, both Sgr A* and M87* transition from optically thin to optically thick. Resolved spectral index maps in the near-horizon and jet-launching regions of these supermassive black hole sources can constrain properties of the emitting plasma that are degenerate in single-frequency images. In addition, combining information from data obtained at multiple frequencies is a powerful tool for interferometric image reconstruction, since gaps in spatial scales in single-frequency observations can be filled in with information from other frequencies. Here we present a new method of simultaneously reconstructing interferometric images at multiple frequencies along with their spectral index maps. The method is based on existing Regularized Maximum Likelihood (RML) methods commonly used for EHT imaging and is implemented in the eht-imaging Python software library. We show results of this method on simulated ngEHT data sets as well as on real data from the VLBA and ALMA. These examples demonstrate that simultaneous RML multi-frequency image reconstruction produces higher-quality and more scientifically useful results than is possible from combining independent image reconstructions at each frequency., Comment: 25 pages, 15 figures. Accepted to ApJ

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has produced images of two supermassive black holes, Messier~87* (M 87*) and Sagittarius~A* (Sgr A*). The EHT collaboration used these images to indirectly constrain black hole parameters by calibrating measurements of the sky-plane emission morphology to images of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations. Here, we develop a model for directly constraining the black hole mass, spin, and inclination through signatures of lensing, redshift, and frame dragging, while simultaneously marginalizing over the unknown accretion and emission properties. By assuming optically thin, axisymmetric, equatorial emission near the black hole, our model gains orders of magnitude in speed over similar approaches that require radiative transfer. Using 2017 EHT M 87* baseline coverage, we use fits of the model to itself to show that the data are insufficient to demonstrate existence of the photon ring. We then survey time-averaged GRMHD simulations fitting EHT-like data, and find that our model is best-suited to fitting magnetically arrested disks, which are the favored class of simulations for both M 87* and Sgr A*. For these simulations, the best-fit model parameters are within ${\sim}10\%$ of the true mass and within ${\sim}10^\circ$ for inclination. With 2017 EHT coverage and 1\% fractional uncertainty on amplitudes, spin is unconstrained. Accurate inference of spin axis position angle depends strongly on spin and electron temperature. Our results show the promise of directly constraining black hole spacetimes with interferometric data, but they also show that nearly identical images permit large differences in black hole properties, highlighting degeneracies between the plasma properties, spacetime, and most crucially, the unknown emission geometry when studying lensed accretion flow images at a single frequency., Comment: Accepted to ApJ, 16 pages, 10 figures

We report measurements of the gravitationally lensed secondary image -- the first in an infinite series of so-called "photon rings" -- around the supermassive black hole M87* via simultaneous modeling and imaging of the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The inferred ring size remains constant across the seven days of the 2017 EHT observing campaign and is consistent with theoretical expectations, providing clear evidence that such measurements probe spacetime and a striking confirmation of the models underlying the first set of EHT results. The residual diffuse emission evolves on timescales comparable to one week. We are able to detect with high significance a southwestern extension consistent with that expected from the base of a jet that is rapidly rotating in the clockwise direction. This result adds further support to the identification of the jet in M87* with a black hole spin-driven outflow, launched via the Blandford-Znajek process. We present three revised estimates for the mass of M87* based on identifying the modeled thin ring component with the bright ringlike features seen in simulated images, one of which is only weakly sensitive to the astrophysics of the emission region. All three estimates agree with each other and previously reported values. Our strongest mass constraint combines information from both the ring and the diffuse emission region, which together imply a mass-to-distance ratio of $4.20^{+0.12}_{-0.06}~\mu{\rm as}$ and a corresponding black hole mass of $(7.13\pm0.39)\times10^9M_\odot$, where the error on the latter is now dominated by the systematic uncertainty arising from the uncertain distance to M87*.

