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Urolithiasis is a heat-specific disease. Exploring heat-related urolithiasis susceptibility subtypes, economic burden, and modifying factors could assist governments in targeting interventions to reduce the heat-related health risks of urolithiasis morbidity. We collected data on 23,492 patients with upper urinary tract stones (main subtypes of urolithiasis) from 2013 to 2017 in Nanjing, China. We adopted generalized additive quasi-Poisson models to examine the associations between daily mean temperatures and morbidity of upper urinary tract stones, while generalized additive Gaussian models were used to explore the relationships between temperatures and log-transformed medical costs. We examined the modification effects of disease subtypes (kidney and ureteral calculus), sex, and age through stratified analyses and the modification effects of other meteorological factors by introducing interaction terms in the models. We found that short-term summer heat exposure has a statistically significant effect on ureteral calculus morbidity but not on kidney calculus morbidity. For ureter calculus, a 1 °C temperature increase was associated with a 4.36% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.94%, 6.83%) increase in daily hospitalization and a 5.44% (95% CI: 2.71%, 8.25%) increase in daily medical costs. The attributable fraction associated with heat (greater than the median value of daily mean temperature, 26.8 °C) was 7.85% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 3.64%, 11.44%) for hospitalization and 9.36% (95% eCI: 4.91%, 13.14%) for medical costs. The effects of heat on ureter calculus morbidity were significantly higher among the males and those with high sunshine duration than females and those with low sunshine duration. Short-term summer heat exposure was associated with increased morbidity and medical costs of ureteral calculus. Relevant government organizations should take effective intervention measures, including community health education, to reduce the health hazards and economic losses caused by heat.

Summary: Background: China has the largest number of dementia patients in the world, posing a significant health and economic burden. Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other dementia patients face a higher risk of mortality during heatwaves, but relevant studies on this topic have been limited so far. Methods: The study extracted data from the China Cause of Death Reporting System (CDRS) on deaths of AD and other dementia patients aged 60 years and above between 2013 and 2020. Using an individual-level, time-stratified, and case-crossover study design, the effects of heatwaves across nine scenarios on dementia mortality were quantified by conditional logistic regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). Additionally, the attributable fractions (AFs) of deaths due to heatwaves were calculated. Findings: A total of 399,036 death cases were reported caused by AD and other dementias during the study period. It was found that heatwaves significantly increased the risk of death among people with AD and other dementias. As the intensities and durations of the heatwaves increased, the lag0-7 cumulative odds ratios (CORs) of mortality increased progressively from 1.140 (95% CI: 1.118, 1.163) under the mildest heatwave to 1.459 (95% CI: 1.403, 1.518) under the most severe one, across nine heatwave scenarios examined. Additionally, under specific heatwave scenarios, sex and regions modified the mortality risk, but no significant age differences were observed. The AFs of AD and other dementia mortality due to milder heatwaves were lower compared to more severe heatwaves, ranging from 12.281% (95% CI: 10.555%, 14.015%) to 31.460% (95% CI: 28.724%, 34.124%). Interpretation: The study provided critical insights into the substantial increase in heatwave-related mortality among AD and other dementia patients during and after heatwave events. The results from our quantitative analyses will provide needed scientific evidence for policymakers and practitioners to develop relevant policies and guidelines to protect the health and well-beings of vulnerable populations in future in the context of both seasonal changes and long-term climate change. Funding: This work was supported by the Project of Prevention and Intervention on Major Diseases for Elderly in China, NCNCD [00240201307], the National Key Research and Development Program of China [2022YFC2602301, 2023YFC2308703] and the Science and Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China [2017FY101201].

Abstract Endowing textiles with perceptual function, similar to human skin, is crucial for the development of next-generation smart wearables. To date, the creation of perceptual textiles capable of sensing potential dangers and accurately pinpointing finger touch remains elusive. In this study, we present the design and fabrication of intelligent perceptual textiles capable of electrically responding to external dangers and precisely detecting human touch, based on conductive silk fibroin-based ionic hydrogel (SIH) fibers. These fibers possess excellent fracture strength (55 MPa), extensibility (530%), stable and good conductivity (0.45 S·m–1) due to oriented structures and ionic incorporation. We fabricated SIH fiber-based protective textiles that can respond to fire, water, and sharp objects, protecting robots from potential injuries. Additionally, we designed perceptual textiles that can specifically pinpoint finger touch, serving as convenient human-machine interfaces. Our work sheds new light on the design of next-generation smart wearables and the reshaping of human-machine interfaces.

Summary: Background: Ross River virus (RRV), Australia's most notifiable vector-borne disease transmitted through mosquito bites, has seen increased transmission due to rising temperatures. Quantifying the burden of RRV infection attributable to increasing temperatures (both current and future) is pivotal to inform prevention strategies in the context of climate change. Methods: As RRV-related deaths are rare in Australia, we utilised years lived with disability (YLDs) associated with RRV infection data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Burden of Disease database between 2003 and 2018. We obtained relative risks per 1 °C temperature increase in RRV infection from a previous meta-analysis. Exposure distributions for each Köppen-Geiger climate zone were calculated separately and compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution to calculate RRV burden attributable to increasing temperatures during the baseline period (2003–2018), and projected future burdens for the 2030s and 2050s under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), two adaptation scenarios, and different population growth series. Findings: During the baseline period (2003–2018), increasing mean temperatures contributed to 35.8 (±0.5) YLDs (19.1%) of the observed RRV burden in Australia. The mean temperature attributable RRV burden varied across climate zones and jurisdictions. Under both RCP scenarios, the projected RRV burden is estimated to increase in the future despite adaptation scenarios. By the 2050s, without adaptation, the RRV burden could reach 45.8 YLDs under RCP4.5 and 51.1 YLDs under RCP8.5. Implementing a 10% adaptation strategy could reduce RRV burden to 41.8 and 46.4 YLDs, respectively. Interpretation: These findings provide scientific evidence for informing policy decisions and guiding resource allocation for mitigating the future RRV burden. The current findings underscore the need to develop location-specific adaptation strategies for climate-sensitive disease control and prevention. Funding: Australian Research Council Discovery Program.

