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Climate change is commonly assumed to induce species' range shifts toward the poles. Yet, other environmental changes may affect the geographical distribution of species in unexpected ways. Here, we quantify multidecadal shifts in the distribution of European forest plants and link these shifts to key drivers of forest biodiversity change: climate change, atmospheric deposition (nitrogen and sulfur), and forest canopy dynamics. Surprisingly, westward distribution shifts were 2.6 times more likely than northward ones. Not climate change, but nitrogen-mediated colonization events, possibly facilitated by the recovery from past acidifying deposition, best explain westward movements. Biodiversity redistribution patterns appear complex and are more likely driven by the interplay among several environmental changes than due to the exclusive effects of climate change alone.

Forest cover has been a pivotal indicator of biological conservation and carrying capacity for wildlife in forest ecoregions. Such a relationship underpins policies focused on the extension of protected lands. Here, we estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) as a proxy for habitat quality in seminatural rural patches and provide a comparison with approaches that only consider forest cover. We hypothesize that recommendations for biological conservation in agricultural landscapes are substantially improved if habitat quality is also taken into account, and thus consider the possibility of forest quality being modulated by land-use amount, type, and age. We assessed AGB in a densely farmed Brazilian region using a straightforward approach designed to be affordable at large scales, focusing on two expanding and contrasting land uses: sugarcane, and eucalyptus plantations. At a detailed scale, we confirmed through field surveys and AGB estimation using 3D-multispectral imagery (i.e., AGB = 0.842 × vegetation height NDVI+1 ) that AGB variation could be predicted with forest degradation classes that are visually distinguishable with high-resolution images: 9.33 t ha -1 (90% predictive intervals [PI] = [3.23, 26.97]) in regenerating fields (RF), 31.12 t ha -1 (90% PI = [10.77, 89.90]) in pioneer woods (PW), and 149.04 t ha -1 (90% PI = [51.59, 430.58]) in dense forests (DF). Applying these values to land units sampled across the study region, we found an average land use of 88.5%, together with 11.5% of land set aside for conservation, which reduced AGB to less than 4.2% of its potential (averages of 5.85 t ha -1 in sugarcane-dominated areas and 6.56 t ha -1 in eucalyptus-dominated areas, with secondary forests averaging 149.04 t ha -1 ). This imbalance between forest cover and AGB resulted from forest quality decay, which was similarly severe among land-use types, ages, and extensions. Therefore, the shortage of trophic resources is likely more critical to wildlife than spatial limitations in vastly deforested tropical ecoregions, where AGB and carbon sinks can be more than doubled just by restoring forests in lands currently spared by agriculture., (© 2024 The Ecological Society of America.)

Plant diversity effects on community productivity often increase over time. Whether the strengthening of diversity effects is caused by temporal shifts in species-level overyielding (i.e., higher species-level productivity in diverse communities compared with monocultures) remains unclear. Here, using data from 65 grassland and forest biodiversity experiments, we show that the temporal strength of diversity effects at the community scale is underpinned by temporal changes in the species that yield. These temporal trends of species-level overyielding are shaped by plant ecological strategies, which can be quantitatively delimited by functional traits. In grasslands, the temporal strengthening of biodiversity effects on community productivity was associated with increasing biomass overyielding of resource-conservative species increasing over time, and with overyielding of species characterized by fast resource acquisition either decreasing or increasing. In forests, temporal trends in species overyielding differ when considering above- versus belowground resource acquisition strategies. Overyielding in stem growth decreased for species with high light capture capacity but increased for those with high soil resource acquisition capacity. Our results imply that a diversity of species with different, and potentially complementary, ecological strategies is beneficial for maintaining community productivity over time in both grassland and forest ecosystems., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Plant communities are being exposed to changing environmental conditions all around the globe, leading to alterations in plant diversity, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. For herbaceous understorey communities in temperate forests, responses to global change are postulated to be complex, due to the presence of a tree layer that modulates understorey responses to external pressures such as climate change and changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition rates. Multiple investigative approaches have been put forward as tools to detect, quantify and predict understorey responses to these global-change drivers, including, among others, distributed resurvey studies and manipulative