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We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framework adopted, the multitude of new data that have been made available after the preparation of the previous MPS04, and the set of earthquake rate and ground motion models used, we give particular emphasis to the main novelties of the modeling and the MPS19 outcomes. Specifically, we (i) introduce a novel approach to estimate and to visualize the epistemic uncertainty over the whole country; (ii) assign weights to each model components (earthquake rate and ground motion models) according to a quantitative testing phase and structured experts’ elicitation sessions; (iii) test (retrospectively) the MPS19 outcomes with the horizontal peak ground acceleration observed in the last decades, and the macroseismic intensities of the last centuries; (iv) introduce a pioneering approach to build MPS19_cluster, which accounts for the effect of earthquakes that have been removed by declustering. Finally, to make the interpretation of MPS19 outcomes easier for a wide range of possible stakeholders, we represent the final result also in terms of probability to exceed 0.15 g in 50 years., peer-reviewed

"Io Non Rischio - Terremoto (INR-T)" ("I Do Not Take Risks - Earthquake") is an Italian communication campaign created and promoted by the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC), the National Association for Public Assistance (ANPAS), the Italian Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), and the Network of the University Laboratories of Seismic Engineering (ReLUIS). The rationale behind the campaign is that preventing or at least reducing the dangers associated with earthquakes is everyone's interest and duty. Learning how to do so, through an effective diffusion of information on seismic risk, fosters collective and individual responsibility, while encouraging active participation on the part of citizens. The INR-T campaign aims to promote a culture of seismic risk prevention, starting by training volunteers involved in civil protection activities, so that they can effectively and continuously help and encourage the public to take a more active role in seismic risk reduction. This paper describes the INR-T campaign and the activities that have led to an increasing number of involved volunteers and members of the public reached since the first edition (2011), until the fourth edition (2014). © 2016-OGS.

RNA interference has frequently been applied to modulate gene function in organisms. With the aim of creating new autocidal methods based on neuro-endocrine disruptors for invasive populations of Procambarus clarkii, we silenced the Crustacean Hyperglycemic Hormone (CHH) by injecting the corresponding dsRNA. CHH is a pleiotropic hormone that primarily regulates the mobilization of energy reserves and plays a pivotal role in stress responses. Here, we describe two experiments aimed at testing whether CHH silencing significantly alters important physiological aspects. The first experiment investigates the effects of CHH silencing at the glycemic and transcriptomic level in the eyestalk. The second experiment explores the long-term effects of CHH silencing and the effects on mortality and moulting rates. Osmotic deficits and mortality were recorded in specimens injected with CHH dsRNA, whilst controls were injected with GFP dsRNA. After 20 days, despite still silenced for CHH, individuals that survived recovered a strong hyperglycemic response after serotonin injection due to the compensatory effect of two peptides belonging to the crustacean neurohormone CHH protein family.

After the April 6th 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3), where 306 people died and a further 60,000 were displaced, seismic microzoning investigations have been carried out for towns affected by a macroseismic intensity equal to or greater than 7 MCS. Based upon seismotectonic data, historical seismicity and strong motion records, we defined input spectra to be used in the numerical simulations of seismic microzoning in four key municipalities, including the town of L'Aquila. We adopted two main approaches: uniform hazard response spectra are obtained by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment introducing some time-dependency for individual faults on the study area; a deterministic design spectrum is computed from magnitude/distance pairs extracted by a stationary probabilistic analysis of historical intensities. The uniform hazard spectrum of the present Italian building code represents the third, less restrictive, response spectrum to be used for the numerical simulations in seismic microzoning. Strong motions recordings of the main shock of the L'Aquila sequence enlighten the critical role played by both the local response and distances metric for sites located above a seismogenic fault; however, these time-histories are compatible with the uncertainties of a deterministic utilization of ground motion predictive equations. As recordings at very near field are rare, they cannot be neglected while defining the seismic input. Disaggregation on the non-Possonian seismotectonic analysis and on the stationary site-intensity estimates reach very similar results in magnitude-distance pairs identification; we interpret this convergence as a validation of the geology-based model by historical observations.

Hazard estimations based on the characteristic earthquake model and time-dependent renewal process are applied to the seismogenic faults at Mt. Etna volcano. Most of them are characterised by a long record of historically well-documented earthquakes occurred in the last 200 years (CMTE catalogue, Azzaro et al., 2000), often associated with coseismic surface faulting. We analyse the main seismic sequences associated to the seismotectonic domain of the Timpe system, in the eastern flank of the volcano (Azzaro, 2004). Intertimes computed for all the events which have occurred in this sector, with an epicentral intensity Io ≥ VIII EMS, show an aperiodicity coefficient (standard deviation over mean value) near to the one, typical of a stationary process; the mean recurrence time is about 17.2 years. The same analysis is also applied to a declustered catalogue, obtaining a recurrence time of 19.6 years, consistent with the value obtained by the historical rate from the catalogue. Conversely, by calculating the intertimes for each individual fault, the aperiodicity coefficient falls at ca. 0.33, depicting a quasi-periodic behaviour. For these reasons, a time-dependent approach to seismic hazard assessment by using a renewal model based on the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) distribution, is applied. Mean recurrence time of major events is calibrated by merging the inter-event times observed at each fault; aperiodicity is tuned on b-values from instrumental data, according to the approach proposed by Zoeller et al. (2008). Finally we compare these mean recurrence times with the values obtained by using only geometrical and kinematic information, as defined in Peruzza et al. (2008) for faults in Italy. Time-dependent hazard assessment is compared with the stationary assumption of seismicity, and validated in a retrospective forward model. Seismic hazard estimates is given in terms of earthquake rupture forecast: impending events are expected on the S. Tecla Fault and, secondly, on the Moscarello Fault, both involved in the highly active geodynamic processes affecting the eastern flank of Mt. Etna., peer-reviewed

A time dependent approach to seismic hazard assessment, based on a renewal model using the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) distribution, has been applied to the best-known seismogenic faults at Mt. Etna volcano. These structures have been characterised by frequent coseismic surface displacement, and a long list of historically well-documented earthquakes occurred in the last 200 years (CMTE catalogue, Azzaro et al., 2000, 2002, 2006). Seismic hazard estimates, given in terms of earthquake rupture forecast, are conditioned to the time elapsed since the last event: impending events are expected on the S. Tecla Fault, and secondly on the Moscatello Fault, both involved in the highly active, geodynamic processes affecting the eastern flank of Mt. Etna. Mean recurrence time of major events is calibrated by merging the inter-event times observed at each fault; aperiodicity is tuned on b-values, following the approach proposed by Zoeller et al. (2008). Finally we compare these mean recurrence times with the values obtained by using only geometrical and kinematic information, as defined in Peruzza et al. (2008) for faults in Italy. Time-dependent hazard assessment is compared with the stationary assumption of seismicity, and validated in a retrospective forward model. Forecasted rates in a 5 years perspective (1st April 2009 to 1st April 2014), on magnitude bins compatible with macroseismic data are available for testing in the frame of the CSEP (Collaboratory for the study of Earthquake Predictability, www.cseptesting.org) project., peer-reviewed