The eighth experiment of the SINQ Target Irradiation Program (STIP-VIII) included a total of 941 specimens from 25 steels, 8 zircaloys, 6 tungsten based alloys (W-alloys) and 2 silicon carbide (SiC) composites. Specimens were prepared in 2016 and 2017. Irradiation was carried out in SINQ Target-13 in two periods: June 26 to December 21, 2018 and July 30 to December 23, 2020. The total proton charge received by Target-13 is 7.8 Ah, corresponding to 1.75×1023 protons. The irradiated specimens were unpacked in 2022 and 2023 and more than 98 % of the specimens were recovered. The specimens were irradiated at temperatures between 100 and 450 °C. The maximum doses are 10.4 dpa for steels, 14.8 dpa for zircaloys, 11.5 dpa for W-alloys, and 3.5 dpa for SiC composites. The He-to-dpa ratio is in the range of 22–42 appm/dpa for steels, 13–16 appm/dpa for zircaloys, 30–36 appm/dpa for W-alloys and 90–125 appm/dpa for SiC composites.

Gut microbes are crucial for human health, which are usually accumulated in urban wastewater systems. Seven wastewater treatment plants in Australia with distinct population obesity rates between 18% and 33% were selected for wastewater sampling and analysis. Human gut microbiome were detected using metagenomic sequencing to investigate their associations with the community obesity rate. To unravel this complex relationship, a range of algorithm models, including linear discriminant analysis effect size (LEfSe), similarity percentage analysis (SIMPER), statistical analysis of metagenomic profiles (STAMP), linear models for microarray and RNA-Seq data analysis (LIMMA), Relief, ratio approach for identifying differential abundance (RAIDA), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), support vector machine (SVM), Boruta, DESeq2 and analysis of compositions of microbiomes with bias correction (ANCOM-BC), were used to identify potential bacterial biomarkers for obesity in the wastewater microbiome. Among these algorithm models, LEfSe, LIMMA, SIMPER and SVM are effective in identifying multiple microbial biomarkers. Specific human gut microbes, including Ruminococcus_E, Agathobacter, Fusicatenibacter, Anaerobutyricum, Blautia_A and Neisseria, were identified as potential consensus microbial biomarkers for obesity in the population. A high obesity rate is mainly characterized by a high abundance of pathogenic bacteria and microorganisms associated with xenobiotic biodegradation and metabolism, endocrine and metabolic diseases, and transcription pathways. This study underscores the innovative potential of leveraging human gut microbes in wastewater as biomarkers for monitoring obesity levels across communities, offering a novel, cost-effective, and indirect approach to public health surveillance.

Identifying temperature-sensitive diseases, vulnerable populations and attributable disease burden is crucial for the development and implementation of tailored climate change adaptation strategies in the context of climate change, especially through both mortality and morbidity analysis by using the data from same regions and populations. We re-analyzed and outlined the whole picture of the impacts of extreme temperatures on both mortality and morbidity among various populations and regions, based on the researches from a well-planned national project of Scientific Survey of Regional Meteorological Sensitive Diseases (SRMSD) with consistent methodology in China. The twenty-four representative regions of the SRMSD project cover all eleven geographical meteorological divisions in the country, including urban and rural areas. In addition to circulatory and respiratory diseases, we found that neurological diseases, injuries, digestive diseases, endocrine diseases, genitourinary diseases, skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases were sensitive to extreme heat, while digestive diseases were sensitive to extreme cold. The extreme temperature-sensitive diseases and the attributable disease burden varied by region. Females and the elderly people (65 years old and above) were more vulnerable to extreme heat when using mortality as a health outcome, whereas males and the young and middle-aged adults were more vulnerable to morbidity risk from heat. Our findings provide important scientific evidence for regional distribution of temperature-sensitive diseases and identification of vulnerable populations in China. It provides evidence and implications of developing regional heat/cold-exposure intervention policies, especially for hospital emergency departments and ambulance services during hot seasons.

There has long been a consensus that translation competence is a multi-componential construct, encompassing linguistic, strategic, and extra-linguistic competence. In this digitalized age, when translators are required to work with complex discourses (e.g., multimodal discourses), the cultivation of translation competence also calls for new insights apart from the traditional face-to-face teaching method. To that end, this study applies the blended learning mode to a translation course so as to enhance students’ translation competence. The application of this blended learning mode is detailed in this article. A quasi-experiment is also carried out to assess the influence of this blended course on the development of participants’ translation competence. Participants’ perceptions of this blended learning mode are also examined. Our results suggest that this blended course improves participants’ translation competence, including their knowledge competence, technological competence, and professional competence. On the whole, participants are satisfied with this learning mode, particularly in terms of the appropriateness, sustainability, and multimodality of the blended course.

Summary: Background: The dual impacts of a warming climate and population ageing lead to an increasing kidney disease prevalence, highlighting the importance of quantifying the burden of kidney disease (BoKD) attributable to high temperature, yet studies on this subject are limited. The study aims to quantify the BoKD attributable to high temperatures in Australia across all states and territories, and project future BoKD under climatic, population and adaptation scenarios. Methods: Data on disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) due to kidney disease, including years of life lost (YLL), and years lived with disability (YLD), were collected during 2003–2018 (baseline) across all states and territories in Australia. The temperature-response association was estimated using a meta-regression model. Future temperature projections were calculated using eight downscaled climate models to estimate changes in attributable BoKD centred around 2030s and 2050s, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), while considering changes in population size and age structure, and human adaptation to climate change. Findings: Over the baseline (2003–2018), high-temperature contributed to 2.7% (Standard Deviation: 0.4%) of the observed BoKD in Australia. The future population attributable fraction and the attributable BoKD, projected using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, showed a gradually increasing trend when assuming no human adaptation. Future projections were most strongly influenced by the population change, with the high temperature-related BoKD increasing by 18.4–67.4% compared to the baseline under constant population and by 100.2–291.2% when accounting for changes in population size and age structure. However, when human adaptation was adopted (from no to partial to full), the high temperature-related BoKD became smaller. Interpretation: It is expected that increasing high temperature exposure will substantially contribute to higher BoKD across Australia, underscoring the urgent need for public health interventions to mitigate the negative health impacts of a warming climate on BoKD. Funding: Australian Research Council Discovery Program.

