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2. THE SOUTH AMERICAN LOW-LEVEL JET EXPERIMENT

Author

Vera, C., Baez, J., Douglas, M., Emmanuel, C. B., Marengo, J., Meitin, J., Nicolini, M., Nogues-Paegle, J., Paegle, J., Penalba, O., Salio, P., Saulo, C., Dias, M. A. Silva, Dias, P. Silva, and Zipser, E.

Published
2006

5. Yield estimation and sowing date optimization based on seasonal climate information in the three CLARIS sites

Author

d'Orgeval, T., Boulanger, Jean-Philippe, Capalbo, M. J., Guevara, E., Penalba, O., and Meira, S.

Subjects
Crop yields -- Management, Global temperature changes -- Analysis, Sowing -- Environmental aspects, Company business management, Earth sciences
Abstract

Byline: T. d'Orgeval (1,2), Jean-Philippe Boulanger (3), M. J. Capalbo (4), E. Guevara (4), O. Penalba (1), S. Meira (4) Abstract: The present article is a contribution to the CLARIS WorkPackage 'Climate and Agriculture', and aims at testing whether it is possible to predict yields and optimal sowing dates using seasonal climate information at three sites (Pergamino, Marcos Juarez and Anguil) which are representative of different climate and soil conditions in Argentina. Considering that we focus on the use of climate information only, and that official long time yield series are not always reliable and often influenced by both climate and technology changes, we decided to build a dataset with yields simulated by the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop model, already calibrated in the selected three sites and for the two crops of interest (maize and soybean). We simulated yields for three different sowing dates for each crop in each of the three sites. Also considering that seasonal forecasts have a higher skill when using the 3-month average precipitation and temperature forecasts, and that regional climate change scenarios present less uncertainty at similar temporal scales, we decided to focus our analysis on the use of quarterly precipitation and temperature averages, measured at the three sites during the crop cycle. This type of information is used as input (predictand) for non-linear statistical methods (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, MARS and classification trees) in order to predict yields and their dependency to the chosen sowing date. MARS models show that the most valuable information to predict yield amplitude is the 3-month average precipitation around flowering. Classification trees are used to estimate whether climate information can be used to infer an optimal sowing date in order to optimize yields. In order to simplify the problem, we set a default sowing date (the most representative for the crop and the site) and compare the yield amplitudes between such a default date and possible alternative dates sometimes used by farmers. Above normal average temperatures at the beginning and the end of the crop cycle lead to respectively later and earlier optimal sowing. Using this classification, yields can be potentially improved by changing sowing date for maize but it is more limited for soybean. More generally, the sites and crops which have more variable yields are also the ones for which the proposed methodology is the most efficient. However, a full evaluation of the accuracy of seasonal forecasts should be the next step before confirming the reliability of this methodology under real conditions. Author Affiliation: (1) Centro de Investigacion del Mar y la Atmosfera, Buenos Aires, Argentina (2) Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris, France (3) Laboratoire d'Oceanographie et du Climat, Experimentation et Analyse Numerique, Paris, France (4) Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria, Pergamino, Argentina Article History: Registration Date: 17/09/2009 Received Date: 23/06/2008 Accepted Date: 03/08/2009 Online Date: 08/10/2009

Published
2010

8. STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2011 Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 93, No. 7, July 2012

