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The Mexican economy experienced two large crises: in 1995 and in 2008. The dynamics and origins of the episodes are very different; nevertheless, is there a common underlying mechanism? First, by applying the Business Cycle Accounting method, we find that the efficiency wedge is the main driver of output during both episodes. We present an equivalence between the neoclassical growth model with distortions and a small open economy with imported intermediate goods inputs, in which relative price changes manifest themselves as changes on the efficiency wedge. This result proposes a solution for the theoretical puzzle regarding the relationship between terms of trade shocks and productivity. Finally, the model is able to reproduce both the intensities and velocities of the crises in Mexico.

Following the Great Recession, many European countries implemented fiscal consolidation policies aimed at reducing government debt. Using three independent data sources and three different empirical approaches, we document a strong positive relationship between higher income inequality and stronger recessive impacts of fiscal consolidation programs across time and place. To explain this finding, we develop a life-cycle, overlapping generations economy with uninsurable labour market risk. We calibrate our model to match key characteristics of a number of European economies, including the distribution of wages and wealth, social security, taxes and debt, and study the effects of fiscal consolidation programs. We find that higher income risk induces precautionary savings behaviour, which decreases the proportion of credit-constrained agents in the economy. Credit-constrained agents have less elastic labour supply responses to fiscal consolidation achieved through either tax hikes or public spending cuts, and this explains the relationship between income inequality and the impact of fiscal consolidation programs. Our model produces a cross-country correlation between inequality and the fiscal consolidation multipliers, which is quite similar to that in the data.

Policy makers concerned with setting optimal values for carbon instruments to address climate change externalities often employ integrated assessment models (IAMs). In the past, these tools have relied on representative agent assumptions or other restrictive behaviour and welfare aggregations. However, there is an important trend in the economics of climate change towards including a greater degree of heterogeneity. In the face of global inequality and significant vulnerability of asset poor households, we relax the complete markets assumption and introduce a realistic degree of global household inequality. In contrast to the representative agent framework, we find that a household's position on the global wealth distribution predicts the identity of their most-preferred carbon price. Specifically, poor agents prefer strong public action against climate change to mitigate the risk for which they are implicitly more vulnerable. We find that the carbon tax fills the role of insurance, reducing the volatility of future welfare. It is this role that drives the wedge between rich and poor households’ policy preferences, even in the absence of redistribution. Taking into account the risk channel, we derive an optimal tax value four times larger than standard estimates from representative agent models.

We measure labor demand and supply shocks at the sector level around the COVID-19 outbreak by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on monthly statistics of hours worked and real wages. Most sectors were subject to large negative labor supply and demand shocks in March and April 2020, with substantial heterogeneity in the size of shocks across sectors. Our estimates suggest that two-thirds of the drop in the aggregate growth rate of hours in March and April 2020 are attributable to labor supply. We validate our estimates of supply shocks by showing that they are correlated with sectoral measures of telework.

We measure labor demand and supply shocks at the sector level around the COVID-19 outbreak by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on monthly statistics of hours worked and real wages. Most sectors were subject to large negative labor supply and demand shocks in March and April 2020, with substantial heterogeneity in the size of shocks across sectors. Our estimates suggest that two-thirds of the drop in the aggregate growth rate of hours in March and April 2020 are attributable to labor supply. We validate our estimates of supply shocks by showing that they are correlated with sectoral measures of telework.

We argue that the fiscal multiplier of government purchases is increasing in the spending shock, in contrast to what is assumed in most of the literature. The fiscal multiplier is largest for large positive government spending shocks and smallest for large contractions in government spending. We empirically document this fact using aggregate U.S. data. We find that a neoclassical, life-cycle, incomplete markets model calibrated to match key features of the US economy can explain this empirical finding. The mechanism hinges on the relationship between fiscal shocks, their form of financing, and the response of labor supply across the wealth distribution. The model predicts that the aggregate labor supply elasticity is increasing in the size of the fiscal shock, and this holds regardless of whether shocks are deficit- or balanced-budget financed (albeit through different mechanisms). We find evidence of our mechanism in micro data for the US.

This paper investigates the properties of distortions that manifest themselves as wedges in the equilibrium conditions of the neoclassical growth model across a sample of 22 OECD countries for the 1970–2011 period. The quantitative relevance of each wedge and its robustness in generating fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates is assessed. The efficiency wedge proves to be determinant in enabling models to replicate movements in output and investment, while the labor wedge is important to predict fluctuations in hours worked. Modeling distortions to the savings decision holds little quantitative or qualitative relevance. Also, investment seems to be the hardest aggregate to replicate, as prediction errors concerning output and hours worked are typically one order of magnitude smaller. These conclusions are statistically significant across the countries in the sample and are not limited to output drops. Finally, the geographical distance between countries and their degree of openness to trade are shown to contain information with regard to the wedges, stressing the importance of international mechanisms of transmission between distortions to the equilibrium conditions of the neoclassical growth model.

