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The endemic green-lipped mussel (GLM) Perna canaliculus is a key cultural and economic species for New Zealand. Unlike other cultured shellfish species, GLMs have experienced relatively few disease issues. The apparent absence of diseases in both wild and farmed GLM populations does not preclude risks from environmental changes or from the introduction of overseas mussel pathogens and parasites. Potential for disease exchange between the GLM and other mytilid species present in New Zealand has yet to be elucidated. After reviewing and discussing relevant scientific literature, we present an initial assessment of GLM vulnerability to disease threats and the potential risk pathways for mussel pathogens and parasites into New Zealand and highlight a number of challenges. These include knowledge gaps relevant to GLM susceptibility to exotic pathogens and parasites, risk pathways into New Zealand and biosecurity risk associated with domestic pathways. Considerations and findings could potentially apply to other farmed aquatic species with limited distribution range and/or low disease exposure.

The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) seeks to improve animal health by promoting safe trade in animals and their products, setting standards for diagnostic methods, detection of emerging diseases and confirmation of listed diseases in clinically affected animals and surveillance in healthy populations. WOAH launched the Aquatic Animal Health Strategy (AAHS) in 2021 in recognition of the growing importance of aquatic animal products in global food security. Disease is currently a major limiting factor in the sustainable growth and development of the aquaculture industry, impacting the industry's ability to increase yields to meet future food demands. A key aim of the AAHS is to ensure that scientifically sound standards are set to manage risks and facilitate safe trade, improve aquatic animal health and welfare, build capacity to strengthen aquatic animal health services provided by WOAH and ensure that responses to aquatic animal health issues are coordinated and timely, at both regional and global level. This article evaluates some of the latest scientific and policy advances, as well as obstacles for the implementation of the AAHS.

The Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs) programme's key objective â€" to provide a systematic approach to determine the burden of animal disease â€" is as relevant to aquatic as to terrestrial animal production systems. However, to date GBADs methods have mainly been applied to terrestrial animal production systems. The challenges in applying GBADs methods, notably the Animal Health Loss Envelope (AHLE), vary considerably by production system. The authors demonstrate how the AHLE can be calculated for rainbow trout production in England and Wales and acknowledge that its application to other systems (e.g. hatchery production, polyculture and no-feed mollusc production) is more complex. For example, in small scale tropical fish production the impact of suboptimal nutrition on production would need to be addressed. Recirculating aquaculture systems have inherent high levels of biosecurity and disease control, and thus low levels of disease. Removing the capital and running costs associated with biosecurity fundamentally changes the system and invalidates the AHLE calculation. Lack of data from many systems, notably small-scale tropical finfish farming, means that expert opinion will be needed to support the application of GBADs methods. While calculation of the AHLE is the focus of this article, it should be noted that attribution to causes and value chain modelling are needed to generate data on the wider societal impact of aquatic animal diseases (and possible interventions), which governments require to support decision-making about resource allocation.

A farm level bio-economic model, for aquatic animal production, of the relationships between inputs (e.g. purchased animals), outputs (e.g. harvested animals) and gross margin (GM) was developed to assess ex-ante the economics of disease and animal health interventions. Feed costs were calculated from estimates of food conversion ratio (FCR), animals harvested and mortality. The model was applied to a typical grow-out rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) farm on Lake Titicaca, Peru and a typical shrimp (Paenus vannamei) farm in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The model was used in two analyses. Firstly, an approach to assess the burden of disease developed by the Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs) project was adopted. Output under conditions of 'ideal health' was estimated by reducing mortality to zero and removing health costs. GM in both systems increased by approximately 25% when production was kept constant (and stocking rates reduced) and more than doubled if production was allowed to rise (and initial stocking increased). The increase in GM under conditions of ideal compared with current production provided an estimate of the maximum possible benefit from improved health management. Secondly, break-even analysis was used to assess the economics of vaccination against infectious pancreatic necrosis (IPN) vaccine (rainbow trout - RBT) and probiotics (shrimp). If initial stocking was kept constant, and production allowed to rise, break-even points for the intervention (when GM was the same with and without the intervention) were achieved when mortality was reduced by 16% in RBT fry and juvenile and 28% in shrimp. If production was kept constant and benefit realised by reduced initial stocking, the break-even point was achieved for i) vaccination of RBT when mortality in fry and juveniles was reduced by 39%, and ii) probiotics in shrimp production when there was a 15% reduction in mortality (nursery and grow-out), 10% increase in shrimp weight at harvest and 10% improvement in FCR. The results demonstrate how relatively simple models, parameterised with basic farm production data, can assess the burden of disease and quantify ex-ante the potential benefit of interventions. In the absence of trial data, these analyses support decision-making by farmers. The models can be adapted for many aquaculture systems. Farm level results can be extrapolated to estimate disease burden, and benefits of interventions, at regional or national level and thus support informed decision-making and allocation of resources to health management., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None., (Crown Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Infectious disease causes significant mortality in wild and farmed systems, threatening biodiversity, conservation and animal welfare, as well as food security. To mitigate impacts and inform policy, tools such as mathematical models and computer simulations are valuable for predicting the potential spread and impact of disease. This paper describes the development of the Aquaculture Disease Network Model, AquaNet-Mod, and demonstrates its application to evaluating disease epidemics and the efficacy of control, using a Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (VHS) case study. AquaNet-Mod is a data-driven, stochastic, state-transition model. Disease spread can occur via four different mechanisms, i) live fish movement, ii) river based, iii) short distance mechanical and iv) distance independent mechanical. Sites transit between three disease states: susceptible, clinically infected and subclinically infected. Disease spread can be interrupted by the application of disease mitigation measures and controls such as contact tracing, culling, fallowing and surveillance. Results from a VHS case study highlight the potential for VHS to spread to 96% of sites over a 10 year time horizon if no disease controls are applied. Epidemiological impact is significantly reduced when live fish movement restrictions are placed on the most connected sites and further still, when disease controls, representative of current disease control policy in England and Wales, are applied. The importance of specific disease control measures, particularly contact tracing and disease detection rate, are also highlighted. The merit of this model for evaluation of disease spread and the efficacy of controls, in the context of policy, along with potential for further application and development of the model, for example to include economic parameters, is discussed., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors confirm that there are no known conflicts of interest associated with this publication and there has been no significant financial support for this work that could have influenced its outcome., (Crown Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Intricate links between aquatic animals and their environment expose them to chemical and pathogenic hazards, which can disrupt seafood supply. Here we outline a risk schema for assessing potential impacts of chemical and microbial hazards on discrete subsectors of aquaculture-and control measures that may protect supply. As national governments develop strategies to achieve volumetric expansion in seafood production from aquaculture to meet increasing demand, we propose an urgent need for simultaneous focus on controlling those hazards that limit its production, harvesting, processing, trade and safe consumption. Policies aligning national and international water quality control measures for minimizing interaction with, and impact of, hazards on seafood supply will be critical as consumers increasingly rely on the aquaculture sector to supply safe, nutritious and healthy diets., (© 2022. Crown.)

