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Remarkable advances in the management of coronary artery disease have enhanced our approach to left main coronary artery (LMCA) disease. The traditional role of coronary artery bypass graft surgery has been challenged by the less invasive percutaneous coronary interventional approach. Additionally, major strides in optimal medical therapy now provide a rich menu of treatment choices in selected circumstances. Although a LMCA stenosis >70% is an acceptable threshold for revascularization, those patients with a LMCA narrowing between 40 and 69% present a more complex scenario. This review examines the relative merits of the different treatment options, addresses key diagnostic and therapeutic unknowns, and identifies future work likely to advance progress.

Patients with heart failure (HF) and a reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) who experience worsening HF (WHF) events are at increased risk of adverse outcomes and experience significant morbidity and mortality. We herein describe the epidemiology of these patients and identify those potentially eligible for vericiguat therapy in this population-based study.This retrospective cohort study included hospitalized or emergency department patients with a primary diagnosis of HF and a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of less than 45% diagnosed between April 1, 2009, and March 31, 2019 in Alberta, Canada, with follow-up to March 31, 2020. Inclusion criteria from the VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection (VICTORIA) trial were applied to explore eligibility for vericiguat. Among 25,629 patients with HF and LVEF data, 9948 (38.8%) had HFrEF, of which 5259 (52.8%) experienced WHF at some point during a median 5.8 years of follow-up, and 38.3% of those met the vericiguat trial eligibility criteria. Compared with patients with HFrEF without WHF, those with WHF were older, with more comorbidities, worse renal function, and similar LVEF status, but greater use of HF medications at baseline. At the time of WHF, 27% of those with HFrEF and WHF were on triple therapy, 50.6% were on dual therapy, and 15.4% were on monotherapy. All-cause mortality and the composite outcome of all-cause mortality or cardiovascular hospitalization at 1-year of follow-up were higher in the HFrEF with WHF cohort compared with HFrEF without WHF (adjusted hazard ratios of 1.92 and 1.51, respectively, both P.0001).Approximately one-half of patients with HFrEF experienced WHF over the long-term follow-up. Most were not on triple therapy, highlighting the underuse of the existing standard-of-care treatments and opportunities for application of newer therapies; more than one-third of patients with HFrEF may be eligible for vericiguat.Among patients with heart failure (HF), those who experience worsening HF (WHF) are at increased risk of adverse outcomes. A few new therapies, including vericiguat, have emerged recently for patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction. However, the epidemiology, treatment patterns, and outcomes of patients with WHF in large representative populations is unclear. In the current study, approximately one-half of the patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction experienced WHF and 38.3% were potentially eligible for vericiguat therapy. The guideline-recommended therapies were under-utilized among patients with WHF, which highlights the need for initiatives to address this care gap.

For patients hospitalized for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), guidelines recommend optimization of medical therapy prior to discharge. The degree to which changes in medical therapy occur during hospitalizations for HFrEF in North American clinical practice is unclear.The VICTORIA registry (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction) enrolled patients hospitalized for worsening chronic HFrEF across 51 sites in the United States and Canada from February 2018-January 2019. In patients with complete medication data who were not receiving dialysis, use and dose of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI)/angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB), angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI), beta-blocker, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA), and sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) were assessed at admission and discharge.Of 1695 patients, the median (IQR) age was 69 (59-79) years, and 33% were women. Among eligible patients, 33%, 25% and 55% were not prescribed ACEI/ARB/ARNI, beta-blocker, and MRA at discharge, respectively; 99% were not prescribed SGLT2i. For each medication,50% of patients remained on stable subtarget doses or no medication during hospitalization. In-hospital rates of initiation/dose increase were 20% for ACEI/ARB, 4% for ARNI, 20% for beta-blocker, 22% for MRA, and1% for SGLT2i; corresponding rates of dose decrease/discontinuation were 11%, 2%, 9%, 5%, and1%, respectively. Overall, 17% and 28% of eligible patients were prescribed triple therapy prior to admission and at discharge, respectively. At both admission and discharge, 1% of patients were prescribed triple therapy at target doses. Across classes of medication, multiple factors were independently associated with higher likelihood of in-hospital initiation/dosing increase (eg, Canadian enrollment, white race, admission to intensive care units) and discontinuation/dosing decrease (eg, worse renal function, admission to intensive care units).In this contemporary North American registry of patients hospitalized for worsening chronic HFrEF, for each recommended medical therapy, the large majority of eligible patients remained on stable subtarget doses or without medication at admission and discharge. Although most patients had no alterations in medical therapy, hospitalization in Canada and multiple patient characteristics were associated with higher likelihood of favorable in-hospital medication changes.