experiments. These investigative approaches are generally designed and reported upon in isolation, while integration across investigative approaches is rarely considered. In this study, we integrate three investigative approaches (two complementary resurvey approaches and one experimental approach) to investigate how climate warming and changes in nitrogen deposition affect the functional composition of the understorey and how functional responses in the understorey are modulated by canopy disturbance, that is, changes in overstorey canopy openness over time. Our resurvey data reveal that most changes in understorey functional characteristics represent responses to changes in canopy openness with shifts in macroclimate temperature and aerial nitrogen deposition playing secondary roles. Contrary to expectations, we found little evidence that these drivers interact. In addition, experimental findings deviated from the observational findings, suggesting that the forces driving understorey change at the regional scale differ from those driving change at the forest floor (i.e., the experimental treatments). Our study demonstrates that different approaches need to be integrated to acquire a full picture of how understorey communities respond to global change., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Understanding forest understorey community response to environmental change, including management actions, is vital given the understorey's importance for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning. The Natural World Heritage Hyrcanian temperate forests (Iran) provide an ideal template for furnishing an appreciation of how management actions can mitigate undesired climate change effects, due to the forests' broad environmental gradients, isolation from colonization sources and varied light environments. We used records of 95 understorey plant species from 512 plots to model their probability of occurrence as a function of contemporary climate and soil variables, and canopy cover. For 65 species with good predictive accuracy, we then projected two climate scenarios in the context of either increasing or decreasing canopy cover, to assess whether overstorey management could mitigate or aggravate climate change effects. Climate variables were the most important predictors for the distribution of all species. Soil and canopy cover varied in importance depending on understorey growth form. Climate change was projected to negatively affect future probabilities of occurrence. However, management, here represented by canopy cover change, is predicted to modify this trajectory for some species groups. Models predict increases in light-adapted and generalist forbs with reduced canopy cover, while graminoids and ferns still decline. Increased canopy cover is projected to buffer an otherwise significant decreasing response of cold-adapted species to climate change. However, increasing canopy cover is not projected to buffer the predicted negative impact of climate change on shade-adapted forest specialists. Inconsistent responses of different species and/or growth forms to climate change and canopy cover reflect their complicated life histories and habitat preferences. Canopy cover management may help prevent the climate change induced loss of some important groups for biodiversity conservation. However, for shade-adapted forest specialists, our results imply a need to adopt other conservation measures in the face of anticipated climate change., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Intraspecific trait variation (ITV; i.e. variability in mean and/or distribution of plant attribute values within species) can occur in response to multiple drivers. Environmental change and land-use legacies could directly alter trait values within species but could also affect them indirectly through changes in vegetation cover. Increasing variability in environmental conditions could lead to more ITV, but responses might differ among species. Disentangling these drivers on ITV is necessary to accurately predict plant community responses to global change. We planted herb communities into forest soils with and without a recent history of agriculture. Soils were collected across temperate European regions, while the 15 selected herb species had different colonizing abilities and affinities to forest habitat. These mesocosms (384) were exposed to two-level full-factorial treatments of warming, nitrogen addition and illumination. We measured plant height and specific leaf area (SLA). For the majority of species, mean plant height increased as vegetation cover increased in response to light addition, warming and agricultural legacy. The coefficient of variation (CV) for height was larger in fast-colonizing species. Mean SLA for vernal species increased with warming, while light addition generally decreased mean SLA for shade-tolerant species. Interactions between treatments were not important predictors. Environmental change treatments influenced ITV, either via increasing vegetation cover or by affecting trait values directly. Species' ITV was individualistic, i.e. species responded to different single resource and condition manipulations that benefited their growth in the short term. These individual responses could be important for altered community organization after a prolonged period., (© 2020 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.)