Disease poses a significant threat to aquaculture. While there are a number of factors contributing to pathogen transmission risk, movement of live fish is considered the most important. Understanding live fish movement patterns for different aquaculture sectors is therefore crucial to predicting disease occurrence and necessary for the development of effective, risk-based biosecurity, surveillance and containment policies. However, despite this, our understanding of live movement patterns of key aquaculture species, namely salmonids and cyprinids, within England and Wales remains limited. In this study, networks reflecting live fish movements associated with the cyprinid and salmonid sectors in England and Wales were constructed. The structure, composition and key attributes of each network were examined and compared to provide insight into the nature of trading patterns and connectedness, as well as highlight sites at a high risk of spreading disease. Connectivity at both site and catchment level was considered to facilitate understanding at different resolutions, providing further insight into disease outbreaks, with industry wide implications. The study highlighted that connectivity through live fish movements was extensive for both industries. The salmonid and cyprinid networks comprised 2533 and 3645 nodes, with a network density of 5.81 × 10 -4 and 4.2 × 10 -4 , respectively. The maximum network reach of 2392 in the salmonid network was higher, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of the overall network, compared to maximum network reach of 2085 in the cyprinid network. However, in contrast, the number of sites in the cyprinid network with a network reach greater than one was 513, compared to 171 in the salmonid network. Patterns of connectivity indicated potential for more frequent yet smaller scale disease outbreaks in the cyprinid industry and less frequent but larger scale outbreaks in the salmonid industry. Further, high connectivity between river catchments within both networks was shown, posing challenges for zoning at the catchment level for the purpose of disease management. In addition to providing insight into pathogen transmission and epidemic potential within the salmonid and cyprinid networks, the study highlights the utility of network analysis, and the value of accessible, accurate live fish movement data in this context. The application of outputs from this study, and network analysis methodology, to inform future disease surveillance and control policies, both within England and Wales and more broadly, is discussed., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Aquaculture is predicted to supply the majority of aquatic dietary protein by 2050. For aquaculture to deliver significantly enhanced volumes of food in a sustainable manner, appropriate account needs to be taken of its impacts on environmental integrity, farmed organism health and welfare, and human health. Here, we explore increased aquaculture production through the One Health lens and define a set of success metrics - underpinned by evidence, policy and legislation - that must be embedded into aquaculture sustainability. We provide a framework for defining, monitoring and averting potential negative impacts of enhanced production - and consider interactions with land-based food systems. These metrics will inform national and international science and policy strategies to support improved aquatic food system design., (© 2020. Springer Nature Limited.)

Global food security and nutrition depend heavily on aquaculture, the continued growth of which is crucial as the world heads towards a human population of at least 9 billion by 2050, while harvests from wild capture will, at best, stabilise at current levels. Thus, a fundamental question is: how can we sustainably increase aquatic food production? It is clear that aquatic animal diseases present a substantial threat and, consequently, aquatic animal health management has a critical role in food security. An ecosystem approach to aquaculture will mitigate impacts on ecosystem services and biodiversity, and provide the necessary resilience to future disease threats, including those exacerbated by climate change. Due to the nature of aquatic production systems, this approach must encompass fisheries and other sectors that share the same resources. Improved aquatic animal health management must be a key component of aquaculture's future. At the national level, public-private partnerships are vital in achieving objectives of common benefit. Improved disease reporting and response is critical in the control of listed and emerging diseases and can only be achieved through government, industry and stakeholder collaboration. Great potential exists to improve biosecurity from the farm to national level, but this will only be achieved through collaboration. Industry cannot develop effective biosecurity without a clear government strategy and support, specifically legislation which provides an effective framework for safe trade. Governments have a key role in creating a regulatory environment that supports effective biosecurity and is attractive to investment; such as one that supports the development and regulatory approval of therapeutics. The improved control of transboundary diseases requires the wider and more consistent implementation of OIE standards, particularly on disease notification. This can only be achieved through improved collaboration between trading partners and by supporting low- and middle-income countries to strengthen their aquatic animal health services. There is incredible potential for aquaculture to continue its rapid growth and increase its contribution to global food security. However, sustainable growth of aquaculture is threatened by both known diseases, which we cannot effectively control, and new diseases, which may become pandemic. Recent pandemics have shown that global production systems are epidemiologically connected and, consequently, aquatic animal diseases present a shared global threat that demands global solidarity. The world now depends on a sustainable future for aquaculture and improved aquatic animal health management is critical to its continued and growing contribution to global food security.

Since 1970, aquaculture has grown at a rate of between 5% and 10% per annum. It has achieved this by expanding into new areas, farming new (often non-native) species and intensifying production. These features of aquaculture, combined with large-scale movements of animals, have driven disease emergence, with negative consequences for both production and biodiversity. Efforts to improve the management of emerging diseases of aquatic animals must include actions to reduce the rate of disease emergence, enhance disease detection and reporting, and improve responses to prevent disease spread. The rate of disease emergence can be reduced by understanding the underpinning mechanisms and developing measures to mitigate them. The three principal mechanisms of disease emergence, namely, host switching, decreased host immunocompetence and increased pathogen virulence, have many drivers. The most important of these drivers are those that expose susceptible hosts to novel pathogens (e.g. the introduction of non-native hosts, translocation of pathogens, and increased interaction between wild and farmed populations), followed by host switching. Exposure to wild populations can be reduced through infrastructure and management measures to reduce escapes or exclude wild animals (e.g. barrier nets, filtration and closed-confinement technology). A high standard of health management ensures immunocompetence and resistance to putative new pathogens and strains, and thus reduces the rate of emergence. Appropriate site selection and husbandry can reduce the likelihood of pathogens developing increased virulence by preventing their continuous cycling in geographically or temporally linked populations. The under-reporting of emerging aquatic animal diseases constrains appropriate investigation and timely response. At the producer level, employing information and communications technology (e.g. smartphone applications and Cloud computing) to collect and manage data, coupled with a farmer-centric approach to surveillance, could improve reporting. In addition, reporting behaviours must be understood and disincentives mitigated. At the international level, improving the reporting of emerging diseases to the World Organisation for Animal Health allows Member Countries to implement appropriate measures to reduce transboundary spread. Reporting would be incentivised if the global response included the provision of support to low-income countries to, in the short term, control a reported emerging disease, and, in the longer term, develop aquatic animal health services. Early detection and reporting of emerging diseases are only of benefit if Competent Authorities' responses prevent disease spread. Effective responses to emerging diseases are challenging because basic information and tools are often lacking. Consequently, responses are likely to be sub-optimal unless contingency plans have been developed and tested, and decision-making arrangements have been well established.

