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1. Ecological countermeasures to prevent pathogen spillover and subsequent pandemics.

Author

Plowright, Raina, Ahmed, Aliyu, Coulson, Tim, Crowther, Thomas, Ejotre, Imran, Faust, Christina, Frick, Winifred, Hudson, Peter, Kingston, Tigga, Nameer, P, OMara, M, Peel, Alison, Possingham, Hugh, Razgour, Orly, Reeder, DeeAnn, Ruiz-Aravena, Manuel, Simmons, Nancy, Srinivas, Prashanth, Tabor, Gary, Tanshi, Iroro, Thompson, Ian, Vanak, Abi, Vora, Neil, Willison, Charley, and Keeley, Annika

Subjects
Animals, Pandemics, Zoonoses, Viruses, Ecosystem
Abstract

Substantial global attention is focused on how to reduce the risk of future pandemics. Reducing this risk requires investment in prevention, preparedness, and response. Although preparedness and response have received significant focus, prevention, especially the prevention of zoonotic spillover, remains largely absent from global conversations. This oversight is due in part to the lack of a clear definition of prevention and lack of guidance on how to achieve it. To address this gap, we elucidate the mechanisms linking environmental change and zoonotic spillover using spillover of viruses from bats as a case study. We identify ecological interventions that can disrupt these spillover mechanisms and propose policy frameworks for their implementation. Recognizing that pandemics originate in ecological systems, we advocate for integrating ecological approaches alongside biomedical approaches in a comprehensive and balanced pandemic prevention strategy.

Published
2024

2. Pool samples to efficiently estimate pathogen prevalence dynamics

Author

Scherting, Braden, Peel, Alison, Plowright, Raina, and Hoegh, Andrew

Subjects
Statistics - Applications
Abstract

Estimating the prevalence of a disease is necessary for evaluating and mitigating risks of its transmission within or between populations. Estimates that consider how prevalence changes with time provide more information about these risks but are difficult to obtain due to the necessary sampling intensity and commensurate testing costs. We propose pooling and jointly testing multiple samples to reduce testing costs and use a novel nonparametric, hierarchical Bayesian model to infer population prevalence from the pooled test results. This approach is shown to reduce uncertainty compared to individual testing at the same budget and to produce similar estimates compared to individual testing at a much higher budget through two synthetic studies and two case studies of natural infection data.

Published
2021

3. Ecology, evolution and spillover of coronaviruses from bats.

Author

Ruiz-Aravena, Manuel, McKee, Clifton, Gamble, Amandine, Lunn, Tamika, Morris, Aaron, Snedden, Celine, Yinda, Claude, Port, Julia, Buchholz, David, Yeo, Yao, Faust, Christina, Jax, Elinor, Dee, Lauren, Jones, Devin, Kessler, Maureen, Falvo, Caylee, Crowley, Daniel, Bharti, Nita, Brook, Cara, Aguilar, Hector, Peel, Alison, Restif, Olivier, Schountz, Tony, Parrish, Colin, Gurley, Emily, Hudson, Peter, Munster, Vincent, Plowright, Raina, and Lloyd-Smith, James

Subjects
Animals, COVID-19, Chiroptera, Evolution, Molecular, Humans, Phylogeny, SARS-CoV-2
Abstract

In the past two decades, three coronaviruses with ancestral origins in bats have emerged and caused widespread outbreaks in humans, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Since the first SARS epidemic in 2002-2003, the appreciation of bats as key hosts of zoonotic coronaviruses has advanced rapidly. More than 4,000 coronavirus sequences from 14 bat families have been identified, yet the true diversity of bat coronaviruses is probably much greater. Given that bats are the likely evolutionary source for several human coronaviruses, including strains that cause mild upper respiratory tract disease, their role in historic and future pandemics requires ongoing investigation. We review and integrate information on bat-coronavirus interactions at the molecular, tissue, host and population levels. We identify critical gaps in knowledge of bat coronaviruses, which relate to spillover and pandemic risk, including the pathways to zoonotic spillover, the infection dynamics within bat reservoir hosts, the role of prior adaptation in intermediate hosts for zoonotic transmission and the viral genotypes or traits that predict zoonotic capacity and pandemic potential. Filling these knowledge gaps may help prevent the next pandemic.

Published
2022

5. Possibility for reverse zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to free-ranging wildlife: A case study of bats.