Generating images from very long baseline interferometric observations poses a difficult, and generally not unique, inversion problem. This problem is simplified by the introduction of constraints, some generic (e.g., positivity of the intensity) and others motivated by physical considerations (e.g., smoothness, instrument resolution). It is further complicated by the need to simultaneously address instrumental systematic uncertainties and sparse coverage in the u-v plane. We report a new Bayesian image reconstruction technique in the parameter estimation framework Themis that has been developed for the Event Horizon Telescope. This has two key features: first, the full Bayesian treatment of the image reconstruction makes it possible to generate a full posterior for the images, permitting a rigorous and quantitative investigation into the statistical significance of image features. Second, it is possible to seamlessly incorporate directly modeled features simultaneously with image reconstruction. We demonstrate this second capability by incorporating a narrow, slashed ring in reconstructions of simulated M87 data in an attempt to detect and characterize the photon ring. We show that it is possible to obtain high-fidelity photon ring sizes, enabling mass measurements with accuracies of 2%-5% that are essentially insensitive to astrophysical uncertainties, and creating opportunities for precision tests of general relativity.

The blazar J1924-2914 is a primary Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) calibrator for the Galactic Center's black hole Sagittarius A*. Here we present the first total and linearly polarized intensity images of this source obtained with the unprecedented 20 $\mu$as resolution of the EHT. J1924-2914 is a very compact flat-spectrum radio source with strong optical variability and polarization. In April 2017 the source was observed quasi-simultaneously with the EHT (April 5-11), the Global Millimeter VLBI Array (April 3), and the Very Long Baseline Array (April 28), giving a novel view of the source at four observing frequencies, 230, 86, 8.7, and 2.3 GHz. These observations probe jet properties from the subparsec to 100-parsec scales. We combine the multi-frequency images of J1924-2914 to study the source morphology. We find that the jet exhibits a characteristic bending, with a gradual clockwise rotation of the jet projected position angle of about 90 degrees between 2.3 and 230 GHz. Linearly polarized intensity images of J1924-2914 with the extremely fine resolution of the EHT provide evidence for ordered toroidal magnetic fields in the blazar compact core.

In this paper we will list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, also taking into account the current discordances between the different cosmological probes, such as the disagreement in the value of the Hubble constant $H_0$, the $\sigma_8$--$S_8$ tension, and other less statistically significant anomalies. While these discordances can still be in part the result of systematic errors, their persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the necessity for new physics or generalisations beyond the standard model. In this paper, we focus on the $5.0\,\sigma$ tension between the {\it Planck} CMB estimate of the Hubble constant $H_0$ and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the $H_0$ evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we list a few interesting new physics models that could alleviate this tension and discuss how the next decade's experiments will be crucial. Moreover, we focus on the tension of the {\it Planck} CMB data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density $\Omega_m$, and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure ($\sigma_8,f\sigma_8$). We list a few interesting models proposed for alleviating this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit a full array of data with a single model and not just one parameter at a time. Additionally, we present a wide range of other less discussed anomalies at a statistical significance level lower than the $H_0$--$S_8$ tensions which may also constitute hints towards new physics, and we discuss possible generic theoretical approaches that can collectively explain the non-standard nature of these signals.[Abridged], Comment: Contribution to Snowmass 2021. 224 pages, 27 figures. Accepted for publication in JHEAp

Very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations of active galactic nuclei at millimeter wavelengths have the power to reveal the launching and initial collimation region of extragalactic radio jets, down to $10-100$ gravitational radii ($r_g=GM/c^2$) scales in nearby sources. Centaurus A is the closest radio-loud source to Earth. It bridges the gap in mass and accretion rate between the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in Messier 87 and our galactic center. A large southern declination of $-43^{\circ}$ has however prevented VLBI imaging of Centaurus A below ${\lambda}1$cm thus far. Here, we show the millimeter VLBI image of the source, which we obtained with the Event Horizon Telescope at $228$GHz. Compared to previous observations, we image Centaurus A's jet at a tenfold higher frequency and sixteen times sharper resolution and thereby probe sub-lightday structures. We reveal a highly-collimated, asymmetrically edge-brightened jet as well as the fainter counterjet. We find that Centaurus A's source structure resembles the jet in Messier 87 on ${\sim}500r_g$ scales remarkably well. Furthermore, we identify the location of Centaurus A's SMBH with respect to its resolved jet core at ${\lambda}1.3$mm and conclude that the source's event horizon shadow should be visible at THz frequencies. This location further supports the universal scale invariance of black holes over a wide range of masses., Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Nature Astronomy. The final authenticated version is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-021-01417-w