The growth of aquaculture over the past 50 years has been accompanied by the emergence of aquatic animal diseases, many of which have spread to become pandemic in countries or continents. An analysis of 400 emerging disease events in aquatic animals that were logged by the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science between 2002 and 2017 revealed that more than half were caused by viruses. However, in molluscs, most events were parasitic. Categorising these events indicated that the key processes underpinning emergence were the movement of live animals and host switching. Profiles of key pathogens further illustrate the importance of wild aquatic animals as the source of new infections in farmed animals. It is also clear that the spread of new diseases through the largescale movement of aquatic animals for farming, for food and for the ornamental trade has allowed many to achieve pandemic status. Many viral pathogens of fish (e.g. infectious salmon anaemia, viral haemorrhagic septicaemia) and shrimp (e.g. white spot syndrome virus) affect a large proportion of the global production of key susceptible species. Wild aquatic animal populations have also been severely affected by pandemic diseases, best exemplified by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a fungal infection of amphibians, whose emergence and spread were driven by the movement of animals for the ornamental trade. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is now widespread in the tropics and subtropics and has caused local extinctions of susceptible amphibian hosts. Given the rising demand for seafood, aquacultural production will continue to grow and diseases will continue to emerge. Some will inevitably achieve pandemic status, having significant impacts on production and trade, unless there are considerable changes in global monitoring and the response to aquatic animal diseases.

The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively., (© 2016 Crown copyright.)

Historically, serological tests for finfish diseases have been underused when compared with their use in terrestrial animal health. For years the nonspecific immune response in fish was judged to make serology unreliable and inferior to the direct measurement of agent analytes. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications that reported on the development, validation, or application of serological tests for finfish diseases. A total of 168 articles met the screening criteria; most of them were focused on salmonid pathogens (e.g., Aeromonas spp. and viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus). Before the 1980s, most publications reported the use of agglutination tests, but our review indicates that enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) has more recently become the dominant serological test. The main application of serological tests has been in the assessment of vaccine efficacy, with few applications for surveillance or demonstration of freedom from disease, despite the advantages of serological tests over direct detection at the population level. Nonlethal sampling, low cost, and postinfection persistence of antibodies make serological assays the test of choice in surveillance, especially of valuable broodstock. However, their adoption has been constrained by poor characterization and validation. The number of publications in our review reporting diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of serological tests in finfish was small (n = 7). Foreseeing a wider use of serological tests in the future for diagnostic end purposes, we offer recommendations for mitigating deficiencies in the development and evaluation of serological tests, including optimization, control of nonspecific reactions, informed cutoff points, diagnostic accuracy, and serological baseline studies. Achieving these goals will facilitate greater international recognition of serological testing in programs supporting aquatic animal health. Received March 21, 2016; accepted September 24, 2016.

The transmission of puffy skin disease (PSD) to rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss Walbaum was tested in the laboratory by conducting co-habitation challenges with puffy skin (PS)-affected fish (Trojans) collected from the field. Two separate challenges were conducted using Trojans sourced from two different sites and diploid (first trial) or triploid (second trial) naïve fish. PSD-specific clinical signs were observed in both groups of naïve fish, with 66% of the fish sampled during the challenges showing signs of varying severity. The first clinical features of PSD were presented as white oval skin patches on one or both flanks 15-21 days post-challenge (dpc). The extent of the lesions ranged from 10 to 90% of the body surface, depending on the severity of the lesion. Both the severity and number of affected fish increased during the challenge. Macroscopically, oedema of the skin and multifocal petechial haemorrhaging were observed towards the end of the trials. Abnormal fish behaviour consisting of "flashing" and excessive mucous production was noted from 15 dpc onwards. Fish with severe PSD lesions also displayed inappetence and associated emaciation. Rodlet cells were observed in 41% of the fresh skin scrapes analysed from the second trial. Histologically epidermal oedema was observed in 31% of the naive fish showing gross pathology, with additional 12% displaying epidermal hyperplasia, mostly observed at the end of the challenge. Other concomitant features of the PSD lesions in challenged fish were epithelial erosion and sloughing, and occasionally mild or focal inflammation. No consistent pathology of internal organs was observed. The parasites Ichthyophthirius multifiliis and Ichthyobodo necator were observed in skin samples of a proportion of naïve challenged fish and in Trojans but not in control fish. The presence of these and other known fish pathogens in the skin of PSD-fish was confirmed by high-throughput sequencing analysis. In summary, we have demonstrated that PSD is a transmissible condition. However, even though a number of known fish pathogens were identified in the skin tissues of PSD-fish, the actual causative infectious agent(s) remain(s) unknown.

In this study, we review the application of epidemiology and economics to decision-making about freedom from aquatic animal disease, at national and regional level, and recent examples from Europe. Epidemiological data (e.g. pathogen prevalence and distribution) determine the technical feasibility and cost of eradication. The eradication of pathogens which exist in wild populations, or in a latent state, is technically difficult, uncertain and expensive. Notably, the eradication of diseases of molluscs is rarely attempted because host populations (farmed and wild) cannot be completely removed from open water systems. Doubt about the success of eradication translates into uncertain ex-ante cost estimates. Additionally, the benefits of an official disease-free status cannot be estimated with any accuracy. For example, in Europe, official freedom from epizootic ulcerative syndrome and white spot syndrome virus has not been pursued, arguably because the evidence does not exist for the benefits (reduced risk of disease in wild populations) to be estimated and thus weighed against the costs of maintaining disease freedom (e.g. restriction on imports). Economic analysis must assess not only whether the benefits of disease freedom outweigh costs, but whether it is the economically optimal disease control option. Government may also want to compare investment in aquatic animal health with other opportunities. As resources become scarce, governments have sought to share costs of disease control with industry, and thus to ensure equity, the distribution benefits must be known so costs can be borne by those who benefit. The economic principles to support decisions about disease freedom are well established, but their application is constrained by lack of epidemiological data, which may explain the lack of economic analysis in support of aquatic animal management in Europe. The integration of epidemiology and economics in disease control planning will identify research aimed at improving the underpinning evidence base., (© 2014 Crown copyright This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.)

The application of risk analysis to the spread of disease with international trade in animals and their products, that is, import risk analysis (IRA), has been largely driven by the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The degree to which the IRA standard established by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), and associated guidance, meets the needs of the SPS agreement is discussed. The use of scenario trees is the core modelling approach used to represent the steps necessary for the hazard to occur. There is scope to elaborate scenario trees for commodity IRA so that the quantity of hazard at each step is assessed, which is crucial to the likelihood of establishment. The dependence between exposure and establishment suggests that they should fall within the same subcomponent. IRA undertaken for trade reasons must include an assessment of consequences to meet SPS criteria, but guidance is sparse. The integration of epidemiological and economic modelling may open a path for better methods. Matrices have been used in qualitative IRA to combine estimates of entry and exposure, and consequences with likelihood, but this approach has flaws and better methods are needed. OIE IRA standards and guidance indicate that the volume of trade should be taken into account, but offer no detail. Some published qualitative IRAs have assumed current levels and patterns of trade without specifying the volume of trade, which constrains the use of IRA to determine mitigation measures (to reduce risk to an acceptable level) and whether the principle of equivalence, fundamental to the SPS agreement, has been observed. It is questionable whether qualitative IRA can meet all the criteria set out in the SPS agreement. Nevertheless, scope exists to elaborate the current standards and guidance, so they better serve the principle of science-based decision-making., (© 2013 Crown copyright. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.)

