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The science of forecasting requires viewing possible future scenarios as results of the conversion of a trend or a counter-trend in areas of human activity. A minimum of three trend conversions presents themselves as future turning points in such activities. These include a move from the search for information to addiction, overload and eventual aversion, from technological knowhow to technological illiteracy and from the creation of a global economy to the perpetuation of increasing barriers to trade.

Digital divide is a consequence of differences among countries, social groups and organizations with regard to their access to computer and communication systems, hardware, software and applications. It creates barriers and impediments to communication. The purpose of this paper is to present a new way of measuring digital divide in interactive communication. Scope and extent of digital divide is analyzed at different levels of aggregation. Proportion between levels of access to and practical use of digital technology in different countries, social groups and organizations is an indicator of scale of the digital divide. The digital divide quotient (DDQ) has been proposed and defined as a quotient of numbers (measures) reflecting levels of access to and practical use of digital technology in respective two countries, social groups or organizations. To better illustrate this concept some specific elements of digital technology are taken into consideration such as: Internet, broadband transmission, smartphones, social media/networks, messengers etc. The digital inequality factor (DIF) is also proposed to reflect the extent of DDQ differences under certain conditions. Examples of digital divide quotient and digital inequality factor are presented. They are used for illustration of international and local/social digital divides. Suggestions concerning the directions of further research on methods of measurement are combined with conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distinction between human needs and desires is viewed as important subject for consideration in foresight, social planning and all other studies related to social change. Human desires are defined as expression of subjective wishes that are not always founded on rational principles or beneficial for individuals interested in their satisfaction. Those desires are related to but not identical with objective human needs. In general, the level of human sense of happiness depends on satisfaction of desires. However satisfaction of some human desires doesn't necessarily bring positive effects for individual well-being and may not lead to solving individual or social problems. To the contrary, it may lead to pathologies. Unfortunately, lack of satisfaction of such human desires that extend beyond objective needs may lead to frustration and conflicts at a social scale. On the other hand, satisfaction of objective needs guarantees possibility of safe existence. The authors suggest using analysis of both human needs and desires as a conceptual framework for the foresight and social planning. A social planning model following this approach is also presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A multi-dimensional model of innovation adoption process in interactive communication networks is proposed. In addition to the economic dimension, analyzed in earlier publications (Pelc, 2014, and 2015), the author presents social, technological and cultural dimensions of the innovation adoption process. Three hypotheses are formulated concerning the influence of non-economic factors on the adoption process. Those hypotheses are used as a framework for the literature review and comparative analysis of data on the innovation adoption in interactive communication networks in different countries. For illustrative purposes, the Facebook adoption is used as representative of such networks with specific statistical data on the adoption process in selected countries of Europe and in the U. S., the social dimension is represented by percentage of the millennials' population as the most active in interactive networking. The technological dimension is represented by two measures: (1) Access to broadband transmission and (2) Number of smartphone users. A set of measures representing the cultural dimension is based on the Hofstede's model of national culture. The following quantitative measures of culture have been selected for comparative analysis: power distance, individualism index, uncertainty avoidance index and indulgence index. Correlation between the Facebook penetration in different countries and selected measures is discussed. The cultural dimension and the individualism index appear to have a stronger influence on innovation adoption than any other non-economic factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A model of innovation adoption process in interactive communication systems is presented. It combines classical approach to innovation diffusion (Rogers, 1962) with new elements of adoption analysis specific for social media and interactive communication technologies. Three models of adoption process are compared. Innovation adoption is viewed as a learning process consisting of multiple phases. Importance of the following two dimensions is emphasized: penetration rate and interactivity level. They are applied as indicators of adoption of novelties in the interactive networking environment. Interactive networks are defined as a category broader than social networks by including internet-based mobile messaging systems. Empirical data used for illustration of the adoption processes are derived from statistics of eight Central European countries, personal interviews, and selected comparative data at a global scale. Review of operational characteristics of networking mechanisms is focused on empirical material that illustrates two cases of interactive networking i.e. social networking, represented by Facebook, and mobile interactive messaging systems, represented by WhatsApp. Selection of statistical data and direct observations of user behavior allowed formulation of three hypotheses on causes of recent changes in interactive communication networks. Economic wealth of society i.e. level of national income (measured by GDP per capita) is not the only factor influencing adoption of innovation in interactive networks. In some cases it may even be not the most important one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to analysis of innovation adoption that is applicable to innovation in social networking. This approach combines measures of innovation adoption with dimensions of technology complexity. Innovation adoption is viewed in the context of innovation diffusion, usually measured by the rate of adoption expressed by the number of adopters or by penetration rate within given population. Those measures are based on statistics of acquisition. However each individual adopter needs to complete the adoption process to fully benefit from innovation. It implies that adoption of innovation should not be viewed just as an event but rather as a learning process. Six basic phases of adoption of innovation in social networking are proposed. On the basis of a literature review and available empirical data, a new dimension called "interactivity level" is proposed and defined. It is specific to innovations in social networking. The interactivity level reflects amount of active knowledge and effective use of social media and technologies. Surveys of social media users and comparative study of average interactivity levels in different countries demonstrate application of that dimension. Complexity of innovation being the subject of adoption may be a factor influencing the adoption. It is suggested that three dimensions of technology complexity introduced by M. Jacobs (2013) could be applied in the analysis of the adoption process of innovation in social networking. Two hypotheses are proposed for further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents preface to the April 1, 2005 issue of the "International Journal of Technology Management."