Search

Effective population size ( Ne ) is one of the most important parameters in evolutionary biology, as it is linked to the long-term survival capability of species. Therefore, Ne greatly interests conservation geneticists, but it is also very relevant to policymakers, managers, and conservation practitioners. Molecular methods to estimate Ne rely on various assumptions, including no immigration, panmixia, random sampling, absence of spatial genetic structure, and/or mutation-drift equilibrium. Species are, however, often characterized by fragmented populations under changing environmental conditions and anthropogenic pressure. Therefore, the estimation methods' assumptions are seldom addressed and rarely met, possibly leading to biased and inaccurate Ne estimates. To address the challenges associated with estimating Ne for conservation purposes, the COST Action 18134, Genomic Biodiversity Knowledge for Resilient Ecosystems (G-BiKE), organized an international workshop that met in August 2022 in Brașov, Romania. The overarching goal was to operationalize the current knowledge of Ne estimation methods for conservation practitioners and decision-makers. We set out to identify datasets to evaluate the sensitivity of Ne estimation methods to violations of underlying assumptions and to develop data analysis strategies that addressed pressing issues in biodiversity monitoring and conservation. Referring to a comprehensive body of scientific work on Ne , this meeting report is not intended to be exhaustive but rather to present approaches, workshop findings, and a collection of papers that serve as fruits of those efforts. We aimed to provide insights and opportunities to help bridge the gap between scientific research and conservation practice., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Joachim Mergeay, Roberta Gargiulo, and Isa‐Rita M. Russo are editorial board members of Evolutionary Applications and co‐authors of this article. To minimize bias, they were excluded from all editorial decision‐making related to this article., (© 2024 The Author(s). Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Although the 16S rRNA gene is frequently used as a phylogenetic marker in analysis of environmental DNA, this marker often fails to distinguish closely related species, including those in the genus Vibrio. Here, we investigate whether inclusion and analysis of 23S rRNA sequence can help overcome the intrinsic weaknesses of 16S rRNA analyses for the differentiation of Vibrio species. We construct a maximum likelihood 16S rRNA gene tree to assess the use of this gene to identify clades of Vibrio species. Within the 16S rRNA tree, we identify the putative informative bases responsible for polyphyly, and demonstrate the association of these positions with tree topology. We demonstrate that concatenation of 16S and 23S rRNA genes increases the number of informative nucleotide positions, thereby overcoming ambiguities in 16S rRNA-based phylogenetic reconstructions. Finally, we experimentally demonstrate that this approach considerably improves the differentiation and identification of Vibrio species in environmental samples., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Genetic monitoring of populations currently attracts interest in the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity but needs long-term planning and investments. However, genetic diversity has been largely neglected in biodiversity monitoring, and when addressed, it is treated separately, detached from other conservation issues, such as habitat alteration due to climate change. We report an accounting of efforts to monitor population genetic diversity in Europe (genetic monitoring effort, GME), the evaluation of which can help guide future capacity building and collaboration towards areas most in need of expanded monitoring. Overlaying GME with areas where the ranges of selected species of conservation interest approach current and future climate niche limits helps identify whether GME coincides with anticipated climate change effects on biodiversity. Our analysis suggests that country area, financial resources and conservation policy influence GME, high values of which only partially match species' joint patterns of limits to suitable climatic conditions. Populations at trailing climatic niche margins probably hold genetic diversity that is important for adaptation to changing climate. Our results illuminate the need in Europe for expanded investment in genetic monitoring across climate gradients occupied by focal species, a need arguably greatest in southeastern European countries. This need could be met in part by expanding the European Union's Birds and Habitats Directives to fully address the conservation and monitoring of genetic diversity., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