A new skin condition, known as puffy skin disease (PSD), emerged in farmed rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum) in 2002. The number of new cases increased considerably from 2006. Clinical signs include white or grey skin patches, which become raised and red with excessive mucous production and scale loss. Fish are inappetant and lose condition. Histologically, the key feature is epithelial hyperplasia. We undertook a questionnaire study of trout farmers in England and Wales to investigate prevalence and risk factors. PSD was reported on 37% (n = 49) of rainbow trout sites, located in 28 river catchments. The increase in cases from 2006 onwards was mirrored by the increase in red mark syndrome (RMS). Prevalence and severity of PSD were highest in the summer months. The presence of PSD was associated with RMS (OR = 9.7, P < 0.001). Sites receiving live rainbow trout in the previous 12 months were considerably more likely to have PSD (OR = 5.3. P < 0.01), which suggests an infectious aetiology. The size of affected fish and prevalence varied between farms, indicating that farm-level factors are important. Future research should further investigate the aetiology of PSD and practices to manage the disease., (© 2014 Crown copyright.)

An expert consultation was conducted to provide quantitative parameters required to inform risk-based surveillance of aquaculture holdings for selected infectious hazards. The hazards were four fish diseases endemic in some or several European countries: infectious salmon anaemia (ISA), viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS), infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN), and koi herpes virus disease (KHD). Experts were asked to provide estimates for the relative importance of 5 risk themes for the hazard to be introduced into and infect susceptible fish at the destination. The 5 risk themes were: (1) live fish and egg movements; (2) exposure via water; (3) on-site processing; (4) short distance mechanical transmission and (5) distance independent mechanical transmission. The experts also provided parameter estimates for hazard transmission pathways within the themes. The expert consultation was undertaken in a 2 step approach: an online survey followed by an expert consultation meeting. The expert opinion indicated that live fish movements and exposure via water were the major relevant risk themes. Experts were recruited from several European countries and thus covered a range of farming systems. Therefore, the outputs from the expert consultation have relevance for the European context., (Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We developed a model to calculate a quantitative risk score for individual aquaculture sites. The score indicates the risk of the site being infected with a specific fish pathogen (viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV); infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus, Koi herpes virus), and is intended to be used for risk ranking sites to support surveillance for demonstration of zone or member state freedom from these pathogens. The inputs to the model include a range of quantitative and qualitative estimates of risk factors organised into five risk themes (1) Live fish and egg movements; (2) Exposure via water; (3) On-site processing; (4) Short-distance mechanical transmission; (5) Distance-independent mechanical transmission. The calculated risk score for an individual aquaculture site is a value between zero and one and is intended to indicate the risk of a site relative to the risk of other sites (thereby allowing ranking). The model was applied to evaluate 76 rainbow trout farms in 3 countries (42 from England, 32 from Italy and 2 from Switzerland) with the aim to establish their risk of being infected with VHSV. Risk scores for farms in England and Italy showed great variation, clearly enabling ranking. Scores ranged from 0.002 to 0.254 (mean score 0.080) in England and 0.011 to 0.778 (mean of 0.130) for Italy, reflecting the diversity of infection status of farms in these countries. Requirements for broader application of the model are discussed. Cost efficient farm data collection is important to realise the benefits from a risk-based approach., (Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

A qualitative import risk assessment was undertaken to assess the likelihood of introduction and establishment of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype 1a in England and Wales (E&W), via the processing of imported rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) carcasses from continental Europe. The likelihood was estimated for one import from an infected farm. Four main routes by which susceptible populations could be exposed to VHSV via processing waste were considered: (i) run-off from solid waste to watercourses, (ii) contamination of birds or rodents with VHSV by scavenging solid waste, (iii) discharge of liquid waste to mains drainage, and (iv) discharge of liquid waste directly to watercourses. Data on the biophysical characteristics of VHSV, its epidemiology, fish processing practices and waste management were collected. Likelihoods for each step of the four pathways were estimated. Pathway 4 (discharge of liquid waste to a watercourse) was judged as the most likely to result in infection of susceptible individuals. Levels of virus entering the aquatic environment via pathways 1-3 were judged to be many times lower than pathway 4 due mainly to the treatment of solid waste (pathways 1 and 2) and high levels of dilution (pathways 1, 2 and 3). Thirty-four trout farms process fish, of which seven have imported carcasses for processing. Compared with other processing facilities, on-farm processing results in a higher likelihood of VHSV exposure and establishment via all four pathways. Data availability was an issue; the analysis was particularly constrained by a lack of data on the prevalence of VHSV in Europe, volume of trade of carcasses into the UK and processing practices in E&W. It was concluded that the threat of VHSV introduction into E&W could be reduced by treatment of liquid effluent from processing plants and by sourcing carcasses for on-farm processing only from approved VHSV free areas., (© 2012 Crown copyright. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office/Queen's Printer for Scotland and Aquatic Animal Disease, CEFAS.)

Animal diseases gain political attention by their inclusion on lists of global bodies such as those of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). Inclusion requires national governments to report outbreaks promptly but may lead to trading restrictions between nations in an attempt to limit spread. Detection therefore has consequences that may have direct impact from farm to state levels. We consider here current approaches to discriminating listed parasites from related but unlisted counterparts. We outline necessary drivers for the discrimination of important taxa and how these may be influenced by national policies. Further, we propose a set of 'best practice' measures, broadly based upon current taxonomic philosophies for protists and metazoans, that should be applied when defining taxa for listing as notifiable., (Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Farmed and wild salmonids are affected by a variety of skin conditions, some of which have significant economic and welfare implications. In many cases, the causes are not well understood, and one example is cold water strawberry disease of rainbow trout, also called red mark syndrome, which has been recorded in the UK since 2003. To date, there are no internationally agreed methods for describing these conditions, which has caused confusion for farmers and health professionals, who are often unclear as to whether they are dealing with a new or a previously described condition. This has resulted, inevitably, in delays to both accurate diagnosis and effective treatment regimes. Here, we provide a standardized methodology for the description of skin conditions of rainbow trout of uncertain aetiology. We demonstrate how the approach can be used to develop case definitions, using coldwater strawberry disease as an example., (© 2013 Crown copyright.)