Author

Olival, Kevin J, Cryan, Paul M, Amman, Brian R, Baric, Ralph S, Blehert, David S, Brook, Cara E, Calisher, Charles H, Castle, Kevin T, Coleman, Jeremy TH, Daszak, Peter, Epstein, Jonathan H, Field, Hume, Frick, Winifred F, Gilbert, Amy T, Hayman, David TS, Ip, Hon S, Karesh, William B, Johnson, Christine K, Kading, Rebekah C, Kingston, Tigga, Lorch, Jeffrey M, Mendenhall, Ian H, Peel, Alison J, Phelps, Kendra L, Plowright, Raina K, Reeder, DeeAnn M, Reichard, Jonathan D, Sleeman, Jonathan M, Streicker, Daniel G, Towner, Jonathan S, and Wang, Lin-Fa

Subjects
Animals, Animals, Wild, Chiroptera, Humans, Pneumonia, Viral, Coronavirus Infections, Genome, Viral, Host Specificity, Pandemics, Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Wild, Genome, Viral, Pneumonia, Virology, Microbiology, Immunology, Medical Microbiology
Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of β-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of β-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations.

Published
2020

6. Ecological and socioeconomic factors associated with the human burden of environmentally mediated pathogens: a global analysis

Author

Sokolow, Susanne H, Nova, Nicole, Jones, Isabel J, Wood, Chelsea L, Lafferty, Kevin D, Garchitorena, Andres, Hopkins, Skylar R, Lund, Andrea J, MacDonald, Andrew J, LeBoa, Christopher, Peel, Alison J, Mordecai, Erin A, Howard, Meghan E, Buck, Julia C, Lopez-Carr, David, Barry, Michele, Bonds, Matthew H, and De Leo, Giulio A

Published
2022
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7. Novel Hendra Virus Variant Circulating in Black Flying Foxes and Grey-Headed Flying Foxes, Australia

Author

Peel, Alison J., Yinda, Claude Kwe, Annand, Edward J., Dale, Adrienne S., Eby, Peggy, Eden, John-Sebastian, Jones, Devin N., Kessler, Maureen K., Lunn, Tamika J., Pearson, Tim, Schulz, Jonathan E., Smith, Ina L., Munster, Vincent J., and Plowright, Raina K.

Subjects
Henipaviruses -- Identification and classification -- Genetic aspects -- Distribution, Zoonoses -- Risk factors -- Environmental aspects, RNA virus infections -- Risk factors -- Environmental aspects, Company distribution practices, Health
Abstract

Hendra virus (HeV; genus Henipavirus, family Paramyxoviridae) is a well-characterised zoonotic pathogen endemic to Pteropus spp. bats (flying foxes) in Australia. Spillover from bats to horses has been detected 65 [...]

Published
2022
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8. Novel Hendra Virus Variant Detected by Sentinel Surveillance of Horses in Australia

Author

Annand, Edward J., Horsburgh, Bethany A., Xu, Kai, Reid, Peter A., Poole, Ben, de Kantzow, Maximillian C., Brown, Nicole, Tweedie, Alison, Michie, Michelle, Grewar, John D., Jackson, Anne E., Singanallur, Nagendrakumar B., Plain, Karren M., Kim, Karan, Tachedjian, Mary, van der Heide, Brenda, Crameri, Sandra, Williams, David T., Secombe, Cristy, Laing, Eric D., Sterling, Spencer, Yan, Lianying, Jackson, Louise, Jones, Cheryl, Plowright, Raina K., Peel, Alison J., Breed, Andrew C., Diallo, Ibrahim, Dhand, Navneet K., Britton, Philip N., Broder, Christopher C., Smith, Ina, and Eden, John-Sebastian

Subjects
Henipaviruses -- Identification and classification -- Health aspects -- Genetic aspects, Sentinel health events -- Usage, Zoonoses -- Causes of, Horses -- Diseases, Health
Abstract

Highly pathogenic zoonotic Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus (NiV) are prototypic members of the genus Henipavirus, family Paramyxoviridae, that have natural reservoirs in pteropodid flying foxes (1). These viruses [...]