COVID-19 lockdown measures have impacted the environment with both positive and negative effects. However, how human populations have perceived such changes in the natural environment and how they may have changed their daily habits have not been yet thoroughly evaluated. The objectives of this work were to investigate (1) the social perception of the environmental changes produced by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown and the derived change in habits in relation to i) waste management, energy saving, and sustainable consumption, ii) mobility, iii) social inequalities, iv) generation of noise, v) utilization of natural spaces, and, vi) human population perception towards the future, and (2) the associations of these potential new habits with various socio-demographic variables. First, a SWOT analysis identified strengths (S), weaknesses (W), opportunities (O), and threats (T) generated by the pandemic lockdown measures. Second, a survey based on the aspects of the SWOT was administered among 2370 adults from 37 countries during the period from February to September 2021. We found that the short-term positive impacts on the natural environment were generally well recognized. In contrast, longer-term negative effects arise, but they were often not reported by the survey participants, such as greater production of plastic waste derived from health safety measures, and the increase in e-commerce use, which can displace small storefront businesses. We were able to capture a mismatch between perceptions and the reported data related to visits to natural areas, and generation of waste. We found that age and country of residence were major contributors in shaping the survey participants ´answers, which highlights the importance of government management strategies to address current and future environmental problems. Enhanced positive perceptions of the environment and ecosystems, combined with the understanding that livelihood sustainability, needs to be prioritized and would reinforce environmental protection policies to create greener cities. Moreover, new sustainable jobs in combination with more sustainable human habits represent an opportunity to reinforce environmental policy., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Vibrio harveyi is a Gram-negative pathogenic bacterium ubiquitously present in natural aquatic systems. Although environmental adaptability in V. harveyi may be enabled by profound reprogramming of gene expression previously observed during responses to starvation, suboptimal temperatures and other stress factors, the key characteristics of V. harveyi transcripts and operons, such as their boundaries and size as well as location of small RNA genes, remain largely unknown. To reveal the main features of the V. harveyi transcriptome, total RNA of this organism was analyzed by differential RNA sequencing (dRNA-seq). Analysis of the dRNA-seq data made it possible to define the primary transcriptome of V. harveyi along with cis-acting regulatory elements (riboswitches and leader sequences) and new genes. The latter encode a number of putative polypeptides and new phylogenetically conserved antisense RNAs potentially involved in the post-transcriptional control of gene expression., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

We quantified the degree to which the relationship between the geographic distribution of three major European tree species, Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies and January temperature (Tjan) has remained stable over the past 10,000 years. We used an extended data-set of fossil pollen records over Europe to reconstruct spatial variation in Tjan values for each 1000-year time slice between 10,000 and 3000 years BP (before present). We evaluated the relationships between the occurrences of the three species at each time slice and the spatially interpolated Tjan values, and compared these to their modern temperature ranges. Our results reveal that F. sylvatica and P. abies experienced Tjan ranges during the Holocene that differ from those of the present, while A. alba occurred over a Tjan range that is comparable to its modern one. Our data suggest the need for re-evaluation of the assumption of stable climate tolerances at a scale of several thousand years. The temperature range instability in our observed data independently validates similar results based exclusively on modeled Holocene temperatures. Our study complements previous studies that used modeled data by identifying variation in frequencies of occurrence of populations within the limits of suitable climate. However, substantial changes that were observed in the realized thermal niches over the Holocene tend to suggest that predicting future species distributions should not solely be based on modern realized niches, and needs to account for the past variation in the climate variables that drive species ranges.