The black-hole images obtained with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) are expected to be variable at the dynamical timescale near their horizons. For the black hole at the center of the M87 galaxy, this timescale (5-61 days) is comparable to the 6-day extent of the 2017 EHT observations. Closure phases along baseline triangles are robust interferometric observables that are sensitive to the expected structural changes of the images but are free of station-based atmospheric and instrumental errors. We explored the day-to-day variability in closure phase measurements on all six linearly independent non-trivial baseline triangles that can be formed from the 2017 observations. We showed that three triangles exhibit very low day-to-day variability, with a dispersion of $\sim3-5^\circ$. The only triangles that exhibit substantially higher variability ($\sim90-180^\circ$) are the ones with baselines that cross visibility amplitude minima on the $u-v$ plane, as expected from theoretical modeling. We used two sets of General Relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations to explore the dependence of the predicted variability on various black-hole and accretion-flow parameters. We found that changing the magnetic field configuration, electron temperature model, or black-hole spin has a marginal effect on the model consistency with the observed level of variability. On the other hand, the most discriminating image characteristic of models is the fractional width of the bright ring of emission. Models that best reproduce the observed small level of variability are characterized by thin ring-like images with structures dominated by gravitational lensing effects and thus least affected by turbulence in the accreting plasmas., Comment: Accepted for Publication in ApJ

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) recently released the first horizon-scale images of the black hole in M87. Combined with other astronomical data, these images constrain the mass and spin of the hole as well as the accretion rate and magnetic flux trapped on the hole. An important question for the EHT is how well key parameters, such as trapped magnetic flux and the associated disk models, can be extracted from present and future EHT VLBI data products. The process of modeling visibilities and analyzing them is complicated by the fact that the data are sparsely sampled in the Fourier domain while most of the theory/simulation is constructed in the image domain. Here we propose a data-driven approach to analyze complex visibilities and closure quantities for radio interferometric data with neural networks. Using mock interferometric data, we show that our neural networks are able to infer the accretion state as either high magnetic flux (MAD) or low magnetic flux (SANE), suggesting that it is possible to perform parameter extraction directly in the visibility domain without image reconstruction. We have applied VLBInet to real M87 EHT data taken on four different days in 2017 (April 5, 6, 10, 11), and our neural networks give a score prediction 0.52, 0.4, 0.43, 0.76 for each day, with an average score 0.53, which shows no significant indication for the data to lean toward either the MAD or SANE state., Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures

We present estimates for the number of shadow-resolved supermassive black hole (SMBH) systems that can be detected using radio interferometers, as a function of angular resolution, flux density sensitivity, and observing frequency. Accounting for the distribution of SMBHs across mass, redshift, and accretion rate, we use a new semi-analytic spectral energy distribution model to derive the number of SMBHs with detectable and optically thin horizon-scale emission. We demonstrate that (sub)millimeter interferometric observations with ${\sim}0.1$ $\mu$as resolution and ${\sim}1$ $\mu$Jy sensitivity could access ${>}10^6$ SMBH shadows. We then further decompose the shadow source counts into the number of black holes for which we could expect to observe the first- and second-order lensed photon rings. Accessing the bulk population of first-order photon rings requires ${\lesssim}2$ $\mu$as resolution and ${\lesssim}0.5$ mJy sensitivity, while doing the same for second-order photon rings requires ${\lesssim}0.1$ $\mu$as resolution and ${\lesssim}5$ $\mu$Jy sensitivity. Our model predicts that with modest improvements to sensitivity, as many as $\sim$5 additional horizon-resolved sources should become accessible to the current Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), while a next-generation EHT observing at 345 GHz should have access to ${\sim}$3 times as many sources. More generally, our results can help guide enhancements of current arrays and specifications for future interferometric experiments that aim to spatially resolve a large population of SMBH shadows or higher-order photon rings., Comment: 37 pages, 18 figures, published in ApJ

