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We investigate the robustness of Neural Ratio Estimators (NREs) and Neural Posterior Estimators (NPEs) to distributional shifts in the context of measuring the abundance of dark matter subhalos using strong gravitational lensing data. While these data-driven inference frameworks can be accurate on test data from the same distribution as the training sets, in real applications, it is expected that simulated training data and true observational data will differ in their distributions. We explore the behavior of a trained NRE and trained sequential NPEs to estimate the population-level parameters of dark matter subhalos from a large sample of images of strongly lensed galaxies with test data presenting distributional shifts within and beyond the bounds of the training distribution in the nuisance parameters (e.g., the background source morphology). While our results show that NREs and NPEs perform well when tested perfectly in distribution, they exhibit significant biases when confronted with slight deviations from the examples seen in the training distribution. This indicates the necessity for caution when applying NREs and NPEs to real astrophysical data, where high-dimensional underlying distributions are not perfectly known., Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables

Gravitational-wave (GW) parameter estimation typically assumes that instrumental noise is Gaussian and stationary. Obvious departures from this idealization are typically handled on a case-by-case basis, e.g., through bespoke procedures to ``clean'' non-Gaussian noise transients (glitches), as was famously the case for the GW170817 neutron-star binary. Although effective, manipulating the data in this way can introduce biases in the inference of key astrophysical properties, like binary precession, and compound in unpredictable ways when combining multiple observations; alternative procedures free of the same biases, like joint inference of noise and signal properties, have so far proved too computationally expensive to execute at scale. Here we take a different approach: rather than explicitly modeling individual non-Gaussianities to then apply the traditional GW likelihood, we seek to learn the true distribution of instrumental noise without presuming Gaussianity and stationarity in the first place. Assuming only noise additivity, we employ score-based diffusion models to learn an empirical noise distribution directly from detector data and then combine it with a deterministic waveform model to provide an unbiased estimate of the likelihood function. We validate the method by performing inference on a subset of GW parameters from 400 mock observations, containing real LIGO noise from either the Livingston or Hanford detectors. We show that the proposed method can recover the true parameters even in the presence of loud glitches, and that the inference is unbiased over a population of signals without applying any cleaning to the data. This work provides a promising avenue for extracting unbiased source properties in future GW observations over the coming decade., Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures

Correlations between galaxies and their supermassive black holes (SMBHs) have been observed, but the causal mechanisms remained unclear. The emerging field of causal inference now enables examining these relationships using observational data. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and a state-of-the-art dataset, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and SMBH masses. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties influence SMBH growth, while in spiral galaxies, SMBHs affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. These findings support theoretical models of active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution and suggest further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations., Comment: 34 pages, 20 figures, submitted for peer-review

Recent advances in machine learning algorithms have unlocked new insights in observational astronomy by allowing astronomers to probe new frontiers. In this article, we present a methodology to disentangle the intrinsic X-ray spectrum of galaxy clusters from the instrumental response function. Employing state-of-the-art modeling software and data mining techniques of the Chandra data archive, we construct a set of 100,000 mock Chandra spectra. We train a recurrent inference machine (RIM) to take in the instrumental response and mock observation and output the intrinsic X-ray spectrum. The RIM can recover the mock intrinsic spectrum below the 1-$\sigma$ error threshold; moreover, the RIM reconstruction of the mock observations are indistinguishable from the observations themselves. To further test the algorithm, we deconvolve extracted spectra from the central regions of the galaxy group NGC 1550, known to have a rich X-ray spectrum, and the massive galaxy clusters Abell 1795. Despite the RIM reconstructions consistently remaining below the 1-$\sigma$ noise level, the recovered intrinsic spectra did not align with modeled expectations. This discrepancy is likely attributable to the RIM's method of implicitly encoding prior information within the neural network. This approach holds promise for unlocking new possibilities in accurate spectral reconstructions and advancing our understanding of complex X-ray cosmic phenomena., Comment: Submitted to AJ

Computer programming initially required humans to directly translate their goals into machine code. These goals could have easily been expressed as a written (or human) language directive. Computers, however, had no capacity to satisfactorily interpret written language. Large language model's provide exactly this capability; automatic generation of computer programs or even assembly code from written language directives. This research examines dynamic code execution of written language directives within the context of a running application. It implements a text editor whose business logic is purely backed by large language model prompts. That is, the program's execution uses prompts and written language directives to dynamically generate application logic at the point in time it is needed. The research clearly shows how written language directives, backed by a large language model, offer radically new programming and operating system paradigms. For example, empowerment of users to directly implement requirements via written language directives, thus supplanting the need for a team ofprogrammers, a release schedule and the like. Or, new security mechanisms where static executables, always a target for reverse engineering or fuzzing, no longer exist. They are replaced by ephemeral executables that may continually change, be completely removed, and are easily updated., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures

Cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, while the current state-of-the art methodology for generating theoretical predictions for the large scale structures of the Universe, are among the most expensive simulation tools, requiring upwards of 100 millions CPU hours per simulation. N-body simulations, which exclusively model dark matter and its purely gravitational interactions, represent a less resource-intensive alternative, however, they do not model galaxies, and as such cannot directly be compared to observations. In this study, we use conditional score-based models to learn a mapping from N-body to hydrodynamical simulations, specifically from dark matter density fields to the observable distribution of galaxies. We demonstrate that our model is capable of generating galaxy fields statistically consistent with hydrodynamical simulations at a fraction of the computational cost, and demonstrate our emulator is significantly more precise than traditional emulators over the scales 0.36 $h\ \text{Mpc}^{-1}$ $\leq$ k $\leq$ 3.88 $h\ \text{Mpc}^{-1}$., Comment: 7+4 pages, 3+1 figures, accepted at the ICML 2024 Workshop AI4Science

Bayesian inference for inverse problems hinges critically on the choice of priors. In the absence of specific prior information, population-level distributions can serve as effective priors for parameters of interest. With the advent of machine learning, the use of data-driven population-level distributions (encoded, e.g., in a trained deep neural network) as priors is emerging as an appealing alternative to simple parametric priors in a variety of inverse problems. However, in many astrophysical applications, it is often difficult or even impossible to acquire independent and identically distributed samples from the underlying data-generating process of interest to train these models. In these cases, corrupted data or a surrogate, e.g. a simulator, is often used to produce training samples, meaning that there is a risk of obtaining misspecified priors. This, in turn, can bias the inferred posteriors in ways that are difficult to quantify, which limits the potential applicability of these models in real-world scenarios. In this work, we propose addressing this issue by iteratively updating the population-level distributions by retraining the model with posterior samples from different sets of observations and showcase the potential of this method on the problem of background image reconstruction in strong gravitational lensing when score-based models are used as data-driven priors. We show that starting from a misspecified prior distribution, the updated distribution becomes progressively closer to the underlying population-level distribution, and the resulting posterior samples exhibit reduced bias after several updates., Comment: 17 pages, 15 figures, Submitted to The Astrophysical Journal

The first generation of ELT instruments includes an optical-infrared high-resolution spectrograph, indicated as ELT-HIRES and recently christened ANDES (ArmazoNes high Dispersion Echelle Spectrograph). ANDES consists of three fibre-fed spectrographs ([U]BV, RIZ, YJH) providing a spectral resolution of $\sim$100,000 with a minimum simultaneous wavelength coverage of 0.4-1.8 $\mu$m with the goal of extending it to 0.35-2.4 $\mu$m with the addition of a U arm to the BV spectrograph and a separate K band spectrograph. It operates both in seeing- and diffraction-limited conditions and the fibre feeding allows several, interchangeable observing modes including a single conjugated adaptive optics module and a small diffraction-limited integral field unit in the NIR. Modularity and fibre-feeding allow ANDES to be placed partly on the ELT Nasmyth platform and partly in the Coud\'e room. ANDES has a wide range of groundbreaking science cases spanning nearly all areas of research in astrophysics and even fundamental physics. Among the top science cases, there are the detection of biosignatures from exoplanet atmospheres, finding the fingerprints of the first generation of stars, tests on the stability of Nature's fundamental couplings, and the direct detection of the cosmic acceleration. The ANDES project is carried forward by a large international consortium, composed of 35 Institutes from 13 countries, forming a team of almost 300 scientists and engineers which include the majority of the scientific and technical expertise in the field that can be found in ESO member states., Comment: SPIE astronomical telescope and instrumentation 2024, in press

