Search

We investigated spontaneous mammary tumor development and mammary gland morphogenesis in female Tg.NK mice postnatally exposed to dietary soy isoflavones (0, 11, 39, and 130 mg aglycones/kg diet) added to a Western-style diet. Instead of preventing mammary tumorigenesis, the highest dose of isoflavones was associated with a small but significant increase in the number and size of tumors as compared to mice administered a Western-style control diet (P < 0.05). At postnatal Week 6, dynamic activity (measured as apoptotic density) at the highest dose and the degree of branching of the mammary tree in all isoflavone-exposed groups was increased as compared to controls (P < 0.05). At adulthood, the epithelium appeared more quiescent in the medium- and high-dose groups evident by reduced apoptotic density and a reduction in the percentage of terminal end buds (TEBs), respectively, as compared to controls (P < 0.05). The number of actively dividing cells within the TEBs was unaffected by isoflavone exposure as was the activity of drug-metabolizing and antioxidant enzymes. In conclusion, isoflavones may augment mammary gland and mammary tumor development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased the global burden of respiratory morbidity and mortality. In Spain, 2020 saw a 68.5% surge in deaths from respiratory diseases compared to 2019, largely due to COVID-19. This study aims to describe respiratory disease mortality in Spain from 2019 to 2022, focusing on the intersection of COVID-19, pre-existing respiratory conditions, and specific health determinants., Materials and Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE), covering 102 causes of death, including tuberculosis, COVID-19, and lung cancer as respiratory-related conditions. The analysis considered absolute death counts and proportions by sex, age, and region, along with percentage changes in proportional mortality. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors potentially associated with COVID-19 and respiratory-specific mortality., Results: In 2022, Spain reported 98,128 deaths from respiratory diseases, accounting for 21.1% of all deaths and ranking as the second leading cause of death after cardiovascular diseases. Although deaths due to COVID-19 decreased in 2021 and 2022, there was a notable rise in other respiratory causes, indicating a lasting post-pandemic impact. Factors linked to higher mortality included male gender, older age, being divorced, and residing in urban areas, with significant regional variability., Conclusions: Despite overall mortality returning to pre-pandemic levels, this study highlights a significant increase in respiratory disease deaths in Spain in 2022 compared to 2019., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Background and Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact in population health worldwide, and particularly in people with pre-existing chronic diseases. Early risk identification and stratification is essential to reduce the impact of future outbreaks of pandemic potential. This study aimed to comprehensively examine factors associated with COVID-19 mortality across the pandemic waves in Spain., Methods: A retrospective study analyzed the characteristics of 13,974 patients admitted to Spanish hospitals due to SARS-CoV-2 infection from 2020-01-28 to 2022-12-31. The demographic and clinical features of patients during hospitalization on each pandemic waves were analyzed., Main Findings: The findings highlight the heterogeneity of patient characteristics, comorbidities and outcomes, across the waves. The high prevalence of cardiometabolic diseases (53.9%) among COVID-19 patients emphasizes the importance of controlling these risk factors to prevent severe COVID-19 outcomes., Conclusions: In summary, the study associate hospital mortality with factors such as advanced age and comorbidities. The decline in mortality after the 4th wave indicates potential influences like vaccination, viral adaptation, or improved treatments. Notably, dementia and cancer metastases emerge as critical factors linked to higher mortality, highlighting the importance of addressing these conditions in COVID-19 management and preparing for future challenges., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U.)

Background: The European Union (EU) faces many health-related challenges. Burden of diseases information and the resulting trends over time are essential for health planning. This paper reports estimates of disease burden in the EU and individual 27 EU countries in 2019, and compares them with those in 2010., Methods: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals for the whole EU and each country to evaluate age-standardised death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for Level 2 causes, as well as life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (HALE)., Results: In 2019, the age-standardised death and DALY rates in the EU were 465.8 deaths and 20,251.0 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. Between 2010 and 2019, there were significant decreases in age-standardised death and YLL rates across EU countries. However, YLD rates remained mainly unchanged. The largest decreases in age-standardised DALY rates were observed for "HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases" and "transport injuries" (each -19%). "Diabetes and kidney diseases" showed a significant increase for age-standardised DALY rates across the EU (3.5%). In addition, "mental disorders" showed an increasing age-standardised YLL rate (14.5%)., Conclusions: There was a clear trend towards improvement in the overall health status of the EU but with differences between countries. EU health policymakers need to address the burden of diseases, paying specific attention to causes such as mental disorders. There are many opportunities for mutual learning among otherwise similar countries with different patterns of disease., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Estimating the prevalence of double burden of malnutrition (DBM) is challenging in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region where various DBM typologies (e.g., obesity and stunting) are heterogeneous and estimates are scattered across literature This study aimed to assess the prevalence of DBM typologies in the LAC region. We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science to identify studies on the prevalence of DBM published between 1 January, 2000, and 23 January, 2023. Outcomes were the prevalence of the identified DBM typologies at the household, individual, or across life course levels. Random-effect meta-analyses of proportions were used to estimate pooled period prevalence for all outcomes. Heterogeneity was explored using meta-regressions. From 754 records identified, 60 (8%) studies were eligible, with a median of 4379 individuals. Studies reported data from 27 LAC countries collected between 1988 and 2017. Most studies used nationally representative surveys (68%) and scored as low risk of bias (70%). We identified 17 DBM typologies for which 360 estimates were analyzed. The prevalence of the identified DBM typologies ranged between 0% and 24%, with the DBM typology of "adult with overweight and child with anemia" having the highest prevalence (24.3%; 95% CI: 18.8%, 30.2%). The most frequently reported DBM typology was "adult with overweight and child with stunting," with a prevalence of 8.5% (95% CI: 7.7, 9.3). All prevalences carried large heterogeneity (I 2 >90%), modestly explained by subregions and countries. DBM across the life course could not be estimated owing to insufficient estimates. In conclusion, using available data, our study suggests that the burden of DBM in the LAC region ranges between 0% and 24%. In the most frequent DBM typologies, overweight was a common contributor. Substantial progress can be made in curbing the burden of DBM in the LAC region through strategies addressing excess weight within these population groups. This study was registered at PROSPERO as CRD42023406755., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To forecast the annual burden of type 2 diabetes and related socio-demographic disparities in Belgium until 2030., Methods: This study utilized a discrete-event transition microsimulation model. A synthetic population was created using 2018 national register data of the Belgian population aged 0-80 years, along with the national representative prevalence of diabetes risk factors obtained from the latest (2018) Belgian Health Interview and Examination Surveys using Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) as inputs to the Simulation of Synthetic Complex Data (simPop) model. Mortality information was obtained from the Belgian vital statistics and used to calculate annual death probabilities. From 2018 to 2030, synthetic individuals transitioned annually from health to death, with or without developing type 2 diabetes, as predicted by the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, and risk factors were updated via strata-specific transition probabilities., Results: A total of 6722 [95% UI 3421, 11,583] new cases of type 2 diabetes per 100,000 inhabitants are expected between 2018 and 2030 in Belgium, representing a 32.8% and 19.3% increase in T2D prevalence rate and DALYs rate, respectively. While T2D burden remained highest for lower-education subgroups across all three Belgian regions, the highest increases in incidence and prevalence rates by 2030 are observed for women in general, and particularly among Flemish women reporting higher-education levels with a 114.5% and 44.6% increase in prevalence and DALYs rates, respectively. Existing age- and education-related inequalities will remain apparent in 2030 across all three regions., Conclusions: The projected increase in the burden of T2D in Belgium highlights the urgent need for primary and secondary preventive strategies. While emphasis should be placed on the lower-education groups, it is also crucial to reinforce strategies for people of higher socioeconomic status as the burden of T2D is expected to increase significantly in this population segment., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Objective: We estimated the prevalence and time trends of the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) in Guatemala and explored its occurrence based on socio-demographic factors., Study Design: This was a secondary data analysis using information from four Demographic and Health Surveys covering the period 1998-2015., Methods: The unit of analysis was the household within which information was gathered from women 18-49 years and their children, 6-59 months. The main outcome was the prevalence of any DBM in the household (co-existence of undernutrition and overnutrition in a woman, her children or both). We estimated the prevalence of any DBM by survey and analysed time trends. Stepwise logistic regression was used to explore the occurrence of DBM and socio-demographic factors., Results: We analysed 39,749 households across all surveys. The prevalence of any DBM was 25.3% (95%CI: 22.1-28.7) in 1998-99, 23.8% (22.0-25.8) in 2002, 25.9% (24.3-27.5) in 2008-09 and 24.2% (22.9-25.5) in 2014-15, with no significant change over time (P = 0.782). Characteristics associated with lower odds of any DBM were rural residence, female-headed household, wealth and women's secondary education. Higher odds were seen for households with electricity, women >25y, indigenous and with >2 children., Conclusion: Our findings revealed that a quarter of Guatemala's households suffer from DBM, which has remained unchanged for 17 years. Interventions should prioritise urban areas, households of lower socio-economic status and those less educated. To increase awareness of policymakers of this pressing public health concern, further research on DBM could be strengthened by prospective study designs, integrating all household members and expanding the types of malnutrition., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