Background: We examined the effects of vericiguat compared with placebo in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction enrolled in VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction) on health status outcomes measured by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) and evaluated whether clinical outcomes varied by baseline KCCQ score. Methods: KCCQ was completed at baseline and 4, 16, and 32 weeks. We assessed treatment effect on KCCQ using a mixed-effects model adjusting for baseline KCCQ and stratification variables. Cox proportional-hazards modeling was performed to evaluate the effect of vericiguat on clinical outcomes by tertiles of baseline KCCQ clinical summary score (CSS), total symptom score (TSS), and overall summary score (OSS). Results: Of 5050 patients, 4664, 4741, and 4470 had KCCQ CSS (median [25th to 75th], 65.6 [45.8–81.8]), TSS (68.8 [47.9–85.4]), and OSS (59.9 [42.0–77.1]) at baseline; 94%, 88%, and 82% had data at 4, 16, and 32 weeks. At 16 weeks, CSS improved by a median of 6.3 in both arms; no significant differences in improvement were seen for TSS and OSS between the 2 groups ( P =0.69, 0.97, and 0.13 for CSS, TSS, and OSS). Trends were similar at 4 and 32 weeks. Vericiguat versus placebo reduced cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization risk similarly across tertiles of baseline KCCQ CSS, TSS, and OSS (interaction P =0.13, 0.21, and 0.65). Conclusions: Vericiguat did not significantly improve KCCQ scores compared with placebo. Vericiguat reduced the risk of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization across the range of baseline health status. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT02861534.

Aims: Coronary artery disease (CAD) portends worse outcomes in heart failure (HF). We aimed to characterize patients with CAD and worsening HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and evaluate post hoc whether vericiguat treatment effect varied according to CAD.Methods and results: Cox proportional hazards were generated for the primary endpoint of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization (CVD/HFH). CAD was defined as previous myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, or coronary artery bypass grafting. Of 5048 patients in VICTORIA with available data on CAD status, 2704 had CAD and were older, were more frequently male, diabetic, and had a lower glomerular filtration rate than those without CAD (all p Conclusion: In this post hoc study, CAD was associated with more CVD and HFH in patients with HFrEF and worsening HF. Vericiguat was beneficial and safe regardless of concomitant CAD.

Early prediction of significant morbidity or mortality in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) represents an unmet clinical need. In phenotypically matched population of 139 STEMI patients (72 cases, 67 controls) treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention, we explored associations between a 24-h relative change from baseline in the concentration of 91 novel biomarkers and the composite outcome of death, heart failure, or shock within 90 days. Additionally, we used random forest models to predict the 90-day outcomes. After adjustment for false discovery rate, the 90-day composite was significantly associated with concentration changes in 14 biomarkers involved in various pathophysiologic processes including: myocardial fibrosis/remodeling (collagen alpha-1, cathepsin Z, metalloproteinase inhibitor 4, protein tyrosine phosphatase subunits), inflammation, angiogenesis and signaling (interleukin 1 and 2 subunits, growth differentiation factor 15, galectin 4, trefoil factor 3), bone/mineral metabolism (osteoprotegerin, matrix extracellular phosphoglycoprotein and tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase), thrombosis (tissue factor pathway inhibitor) and cholesterol metabolism (LDL-receptor). Random forest models suggested an independent association when inflammatory markers are included in models predicting the outcomes within 90 days. Substantial heterogeneity is apparent in the early proteomic responses among patients with acutely reperfused STEMI patients who develop death, heart failure or shock within 90 days. These findings suggest the need to consider synergistic multi-biomarker strategies for risk stratification and to inform future development of novel post-myocardial infarction therapies.