The evolution of organisms is crucially dependent on the evolution of intraspecific variation. Its interactions with selective agents in the biotic and abiotic environments underlie many processes, such as intraspecific competition, resource partitioning and, eventually, species formation. Nevertheless, comparative models of trait evolution neither allow explicit testing of hypotheses related to the evolution of intraspecific variation nor do they simultaneously estimate rates of trait evolution by accounting for both trait mean and variance. Here, we present a model of phenotypic trait evolution using a hierarchical Bayesian approach that simultaneously incorporates interspecific and intraspecific variation. We assume that species-specific trait means evolve under a simple Brownian motion process, whereas species-specific trait variances are modeled with Brownian or Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. After evaluating the power of the method through simulations, we examine whether life-history traits impact evolution of intraspecific variation in the Eriogonoideae (buckwheat family, Polygonaceae). Our model is readily extendible to more complex scenarios of the evolution of inter- and intraspecific variation and presents a step toward more comprehensive comparative models for macroevolutionary studies., (© The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Experimental evidence suggests that reproductive interference between heterospecifics can seriously affect individual fitness; support from field studies for such an effect has, however, remained scarce. We studied reproductive interference in 25 natural breeding ponds in an area where two ranid frogs, Rana dalmatina and Rana temporaria, co-occur. The breeding seasons of the two species usually overlap and males of both species are often found in amplexus with heterospecific females, even though matings between heterospecifics produce no viable offspring. We estimated species abundance ratios based on the number of clutches laid and evaluated fertilization success. In ponds with low spatial complexity and a species abundance ratio biased towards R. temporaria, the average fertilization success of R. dalmatina eggs decreased, while this relationship was not detectable in spatially more complex ponds. Fertilization success of R. temporaria did not decrease with increasing relative numbers of heterospecifics. This asymmetry in fitness effects of reproductive interference may be attributed to R. temporaria males being more competitive in scramble competition for females than R. dalmatina males. Our study is among the first to demonstrate that in natural breeding populations of vertebrates interference among heterospecifics has the potential to substantially lower reproductive success at the population level, which may in turn affect population dynamics.

Understanding the drivers of population divergence, speciation and species persistence is of great interest to molecular ecology, especially for species-rich radiations inhabiting the world's biodiversity hotspots. The toolbox of population genomics holds great promise for addressing these key issues, especially if genomic data are analysed within a spatially and ecologically explicit context. We have studied the earliest stages of the divergence continuum in the Restionaceae, a species-rich and ecologically important plant family of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa, using the widespread CFR endemic Restio capensis (L.) H.P. Linder & C.R. Hardy as an example. We studied diverging populations of this morphotaxon for plastid DNA sequences and >14 400 nuclear DNA polymorphisms from Restriction site Associated DNA (RAD) sequencing and analysed the results jointly with spatial, climatic and phytogeographic data, using a Bayesian generalized linear mixed modelling (GLMM) approach. The results indicate that population divergence across the extreme environmental mosaic of the CFR is mostly driven by isolation by environment (IBE) rather than isolation by distance (IBD) for both neutral and non-neutral markers, consistent with genome hitchhiking or coupling effects during early stages of divergence. Mixed modelling of plastid DNA and single divergent outlier loci from a Bayesian genome scan confirmed the predominant role of climate and pointed to additional drivers of divergence, such as drift and ecological agents of selection captured by phytogeographic zones. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of population genomics for disentangling the effects of IBD and IBE along the divergence continuum often found in species radiations across heterogeneous ecological landscapes., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most striking and consistent biodiversity patterns across taxonomic groups. We investigate the species richness gradient in the buckwheat family, Polygonaceae, which exhibits a reverse LDG and is, thus, decoupled from dominant gradients of energy and environmental stability that increase toward the tropics and confound mechanistic interpretations. We test competing age and evolutionary diversification hypotheses, which may explain the diversification of this plant family over the past 70 million years. Our analyses show that the age hypothesis, which posits that clade richness is positively correlated with the ecological and evolutionary time since clade origin, fails to explain the richness gradient observed in Polygonaceae. However, an evolutionary diversification hypothesis is highly supported, with diversification rates being 3.5 times higher in temperate clades compared to tropical clades. We demonstrate that differences in rates of speciation, migration, and molecular evolution insufficiently explain the observed patterns of differential diversification rates. We suggest that reduced extinction rates in temperate clades may be associated with adaptive responses to selection, through which seed morphology and climatic tolerances potentially act to minimize risk in temporally variable environments. Further study is needed to understand causal pathways among these traits and factors correlated with latitude., (© 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Aim: The origins of ecological diversity in continental species assemblages have long intrigued biogeographers. We apply phylogenetic comparative analyses to disentangle the evolutionary patterns of ecological niches in an assemblage of European birds. We compare phylogenetic patterns in trophic, habitat and climatic niche components., Location: Europe., Methods: From polygon range maps and handbook data we inferred the realized climatic, habitat and trophic niches of 405 species of breeding birds in Europe. We fitted Pagel's lambda and kappa statistics, and conducted analyses of disparity through time to compare temporal patterns of ecological diversification on all niche axes together. All observed patterns were compared with expectations based on neutral (Brownian) models of niche divergence., Results: In this assemblage, patterns of phylogenetic signal (lambda) suggest that related species resemble each other less in regard to their climatic and habitat niches than they do in their trophic niche. Kappa estimates show that ecological divergence does not gradually increase with divergence time, and that this punctualism is stronger in climatic niches than in habitat and trophic niches. Observed niche disparity markedly exceeds levels expected from a Brownian model of ecological diversification, thus providing no evidence for past phylogenetic niche conservatism in these multivariate niches. Levels of multivariate disparity are greatest for the climatic niche, followed by disparity of the habitat and the trophic niches., Main Conclusions: Phylogenetic patterns in the three niche components differ within this avian assemblage. Variation in evolutionary rates (degree of gradualism, constancy through the tree) and/or non-random macroecological sampling probably lead here to differences in the phylogenetic structure of niche components. Testing hypotheses on the origin of these patterns requires more complete phylogenetic trees of the birds, and extended ecological data on different niche components for all bird species.