The global burden of type 2 diabetes is increasing at an alarming rate, fuelled by the obesity epidemic, with significant associated health and economic consequences and apparent inequalities. Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugars in diets worldwide and have been linked to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes through a variety of mechanisms, including excess weight. Taxing SSBs has become a promising public health strategy to reduce consumption and mitigate the burden of type 2 diabetes. A substantial body of evidence suggests that SSB taxes lead to increased prices and subsequent reduced consumption, with a potentially greater effect among lower socioeconomic groups. This highlights the potential for tax policies to have an impact on type 2 diabetes and address health inequalities. Evidence from several ongoing SSB tax schemes, including sales and excise taxes, indicates positive effects on improving consumption patterns, and modelling studies point to health gains by averting type 2 diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases. In contrast, evidence from empirical evaluation of the impact of SSB tax is scarce. Continued monitoring and the strengthening of evaluation research to develop context-tailored policies are required. In addition, there is a need to implement complementary efforts to amplify the impact of SSB taxation and effectively address the global burden of type 2 diabetes., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most prevalent cancer in Europe, with one-fifth of cases attributable to unhealthy lifestyles. Risk prediction models for quantifying CRC risk and identifying high-risk groups have been developed or validated across European populations, some considering lifestyle as a predictor., Purpose: To identify lifestyle predictors considered in existing risk prediction models applicable for European populations and characterise their corresponding parameter values for an improved understanding of their relative contribution to prediction across different models., Methods: A systematic review was conducted in PubMed and Web of Science from January 2000 to August 2021. Risk prediction models were included if (1) developed and/or validated in an adult asymptomatic European population, (2) based on non-invasively measured predictors and (3) reported mean estimates and uncertainty for predictors included. To facilitate comparison, model-specific lifestyle predictors were visualised using forest plots., Results: A total of 21 risk prediction models for CRC (reported in 16 studies) were eligible, of which 11 were validated in a European adult population but developed elsewhere, mostly USA. All models but two reported at least one lifestyle factor as predictor. Of the lifestyle factors, the most common predictors were body mass index (BMI) and smoking (each present in 13 models), followed by alcohol (11), and physical activity (7), while diet-related factors were less considered with the most commonly present meat (9), vegetables (5) or dairy (2). The independent predictive contribution was generally greater when they were collected with greater detail, although a noticeable variation in effect size estimates for BMI, smoking and alcohol., Conclusions: Early identification of high-risk groups based on lifestyle data offers the potential to encourage participation in lifestyle change and screening programmes, hence reduce CRC burden. We propose the commonly shared lifestyle predictors to be further used in public health prediction modelling for improved uptake of the model., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Effective domiciliary treatment can be useful in the early phase of COVID-19 to limit disease progression, and pressure on hospitals. There are discrepant data on the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Aim of this study is to evaluate whether the clinical outcome of patients who were hospitalized for COVID-19 is influenced by domiciliary treatment with NSAIDs. Secondary objective was to explore the association between other patient characteristics/therapies and outcome. Methods: A large dataset of COVID-19 patients was created in the context of a European Union-funded project (unCoVer). The primary outcome was explored using a study level random effects meta-analysis for binary (multivariate logistic regression models) outcomes adjusted for selected factors, including demographics and other comorbidities. Results: 218 out of 1,144 patients reported use of NSAIDs before admission. No association between NSAIDs use and clinical outcome was found (unadj. OR: 0.96, 95%CI: 0.68-1.38). The model showed an independent upward risk of death with increasing age (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.05-1.07) and male sex (1.36; 95% CI 1.04-1.76). Conclusion: In our study, the domiciliary use of NSAIDs did not show association with clinical outcome in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Older ages and male sex were associated to an increased risk of death., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Salvador, Mazzi, De Santis, Bertoli, Jonjić, Coklo, Majdan, Peñalvo and Buonfrate.)