We developed a state-space age-structured catch-at-length (ACL) assessment model for redfish in NAFO Divisions 3LN. The model was developed to address limitations in the surplus production model that was previously used to assess this stock. The ACL model included temporal variations in recruitment, growth, and mortality rates, which were limitations identified for the surplus production model. Our ACL model revealed some important discrepancies in survey and fishery length compositions. Our model also required large population dynamics process errors to achieve good fits to survey indices and catch estimates, which also demonstrated that additional understanding of these data and other model assumptions is required. As such, we do not propose the ACL model to provide management advice for 3LN redfish, but we do provide research recommendations that should provide a better basis to model the 3LN redfish stock dynamics. Recommendations include implementing sampling programs to determine redfish species/ecotypes in commercial and research survey catches and improving biological sampling for maturity and age., Comment: 27 pages including references, tables, and figures. In addition 12 pages figures in an Appendix

Gravitational lensing is the deflection of light rays due to the gravity of intervening masses. This phenomenon is observed in a variety of scales and configurations, involving any non-uniform mass such as planets, stars, galaxies, clusters of galaxies, and even the large scale structure of the universe. Strong lensing occurs when the distortions are significant and multiple images of the background source are observed. The lens objects must align on the sky of order ~1 arcsecond for galaxy-galaxy lensing, or 10's of arcseonds for cluster-galaxy lensing. As the discovery of lens systems has grown to the low thousands, these systems have become pivotal for precision measurements and addressing critical questions in astrophysics. Notably, they facilitate the measurement of the Universe's expansion rate, dark matter, supernovae, quasars, and the first stars among other topics. With future surveys expected to discover hundreds of thousands of lensing systems, the modelling and simulation of such systems must occur at orders of magnitude larger scale then ever before. Here we present `caustics`, a Python package designed to handle the extensive computational demands of modeling such a vast number of lensing systems., Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, submitted to JOSS

Although the mass growth of supermassive black holes during the Epoch of Reionisation is expected to play a role in shaping the concurrent growth of their host-galaxies, observational evidence of feedback at z$\gtrsim$6 is still sparse. We perform the first multi-scale and multi-phase characterisation of black-hole driven outflows in the $z\sim6.6$ quasar J0923+0402 and assess how these winds impact the cold gas reservoir. We employ the SimBAL spectral synthesis to fit broad absorption line (BAL) features and find a powerful ionized outflow on $\lesssim210$ pc scale, with a kinetic power $\sim2-100$\% of the quasar luminosity. ALMA observations of [CII] emission allow us to study the morphology and kinematics of the cold gas. We detect high-velocity [CII] emission, likely associated with a cold neutral outflow at $\sim0.5-2$ kpc scale in the host-galaxy, and a bright extended [CII] halo with a size of $\sim15$ kpc. For the first time at such an early epoch, we accurately constrain the outflow energetics in both the ionized and the atomic neutral gas phases. We find such energetics to be consistent with expectations for an efficient feedback mechanism, and both ejective and preventative feedback modes are likely at play. The scales and energetics of the ionized and atomic outflows suggest that they might be associated with different quasar accretion episodes. The results of this work indicate that strong black hole feedback is occurring in quasars at $z\gtrsim6$ and is likely responsible for shaping the properties of the cold gas reservoir up to circum-galactic scales., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

Google Search is an important way that people seek information about politics, and Google states that it is ``committed to providing timely and authoritative information on Google Search to help voters understand, navigate, and participate in democratic processes.'' This paper studies the extent to which government-maintained web domains are represented in the online electoral information environment, as captured through 3.45 Google Search result pages collected during the 2022 US midterm elections for 786 locations across the United States. Focusing on state, county, and local government domains that provide locality-specific information, we study not only the extent to which these sources appear in organic search results, but also the extent to which these sources are correctly targeted to their respective constituents. We label misalignment between the geographic area that non-federal domains serve and the locations for which they appear in search results as algorithmic mistargeting, a subtype of algorithmic misjudgement in which the search algorithm targets locality-specific information to users in different (incorrect) locations. In the context of the 2022 US midterm elections, we find that 71% of all occurrences of state, county, and local government sources were mistargeted, with some domains appearing disproportionately often among organic results despite providing locality-specific information that may not be relevant to all voters. However, we also find that mistargeting often occurs in low ranks. We conclude by considering the potential consequences of extensive mistargeting of non-federal government sources and argue that ensuring the correct targeting of these sources to their respective constituents is a critical part of Google's role in facilitating access to authoritative and locally-relevant electoral information.