Published
2022
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9. Evidence gaps and diversity among potential win–win solutions for conservation and human infectious disease control

Author

Hopkins, Skylar R, Lafferty, Kevin D, Wood, Chelsea L, Olson, Sarah H, Buck, Julia C, De Leo, Giulio A, Fiorella, Kathryn J, Fornberg, Johanna L, Garchitorena, Andres, Jones, Isabel J, Kuris, Armand M, Kwong, Laura H, LeBoa, Christopher, Leon, Ariel E, Lund, Andrea J, MacDonald, Andrew J, Metz, Daniel C G, Nova, Nicole, Peel, Alison J, Remais, Justin V, Stewart Merrill, Tara E, Wilson, Maya, Bonds, Matthew H, Dobson, Andrew P, Lopez Carr, David, Howard, Meghan E, Mandle, Lisa, and Sokolow, Susanne H

Published
2022
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17. Extreme Competence: Keystone Hosts of Infections

Author

Martin, Lynn B., Addison, BriAnne, Bean, Andrew G.D., Buchanan, Katherine L., Crino, Ondi L., Eastwood, Justin R., Flies, Andrew S., Hamede, Rodrigo, Hill, Geoffrey E., Klaassen, Marcel, Koch, Rebecca E., Martens, Johanne M., Napolitano, Constanza, Narayan, Edward J., Peacock, Lee, Peel, Alison J., Peters, Anne, Raven, Nynke, Risely, Alice, Roast, Michael J., Rollins, Lee A., Ruiz-Aravena, Manuel, Selechnik, Dan, Stokes, Helena S., Ujvari, Beata, and Grogan, Laura F.

Published
2019
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19. The epidemiology of Lagos bat virus and henipaviruses in straw-coloured fruit bats (Eidolon helvum), using population genetics to infer population connectivity

Author

Peel, Alison Jane

Subjects
636.089
Abstract

The straw-coloured fruit bat, Eidolon helvum, has been identified as a reservoir for potentially-zoonotic henipaviruses and Lagos bat virus (LBV) in continental Africa. Longitudinal studies at a large urban colony in Accra, Ghana aim to better understand E. helvum and viral ecology, as well as the nature of human-bat interactions. To assess whether the findings from these studies can be extrapolated across the species’ continental range, more information on the movement ecology of the species and connectivity of populations across its range was required. A multifaceted approach, using techniques from the field of genetics, population ecology, and virology, was used to understand the ways in which the structure and dynamics of fruit bat populations across Africa may affect the viral transmission dynamics within them. Given recent difficulties in using electronic positioning systems on E. helvum to track movement, genetic methods were proposed as the most appropriate way to assess connectivity between populations across such a vast range. Henipavirus and LBV serological analyses were undertaken on samples from 12 populations of E. helvum bats across its continental and offshore-island range. A combination of mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite markers were used to describe the genetic metapopulation structure of E. helvum and data were obtained in each location on population sizes, demographic structure, reproductive and migratory seasonality, as well as bat-human interactions. Consistent with expectations for a vagile migratory species, a panmictic continental population structure was detected across its continental range, although the extent of this panmixia was greater than previously detected in any other mammal or bird. Antibodies to henipaviruses and LBV were detected in all continental populations. Isolated island populations in the Gulf of Guinea were genetically distinct from each other and the continental population. Given the isolation of these island fruit bats and the lack of connectivity with other populations, it was expected that populations would be too small to allow persistence of any viruses that cause acute, immunising infections. Contrary to expectations, island individuals displayed evidence for exposure to both viruses. E. helvum is known to roost close in proximity to human populations across continental Africa, and these results could therefore have important public health implications. Further longitudinal studies across multiple locations and information on social structure, daily and seasonal movements are needed to make inferences about virus transmission dynamics and zoonotic risks within the complex population structure.

Published
2012
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21. Author Correction: Ecology, evolution and spillover of coronaviruses from bats

Author

Ruiz-Aravena, Manuel, McKee, Clifton, Gamble, Amandine, Lunn, Tamika, Morris, Aaron, Snedden, Celine E., Yinda, Claude Kwe, Port, Julia R., Buchholz, David W., Yeo, Yao Yu, Faust, Christina, Jax, Elinor, Dee, Lauren, Jones, Devin N., Kessler, Maureen K., Falvo, Caylee, Crowley, Daniel, Bharti, Nita, Brook, Cara E., Aguilar, Hector C., Peel, Alison J., Restif, Olivier, Schountz, Tony, Parrish, Colin R., Gurley, Emily S., Lloyd-Smith, James O., Hudson, Peter J., Munster, Vincent J., and Plowright, Raina K.