Background: Breast cancer (BC) is a significant health concern among European women, with the highest prevalence rates among all cancers. Existing BC prediction models account for major risks such as hereditary, hormonal and reproductive factors, but research suggests that adherence to a healthy lifestyle can reduce the risk of developing BC to some extent. Understanding the influence and predictive role of lifestyle variables in current risk prediction models could help identify actionable, modifiable, targets among high-risk population groups., Purpose: To systematically review population-based BC risk prediction models applicable to European populations and identify lifestyle predictors and their corresponding parameter values for a better understanding of their relative contribution to the prediction of incident BC., Methods: A systematic review was conducted in PubMed, Embase and Web of Science from January 2000 to August 2021. Risk prediction models were included if (i) developed and/or validated in adult cancer-free women in Europe, (ii) based on easily ascertained information, and (iii) reported models' final predictors. To investigate further the comparability of lifestyle predictors across models, estimates were standardised into risk ratios and visualised using forest plots., Results: From a total of 49 studies, 33 models were developed and 22 different existing models, mostly from Gail (22 studies) and Tyrer-Cuzick and co-workers (12 studies) were validated or modified for European populations. Family history of BC was the most frequently included predictor (31 models), while body mass index (BMI) and alcohol consumption (26 and 21 models, respectively) were the lifestyle predictors most often included, followed by smoking and physical activity (7 and 6 models respectively). Overall, for lifestyle predictors, their modest predictive contribution was greater for riskier lifestyle levels, though highly variable model estimates across different models., Conclusions: Given the increasing BC incidence rates in Europe, risk models utilising readily available risk factors could greatly aid in widening the population coverage of screening efforts, while the addition of lifestyle factors could help improving model performance and serve as intervention targets of prevention programmes., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Administrative and health surveys are used in monitoring key health indicators in a population. This study investigated the agreement between self-reported disease status from the Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) and pharmaceutical insurance claims extracted from the Belgian Compulsory Health Insurance (BCHI) in ascertaining the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia., Methods: Linkage was made between the BHIS 2018 and the BCHI 2018, from which chronic condition was ascertained using the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification and defined daily dose. The data sources were compared using estimates of disease prevalence and various measures of agreement and validity. Multivariable logistic regression was performed for each chronic condition to identify the factors associated to the agreement between the two data sources., Results: The prevalence estimates computed from the BCHI and the self-reported disease definition in BHIS, respectively, are 5.8% and 5.9% diabetes cases, 24.6% and 17.6% hypertension cases, and 16.2% and 18.1% of hypercholesterolemia cases. The overall agreement and kappa coefficient between the BCHI and the self-reported disease status is highest for diabetes and is equivalent to 97.6% and 0.80, respectively. The disagreement between the two data sources in ascertaining diabetes is associated with multimorbidity and older age categories., Conclusion: This study demonstrated the capability of pharmacy billing data in ascertaining and monitoring diabetes in the Belgian population. More studies are needed to assess the applicability of pharmacy claims in ascertaining other chronic conditions and to evaluate the performance of other administrative data such as hospital records containing diagnostic codes., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: It is important to understand the effects of population ageing on disease burden and explore conditions that drive poor health in later life to prevent or manage these. We examined the development of disease burden and its components for major disease groups among older adults in Europe over the last 30 years., Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study, we analyzed burden of disease trends between 1990 and 2019 measured by years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among older adults (65+ years) in Western, Central and Eastern Europe using cause groups for diseases and injuries., Results: Between 1990 and 2019, the crude numbers of DALYs for all causes increased substantially among older Western Europeans. In Eastern Europe, the absolute DALYs also increased from 1990 to 2005 but then decreased between 2006 and 2013. However, DALY rates declined for all European regions over time, with large differences in the magnitude by region and gender. Changes in the YLL rate were mainly driven by the contribution of cardiovascular diseases., Conclusions: This study found an increased overall absolute disease burden among older Europeans between 1990 and 2019. The demographic change that has taken place in Eastern European countries implies a potential problem of directed resource allocation to the health care sector. Furthermore, the findings highlight the potential health gains through directing resources to health promotion and treatment to reduce YLDs and to prevent YLLs, primarily from cardiovascular diseases., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.)

Background: Front-of-pack labels, such as Nutri-Score, aim to offer clear information on the overall nutritional quality of foods and beverages to consumers, allowing them to make healthier food choices. Using the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database, the present study aims to map out European food consumption patterns by applying the Nutri-Score as a benchmark for nutritional value., Methods: Country-specific food consumption data, collected by multiple 24-h dietary recalls or food records available from EFSA, were linked to the Dutch Food Composition Database (NEVO). Foods and beverages consumed by adolescents (10-17 years), adults (18-64 years), and the elderly (65-74 years) were graded following the modified Food Standard Agency Nutrient Profiling System (FSAm-NPS) and classified according to Nutri-Score grading, from A to E. Subsequently, a dietary index score (FSAm-NPS-DI) was calculated for each country-specific diet by age-groups and sex as an energy-weighted mean of the FSAm-NPS score of all foods and beverages consumed, with lower scores for a diet of greater overall nutritional quality., Results: On average, the daily energy intake of adults across the European countries studied is distributed in 27.6% of A-, 12.9% of B-, 17% of C-, 30.0% of D-, and 12.5% of E-classified foods and beverages. This energy distribution, according to the Nutri-Score, corresponded to a median FSAm-NPS-DI score of 6.34 (interquartile range: 5.92, 7.19). For both adult males and females, Estonia reported the highest energy share from A-classified products, scoring the lowest on the FSAm-NPS-DI. On the other hand, Latvia reported the highest energy share from E-classified products, along with the highest FSAm-NPS-DI. Females and the elderly group reported, in general, a greater energy share from A- and a lower share from E-classified products, and had the lowest FSAm-NPS-DI scores. No sex-related difference was observed for adolescents whose share of energy was predominantly from A- and D-classified products, such as for adults and the elderly., Conclusion: Our analyses leveraging the secondary use of country-specific databases on dietary intakes found considerable variation in the nutritional value of European diets, with an overall agreement across all countries on a modestly healthier dietary profile for the elderly and among females., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Mertens and Peñalvo.)

Background: Nutrition transition towards a Western diet is happening in parallel with the rapidly increasing rates of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors in Kuwait. The cardiometabolic deaths attributable to poor diet have not been quantified among Kuwaiti adults., Methods: Using a Comparative Risk Assessment model that incorporated dietary intake data from Kuwait's first national nutrition survey, number of cardiometabolic deaths from the World Health Organization, and estimated associations of diet with cardiometabolic deaths from the Global Burden of Disease project, we estimated the number and proportion of cardiometabolic deaths attributable to suboptimal intake of 10 dietary factors among Kuwaiti adults ages 25+ years, and by population subgroups., Findings: An estimated 1,308 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 1,228-1,485) cardiometabolic deaths were attributed to suboptimal diet, accounting for 64.7% (95% UI = 60.7%-73.4%) of all cardiometabolic deaths in Kuwait in 2009. The low intake of nuts/seeds was associated with the highest estimated number and proportion of cardiometabolic deaths (n = 380, 18.8%), followed by high intake of sodium (n = 256, 12.6%), low intake of fruits (n = 250, 12.4%), low intake of vegetables (n = 236, 11.7%), low intake of whole grains (n = 201, 9.9%), and high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (n = 201, 9.9%). The estimated proportions of cardiometabolic deaths attributable to suboptimal diet were higher in men (67.7%) than women (57.8%) and in younger adults aged 25-34 years (84.5%) than older adults aged ≥55 years (55.6%)., Conclusion: Suboptimal dietary intake was associated with a very substantial proportion of cardiometabolic deaths among Kuwaiti adults in 2009, with young adults and men experiencing the largest proportion of diet-associated cardiometabolic deaths in Kuwait., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2022 Al-Lahou et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: The potential effect of migration on increasing cardiometabolic risk factors remains partially understood. We aim to synthesize the evidence comparing the burden of diabetes and adiposity of migrating populations in Europe, with that of their country of origin., Methods: We conducted a scoping literature review. We searched PubMed for studies investigating the effect of migration on diabetes or adiposity outcomes among migrants in countries from the European Union or the United Kingdom compared to the population in the country of origin. Studies were qualitatively synthesized in evidence tables and the demographic characteristics, study design, risk factors investigated, and outcomes were quantitatively summarized using measures of central tendency., Findings: Of 1175 abstracts retrieved, 28 studies were eligible. Most of the studies included migrating populations residing in Western (50%), Northern (39%), and Southern Europe (11%) originating from countries in Africa (46%), Asia (29%), or European overseas (25%) regions of which 85% were classified as low-middle-income countries. Most of the studies (93%) had a cross-sectional design. The median number of individuals in the country of origin was greater [917; IQR: 231-1378] than in the receiving country [249; 150-883]. Thirty-five percent of the studies investigated migration as an independent risk factor, whereas 28% contextualized migration into lifestyle changes. The majority of the studies (57%) reported both diabetes and adiposity outcomes. Within the limited evidence available, controversial results were found as some studies showed poorer outcomes for the migrating populations, while others showed the opposite., Conclusion: Studies assessing the impact of migration by comparing migrating populations and the population of origin on diabetes and adiposity outcomes have gained interest. So far, the available evidence is highly heterogeneous to inform public health strategies in the receiving countries. We recommend further research including a more robust methodology and in-depth characterization of the migrant populations., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