We propose a comprehensive sample-based method for assessing the quality of generative models. The proposed approach enables the estimation of the probability that two sets of samples are drawn from the same distribution, providing a statistically rigorous method for assessing the performance of a single generative model or the comparison of multiple competing models trained on the same dataset. This comparison can be conducted by dividing the space into non-overlapping regions and comparing the number of data samples in each region. The method only requires samples from the generative model and the test data. It is capable of functioning directly on high-dimensional data, obviating the need for dimensionality reduction. Significantly, the proposed method does not depend on assumptions regarding the density of the true distribution, and it does not rely on training or fitting any auxiliary models. Instead, it focuses on approximating the integral of the density (probability mass) across various sub-regions within the data space., Comment: 14 pages, 13 figures

Over the last three decades, case-crossover designs have found many applications in health sciences, especially in air pollution epidemiology. They are typically used, in combination with partial likelihood techniques, to define a conditional logistic model for the responses, usually health outcomes, conditional on the exposures. Despite the fact that conditional logistic models have been shown equivalent, in typical air pollution epidemiology setups, to specific instances of the well-known Poisson time series model, it is often claimed that they cannot allow for overdispersion. This paper clarifies the relationship between case-crossover designs, the models that ensue from their use, and overdispersion. In particular, we propose to relax the assumption of independence between individuals traditionally made in case-crossover analyses, in order to explicitly introduce overdispersion in the conditional logistic model. As we show, the resulting overdispersed conditional logistic model coincides with the overdispersed, conditional Poisson model, in the sense that their likelihoods are simple re-expressions of one another. We further provide the technical details of a Bayesian implementation of the proposed case-crossover model, which we use to demonstrate, by means of a large simulation study, that standard case-crossover models can lead to dramatically underestimated coverage probabilities, while the proposed models do not. We also perform an illustrative analysis of the association between air pollution and morbidity in Toronto, Canada, which shows that the proposed models are more robust than standard ones to outliers such as those associated with public holidays.

We present a performant, general-purpose gradient-guided nested sampling algorithm, ${\tt GGNS}$, combining the state of the art in differentiable programming, Hamiltonian slice sampling, clustering, mode separation, dynamic nested sampling, and parallelization. This unique combination allows ${\tt GGNS}$ to scale well with dimensionality and perform competitively on a variety of synthetic and real-world problems. We also show the potential of combining nested sampling with generative flow networks to obtain large amounts of high-quality samples from the posterior distribution. This combination leads to faster mode discovery and more accurate estimates of the partition function., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures. Code available at https://github.com/Pablo-Lemos/GGNS

Symmetries have been leveraged to improve the generalization of neural networks through different mechanisms from data augmentation to equivariant architectures. However, despite their potential, their integration into neural solvers for partial differential equations (PDEs) remains largely unexplored. We explore the integration of PDE symmetries, known as Lie point symmetries, in a major family of neural solvers known as physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). We propose a loss function that informs the network about Lie point symmetries in the same way that PINN models try to enforce the underlying PDE through a loss function. Intuitively, our symmetry loss ensures that the infinitesimal generators of the Lie group conserve the PDE solutions. Effectively, this means that once the network learns a solution, it also learns the neighbouring solutions generated by Lie point symmetries. Empirical evaluations indicate that the inductive bias introduced by the Lie point symmetries of the PDEs greatly boosts the sample efficiency of PINNs., Comment: NeurIPS 2023

We explore the use of a Neural Ratio Estimator (NRE) to determine the Hubble constant ($H_0$) in the context of time delay cosmography. Assuming a Singular Isothermal Ellipsoid (SIE) mass profile for the deflector, we simulate time delay measurements, image position measurements, and modeled lensing parameters. We train the NRE to output the posterior distribution of $H_0$ given the time delay measurements, the relative Fermat potentials (calculated from the modeled parameters and the measured image positions), the deflector redshift, and the source redshift. We compare the accuracy and precision of the NRE with traditional explicit likelihood methods in the limit where the latter is tractable and reliable, using Gaussian noise to emulate measurement uncertainties in the input parameters. The NRE posteriors track the ones from the conventional method and, while they show a slight tendency to overestimate uncertainties, they can be combined in a population inference without bias., Comment: 5+3 pages, 2+2 figures, Accepted (spotlight talk) for the Machine Learning for Astrophysics Workshop at the 40th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2023)