Ambient water temperature is a key factor controlling the distribution and impact of disease in fish populations, and optimum temperature ranges have been characterised for the establishment of a number important aquatic diseases exotic to the UK. This study presents a simple regression method to approximate daily average surface water temperature in lakes of 0.5-15 ha in size across the UK using 5 km(2) gridded daily average air temperatures provided by the UK Meteorological Office. A Geographic information system (GIS) is used to present thematic maps of relative risk scores established for each grid cell based on the mean number of days per year that water temperature satisfied optimal criteria for the establishment of two economically important pathogens of cyprinid fish (koi herpesvirus (KHV) and spring viraemia of carp virus (SVCV)) and the distribution and density of fish populations susceptible to these viruses. High-density susceptible populations broadly overlap the areas where the temperature profiles are optimal for KHV (central and south-east England); however, few fish populations occur in areas where temperature profiles are most likely to result in the establishment of spring viremia of carp (SVC) (namely northern England and Scotland). The highest grid-cell risk scores for KHV and SVC were 7 and 6, respectively, out of a maximum score of 14. The proportion of grid cells containing susceptible populations with risk scores of 5 or more was 37% and 5% for KHV and SVC, respectively. This work demonstrates a risk-based approach to inform surveillance for exotic pathogens in aquatic animal health management, allowing efficient use of resources directed towards higher risk animals and geographic areas for early disease detection. The methodology could be used to examine the change in distribution of high-risk areas for both exotic and endemic fish diseases under different climate change scenarios., (© 2012 Crown copyright Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office and Cefas, Aquatic Animal Disease Group.)

Spring viraemia of carp (SVC) is a disease of international importance that predominantly affects cyprinid fish and can cause significant mortality. In the United Kingdom (UK), SVC was first detected in 1977 with further cases occurring in fisheries, farms, wholesale and retail establishments throughout England and Wales (but not Scotland, where few cyprinid populations exist, nor Northern Ireland where SVC has never been detected) over the subsequent 30 years. Following a control and eradication programme for the disease initiated in 2005, the UK was recognised free of the disease in 2010. This study compiles historic records of SVC cases in England and Wales with a view to understanding its routes of introduction and spread, and assessing the effectiveness of the control and eradication programme in order to improve contingency plans to prevent and control future disease incursions in the cyprinid fish sectors. Between 1977 and 2010 the presence of SVC was confirmed on 108 occasions, with 65 of the cases occurring in sport fisheries and the majority of the remainder occurring in the ornamental fish sector. The study found that throughout the history of SVC in the UK, though cases were widely distributed, their occurrence was sporadic and the virus did not become endemic. All evidence indicates that SVC was not able to persist under UK environmental conditions, suggesting that the majority of cases were a result of new introductions to the UK as opposed to within-country spread. The control and eradication programme adopted in 2005 was highly effective and two years after its implementation cases of SVC ceased. Given the non-persistent nature of the pathogen the most important aspect of the control programme focused on preventing re-introduction of the virus to the UK. Despite the effectiveness of these controls against SVC, this approach is likely to be less effective against more persistent pathogens such as koi herpesvirus, which are likely to require more stringent measures to prevent within-country spread., (Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

New and emerging fish and shellfish diseases represent an important constraint to the growth and sustainability of many aquaculture sectors and have also caused substantial economic and environmental impacts in wild stocks. This paper details the results of 8 years of a monitoring programme for emerging aquatic animal diseases reported around the world. The objectives were to track global occurrences and, more specifically, to identify and provide advanced warning of disease threats that may affect wild and farmed fish stocks in the UK. A range of electronic information sources, including Internet newsletters, alerting services and news agency releases, was systematically searched for reports of new diseases, new presentations of known pathogens and known diseases occurring in new geographic locations or new host species. A database was established to log the details of key findings, and 250 emerging disease events in 52 countries were recorded during the period of study. These included 14 new diseases and a further 16 known diseases in new species. Viruses and parasites accounted for the majority of reports (55% and 24%, respectively), and known diseases occurring in new locations were the most important emerging disease category (in which viruses were dominant). Emerging diseases were reported disproportionally in salmonid species (33%), in farmed populations (62%) and in Europe and North America (80%). The lack of reports from some regions with significant aquaculture or fishery production may indicate that emerging diseases are not being recognized in these areas owing to insufficient surveillance or testing or that these events are being under-reported. The results are discussed in relation to processes underpinning disease emergence in the aquatic environment., (© 2011 Crown Copyright. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office and Centre for Environment Fisheries & Aquaculture Science.)

Seafood is a highly traded food commodity. Farmed and captured crustaceans contribute a significant proportion with annual production exceeding 10 M metric tonnes with first sale value of $40bn. The sector is dominated by farmed tropical marine shrimp, the fastest growing sector of the global aquaculture industry. It is significant in supporting rural livelihoods and alleviating poverty in producing nations within Asia and Latin America while forming an increasing contribution to aquatic food supply in more developed countries. Nations with marine borders often also support important marine fisheries for crustaceans that are regionally traded as live animals and commodity products. A general separation of net producing and net consuming nations for crustacean seafood has created a truly globalised food industry. Projections for increasing global demand for seafood in the face of level or declining fisheries requires continued expansion and intensification of aquaculture while ensuring best utilisation of captured stocks. Furthermore, continued pressure from consuming nations to ensure safe products for human consumption are being augmented by additional legislative requirements for animals (and their products) to be of low disease status. As a consequence, increasing emphasis is being placed on enforcement of regulations and better governance of the sector; currently this is a challenge in light of a fragmented industry and less stringent regulations associated with animal disease within producer nations. Current estimates predict that up to 40% of tropical shrimp production (>$3bn) is lost annually, mainly due to viral pathogens for which standard preventative measures (e.g. such as vaccination) are not feasible. In light of this problem, new approaches are urgently required to enhance yield by improving broodstock and larval sourcing, promoting best management practices by farmer outreach and supporting cutting-edge research that aims to harness the natural abilities of invertebrates to mitigate assault from pathogens (e.g. the use of RNA interference therapeutics). In terms of fisheries losses associated with disease, key issues are centred on mortality and quality degradation in the post-capture phase, largely due to poor grading and handling by fishers and the industry chain. Occurrence of disease in wild crustaceans is also widely reported, with some indications that climatic changes may be increasing susceptibility to important pathogens (e.g. the parasite Hematodinium). However, despite improvements in field and laboratory diagnostics, defining population-level effects of disease in these fisheries remains elusive. Coordination of disease specialists with fisheries scientists will be required to understand current and future impacts of existing and emergent diseases on wild stocks. Overall, the increasing demand for crustacean seafood in light of these issues signals a clear warning for the future sustainability of this global industry. The linking together of global experts in the culture, capture and trading of crustaceans with pathologists, epidemiologists, ecologists, therapeutics specialists and policy makers in the field of food security will allow these issues to be better identified and addressed., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