Author

Arndt, D. S., Blunden, J., Willett, K. M., Dolman, A. J., Hall, B. D., Thorne, P. W., Gregg, M. C., Newlin, M. L., Xue, Y., Hu, Z., Kumar, A., Banzon, V., Smith, T. M., Rayner, N. A., Jeffries, M. O., Richter-Menge, J., Overland, J., Bhatt, U., Key, J., Liu, Y., Walsh, J., Wang, M., Fogt, R. L., Scambos, T. A., Wovrosh, A. J., Barreira, S., Sanchez-Lugo, A., Renwick, J. A., Thiaw, W. M., Weaver, S. J., Whitewood, R., Phillips, D., Achberger, C., Ackerman, S. A., Ahmed, F. H., Albanil-Encarnacion, A., Alfaro, E. J., Alves, L. M., Allan, R., Amador, J. A., Ambenje, P., Antoine, M. D., Antonov, J., Arevalo, J., Ashik, I., Atheru, Z., Baccini, A., Baez, J., Baringer, M. O., Barriopedro, D. E., Bates, J. J., Becker, A., Behrenfeld, M. J., Bell, G. D., Benedetti, A., Bernhard, G., Berrisford, P., Berry, D. I., Beszczynska-Moeller, A., Bhatt, U. S., Bidegain, M., Bieniek, P., Birkett, C., Bissolli, P., Blake, E. S., Boudet-Rouco, D., Box, J. E., Boyer, T., Braathen, G. O., Brackenridge, G. R., Brohan, P., Bromwich, D. H., Brown, L., Brown, R., Bruhwiler, L., Bulygina, O. N., Burrows, J., Calderon, B., Camargo, S. J., Cappellen, J., Carmack, E., Carrasco, G., Chambers, D. P., Christiansen, H. H., Christy, J., Chung, D., Ciais, P., Coehlo, C. A. S., Colwell, S., Comiso, J., Cretaux, J. F., Crouch, J., Cunningham, S. A., Jeu, R. A. M., Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Diamond, H. J., Dlugokencky, E. J., Dohan, K., Dorigo, W. A., Drozdov, D. S., Duguay, C., Dutton, E., Dutton, G. S., Elkins, J. W., Epstein, H. E., Famiglietti, J. S., Fanton D Andon, O. H., Feely, R. A., Fekete, B. M., Fenimore, C., Fernandez-Prieto, D., Fields, E., Fioletov, V., Folland, C., Foster, M. J., Frajka-Williams, E., Franz, B. A., Frey, K., Frith, S. H., Frolov, I., Frost, G. V., Ganter, C., Garzoli, S., Gitau, W., Gleason, K. L., Gobron, N., Goldenberg, S. B., Goni, G., Gonzalez-Garcia, I., Gonzalez-Rodriguez, N., Good, S. A., Goryl, P., Gottschalck, J., Gouveia, C. M., Griffiths, G. M., Grigoryan, V., Grooss, J. U., Guard, C., Guglielmin, M., Halpert, M. S., Heidinger, A. K., Heikkila, A., Heim, R. R., Hennon, P. A., Hidalgo, H. G., Hilburn, K., Ho, S. P., Hobbs, W. R., Holgate, S., Hook, S. J., Hovsepyan, A., Hu, Z. Z., Hugony, S., Hurst, D. F., Ingvaldsen, R., Itoh, M., Jaimes, E., Jeffries, M., Johns, W. E., Johnsen, B., Johnson, B., Johnson, G. C., Jones, L. T., Jumaux, G., Kabidi, K., Kaiser, J. W., Kang, K. K., Kanzow, T. O., Kao, H. Y., Keller, L. M., Kendon, M., Kennedy, J. J., Kervankiran, S., Khatiwala, S., Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, M., Kikuchi, T., Kimberlain, T. B., King, D., Knaff, J. A., Korshunova, N. N., Koskela, T., Kratz, D. P., Krishfield, R., Kruger, A., Kruk, M. C., Lagerloef, G., Lakkala, K., Lammers, R. B., Lander, M. A., Landsea, C. W., Lankhorst, M., Lapinel-Pedroso, B., Lazzara, M. A., Leduc, S., Lefale, P., Leon, G., Leon-Lee, A., Leuliette, E., Levitus, S., L Heureux, M., Lin, II, Liu, H. X., Liu, Y. J., Lobato-Sanchez, R., Locarnini, R., Loeb, N. G., Loeng, H., Long, C. S., Lorrey, A. M., Lumpkin, R., Myhre, C. L., Jing-Jia Luo, Lyman, J. M., Maccallum, S., Macdonald, A. M., Maddux, B. C., Manney, G., Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, J. A., Maritorena, S., Marotzke, J., Marra, J. J., Martinez-Sanchez, O., Maslanik, J., Massom, R. A., Mathis, J. T., Mcbride, C., Mcclain, C. R., Mcgrath, D., Mcgree, S., Mclaughlin, F., Mcvicar, T. R., Mears, C., Meier, W., Meinen, C. S., Menendez, M., Merchant, C., Merrifield, M. A., Miller, L., Mitchum, G. T., Montzka, S. A., Moore, S., Mora, N. P., Morcrette, J. J., Mote, T., Muhle, J., Mullan, A. B., Muller, R., Myhre, C., Nash, E. R., Nerem, R. S., Newman, P. A., Ngari, A., Nishino, S., Njau, L. N., Noetzli, J., Oberman, N. G., Obregon, A., Ogallo, L., Oludhe, C., Oyunjargal, L., Parinussa, R. M., Park, G. H., Parker, D. E., Pasch, R. J., Pascual-Ramirez, R., Pelto, M. S., Penalba, O., Perez-Suarez, R., Perovich, D., Pezza, A. B., Pickart, R., Pinty, B., Pinzon, J., Pitts, M. C., Pour, H. K., Prior, J., Privette, J. L., Proshutinsky, A., Quegan, S., Quintana, J., Rabe, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Rajeevan, M., Rayner, D., Raynolds, M. K., Razuvaev, V. N., Reagan, J., Reid, P., Revadekar, J., Rex, M., Rivera, I. L., Robinson, D. A., Rodell, M., Roderick, M. L., Romanovsky, V. E., Ronchail, J., Rosenlof, K. H., Rudels, B., Sabine, C. L., Santee, M. L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, A., Schauer, U., Schemm, J., Schmid, C., Schreck, C., Semiletov, I., Send, U., Sensoy, S., Shakhova, N., Sharp, M., Shiklomanov, N. I., Shimada, K., Shin, J., Siegel, D. A., Simmons, A., Skansi, M., Sokolov, V., Spence, J., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, P. W., Stammerjohn, S., Steele, M., Steffen, K., Steinbrecht, W., Stephenson, T., Stolarski, R. S., Sweet, W., Takahashi, T., Taylor, M. A., Tedesco, M., Thepaut, J. N., Thompson, P., Timmermans, M. L., Tobin, S., Toole, J., Trachte, K., Trewin, B. C., Trigo, R. M., Trotman, A., Tucker, C. J., Ulupinar, Y., Wal, R. S. W., Werf, G. R., Vautard, R., Votaw, G., Wagner, W. W., Wahr, J., Walker, D. A., Wang, C. Z., Wang, J. H., Wang, L., Wang, M. H., Wang, S. H., Wanninkhof, R., Weaver, S., Weber, M., Weingartner, T., Weller, R. A., Wentz, F., Wilber, A. C., Williams, W., Willis, J. K., Wilson, R. C., Wolken, G., Wong, T. M., Woodgate, R., Yamada, R., Yamamoto-Kawai, M., Yoder, J. A., Yu, L. S., Yueh, S., Zhang, L. Y., Zhang, P. Q., Zhao, L., Zhou, X. J., Zimmermann, S., Zubair, L., Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University [New York], Space Technology Center, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Climate Research Division [Toronto], Environment and Climate Change Canada, Earth and Space Research Institute [Seattle] (ESR), Department of Hydrology and Geo-Environmental Sciences [Amsterdam], Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] (ESS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), University of California Center for Hydrologic Modeling [Irvine] (UCCHM), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Physics [Boulder], University of Colorado [Boulder], Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare [Pisa] (INFN), Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), University at Albany [SUNY], State University of New York (SUNY), Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), University of Wisconsin-Madison-NASA-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Peking University [Beijing], National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), The University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB), Institut für Umweltphysik [Bremen] (IUP), Universität Bremen, Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi (UoN), Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), IGAD, Institute for Environment and Sustainability of the JRC, Partenaires INRAE, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Agricultural Information Institute (AII), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Universitá degli Studi dell’Insubria = University of Insubria [Varese] (Uninsubria), Heilongjiang Institute of Science and Technology, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), ESRL Global Monitoring Laboratory [Boulder] (GML), Materials and structures Laboratory, Tokyo Institute of Technology [Tokyo] (TITECH), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables], Norwegian Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Direction Interrégionale de Météo-France pour l'océan Indien (DIROI), Météo-France, Department of Earth Sciences [Oxford], University of Oxford, NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] (LaRC), University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM), Department of Earth and Space Sciences [Seattle], University of Washington [Seattle], Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften (IFM-GEOMAR), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), Agroécologie [Dijon], Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Bourgogne (UB)-AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement, Huazhong Agricultural University [Wuhan] (HZAU), NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), Department of Oceanography, Florida State University [Tallahassee] (FSU), Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA), Department of Physics [Socorro], New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology [New Mexico Tech] (NMT), Ocean and Earth Science [Southampton], University of Southampton-National Oceanography Centre (NOC), Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE-CRC), Massachusetts General Hospital [Boston], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Australian Research Council (ARC), Remote Sensing Systems [Santa Rosa] (RSS), Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme (DIAL), Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), University of California (UC), NMR Laboratory, Université de Mons, Université de Mons (UMons), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Glaciology, Geomorphodynamics and Geochronology, Department of Geography [Zürich], Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich (UZH)-Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich (UZH), Chemistry Department [Massachusetts Institute of Technology], Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Nichols College Dudley, ERDC Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL), USACE Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), European Commission, Space Science and Engineering Center [Madison] (SSEC), University of Wisconsin-Madison, Lausanne University Hospital, Centro de Ciencias do Sistema Terrestre, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), University of Sheffield, Hochschule Mannheim - University of Applied Sciences, Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche (LOV), Observatoire océanologique de Villefranche-sur-mer (OOVM), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Ministry of Earth Sciences [India], Woods Hole Research Center, Department of Earth and Environment [Boston], Boston University [Boston] (BU), Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Génétique et Ecologie des Virus, Génétique des Virus et Pathogénèse des Maladies Virales, Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University (OSU), Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Bangor, Environm Ctr Wales, Biospherical Instruments Inc., Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Instituto Uruguayo de Meteorología, Javier Barrios Amorín 1488, CP 11200, Montevideo, Uruguay, Science Systems and Applications, Inc. [Hampton] (SSAI), National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley), Centre de physique moléculaire optique et hertzienne (CPMOH), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CYRIC, Tohoku University [Sendai], The University of Tennessee [Knoxville], Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC, The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), Institute of Arctic Alpine Research [University of Colorado Boulder] (INSTAAR), Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Meteorologisches Observatorium Hohenpeißenberg (MOHp), Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] (DWD), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), University of California [Irvine] (UCI), University of California-University of California, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Universitá degli Studi dell’Insubria, University of Costa Rica, Météo France [Sainte-Clotilde], Météo France, University of Oxford [Oxford], Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), Huazhong Agricultural University, University of California, NMR and Molecular Imaging Laboratory [Mons], University of Mons [Belgium] (UMONS), Lausanne University Hospital [Switzerland], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de la Mer de Villefranche (IMEV), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Berkeley University of California (UC BERKELEY), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1, and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR)