Summary: Background: Studies have shown that dengue virus transmission increases in association with ambient temperature. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of both high temperatures and heatwave events on dengue transmission in different climate zones globally. Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science from January 1990 to September 20, 2022. We included peer reviewed original observational studies using ecological time series, case crossover, or case series study designs reporting the association of high temperatures and heatwave with dengue and comparing risks over different exposures or time periods. Studies classified as case reports, clinical trials, non-human studies, conference abstracts, editorials, reviews, books, posters, commentaries; and studies that examined only seasonal effects were excluded. Effect estimates were extracted from published literature. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to pool the relative risks (RRs) of dengue infection per 1 °C increase in temperature, and further subgroup analyses were also conducted. The quality and strength of evidence were evaluated following the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology framework. The review protocol has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO). Findings: The study selection process yielded 6367 studies. A total of 106 studies covering more than four million dengue cases fulfilled the inclusion criteria; of these, 54 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. The overall pooled estimate showed a 13% increase in risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11–1.16, I2 = 98.0%) for each 1 °C increase in high temperatures. Subgroup analyses by climate zones suggested greater effects of temperature in tropical monsoon climate zone (RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.11–1.51) and humid subtropical climate zone (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.15–1.25). Heatwave events showed association with an increased risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.08; 95% CI: 0.95–1.23, I2 = 88.9%), despite a wide confidence interval. The overall strength of evidence was found to be “sufficient” for high temperatures but “limited” for heatwaves. Our results showed that high temperatures increased the risk of dengue infection, albeit with varying risks across climate zones and different levels of national income. Interpretation: High temperatures increased the relative risk of dengue infection. Future studies on the association between temperature and dengue infection should consider local and regional climate, socio-demographic and environmental characteristics to explore vulnerability at local and regional levels for tailored prevention. Funding: Australian Research Council Discovery Program.

Abstract Objective: To examine stakeholder perspectives on the factors of an effective approach to reduce Q fever risk including disease prevention, and the perceived potential benefits of a One Health framework. Methods: Semi‐structured interviews were conducted with general practitioners (GPs), veterinarians, government authorities, researchers, and representatives from the farming industry. Transcripts were thematically analysed. Results: Six major themes were identified as key factors underpinning an effective approach to Q fever: understanding Q fever burden; effective surveillance; the role of general practitioners and other stakeholders; barriers and enablers of vaccination; an integrated approach; and increased Q fever awareness. Most participants perceived GPs to play a central role in disease detection, notification, treatment and prevention through health promotion and vaccination, despite GPs acknowledging limited awareness of Q fever. Participants suggested leadership is required from the Department of Health (DoH) to foster inter‐sectoral communication and collaboration. Conclusions: A One Health approach holds opportunities for zoonosis prevention. We recommend that medical curricula and professional development be enhanced, zoonosis working group networks strengthened, government‐industry partnerships established, and relevant stakeholders included within an integrated program. Implications for public health: Updating medical curricula, GP professional development programs and inter‐sectoral collaboration led by health departments may reduce Q fever burden.

Abstract Objective: To examine the cost benefits of a heat health warning system (HHWS) in South Australia. Methods: Information from key agencies was used to estimate the costs associated with the South Australian HHWS, including for three targeted public health interventions. Health cost savings were estimated based on previously reported HHWS‐attributable reductions in hospital and emergency department (ED) admissions and ambulance callouts. Results: The estimated cost for a one‐week activation of the HHWS was AU$593,000. Activation costs compare favourably with the potential costs averted through HHWS‐attributable reductions in hospital admissions and ambulance callouts with an estimated benefit‐cost ratio of 2.0–3.3. Conclusions: On the basis of estimated cost benefit, the South Australian HHWS is a no‐regret public health response to heatwaves. Implications for public health: As global temperatures rise there are likely to be significant health impacts from more frequent and intense heatwaves. This study indicates that HHWSs incorporating targeted supports for vulnerable groups are likely to be cost‐effective public health interventions.

Evidence of the impact of ambient temperatures on emergency ambulance calls (EACs) in developing countries contributes to the improvement and complete understanding of the acute health effects of temperatures. This study aimed to examine the impacts and burden of heat on EACs in China, quantify the contributions of regional modifiers, and identify the vulnerable populations. A semi-parametric generalized additive model with a Poisson distribution was used to analyze the city-specific impacts of the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) on EACs in June–August in 2014–2017. Stratified analyses by sex and age were performed to identify the vulnerable sub-populations. Meta-analysis was undertaken to illustrate the pooled associations. Further subgroup analysis, stratified by climate, latitude, and per capita disposable income (PCDI), and meta-regression analysis were conducted to explore the regional heterogeneity and quantify the contributions of possible modifiers. The city- and region-specific attributable fractions of EACs attributable to heat were calculated. Strong associations were observed between the daily Tmax and total EACs in all cities. A total of 11.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 11.2%–12.3%) of EACs were attributed to high temperatures in ten Chinese cities, and the central region with a low level of PCDI had the highest attributable fraction of 17.8% (95% CI: 17.2%–18.4%). People living in the central region with lower PCDI, and those aged 18–44 and 0–6 years were more vulnerable to heat than the others. The combined effects of PCDI, temperature, and latitude contributed 88.6% of the regional heterogeneity. The results complemented the understanding of the burden of EACs attributable to heat in developing countries and the quantitative contribution of regional modifiers.

Climate change with increasing temperature is making a significant impact on human health, including more heat-related diseases, and increasing the burden on the healthcare system. Although many studies have explored the association between increasing temperatures and negative health outcomes, research on the associated costs of heat-related diseases remains relatively sparse. Furthermore, estimations of future costs associated with heat-attributable hospital healthcare have not been well explored. This study used a distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate heat-attributable hospital healthcare costs in Perth, Western Australia. Using 2006–2012 as the baseline, future costings for 2026–2032 and 2046–2052 were estimated under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Higher temperatures were found to be associated with increased hospital healthcare costs. The total hospital costs attributable to heat over the baseline period 2006–2012 was estimated to be 79.5 million AUD, with costs for mental health hospitalizations being the largest contributor of the heat-related conditions examined. Costs are estimated to increase substantially to 125.8–129.1 million AUD in 2026–2032, and 174.1–190.3 million AUD by midcentury under climate change scenarios. Our findings of a notable burden of heat-attributable healthcare costs now and in the future emphasize the importance of climate change adaptation measures to reduce the adverse health effects of increasing temperatures and heat exposure on the people of Perth.