Background: Data are limited data on the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and multimorbidity in contemporary cohorts of high-cost users (HCUs) in Canada.We examined the following: (i) the prevalence of CVD, with a comparison of total healthcare costs among HCUs with vs without CVD; (ii) the contribution of other comorbidities to costs among HCUs with CVD; and (iii) the trajectory of healthcare costs in the years before and after becoming an HCU. Methods: The study included adult Alberta patients in the Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canadian Institute for Health Information Dynamic Cohort of Complex, High System Users from 2011-2012 through 2014-2015. We examined total healthcare costs, including hospital, ambulatory care, physician services, and drugs. Results: Among 88,536 HCUs, 23.4% had no CVD, 28.9% were hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of CVD, and 47.7% were hospitalized with a secondary diagnosis of CVD. Total healthcare costs were $2.0 billion (20.4% non-hospital costs), $2.8 billion (24.1% non-hospital costs), and $4.9 billion (19.8% non-hospital costs), respectively, in the 3 groups. Many HCUs with CVD were frail (74.2%) and many had diabetes (33.8%) or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (27.9%), which contributed to higher costs and mortality. Healthcare expenditures in HCUs with CVD were several times higher than per capita health expenditures in the years prior to, and following, their inclusion in the dynamic HCU cohort. Conclusions: CVD is very common in HCUs of healthcare. HCUs with CVD have high rates of frailty and multimorbidity. Further research is needed to identify and intervene earlier, in order to flatten the cost curve in these complex patients. Résumé: Introduction: Les données sur la prévalence des maladies cardiovasculaires (MCV) et de la multimorbidité au sein des cohortes contemporaines de grands utilisateurs (GU) du Canada sont limitées. Nous avons examiné ce qui suit : (i) la prévalence des MCV en comparant les coûts totaux des soins de santé entre les GU atteints de MCV et les GU non atteints de MCV; (ii) la contribution des autres comorbidités aux coûts liés aux GU atteints de MCV; (iii) la trajectoire des coûts des soins de santé dans les années avant et après avoir été considérés comme un GU. Méthodes: L’étude portait sur des patients adultes de l’Alberta de la Cohorte dynamique de grands utilisateurs du système de santé aux besoins complexes de 2011-2012 à 2014-2015 des Instituts de recherche en santé du Canada et de l’Institut canadien d’information sur la santé. Nous avons examiné les coûts totaux des soins de santé, notamment les coûts hospitaliers, les coûts des soins ambulatoires, des services médicaux et des médicaments. Résultats: Parmi les 88 536 GU, 23,4 % n’avaient pas de MCV, 28,9 % étaient hospitalisés et avaient un diagnostic principal de MCV, et 47,7 % étaient hospitalisés et avaient un diagnostic secondaire de MCV. Les coûts totaux des soins de santé des 3 groupes étaient respectivement de 2,0 G$ (20,4 % de coûts non hospitaliers), 2,8 G$ (24,1 % de coûts non hospitaliers) et 4,9 G$ (19,8 % de coûts non hospitaliers). Plusieurs GU atteints de MCV étaient fragiles (74,2 %) et beaucoup avaient le diabète (33,8 %) ou une maladie pulmonaire obstructive chronique (27,9 %), qui contribuaient à des coûts et à une mortalité plus élevés. Les dépenses de santé par personne liées aux GU atteints de MCV étaient beaucoup plus élevées que les dépenses de santé par personne dans les années qui précédaient ou suivaient leur inclusion dans la cohorte dynamique de GU atteints de MCV. Conclusions: Les GU de soins de santé sont très fréquemment atteints de MCV. Les GU atteints de MCV présentent des taux de fragilité et de multimorbidité élevés. D’autres recherches sont nécessaires pour cerner et intervenir plus tôt afin d’aplatir la courbe des coûts chez ces patients aux besoins complexes.

Background: In the VICTORIA trial (Vericiguat Global Study in Patients with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction), anemia occurred more often in patients treated with vericiguat (7.6%) than with placebo (5.7%). We explored the association between vericiguat, randomization hemoglobin, development of anemia, and whether the benefit of vericiguat related to baseline hemoglobin. Methods: Anemia was defined as hemoglobin Results: At baseline, 1719 (35.7%) patients had World Health Organization anemia; median hemoglobin was 13.4 g/L (25th, 75th percentile: 12.1, 14.7 g/dL). At 16 weeks from randomization, 1643 patients had World Health Organization anemia (284 new for vericiguat and 219 for placebo), which occurred more often with vericiguat than placebo ( P Conclusions: Anemia was common at randomization and lower hemoglobin was associated with a greater frequency of clinical events. Although vericiguat modestly lowered hemoglobin by 16 weeks, this effect did not further progress nor was it related to the treatment benefit of vericiguat. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov : Unique identifier: NCT02861534.