Subjects
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography
Abstract

International audience; Large-scale climate patterns influenced temperature and weather patterns around the globe in 2011. In particular, a moderate-to-strong La Nina at the beginning of the year dissipated during boreal spring but reemerged during fall. The phenomenon contributed to historical droughts in East Africa, the southern United States, and northern Mexico, as well the wettest two-year period (2010-11) on record for Australia, particularly remarkable as this follows a decade-long dry period. Precipitation patterns in South America were also influenced by La Nina. Heavy rain in Rio de Janeiro in January triggered the country's worst floods and landslides in Brazil's history. The 2011 combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was the coolest since 2008, but was also among the 15 warmest years on record and above the 1981-2010 average. The global sea surface temperature cooled by 0.1 degrees C from 2010 to 2011, associated with cooling influences of La Nina. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for 2011 were higher than for all prior years, demonstrating the Earth's dominant role of the oceans in the Earth's energy budget. In the upper atmosphere, tropical stratospheric temperatures were anomalously warm, while polar temperatures were anomalously cold. This led to large springtime stratospheric ozone reductions in polar latitudes in both hemispheres. Ozone concentrations in the Arctic stratosphere during March were the lowest for that period since satellite records began in 1979. An extensive, deep, and persistent ozone hole over the Antarctic in September indicates that the recovery to pre-1980 conditions is proceeding very slowly. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 2.10 ppm in 2011, and exceeded 390 ppm for the first time since instrumental records began. Other greenhouse gases also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 30% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Most ozone depleting substances continued to fall. The global net ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2010 transition period from El Nino to La Nina, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, was estimated to be 1.30 Pg C yr(-1), almost 12% below the 29-year long-term average. Relative to the long-term trend, global sea level dropped noticeably in mid-2010 and reached a local minimum in 2011. The drop has been linked to the La Nina conditions that prevailed throughout much of 2010-11. Global sea level increased sharply during the second half of 2011. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2011 was well-below average, with a total of 74 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010, the North Atlantic was the only basin that experienced above-normal activity. For the first year since the widespread introduction of the Dvorak intensity-estimation method in the 1980s, only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity level-all in the Northwest Pacific basin. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Below-normal summer snowfall, a decreasing trend in surface albedo, and above-average surface and upper air temperatures resulted in a continued pattern of extreme surface melting, and net snow and ice loss on the Greenland ice sheet. Warmer-than-normal temperatures over the Eurasian Arctic in spring resulted in a new record-low June snow cover extent and spring snow cover duration in this region. In the Canadian Arctic, the mass loss from glaciers and ice caps was the greatest since GRACE measurements began in 2002, continuing a negative trend that began in 1987. New record high temperatures occurred at 20 m below the land surface at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska, where measurements began in the late 1970s. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2011 was the second-lowest on record, while the extent of old ice (four and five years) reached a new record minimum that was just 19% of normal. On the opposite pole, austral winter and spring temperatures were more than 3 degrees C above normal over much of the Antarctic continent. However, winter temperatures were below normal in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, which continued the downward trend there during the last 15 years. In summer, an all-time record high temperature of -12.3 degrees C was set at the South Pole station on 25 December, exceeding the previous record by more than a full degree. Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies increased steadily through much of the year, from briefly setting a record low in April, to well above average in December. The latter trend reflects the dispersive effects of low pressure on sea ice and the generally cool conditions around the Antarctic perimeter.