The direct detection of a bright, ring-like structure in horizon-resolving images of M87* by the Event Horizon Telescope is a striking validation of general relativity. The angular size and shape of the ring is a degenerate measure of the location of the emission region, mass, and spin of the black hole. However, we show that the observation of multiple rings, corresponding to the low-order photon rings, can break this degeneracy and produce mass and spin measurements independent of the shape of the rings. We describe two potential experiments that would measure the spin. In the first, observations of the direct emission and $n=1$ photon ring are made at multiple epochs with different emission locations. This method is conceptually similar to spacetime constraints that arise from variable structures (or hot spots) in that it breaks the near-perfect degeneracy between emission location, mass, and spin for polar observers using temporal variability. In the second, observations of the direct emission, $n=1$ and $n=2$ photon rings are made during a single epoch. For both schemes, additional observations comprise a test of general relativity. Thus, comparisons of Event Horizon Telescope observations in 2017 and 2018 may be capable of producing the first horizon-scale spin estimates of M87* inferred from strong lensing alone. Additional observation campaigns from future high-frequency, Earth-sized and space-based radio interferometers can produce high-precision tests of general relativity., Comment: Submitted to ApJ, 16 pages, 14 figures

Our understanding of strong gravity near supermassive compact objects has recently improved thanks to the measurements made by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT). We use here the M87* shadow size to infer constraints on the physical charges of a large variety of nonrotating or rotating black holes. For example, we show that the quality of the measurements is already sufficient to rule out that M87* is a highly charged dilaton black hole. Similarly, when considering black holes with two physical and independent charges, we are able to exclude considerable regions of the space of parameters for the doubly-charged dilaton and the Sen black holes., Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, published in PRD on May 19

The unique challenges associated with imaging a black hole motivated the development of new computational imaging algorithms. As the Event Horizon Telescope continues to expand, these algorithms will need to evolve to keep pace with the increasingly demanding volume and dimensionality of the data., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, an authors' version of an invited comment article published from Nature Computational Science

Synchrotron radiation from hot gas near a black hole results in a polarized image. The image polarization is determined by effects including the orientation of the magnetic field in the emitting region, relativistic motion of the gas, strong gravitational lensing by the black hole, and parallel transport in the curved spacetime. We explore these effects using a simple model of an axisymmetric, equatorial accretion disk around a Schwarzschild black hole. By using an approximate expression for the null geodesics derived by Beloborodov (2002) and conservation of the Walker-Penrose constant, we provide analytic estimates for the image polarization. We test this model using currently favored general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of M87*, using ring parameters given by the simulations. For a subset of these with modest Faraday effects, we show that the ring model broadly reproduces the polarimetric image morphology. Our model also predicts the polarization evolution for compact flaring regions, such as those observed from Sgr A* with GRAVITY. With suitably chosen parameters, our simple model can reproduce the EVPA pattern and relative polarized intensity in Event Horizon Telescope images of M87*. Under the physically motivated assumption that the magnetic field trails the fluid velocity, this comparison is consistent with the clockwise rotation inferred from total intensity images., Comment: 29 pages, 11 figures, published in ApJ on May 3

In this paper we present DMC, a model and associated tool for polarimetric imaging of very long baseline interferometry datasets that simultaneously reconstructs the full-Stokes emission structure along with the station-based gain and leakage calibration terms. DMC formulates the imaging problem in terms of posterior exploration, which is achieved using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling. The resulting posterior distribution provides a natural quantification of uncertainty in both the image structure and in the data calibration. We run DMC on both synthetic and real datasets, the results of which demonstrate its ability to accurately recover both the image structure and calibration quantities as well as to assess their corresponding uncertainties. The framework underpinning DMC is flexible, and its specific implementation is under continued development., Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