Functional traits respond to environmental drivers, hence evaluating trait-environment relationships across spatial environmental gradients can help to understand how multiple drivers influence plant communities. Global-change drivers such as changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition occur worldwide, but affect community trait distributions at the local scale, where resources (e.g. light availability) and conditions (e.g. soil pH) also influence plant communities. We investigate how multiple environmental drivers affect community trait responses related to resource acquisition (plant height, specific leaf area (SLA), woodiness, and mycorrhizal status) and regeneration (seed mass, lateral spread) of European temperate deciduous forest understoreys. We sampled understorey communities and derived trait responses across spatial gradients of global-change drivers (temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, and past land use), while integrating in-situ plot measurements on resources and conditions (soil type, Olsen phosphorus (P), Ellenberg soil moisture, light, litter mass, and litter quality). Among the global-change drivers, mean annual temperature strongly influenced traits related to resource acquisition. Higher temperatures were associated with taller understoreys producing leaves with lower SLA, and a higher proportional cover of woody and obligate mycorrhizal (OM) species. Communities in plots with higher Ellenberg soil moisture content had smaller seeds and lower proportional cover of woody and OM species. Finally, plots with thicker litter layers hosted taller understoreys with larger seeds and a higher proportional cover of OM species. Our findings suggest potential community shifts in temperate forest understoreys with global warming, and highlight the importance of local resources and conditions as well as global-change drivers for community trait variation., (© 2019 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.)

Plant community composition and functional traits respond to chronic drivers such as climate change and nitrogen (N) deposition. In contrast, pulse disturbances from ecosystem management can additionally change resources and conditions. Community responses to combined environmental changes may further depend on land-use legacies. Disentangling the relative importance of these global change drivers is necessary to improve predictions of future plant communities. We performed a multifactor global change experiment to disentangle drivers of herbaceous plant community trajectories in a temperate deciduous forest. Communities of five species, assembled from a pool of 15 forest herb species with varying ecological strategies, were grown in 384 mesocosms on soils from ancient forest (forested at least since 1850) and postagricultural forest (forested since 1950) collected across Europe. Mesocosms were exposed to two-level full-factorial treatments of warming, light addition (representing changing forest management) and N enrichment. We measured plant height, specific leaf area (SLA) and species cover over the course of three growing seasons. Increasing light availability followed by warming reordered the species towards a taller herb community, with limited effects of N enrichment or the forest land-use history. Two-way interactions between treatments and incorporating intraspecific trait variation (ITV) did not yield additional inference on community height change. Contrastingly, community SLA differed when considering ITV along with species reordering, which highlights ITV's importance for understanding leaf morphology responses to nutrient enrichment in dark conditions. Contrary to our expectations, we found limited evidence of land-use legacies affecting community responses to environmental changes, perhaps because dispersal limitation was removed in the experimental design. These findings can improve predictions of community functional trait responses to global changes by acknowledging ITV, and subtle changes in light availability. Adaptive forest management to impending global change could benefit the restoration and conservation of understorey plant communities by reducing the light availability., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Temperate forests cover 16% of the global forest area. Within these forests, the understorey is an important biodiversity reservoir that can influence ecosystem processes and functions in multiple ways. However, we still lack a thorough understanding of the relative importance of the understorey for temperate forest functioning. As a result, understoreys are often ignored during assessments of forest functioning and changes thereof under global change. We here compiled studies that quantify the relative importance of the understorey for temperate forest functioning, focussing on litter production, nutrient cycling, evapotranspiration, tree regeneration, pollination and pathogen dynamics. We describe the mechanisms driving understorey functioning and develop a conceptual framework synthesizing possible effects of multiple global change drivers on understorey-mediated forest ecosystem functioning. Our review illustrates that the understorey's contribution to temperate forest functioning is significant but varies depending on the ecosystem function and the environmental context, and more importantly, the characteristics of the overstorey. To predict changes in understorey functioning and its relative importance for temperate forest functioning under global change, we argue that a simultaneous investigation of both overstorey and understorey functional responses to global change will be crucial. Our review shows that such studies are still very scarce, only available for a limited set of ecosystem functions and limited to quantification, providing little data to forecast functional responses to global change., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Bastin et al 's estimate (Reports, 5 July 2019, p. 76) that tree planting for climate change mitigation could sequester 205 gigatonnes of carbon is approximately five times too large. Their analysis inflated soil organic carbon gains, failed to safeguard against warming from trees at high latitudes and elevations, and considered afforestation of savannas, grasslands, and shrublands to be restoration., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Forecasting the growth of tree species to future environmental changes requires a better understanding of its determinants. Tree growth is known to respond to global-change drivers such as climate change or atmospheric deposition, as well as to local land-use drivers such as forest management. Yet, large geographical scale studies examining interactive growth responses to multiple global-change drivers are relatively scarce and rarely consider management effects. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of three global-change drivers (temperature, precipitation and nitrogen deposition) on individual tree growth of three study species (Quercus robur/petraea, Fagus sylvatica and Fraxinus excelsior). We sampled trees along spatial environmental gradients across Europe and accounted for the effects of management for Quercus. We collected increment cores from 267 trees distributed over 151 plots in 19 forest regions and characterized their neighbouring environment to take into account potentially confounding factors such as tree size, competition, soil conditions and elevation. We demonstrate that growth responds interactively to global-change drivers, with species-specific sensitivities to the combined factors. Simultaneously high levels of precipitation and deposition benefited Fraxinus, but negatively affected Quercus' growth, highlighting species-specific interactive tree growth responses to combined drivers. For Fagus, a stronger growth response to higher temperatures was found when precipitation was also higher, illustrating the potential negative effects of drought stress under warming for this species. Furthermore, we show that past forest management can modulate the effects of changing temperatures on Quercus' growth; individuals in plots with a coppicing history showed stronger growth responses to higher temperatures. Overall, our findings highlight how tree growth can be interactively determined by global-change drivers, and how these growth responses might be modulated by past forest management. By showing future growth changes for scenarios of environmental change, we stress the importance of considering multiple drivers, including past management and their interactions, when predicting tree growth., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Understorey communities can dominate forest plant diversity and strongly affect forest ecosystem structure and function. Understoreys often respond sensitively but inconsistently to drivers of ecological change, including nitrogen (N) deposition. Nitrogen deposition effects, reflected in the concept of critical loads, vary greatly not only among species and guilds, but also among forest types. Here, we characterize such context dependency as driven by differences in the amounts and forms of deposited N, cumulative deposition, the filtering of N by overstoreys, and available plant species pools. Nitrogen effects on understorey trajectories can also vary due to differences in surrounding landscape conditions; ambient browsing pressure; soils and geology; other environmental factors controlling plant growth; and, historical and current disturbance/management regimes. The number of these factors and their potentially complex interactions complicate our efforts to make simple predictions about how N deposition affects forest understoreys. We review the literature to examine evidence for context dependency in N deposition effects on forest understoreys. We also use data from 1814 European temperate forest plots to test the ability of multi-level models to characterize context-dependent understorey responses across sites that differ in levels of N deposition, community composition, local conditions and management history. This analysis demonstrated that historical management, and plot location on light and pH-fertility gradients, significantly affect how understorey communities respond to N deposition. We conclude that species' and communities' responses to N deposition, and thus the determination of critical loads, vary greatly depending on environmental contexts. This complicates our efforts to predict how N deposition will affect forest understoreys and thus how best to conserve and restore understorey biodiversity. To reduce uncertainty and incorporate context dependency in critical load setting, we should assemble data on underlying environmental conditions, conduct globally distributed field experiments, and analyse a wider range of habitat types., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

A global ecological restoration agenda has led to ambitious programs in environmental policy to mitigate declines in biodiversity and ecosystem services. Current restoration programs can incompletely return desired ecosystem service levels, while resilience of restored ecosystems to future threats is unknown. It is therefore essential to advance understanding and better utilize knowledge from ecological literature in restoration approaches. We identified an incomplete linkage between global change ecology, ecosystem function research, and restoration ecology. This gap impedes a full understanding of the interactive effects of changing environmental factors on the long-term provision of ecosystem functions and a quantification of trade-offs and synergies among multiple services. Approaches that account for the effects of multiple changing factors on the composition of plant traits and their direct and indirect impact on the provision of ecosystem functions and services can close this gap. However, studies on this multilayered relationship are currently missing. We therefore propose an integrated restoration agenda complementing trait-based empirical studies with simulation modeling. We introduce an ongoing case study to demonstrate how this framework could allow systematic assessment of the impacts of interacting environmental factors on long-term service provisioning. Our proposed agenda will benefit restoration programs by suggesting plant species compositions with specific traits that maximize the supply of multiple ecosystem services in the long term. Once the suggested compositions have been implemented in actual restoration projects, these assemblages should be monitored to assess whether they are resilient as well as to improve model parameterization. Additionally, the integration of empirical and simulation modeling research can improve global outcomes by raising the awareness of which restoration goals can be achieved, due to the quantification of trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services under a wide range of environmental conditions.

