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The article focuses on a workshop held at the European Molecular Biology Laboratory called "Predicting evolution" which explored the predictability of evolutionary biology with the help of computational and theoretical approaches and the integration of empirical evolutionary information. It mentions that the discussions held at the workshop on evolution of biological systems at various levels from genes and molecules to organism development and ecology.

The mapping from genotype to phenotype to fitness typically involves multiple nonlinearities that can transform the effects of mutations. For example, mutations may contribute additively to a phenotype, but their effects on fitness may combine non-additively because selection favors a low or intermediate value of that phenotype. This can cause incongruence between the topographical properties of a fitness landscape and its underlying genotype-phenotype landscape. Yet, genotype-phenotype landscapes are often used as a proxy for fitness landscapes to study the dynamics and predictability of evolution. Here, we use theoretical models and empirical data on transcription factor-DNA interactions to systematically study the incongruence of genotype-phenotype and fitness landscapes when selection favors a low or intermediate phenotypic value. Using the theoretical models, we prove a number of fundamental results. For example, selection for low or intermediate phenotypic values does not change simple sign epistasis into reciprocal sign epistasis, implying that genotype-phenotype landscapes with only simple sign epistasis motifs will always give rise to single-peaked fitness landscapes under such selection. More broadly, we show that such selection tends to create fitness landscapes that are more rugged than the underlying genotype-phenotype landscape, but this increased ruggedness typically does not frustrate adaptive evolution because the local adaptive peaks in the fitness landscape tend to be nearly as tall as the global peak. Many of these results carry forward to the empirical genotype-phenotype landscapes, which may help to explain why low- and intermediate-affinity transcription factor-DNA interactions are so prevalent in eukaryotic gene regulation. Author summary: How do mutations change phenotypic traits and organismal fitness? This question is often addressed in the context of a classic metaphor of evolutionary theory—the fitness landscape. A fitness landscape is akin to a physical landscape, in which genotypes define spatial coordinates, and fitness defines the elevation of each coordinate. Evolution then acts like a hill-climbing process, in which populations ascend fitness peaks as a consequence of mutation and selection. It is becoming increasingly common to construct such landscapes using experimental data from high-throughput sequencing technologies and phenotypic assays, in systems such as macromolecules and gene regulatory circuits. Although these landscapes are typically defined by molecular phenotypes, and are therefore more appropriately referred to as genotype-phenotype landscapes, they are often used to study evolutionary dynamics. This requires the assumption that the molecular phenotype is a reasonable proxy for fitness, which need not be the case. For example, selection may favor a low or intermediate phenotypic value, causing incongruence between a fitness landscape and its underlying genotype-phenotype landscape. Here, we study such incongruence using a diversity of theoretical models and experimental data from gene regulatory systems. We regularly find incongruence, in that fitness landscapes tend to comprise more peaks than their underlying genotype-phenotype landscapes. However, using evolutionary simulations, we show that this increased ruggedness need not impede adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mutation is a biased stochastic process, with some types of mutations occurring more frequently than others. Previous work has used synthetic genotype-phenotype landscapes to study how such mutation bias affects adaptive evolution. Here, we consider 746 empirical genotype-phenotype landscapes, each of which describes the binding affinity of target DNA sequences to a transcription factor, to study the influence of mutation bias on adaptive evolution of increased binding affinity. By using empirical genotype-phenotype landscapes, we need to make only few assumptions about landscape topography and about the DNA sequences that each landscape contains. The latter is particularly important because the set of sequences that a landscape contains determines the types of mutations that can occur along a mutational path to an adaptive peak. That is, landscapes can exhibit a composition bias—a statistical enrichment of a particular type of mutation relative to a null expectation, throughout an entire landscape or along particular mutational paths—that is independent of any bias in the mutation process. Our results reveal the way in which composition bias interacts with biases in the mutation process under different population genetic conditions, and how such interaction impacts fundamental properties of adaptive evolution, such as its predictability, as well as the evolution of genetic diversity and mutational robustness. Author summary: Mutation is often depicted as a random process due its unpredictable nature. However, such randomness does not imply uniformly distributed outcomes, because some DNA sequence changes happen more frequently than others. Such mutation bias can be an orienting factor in adaptive evolution, influencing the mutational trajectories populations follow toward higher-fitness genotypes. Because these trajectories are typically just a small subset of all possible mutational trajectories, they can exhibit composition bias—an enrichment of a particular kind of DNA sequence change, such as transition or transversion mutations. Here, we use empirical data from eukaryotic transcriptional regulation to study how mutation bias and composition bias interact to influence adaptive evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A study aimed at determining the underlying genetic mechanisms that facilitate adaptation in evolving populations, is presented and described its use of directed evolution in Escherichia coli to accumulate variation in populations of yellow fluorescent proteins and evolving the proteins toward the new phenotype of green fluorescence. Topics covered include diversity and fitness of the evolved adaptive genotypes of populations with cryptic variation and effect of cryptic variation on evolution.

