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Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction in boreal spring and summer months, which contains a significant number of high-signal events, is scientifically challenging and prediction skill has remained poor for years. Tibetan Plateau (TP) spring observed surface ­temperatures show a lag correlation with summer precipitation in several remote regions, but current global land–atmosphere coupled models are unable to represent this behavior due to significant errors in producing observed TP surface temperatures. To address these issues, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program launched the “Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction” (LS4P) initiative as a community effort to test the impact of land temperature in high-mountain regions on S2S prediction by climate models: more than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this project. After using an innovative new land state initialization approach based on observed surface 2-m temperature over the TP in the LS4P experiment, results from a multimodel ensemble provide evidence for a causal relationship in the observed association between the Plateau spring land temperature and summer precipitation over several regions across the world through teleconnections. The influence is underscored by an out-of-phase oscillation between the TP and Rocky Mountain surface temperatures. This study reveals for the first time that high-mountain land temperature could be a substantial source of S2S precipitation predictability, and its effect is probably as large as ocean surface temperature over global “hotspot” regions identified here; the ensemble means in some “hotspots” produce more than 40% of the observed anomalies. This LS4P approach should stimulate more follow-on explorations.

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/). The effect of the interface stiffness and interface strength on the low-velocity impact response of woven-fabric semicylindrical composite shells is studied using finite element (FE) models generated with continuum shell elements and cohesive surfaces. The intralaminar damage is accounted for using the constitutive model provided within the ABAQUS software, while the interlaminar is addressed utilising cohesive surfaces. The results show that the interface stiffness has a negligible effect on the force and energy histories for values between 101 N/mm3 and 2.43 × 106 N/mm3 . However, it has a significant impact on the delamination predictions. It is observed that only the normal interface strength affects the maximum impact force and the delamination predictions. Increasing its value from 15 MPa to 30 MPa resulted in an 8% growth in the maximum force, and a substantial reduction in the delaminated area. The obtained results serve as guidelines for the accurate and efficient computation of delamination. The successful validation of the FE models establishes a solid foundation for further numerical investigations and offers the potential to significantly reduce the time and expenses associated with experimental testing.

This paper presents an efficient and reliable approach to study the low-velocity impact response of woven composite shells using 3D finite element models that account for the physical intralaminar and interlaminar progressive damage. The authors’ previous work on the experimental assessment of the effect of thickness on the impact response of semicylindrical composite laminated shells served as the basis for this paper. Therefore, the finite element models were put to the test in comparison to the experimental findings. A good agreement was obtained between the numerical predictions and experimental data for the load and energy histories as well as for the maximum impact load, maximum displacement, and contact time. The use of the mass-scaling technique was successfully implemented, reducing considerably the computing cost of the solutions. The maximum load, maximum displacement, and contact time are negligibly affected by the choice of finite element mesh discretization. However, it has an impact on the initiation and progression of interlaminar damage. Therefore, to accurately compute delamination, its correct definition is of upmost importance. The validation of these finite element models opens the possibility for further numerical studies on of woven composite shells and enables shortening the time and expenses associated with the experimental testing. Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia UIDB/00285/2020 LA/P/0112/2020.

Nowadays, composite materials are increasingly used in the most diverse areas of engineering, where non-planar geometries begin to be quite frequent. However, the existing knowledge about its mechanical performance is still not enough for structural applications. Therefore, experimental tests were carried out to study the thickness effect on static compression and multi-impact response of laminated E-glass/Polyester semicylindrical shells. For this purpose, specimen with thicknesses of 1.1 mm, 1.6 mm and 2.1 mm (corresponding to 6, 9 and 12 woven fabric layers) were considered. In terms of static response, higher thicknesses are responsible for higher compressive strength and stiffness, reaching, in the first case, differences of 252.6 % between the thinnest and thickest shells. Regarding the multi-impact response, the impact fatigue life increases 17.4 times for the analysed thickness range, which can be explained by the different damage mechanisms observed. It was observed that impact damage becomes more localized with increasing thickness, because the energy is dissipated by more interfaces.