High levels of mortality in Pacific oysters Crassostrea gigas in the Republic of Ireland were recorded during the summer of 2009. The new variant of Ostreid herpes 1 (OsHV-1 μVar) which first emerged in France in 2008 was identified from affected stocks. Retrospective data was collected from 70 oyster farmers through an interviewer-administered questionnaire to investigate the distribution and determinants of the mortality. Based on farmer recall, data were recorded at the batch level for cumulative mortality during 2009, start dates and duration of the mortality event and the age of animals affected. Observable mortalities were recorded in 109 out of 346 batches at 47 sites; 104 of the 109 batches were located in bays where OsHV-1 μVar had been detected. The records from bays where OsHV-1 μVar had been detected were analysed to characterize the pattern of mortality and potential risk factors. Batch mortality averaged 37% (18-65% quartiles) but showed a bimodal distribution (half the batches had mortality less than 45%). Mortalities started at the end of May and continued until early August, peaking in early July. On average oysters died over a period of 18 days. Mortality varied considerably both between and within bays. Mortality started in recently introduced batches and occurred later in the summer in established oysters, which is consistent with the introduction of an infectious agent. Mortality was significantly lower in adults compared with other age groups, which supports observations from France. Three variables were significantly (P<0.05) associated, in both bivariate screening and a logistic regression, with high batch-level mortality (>40%): oysters (i) introduced as juveniles, (ii) during or since the winter of 2008/9 and (iii) which spent less than 8h out of water (in a tidal cycle) (compared with oysters introduced as adults before the winter of 2008/9 and spending more than 8h out of water). Twenty-one percent of triploid batches experienced "high" (>40%) mortality compared with 10% for diploid batches which was significant (P<0.05) in the initial bivariate screening but not in the final logistic regression model. Future studies should develop improved methods to assess oyster mortality and follow stocks over time to better determine the influence of management and environmental factors on mortality., (Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The growth in penaeid shrimp aquaculture has been mirrored by the emergence of a number of serious diseases, some of which (e.g. white spot syndrome virus - WSSV) spread rapidly across the globe through movement of infected stock. The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) lists six penaeid shrimp pathogens of which three are notifiable in the EU: WSSV (listed as non-exotic to the EU), Taura syndrome virus (TSV) and yellow head disease (YHD) (both listed as exotic). EU Member States (MS) must determine a status for non-exotic diseases (e.g. disease free, unknown, infected). In developing a policy for WSSV, import risk analysis (IRA) can be used to systematically assess the risks of introduction and justify risk mitigation to maintain freedom. OIE guidelines recommend that countries assess the risk of disease introduction via commodities, not listed by the OIE as safe, and apply sanitary measures if necessary. The sanitary measures necessary to maintain freedom from WSSV may not be compatible with current EU animal health legislation. The recent revision by OIE of products listed as safe for international trade strengthens the case for the risks of TSV and YHD introduction into the EU to be assessed. Freedom from WSSV is an important criterion for the development of shrimp aquaculture in the EU. However, in developing disease control policy, governments need to balance the potentially competing interests of all stakeholders, including consumers. Thus economic modelling of the impact of possible sanitary measures on consumer prices of imported products is needed to support decision making. The creation of disease free compartments and post-import risk mitigation for commodities may create the conditions conducive to the development of shrimp aquaculture whilst minimising the costs of maintaining disease freedom., (Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

A semi-quantitative model is presented to rank freshwater rainbow trout farms within a country or region with regards to the risk of becoming infected and spreading a specified pathogen. The model was developed to support a risk-based surveillance scheme for notifiable salmonid pathogens. Routes of pathogen introduction and spread were identified through a process of expert consultation in a series of workshops. The routes were combined into themes (e.g. exposure via water, mechanical transmission). Themes were weighted based on expert opinion. Risk factors for each route were scored and combined into a theme score which was adjusted by the weight. The number of sources and consignments were used to assess introduction via live fish movements onto the farm. Biosecurity measures were scored to assess introduction on fomites. Upstream farms, wild fish and processing plants were included in assessing the likelihood of introduction by water. The scores for each theme were combined to give separate risk scores for introduction and spread. A matrix was used to combine these to give an overall risk score. A case study for viral haemorrhagic septicaemia is presented. Nine farms that represent a range of farming practices of rainbow trout farms in England and Wales are used as worked examples of the model. The model is suited to risk rank freshwater salmonid farms which are declared free of the pathogen(s) under consideration. The score allocated to a farm does not equate to a quantitative probability estimate of the farm to become infected or spread infection. Nevertheless, the method provides a transparent approach to ranking farms with regards to pathogen transmission risks. The output of the model at a regional or national level allows the allocation of surveillance effort to be risk based. It also provides fish farms with information on how they can reduce their risk score by improving biosecurity. The framework of the model can be applied to different production systems which may have other routes of disease spread. Further work is recommended to validate the allocated scores. Expert opinion was obtained through workshops, where the outputs from groups were single point estimates for relative weights of risks. More formal expert opinion elicitation methods could be used to capture variation in the experts' estimates and uncertainty and would provide data on which to simulate the model stochastically. The model can be downloaded (in Microsoft(®)-Excel format) from the Internet at: http://www.cefas.defra.gov.uk/6701.aspx., (Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Over recent years the growth in aquaculture, accompanied by the emergence of new and transboundary diseases, has stimulated epidemiological studies of aquatic animal diseases. Great potential exists for both observational and theoretical approaches to investigate the processes driving emergence but, to date, compared to terrestrial systems, relatively few studies exist in aquatic animals. Research using risk methods has assessed routes of introduction of aquatic animal pathogens to facilitate safe trade (e.g. import risk analyses) and support biosecurity. Epidemiological studies of risk factors for disease in aquaculture (most notably Atlantic salmon farming) have effectively supported control measures. Methods developed for terrestrial livestock diseases (e.g. risk-based surveillance) could improve the capacity of aquatic animal surveillance systems to detect disease incursions and emergence. The study of disease in wild populations presents many challenges and the judicious use of theoretical models offers some solutions. Models, parameterised from observational studies of host pathogen interactions, have been used to extrapolate estimates of impacts on the individual to the population level. These have proved effective in estimating the likely impact of parasite infections on wild salmonid populations in Switzerland and Canada (where the importance of farmed salmon as a reservoir of infection was investigated). A lack of data is often the key constraint in the application of new approaches to surveillance and modelling. The need for epidemiological approaches to protect aquatic animal health will inevitably increase in the face of the combined challenges of climate change, increasing anthropogenic pressures, limited water sources and the growth in aquaculture.

It is well known that the transboundary spread of infectious diseases is aided by trade in live animals and the consequences can be severe if, as a result, a pathogen broadens its host range to new species. Trade in aquatic animal species is increasing, and aquaculture is also expanding to meet the growing human population's demands for animal protein. Moreover, it is clear that aquaculture has created potential new pathways by which pathogens and diseases may be introduced or spread to new areas. The risk of pathogen transfer is generally considered greater for the movement of live aquatic animals than for the movement of processed and dead products. The currently available health standards support the concept of minimising the risk of disease and pathogen incursion while, at the same time, avoiding unjustifiable or unnecessary impediments to trade. Nevertheless, the international spread of diseases through the movement of animals still occurs, despite these standards. Consequently, this paper considers the evidence linking international trade in aquatic animals and aquatic animal-derived products with the transmission and spread of diseases. The authors provide examples of pathogen transfer leading to disease spread and considerthe situation of emerging diseases, as well as the need for a holistic approach to deal with risk-based threats at their source.