Transition bias, an overabundance of transitions relative to transversions, has been widely reported among studies of the rates and spectra of spontaneous mutations. However, demonstrating the role of transition bias in adaptive evolution remains challenging. In particular, it is unclear whether such biases direct the evolution of bacterial pathogens adapting to treatment. We addressed this challenge by analyzing adaptive antibiotic-resistance mutations in the major human pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB). We found strong evidence for transition bias in two independently curated data sets comprising 152 and 208 antibiotic-resistance mutations. This was true at the level of mutational paths (distinct adaptive DNA sequence changes) and events (individual instances of the adaptive DNA sequence changes) and across different genes and gene promoters conferring resistance to a diversity of antibiotics. It was also true for mutations that do not code for amino acid changes (in gene promoters and the 16S ribosomal RNA gene rrs) and for mutations that are synonymous to each other and are therefore likely to have similar fitness effects, suggesting that transition bias can be caused by a bias in mutation supply. These results point to a central role for transition bias in determining which mutations drive adaptive antibiotic resistance evolution in a key pathogen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The joint distribution of selection coefficients and mutation rates is a key determinant of the genetic architecture of molecular adaptation. Three different distributions are of immediate interest: (1) the "nominal" distribution of possible changes, prior to mutation or selection; (2) the "de novo" distribution of realized mutations; and (3) the "fixed" distribution of selectively established mutations. Here, we formally characterize the relationships between these joint distributions under the strong-selection/weak-mutation (SSWM) regime. The de novo distribution is enriched relative to the nominal distribution for the highest rate mutations, and the fixed distribution is further enriched for the most highly beneficial mutations. Whereas mutation rates and selection coefficients are often assumed to be uncorrelated, we show that even with no correlation in the nominal distribution, the resulting de novo and fixed distributions can have correlations with any combination of signs. Nonetheless, we suggest that natural systems with a finite number of beneficial mutations will frequently have the kind of nominal distribution that induces negative correlations in the fixed distribution. We apply our mathematical framework, along with population simulations, to explore joint distributions of selection coefficients and mutation rates from deep mutational scanning and cancer informatics. Finally, we consider the evolutionary implications of these joint distributions together with two additional joint distributions relevant to parallelism and the rate of adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much of gene regulation is carried out by proteins that bind DNA or RNA molecules at specific sequences. One class of such proteins is transcription factors, which bind short DNA sequences to regulate transcription. Another class is RNA binding proteins, which bind short RNA sequences to regulate RNA maturation, transport, and stability. Here, we study the robustness and evolvability of these regulatory mechanisms. To this end, we use experimental binding data from 172 human and fruit fly transcription factors and RNA binding proteins as well as human polymorphism data to study the evolution of binding sites in vivo. We find little difference between the robustness of regulatory protein-RNA interactions and transcription factor-DNA interactions to DNA mutations. In contrast, we find that RNA-mediated regulation is less evolvable than transcriptional regulation, because mutations are less likely to create interactions of an RNA molecule with a new RNA binding protein than they are to create interactions of a gene regulatory region with a new transcription factor. Our observations are consistent with the high level of conservation observed for interactions between RNA binding proteins and their target molecules as well as the evolutionary plasticity of regulatory regions bound by transcription factors. They may help explain why transcriptional regulation is implicated in many more evolutionary adaptations and innovations than RNA-mediated gene regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Circuit motifs are small directed subgraphs that appear in real-world networks significantly more often than in randomized networks. In the Boolean model of gene circuits, most motifs are realized by multiple circuit genotypes. Each of a motif’s constituent circuit genotypes may have one or more functions, which are embodied in the expression patterns the circuit forms in response to specific initial conditions. Recent enumeration of a space of nearly 17 million three-gene circuit genotypes revealed that all circuit motifs have more than one function, with the number of functions per motif ranging from 12 to nearly 30,000. This indicates that some motifs are more functionally versatile than others. However, the individual circuit genotypes that constitute each motif are less robust to mutation if they have many functions, hinting that functionally versatile motifs may be less robust to mutation than motifs with few functions. Here, I explore the relationship between versatility and robustness in circuit motifs, demonstrating that functionally versatile motifs are robust to mutation despite the inherent tradeoff between versatility and robustness at the level of an individual circuit genotype. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many developmental, physiological, and behavioral processes depend on the precise expression of genes in space and time. Such spatiotemporal gene expression phenotypes arise from the binding of sequence-specific transcription factors (TFs) to DNA, and from the regulation of nearby genes that such binding causes. These nearby genes may themselves encode TFs, giving rise to a transcription factor network (TFN), wherein nodes represent TFs and directed edges denote regulatory interactions between TFs. Computational studies have linked several topological properties of TFNs — such as their degree distribution — with the robustness of a TFN's gene expression phenotype to genetic and environmental perturbation. Another important topological property is assortativity, which measures the tendency of nodes with similar numbers of edges to connect. In directed networks, assortativity comprises four distinct components that collectively form an assortativity signature. We know very little about how a TFN's assortativity signature affects the robustness of its gene expression phenotype to perturbation. While recent theoretical results suggest that increasing one specific component of a TFN's assortativity signature leads to increased phenotypic robustness, the biological context of this finding is currently limited because the assortativity signatures of real-world TFNs have not been characterized. It is therefore unclear whether these earlier theoretical findings are biologically relevant. Moreover, it is not known how the other three components of the assortativity signature contribute to the phenotypic robustness of TFNs. Here, we use publicly available DNaseI-seq data to measure the assortativity signatures of genome-wide TFNs in 41 distinct human cell and tissue types. We find that all TFNs share a common assortativity signature and that this signature confers phenotypic robustness to model TFNs. Lastly, we determine the extent to which each of the four components of the assortativity signature contributes to this robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Latent phenotypes are non-adaptive byproducts of adaptive phenotypes. They exist in biological systems as different as promiscuous enzymes and genome-scale metabolic reaction networks, and can give rise to evolutionary adaptations and innovations. We know little about their prevalence in the gene expression phenotypes of regulatory circuits, important sources of evolutionary innovations. Results Here, we study a space of more than sixteen million three-gene model regulatory circuits, where each circuit is represented by a genotype, and has one or more functions embodied in one or more gene expression phenotypes. We find that the majority of circuits with single functions have latent expression phenotypes. Moreover, the set of circuits with a given spectrum of functions has a repertoire of latent phenotypes that is much larger than that of any one circuit. Most of this latent repertoire can be easily accessed through a series of small genetic changes that preserve a circuit's main functions. Both circuits and gene expression phenotypes that are robust to genetic change are associated with a greater number of latent phenotypes. Conclusions Our observations suggest that latent phenotypes are pervasive in regulatory circuits, and may thus be an important source of evolutionary adaptations and innovations involving gene regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In gene regulatory circuits, the expression of individual genes is commonly modulated by a set of regulating gene products, which bind to a gene's cis-regulatory region. This region encodes an input-output function, referred to as signal-integration logic, that maps a specific combination of regulatory signals (inputs) to a particular expression state (output) of a gene. The space of all possible signal-integration functions is vast and the mapping from input to output is many-to-one: For the same set of inputs, many functions (genotypes) yield the same expression output (phenotype). Here, we exhaustively enumerate the set of signal-integration functions that yield identical gene expression patterns within a computational model of gene regulatory circuits. Our goal is to characterize the relationship between robustness and evolvability in the signal-integration space of regulatory circuits, and to understand how these properties vary between the genotypic and phenotypic scales. Among other results, we find that the distributions of genotypic robustness are skewed, so that the majority of signal-integration functions are robust to perturbation. We show that the connected set of genotypes that make up a given phenotype are constrained to specific regions of the space of all possible signal-integration functions, but that as the distance between genotypes increases, so does their capacity for unique innovations. In addition, we find that robust phenotypes are (i) evolvable, (ii) easily identified by random mutation, and (iii) mutationally biased toward other robust phenotypes. We explore the implications of these latter observations for mutation-based evolution by conducting random walks between randomly chosen source and target phenotypes. We demonstrate that the time required to identify the target phenotype is independent of the properties of the source phenotype. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gene regulatory circuits drive the development, physiology, and behavior of organisms from bacteria to humans. The phenotypes or functions of such circuits are embodied in the gene expression patterns they form. Regulatory circuits are typically multifunctional, forming distinct gene expression patterns in different embryonic stages, tissues, or physiological states. Any one circuit with a single function can be realized by many different regulatory genotypes. Multifunctionality presumably constrains this number, but we do not know to what extent. We here exhaustively characterize a genotype space harboring millions of model regulatory circuits and all their possible functions. As a circuit's number of functions increases, the number of genotypes with a given number of functions decreases exponentially but can remain very large for a modest number of functions. However, the sets of circuits that can form any one set of functions becomes increasingly fragmented. As a result, historical contingency becomes widespread in circuits with many functions. Whether a circuit can acquire an additional function in the course of its evolution becomes increasingly dependent on the function it already has. Circuits with many functions also become increasingly brittle and sensitive to mutation. These observations are generic properties of a broad class of circuits and independent of any one circuit genotype or phenotype. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adaptive potential of nonheritable somatic mutations has received limited attention in traditional evolutionary theory because heritability is a fundamental pillar of Darwinian evolution. We hypothesized that the ability of a germline genotype to express a novel phenotype via nonheritable somatic mutations can be selectively advantageous and that this advantage will channel evolving populations toward germline genotypes that constitutively express the phenotype. We tested this hypothesis by simulating evolving populations of developing organisms with an impermeable germline-soma separation navigating a minimal fitness landscape. The simulations revealed the conditions under which nonheritable somatic mutations promote adaptation. Specifically, this can occur when the somatic mutation supply is high, when few cells with the advantageous somatic mutation are required to increase organismal fitness, and when the somatic mutation also confers a selective advantage at the cellular level. We therefore provide proof of principle that nonheritable somatic mutations can promote adaptive evolution via a process we call "somatic genotypic exploration." We discuss the biological plausibility of this phenomenon as well as its evolutionary implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) drive the cellular processes that sustain life. To do so reliably, GRNs must be robust to perturbations, such as gene deletion and the addition or removal of regulatory interactions. GRNs must also be robust to genetic changes in regulatory regions that define the logic of signal-integration, as these changes can affect how specific combinations of regulatory signals are mapped to particular gene expression states. Previous theoretical analyses have demonstrated that the robustness of a GRN is influenced by its underlying topological properties, such as degree distribution and modularity. Another important topological property is assortativity, which measures the propensity with which nodes of similar connectivity are connected to one another. How assortativity influences the robustness of the signal-integration logic of GRNs remains an open question. Here, we use computational models of GRNs to investigate this relationship. We separately consider each of the three dynamical regimes of this model for a variety of degree distributions. We find that in the chaotic regime, robustness exhibits a pronounced increase as assortativity becomes more positive, while in the critical and ordered regimes, robustness is generally less sensitive to changes in assortativity. We attribute the increased robustness to a decrease in the duration of the gene expression pattern, which is caused by a reduction in the average size of a GRN''s in-components. This study provides the first direct evidence that assortativity influences the robustness of the signal-integration logic of computational models of GRNs, illuminates a mechanistic explanation for this influence, and furthers our understanding of the relationship between topology and robustness in complex biological systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We derive analytic expressions for the possibility, probability, and expected size of global spreading events starting from a single infected seed for a broad collection of