Language teacher research is conducive to the development of teachers’ teaching skills and professional careers. Thus, many English teacher education programs require student teachers to do research. However, some empirical findings suggest that English as a foreign language (EFL) student teachers lack research motivation. Consequently, finding suitable interventions to increase their research motivation has become increasingly necessary. In light of the importance of research motivation intervention, this study involved designing an experiment to identify the effect of a value and interest intervention including the sharing of positive research experiences to improve student teachers’ research motivation. Quantitative questionnaires and qualitative semi-structured interviews were used to gather evidence on the change in student teachers’ research motivation during the intervention. The interview data revealed that student teachers’ research motivation was influenced by their belief in the value of research to their teaching practice. The experiment results suggested that student teachers’ intrinsic and extrinsic research motivations both increased after the intervention. However, the intervention was not effective in curbing their failure avoidance tendency. Pedagogical implications of the results are discussed at the end of this article.

Unvaccinated animal science and veterinary students are at risk of Q fever, a vaccine-preventable zoonotic disease transmitted from animals to humans. We investigated students’ perspectives on Q fever prevention using a One Health approach combining animal, human and environmental health. Animal science and veterinary students enrolled at the University of Adelaide in 2019 were invited to participate in an online survey to explore their perceptions about Q fever and prevention strategies. We undertook descriptive analysis and logistic regression. Overall, 46% of students reported little to no knowledge of Q fever. Over three-quarters of students reported transmission of Q fever via aerosol inhalation and animal culling, whilst other modes including sexual transmission between humans (7%) was poorly identified. The majority of students reported exposure to cattle, sheep and goats. Of those who reported vaccination status, 5% veterinary and 61% animal science students were unvaccinated for Q fever. Challenges concerning vaccination included cost, time and access to healthcare with strategies aimed at promoting awareness, improving healthcare access and subsidized and mass vaccination. Knowledge of Q fever among respondents, particularly about disease transmission was suboptimal. As a key principle to One Health approach, adherence to biosecurity guidelines during contact with animals could potentially reduce zoonoses including Q fever transmission. Improving access to Q fever vaccine for unvaccinated students is a priority. Findings underscore that university policy for Q fever vaccination needs to consider subsidized vaccination for both animal science and veterinary students.

We consider the central configurations of the 1+N-body problem, where N bodies are infinitesimal and the remaining one body is dominant. For regular polygon central configurations, we prove that the masses of all the infinitesimal bodies are equal when N is odd and the masses of the alternate infinitesimal bodies must be equal when N is even. Moreover, in the case of N being even, we present the relationship of the mass parameters between two consecutive infinitesimal bodies.

Climate change and its impact on population health have been well explored in China in recent years, especially health risk assessments such as studying its impact on the transmission and development of climate-sensitive infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases. However, knowledge gaps including using morbidity as health indicators (e.g. hospitalisations, ED visits, and ambulance call-outs), identifying disease attributable contributions to climate variability and burden of diseases due to climate change, calculating related healthcare costs, and developing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies need to be addressed. Future research directions could focus on both mitigation and health adaptation studies, such as exploring active transportation and green hospitals, studying health co-benefits, identifying vulnerable populations, prioritizing resource allocation, building healthcare capacity and capability, evaluating intervention effect, developing tailored risk communication strategies and community health education packages for vulnerable communities in the context of climate change.

Vasoactive intestinal polypeptide receptor (VIP1R) is a widely expressed class B G protein-coupled receptor and a drug target for the treatment of inflammatory diseases. Here authors report a cryoelectron microscopy structure of human VIP1R bound to PACAP27 and Gs heterotrimer, which provides insights into PACAP27 binding and VIP receptor activation.

Background: The burden of Q fever on at risk population groups in Australia is substantial, despite the availability of a vaccine. Our objectives were to: (a) describe the epidemiology of notified Q fever cases in South Australia (SA), (b) identify if Q fever infection is associated with occupational exposure, and (c) detect the possible spatial and temporal association of Q fever with livestock density. Methods: Laboratory confirmed Q fever notifications from January 2007 to December 2017 were obtained from the SA Health Department. Q fever notification rates and incidence rate ratios were calculated for gender, notification year, age group, occupation category, and primary exposure suburb. Spatial mapping and analysis of Q fever notifications was undertaken using livestock data, and abattoirs and saleyards located in SA. Results: During the study period 167 Q fever cases were notified. Males predominated (72%), with higher rates observed in the 21–40 year age group (1.52/100,000), and eight cases (5%) reported prior Q fever vaccination. Most frequently listed occupation categories were livestock farmers (35%), and abattoir workers (20%), but in 15% of cases, there was no known occupational risk. Highest notifications (22%) were recorded in the suburb containing an abattoir. The number of goats, cattle and sheep was not associated with Q fever notifications. Conclusions: Q fever predominance among males in their twenties and thirties may indicate vaccination under-coverage among the young workforce possibly due to high turnover of workers. Q fever among those vaccinated raises concerns about vaccine efficacy or potential waning immunity. Our findings are consistent with previous studies highlighting abattoir workers as a high-risk occupational group because of its transient workforce, and low vaccination coverage. Q fever notifications in SA may be unrelated with spatial livestock density. Further One Health research involving veterinary, public health and environmental data is required. Keywords: Q fever, Spatial, Occupational, Livestock, South Australia, One Health

The coordinated development of green technology innovation performance among regions is of great significance for China's sustainable development. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the evaluation and promotion modes for green technology innovation performance. Based on the data of 30 provinces in China, this paper comprehensively evaluates regional green innovation performance and determines the factor configurations that can achieve high green technology innovation performance. This paper constructs an index system of green technology innovation from four aspects (economy, innovation, environment, and social welfare) and measures the results by the entropy weight method. The results show that green technology innovation performance decreases from the eastern region to the western region. At the province level, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Xinjiang have lower performance, while Beijing, Zhejiang and Shanghai have higher performance. The fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis method reveals five configurations that achieve high green technology innovation performance. Specifically, regions with high green technology innovation performance tend to be those with high environmental regulation intensity and high innovation input. When environmental regulation and innovation input are both high, regions should fully consider the technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment. When energy prices is high, regions should give full play to the technology spillover effect of FDI and the transformation of market demand to reduce the pressure of production costs.