An expressive number of scientific publications including the recent IPCC-AR6 report have warned about the effects of the ongoing and the projected climate change in the northern high latitudes as response to CO2 forcing. Here we investigate the response of the Arctic region to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration using the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA2.5) and other three state-of-the-art Global Climate Model from the CMIP5 project. We evaluated the Arctic climate sensitivity through the Polar amplification using two numerical experiments: (i) piControl numerical experiment and (ii) abrupt 4xCO2. Our results showed that the northern high latitudes are described as the most climatically sensitive areas of the world, with strongest warming occurring in winter (DJF) and autumn (SON). The Arctic climate sensitivity is linked to changes in sea ice extent and sea ice thickness. Considering this scenario, it is expected that the Arctic will become ice-free in summer time and covered only by first-year-sea ice in the remaining months. We suggest that the projected sea ice albedo feedback will reinforce the Arctic warming with lack of understanding effects beyond the Arctic region.

During the last quarter of 2019, the beaches, mangroves, and estuaries of Northeast Brazil received an unprecedented volume of crude oil from the sea, which became the worst environmental disaster ever to reach the Brazilian coast. The oil, having reached the shores completely unnoticed, left both society and government agents completely clueless on (i) where the oil was coming from; (ii) how much oil was still in the ocean to reach the shorelines; and (iii) which beaches were going to be affected next! By exploring remote sensing data and ocean numerical modeling, along with oil dispersion chemistry on sea water, this study investigates the possible origin and path of the spill and whether it could have been detected from space. The oil dispersion modeling simulations performed for this investigation revealed a possible region and timing of the oil spill, also indicating the likelihood of it being advected toward the shoreline under the ocean surface.

BackgroundMatch analysis has evolved exponentially over the past decades in team sports resulting in a significant number of published systematic reviews and meta-analyses. An umbrella review of the available literature is needed to provide an integrated overview of current knowledge and contribute to more robust theoretical explanations of team performance.MethodsThe Web of Science (all databases), PubMed, Cochrane Library (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews), Scopus, and SPORTDiscus databases were searched for relevant publications prior to 19 February 2021. Appraisal of the methodological quality of included articles was undertaken using the tool for Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR-2). Twenty-four studies were reviewed that met the following criteria: (1) contained relevant data from match analyses in team ball sports; (2) were defined as systematic reviews or/and meta-analyses; and (3) were written in the English language.ResultsThe overall methodological quality of the 24 included reviews, obtained through the AMSTAR-2, revealed very low confidence ratings (Critically Low,n = 12) for the results of most systematic reviews of match analyses in team ball sports. Additionally, the results showed that research is focused mainly on four levels of analysis: (1) dyadic (microlevel); (2) individual (molecular level; predominant); (3) group (mesolevel), and (4) team dynamics (macrolevel). These levels of analysis included tactical, technical, physical, and psychosocial variables. Team performance was contextualized at two levels, with reference to: (1) match context (e.g. match status, match location, match period, quality of opposition) and (2) sociodemographic and environmental constraints (sex, age groups, competitive level, altitude, temperature, pitch surface).ConclusionsThe evolution of methods for match analysis in team ball sports indicates that: (1) an individual-level performance analysis was predominant; (2) the focus on intermediate levels of analysis, observing performance in dyadic and group interactions, has received less attention from researchers; (3) neglected areas of research include psychosocial aspects of team sports and women’s performance; and (4) analyses of match contexts need greater depth.Registration: The protocol was registered in the International Platform of Registered Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols with the number 202080067 and the DOI numberhttps://doi.org/10.37766/inplasy2020.8.0067.