contagion processes acting on random networks with both directed and undirected edges and arbitrary degree-degree correlations. Our work extends previous theoretical developments for the undirected case, and we provide numerical support for our findings by investigating an example class of networks for which we are able to obtain closed-form expressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Dispersal modulates gene flow throughout a population''s spatial range. Gene flow affects adaptation at local spatial scales, and consequently impacts the evolution of reproductive isolation. A recent theoretical investigation has demonstrated that local adaptation along an environmental gradient, facilitated by the evolution of limited dispersal, can lead to parapatric speciation even in the absence of assortative mating. This and other studies assumed unconditional dispersal, so individuals start dispersing without regard to local environmental conditions. However, many species disperse conditionally; their propensity to disperse is contingent upon environmental cues, such as the degree of local crowding or the availability of suitable mates. Here, we use an individual-based model in continuous space to investigate by numerical simulation the relationship between the evolution of threshold-based conditional dispersal and parapatric speciation driven by frequency-dependent competition along environmental gradients. We find that, as with unconditional dispersal, parapatric speciation occurs under a broad range of conditions when reproduction is asexual, and under a more restricted range of conditions when reproduction is sexual. In both the asexual and sexual cases, the evolution of conditional dispersal is strongly influenced by the slope of the environmental gradient: shallow environmental gradients result in low dispersal thresholds and high dispersal distances, while steep environmental gradients result in high dispersal thresholds and low dispersal distances. The latter, however, remain higher than under unconditional dispersal, thus undermining isolation by distance, and hindering speciation in sexual populations. Consequently, the speciation of sexual populations under conditional dispersal is triggered by a steeper gradient than under unconditional dispersal. Enhancing the disruptiveness of frequency-dependent selection, more box-shaped competition kernels dramatically lower the speciation-enabling slope of the environmental gradient. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In complex adaptive systems, the topological properties of the interaction network are strong governing influences on the rate of flow of information throughout the system. For example, in epidemiological models, the structure of the underlying contact network has a pronounced impact on the rate of spread of infectious disease throughout a population. Similarly, in evolutionary systems, the topology of potential mating interactions (i.e., population structure) affects the rate of flow of genetic information and therefore affects selective pressure. One commonly employed method for quantifying selective pressure in evolutionary algorithms is through the analysis of the dynamics with which a single favorable mutation spreads throughout the population (a.k.a. takeover time analysis). While models of takeover dynamics have been previously derived for several specific regular population structures, these models lack generality. In contrast, so-called pair approximations have been touted as a general technique for rapidly approximating the flow of information in spatially structured populations with a constant (or nearly constant) degree of nodal connectivities, such as in epidemiological and ecological studies. In this work, we reformulate takeover time analysis in terms of the well-known Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible model of disease spread and adapt the pair approximation for takeover dynamics. Our results show that the pair approximation, as originally formulated, is insufficient for approximating pre-equibilibrium dynamics, since it does not properly account for the interaction between the size and shape of the local neighborhood and the population size. After parameterizing the pair approximation to account for these influences, we demonstrate that the resulting pair approximation can serve as a general and rapid approximator for takeover dynamics on a variety of spatially-explicit regular interaction topologies with varying population sizes and varying uptake and reversion probabilities. Strengths, limitations, and potential applications of the pair approximation to evolutionary computation are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding mechanisms for the evolution of barriers to gene flow within interbreeding populations continues to be a topic of great interest among evolutionary theorists. In this work, simulated evolving diploid populations illustrate how mild underdominance (heterozygote disadvantage) can be easily introduced at multiple loci in interbreeding populations through simultaneous or sequential mutational events at individual loci, by means of directional selection and simple forms of epistasis (non- linear gene-gene interactions). It is then shown how multiscale interactions (within-locus, between-locus, and betweenindividual) can