A risk framework has been developed to examine the influence of climate change on disease emergence in the United Kingdom. The fish immune response and the replication of pathogens are often correlated with water temperature, which manifest as temperature ranges for infection and clinical diseases. These data are reviewed for the major endemic and exotic disease threats to freshwater fish. Increasing water temperatures will shift the balance in favour of either the host or pathogen, changing the frequency and distribution of disease. A number of endemic diseases of salmonids (e.g. enteric red mouth, furunculosis, proliferative kidney disease and white spot) will become more prevalent and difficult to control as water temperatures increase. Outbreaks of koi herpesvirus in carp fisheries are likely to occur over a longer period each summer. Climate change also alters the threat level associated with exotic pathogens. The risk of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHSV), infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) and spring viraemia of carp virus (SVCV) declines as infection generally only establishes when water temperatures are less than 14°C for VHSV and IHNV and 17°C for SCVC. The risk of establishment of other exotic pathogens (epizootic haematopoietic necrosis and epizootic ulcerative syndrome) increases. The spread of Lactococcus garvieae northwards in Europe is likely to continue, and thus is more likely to be both introduced and become established. Measures to reduce the threat of exotic pathogens need to be revised to account for the changing exotic diseases threat. Increasing water temperatures and the negative effects of extreme weather events (e.g. storms) are likely to alter the freshwater environment adversely for both wild and farmed salmonid populations, increasing their susceptibility to disease and the likelihood of disease emergence. For wild populations, surveillance and risk mitigation need to be focused on locations where disease emergence, as a result of climate change, is most likely., (© 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.)

Koi herpesvirus (KHV) causes a highly virulent disease affecting carp, Cyprinus carpio L., and poses a serious socio-economic threat to the UK carp industry. This study aimed to determine the geographic distribution and prevalence of KHV exposed fish in England and Wales through ELISA antibody testing. Only three of the 82 farms sampled produced positive results, suggesting fish farms provide a relatively safe source of fish. Of the 71 'high-risk' fisheries tested, 26 were positive. All eight geographic areas within England and Wales studied had at least one KHV positive site. Twelve consignments of imported koi carp from seven S.E. Asian countries were tested for KHV antibody. Six consignments from six different countries were positive. Although a high proportion of consignments were positive, the results indicate that lower risk stocks of fish exist that could be sourced by the ornamental carp sector. The study provides evidence that KHV is widespread and prevalent in 'high-risk' fisheries. There are, however, prospects for controlling KHV as English and Welsh farms appear to be relatively free of the virus, and in most cases fish are not moved from fisheries to other waters.

Epizootic haematopoietic necrosis virus (EHNV) is an iridovirus that affects perch (Perca fluviatilis) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). It emerged in Australia in the 1980s and has not been discovered elsewhere. It causes a high level of mortality in perch resulting in steep population declines. The main possible routes of introduction of the virus to England and Wales are the importation of infected live fish or carcasses. However, no trade in live susceptible species is permitted under current legislation, and no importation of carcasses currently takes place. The virus is hardy and low levels of challenge can infect perch. Therefore, mechanical transmission through the importation of non-susceptible fish species should be considered as a potential route of introduction and establishment. Carp (Cyprinus carpio) have been imported to the UK from Australia for release into still-water fisheries. A qualitative risk assessment concluded that the likelihood of EHNV introduction and establishment in England and Wales with the importation of a consignment of carp was very low. The level of uncertainty at a number of steps in the risk assessment scenario tree was high, notably the likelihood that carp become contaminated with the virus and whether effective contact (resulting in pathogen transmission) is made between the introduced carp and susceptible species in England and Wales. The virus would only establish when the water temperature is greater than 12 degrees C. Analysis of 10 years of data from two rivers in south-west England indicated that establishment could occur over a period of at least 14 weeks a year in southern England (when average water temperature exceed 12 degrees C). Imports of live fish from Australia need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis to determine which, if any, sanitary measures are required to reduce the assessed risk to an acceptable level.

The prevalence of renal myxosporidiosis in wild brown trout, Salmo trutta, in seven river catchments in South-West England was investigated. Three hundred and twenty-seven fish were sampled from 16 sites, of which 54 (16.5%) were found, by histological examination of the kidney, to be infected with Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, the causative agent of proliferative kidney disease. No T. bryosalmonae infected fish were found in one river catchment, in other catchments the prevalence ranged from 2.5% to 36%. Hepatitis was strongly associated with the presence of T. bryosalmonae (odds ratio = 20.2, P < 0.001). Chloromyxum schurovi was found in 25% of fish and in six of seven river catchments, where the prevalence ranged from 2.4% to 63%. There was a strong negative association between the presence of T. bryosalmonae and C. schurovi (odds ratio = 0.10, P < 0.001). A hierarchical binomal model of the variance indicated that for T. bryosalmonae most of the variance existed at the site level, whereas for C. schurovi most variance existed at the river catchment level, suggesting that prevalence of T. bryosalmonae infection is determined largely by site level factors (e.g. presence of alternate host). The intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were 0.2 and 0.4 for T. bryosalmonae and C. schurovi, respectively, indicating the latter has higher effective transmission because of a higher level of infectiousness and/or abundance of alternate oligochaete hosts. These values can be used in future studies to estimate the sample sizes required to generate prevalence estimates with the required precision.

A cross-sectional survey of Renibacterium salmoninarum infection in farmed rainbow trout (RBT) and wild fish populations was carried out in 10 farms and six river catchments, respectively, in England and Wales. The majority of the wild fish were sampled in 1998 and the farmed fish in 2000. Grayling, Thymallus thymallus, and brown trout, Salmo trutta, were the main wild species sampled. Two fish, one grayling and one salmon, Salmo salar, were R. salmoninarum culture-positive, compared with 40 confirmed polymerase chain reaction-positive wild fish. The highest prevalence of R. salmoninarum infection was found in grayling in rivers with RBT farms with a history of R. salmoninarum infection. One hundred and fifty fish were sampled from each RBT farm, but none of the fish was found to be R. salmoninarum-positive. Evidence was found, for the first time, for the presence of R. salmoninarum in an eel, Anguilla anguilla.

Risk analysis has only been regularly used in the management of aquatic animal health in recent years. The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures (SPS) stimulated the application of risk analysis to investigate disease risks associated with international trade (import risk analysis-IRA). A majority (9 of 17) of the risk analyses reviewed were IRA. The other major focus has been the parasite of Atlantic salmon--Gyrodactylus salaris. Six studies investigated the spread of this parasite, between countries, rivers and from farmed to wild stocks, and clearly demonstrated that risk analysis can support aquatic animal health policy development, from international trade and biosecurity to disease interaction between wild and farmed stocks. Other applications of risk analysis included the spread of vertically transmitted pathogens and disease emergence in aquaculture. The Covello-Merkhofer, risk analysis model was most commonly used and appears to be a flexible tool not only for IRA but also the investigation of disease spread in other contexts. The limitations of the identified risk assessments were discussed. A majority were qualitative, partly due to the lack of data for quantitative analysis, and this, it can be argued, constrained their usefulness for trade purposes (i.e. setting appropriate sanitary measures); in other instances, a qualitative result was found to be adequate for decision making. A lack of information about the disease hazards of the large number of fish species traded is likely to constrain quantitative analysis for a number of years. The consequence assessment element of a risk analysis was most likely to be omitted, or limited in scope and depth, rarely extending beyond examining the evidence of susceptibility of farmed and wild species to the identified hazard. The reasons for this are discussed and recommendations made to develop guidelines for a consistent, systematic and multi-disciplinary approach to consequence assessment. Risk analysis has improved decision making in aquatic animal health management by providing a transparent method for using the available scientific information. The lack of data is the main constraint to the application of risk analysis in aquatic animal health. The identification of critical parameters is an important output from risk analysis models which should be used to prioritise research.