The contemporary state of functional traits and species richness in plant communities depends on legacy effects of past disturbances. Whether temporal responses of community properties to current environmental changes are altered by such legacies is, however, unknown. We expect global environmental changes to interact with land-use legacies given different community trajectories initiated by prior management, and subsequent responses to altered resources and conditions. We tested this expectation for species richness and functional traits using 1814 survey-resurvey plot pairs of understorey communities from 40 European temperate forest datasets, syntheses of management transitions since the year 1800, and a trait database. We also examined how plant community indicators of resources and conditions changed in response to management legacies and environmental change. Community trajectories were clearly influenced by interactions between management legacies from over 200 years ago and environmental change. Importantly, higher rates of nitrogen deposition led to increased species richness and plant height in forests managed less intensively in 1800 (i.e., high forests), and to decreases in forests with a more intensive historical management in 1800 (i.e., coppiced forests). There was evidence that these declines in community variables in formerly coppiced forests were ameliorated by increased rates of temperature change between surveys. Responses were generally apparent regardless of sites' contemporary management classifications, although sometimes the management transition itself, rather than historic or contemporary management types, better explained understorey responses. Main effects of environmental change were rare, although higher rates of precipitation change increased plant height, accompanied by increases in fertility indicator values. Analysis of indicator values suggested the importance of directly characterising resources and conditions to better understand legacy and environmental change effects. Accounting for legacies of past disturbance can reconcile contradictory literature results and appears crucial to anticipating future responses to global environmental change., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The understorey harbours a substantial part of vascular plant diversity in temperate forests and plays an important functional role, affecting ecosystem processes such as nutrient cycling and overstorey regeneration. Global change, however, is putting these understorey communities on trajectories of change, potentially altering and reducing their functioning in the future. Developing mitigation strategies to safeguard the diversity and functioning of temperate forests in the future is challenging and requires improved predictive capacity. Process-based models that predict understorey community composition over time, based on first principles of ecology, have the potential to guide mitigation endeavours but such approaches are rare. Here, we review fourteen understorey modelling approaches that have been proposed during the last three decades. We evaluate their inclusion of mechanisms that are required to predict the impact of global change on understorey communities. We conclude that none of the currently existing models fully accounts for all processes that we deem important based on empirical and experimental evidence. Based on this review, we contend new models are needed to project the complex impacts of global change on forest understoreys. Plant functional traits should be central to such future model developments, as they drive community assembly processes and provide valuable information on the functioning of the understorey. Given the important role of the overstorey, a coupling of understorey models to overstorey models will be essential to predict the impact of global change on understorey composition and structure, and how it will affect the functioning of temperate forests in the future., Competing Interests: Declaration of interest The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Reforestation of agricultural land with mixed-species environmental plantings of native trees and shrubs contributes to abatement of greenhouse gas emissions through sequestration of carbon, and to landscape remediation and biodiversity enhancement. Although accumulation of carbon in biomass is relatively well understood, less is known about associated changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) following different types of reforestation. Direct measurement of SOC may not be cost effective where rates of SOC sequestration