The numerical climate simulations from the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) are used here to investigate the response of the polar regions to a forced increase in CO2 (Abrupt-4×CO2) and compared with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6) simulations. The main objective here is to investigate the seasonality of the surface and vertical warming as well as the coupled processes underlying the polar amplification, such as changes in sea ice cover. Polar regions are described as the most climatically sensitive areas of the globe, with an enhanced warming occurring during the cold seasons. The asymmetry between the two poles is related to the thermal inertia and the coupled ocean–atmosphere processes involved. While at the northern high latitudes the amplified warming signal is associated with a positive snow– and sea ice–albedo feedback, for southern high latitudes the warming is related to a combination of ozone depletion and changes in the wind pattern. The numerical experiments conducted here demonstrated very clear evidence of seasonality in the polar amplification response as well as linkage with sea ice changes. In winter, for the northern high latitudes (southern high latitudes), the range of simulated polar warming varied from 10 to 39 K (−0.5 to 13 K). In summer, for northern high latitudes (southern high latitudes), the simulated warming varies from 0 to 23 K (0.5 to 14 K). The vertical profiles of air temperature indicated stronger warming at the surface, particularly for the Arctic region, suggesting that the albedo–sea ice feedback overlaps with the warming caused by meridional transport of heat in the atmosphere. The latitude of the maximum warming was inversely correlated with changes in the sea ice within the model's control run. Three climate models were identified as having high polar amplification for the Arctic cold season (DJF): IPSL-CM6A-LR (CMIP6), HadGEM2-ES (CMIP5) and CanESM5 (CMIP6). For the Antarctic, in the cold season (JJA), the climate models identified as having high polar amplification were IPSL-CM6A-LR (CMIP6), CanESM5(CMIP6) and FGOALS-s2 (CMIP5). The large decrease in sea ice concentration is more evident in models with great polar amplification and for the same range of latitude (75–90∘ N). Also, we found, for models with enhanced warming, expressive changes in the sea ice annual amplitude with outstanding ice-free conditions from May to December (EC-Earth3-Veg) and June to December (HadGEM2-ES). We suggest that the large bias found among models can be related to the differences in each model to represent the feedback process and also as a consequence of each distinct sea ice initial condition. The polar amplification phenomenon has been observed previously and is expected to become stronger in the coming decades. The consequences for the atmospheric and ocean circulation are still subject to intense debate in the scientific community.

We used climate models to assess the effects of 2 distinct anthropogenic forcings on the water budget in the Amazon basin: (1) increasing global greenhouse gases under the RCP8.5 scenario, and (2) land cover change caused by deforestation. The Eta regional climate model, driven by the Brazilian Earth System Model version 2.5 (BESM 2.5), was used to simulate the climate response under the RCP8.5 scenario and due to deforestation throughout the 21st century. Changes in energy and water budgets led to an increase in temperature that reached 5°C throughout the basin. In the RCP8.5 scenario, moisture convergence, precipitation and evapotranspiration all decreased. In this scenario, the positive feedback mechanism was predominant, as the reductions in evapotranspiration and moisture convergence acted in the same direction to reduce precipitation. In the future deforestation scenarios, reductions in precipitation were even stronger. In this case, the negative feedback mechanism predominated, in which the relative reduction in evapotranspiration was greater than the reduction in precipitation, leading to an increase in moisture convergence over the region. Changes in temperature and the water cycle were intensified in the future deforestation scenarios. These results show that the 2 anthropogenic factors can change the water budget and cause an imbalance in the climate-biome system in the Amazon basin, highlighting the need for public conservation policies to halt the increase in environmental degradation in the Amazon basin and to reduce greenhouse gases emissions due the burning of fossil fuels.

The achievement of good productivity and quality of fruits is directly associated with a balanced fertilization, in which phosphate fertilizers have an important role in the agricultural production system. In this context, this work aimed to evaluate the effect of doses of monoammonium phosphate in ground fertilization and associated with the topdressing in the production of the Formosa “Tainung-01” papaya. The experimental design was in complete randomized blocks, in an split plots outline, having as main factor four fertilizer doses in ground fertilization (0; 80; 160, and 250 kg ha-1 of monoammonium phosphate [MAP]) and, as a sub-portion, two fertilizers in topdressing (20 kg ha-1 of Cosmofert® + 45 kg ha-1 of MAP” and “90 kg ha-1 of MAP). The harvesting began in the eighth month and extended until the 12th month after transplanting of the seedlings. All fruits of five plants per experimental unit were collected and classified. The number of fruits, the production per plant, the yield, and the percentage of marketable fruits were evaluated. The ground fertilization with the monoammonium phosphate did not influence the production of Formosa 'Tainung-01' papaya fruits exclusively destined to the domestic market. When the production is destined to the external market, a dosage of 74.0 kg ha-1 of monoammonium phosphate can be used in ground fertilization.