cause interbreeding populations with multiple underdominant loci to self-organize into clusters of compatible genotypes, in some circumstances resulting in the emergence of reproductively isolated species. If external barriers to gene flow are also present, these can have a stabilizing effect on cluster boundaries and help to maintain underdominant polymorphisms, even when homozygotes have differential fitness. It is concluded that multiscale interactions can potentially help to maintain underdominant polymorphisms and may contribute to speciation events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The standard genetic code defines the rules of translation for nearly every life form on Earth. It also determines the amino acid changes accessible via single-nucleotide mutations, thus influencing protein evolvability—the ability of mutation to bring forth adaptive variation in protein function. One of the most striking features of the standard genetic code is its robustness to mutation, yet it remains an open question whether such robustness facilitates or frustrates protein evolvability. To answer this question, we use data from massively parallel sequence-to-function assays to construct and analyze 6 empirical adaptive landscapes under hundreds of thousands of rewired genetic codes, including those of codon compression schemes relevant to protein engineering and synthetic biology. We find that robust genetic codes tend to enhance protein evolvability by rendering smooth adaptive landscapes with few peaks, which are readily accessible from throughout sequence space. However, the standard genetic code is rarely exceptional in this regard, because many alternative codes render smoother landscapes than the standard code. By constructing low-dimensional visualizations of these landscapes, which each comprise more than 16 million mRNA sequences, we show that such alternative codes radically alter the topological features of the network of high-fitness genotypes. Whereas the genetic codes that optimize evolvability depend to some extent on the detailed relationship between amino acid sequence and protein function, we also uncover general design principles for engineering nonstandard genetic codes for enhanced and diminished evolvability, which may facilitate directed protein evolution experiments and the bio-containment of synthetic organisms, respectively. Only "one in a million" possible genetic codes are as robust as the standard genetic code, but does this robustness accelerate or impede adaptive evolution? This study uses experimental data from six massively parallel sequence-to-function assays for four proteins to show that robust genetic codes enhance protein evolvability by producing smooth adaptive landscapes with few peaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robustness, the maintenance of a character in the presence of genetic change, can help preserve adaptive traits but also may hinder evolvability, the ability to bring forth novel adaptations. We used genotype networks to analyze the binding site repertoires of 193 transcription factors from mice and yeast, providing empirical evidence that robustness and evolvability need not be conflicting properties. Network vertices represent binding sites where two sites are connected if they differ in a single nucleotide. We show that the binding sites of larger genotype networks are not only more robust, but the sequences adjacent to such networks can also bind more transcription factors, thus demonstrating that robustness can facilitate evolvability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gene regulatory circuits are to the cell what arithmetic logic units are to the chip: fundamental components of information processing that map an input onto an output. Gene regulatory circuits come in many different forms, distinct structural configurations that determine who regulates whom. Studies that have focused on the gene expression patterns (functions) of circuits with a given structure (form) have examined just a few structures or gene expression patterns. Here, we use a computational model to exhaustively characterize the gene expression patterns of nearly 17 million three-gene circuits in order to systematically explore the relationship between circuit form and function. Three main conclusions emerge. First, function does not follow form. A circuit of any one structure can have between twelve and nearly thirty thousand distinct gene expression patterns. Second, and conversely, form does not follow function. Most gene expression patterns can be realized by more than one circuit structure. And third, multifunctionality severely constrains circuit form. The number of circuit structures able to drive multiple gene expression patterns decreases rapidly with the number of these patterns. These results indicate that it is generally not possible to infer circuit function from circuit form, or vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article provides insights into gene regulatory networks and their role in controlling gene expression. It emphasizes the importance of understanding environment-dependent epistasis, which influences the spatiotemporal pattern phenotypes of gene regulatory networks, and highlights the potential implications for evolutionary adaptations and innovations.

