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Significant tsunamis in Northern Adriatic are rare and only a few historical events were reported in the literature, with sources mostly located along with central and southern parts of the Adriatic coasts. Recently, a tsunami alert system has been established for the whole Mediterranean area; however, a detailed description of the potential impact of tsunami waves on coastal areas is still missing for several sites. This study aims at modelling the hazard associated with possible tsunamis, generated by offshore earthquakes, with the purpose of contributing to tsunami risk assessment for selected urban areas located along the Northeastern Adriatic coasts. Tsunami modelling is performed by the NAMI DANCE software, which allows accounting for seismic source properties, variable bathymetry, and non-linear effects in waves propagation. Preliminary hazard scenarios at the shoreline are developed for the coastal areas of Northeastern Italy and at selected cities (namely Trieste, Monfalcone, Lignano and Grado). A wide set of potential tsunamigenic sources of tectonic origin, located in three distance ranges (namely at Adriatic-wide, regional and local scales), are considered for the modelling; sources are defined according to available literature, which includes catalogues of historical tsunami and existing active faults databases. Accordingly, a preliminary set of tsunami-related parameters and maps are obtained (e.g. maximum run-up, arrival times, synthetic mareograms), relevant towards planning mitigation actions at the selected sites., Comment: 31 pages, 15 figures and 4 tables

The productivity of a magnitude $m$ event can be characterized in term of triggered events of magnitude above $m-\Delta$: it is the number of direct "descendants" $\nu_\Delta$ and the number of all "descendants" $V_\Delta$. There is evidence in favour of the discrete exponential distribution for both $\nu_\Delta$ and $V_\Delta$ with a dominant magnitude $m$ (the case of aftershock cluster). We consider the general Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model adapted to any distribution of $\nu_\Delta$. It turns out that the branching structure of the model excludes the possibility of having exponential distributions for both productivity characteristics at once. We have analytically investigated the features of the $V_\Delta$ distribution within a wide class of ETAS models. We show the fundamental difference in tail behavior of the $V_\Delta$-distributions for general-type clusters and clusters with a dominant initial magnitude: the tail is heavy in the former case and light in the latter. The real data demonstrate the possibilities of this kind. This result provides theoretical and practical constraints for distributional analysis of $V_\Delta$., Comment: Corresponding author: George Molchan (email: molchan@mitp.ru), 22 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Geophysical Journal International

Earthquakes cannot be predicted with precision, but algorithms exist for intermediate-term middle range prediction of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold, based on seismicity patterns. Few years ago, a first attempt was made in the framework of project SISMA, funded by Italian Space Agency, to jointly use seismological tools, like CN algorithm and scenario earthquakes, and geodetic methods and techniques, like GPS and SAR monitoring, in order to effectively constrain priority areas where to concentrate prevention and seismic risk mitigation. We present a further development of integration of seismological and geodetic information, clearly showing the contribution of geodesy to the understanding and prediction of earthquakes. As a relevant application, the seismic crisis that started in Central Italy in August 2016 is considered in a retrospective analysis. Differently from the much more common approach, here GPS data are not used to estimate the standard 2D velocity and strain field in the area, but to reconstruct the velocity and strain pattern along transects, which are properly oriented according to the a priori information about the known tectonic setting. Overall, the analysis of the available geodetic data indicates that it is possible to highlight the velocity variation and the related strain accumulation in the area of Amatrice event, within the area alarmed by CN since November 1st, 2012. The considered counter examples, across CN alarmed and not-alarmed areas, do not show any comparable spatial acceleration localized trend. Therefore, we show that the combined analysis of the results of CN prediction algorithms, with those from the processing of adequately dense and permanent GNSS network data, may allow the routine highlight in advance of the strain accumulation. Thus it is possible to significantly reduce the size of the CN alarmed areas., Comment: Added 1 reference

Seasonal patterns associated with stress modulation, as evidenced by earthquake occurrence, have been detected in regions characterized by present day mountain building and glacial retreat in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Himalaya and the Alps, seismicity is peaking in spring and summer; opposite behaviour is observed in the Apennines. This diametrical behaviour, confirmed by recent strong earthquakes, well correlates with the dominant tectonic regime: peak in spring and summer in shortening areas, peak in fall and winter in extensional areas. The analysis of the seasonal effect is extended to several shortening (e.g. Zagros and Caucasus) and extensional regions, and counter-examples from regions where no seasonal modulation is expected (e.g. Tropical Atlantic Ridge). This study generalizes to different seismotectonic settings the early observations made about short-term (seasonal) and long-term (secular) modulation of seismicity and confirms, with some statistical significance, that snow and ice thaw may cause crustal deformations that modulate the occurrence of major earthquakes., Comment: 15 pages; 8 figures; 3 tables