Published
2022
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24. Statement in Support of: “Virology under the Microscope—a Call for Rational Discourse”

Author

Speck, Peter, primary, Mackenzie, Jason, additional, Bull, Rowena A., additional, Slobedman, Barry, additional, Drummer, Heidi, additional, Fraser, Johanna, additional, Herrero, Lara, additional, Helbig, Karla, additional, Londrigan, Sarah, additional, Moseley, Gregory, additional, Prow, Natalie, additional, Hansman, Grant, additional, Edwards, Robert, additional, Ahlenstiel, Chantelle, additional, Abendroth, Allison, additional, Tscharke, David, additional, Hobson-Peters, Jody, additional, Kriiger-Loterio, Robson, additional, Parry, Rhys, additional, Marsh, Glenn, additional, Harding, Emma, additional, Jacques, David A., additional, Gartner, Matthew J., additional, Lee, Wen Shi, additional, McAuley, Julie, additional, Vaz, Paola, additional, Sainsbury, Frank, additional, Tate, Michelle D., additional, Sinclair, Jane, additional, Imrie, Allison, additional, Rawlinson, Stephen, additional, Harman, Andrew, additional, Carr, Jillian M., additional, Monson, Ebony A., additional, Hibma, Merilyn, additional, Mahony, Timothy J., additional, Tu, Thomas, additional, Center, Robert J., additional, Shrestha, Lok Bahadur, additional, Hall, Robyn, additional, Warner, Morgyn, additional, Ward, Vernon, additional, Anderson, Danielle E., additional, Eyre, Nicholas S., additional, Netzler, Natalie E., additional, Peel, Alison J., additional, Revill, Peter, additional, Beard, Michael, additional, Legione, Alistair R., additional, Spencer, Alexandra J., additional, Idris, Adi, additional, Forwood, Jade, additional, Sarker, Subir, additional, Purcell, Damian F. J., additional, Bartlett, Nathan, additional, Deerain, Joshua M., additional, Brew, Bruce J., additional, Asgari, Sassan, additional, Farrell, Helen, additional, Khromykh, Alexander, additional, Enosi Tuipulotu, Daniel, additional, Anderson, David, additional, Mese, Sevim, additional, Tayyar, Yaman, additional, Edenborough, Kathryn, additional, Uddin, Jasim Muhammad, additional, Hussain, Abrar, additional, Daymond, Connor J. I., additional, Agius, Jacinta, additional, Johnson, Karyn N., additional, Shirmast, Paniz, additional, Abedinzadeshahri, Mahdi, additional, MacDiarmid, Robin, additional, Ashley, Caroline L., additional, Laws, Jay, additional, Furfaro, Lucy L., additional, Burton, Thomas D., additional, Johnson, Stephen M. R., additional, Telikani, Zahra, additional, Petrone, Mary, additional, Roby, Justin A., additional, Samer, Carolyn, additional, Suhrbier, Andreas, additional, Van Der Kamp, April, additional, Cunningham, Anthony, additional, Donato, Celeste, additional, Mahar, Jackie, additional, Black, Wesley D., additional, Vasudevan, Subhash, additional, Lenchine, Roman, additional, Spann, Kirsten, additional, Rawle, Daniel J., additional, Rudd, Penny, additional, Neil, Jessica, additional, Kingston, Richard, additional, Newsome, Timothy P., additional, Kim, Ki Wook, additional, Mak, Johnson, additional, Lowry, Kym, additional, Bryant, Nathan, additional, Meers, Joanne, additional, Roberts, Jason A., additional, McMillan, Nigel, additional, Labzin, Larisa I., additional, Slonchak, Andrii, additional, Hugo, Leon E., additional, Henzeler, Bennett, additional, Newton, Natalee D., additional, David, Cassandra T., additional, Reading, Patrick C., additional, Esneau, Camille, additional, Briody, Tatiana, additional, Nasr, Najla, additional, McNeale, Donna, additional, McSharry, Brian, additional, Fakhri, Omid, additional, Horsburgh, Bethany A., additional, Logan, Grant, additional, Howley, Paul, additional, and Young, Paul, additional

Published
2023
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27. Governance principles for the wildlife trade to reduce spillover and pandemic risk

Author

Biggs, Duan, Peel, Alison J., Astaras, Christos, Braczkowski, Alexander, Cheung, Hubert, Choi, Chi-Yeung, Orume, Robinson Diotoh, Cáceres-Escobar, Hernán, Phelps, Jacob, Plowright, Raina K., Rooyen, Jacques, Velden, Julia, McCallum, Hamish, Biggs, Duan, Peel, Alison J., Astaras, Christos, Braczkowski, Alexander, Cheung, Hubert, Choi, Chi-Yeung, Orume, Robinson Diotoh, Cáceres-Escobar, Hernán, Phelps, Jacob, Plowright, Raina K., Rooyen, Jacques, Velden, Julia, and McCallum, Hamish