are relatively small and/or highly spatially-variable, thereby requiring intensive sampling. Hence, our objective was to develop a verified modelling approach for determining changes in SOC to facilitate the inclusion of SOC in the carbon accounts of reforestation projects. We measured carbon stocks of biomass, litter and SOC (0-30cm) in 125 environmental plantings (often paired to adjacent agricultural sites), representing sites of varying productivity across the Australian continent. After constraining a carbon accounting model to observed measures of growth, allocation of biomass, and rates of litterfall and litter decomposition, the model was calibrated to maximise the efficiency of prediction of SOC and its fractions. Uncertainties in both measured and modelled results meant that efficiencies of prediction of SOC across the 125 contrasting plantings were only moderate, at 39-68%. Data-informed modelling nonetheless improved confidence in outputs from scenario analyses, confirming that: (i) reforestation on agricultural land highly depleted in SOC (i.e. previously under cropping) had the highest capacity to sequester SOC, particularly where rainfall was relatively high (>600mmyear -1 ), and; (ii) decreased planting width and increased stand density and the proportion of eucalypts enhanced rates of SOC sequestration. These results improve confidence in predictions of SOC following environmental reforestation under varying conditions. The calibrated model will be a useful tool for informing land managers and policy makers seeking to understand the dynamics of SOC following such reforestation., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Reforestation of agricultural lands with mixed-species environmental plantings can effectively sequester C. While accurate and efficient methods for predicting soil organic C content and composition have recently been developed for soils under agricultural land uses, such methods under forested land uses are currently lacking. This study aimed to develop a method using infrared spectroscopy for accurately predicting total organic C (TOC) and its fractions (particulate, POC; humus, HOC; and resistant, ROC organic C) in soils under environmental plantings. Soils were collected from 117 paired agricultural-reforestation sites across Australia. TOC fractions were determined in a subset of 38 reforested soils using physical fractionation by automated wet-sieving and 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Mid- and near-infrared spectra (MNIRS, 6000-450 cm -1 ) were acquired from finely-ground soils from environmental plantings and agricultural land. Satisfactory prediction models based on MNIRS and partial least squares regression (PLSR) were developed for TOC and its fractions. Leave-one-out cross-validations of MNIRS-PLSR models indicated accurate predictions (R 2  > 0.90, negligible bias, ratio of performance to deviation > 3) and fraction-specific functional group contributions to beta coefficients in the models. TOC and its fractions were predicted using the cross-validated models and soil spectra for 3109 reforested and agricultural soils. The reliability of predictions determined using k-nearest neighbour score distance indicated that >80% of predictions were within the satisfactory inlier limit. The study demonstrated the utility of infrared spectroscopy (MNIRS-PLSR) to rapidly and economically determine TOC and its fractions and thereby accurately describe the effects of land use change such as reforestation on agricultural soils., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

More and more ecologists have started to resurvey communities sampled in earlier decades to determine long-term shifts in community composition and infer the likely drivers of the ecological changes observed. However, to assess the relative importance of, and interactions among, multiple drivers joint analyses of resurvey data from many regions spanning large environmental gradients are needed. In this paper we illustrate how combining resurvey data from multiple regions can increase the likelihood of driver-orthogonality within the design and show that repeatedly surveying across multiple regions provides higher representativeness and comprehensiveness, allowing us to answer more completely a broader range of questions. We provide general guidelines to aid implementation of multi-region resurvey databases. In so doing, we aim to encourage resurvey database development across other community types and biomes to advance global environmental change research., Competing Interests: None of the authors has a conflict of interest.