Destabilization of the water cycle threatens human lives and livelihoods. Meanwhile our understanding of whether and how changes in vegetation cover could trigger abrupt transitions in moisture regimes remains incomplete. This challenge calls for better evidence as well as for the theoretical concepts to describe it. Here we briefly summarise the theoretical questions surrounding the role of vegetation cover in the dynamics of a moist atmosphere. We discuss the previously unrecognized sensitivity of local wind power to condensation rate as revealed by our analysis of the continuity equation for a gas mixture. Using the framework of condensation-induced atmospheric dynamics, we then show that with the temperature contrast between land and ocean increasing up to a critical threshold, ocean-to-land moisture transport reaches a tipping point where it can stop or even reverse. Land-ocean temperature contrasts are affected by both global and regional processes, in particular, by the surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat that are strongly influenced by vegetation. Our results clarify how a disturbance of natural vegetation cover, e.g., by deforestation, can disrupt large-scale atmospheric circulation and moisture transport. In view of the increasing pressure on natural ecosystems, successful strategies of mitigating climate change require taking into account the impact of vegetation on moist atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides a theoretical framework to assess this impact. The available data for Eurasia indicate that the observed climatological land-ocean temperature contrasts are close to the threshold. This can explain the increasing fluctuations in the continental water cycle including droughts and floods and signifies a yet greater potential importance for large-scale forest conservation., 25 pages, 5 figures, and 1 table

One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting processes. An equivalent albeit less studied phenomenon occurs in Antarctica. Here, we used numerical climate simulations obtained from CMIP5 and CMIP6 to investigate the effects of +1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming thresholds for sea ice changes and polar amplification. Our results show robust patterns of near-surface air-temperature response to global warming at high latitudes. The year in which the average air temperatures brought from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models rises by 1.5 °C is 2024. An average rise of 2 °C (3 °C) global warming occurs in 2042 (2063). The equivalent warming at northern (southern) high latitudes under scenarios of 1.5 °C global warming is about 3 °C (1.8 °C). In scenarios of 3 °C global warming, the equivalent warming in the Arctic (Antarctica) is close to 7 °C (3.5 °C). Ice-free conditions are found in all warming thresholds for both the Arctic and Antarctica, especially from the year 2030 onwards.

Resumo Simulações climáticas para o clima presente (1960-2005) utilizando o Modelo Climático Regional Eta e o Modelo Hidrológico de Grandes Bacias (MGB), forçado com o Brazilian Earth System Model Ocean-Atmosphere (BESM-AO 2.5) foram realizadas. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o desempenho do Modelo Regional Eta e o Modelo Hidrológico de Grandes Bacias (MGB) na representação dos componentes do balanço de água (precipitação, evapotranspiração, convergência de umidade, vazão, cota e área de inundação) sobre a bacia do rio Madeira. A característica de sumidouro de umidade (P > E) foi simulada pelo modelo regional. Entretanto, o modelo subestimou a precipitação (33%), a evapotranspiração (12%) e a convergência de umidade (6%). O MGB-IPH conseguiu representar o ciclo anual das vazões, níveis do rio (cota) e área de inundação. Também conseguiu reproduzir a translação e amplitude das ondas de cheia, e o atraso de 3 meses entre os máximos da área de inundação e a precipitação sobre a bacia do Madeira. O MGB-IPH mostrou-se uma ferramenta útil para estudos de variabilidade climática, mudanças no clima e no uso da terra, e também para sistemas operacionais de previsão hidrológica na bacia Amazônica. Abstract Downscaling climate simulation for present climate (1960-2005) based on the Eta Regional Climate Model and MGB Large-scale Hydrological Model, forced by Brazilian Model of the Terrestrial System (BESM-AO 2.5), was carried out. The objective of this work is assessment the performance of the Eta regional model and MGB-IPH in the representation of the components of the water budget in Madeira River basin. The moisture sink characteristic (P> E) was simulated by the regional model. In the terrestrial branch, the MGB-IPH hydrological model was able to represent the annual cycle of discharge, water level and floodplain inundation. The performance of the hydrological model and the regional model was satisfactory in the simulation of the seasonal dynamics of hydrological processes and water budget in Madeira river basin, indicating that the hydrological model is a useful tool for studies of climatic variability, changes in climate and land use and for hydrological forecasting operational systems in the Amazon basin.