Predicting evolutionary outcomes is an important research goal in a diversity of contexts. The focus of evolutionary forecasting is usually on adaptive processes, and efforts to improve prediction typically focus on selection. However, adaptive processes often rely on new mutations, which can be strongly influenced by predictable biases in mutation. Here, we provide an overview of existing theory and evidence for such mutation-biased adaptation and consider the implications of these results for the problem of prediction, in regard to topics such as the evolution of infectious diseases, resistance to biochemical agents, as well as cancer and other kinds of somatic evolution. We argue that empirical knowledge of mutational biases is likely to improve in the near future, and that this knowledge is readily applicable to the challenges of short-term prediction. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolutionary adaptation often occurs by the fixation of beneficial mutations. This mode of adaptation can be characterized quantitatively by a spectrum of adaptive substitutions, i.e., a distribution for types of changes fixed in adaptation. Recent work establishes that the changes involved in adaptation reflect common types of mutations, raising the question of how strongly the mutation spectrum shapes the spectrum of adaptive substitutions. We address this question with a codon-based model for the spectrum of adaptive amino acid substitutions, applied to three large datasets covering thousands of amino acid changes identified in natural and experimental adaptation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Escherichia coli, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Using speciesspecific mutation spectra based on prior knowledge, we find that the mutation spectrum has a proportional influence on the spectrum of adaptive substitutions in all three species. Indeed, we find that by inferring the mutation rates that best explain the spectrum of adaptive substitutions, we can accurately recover the species-specific mutation spectra. However, we also find that the predictive power of the model differs substantially between the three species. To better understand these differences, we use population simulations to explore the factors that influence how closely the spectrum of adaptive substitutions mirrors the mutation spectrum. The results show that the influence of the mutation spectrum decreases with increasing mutational supply (Nμ) and that predictive power is strongly affected by the number and diversity of beneficial mutations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) represent the interactions between genes and gene products, which drive the gene expression patterns that produce cellular phenotypes. GRNs display a number of characteristics that are beneficial for the development and evolution of organisms. For example, they are often robust to genetic perturbation, such as mutations in regulatory regions or loss of gene function. Simultaneously, GRNs are often evolvable as these genetic perturbations are occasionally exploited to innovate novel regulatory programs. Several topological properties, such as degree distribution, are known to influence the robustness and evolvability of GRNs. Assortativity, which measures the propensity of nodes of similar connectivity to connect to one another, is a separate topological property that has recently been shown to influence the robustness of GRNs to point mutations in cis-regulatory regions. However, it remains to be seen how assortativity may influence the robustness and evolvability of GRNs to other forms of genetic perturbation, such as gene birth via duplication or de novo origination. Here, we employ a computational model of genetic regulation to investigate whether the assortativity of a GRN influences its robustness and evolvability upon gene birth. We find that the robustness of a GRN generally increases with increasing assortativity, while its evolvability generally decreases. However, the rate of change in robustness outpaces that of evolvability, resulting in an increased proportion of assortative GRNs that are simultaneously robust and evolvable. By providing a mechanistic explanation for these observations, this work extends our understanding of how the assortativity of a GRN influences its robustness and evolvability upon gene birth. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

For a broad range of single-seed contagion processes acting on generalized random networks, we derive a unifying analytic expression for the possibility of global spreading events in a straightforward, physically intuitive fashion. Our reasoning lays bare a direct mechanical understanding of an archetypal spreading phenomena that is not evident in circuitous extant mathematical approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Recent advances in high‐throughput technologies are bringing the study of empirical genotype‐phenotype (GP) maps to the fore. Here, we use data from protein‐binding microarrays to study an empirical GP map of transcription factor (TF) ‐binding preferences. In this map, each genotype is a DNA sequence. The phenotype of this DNA sequence is its ability to bind one or more TFs. We study this GP map using genotype networks, in which nodes represent genotypes with the same phenotype, and edges connect nodes if their genotypes differ by a single small mutation. We describe the structure and arrangement of genotype networks within the space of all possible binding sites for 525 TFs from three eukaryotic species encompassing three kingdoms of life (animal, plant, and fungi). We thus provide a high‐resolution depiction of the architecture of an empirical GP map. Among a number of findings, we show that these genotype networks are “small‐world” and assortative, and that they ubiquitously overlap and interface with one another. We also use polymorphism data from Arabidopsis thaliana to show how genotype network structure influences the evolution of TF‐binding sites in vivo. We discuss our findings in the context of regulatory evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]