Objectives: To adopt a multi-state risk prediction model for critical disease/mortality outcomes among hospitalised COVID-19 patients using nationwide COVID-19 hospital surveillance data in Belgium., Materials and Methods: Information on 44,659 COVID-19 patients hospitalised between March 2020 and June 2021 with complete data on disease outcomes and candidate predictors was used to adopt a multi-state, multivariate Cox model to predict patients' probability of recovery, critical [transfer to intensive care units (ICU)] or fatal outcomes during hospital stay., Results: Median length of hospital stay was 9 days (interquartile range: 5-14). After admission, approximately 82% of the COVID-19 patients were discharged alive, 15% of patients were admitted to ICU, and 15% died in the hospital. The main predictors of an increased probability for recovery were younger age, and to a lesser extent, a lower number of prevalent comorbidities. A patient's transition to ICU or in-hospital death had in common the following predictors: high levels of c-reactive protein (CRP) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), reporting lower respiratory complaints and male sex. Additionally predictors for a transfer to ICU included middle-age, obesity and reporting loss of appetite and staying at a university hospital, while advanced age and a higher number of prevalent comorbidities for in-hospital death. After ICU, younger age and low levels of CRP and LDH were the main predictors for recovery, while in-hospital death was predicted by advanced age and concurrent comorbidities., Conclusion: As one of the very few, a multi-state model was adopted to identify key factors predicting COVID-19 progression to critical disease, and recovery or death., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Mertens, Serrien, Vandromme and Peñalvo.)

Importance: Some individuals experience persistent symptoms after initial symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (often referred to as Long COVID)., Objective: To estimate the proportion of males and females with COVID-19, younger or older than 20 years of age, who had Long COVID symptoms in 2020 and 2021 and their Long COVID symptom duration., Design, Setting, and Participants: Bayesian meta-regression and pooling of 54 studies and 2 medical record databases with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the 54 studies, 44 were published and 10 were collaborating cohorts (conducted in Austria, the Faroe Islands, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US). The participant data were derived from the 44 published studies (10 501 hospitalized individuals and 42 891 nonhospitalized individuals), the 10 collaborating cohort studies (10 526 and 1906), and the 2 US electronic medical record databases (250 928 and 846 046). Data collection spanned March 2020 to January 2022., Exposures: Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection., Main Outcomes and Measures: Proportion of individuals with at least 1 of the 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, estimated separately for hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals aged 20 years or older by sex and for both sexes of nonhospitalized individuals younger than 20 years of age., Results: A total of 1.2 million individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were included (mean age, 4-66 years; males, 26%-88%). In the modeled estimates, 6.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 2.4%-13.3%) of individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced at least 1 of the 3 Long COVID symptom clusters in 2020 and 2021, including 3.2% (95% UI, 0.6%-10.0%) for persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, 3.7% (95% UI, 0.9%-9.6%) for ongoing respiratory problems, and 2.2% (95% UI, 0.3%-7.6%) for cognitive problems after adjusting for health status before COVID-19, comprising an estimated 51.0% (95% UI, 16.9%-92.4%), 60.4% (95% UI, 18.9%-89.1%), and 35.4% (95% UI, 9.4%-75.1%), respectively, of Long COVID cases. The Long COVID symptom clusters were more common in women aged 20 years or older (10.6% [95% UI, 4.3%-22.2%]) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection than in men aged 20 years or older (5.4% [95% UI, 2.2%-11.7%]). Both sexes younger than 20 years of age were estimated to be affected in 2.8% (95% UI, 0.9%-7.0%) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. The estimated mean Long COVID symptom cluster duration was 9.0 months (95% UI, 7.0-12.0 months) among hospitalized individuals and 4.0 months (95% UI, 3.6-4.6 months) among nonhospitalized individuals. Among individuals with Long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, an estimated 15.1% (95% UI, 10.3%-21.1%) continued to experience symptoms at 12 months., Conclusions and Relevance: This study presents modeled estimates of the proportion of individuals with at least 1 of 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The COVID-19 pandemic saw a massive investment into collaborative research projects with a focus on producing data to support public health decisions. We relay our direct experience of four projects funded under the Horizon2020 programme, namely ReCoDID, ORCHESTRA, unCoVer and SYNCHROS. The projects provide insight into the complexities of sharing patient level data from observational cohorts. We focus on compliance with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and ethics approvals when sharing data across national borders. We discuss procedures for data mapping; submission of new international codes to standards organisation; federated approach; and centralised data curation. Finally, we put forward recommendations for the development of guidelines for the application of GDPR in case of major public health threats; mandatory standards for data collection in funding frameworks; training and capacity building for data owners; cataloguing of international use of metadata standards; and dedicated funding for identified critical areas., Competing Interests: MB reports grants to UMCU from Janssen Vaccines, Novartis and CureVac, consulting fees from Astra Zeneca, Pfizer, Janssen Vaccines, Novartis,Takeda,Janssen Vaccines and payments from Sanofi for Participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board. ET, EC and RJD report H2020 funding for ORCHESTRA. JH reports H2020 funding for ORCHESTRA, funding from the German Research Council for the SEPAN Project, funding from German Ministry of Education and Research for the EMUNE and the INSIDe Project and funding from Volkswagen Stiftung for the E2 project. AS and EV report H2020 funding for SYNCHROS. TJ reports H2020 funding for ReCoDID. All other authors declare no competing interests., (© 2022 The Authors.)