Background: Mental health is an important public health issue globally. A potential link between heat exposure and mental health outcomes has been recognised in the scientific literature; however, the associations between heat exposure (both high ambient temperatures and heatwaves) and mental health-related mortality and morbidity vary between studies and locations. Objective: To fill gaps in knowledge, this systematic review aims to summarize the epidemiological evidence and investigate the quantitative effects of high ambient temperatures and heatwaves on mental health-related mortality and morbidity outcomes, while exploring sources of heterogeneity. Methods: A systematic search of peer-reviewed epidemiological studies on heat exposure and mental health outcomes published between January 1990 and November 2020 was conducted using five databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science and PsycINFO). We included studies that examined the association between high ambient temperatures and/or heatwaves and mental health-related mortality and morbidity (e.g. hospital admissions and emergency department visits) in the general population. A range of mental health conditions were defined using ICD-10 classifications. We performed random effects meta-analysis to summarize the relative risks (RRs) in mental health outcomes per 1 °C increase in temperature, and under different heatwaves definitions. We further evaluated whether variables such as age, sex, socioeconomic status, and climate zone may explain the observed heterogeneity. Results: The keyword search yielded 4560 citations from which we identified 53 high temperatures/heatwaves studies that comprised over 1.7 million mental health-related mortality and 1.9 million morbidity cases in total. Our findings suggest associations between heat exposures and a range of mental health-related outcomes. Regarding high temperatures, our meta-analysis of study findings showed that for each 1 °C increase in temperature, the mental health-related mortality and morbidity increased with a RR of 1.022 (95%CI: 1.015–1.029) and 1.009 (95%CI: 1.007–1.015), respectively. The greatest mortality risk was attributed to substance-related mental disorders (RR, 1.046; 95%CI: 0.991–1.101), followed by organic mental disorders (RR, 1.033; 95%CI: 1.020–1.046). A 1 °C temperature rise was also associated with a significant increase in morbidity such as mood disorders, organic mental disorders, schizophrenia, neurotic and anxiety disorders. Findings suggest evidence of vulnerability for populations living in tropical and subtropical climate zones, and for people aged more than 65 years. There were significant moderate and high heterogeneities between effect estimates in overall mortality and morbidity categories, respectively. Lower heterogeneity was noted in some subgroups. The magnitude of the effect estimates for heatwaves varied depending on definitions used. The highest effect estimates for mental health-related morbidity was observed when heatwaves were defined as “mean temperature ≥90th percentile for ≥3 days” (RR, 1.753; 95%CI: 0.567–5.421), and a significant effect was also observed when the definition was “mean temperature ≥95th percentile for ≥3 days”, with a RR of 1.064 (95%CI: 1.006–1.123). Conclusions: Our findings support the hypothesis of a positive association between elevated ambient temperatures and/or heatwaves and adverse mental health outcomes. This problem will likely increase with a warming climate, especially in the context of climate change. Further high-quality studies are needed to identify modifying factors of heat impacts.

Background: Livestock farmers are at risk of Q fever, a zoonotic disease transmitted to humans from animals such as cattle, sheep and goats. Australia bears substantial Q fever burden, particularly among farmers. A One Health approach engages cross-sectoral collaboration among animal, human and environmental health and is the preferred framework for Q fever prevention. Methods: Cattle, sheep and goat farmers were invited to participate in an online survey in 2019 to gauge perceptions about Q fever and its prevention. Participants were recruited via membership newsletters and social media. Descriptive analyses and logistic regressions were performed. Results: A total of 351 farmers completed the survey. Most respondents (80%) had been farming for ≥20 years, with sheep and beef cattle their primary stock. 71% reported knowledge of Q fever, and 85% identified transmission through contaminated dust inhalation was highly likely. The majority of respondents (97%) were aware of Q fever vaccine, and 95% agreed it was effective in preventing disease, yet 42% remained unvaccinated. Reported barriers to vaccination included poor access to a trained doctor and time and cost related to vaccination. Most farmers (≥91%) believed that subsidized vaccination and improved awareness would promote higher uptake. Conclusion: While Q fever knowledge among respondents was good, their practices related to airborne transmission prevention were poor. Livestock farmers would benefit from adherence to dust and aerosol transmission prevention practices. One Health partnership between government and industry is needed to promote Q fever awareness and address low vaccination rates among livestock farmers by funding vaccination programs.

Abstract Background Very few studies have focused on the relationship between ambient apparent temperature (AT) and admission of mental and behaviour disorders (MDs). Therefore, a time-series study was conducted in Yancheng, China, to explore the effects of AT on the daily emergency admissions of patients with MDs over the period of 2014–17. Methods A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model (GLM) combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was adopted to explore the associations after adjusting for time trend, day of the week, humidity, sunshine duration, rainfall, holidays and air pollutants. In the subgroup analysis, the modification effects of age and sex were also examined. Results Overall, 8438 cases of MDs emergency admissions were identified. With the apparent temperature with the minimum number of admissions (− 3.4 °C) serving as a reference, a positive correlation emerged between high AT and daily emergency admissions of patients with MDs in Yancheng, China, with the lagged effect of 1 to 5 days. The subgroup analysis demonstrated a positive relationship between AT and MDs emergency admissions among males and individuals younger than 45 years old, with no lagged effect. Conclusions The results will provide important scientific evidence for mental health policy-makers and practitioners for possible intervention, especially among the vulnerable populations.

Background: Dengue is a significant climate-sensitive disease. Public health professionals play an important role in prevention and control of the disease. This study aimed to explore dengue control and prevention in the context of climate change in China. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 630 public health professionals in 2015. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were performed. Results: More than 80% of participants from southwest and central China believed climate change would affect dengue. However, participants from northeast China were less likely to believe so (65%). Sixty-nine percent of participants in Yunnan perceived that dengue had emerged/re-emerged in recent years, compared with 40.6% in Henan and 23.8% in Liaoning. Less than 60% of participants thought current prevention and control programs had been effective. Participants believed mosquitoes in high abundance, imported cases and climate change were main risk factors for dengue in China. Conclusion: There were varying views of dengue in China. Professionals in areas susceptible to dengue were more likely to be concerned about climate change and dengue. Current prevention and control strategies need to be improved. Providing more information for staff in lower levels of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may help in containing a possible increase of dengue. Keywords: Climate change, Dengue control, Infectious disease, Public health professional, China