Although it is generally agreed that the Arctic flora is among the youngest and least diverse on Earth, the processes that shaped it are poorly understood. Here we present 50 thousand years (kyr) of Arctic vegetation history, derived from the first large-scale ancient DNA metabarcoding study of circumpolar plant diversity. For this interval we also explore nematode diversity as a proxy for modelling vegetation cover and soil quality, and diets of herbivorous megafaunal mammals, many of which became extinct around 10 kyr bp (before present). For much of the period investigated, Arctic vegetation consisted of dry steppe-tundra dominated by forbs (non-graminoid herbaceous vascular plants). During the Last Glacial Maximum (25-15 kyr bp), diversity declined markedly, although forbs remained dominant. Much changed after 10 kyr bp, with the appearance of moist tundra dominated by woody plants and graminoids. Our analyses indicate that both graminoids and forbs would have featured in megafaunal diets. As such, our findings question the predominance of a Late Quaternary graminoid-dominated Arctic mammoth steppe.

Fire has been proposed as a factor explaining the exceptional plant species richness found in Mediterranean regions. A fire response trait that allows plants to cope with frequent fire by either reseeding or resprouting could differentially affect rates of species diversification. However, little is known about the generality of the effects of differing fire response on species evolution. We study this question in the Restionaceae, a family that radiated in Southern Africa and Australia. These radiations occurred independently and represent evolutionary replicates. We apply Bayesian approaches to estimate trait-specific diversification rates and patterns of climatic niche evolution. We also compare the climatic heterogeneity of South Africa and Australia. Reseeders diversify faster than resprouters in South Africa, but not in Australia. We show that climatic preferences evolve more rapidly in reseeder lineages than in resprouters and that the optima of these climatic preferences differ between the two strategies. We find that South Africa is more climatically heterogeneous than Australia, independent of the spatial scale we consider. We propose that rapid shifts between states of the fire response trait promote speciation by separating species ecologically, but this only happens when the landscape is sufficiently heterogeneous., (© 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Background: Survival in microrefugia represents an important paradigm in phylogeography for explaining rapid postglacial re-colonization by species in temperate regions. Microrefugia may allow populations to persist in areas where the climatic conditions on the surface have become unfavourable. Caves generally contain stable microclimates and may represent microrefugia for species capable of exploiting both cave and surface habitats (troglophiles). We examine the phylogeography of the troglophilic North American vaejovid scorpion Pseudouroctonus reddelli using 1,993 base pairs of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data generated from 12 populations. We use (i) descriptive measures of genetic diversity and population genetics statistics, (ii) reconstructions of phylogeographical structure, spatial diffusion during diversification, and population sizes through time, and (iii) species distribution modelling to test predictions of the hypothesis that caves serve as microrefugia. We compare phylogeographical patterns in P. reddelli with other troglophilic species across the Edwards Plateau karst region of Texas., Results: Results revealed high haplotype and nucleotide diversity and substantial phylogeographical structure, probably generated during the Pleistocene. Spatial diffusion occurred along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau from multiple refugia along the Balcones Escarpment. There was little evidence for population and geographical expansion. Species distribution models predicted substantial reductions in suitable epigean habitat for P. reddelli at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)., Conclusions: High genetic diversity, strong phylogeographical structure, diffusion from multiple refugia, and unfavourable climatic conditions at the LGM collectively support the hypothesis that caves served as microrefugia for P. reddelli. Similar patterns of genetic structure in P. reddelli and other troglophilic species across the Edwards Plateau karst region of Texas suggest that caves serving as microrefugia are important for the formation, maintenance, and future survival of troglophilic species in temperate karst regions.