An increase in the diabetes prevalence is reported worldwide. We aimed to determine the diabetes prevalence and its risk factors among adults in a rural area of the Democratic Republic of Congo. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 1531 inhabitants, selected by five stages, in the Health Zone of Gombe-Matadi. Diabetes was defined according to the American Diabetes Association and the International Diabetes Federation. Fasting glycemia and/or an oral glucose tolerance test were collected. We measured body mass index, waist circumference and blood pressure. Mann Whitney's and chi-square tests compared respondents with non-respondents. Multivariable logistic regression measured associations between diabetes and its risk factors. Crude and standardized prevalence of diabetes were 6.7% and 5.3%, respectively. Undiagnosed diabetes accounted for 58.8%. The oral glucose tolerance test alone diagnosed 2.6% of cases. Diabetes was more frequent in males, unemployed, obese and hypertensive (p &lt; 0.05). Risk factors for diabetes were being male, aged ≥ 40 years, general and abdominal obesity associated with elderly, family history of diabetes, and hypertension. Diabetes in rural areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo appears to be underdiagnosed. The oral glucose tolerance test provides an opportunity to screen individuals for diabetes in this setting., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: As lifestyle modification offers a unique strategy to prevent diabetes, we evaluated the effectiveness of lifestyle interventions in the prevention of type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)., Methods: We did a systematic literature review and meta-analysis. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library for randomised controlled trials published in English, Spanish, French, and Portuguese between 1 January 2000 and 15 June 2022, evaluating multi-target and multi-component lifestyle interventions in at-risk populations conducted in LMICs. The main outcomes were incidence of type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes, and indicators of glycaemic control. We assessed the methodological quality of the studies using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Inverse-variance random-effects meta-analyses estimated the overall effect sizes. Sources of heterogeneity and study bias were evaluated. The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021279174)., Findings: From 14 330 abstracts, 48 (0·3%) studies with 50 interventions were eligible of which 56% were conducted in lower-middle-income countries, 44% in upper-middle, and none in low-income. 54% of the studies were assessed as moderate risk of bias and 14% as high risk. A median of 246 (IQR 137-511) individuals participated in the interventions with a median duration of 6 (3-12) months. Lifestyle interventions decreased the incidence risk ratio of type 2 diabetes by 25% (0·75 [95% CI 0·61 to 0·91]), and reduced the levels of HbA1c by 0·15% [-0·25 to -0·05], fasting plasma glucose by 3·44 mg/dL [-4·72 to -2·17], and 2-hr glucose tolerance by 4·18 mg/dL [-7·35 to -1·02]. No publication bias was suggested for these outcomes. High levels of heterogeneity ( I ²≥ 81%) were found in most meta-analyses. Exploration using meta-regressions could not identify any explanatory variable, except for fasting glucose for which the quality score of the articles seems to be an effect modifier decreasing slightly the heterogeneity (72%) in the low risk of bias pooled estimate. The effect on gestational diabetes could not be evaluated due to the scarcity of available studies., Interpretation: Comprehensive lifestyle interventions are effective strategies to prevent type 2 diabetes among at-risk populations in LMICs. The heterogeneity identified in our results should be considered when using these interventions to address the onset of type 2 diabetes., Funding: None., Competing Interests: We declare no competing risks., (© 2022 The Author(s).)

Introduction: As the prevalence of obesity among women of reproductive age is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa, the burden of lifestyle-related conditions is expected to rise quickly. This study aims to develop and evaluate a multi-component health promotion programme for a healthy lifestyle to ultimately prevent the onset of type 2 diabetes and gestational diabetes among adult women in Kisantu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo., Methods and Analysis: This study is a cluster randomised controlled trial whereby two groups of three healthcare centres each, matched by population size coverage and geographical area, will be randomised to an intervention or a comparison group. Adult women of reproductive age (18-49 years), non-pregnant or first-trimester pregnant, will be recruited from the healthcare centres. 144 women in the intervention centres will follow a 24-month multi-component health promotion programme based on educational and motivational strategies whereas the comparison centres (144 participants) will be limited to a basic educational strategy. The programme will be delivered by trained peer educators and entails individualised education sessions, education and physical activity group activities, and focus groups. Topics of an optimal diet, physical activity, weight management and awareness of type 2 and gestational diabetes will be covered. The primary outcome is the adherence to a healthy lifestyle measured by a validated closed-ended questionnaire and secondary outcomes include anthropometric measurements, clinical parameters, diet diversity and the level of physical activity. Participants from both groups will be assessed at baseline and every 6 months by trained health professionals from the recruiting healthcare centres. Data will be summarised by measures of central tendency for continuous outcomes, and frequency distribution and percentages for categorical data. The primary and secondary outcomes will be quantified using statistical mixed models., Ethics: This research was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp in Belgium (IRB/RR/AC/137) and the Ethical Committee of the University of Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (ESP/CE/130/2021). Any substantial change to the study protocol must be approved by all the bodies that have approved the initial protocol, before being implemented. Also, this journal will be informed regarding any protocol modification. Written informed consent will be required and obtained for all participants. No participant may be enrolled on the study until written informed consent has been obtained., Trial Registration Number: NCT05039307., Competing Interests: All authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Background: The Kin-Antwerp project aimed at improving the quality of care provided to patients with diabetes in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Central Africa, including the digitalisation of routine clinical data to improve patients' follow-up. We aim to analyse the data of a study population of Kin-Antwerp to characterise their demographic features, assess their achievement of glycemic target over time, and identify groups requiring prioritised attention., Methods: We performed a secondary database analysis of routinely collected information from primary care patients with type 2 diabetes followed from 1991 to 2019. Data included demographics (age, sex), anthropometrics (weight, height), clinical parameters (blood pressure, plasma glucose), and anti-diabetic treatments. Achievement of glycemic target, defined as fasting plasma glucose < 126 mg/dL, over time was assessed using a multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model., Results: Our study population of patients with type 2 diabetes (N = 8976) comprised a higher proportion of women (67%) and patients between 40 and 65 years old (70.4%). At the first follow-up, most patients were on treatment with insulin (56.5%) and had glycemic levels under the target (79.9%). Women presented more often with obesity (27.4%) and high systolic blood pressure (41.8%) than men (8.6% and 37.0%, respectively). Patients had a median follow-up of 1.8 (interquartile range: 0.5-3.4) years. Overall, the odds of achieving glycemic target increased by 18.4% (odds ratio: 1.184, 95% CI: 1.130 to 1.239; p < 0.001) per year of follow-up. Stratified analyses suggested that the odds of achieving glycemic control over time increased among older patients (> 40 years), but not among younger patients (< 40 years)., Conclusion: In our study population, an overall poor glycemic control was observed albeit with a modest improvement in the achievement of glycemic target throughout patients' follow-up. Younger patients may benefit from prioritised attention to achieve glycemic targets. Based on the information provided by the database, continue monitoring and improvement of the project Kin-Antwerp is recommended. Introducing further efforts to improve type 2 diabetes management should include robust glycemia-monitoring tools and haemoglobin A1c, as well as further outlining self-management strategies., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Objectives: Quantifying the combined impact of morbidity and mortality is a key enabler to assessing the impact of COVID-19 across countries and within countries relative to other diseases, regions, or demographics. Differences in methods, data sources, and definitions of mortality due to COVID-19 may hamper comparisons. We describe efforts to support countries in estimating the national-level burden of COVID-19 using disability-adjusted life years., Methods: The European Burden of Disease Network developed a consensus methodology, as well as a range of capacity-building activities to support burden of COVID-19 studies. These activities have supported 11 national studies so far, with study periods between January 2020 and December 2021., Results: National studies dealt with various data gaps and different assumptions were made to face knowledge gaps. Still, they delivered broadly comparable results that allow for interpretation of consistencies, as well as differences in the quantified direct health impact of the pandemic., Discussion: Harmonized efforts and methodologies have allowed for comparable estimates and communication of results. Future studies should evaluate the impact of interventions, and unravel the indirect health impact of the COVID-19 crisis., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Pires, Wyper, Wengler, Peñalvo, Haneef, Moran, Cuschieri, Redondo, De Pauw, McDonald, Moon, Shedrawy, Pallari, Charalampous, Devleesschauwer and Von Der Lippe.)