For most academics and policy makers, the depth of the 2008–09 financial crisis, its longevity and its impacts on the real economy resulted from an erosion of confidence. This paper proposes to assess empirically the link between consumer sentiment and consumption expenditures for the United States and the euro area. It shows under which circumstances confidence indicators can be a good predictor of household consumption even after controlling for information in economic fundamentals. Overall, the results show that, the consumer confidence index can be in certain circumstances a good predictor of consumption. In particular, out-of-sample evidence shows that the contribution of confidence in explaining consumption expenditures increases when household survey indicators feature large changes, so that confidence indicators can have some increasing predictive power during such episodes. Moreover, there is some evidence of a “confidence channel” in the international transmission of shocks, as U.S. confidence indices help predicting consumer sentiment in the euro area.

This study aims to evaluate compliance of HIV patients to TB screening and treatment, identifying determinants for non-compliance.We reviewed clinical records of all HIV infected patients first attended in a Portuguese-Infectious-Unit from 2007 to 2010 (152 patients). Screening included: symptom inquiry, chest X-ray, TST/IGRA. In 2008 a protocol was established with a TB outpatient clinic allowing patients to choose where to perform screening (decentralization).All patients were offered screening; 69 (45.4%) accepted. Before decentralization, out of 78 patients, 20 (25%) accepted screening. After decentralization, out of 64 patients, 49 (76.6%) accepted screening. Decentralization was associated with higher levels of acceptance (p

We elaborate on the business cycle accounting method proposed by Chari et al. (2006) , clear up some misconceptions about the method, and then apply it to compare the Great Recession across OECD countries as well as to the recessions of the 1980s in these countries. We have four main findings. First, with the notable exception of the United States, Spain, Ireland, and Iceland, the Great Recession was driven primarily by the efficiency wedge. Second, in the Great Recession, the labor wedge plays a dominant role only in the United States, and the investment wedge plays a dominant role in Spain, Ireland, and Iceland. Third, in the recessions of the 1980s, the labor wedge played a dominant role only in France, the United Kingdom, and Belgium. Finally, overall in the Great Recession, the efficiency wedge played a more important role and the investment wedge played a less important role than they did in the recessions of the 1980s.

The recent experience of a Great Recession has brought the effectiveness of fiscal policy back into focus. Fiscal multipliers do, however, vary greatly over time and place. Running VARs for a large number of countries, we document a strong correlation between wealth inequality and the magnitude of fiscal multipliers. To explain this finding, we develop a life-cycle, overlapping generations economy with uninsurable labor market risk. We calibrate our model to match key characteristics of a number of OECD economies, including the distribution of wages and wealth, social security, taxes and debt and study the effects of changing policies and various forms of inequality on the fiscal multiplier. We find that the fiscal multiplier is highly sensitive to the fraction of the population who face binding credit constraints and also negatively related to the average wealth level in the economy. This explains the correlation between wealth inequality and fiscal multipliers.

The recent experience of a Great Recession has brought the effectiveness of fiscal policy back into focus. Fiscal multipliers do, however, vary greatly over time and place. between wealth inequality and the magnitude of fiscal multipliers. To explain this finding, we develop a life-cycle, overlapping generations economy with uninsurable labor market risk. We calibrate our model to match key characteristics of a number of OECD economies, including the distribution of wages and wealth, social security, taxes and debt and study the effects of changing policies and various forms of inequality on the fiscal multiplier. We find that the fiscal multiplier is highly sensitive to the fraction of the population who face binding credit constraints and also negatively related to the average wealth level in the economy. This explains the correlation between wealth inequality and fiscal multipliers.

When creating competing models of economic fluctuations, researchers typically introduce frictions in their models aiming at replicating the observed movements in the data. This paper implements a ...

Introduction Benzodiazepines, sedative hypnotic drugs, are indiscriminately used in patients with insomnia, independently of the OSA exclusion. It’s well known these drugs may adversely affect the control of ventilation during sleep, leading to a worsening of various respiratory parameters, including peripheral O2 saturation. To evaluate the impact of use of benzodiazepines in AHI and O2 peripheral saturation on OSA patients. Materials and methods Methodology: We retrospectively analyzed 515 patients diagnosed in our Sleep Medicine Centre with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSA) and collected polysomnography, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric data as well as Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) value, and use of benzodiazepines (BZD) at diagnosis. Comparisons interesting the AHI and minSO2 and the presence of benzodiazepines were made. Results A total of 515 patients with OSA were included and had mean age of 52.6 ± 13.4 years, 67% men and a mean BMI of 28.8 ± 4.8 kg/m2. Of the 515 OSA patients, 39% had mild, 29% moderate and 32% severe OSA. Benzodiazepines were used by 26.6% (137) patients. Of these 137 patients, 55 had mild, 36 moderate and 46 severe OSA. In our population, AHI was associated with male gender, greater BMI and ESS value, but not with BZD use. The minSO2 was negatively correlated with AHI (p 0.05) and associated with the use of BZD (p 0.05). However, the relation between minSO2 and BZD use was observed only in those with mild and moderate OSA (p 0.05) and not in severe OSA. Conclusion These results show that the use of benzodiazepines is associated with a lower minSO2 during sleep among OSA patients, but the weight of these drugs effect is diluted with the severity index, which can be explain by the gain of impact of a higher number of apneas/hyponeas. This emphasize the importance of have caution with benzodiazepine prescription as they can increase the effects of other diseases in particular sleep disorders breathing. Acknowledgement We thank to Ricardo Reis who helps analysing the data.