Despite the recognized joint impact of climate and land cover change on facets of biodiversity and their associated functions, risk assessments have primarily evaluated impacts on species ranges and richness. Here we quantify the sensitivity of the functional structure of European avian assemblages to changes in both regional climate and land cover. We combine species range forecasts with functional-trait information. We show that species sensitivity to environmental change is randomly distributed across the functional tree of the European avifauna and that functionally unique species are not disproportionately threatened by 2080. However, projected species range changes will modify the mean species richness and functional diversity of bird diets and feeding behaviours. This will unequally affect the spatial structure of functional diversity, leading to homogenization across Europe. Therefore, global changes may alter the functional structure of species assemblages in the future in ways that need to be accounted for in conservation planning.

Macroevolutionary and microevolutionary studies provide complementary explanations of the processes shaping the evolution of niche breadth. Macroevolutionary approaches scrutinize factors such as the temporal and spatial environmental heterogeneities that drive differentiation among species. Microevolutionary studies, in contrast, focus on the processes that affect intraspecific variability. We combine these perspectives by using macroevolutionary models in a comparative study of intraspecific variability. We address potential differences in rates of evolution of niche breadth and position in annual and perennial plants of the Eriogonoideae subfamily of the Polygonaceae. We anticipated higher rates of evolution in annuals than in perennials owing to differences in generation time that are paralleled by rates of molecular evolution. Instead, we found that perennial eriogonoid species present greater environmental tolerance (wider climate niche) than annual species. Niche breadth of perennial species has evolved two to four times faster than in annuals, while niche optimum has diversified more rapidly among annual species than among perennials. Niche breadth and average elevation of species are correlated. Moreover, niche breadth increases more rapidly with mean species elevation in perennials than in annuals. Our results suggest that both environmental gradients and life-history strategy influence rates and patterns of niche breadth evolution.

Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.

Background: Adaptive radiation is the process by which a single ancestral species diversifies into many descendants adapted to exploit a wide range of habitats. The appearance of ecological opportunities, or the colonisation or adaptation to novel ecological resources, has been documented to promote adaptive radiation in many classic examples. Mutualistic interactions allow species to access resources untapped by competitors, but evidence shows that the effect of mutualism on species diversification can greatly vary among mutualistic systems. Here, we test whether the development of obligate mutualism with sea anemones allowed the clownfishes to radiate adaptively across the Indian and western Pacific oceans reef habitats., Results: We show that clownfishes morphological characters are linked with ecological niches associated with the sea anemones. This pattern is consistent with the ecological speciation hypothesis. Furthermore, the clownfishes show an increase in the rate of species diversification as well as rate of morphological evolution compared to their closest relatives without anemone mutualistic associations., Conclusions: The effect of mutualism on species diversification has only been studied in a limited number of groups. We present a case of adaptive radiation where mutualistic interaction is the likely key innovation, providing new insights into the mechanisms involved in the buildup of biodiversity. Due to a lack of barriers to dispersal, ecological speciation is rare in marine environments. Particular life-history characteristics of clownfishes likely reinforced reproductive isolation between populations, allowing rapid species diversification.