The paper by Taroni et al. (2016) considers results of forward prediction of Italian strong earthquakes by CN algorithm with the declared intent of providing "a careful assessment of CN prediction performances... using standard testing procedures". Given the very limited number of target events within each region, however, the considered situation is non statistical, and a priori it is clear that the standard statistical methods are not effective here. The attempt to replace the standard approaches by Pari-mutuel Gambling Score (PGS) method leads to almost complete loss of information about predicted earthquakes, even for a large sample of target events. Therefore, the conclusions based on PGS, are untenable., Comment: 4 pages, 1 table. Submitted to Annals of Geophysics

A scenario-based Neo-Deterministic approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) is available nowadays, which permits considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of attenuation relations and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking, including reliable estimates of ground displacement, readily applicable to complete engineering analysis. Based on the neo-deterministic approach, an operational integrated procedure for seismic hazard assessment has been developed that allows for the definition of time dependent scenarios of ground shaking, through the routine updating of earthquake predictions, performed by means of the algorithms CN and M8S. The integrated NDSHA procedure for seismic input definition, which is currently applied to the Italian territory, combines different pattern recognition techniques, designed for the space-time identification of strong earthquakes, with algorithms for the realistic modeling of ground motion. Accordingly, a set of deterministic scenarios of ground motion at bedrock, which refers to the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted area, is defined both at regional and local scale. CN and M8S predictions, as well as the related time-dependent ground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are routinely updated since 2006. The prospective application of the time-dependent NDSHA approach provides information that can be useful in assigning priorities for timely mitigation actions and, at the same time, allows for a rigorous validation of the proposed methodology. The results from real-time testing of the time-dependent NDSHA scenarios are illustrated with specific reference to the August 24th, 2016 Central Italy earthquake., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures. The paper arXiv:1406.2932 provides a basic reference for this report

Objective testing is a key issue in the process of revision and improvement of seismic hazard assessments. Therefore we continue the rigorous comparative analysis of past and newly available hazard maps for the territory of Italy against the seismic activity observed in reality. The final Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) results and the most recent version of Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project maps, along with the reference hazard maps for the Italian seismic code, all obtained by probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), are cross-compared to the three ground shaking maps based on the duly physically and mathematically rooted neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA). These eight hazard maps for Italy are tested against the available data on ground shaking. The results of comparison between predicted macroseismic intensities and those reported for past earthquakes (in the time interval from 1000 to 2014 year) show that models provide rather conservative estimates, which tend to over-estimate seismic hazard at the ground shaking levels below the MCS intensity IX. Only exception is represented by the neo-deterministic maps associated with a fixed return period of 475 or 2475 years, which provide a better fit to observations, at the cost of model consistent 10% or 2% cases of exceedance respectively. In terms of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit criterion, although all of the eight hazard maps differ significantly from the distribution of the observed ground shaking reported in the available Italian databases, the NDSHA approach appears to outscore significantly the PSHA one., Comment: Proceedings of the International School and Workshop on *Nonlinear Mathematical Physics and Natural Hazards* (Sofia, Bulgaria - 28 Nov. - 2 Dec. 2013)

The reliable statistical characterization of the spatial and temporal properties of large earthquakes occurrence is one of the most debated issues in seismic hazard assessment, due to the unavoidably limited observations from past events. We show that pattern recognition techniques, which are designed in a formal and testable way, may provide significant space-time constraints about impending strong earthquakes. This information, when combined with physically sound methods for ground shaking computation, like the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA), may produce effectively preventive seismic hazard maps. Pattern recognition analysis of morphostructural data provide quantitative and systematic criteria for identifying the areas prone to the largest events, taking into account a wide set of possible geophysical and geological data, whilst the formal identification of precursory seismicity patterns (by means of CN and M8S algorithms), duly validated by prospective testing, provides useful constraints about impending strong earthquakes at the intermediate space-time scale. According to a multi-scale approach, the information about the areas where a strong earthquake is likely to occur can be effectively integrated with different observations (e.g. geodetic and satellite data), including regional scale modeling of the stress field variations and of the seismic ground shaking, so as to identify a set of priority areas for detailed investigations of short-term precursors at local scale and for microzonation studies. Results from the pattern recognition of earthquake prone areas (M>=5.0) in the Po plain (Northern Italy), as well as from prospective testing and validation of the time-dependent NDSHA scenarios are presented., Comment: 33 pages, 7 Figures, 9 Tables. Submitted to Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica e Applicata (BGTA)