Background Prevalence of allergic disease has increased in recent years all over the world. Asthma and rhinitis are the most prevalent in Portugal and, having them such a multi-factorial basis, atopy is the most important risk factor for its development. The authors aim to evaluate mono/polisensitization as risk factors for severity of allergic disease, if there is an impact in allergic disease manifestations number, the different treatment response, and if there is a relationship between VEMs, comorbilities and sensitization. Methods In a population of patients followed in asthma/allergology appointment were selected those with asthma and allergic rhinitis confirmed by cutaneous test and/or specific IgE. Clinical processes were reviewed and analyzed data related to the age of beginning, manifestations, atopic profile, severity, treatment, comorbilities and functional limitation. A descriptive analysis of the sample was made and used linear regression for variable correlations. Results 176 patients 30% men and 70% women, mean age 33,7 and mean age of early symptoms 12,7 Of these, 94% had asthma and 85% rhinitis. They were 53% monosensitized, 47% polisensisitized and 43% had comorbilities. 66,5% of patients has done specific immunotherapy (SIT). On linear regression analysis it was found that different sensitization has not been determinative for disease manifestations number neither of treatment response. It was observed that severity of asthma and rhinitis correlate with each other (P < 0,001), but no significant differences were verified in severity level between patients mono vs polisensitized. SIT demonstrate a positive and statistically significant correlation with treatment reduction (P < 0,001) and reduction on asthma and rhinitis severity (P = 0,015 and P < 0,001). SIT patients also demonstrate a decrease in asthma severity associated to the number of allergen sensitizations. It was found a positive correlation between the presence and number of comorbilities and asthma and rhinitis severity (P = 0,001/P < 0,001 and P = 0,007/P = 0,001), instead of individually, only nasal polyposis prove to be associated with statistical significance. Comorbilities were also related with a lower FEV1 (P = 0,02). Conclusions This study supports literature data, which says there is only one allergic disease and that severity of disease extends to its various manifestations. We confirmed that in atopic patients, SIT has benefit in the reduction on allergic disease severity and a better disease control with minor therapeutic use.

Resumo: Este estudo teve por objetivo avaliar a adesão dos doentes VIH ao rastreio e tratamento da TB, identificando fatores determinantes para a não adesão.Foram revistos os registos clínicos de todos os doentes infetados pelo VIH, observados pela primeira vez numa Unidade de Doenças Infeciosas Portuguesa entre 2007 e 2010 (152 doentes). O rastreio incluía: inquérito de sintomas, telerradiografia torácica e TST/IGRA. Em 2008, foi estabelecido um protocolo com um Centro Diagnóstico Pneumológico, que permitia aos doentes escolher o local para serem rastreados (descentralização).O rastreio foi oferecido a todos os doentes, 69 (45,4%) aceitaram. Antes da implementação do protocolo de descentralização, de 78 doentes, 20 (25%) aceitaram ser rastreados. Após a descentralização, de 64, 49 doentes (76,6%) aderiram ao rastreio. A descentralização dos cuidados de saúde mostrou estar associada a uma maior adesão ao rastreio (pÂ

Since its introduction by Chari et al. (2007), Business Cycle Accounting (BCA) exercises have become widespread. Much attention has been devoted to the results of such exercises and to methodological departures from the baseline methodology. Little attention has been paid to identification issues within these classes of models.In this paper we investigate whether such issues are of concern in the original methodology and in an extension proposed by Sustek (2011) called Monetary BCA. ˇ We resort to two types of identification tests in population. One concerns strict identification as theorized by Komunjer and Ng (2011) while the other deals both with strict and weak identification as in Iskrev (2015). Most importantly, we explore the extent to which these weak identification problems affect the main economic takeaways and find that the identification deficiencies are not relevant for the standard BCA model. Finally, we compute some statistics of interest to practitioners of the BCA methodology. publishersversion published

We show that the labor share of income is an important factor affecting the mechanisms behind fiscal consolidation programs, thus requiring consideration when evaluating fiscal multipliers across countries. We calibrate a life-cycle, overlapping generations model to match key characteristics of different European economies and evaluate the recessive impacts of fiscal consolidation programs. We find a positive relationship between the labor share and the impact fiscal multipliers generated by our model. This result directly follows from the higher weight of labor on production and the lower opportunity cost of leisure present in economies with a higher labor share. Following the impact period, the relationship between the labor share and the fiscal multipliers is dependent on the type of fiscal instrument employed in the consolidation. publishersversion published