We present the results from an observing campaign to confirm the peculiar motion of the supermassive black hole (SMBH) in J0437+2456 first reported in Pesce et al. (2018). Deep observations with the Arecibo Observatory have yielded a detection of neutral hydrogen (HI) emission, from which we measure a recession velocity of 4910 km s$^{-1}$ for the galaxy as a whole. We have also obtained near-infrared integral field spectroscopic observations of the galactic nucleus with the Gemini North telescope, yielding spatially resolved stellar and gas kinematics with a central velocity at the innermost radii ($0.1^{\prime \prime} \approx 34$ pc) of 4860 km s$^{-1}$. Both measurements differ significantly from the $\sim$4810 km s$^{-1}$ H$_2$O megamaser velocity of the SMBH, supporting the prior indications of a velocity offset between the SMBH and its host galaxy. However, the two measurements also differ significantly from one another, and the galaxy as a whole exhibits a complex velocity structure that implies the system has recently been dynamically disturbed. These results make it clear that the SMBH is not at rest with respect to the systemic velocity of the galaxy, though the specific nature of the mobile SMBH -- i.e., whether it traces an ongoing galaxy merger, a binary black hole system, or a gravitational wave recoil event -- remains unclear., Comment: 17 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

Closure phases and closure amplitudes have proven critical to modern radio interferometry due to their insensitivity to the uncertain station gains. We present the first set of closure quantities constructed from parallel-hand and cross-hand visibilities that are insensitive to both station gains and to polarimetric leakage. These complex "closure traces" are a natural extension of closure amplitudes and closure phases, are independent of all station-based linear corruptions of the polarized visibilities, and are complete in the sense that they contain all remaining information present in the visibility data. Products of closure traces on so-called "conjugate" quadrangles are sensitive only to structure in the source polarization fraction -- independent of variations in the Stokes $I$ structure -- and thereby provide unambiguous probes of polarization in astronomical sources., Comment: Accepted by ApJ, 15 pages, 6 figures

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has recently delivered the first resolved images of M87*, the supermassive black hole in the center of the M87 galaxy. These images were produced using 230 GHz observations performed in 2017 April. Additional observations are required to investigate the persistence of the primary image feature - a ring with azimuthal brightness asymmetry - and to quantify the image variability on event horizon scales. To address this need, we analyze M87* data collected with prototype EHT arrays in 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013. While these observations do not contain enough information to produce images, they are sufficient to constrain simple geometric models. We develop a modeling approach based on the framework utilized for the 2017 EHT data analysis and validate our procedures using synthetic data. Applying the same approach to the observational data sets, we find the M87* morphology in 2009-2017 to be consistent with a persistent asymmetric ring of ~40 uas diameter. The position angle of the peak intensity varies in time. In particular, we find a significant difference between the position angle measured in 2013 and 2017. These variations are in broad agreement with predictions of a subset of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations. We show that quantifying the variability across multiple observational epochs has the potential to constrain the physical properties of the source, such as the accretion state or the black hole spin.

A black hole embedded within a bright, optically thin emitting region imprints a nearly circular "shadow" on its image, corresponding to the observer's line-of-sight into the black hole. The shadow boundary depends on the black hole's mass and spin, providing an observable signature of both properties via high resolution images. However, standard expressions for the shadow boundary are most naturally parametrized by Boyer-Lindquist radii rather than by image coordinates. We explore simple, approximate parameterizations for the shadow boundary using ellipses and a family of curves known as limacons. We demonstrate that these curves provide excellent and efficient approximations for all black hole spins and inclinations. In particular, we show that the two parameters of the limacon naturally account for the three primary shadow deformations resulting from mass and spin: size, displacement, and asymmetry. These curves are convenient for parametric model fitting directly to interferometric data, they reveal the degeneracies expected when estimating black hole properties from images with practical measurement limitations, and they provide a natural framework for parametric tests of the Kerr metric using black hole images., Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures; accepted for publication in ApJ