The rate of environmental niche evolution describes the capability of species to explore the available environmental space and is known to vary among species owing to lineage-specific factors. Trophic specialization is a main force driving species evolution and is responsible for classical examples of adaptive radiations in fishes. We investigate the effect of trophic specialization on the rate of environmental niche evolution in the damselfish, Pomacentridae, which is an important family of tropical reef fishes. First, phylogenetic niche conservatism is not detected in the family using a standard test of phylogenetic signal, and we demonstrate that the environmental niches of damselfishes that differ in trophic specialization are not equivalent while they still overlap at their mean values. Second, we estimate the relative rates of niche evolution on the phylogenetic tree and show the heterogeneity among rates of environmental niche evolution of the three trophic groups. We suggest that behavioural characteristics related to trophic specialization can constrain the evolution of the environmental niche and lead to conserved niches in specialist lineages. Our results show the extent of influence of several traits on the evolution of the environmental niche and shed new light on the evolution of damselfishes, which is a key lineage in current efforts to conserve biodiversity in coral reefs.

The major intention of the present study was to investigate whether an approach combining the use of niche-based palaeodistribution modeling and phylo-geography would support or modify hypotheses about the Quaternary distributional history derived from phylogeographic methods alone. Our study system comprised two closely related species of Alpine Primula. We used species distribution models based on the extant distribution of the species and last glacial maximum (LGM) climate models to predict the distribution of the two species during the LGM. Phylogeographic data were generated using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). In Primula hirsuta, models of past distribution and phylogeographic data are partly congruent and support the hypothesis of widespread nunatak survival in the Central Alps. Species distribution models (SDMs) allowed us to differentiate between alpine regions that harbor potential nunatak areas and regions that have been colonized from other areas. SDMs revealed that diversity is a good indicator for nunataks, while rarity is a good indicator for peripheral relict populations that were not source for the recolonization of the inner Alps. In P. daonensis, palaeo-distribution models and phylogeographic data are incongruent. Besides the uncertainty inherent to this type of modeling approach (e.g., relatively coarse 1-km grain size), disagreement of models and data may partly be caused by shifts of ecological niche in both species. Nevertheless, we demonstrate that the combination of palaeo-distribution modeling with phylogeographical approaches provides a more differentiated picture of the distributional history of species and partly supports (P. hirsuta) and partly modifies (P. daonensis and P. hirsuta) hypotheses of Quaternary distributional history. Some of the refugial area indicated by palaeodistribution models could not have been identified with phylogeographic data.

Climate change poses a serious threat to species persistence. Effective modelling of evolutionary responses to rapid climate change is therefore essential. In this review we examine recent advances in phylogenetic comparative methods, techniques normally used to study adaptation over long periods, which allow them to be applied to the study of adaptation over shorter time scales. This increased applicability is largely due to the emergence of more flexible models of character evolution and the parallel development of molecular technologies that can be used to assess adaptive variation at loci scattered across the genome. The merging of phylogenetic and population genetic approaches to the study of adaptation has significant potential to advance our understanding of rapid responses to environmental change., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D(2), +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.

Niche conservatism, the tendency of a species niche to remain unchanged over time, is often assumed when discussing, explaining or predicting biogeographical patterns. Unfortunately, there has been no basis for predicting niche dynamics over relevant timescales, from tens to a few hundreds of years. The recent application of species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogenetic methods to analysis of niche characteristics has provided insight to niche dynamics. Niche shifts and conservatism have both occurred within the last 100 years, with recent speciation events, and deep within clades of species. There is increasing evidence that coordinated application of these methods can help to identify species which likely fulfill one key assumption in the predictive application of SDMs: an unchanging niche. This will improve confidence in SDM-based predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions and biodiversity.

Conservation planning based on the occurrence of rare species has been criticized as being too limited in scope to conserve biodiversity as a whole. Conversely, planning based on indicator taxa may lack sufficient focus to conserve those species in greatest need of conservation. An alternative approach is to identify a variety of species at risk that are associated with areas of conservation value, which is defined based on species-independent characteristics. We identified potential indicators of conservation value using occurrence data on species at risk and independent information on conservation value that incorporated indices of ecosystem integrity. We propose a taxonomically diverse group of indicator species that are strongly associated with areas of exceptional ecosystem integrity, to serve as a focus for further research and in planning for biodiversity conservation. We identify potential indicator species by defining a null model in which species at risk are equally associated with areas of high ecosystem integrity, then by conducting randomization tests to identify noncompliant species in the state of Michigan, USA. Areas of high ecosystem integrity are selected using criteria to flag (1) secure biotic communities with structural integrity and few exotic species, (2) natural areas subjected to expert review, (3) contiguous relict areas of forest interior, (4) contiguous areas of unmodified wetland, and (5) all these areas combined. We determine the spatial occurrence of species at risk using data from Michigan's statewide Natural Heritage database. The potential indicators include plants, insects, and birds. Their species identity and distribution of occurrences varies with the five scenarios, and together the species broadly cover the entire state. These species at risk, many of which occur throughout the Great Lakes region, may be used to identify additional areas potentially high in conservation value and to monitor their conservation. The ecological criteria and numerical methods we employ may be broadly applicable as Heritage Program databases in North America and parts of Latin America grow to become representative of species distributions.