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to describe ultra-processed food and drinks (UPFDs) consumption, and associations with intake of total sugar and dietary fibre, and high BMI in adults across Europe., Methods: Using food consumption data collected by food records or 24-h dietary recalls available from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database, the foods consumed were classified by the level of processing using the NOVA classification. Diet quality was assessed by data linkage to the Dutch food composition tables (NEVO) and years lived with disability for high BMI from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Bivariate groupings were carried out to explore associations of UPFDs consumption with population intake of sugar and dietary fibre, and BMI burden, visualised by scatterplots., Results: The energy share from UPFDs varied markedly across the 22 European countries included, ranging from 14 to 44%, being the lowest in Italy and Romania, while the highest in the UK and Sweden. An overall modest decrease (2-15%) in UPFDs consumption is observed over time, except for Finland, Spain and the UK reporting increases (3-9%). Fine bakery wares and soft drinks were most frequently ranked as the main contributor. Countries with a higher sugar intake reported also a higher energy share from UPFDs, as most clearly observed for UPF (r = 0.57, p value = 0.032 for men; and r = 0.53, p value = 0.061 for women). No associations with fibre intake or high BMI were observed., Conclusion: Population-level UPFDs consumption substantially varied across Europe, although main contributors are similar. UPFDs consumption was not observed to be associated with country-level burden of high BMI, despite being related to a higher total sugar intake., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

To investigate the main motives driving dietary intake changes potentially introduced by preventive measures to address the pandemic, an online survey, using a 36-item Food Choice Questionnaire applied for the period before (the year 2019) and during (2020-2021) the pandemic, was distributed between July and October 2021 among adult residents from Belgium. A total of 427 eligible respondents, the majority Dutch-speaking, were included for analyses. The importance of nine motives for food choices, including health, mood, convenience, sensory appeal, natural content, price, weight control, familiarity and ethical concerns, was assessed by scoring from 1 to 5, and comparing mean scores from the during period with the before period. Sensory appeal was the most important food choice motive before (mean score of 4.02 ± 0.51) and during (3.98 ± 0.48) the pandemic. Convenience and health also ranked among the main motives, with health observed to become more important during the pandemic (3.69 ± 0.60 during vs. 3.64 ± 0.59 before). Additionally, mean scores of mood (3.41 ± 0.71 vs. 3.32 ± 0.58), natural content (3.35 ± 0.84 vs. 3.26 ± 0.85) and weight control (3.33 ± 0.79 vs. 3.25 ± 0.76) were significantly higher during as compared to before. The extent of change in the level of importance for natural content was smaller with increasing age, and for health larger for urban areas, but for other motives there were no significant differences across population subgroups. Changes in the level of importance were observed in both directions, while a moderate share of respondents declared no change, suggesting some persistence of food choice motives. Further activities within public health monitoring should be considered to fully understand the COVID-19 implications on food choice motives together with people's food behaviors and consumption.