Background: The link between heat exposure and adverse health outcomes in workers is well documented and a growing body of epidemiological evidence from various countries suggests that extreme heat may also contribute to increased risk of occupational injuries (OI). Previously, there have been no comparative reviews assessing the risk of OI due to extreme heat within a wide range of global climate zones. The present review therefore aims to summarise the existing epidemiological evidence on the impact of extreme heat (hot temperatures and heatwaves (HW)) on OI in different climate zones and to assess the individual risk factors associated with workers and workplace that contribute to heat-associated OI risks. Methods: A systematic review of published peer-reviewed articles that assessed the effects of extreme heat on OI among non-military workers was undertaken using three databases (PubMed, Embase and Scopus) without temporal or geographical limits from database inception until July 2020. Extreme heat exposure was assessed in terms of hot temperatures and HW periods. For hot temperatures, the effect estimates were converted to relative risks (RR) associated with 1 °C increase in temperature above reference values, while for HW, effect estimates were RR comparing heatwave with non-heatwave periods. The patterns of heat associated OI risk were investigated in different climate zones (according to Köppen Geiger classification) based on the study locations and were estimated using random-effects meta-analysis models.Subgroup analyses according to workers’ characteristics (e.g. gender, age group, experience), nature of work (e.g. physical demands, location of work i.e. indoor/outdoor) and workplace characteristics (e.g. industries, business size) were also conducted. Results: A total of 24 studies published between 2005 and 2020 were included in the review. Among these, 22 studies met the eligibility criteria, representing almost 22 million OI across six countries (Australia, Canada, China, Italy, Spain, and USA) and were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled results suggested that the overall risk of OI increased by 1% (RR 1.010, 95% CI: 1.009–1.011) for 1 °C increase in temperature above reference values and 17.4% (RR 1.174, 95% CI: 1.057–1.291) during HW.Among different climate zones, the highest risk of OI during hot temperatures was identified in Humid Subtropical Climates (RR 1.017, 95% CI: 1.014–1.020) followed by Oceanic (RR 1.010, 95% CI: 1.008–1.012) and Hot Mediterranean Climates (RR 1.009, 95% CI: 1.008–1.011). Similarly, Oceanic (RR 1.218, 95% CI: 1.093–1.343) and Humid Subtropical Climates (RR 1.213, 95% CI: 0.995–1.431) had the highest risk of OI during HW periods. No studies assessing the risk of OI in Tropical regions were found. The effects of hot temperatures on the risk of OI were acute with a lag effect of 1–2 days in all climate zones. Young workers (age

Despite most Indonesian women now receiving antenatal care on the nationally recommended four occasions and being delivered by skilled birth attendants, the nation's maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is estimated as 177 per 100,000 live births. Recent research in a rural district of Indonesia has indicated that poor service quality due to organizational and personnel factors is now a major determinant of this high MMR. The present research is an in-depth analysis of possible health service organizational and quality of care related causes of death among 30 women admitted to a peak referral hospital in a major Indonesian city. Despite their condition being complex or deteriorating, most of these women arrived at the hospital in a state where it was feasible to prevent death with good quality care. Poor application of protocols, poor information flow from frontline hospitals to the peak referral hospital, delays in emergency care, and delays in management of deteriorating patients were the main contributing factors to these deaths. Pyramidal referrals also contributed, as many women were initially referred to hospitals where their condition could not be effectively managed. While generic quality improvement measures, particularly training and monitoring for rigorous application of clinical protocols (including forward planning for deteriorating patients) will help improve the situation, the districts and hospitals need to develop capacity to assess their local situation. Unless local organisational factors, staff knowledge and skill, blood and blood product availability, and local reasons for delays in providing care are identified, it may not be possible to effectively reduce the adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Background: Health impacts of high temperatures on hospital emergency department visits (EDVs) have been less reported, especially from developing countries. Objectives: To investigate high temperature–EDVs relationship in various regions with different climatic characteristics, to explore the regional differences, to identify vulnerable populations, and to provide scientific evidence for climate change adaptation strategies in China. Methods: Daily data on weather, air pollution and EDVs were collected from 18 sites in China from June to August during 2014–2017. A quasi–Poisson generalized additive regression model was applied to examine the high temperature–EDVs relationship in each site. Site–specific risks of EDVs were pooled using a random effect meta–analysis model. Stratified analyses were performed by gender, age–groups, cause–specific EDVs and regions. Attributable fractions of EDVs due to high temperatures were calculated in different regions. Results: 1 °C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with 1.07% (95% CI, 0.46–1.67%) increase in EDVs across all study regions. The negative health effects from high temperatures were worse for the people living in southern China, in subtropical monsoon climate zone or in counties, with percentage change of 1.96% (95% CI, 0.92–3.02%), 1.35% (95% CI, 0.95–1.76%) and 1.41% (95% CI, 0.48–2.34%), respectively. People under 18 were more vulnerable to high temperatures. Exposure to high temperatures increased EDVs risks from endocrine, respiratory, and digestive diseases and injury. The attributable fraction due to high temperatures was 8.64% for overall EDVs, 11.70% for the people living in southern China, 10.80% for people living in subtropical monsoon climate zone and 12.65% for the county population. Conclusions: Exposure to high temperatures resulted in extra burden to China’s already overloaded hospital emergency departments. More resources are needed to meet increasing demands and effective preventative measurements are warranted to tackle such a challenge. Further studies should pay more attention to both heat and cold-related EDVs risks and socioeconomic cost for better climate change adaptation. Keywords: High temperatures, Emergency department visits, Regional difference, Attributable fraction, China

Abstract Background Extremely high temperatures over many consecutive days have been linked to an increase in renal disease in several cities. This is becoming increasingly relevant with heatwaves becoming longer, more intense, and more frequent with climate change. This study aimed to extend the known relationship between daily temperature and kidney disease to include the incidence of eight temperature-prone specific renal disease categories – total renal disease, urolithiasis, renal failure, acute kidney injury (AKI), chronic kidney disease (CKD), urinary tract infections (UTIs), lower urinary tract infections (LUTIs) and pyelonephritis. Methods Daily data was acquired for maximum, minimum and average temperature over the period of 1 July 2003 to 31 March 2014 during the warm season (October to March) in Adelaide, South Australia. Data for daily admissions to all metropolitan hospitals for renal disease, including 83,519 emergency department admissions and 42,957 inpatient admissions, was also obtained. Renal outcomes were analyzed using time-stratified negative binomial regression models, with the results aggregated by day. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for associations between the number of admissions and daily temperature. Results Increases in daily temperature per 1 °C were associated with an increased incidence for all renal disease categories except for pyelonephritis. Minimum temperature was associated with the greatest increase in renal disease followed by average temperature and then maximum temperature. A 1°C increase in daily minimum temperature was associated with an increase in daily emergency department admissions for AKI (IRR 1.037, 95% CI: 1.026–1.048), renal failure (IRR 1.030, 95% CI: 1.022–1.039), CKD (IRR 1.017, 95% CI: 1.001–1.033) urolithiasis (IRR 1.015, 95% CI: 1.010–1.020), total renal disease (IRR 1.009, 95% CI: 1.006–1.011), UTIs (IRR 1.004, 95% CI: 1.000–1.007) and LUTIs (IRR 1.003, 95% CI: 1.000–1.006). Conclusions An increased frequency of renal disease, including urolithiasis, acute kidney injury and urinary tract infections, is predicted with increasing temperatures from climate change. These results have clinical and public health implications for the management of renal diseases and demand tailored health services. Future research is warranted to analyze individual renal diseases with more comprehensive information regarding renal risk factors, and studies examining mortality for specific renal diseases.