We present AstroPhot, a fast, powerful, and user-friendly Python based astronomical image photometry solver. AstroPhot incorporates automatic differentiation and GPU (or parallel CPU) acceleration, powered by the machine learning library PyTorch. Everything: AstroPhot can fit models for sky, stars, galaxies, PSFs, and more in a principled Chi^2 forward optimization, recovering Bayesian posterior information and covariance of all parameters. Everywhere: AstroPhot can optimize forward models on CPU or GPU; across images that are large, multi-band, multi-epoch, rotated, dithered, and more. All at once: The models are optimized together, thus handling overlapping objects and including the covariance between parameters (including PSF and galaxy parameters). A number of optimization algorithms are available including Levenberg-Marquardt, Gradient descent, and No-U-Turn MCMC sampling. With an object-oriented user interface, AstroPhot makes it easy to quickly extract detailed information from complex astronomical data for individual images or large survey programs. This paper outlines novel features of the AstroPhot code and compares it to other popular astronomical image modeling software. AstroPhot is open-source, fully Python based, and freely accessible here: https://github.com/Autostronomy/AstroPhot, Comment: 18 Pages, 9 figures, published in MNRAS

Cox models with time-dependent coefficients and covariates are widely used in survival analysis. In high-dimensional settings, sparse regularization techniques are employed for variable selection, but existing methods for time-dependent Cox models lack flexibility in enforcing specific sparsity patterns (i.e., covariate structures). We propose a flexible framework for variable selection in time-dependent Cox models, accommodating complex selection rules. Our method can adapt to arbitrary grouping structures, including interaction selection, temporal, spatial, tree, and directed acyclic graph structures. It achieves accurate estimation with low false alarm rates. We develop the sox package, implementing a network flow algorithm for efficiently solving models with complex covariate structures. sox offers a user-friendly interface for specifying grouping structures and delivers fast computation. Through examples, including a case study on identifying predictors of time to all-cause death in atrial fibrillation patients, we demonstrate the practical application of our method with specific selection rules., Comment: 33 pages (with 15 pages of appendix),15 tables, 4 figures

Dark matter structures within strong gravitational lens galaxies and along their line of sight leave a gravitational imprint on the multiple images of lensed sources. Strong gravitational lensing provides, therefore, a key test of different dark matter models in a way that is independent of the baryonic content of matter structures on subgalactic scales. In this chapter, we describe how galaxy-scale strong gravitational lensing observations are sensitive to the physical nature of dark matter. We provide a historical perspective of the field, and review its current status. We discuss the challenges and advances in terms of data, treatment of systematic errors and theoretical predictions, that will enable one to deliver a stringent and robust test of different dark matter models in the near future. With the advent of the next generation of sky surveys, the number of known strong gravitational lens systems is expected to increase by several orders of magnitude. Coupled with high-resolution follow-up observations, these data will provide a key opportunity to constrain the properties of dark matter with strong gravitational lensing.

Reconstructing the initial conditions of the universe is a key problem in cosmology. Methods based on simulating the forward evolution of the universe have provided a way to infer initial conditions consistent with present-day observations. However, due to the high complexity of the inference problem, these methods either fail to sample a distribution of possible initial density fields or require significant approximations in the simulation model to be tractable, potentially leading to biased results. In this work, we propose the use of score-based generative models to sample realizations of the early universe given present-day observations. We infer the initial density field of full high-resolution dark matter N-body simulations from the present-day density field and verify the quality of produced samples compared to the ground truth based on summary statistics. The proposed method is capable of providing plausible realizations of the early universe density field from the initial conditions posterior distribution marginalized over cosmological parameters and can sample orders of magnitude faster than current state-of-the-art methods., Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures

Endoscopic video recordings are widely used in minimally invasive robot-assisted surgery, but when the endoscope is outside the patient's body, it can capture irrelevant segments that may contain sensitive information. To address this, we propose a framework that accurately detects out-of-body frames in surgical videos by leveraging self-supervision with minimal data labels. We use a massive amount of unlabeled endoscopic images to learn meaningful representations in a self-supervised manner. Our approach, which involves pre-training on an auxiliary task and fine-tuning with limited supervision, outperforms previous methods for detecting out-of-body frames in surgical videos captured from da Vinci X and Xi surgical systems. The average F1 scores range from 96.00 to 98.02. Remarkably, using only 5% of the training labels, our approach still maintains an average F1 score performance above 97, outperforming fully-supervised methods with 95% fewer labels. These results demonstrate the potential of our framework to facilitate the safe handling of surgical video recordings and enhance data privacy protection in minimally invasive surgery., Comment: A 15-page journal article submitted to Journal of Medical Robotics Research (JMRR)