Background: The prediction of outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) may inform prognosis, clinical decisions regarding treatment selection, and new trial planning. The VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction included high-risk patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction and a recent worsening HF event. The study participants had a high event rate despite the use of contemporary guideline-based therapies. To provide generalizable predictive data for a broad population with a recent worsening HF event, we focused on risk prognostication in the placebo group.Methods and Results: Data from 2524 participants randomized to placebo with chronic HF (New York Heart Association functional class II–IV) and an ejection fraction of less than 45% were studied and backward variable selection was used to create Cox proportional hazards models for clinical end points, selecting from 66 candidate predictors. Final model results were produced, accounting for missing data, and nonlinearities. Optimism-corrected c-indices were calculated using 200 bootstrap samples. Over a median follow-up of 10.4 months, the primary outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death occurred in 972 patients (38.5%). Independent predictors of increased risk for the primary end point included HF characteristics (longer HF duration and worse New York Heart Association functional class), medical history (prior myocardial infarction), and laboratory values (higher N-terminal pro-hormone B-type natriuretic peptide, bilirubin, urate; lower chloride and albumin). Optimism-corrected c-indices were 0.68 for the HF hospitalization/cardiovascular death model, 0.68 for HF hospitalization/all-cause death, 0.72 for cardiovascular death, and 0.73 for all-cause death.Conclusions: Predictive models developed in a large diverse clinical trial with comprehensive clinical and laboratory baseline data—including novel measures—performed well in high-risk patients with HF who were receiving excellent guideline-based clinical care.Clinical Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier, NCT02861534.Lay Summary: Patients with heart failure may benefit from tools that help clinicians to better understand a patient's risk for future events like hospitalization. Relatively few risk models have been created after the worsening of heart failure in a contemporary cohort. We provide insights on the risk factors for clinical events from a recent, large, global trial of patients with worsening heart failure to help clinicians better understand and communicate prognosis and select treatment options.

Aims Vericiguat reduced the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization in patients with worsening HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and a lower limit of baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 15 mL/min/1.73 m2. We evaluated the relationship between the efficacy of vericiguat and baseline and subsequent changes in renal function. Methods and results In VICTORIA, core laboratory serum creatinine was measured at baseline (n = 4956) and weeks 16, 32, and 48. Worsening renal function (WRF), defined as an increase ≥0.3 mg/dL in creatinine from baseline to week 16, was assessed via a Cox model with respect to subsequent primary events. Mean age was 69 years, 24% were female, and mean baseline eGFR was 61 mL/min/1.73 m2. During 48 weeks of treatment, the trajectories in eGFR and creatinine with vericiguat were similar to placebo (P = 0.50 and 0.18). The beneficial effects of vericiguat on the primary outcome were not influenced by baseline eGFR (interaction P = 0.48). WRF occurred in 15% of patients and was associated with worse outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.11–1.47; P, The left panel shows no differences in the change in creatinine (P = 0.18) between the vericiguat and placebo groups, as evaluated by the interaction between treatment and study visit in the model. The right panel shows a natural cubic spline plot showing that the treatment effect of vericiguat on the primary outcome was similar across the full range of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (P = 0.23).

Background The inflammatory cytokine IL-6 has been previously implicated in the pathophysiology of acute decompensated heart failure (HF). Prior observations in acute HF patients have suggested that IL-6 may be associated with outcomes and modulated by nesiritide. We aimed to evaluate the associations between serial IL-6 measurements, mortality and rehospitalization in acute HF. Methods and Results We analyzed the associations between IL-6 in acute HF, readmission, and mortality (30 and 180 days) using a cohort of 883 hospitalized patients from the ASCEND-HF trial (nesiritide vs placebo). Plasma IL-6 was measured at randomization (baseline), 48–72 hours, and 30 days. The median IL-6 was highest at baseline (14.1 pg/mL) and decreased at subsequent time points (7.6 pg/mL at 30 days). In a univariable Cox regression analysis, the baseline IL-6 was associated with 30- and 180-day mortality (hazard ratio per log 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.09–2.78, P = .021; hazard ratio 3.23, confidence interval 1.18–8.86, P = .022, respectively). However, there was no association after multivariable adjustment. IL-6 at 48–72 hours was found to be independently associated with 30-day mortality (hazard ratio 8.2, confidence interval 1.2–57.5, P= .03), but not 180-day mortality in multivariable analysis that included the ASCEND-HF risk model and amino terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide as covariates. In comparison with placebo, nesiritide therapy was not associated with differences in serial IL-6 levels. Conclusions Although elevated IL-6 levels were associated with higher all-cause mortality in acute HF, no independent association with this outcome was identified at baseline or 30-day measurements. In contrast with prior reports, we did not observe any impact of nesiritide over placebo on serial IL-6 levels.