One of the major challenges in ecology is to predict how multiple global environmental changes will affect future ecosystem patterns (e.g. plant community composition) and processes (e.g. nutrient cycling). Here, we highlight arguments for the necessary inclusion of land-use legacies in this endeavour. Alterations in resources and conditions engendered by previous land use, together with influences on plant community processes such as dispersal, selection, drift and speciation, have steered communities and ecosystem functions onto trajectories of change. These trajectories may be modulated by contemporary environmental changes such as climate warming and nitrogen deposition. We performed a literature review which suggests that these potential interactions have rarely been investigated. This crucial oversight is potentially due to an assumption that knowledge of the contemporary state allows accurate projection into the future. Lessons from other complex dynamic systems, and the recent recognition of the importance of previous conditions in explaining contemporary and future ecosystem properties, demand the testing of this assumption. Vegetation resurvey databases across gradients of land use and environmental change, complemented by rigorous experiments, offer a means to test for interactions between land-use legacies and multiple environmental changes. Implementing these tests in the context of a trait-based framework will allow biologists to synthesize compositional and functional ecosystem responses. This will further our understanding of the importance of land-use legacies in determining future ecosystem properties, and soundly inform conservation and restoration management actions., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Shifts in disturbance regime have often been linked to invasion in systems by native and nonnative species. This process can have negative effects on biodiversity and ecosystem function. Degradation may be ameliorated by the reinstatement of the disturbance regimes, such as the reintroduction of fire in pyrogenic systems. Modeling is one method through which potential outcomes of different regimes can be investigated. We created a population model to examine the control of a native invasive that is expanding and increasing in abundance due to suppressed fire. Our model, parameterized with field data from a case study of the tree Allocasuarina huegeliana in Australian sandplain heath, simulated different fire return intervals with and without the additional management effort of mechanical removal of the native invader. Population behavior under the different management options was assessed, and general estimates of potential biodiversity impacts were compared. We found that changes in fire return intervals made no significant difference in the increase and spread of the population. However, decreased fire return intervals did lower densities reached in the simulated heath patch as well as the estimated maximum biodiversity impacts. When simulating both mechanical removal and fire, we found that the effects of removal depended on the return intervals and the strategy used. Increase rates were not significantly affected by any removal strategy. However, we found that removal, particularly over the whole patch rather than focusing on satellite populations, could decrease average and maximum densities reached and thus decrease the predicted biodiversity impacts. Our simulation model shows that disturbance-based management has the potential to control native invasion in cases where shifted disturbance is the likely driver of the invasion. The increased knowledge gained through the modeling methods outlined can inform management decisions in fire regime planning that takes into consideration control of an invasive species. Although particularly applicable to native invasives, when properly informed by empirical knowledge these techniques can be expanded to management of invasion by nonnative species, either by restoring historic disturbance regimes or by instating novel regimes in innovative ways.

Tipping points--where systems shift radically and potentially irreversibly into a different state--have received considerable attention in ecology. Although there is convincing evidence that human drivers can cause regime shifts at local and regional scales, the increasingly invoked concept of planetary scale tipping points in the terrestrial biosphere remains unconfirmed. By evaluating potential mechanisms and drivers, we conclude that spatial heterogeneity in drivers and responses, and lack of strong continental interconnectivity, probably induce relatively smooth changes at the global scale, without an expectation of marked tipping patterns. This implies that identifying critical points along global continua of drivers might be unfeasible and that characterizing global biotic change with single aggregates is inapt., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Inputs of available nitrogen (N) to ecosystems have grown over the recent past. There is limited general understanding of how increased N inputs affect the cycling and retention of other potentially limiting nutrients. Using a plant-soil nutrient model, and by explicitly coupling N and phosphorus (P) in plant biomass, we examine the impact of increasing N supply on the ecosystem cycling and retention of P, assuming that the main impact of N is to increase plant growth. We find divergent responses in the P cycle depending on the specific pathway by which nutrients are lost from the ecosystem. Retention of P is promoted if the relative propensity for loss of plant available P is greater than that for the loss of less readily available organic P. This is the first theoretical demonstration that the coupled response of ecosystem-scale nutrient cycles critically depends on the form of nutrient loss. P retention might be lessened, or reversed, depending on the kinetics and size of a buffering reactive P pool. These properties determine the reactive pool's ability to supply available P. Parameterization of the model across a range of forest ecosystems spanning various environmental and climatic conditions indicates that enhanced plant growth due to increased N should trigger increased P conservation within ecosystems while leading to more dissolved organic P loss. We discuss how the magnitude and direction of the effect of N may also depend on other processes.