Ranavirus (family Iridoviridae) is a genus of pathogens of poikilotherms, and some ranaviruses may play a role in widespread mortality of amphibians. Ecology of viral transmission in amphibians is poorly known but can be addressed through experimentation in the laboratory. In this study, we use the Ranavirus frog virus 3 (FV3) as an experimental model for pathogen emergence in naive populations of tadpoles. We simulated emerging disease by exposing tadpoles of the Italian agile frog (Rana latastei), to the North American Ranavirus FV3. We demonstrated that mortality occurred due to viral exposure, exposure of tadpoles to decreasing concentrations of FV3 in the laboratory produced dose-dependent survival rates, and cannibalism of virus-carrying carcasses increased mortality due to FV3. These experiments suggest the potential for ecological mechanisms to affect the level of exposure of tadpoles to Ranavirus and to impact transmission of viral pathogens in aquatic systems.

Although it has been long presumed that population genetic variability should decrease as a species' range margin is approached, results of empirical investigations remain ambiguous. Sampling strategies employed by many of these studies have not adequately sampled the entire range. Here we present the results of an investigation of population genetic diversity in a vertebrate species, the Italian agile frog, Rana latastei, sampled comprehensively across its entire range. Our results show that genetic variability is not correlated with population location with respect to the range periphery. Instead, the model that best explains the genetic variation detectable across the range is based on an east-to-west gradient of declining diversity. Although we cannot state definitively what has led to this distribution, the most likely explanation is that the range of Rana latastei expanded postglacially from a Balkan refugium.

We estimated genetic and maternal variance components of larval life history characters in alpine populations of Rana temporaria (the common frog) using a full-sib/half-sib breeding design. We studied trait plasticity by raising tadpoles at 14 or 20 degrees C in the laboratory. Larval period and metamorphic mass were greater at 14 degrees C. Larval period did not differ between populations, but high elevation metamorphs were larger than low elevation metamorphs. Significant additive variation for larval period was detected in the low altitude population. No significant additive variation was detected for mass at metamorphosis (MM), which instead displayed significant maternal effects. Plasticity in metamorphic mass of froglets was greater in the high altitude population. The plastic response of larval period to temperature did not differ between the populations. Evolution of metamorphic mass is likely constrained by lack of additive genetic variation. In contrast, significant heritability for larval period suggests this trait may evolve in response to environmental change. These results differ from other studies on R. temporaria, suggesting that populations of this broadly distributed species present substantial geographic variation in the genetic architecture and plasticity of tadpole life history traits.

Experimental ponds were used as a model system of habitat patches to study the effect of habitat size on the relative growth performance of tadpoles of Bufo americanus and Pseudacris triseriata, and on colonization by predatory insects. Three pond depths and surface areas were habitat size treatments in a replicated, factorial experiment. Tadpoles of both species were astablished together at a single density and ponds were left open to natural colonization by aquatic insects. Pond area had a significant effect on the multivariate response of P. triseriata larval period, survival, and metamorphic mass. P. triseriata survived better relative to B. americanus in larger ponds. However, increasing pond area led to greater incidence of predacious beetle larvae (Dytiscus, Coleoptera: Dytiscidae). Dytiscus larvae had a significant negative effect on the survival of P. triseriata and led to reduced P. triseriata survival relative to B. americanus in colonized ponds. The results suggest that habitat size can influence community structure by altering the distribution of predation among habitat patches.