Food policies for the prevention and management of diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) have been increasingly relying on microsimulation models (MSMs) to assess effectiveness. Given the increased uptake of MSMs, this review aims to provide an overview of the characteristics of MSMs that link diets with NCDs. A comprehensive review was conducted in PubMed and Web of Knowledge. Inclusion criteria were: 1) findings from an MSM; 2) diets, foods, or nutrients as the main exposure of interest; and 3) NCDs, such as overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, or cancer, as the disease outcome for impact assessment. This review included information from 33 studies using MSM in analyzing diet and diverse food policies on NCDs. Hereby, most models employed stochastic, discrete-time, dynamic microsimulation techniques to calculate anticipated (cost-)effectiveness of strategies based on food pricing, food reformulation, or dietary (lifestyle) interventions. Currently available models differ in the methodology used for quantifying the effect of the dietary changes on disease, and in the method for modeling the disease incidence and mortality. However, all studies provided evidence that the models were sufficiently capturing the close-to-reality situation by justifying their choice of model parameters and validating externally their modeled disease incidence and mortality with observed or predicted event data. With the increasing use of various MSMs, between-model comparisons, facilitated by open access models and good reporting practices, would be important for judging a model's accuracy, leading to continued improvement in the methodologies for developing and applying MSMs and, subsequently, a better understanding of the results by policymakers., (Copyright © 2021 © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Implementing a health promotion program for children is a complex endeavor. In this review, we outline the key lessons learned over 10 years of experience in implementing the SI! Program (Salud Integral-Comprehensive Health) for cardiovascular health promotion in preschool settings in 3 countries: Colombia (Bogotá), Spain (Madrid), and the United States (Harlem, New York). By matching rigorous efficacy studies with implementation science, we can help bridge the divide between science and educational practice. Achieving sustained lifestyle changes in preschool children through health promotion programs is likely to require the integration of several factors: 1) multidisciplinary teams; 2) multidimensional educational programs; 3) multilevel interventions; 4) local program coordination and community engagement; and 5) scientific evaluation through randomized controlled trials. Implementation of effective health promotion interventions early in life may induce long-lasting healthy behaviors that could help to curb the cardiovascular disease epidemic., Competing Interests: Funding Support and Author Disclosures This work is supported by the SHE Foundation and “la Caixa” Foundation (LCF/CE16/10700001). The project in Colombia was funded by Santo Domingo Foundation; the study in the United States (FAMILIA) was funded by the American Heart Association (grant no. 14SFRN20490315); and the study in Spain (SI! Program) was funded by the SHE Foundation, the research grant FIS-PI11/01885 (Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria del Instituto de Salud Carlos III), and Fundació la Marató de TV3 (369/C/2016). Dr Santos-Beneit is the recipient of grant LCF/PR/MS19/12220001 funded by “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434). Dr Fernández-Jiménez is the recipient of grant PI19/01704 funded by the Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria–Instituto de Salud Carlos III and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund/European Social Fund “A way to make Europe”/“Investing in your future.” The Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares is supported by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, and the Pro CNIC Foundation, and is a Severo Ochoa Center of Excellence (CEX2020-001041-S). All other authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: The specific association of olive oil consumption with coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke has not been totally established., Objective: to examine whether olive oil consumption is associated with subclinical atherosclerosis, the risk of total cardiovascular disease (CVD), CHD, and stroke., Methods: Three cohorts were included: AWHS (2318 men), SUN Project (18,266 men and women), and EPIC-Spain (39,393 men and women). Olive oil consumption was measured at baseline using validated questionnaires., Results: In the AWHS, 747 participants had a positive coronary artery calcium score (CACS>0), and the OR (95% CI) was 0.89 (0.72, 1.10) in those with virgin olive oil consumption ≥30 g/day (v. <10 g/day). In the SUN Project (follow-up 10.8 years) 261 total CVD cases occurred, and the HR was 0.57 (0.34, 0.96) for consumptions ≥30 g/day (v. <10 g/day). In the EPIC-Spain (follow-up 22.8 years) 1300 CHD cases and 938 stroke cases occurred; the HRs for stroke according, 0 to <10 (ref), 10 to <20, 20 to <30, and ≥30 g/day of olive oil consumption, were 0.84 (0.70, 1.02), 0.80 (0.66, 0.96), 0.89 (0.74, 1.07). A weaker association was observed for CHD. The association was stronger among those consuming virgin olive oil, instead of common (refined)., Conclusions: Olive oil is associated with lower risk of CVD and stroke. The maximum benefit could be obtained with a consumption between 20 and 30 g/day. The association could be stronger for virgin olive oil and might operate from the early stages of the disease., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest All authors have completed the Unified Competing Interest form and declare: no support from any organisation for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years, no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Early warning tools are crucial for the timely application of intervention strategies and the mitigation of the adverse health, social and economic effects associated with outbreaks of epidemic potential such as COVID-19. This paper introduces, the Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), a new, conceptually simple, early warning tool for oncoming epidemic waves. EVI is based on the volatility of newly reported cases per unit of time, ideally per day, and issues an early warning when the volatility change rate exceeds a threshold. Data on the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are used to demonstrate the use of EVI. Results from the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy and New York State are presented here, based on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, from January 22, 2020, until April 13, 2021. Live daily updated predictions for all world countries and each of the United States of America are publicly available online. For Italy, the overall sensitivity for EVI was 0.82 (95% Confidence Intervals: 0.75; 0.89) and the specificity was 0.91 (0.88; 0.94). For New York, the corresponding values were 0.55 (0.47; 0.64) and 0.88 (0.84; 0.91). Consecutive issuance of early warnings is a strong indicator of main epidemic waves in any country or state. EVI's application to data from the current COVID-19 pandemic revealed a consistent and stable performance in terms of detecting new waves. The application of EVI to other epidemics and syndromic surveillance tasks in combination with existing early warning systems will enhance our ability to act swiftly and thereby enhance containment of outbreaks., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objectives: Comprehensively measure the trends in health disparities by sociodemographic strata in terms of exposure to lifestyle and metabolic risks, and prevalence and mortality of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) during the last 20 years in Belgium., Design: Cross-sectional analysis of periodic national-representative health interview surveys and vital statistics., Setting: Population-based study of adult residents in Belgium between 1997 and 2018., Participants: Adults aged 25-84 years and resident in Belgium in the years 1997 (7256 adults), 2001 (8665), 2004 (9054), 2008 (7343), 2013 (7704) and 2018 (8358)., Main Outcome Measure: Age-standardised prevalence rates of modifiable lifestyle risks (poor diet, smoking, excessive alcohol use and leisure-time physical inactivity), metabolic risks (high body mass index (BMI), blood pressure and cholesterol levels) and major NCDs (type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancer, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)), with their relative health disparities across strata by age, sex, region of residence, nationality, education and income level, and according to high versus low engagement in the four lifestyle risks, calculated from a survey-weighted age-adjusted logistic regression., Results: Greater avoidable disparities were observed between extremes of education and income strata. The most marked disparities were found for exposure to lifestyle risks (except excessive alcohol use), prevalence of high BMI as well as T2DM, asthma and COPD, with disparities of daily smoking and COPD worsening over time. Still, NCD-specific mortality rates were significantly higher among men (except asthma), residents of Wallonia and Brussels (except cerebrovascular disease), and among the native Belgians (except T2DM and asthma). High engagement in lifestyle risks was generally observed for men, residents of the region Wallonia, and among lower education and income strata. This subgroup (20%) had a worse health profile as compared with those who had a low-risk lifestyle (25%), shown by prevalence ratios varying between 1.1 and 1.6 for metabolic risks, and between 1.8 and 3.7 for CVD, asthma and COPD., Conclusions: Improving population health, including promoting greater health equity, requires approaches to be tailored to high-risk groups with actions tackling driving root causes of disparities seen by social factors and unhealthy lifestyle., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: unCoVer-Unravelling data for rapid evidence-based response to COVID-19-is a Horizon 2020-funded network of 29 partners from 18 countries capable of collecting and using real-world data (RWD) derived from the response and provision of care to patients with COVID-19 by health systems across Europe and elsewhere. unCoVer aims to exploit the full potential of this information to rapidly address clinical and epidemiological research questions arising from the evolving pandemic., Methods and Analysis: From the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, partners are gathering RWD from electronic health records currently including information from over 22 000 hospitalised patients with COVID-19, and national surveillance and screening data, and registries with over 1 900 000 COVID-19 cases across Europe, with continuous updates. These heterogeneous datasets will be described, harmonised and integrated into a multi-user data repository operated through Opal-DataSHIELD, an interoperable open-source server application. Federated data analyses, without sharing or disclosing any individual-level data, will be performed with the objective to reveal patients' baseline characteristics, biomarkers, determinants of COVID-19 prognosis, safety and effectiveness of treatments, and potential strategies against COVID-19, as well as epidemiological patterns. These analyses will complement evidence from efficacy/safety clinical trials, where vulnerable, more complex/heterogeneous populations and those most at risk of severe COVID-19 are often excluded., Ethics and Dissemination: After strict ethical considerations, databases will be available through a federated data analysis platform that allows processing of available COVID-19 RWD without disclosing identification information to analysts and limiting output to data aggregates. Dissemination of unCoVer's activities will be related to the access and use of dissimilar RWD, as well as the results generated by the pooled analyses. Dissemination will include training and educational activities, scientific publications and conference communications., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: The widespread use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) by patients with chronic conditions raised early concerns on the potential exacerbation of COVID-19 severity and fatality. Previous studies addressing this question have used standard methods that may lead to biased estimates when analysing hospital data because of the presence of competing events and event-related dependency. We investigated the association of ACEIs/ARBs' use with COVID-19 disease outcomes using time-to-event data in a multistate setting to account for competing events and minimise bias., Setting: Nationwide surveillance data from 119 Belgian hospitals., Participants: Medical records of 10 866 patients hospitalised from 14 March 2020to 14 June 2020 with a confirmed SARS-CoV-19 infection and information about ACEIs/ARBs' use., Primary Outcome Measure: Multistate, multivariate Cox-Markov models were used to estimate the hazards of patients transitioning through health states from admission to discharge or death, along with transition probabilities calculated by combining the baseline cumulative hazard and regression coefficients., Results: After accounting for potential confounders, there was no discernable association between ACEIs/ARBs' use and transfer to intensive care unit (ICU). Contrastingly, for patients without ICU transfer, ACEIs/ARBs' use was associated with a modest increase in recovery (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.13, p=0.027) and reduction in fatality (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.93, p=0.001) transitions. For patients transferred to ICU admission, no evidence of an association between ACEIs/ARBs' use and recovery (HR 1.16, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.38, p=0.098) or in-hospital death (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.12, p=0.381) was observed. Male gender and older age were significantly associated with higher risk of ICU admission or death. Chronic cardiometabolic comorbidities were also associated with less recovery., Conclusions: For the first time, a multistate model was used to address magnitude and direction of the association of ACEIs/ARBs' use on COVID-19 progression. By minimising bias, this study provided a robust indication of a protective, although modest, association with recovery and survival., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic brought changes to almost every segment of our lives, including dietary habits. We present one among several studies, and the first on the Croatian population, aiming at investigating changes of food choice motives before and during the pandemic. The study was performed in June 2021 as an online-based survey, using a 36-item Food Choice Questionnaire applied for both the periods before and during the pandemic. The final sample consisted of 1232 adults living in Croatia. Sensory appeal was ranked as the number one most important food choice motive before, whereas health was ranked as the number one most important food choice motive during the pandemic. Ethical concern was reported as the least important food choice motive both before and during the pandemic. In women, natural content ( p = 0.002), health, convenience, price, weight control, familiarity, and ethical concern (all p < 0.001) became more important during the pandemic, while price ( p = 0.009), weight control, familiarity, and ethical concern (all p < 0.001) became more relevant for men. All together, these can be considered favorable changes toward optimal diets and may result in beneficial influences on health and lifestyle. Education strategies and efficiently tackling misinformation are prerequisites for informed food choice, which will ensure long-lasting positive effects of such changes.