Interferometric visibilities, reflecting the complex correlations between signals recorded at antennas in an interferometric array, carry information about the angular structure of a distant source. While unknown antenna gains in both amplitude and phase can prevent direct interpretation of these measurements, certain combinations of visibilities called closure phases and closure amplitudes are independent of antenna gains and provide a convenient set of robust observables. However, these closure quantities have subtle noise properties and are generally both linearly and statistically dependent. These complications have obstructed the proper use of closure quantities in interferometric analysis, and they have obscured the relationship between analysis with closure quantities and other analysis techniques such as self calibration. We review the statistics of closure quantities, noting common pitfalls that arise when approaching low signal-to-noise due to the nonlinear propagation of statistical errors. We then develop a strategy for isolating and fitting to the independent degrees of freedom captured by the closure quantities through explicit construction of linearly independent sets of quantities along with their noise covariance in the Gaussian limit, valid for moderate signal-to-noise, and we demonstrate that model fits have biased posteriors when this covariance is ignored. Finally, we introduce a unified procedure for fitting to both closure information and partially calibrated visibilities, and we demonstrate both analytically and numerically the direct equivalence of inference based on closure quantities to that based on self calibration of complex visibilities with unconstrained antenna gains., Comment: 31 pages, 17 figures

High-resolution imaging of supermassive black holes is now possible, with new applications to testing general relativity and horizon-scale accretion and relativistic jet formation processes. Over the coming decade, the EHT will propose to add new strategically placed VLBI elements operating at 1.3mm and 0.87mm wavelength. In parallel, development of next-generation backend instrumentation, coupled with high throughput correlation architectures, will boost sensitivity, allowing the new stations to be of modest collecting area while still improving imaging fidelity and angular resolution. The goal of these efforts is to move from imaging static horizon scale structure to dynamic reconstructions that capture the processes of accretion and jet launching in near real time., Comment: Astro2020 APC White Paper, 10 pages, 7 figures

Operating 1.5 million km from Earth at the Sun-Earth L2 Lagrange point, the Origins Space Telescope equipped with a slightly modified version of its HERO heterodyne instrument could function as a uniquely valuable node in a VLBI network. The unprecedented angular resolution resulting from the combination of Origins with existing ground-based millimeter/submillimeter telescope arrays would increase the number of spatially resolvable black holes by a factor of a million, permit the study of these black holes across all of cosmic history, and enable new tests of general relativity by unveiling the photon ring substructure in the nearest black holes., Comment: Astro2020 APC white paper; 9 pages, 2 figures

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) recently produced the first horizon-scale image of a supermassive black hole. Expanding the array to include a 3-meter space telescope operating at >200 GHz enables mass measurements of many black holes, movies of black hole accretion flows, and new tests of general relativity that are impossible from the ground.

The Event Horizon Telescope image of the supermassive black hole in the galaxy M87 is dominated by a bright, unresolved ring. General relativity predicts that embedded within this image lies a thin "photon ring," which is composed of an infinite sequence of self-similar subrings that are indexed by the number of photon orbits around the black hole. The subrings approach the edge of the black hole "shadow," becoming exponentially narrower but weaker with increasing orbit number, with seemingly negligible contributions from high order subrings. Here, we show that these subrings produce strong and universal signatures on long interferometric baselines. These signatures offer the possibility of precise measurements of black hole mass and spin, as well as tests of general relativity, using only a sparse interferometric array., Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures. Published in Science Advances

In combination with observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background, a measurement of the Hubble Constant provides a direct test of the standard $\Lambda$CDM cosmological model and a powerful constraint on the equation of state of dark energy. Observations of circumnuclear water vapor megamasers at 22 GHz in nearby active galaxies can be used to measure their distances, geometrically, and thereby provide a direct, one step measurement of the Hubble Constant. The measurement is independent of distance ladders and standard candles. With present-day instrumentation, the Megamaser Cosmology Project is expected to reach a $\sim$4% measurement using the megamaser technique, based on distances to fewer than 10 megamaser systems. A goal of the observational cosmology community is to reach a percent-level measurement of H$_0$ from several independent astrophysical measurements to minimize the systematics. The ngVLA will provide the sensitivity at 22 GHz required to discover and measure the additional megamaser disks that will enable an H$_0$ measurement at the $\sim$1% level., Comment: To be published in the ASP Monogaph Series, "Science with a Next-Generation VLA", ed. E.J. Murphy (ASP, San Francisco, CA)