Abstract Background Though there was the significant decrease in the incidence of malaria in central and southwest China during the 1980s and 1990s, there has been a re-emergence of malaria since 2000. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted amongst the staff of eleven Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China to gauge their perceptions regarding the impacts of climate change on malaria transmission and its control and prevention. Descriptive analysis was performed to study CDC staff’s knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and suggestions for malaria control in the face of climate change. Results A majority (79.8%) of CDC staff were concerned about climate change and 79.7% believed the weather was becoming warmer. Most participants (90.3%) indicated climate change had a negative effect on population health, 92.6 and 86.8% considered that increasing temperatures and precipitation would influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases including malaria. About half (50.9%) of the surveyed staff indicated malaria had re-emerged in recent years, and some outbreaks were occurring in new geographic areas. The main reasons for such re-emergence were perceived to be: mosquitoes in high-density, numerous imported cases, climate change, poor environmental conditions, internal migrant populations, and lack of health awareness. Conclusions This study found most CDC staff endorsed the statement that climate change had a negative impact on infectious disease transmission. Malaria had re-emerged in some areas of China, and most of the staff believed that this can be managed. However, high densities of mosquitoes and the continuous increase in imported cases of malaria in local areas, together with environmental changes are bringing about critical challenges to malaria control in China. This study contributes to an understanding of climate change related perceptions of malaria control and prevention amongst CDC staff. It may help to formulate in-house training guidelines, community health promotion programmes and policies to improve the capacity of malaria control and prevention in the face of climate change in China.

Increasing temperature and its impact on population health is an emerging significant public health issue in the context of climate change in Australia. While previous studies have primarily focused on risk assessment, very few studies have evaluated heat-attributable emergency department (ED) visits and associated healthcare costs, or projected future health and economic burdens. This study used a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate heat attributable ED visits and associated healthcare costs from 13 hospitals in Perth, Western Australia, and to project the future healthcare costs in 2030s and 2050s under three climate change scenarios—Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. There were 3697 ED visits attributable to heat (temperatures above 20.5 °C) over the study period 2012–2019, accounting for 4.6% of the total ED visits. This resulted in AU$ 2.9 million in heat-attributable healthcare costs. The number of ED visits projected to occur in the 2030s and 2050s ranges from 5707 to 9421 under different climate change scenarios, which would equate to AU$ 4.6–7.6 million in heat associated healthcare costs. The heat attributable fraction for ED visits and associated healthcare costs would increase from 4.6% and 4.1% in 2010s to 5.0%–6.3% and 4.4%–5.6% in 2030s and 2050s, respectively. Future heat attributable ED visits and associated costs will increase in Perth due to climate change. Excess heat will generate a substantial population health challenge and economic burdens on the healthcare system if there is insufficient heat adaptation. It is vital to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, develop heat-related health interventions and optimize healthcare resources to mitigate the negative impact on the healthcare system and population health in the face of climate change.

Abstract Background Occupational exposure to extreme heat without sufficient protection may not only increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and injuries but also compromise economic productivity. With predictions of more frequent and intense bouts of hot weather, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers’ health and safety. This study aims to investigate workers’ perceptions and behavioural responses towards extreme heat exposure in a warming climate. Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in 2012 in South Australia among selected outdoor industries. Workers’ heat risk perceptions were measured in the following five aspects: concerns about heat exposure, attitudes towards more training, policy and guideline support, the adjustment of work habits, and degree of satisfaction of current preventive measures. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors significantly associated with workers’ heat perceptions. Results A total of 749 respondents participated in this survey, with a response rate of 50.9 %. A little more than half (51.2 %) of respondents were moderately or very much concerned about workplace heat exposure. Factors associated with workers’ heat concerns included age, undertaking very physically demanding work, and the use of personal protective equipment, heat illness history, and injury experience during hot weather. Less than half (43.4 %) of the respondents had received heat-related training. Workers aged 25–54 years and those with previous heat-related illness/injury history showed more supportive attitudes towards heat-related training. The provision of cool drinking water was the most common heat prevention measure. A little more than half (51.4 %) of respondents were satisfied with the current heat prevention measures. About two-thirds (63.8 %) of respondents agreed that there should be more heat-related regulations and guidelines for working during very hot weather. More than two-thirds (68.8 %) of the respondents were willing to adjust their current work habits to adapt to the likely increasing extreme heat, especially those with previous heat illness experience. Conclusions The findings suggest a need to strengthen workers’ heat risk awareness and refine current heat prevention strategies in a warming climate. Further heat educational programmes and training should focus on those undertaking physically demanding work outdoors, in particular young workers and those over 55 years with low education levels.

Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease that poses a serious public health threat in China. HFRS is caused by hantaviruses, mainly Seoul virus in urban areas and Hantaan virus in agricultural areas. Although preventive measures including vaccination programs and rodent control measures have resulted in a decline in cases in recent years, there has been an increase in incidence in some areas and new endemic areas have emerged. This review summarises the recent literature relating to the effects of climatic factors on the incidence of HFRS in China and discusses future research directions. Temperature, precipitation and humidity affect crop yields, rodent breeding patterns and disease transmission, and these can be influenced by a changing climate. Detailed surveillance of infections caused by Hantaan and Seoul viruses and further research on the viral agents will aid in interpretation of spatiotemporal patterns and a better understanding of the environmental and ecological drivers of HFRS amid China's rapidly urbanising landscape and changing climate.