Background: The workplace offers a unique opportunity for effective health promotion. We aimed to comprehensively study the effectiveness of multicomponent worksite wellness programmes for improving diet and cardiometabolic risk factors., Methods: We did a systematic literature review and meta-analysis, following PRISMA guidelines. We searched PubMed-MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Education Resources Information Center, from Jan 1, 1990, to June 30, 2020, for studies with controlled evaluation designs that assessed multicomponent workplace wellness programmes. Investigators independently appraised the evidence and extracted the data. Outcomes were dietary factors, anthropometric measures, and cardiometabolic risk factors. Pooled effects were calculated by inverse-variance random-effects meta-analysis. Potential sources of heterogeneity and study biases were evaluated., Findings: From 10 169 abstracts reviewed, 121 studies (82 [68%] randomised controlled trials and 39 [32%] quasi-experimental interventions) met the eligibility criteria. Most studies were done in North America (57 [47%]), and Europe, Australia, or New Zealand (36 [30%]). The median number of participants was 413·0 (IQR 124·0-904·0), and median duration of intervention was 9·0 months (4·5-18·0). Workplace wellness programmes improved fruit and vegetable consumption (0·27 servings per day [95% CI 0·16 to 0·37]), fruit consumption (0·20 servings per day [0·11 to 0·28]), body-mass index (-0·22 kg/m 2 [-0·28 to -0·17]), waist circumference (-1·47 cm [-1·96 to -0·98]), systolic blood pressure (-2·03 mm Hg [-3·16 to -0·89]), and LDL cholesterol (-5·18 mg/dL [-7·83 to -2·53]), and to a lesser extent improved total fat intake (-1·18% of daily energy intake [-1·78 to -0·58]), saturated fat intake (-0·70% of daily energy [-1·22 to -0·18]), bodyweight (-0·92 kg [-1·11 to -0·72]), diastolic blood pressure (-1·11 mm Hg [-1·78 to -0·44]), fasting blood glucose (-1·81 mg/dL [-3·33 to -0·28]), HDL cholesterol (1·11 mg/dL [0·48 to 1·74]), and triglycerides (-5·38 mg/dL [-9·18 to -1·59]). No significant benefits were observed for intake of vegetables (0·03 servings per day [95% CI -0·04 to 0·10]), fibre (0·26 g per day [-0·15 to 0·67]), polyunsaturated fat (-0·23% of daily energy [-0·59 to 0·13]), or for body fat (-0·80% [-1·80 to 0·21]), waist-to-hip ratio (-0·00 ratio [-0·01 to 0·00]), or lean mass (1·01 kg [-0·82 to 2·83]). Heterogeneity values ranged from 46·9% to 91·5%. Between-study differences in outcomes were not significantly explained by study design, location, population, or similar factors in heterogeneity analyses., Interpretation: Workplace wellness programmes are associated with improvements in specific dietary, anthropometric, and cardiometabolic risk indicators. The heterogeneity identified in study designs and results should be considered when using these programmes as strategies to improve cardiometabolic health., Funding: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests JS is a current employee of General Mills, a food manufacturer; her contribution to this work took place during her affiliation with Tufts University. Her salary at the time of this work was supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. RM reports grants to her institution from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Nestle, and Danone, outside the submitted work; and consulting fees from Development Initiatives, outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

(1) Background: Working night shifts has been associated with altered circadian rhythms, lifestyle habits, and cardiometabolic risks. No information on the potential association of working shift and the presence of atherosclerosis is available. The aim of this study was to quantify the association between different work shifts and the presence of subclinical atherosclerosis objectively measured by imaging. (2) Methods: Analyses were conducted on the baseline data of the Aragon Workers Health Study (AWHS) cohort, including information on 2459 middle-aged men. Categories of shift work included central day shift, rotating morning-evening or morning-evening-night shift, and night shift. The presence of atherosclerotic plaques was assessed by 2D ultrasound in the carotid and femoral vascular territories. Multivariable logistic models and mediation analysis were conducted to characterize and quantify the association between study variables. (3) Results: Participants working night or rotating shifts presented an overall worse cardiometabolic risk profile, as well as more detrimental lifestyle habits. Workers in the most intense (morning-evening-night) rotating shift presented higher odds of subclinical atherosclerosis (odds ratio: 1.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.12 to 2.27) compared to workers in the central shift, independently of the presence of lifestyle and metabolic risk factors. A considerable (21%) proportion of this association was found to be mediated by smoking, indicating that altered sleep-wake cycles have a direct relationship with the early presence of atherosclerotic lesions. (4) Conclusions: Work shifts should be factored in during workers health examinations, and when developing effective workplace wellness programs.

Background: Although reasonable to assume, it is not yet clear whether malnourished countries are at higher risk for severe or fatal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aims to identify the countries where prevalent malnutrition may be a driving factor for fatal disease after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Methods: Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019, country-level burden of malnutrition was quantified using four indicators: death rates for child growth failure (underweight, stunting, and/or wasting) and years lived with disability (YLD) attributed to iron and vitamin A deficiencies and high body mass index (BMI). Global mortality descriptors of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic were extracted from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and case fatality ratios (CFRs) were calculated introducing a lag time of 10 weeks after the first death of a confirmed case. Bivariate analyses for 172 countries were carried out for malnutrition indicators and fatal COVID-19. Correlations between burden indicators were characterized by Spearman's rank correlation coefficients (ρ) and visually by scatterplots. Restricted cubic splines and underlying negative binomial regressions adjusted for countries' age-structure, prevalent chronic comorbidities related to COVID-19, population density, and income group were used to explore non-linear relationships. Results: Stratified by the World Bank income group, a moderate positive association between YLD rates for iron deficiency and CFRs for COVID-19 was observed for low-income countries (ρ = 0.60, p = 0.027), whereas no clear indications for the association with child growth failure, vitamin A deficiency, or high BMI were found (ρ < 0.30). Countries ranking high on at least three malnutrition indicators and presenting also an elevated CFR for COVID-19 are sub-Saharan African countries, namely, Angola, Burkina Faso, Chad, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Sudan, and Tanzania, as well as Yemen and Guyana. Conclusions: Population-level malnutrition appears to be related to increased rates of fatal COVID-19 in areas with an elevated burden of undernutrition, such as countries in the Sahel strip. COVID-19 response plans in malnourished countries, vulnerable to fatal COVID-19, should incorporate food security, nutrition, and social protection as a priority component in order to reduce COVID-19 fatality., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Mertens and Peñalvo.)