A sample of dairy farms in Great Britain with a monthly bulk milk somatic cell count of less than 150,000 cells/ml was enrolled into a 12-month prospective study. At the end of the study, a questionnaire on milking practice and other farm management practices was sent to the 482 farmers who had collected data on the occurrence of mastitis throughout the 12 months. The response rate was 93 per cent. The reported mean incidence of clinical mastitis was 36.9 cases per 100 cow-years. Factors associated with an increase in the incidence of clinical mastitis were cleaning out the straw yard less frequently than every six weeks, more than 5 per cent of cows leaking milk outside the parlour, checking the foremilk, wearing gloves during milking, an average annual milk yield of more than 7000 litres per cow, dipping or spraying teats before milking and keeping milk with a high somatic cell count out of the bulk tank. Factors associated with a decrease in the incidence of clinical mastitis were using a cloth to dry the teats after washing them as part of premilking preparation, using calving boxes for less than 40 per cent of calvings, and using both cubicles and straw yards to house dry cows, as opposed to other housing.

The expansion of aquaculture and the demand for ornamental fish have resulted in the large-scale movements of aquatic animals and their pathogens. Here we review the most important non-native fish and shellfish pathogens in European waters and their global impacts on wild fish host populations. The role of theoretical models in the study of the impact of microbial pathogens is discussed, including its integration into risk assessments.

Numerous diseases have emerged as serious economic or ecological problems in aquaculture species. The combination of factors behind the emergence of each disease is unique, but various common factors are apparent. We combine risk-analysis methods and virulence theory with historical examples (mainly from salmonid production) to identify key disease-emergence risk factors. Diseases have emerged through pathogen exchange with wild populations, evolution from non-pathogenic micro-organisms and anthropogenic transfer of stocks. Aquacultural practices frequently result in high population densities and other stresses (such as intercurrent disease) which increase the risk of infection establishment and spread. As aquaculture expands and new species are farmed, diseases will continue to emerge and affect both wild and farmed fish adversely. The rate and extent of emergence can be reduced by the application of biosecurity programmes designed to mitigate the risk factors for disease emergence.

Gyrodactylus salaris is a freshwater, monogenean ecto-parasite of Atlantic-salmon. Infection of its natural host, the Baltic strain of Atlantic-salmon, is inapparent. G. salaris also can infect rainbow-trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) permanently, and cause infection of < or =50 days in several other species. It is only on Atlantic stocks of Atlantic-salmon (Salmo salar) that the parasite multiplies unchecked by an immune response, causes death in juveniles and dramatic reductions in wild populations. In Norway, the parasite has been introduced into 45 rivers, resulting in reductions in Atlantic-salmon stocks of up to 98%. It is probably the most-important exotic fish-disease threat to the UK. We used risk analysis to assess the most-important routes of spread for G. salaris between rivers in England and Wales. The movement of live rainbow-trout was identified as the most-important route of transmission; this route is likely to lead rapidly to the wide geographic spread of the parasite. The movement of other species of fish (especially from sites holding rainbow-trout) is also an important risk. Other routes of spread (including mechanical transmission on farm equipment and vehicles, angling equipment, canoes, etc.) might allow limited local spread (mainly to neighbouring rivers).

Two analytical approaches were used to investigate the relationship between somatic cell concentrations in monthly quarter milk samples and subsequent, naturally occurring clinical mastitis in three dairy herds. Firstly, cows with clinical mastitis were selected and a conventional matched analysis was used to compare affected and unaffected quarters of the same cow. The second analysis included all cows, and in order to overcome potential bias associated with the correlation structure, a hierarchical Bayesian generalised linear mixed model was specified. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, that is Gibbs sampling, was used to estimate parameters. The results of both the matched analysis and the hierarchical modelling suggested that quarters with a somatic cell count (SCC) in the range 41,000-100,000 cells/ml had a lower risk of clinical mastitis during the next month than quarters <41,000 cell/ml. Quarters with an SCC >200,000 cells/ml were at the greatest risk of clinical mastitis in the next month. There was a reduced risk of clinical mastitis between 1 and 2 months later in quarters with an SCC of 81,000-150,000 cells/ml compared with quarters below this level. The hierarchical modelling analysis identified a further reduced risk of clinical mastitis between 2 and 3 months later in quarters with an SCC 61,000-150,000 cells/ml, compared to other quarters. We conclude that low concentrations of somatic cells in milk are associated with increased risk of clinical mastitis, and that high concentrations are indicative of pre-existing immunological mobilisation against infection. The variation in risk between quarters of affected cows suggests that local quarter immunological events, rather than solely whole cow factors, have an important influence on the risk of clinical mastitis. MCMC proved a useful tool for estimating parameters in a hierarchical Bernoulli model. Model construction and an approach to assessing goodness of model fit are described.

This research investigated somatic cell count (SCC) records during lactation, with the purpose of identifying distribution characteristics (mean and measures of variation) that were most closely associated with clinical mastitis. Three separate data sets were used, one containing quarter SCC (n = 1444) and two containing cow SCC (n = 933 and 11,825). Clinical mastitis was defined as a binary outcome, present or absent, for each lactation, and SCC were log (base 10) transformed. A generalized linear mixed model within a Bayesian framework was used for analysis. Parameters were estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo with Gibbs sampling. Results from the 3 data sets were similar. Increased maximum and standard deviation log SCC during lactation, rather than increased geometric mean, were the best overall indicators of clinical mastitis. Distributions of SCC were also investigated separately for different mastitis pathogens. Increased maximum log SCC was associated with clinical mastitis caused by all pathogen types. Increased standard deviation log SCC was associated with Staphylococcus aureus, and Streptococcus uberis clinical mastitis and increased coefficient of variation log SCC (standard deviation divided by mean) was associated with Escherichia coli clinical mastitis. Increased geometric mean lactation SCC was associated with an increased risk of Staph. aureus clinical mastitis but a reduced risk of E. coli clinical mastitis. Our results suggest that using measures of variation and maximum cow SCC would enhance the accuracy of predicting clinical mastitis, compared with geometric mean SCC, and therefore improve genetic programs that aim to select for clinical mastitis resistance. The results are also consistent with low SCC increasing susceptibility to some mastitis pathogens.