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the most common cause of viral encephalitis and an important public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China where 50% of global cases are notified. To explore the association between environmental factors and human JE cases and identify the high risk areas for JE transmission in China, we used annual notified data on JE cases at the center of administrative township and environmental variables with a pixel resolution of 1 km × 1 km from 2005 to 2011 to construct models using ecological niche modeling (ENM) approaches based on maximum entropy. These models were then validated by overlaying reported human JE case localities from 2006 to 2012 onto each prediction map. ENMs had good discriminatory ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.82–0.91, and low extrinsic omission rate of 5.44–7.42%. Resulting maps showed JE being presented extensively throughout southwestern and central China, with local spatial variations in probability influenced by minimum temperatures, human population density, mean temperatures, and elevation, with contribution of 17.94%–38.37%, 15.47%–21.82%, 3.86%–21.22%, and 12.05%–16.02%, respectively. Approximately 60% of JE cases occurred in predicted high risk areas, which covered less than 6% of areas in mainland China. Our findings will help inform optimal geographical allocation of the limited resources available for JE prevention and control in China, find hidden high-risk areas, and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission. Keywords: Japanese encephalitis, Ecological niche model, MaxEnt, China

BACKGROUND:There was a dengue epidemic in several regions of China in 2013. No study has explored the dynamics of dengue transmission between different geographical locations with dengue outbreaks in China. The purpose of the study is to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and to explore the dynamic transmission of dengue in China, 2013. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Records of dengue cases of 2013 were obtained from the China Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Full E-gene sequences of dengue virus detected from the outbreak regions of China were download from GenBank. Geographical Information System and heatmaps were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics. Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian phylogeographic analyses were conducted to explore the dengue dynamic transmission. Yunnan Province and Guangdong Province had the highest imported cases in the 2013 epidemic. In the locations with local dengue transmission, most of imported cases occurred from June to November 2013 while local dengue cases developed from July to December, 2013. There were significant variations for the incidences of dengue, in terms of age distributions, among different geographic locations. However, gender differences were identified in Guangzhou, Foshan and Xishuangbanna. DENV 1-3 were detected in all locations with the disease outbreaks. Some genotypes were detected in more than one locations and more than one genotypes have been detected in several locations. The dengue viruses introduced to outbreak areas were predominantly from Southeast Asia. In Guangdong Province, the phylogeographical results indicated that dengue viruses of DENV 1 were transmitted to neighboring cities Foshan and Zhongshan from Guangzhou city, and then transmitted to Jiangmen city. The virus in DENV 3 was introduced to Guangzhou city, Guangdong Province from Xishuangbanna prefecture, Yunnan Province. CONCLUSIONS:Repeated dengue virus introductions from Southeast Asia and subsequent domestic dengue transmission within different regions may have contributed to the dengue epidemics in China, 2013.

INTRODUCTION:Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical regions, and the incidence has increased 30-fold in the past 50 years. The situation of dengue in China has become more and more severe, with an unprecedented dengue outbreak hitting south China in 2014. Building a dengue early warning system is therefore urgent and necessary for timely and effective response. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:In the study we developed a time series Poisson multivariate regression model using imported dengue cases, local minimum temperature and accumulative precipitation to predict the dengue occurrence in four districts of Guangzhou, China. The time series data were decomposed into seasonal, trend and remainder components using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL). The time lag of climatic factors included in the model was chosen based on Spearman correlation analysis. Autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend were controlled in the model. A best model was selected and validated using Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) score and residual test. The data from March 2006 to December 2012 were used to develop the model while the data from January 2013 to September 2014 were employed to validate the model. Time series Poisson model showed that imported cases in the previous month, minimum temperature in the previous month and accumulative precipitation with three month lags could project the dengue outbreaks occurred in 2013 and 2014 after controlling the autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend. CONCLUSIONS:Together with the sole transmission vector Aedes albopictus, imported cases, monthly minimum temperature and monthly accumulative precipitation may be used to develop a low-cost effective early warning system.

BACKGROUND:Increased risks for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by Hantaan virus have been observed since 2005, in Xi'an, China. Despite increased vigilance and preparedness, HFRS outbreaks in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were larger than ever, with a total of 3,938 confirmed HFRS cases and 88 deaths in 2010 and 2011. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Data on HFRS cases and weather were collected monthly from 2005 to 2012, along with active rodent monitoring. Wavelet analyses were performed to assess the temporal relationship between HFRS incidence, rodent density and climatic factors over the study period. Results showed that HFRS cases correlated to rodent density, rainfall, and temperature with 2, 3 and 4-month lags, respectively. Using a Bayesian time-series Poisson adjusted model, we fitted the HFRS outbreaks among humans for risk assessment in Xi'an. The best models included seasonality, autocorrelation, rodent density 2 months previously, and rainfall 2 to 3 months previously. Our models well reflected the epidemic characteristics by one step ahead prediction, out-of-sample. CONCLUSIONS:In addition to a strong seasonal pattern, HFRS incidence was correlated with rodent density and rainfall, indicating that they potentially drive the HFRS outbreaks. Future work should aim to determine the mechanism underlying the seasonal pattern and autocorrelation. However, this model can be useful in risk management to provide early warning of potential outbreaks of this disease.

Increased incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been recognized as a critical challenge to communicable disease control and public health response. This study aimed to quantify the association between climate variation and notified cases of HFMD in selected cities of Shanxi Province, and to provide evidence for disease control and prevention. Meteorological variables and HFMD cases data in 4 major cities (Datong, Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng) of Shanxi province, China, were obtained from the China Meteorology Administration and China CDC respectively over the period 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013. Correlations analyses and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were used to identify and quantify the relationship between the meteorological variables and HFMD. HFMD incidence varied seasonally with the majority of cases in the 4 cities occurring from May to July. Temperatures could play important roles in the incidence of HFMD in these regions. The SARIMA models indicate that a 1° C rise in average, maximum and minimum temperatures may lead to a similar relative increase in the number of cases in the 4 cities. The lag times for the effects of temperatures were identified in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng. The numbers of cases were positively associated with average and minimum temperatures at a lag of 1 week in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng, and with maximum temperature at a lag of 2 weeks in Yuncheng. Positive association between the temperature and HFMD has been identified from the 4 cities in Shanxi Province, although the role of weather variables on the transmission of HFMD varied in the 4 cities. Relevant prevention measures and public health action are required to reduce future risks of climate change with consideration of local climatic conditions.