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath are the most significant socio-economic crises in modern history. The pandemic’s devastating impacts have prompted urgent policy and regulatory action to reduce the risks of future spillover events and pandemics. Stronger regulatory measures for the trade of wildlife are central to discussions of a policy response. A variety of measures, including broad bans on the trade and sale of wildlife to banning specific species for human consumption are among a suite of discussed options. However, the wildlife trade is diverse, complex, and important for the livelihoods of millions of people globally. We argue that reducing the risk of future pandemics stemming from the wildlife trade must follow established principles of governance which include being equitable, responsive, robust, and effective. We demonstrate how incorporating these principles will support the development of context-specific, culturally sensitive, and inclusive responses that recognize the on-the-ground complexity of disease emergence and the social-ecological systems in which the wildlife trade occurs.

Published
2023

29. Governance principles for the wildlife trade to reduce spillover and pandemic risk

Author

Biggs, Duan, primary, Peel, Alison J., additional, Astaras, Christos, additional, Braczkowski, Alexander, additional, Cheung, Hubert, additional, Choi, Chi-Yeung, additional, Orume, Robinson Diotoh, additional, Cáceres-Escobar, Hernán, additional, Phelps, Jacob, additional, Plowright, Raina K., additional, Rooyen, Jacques, additional, Velden, Julia, additional, and McCallum, Hamish, additional

Published
2023
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32. Novel variant Hendra virus genotype 2 infection in a horse in the greater Newcastle region, New South Wales, Australia

Author

Taylor, Joanne, primary, Thompson, Kirrilly, additional, Annand, Edward J., additional, Massey, Peter D., additional, Bennett, Jane, additional, Eden, John-Sebastian, additional, Horsburgh, Bethany A., additional, Hodgson, Evelyn, additional, Wood, Kelly, additional, Kerr, James, additional, Kirkland, Peter, additional, Finlaison, Deborah, additional, Peel, Alison J., additional, Eby, Peggy, additional, and Durrheim, David N., additional

Published
2022
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35. Land use, season, and parasitism predict metal concentrations in Australian flying fox fur

Author

Sánchez, Cecilia A., primary, Penrose, Michael T., additional, Kessler, Maureen K., additional, Becker, Daniel J., additional, McKeown, Adam, additional, Hannappel, Madeline, additional, Boyd, Victoria, additional, Camus, Melinda S., additional, Padgett-Stewart, Ticha, additional, Hunt, Brooklin E., additional, Graves, Amelia F., additional, Peel, Alison J., additional, Westcott, David A., additional, Rainwater, Thomas R., additional, Chumchal, Matthew M., additional, Cobb, George P., additional, Altizer, Sonia, additional, Plowright, Raina K., additional, and Boardman, Wayne S.J., additional

Published
2022
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41. Serological evidence of a pararubulavirus and a betacoronavirus in the geographically isolated Christmas Island flying‐fox ( Pteropus natalis )

Author

Pulscher, Laura A., primary, Peel, Alison J., additional, Rose, Karrie, additional, Welbergen, Justin A., additional, Baker, Michelle L., additional, Boyd, Victoria, additional, Low‐Choy, Samantha, additional, Edson, Dan, additional, Todd, Christopher, additional, Dorrestein, Annabel, additional, Hall, Jane, additional, Todd, Shawn, additional, Broder, Christopher C., additional, Yan, Lianying, additional, Xu, Kai, additional, Peck, Grantley R., additional, and Phalen, David N., additional

Published
2022
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42. Estimating viral prevalence with data fusion for adaptive two-phase pooled sampling

Author

Hoegh, Andrew, Peel, Alison J, Madden, Wyatt, Ruiz Aravena, Manuel, Morris, Aaron, Washburne, Alex, Plowright, Raina K, Hoegh, Andrew [0000-0003-1176-4965], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository

Subjects
adaptive sampling, ORIGINAL RESEARCH, Bayesian statistics, group testing
Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of efficient sampling strategies and statistical methods for monitoring infection prevalence, both in humans and in reservoir hosts. Pooled testing can be an efficient tool for learning pathogen prevalence in a population. Typically, pooled testing requires a second-phase retesting procedure to identify infected individuals, but when the goal is solely to learn prevalence in a population, such as a reservoir host, there are more efficient methods for allocating the second-phase samples.To estimate pathogen prevalence in a population, this manuscript presents an approach for data fusion with two-phased testing of pooled samples that allows more efficient estimation of prevalence with less samples than traditional methods. The first phase uses pooled samples to estimate the population prevalence and inform efficient strategies for the second phase. To combine information from both phases, we introduce a Bayesian data fusion procedure that combines pooled samples with individual samples for joint inferences about the population prevalence.Data fusion procedures result in more efficient estimation of prevalence than traditional procedures that only use individual samples or a single phase of pooled sampling.The manuscript presents guidance on implementing the first-phase and second-phase sampling plans using data fusion. Such methods can be used to assess the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir hosts to humans, or to track pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 in populations.

Published
2022
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44. Governance Principles for the Wildlife Trade to Reduce Spillover and Pandemic Risk

Author

Biggs, Duan, primary, Peel, Alison J., additional, Astaras, Christos, additional, Braczkowski, Alexander, additional, Cheung, Hubert, additional, Choi, Chi-Yeung, additional, Orume, Robinson Diotoh, additional, Cáceres-Escobar, Hernán, additional, Phelps, Jacob, additional, Plowright, Raina K., additional, Van Rooyen, Jacques, additional, van Velden, Julia, additional, and McCallum, Hamish, additional

Published
2022
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46. Bat flight and zoonotic viruses

Author

O'Shea, Thomas J., Cryan, Paul M., Cunningham, Andrew A., Fooks, Anthony R., Hayman, David T.S., Luis, Angela D., Peel, Alison J., Plowright, Raina K., and Wood, James L.N.

Subjects
Bats -- Research -- Health aspects, Zoonoses -- Causes of, Virus diseases -- Research, Health
Abstract

Bats are a major source of zoonotic viruses worldwide (1-3). Molecular studies have demonstrated that bats are natural host reservoirs for several recently emerged high-profile zoonotic viruses, including sudden acute [...]

Published
2014
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47. Ecological conditions predict the intensity of Hendra virus excretion over space and time from bat reservoir hosts.

Author

Becker, Daniel J., Eby, Peggy, Madden, Wyatt, Peel, Alison J., Plowright, Raina K., and Ostfeld, Richard

Subjects
BAT ecology, RESERVOIR ecology, EXCRETION, FOOD shortages, BATS, HABITATS, HENDRA virus
Abstract

The ecological conditions experienced by wildlife reservoirs affect infection dynamics and thus the distribution of pathogen excreted into the environment. This spatial and temporal distribution of shed pathogen has been hypothesised to shape risks of zoonotic spillover. However, few systems have data on both long‐term ecological conditions and pathogen excretion to advance mechanistic understanding and test environmental drivers of spillover risk. We here analyse three years of Hendra virus data from nine Australian flying fox roosts with covariates derived from long‐term studies of bat ecology. We show that the magnitude of winter pulses of viral excretion, previously considered idiosyncratic, are most pronounced after recent food shortages and in bat populations displaced to novel habitats. We further show that cumulative pathogen excretion over time is shaped by bat ecology and positively predicts spillover frequency. Our work emphasises the role of reservoir host ecology in shaping pathogen excretion and provides a new approach to estimate spillover risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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48. Ecology, evolution and spillover of coronaviruses from bats

Author

Ruiz-Aravena, Manuel, primary, McKee, Clifton, additional, Gamble, Amandine, additional, Lunn, Tamika, additional, Morris, Aaron, additional, Snedden, Celine E., additional, Yinda, Claude Kwe, additional, Port, Julia R., additional, Buchholz, David W., additional, Yeo, Yao Yu, additional, Faust, Christina, additional, Jax, Elinor, additional, Dee, Lauren, additional, Jones, Devin N., additional, Kessler, Maureen K., additional, Falvo, Caylee, additional, Crowley, Daniel, additional, Bharti, Nita, additional, Brook, Cara E., additional, Aguilar, Hector C., additional, Peel, Alison J., additional, Restif, Olivier, additional, Schountz, Tony, additional, Parrish, Colin R., additional, Gurley, Emily S., additional, Lloyd-Smith, James O., additional, Hudson, Peter J., additional, Munster, Vincent J., additional, and Plowright, Raina K., additional

Published
2021
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