Published
2012
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9. A Europe-South America network for climate change assessment and impact studies

Author

Boulanger, Jean-Philippe, Brasseur, G., Carril, A. F., de Castro, M., Dégallier, Nicolas, Ereno, C., Le Treut, H., Marengo, J. A., Menendez, C. G., Nunez, M. N., Penalba, O. C., Rolla, A. L., Rusticucci, M., and Terra, R.

Abstract

The goal of the CLARIS project was to build an integrated European-South American network dedicated to promote common research strategies to observe and predict climate changes and their consequent socio-economic impacts taking into account the climate and societal peculiarities of South America. Reaching that goal placed the present network as a privileged advisor to contribute to the design of adaptation strategies in a region strongly affected by and dependent on climate variability (e. g. agriculture, health, hydro-electricity). Building the CLARIS network required fulfilling the following three objectives: (1) The first objective of CLARIS was to set up and favour the technical transfer and expertise in earth system and regional climate modelling between Europe and South America together with the providing of a list of climate data (observed and simulated) required for model validations; (2) The second objective of CLARIS was to facilitate the exchange of observed and simulated climate data between the climate research groups and to create a South American high-quality climate database for studies in extreme events and long-term climate trends; (3) Finally, the third objective of CLARIS was to strengthen the communication between climate researchers and stakeholders, and to demonstrate the feasibility of using climate information in the decision-making process.

Published
2010

20. Construction of a daily precipitation grid for southeastern South America for the period 1961-2000.

Author

Jones, P. D., Lister, D. H., Harpham, C., Rusticucci, M., and Penalba, O.

Subjects
PRODUCT quality, STATISTICAL process control, FACTORY management, PLANT capacity, PLANT shutdowns
Abstract

ABSTRACT Daily station precipitation totals are used to develop a gridded dataset for the region (14°-40°S, 45°-70°W) on a 0.5° × 0.5° latitude/longitude grid, primarily for comparison with regional climate model ( RCM) simulations. The gridded dataset covers the period 1961-2000. Much of the paper discusses the quality control of the basic station precipitation series. Although the primary aim of the development has been RCM validation, we have assessed trends in seasonal precipitation totals as well as trends in two measures of precipitation extremes (R95p, the daily precipitation amount exceeded only 5% of the time and Rx5day, the maximum 5-d precipitation total during each season). Relatively few regions across the large domain have statistically significant trends, but those that do tend to be located in the eastern two thirds of the grid, particularly over southeastern Brazil and Uruguay. Significant trends are also more evident in the DJF and MAM seasons. There is good spatial agreement between the trends in seasonal totals and trends in the extreme indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2013
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27. 3) SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

Author

Bidegain, M., Stella, J. L., and Penalba, O. C.

Subjects
ATMOSPHERIC temperature, METEOROLOGICAL precipitation, SOUTH American climate, RAINFALL, CLIMATOLOGY
Abstract

The article summarizes the temperature and precipitation conditions across Southern South America (SSA) in 2013. Topics discussed include the above-normal temperatures observed over most of the region, the below-normal rainfall recorded across most of SSA, and the extreme daily rainfall that severely affected La Plata, Brazil and Argentina.

Published
2014

29. SIDEBAR 7.2: EXTREME HEAT WAVE OVER CENTRAL SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA DURING DECEMBER 2013.

Author

BIDEGAIN, M., STELLA, J. L., and PENALBA, O. C.

Subjects
HEAT waves (Meteorology), SOUTH American climate, HIGH temperature (Weather), HOT weather conditions, ATMOSPHERIC temperature
Abstract

The article assesses the extreme heat wave in Central Argentina and Uruguay in December 2013. Topics discussed include the marked increase in temperatures that began on December 11, the severe effect of the heat wave in the central part of South America, and the persistence of extreme maximum and minimum temperatures.

Published
2014

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