Purpose This study aims to exploit the abundance of solar energy resources for socioeconomic development in the semi -arid Northeastern Brazil as a potent adaptation tool to global climate change. It points out a set of conjuncture factors that allow us to foresee a new paradigm of sustainable development for the region by transforming the sun’s radiant energy into electricity through distributed photovoltaic generation. The new paradigm, as presented in this essay, has the transformative potential to free the region from past regional development dogma, which was dependent on the scarce water resource, and the marginal and predatory use of its Caatinga Biome. Design/methodology/approach The research uses a pre ante design, following the procedures of scenario building, as an adaptation mechanism to climate change in the sector of energy generation and socioeconomic inclusion. Findings The scenarios of socioeconomic resilience to climate change based on the abundance of solar radiation, rather than the scarcity of water, demonstrates its potential as a global adaptation paradigm to climate change. Research limitations/implications The developments proposed are dependent on federal legislation changes, allowing the small producer to be remunerated by the energy produced. Practical implications The proposed smart grid photovoltaic generation program increases the country's resiliency to the effect of droughts and climate change. Social implications As proposed, the program allows for the reversion of a pattern of long term poverty in semi-arid Northeast Brazil. Originality/value The exploitation of the characteristics of abundance of the semiarid climate, i.e. its very condition of semi-aridity with abundant solar radiation, is itself an advantage factor toward adaption to unforeseen drought events. Extensive previous research has focused on weighting and monitoring drought i.e. the paradigm of scarcity. The interplay between exploiting Northeast Brazil’s abundant factors and climate change adaptation, especially at the small farmer levels constitutes a discovery never before contemplated.

Information on the effects of climate conditions on the survival of species grown in semi-arid regions is essential and at the same time scarce, especially regarding rustic species such as West Indian gherkin (Cucumis anguria L.). Thus, this study aimed to evaluate germination, growth and biochemical alterations in C. anguria seeds under water stress and different temperature regimes. The experimental design was completely randomized, in 5 x 5 factorial scheme, composed of five osmotic potentials (0.0; -0.1; -0.2; -0.3 and -0.4 MPa) and four temperatures (20; 25; 30 °C and alternating temperatures of 20-30 ºC), with each treatment composed of four replicates of 50 seeds. The seeds were sown on paper towel (Germitest®) and germinated in Biochemical Oxygen Demand (B.O.D.) germinators, under 8-h photoperiod. Germination percentage, germination speed index, mean time of germination, seedling length and contents of chlorophylls, carotenoids, proline, free amino acids and free sugars were determined along the experiment. Decrease in osmotic potential reduced germination, growth and contents of chloroplast pigments of C. anguria seedlings, but was more drastic at levels lower than -0.2 MPa. Low temperatures intensify the effects of water stress on the germination of C. anguria seeds. The synthesis of protecting osmolytes increased in C. anguria seedlings but these components did not promote efficient osmotic adjustment in their initial development stage. RESUMO As informações sobre os efeitos das condições climáticas na sobrevivência de espécies cultivadas em regiões semiáridas são imprescindíveis e, ainda, escassas, principalmente em se tratando de espécies rústicas como o maxixe (Cucumis anguria L.). Com isso, objetivou-se avaliar a germinação, crescimento e alterações bioquímicas em sementes de C. anguria sob estresse hídrico em diferentes regimes de temperaturas. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o inteiramente casualizado, em esquema fatorial 5 x 5, constituído de cinco potenciais osmóticos (0,0; -0,1; -0,2; -0,3; -0,4 MPa) e quatro temperaturas (20; 25; 30 °C e alternada 20-30 ºC), com cada tratamento composto por quatro repetições de 50 sementes. As sementes foram semeadas em papel toalha (Germitest®) e colocadas para germinar em germinadores do tipo Biochemical Oxygen Demand (B.O.D.), com fotoperíodo de oito horas de luz. Durante a condução do experimento, determinou-se a percentagem de germinação, índice de velocidade de germinação, tempo médio de germinação, comprimento das plântulas, teores de clorofilas e carotenoides, teores de prolina, aminoácidos livres e açúcares livres. A redução do potencial osmótico diminuiu a germinação, o crescimento e o teor de pigmentos cloroplastídicos das plântulas de C. anguria, porém sendo mais drástica em níveis inferiores a -0,2 MPa. As baixas temperaturas potencializaram os efeitos do estresse hídrico na germinação de sementes de C. anguria. Ocorreu aumento da síntese de osmólitos protetores em plântulas de C. anguria, porém estes não promoveram ajuste osmótico eficiente na fase inicial de desenvolvimento da plântula.

Here we respond to Jaramillo et al.’s recent critique of condensation-induced atmospheric dynamics (CIAD). We show that CIAD is consistent with Newton’s laws while Jaramillo et al.’s analysis is invalid. To address implied objections, we explain our different formulations of “evaporative force.” The essential concept of CIAD is condensation’s role in powering atmospheric circulation. We briefly highlight why this concept is necessary and useful.