The Next-Generation Very Large Array (ngVLA) has the potential to be a workhorse for the discovery and study of paired supermassive black holes either at large separations (dual) or in tightly bound systems (binary). In this chapter, we outline the science case for the study of these supermassive pairs, and summarize discovery methods that can be used at radio wavelengths to discover them: including morphological, spectral, and time-domain identifications. One critical aspect of this work is that multi-messenger binary black hole studies may be possible with the ngVLA when combined with gravitational-wave searches using pulsar timing array techniques. However, long-baseline interferometery (>>1000 km) will make this possibility more likely by expanding the redshift range at which radio emission arising from two separate black holes may be resolved and studied., Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures; Chapter in the ngVLA science book

H$_2$O megamasers residing in the accretion disks of active galactic nuclei (AGN) exhibit Keplerian rotation about the central supermassive black hole (SMBH). Such disk maser systems are excellent tools for diagnosing the kinematic status of the SMBH, and they currently provide the only direct and unambiguous measure of SMBH velocities outside of the Milky Way. We have measured the galaxy recession velocities for a sample of 10 maser disk systems using a combination of spatially resolved HI disk modeling, spatially integrated HI profile fitting, and optical spectral line and continuum fitting. In comparing the SMBH velocities to those of their host galaxies, we find two (out of 10) systems -- J0437+2456 and NGC 6264 -- for which the SMBH and galaxy velocities show a statistically significant ($>$3$\sigma$) difference. For NGC 6264 the apparent velocity offset can likely be explained by ionized gas motion within the host galaxy (e.g., from AGN-driven shocks). The velocity measurements for J0437+2456, however, imply a SMBH peculiar velocity of $69.6 \pm 12.7$ km s$^{-1}$ (5.5$\sigma$). We thus consider J0437+2456 to be a promising candidate for hosting either a recoiling or binary SMBH, though additional observations are necessary to exclude the possibility of a systematic offset between the galactic recession velocity and that measured using the optical spectrum., Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

We use single-dish radio spectra of known 22 GHz H$_2$O megamasers, primarily gathered from the large dataset observed by the Megamaser Cosmology Project, to identify Keplerian accretion disks and to investigate several aspects of the disk physics. We test a mechanism for maser excitation proposed by Maoz & McKee (1998), whereby population inversion arises in gas behind spiral shocks traveling through the disk. Though the flux of redshifted features is larger on average than that of blueshifted features, in support of the model, the high-velocity features show none of the predicted systematic velocity drifts. We find rapid intra-day variability in the maser spectrum of ESO 558-G009 that is likely the result of interstellar scintillation, for which we favor a nearby ($D \approx 70$ pc) scattering screen. In a search for reverberation in six well-sampled sources, we find that any radially-propagating signal must be contributing $\lesssim$10% of the total variability. We also set limits on the magnetic field strengths in seven sources, using strong flaring events to check for the presence of Zeeman splitting. These limits are typically 200--300 mG ($1\sigma$), but our most stringent limits reach down to 73 mG for the galaxy NGC 1194., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

We present imaging and spectroscopic observations with HST and VLT of the ring of SN 1987A from 1994 to 2014. After an almost exponential increase of the shocked emission from the hotspots up to day ~8,000 (~2009), both this and the unshocked emission are now fading. From the radial positions of the hotspots we see an acceleration of these up to 500-1000 km/s, consistent with the highest spectroscopic shock velocities from the radiative shocks. In the most recent observations (2013 and 2014), we find several new hotspots outside the inner ring, excited by either X-rays from the shocks or by direct shock interaction. All of these observations indicate that the interaction with the supernova ejecta is now gradually dissolving the hotspots. We predict, based on the observed decay, that the inner ring will be destroyed by ~2025., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, accepted for ApJ Letters