Aim We assessed a subset of the 5040 patients in VICTORIA receiving sacubitril/valsartan, either at randomization (n = 731) or post-randomization drop-in use (n = 425), to evaluate the relationship between the efficacy and safety of combination therapy with vericiguat. Methods and results The efficacy of vericiguat on the primary composite endpoint, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, and all-cause mortality was assessed. Safety outcomes included symptomatic hypotension, syncope, worsening renal function, and hyperkalaemia. At randomization, 731 patients received sacubitril/valsartan; they were more frequently from Western Europe or North America, had lower ejection fraction and systolic blood pressure, and more use of triple background HF therapy (65.9% vs. 58.6%), biventricular pacemakers (17.9% vs. 14.1%), or implantable cardioverter defibrillators (42.3% vs. 25.3%). For patients on versus not on sacubitril/valsartan at randomization, adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for vericiguat's treatment effect on the primary composite outcome, cardiovascular death, and HF hospitalization were 0.92 (0.71-1.19) versus 0.89 (0.80-0.98), 0.71 (0.45-1.12) versus 0.95 (0.82-1.11), and 0.98 (0.74-1.29) versus 0.87 (0.78-0.98), respectively. No significant interaction existed between sacubitril/valsartan and vericiguat's treatment effect (p-values for interaction: 0.81, 0.23 and 0.47, respectively). Post-randomization, more drop-in sacubitril/valsartan use occurred in those assigned to placebo (n = 238) versus vericiguat (n = 187) (p = 0.007). Symptomatic hypotension (21.0% vs. 23.1%; p = 0.41), renal dysfunction (29.9% vs. 31.9%; p = 0.50), and hyperkalaemia (10.3% vs. 7.9%; p = 0.20) in patients receiving sacubitril/valsartan (n = 992) for >= 3 months were not different by treatment arm. Conclusions Concomitant use of sacubitril/valsartan for at least 3 months did not alter the efficacy of vericiguat and was similarly safe and tolerated in both study arms. Sacubitril/valsartan was initiated more frequently after randomization in patients assigned to placebo versus vericiguat. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02861534.

Vericiguat, a novel stimulator of soluble guanylate cyclase (sGC), is indicated for the treatment of patients following a hospitalization for heart failure or need for outpatient intravenous diuretics, with symptomatic chronic heart failure and ejection fraction less than 45%. Pharmacokinetic (PK) data from the phase II trial SOCRATES-REDUCED (Soluble Guanylate Cyclase Stimulator in Heart Failure Study) and the phase III trial VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction) were used to characterize vericiguat PK. A total of 8,092 concentration records from 2,321 participants (362 from SOCRATES-REDUCED and 1,959 from VICTORIA) were utilized for the development of the population PK model. The final PK model was a one-compartment model with first-order absorption and linear elimination. Baseline body weight and time-varying body weight were identified as statistically significant covariates affecting apparent clearance (CL/F) and volume of distribution, respectively. Age, sex, race, bilirubin, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and albumin did not affect vericiguat PK. Baseline disease-related factors, such as left ventricular ejection fraction, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, also did not influence vericiguat PK. Since vericiguat is a titrated drug, the impact of vericiguat PK on the titration to and maintenance of the target dose in VICTORIA was assessed. The distribution of steady-state doses in VICTORIA was similar across CL/F quartiles, suggesting that the ability to reach and maintain dosing at the target 10-mg dose was not related to vericiguat exposure.

BACKGROUND: The STREAM study demonstrated that a pharmaco-invasive strategy was at least as effective as primary PCI (pPCI) in patients presenting early with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The current trial is a response to the finding that reduced intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients ≥75 years occurred after halving the dose of tenecteplase. Additionally, a subsequent analysis of full dose tenecteplase or alteplase in the Assessment of the Safety and Efficacy of a New Thrombolytic (ASSENT) trials demonstrated a steep increase in bleeding events beginning around the age of 60 years. METHODS: STREAM-2 will compare the efficacy and safety of a novel pharmaco-invasive strategy as compared to routine pPCI in STEMI patients ≥60 years presenting within 3 hours from symptom onset. In the pharmaco-invasive arm patients will receive half-dose tenecteplase, as soon as possible before transport to a PCI center. In the pPCI arm, patients will be treated according to optimal standard of care defined by local practice. The key criteria for efficacy will be the number of patients achieving ≥50% ST-segment resolution before and after PCI in lead with maximal ST elevation at baseline and the clinical endpoints of death, congestive heart failure, shock or re-infarction, rescue PCI and aborted myocardial infarction, both singularly and as a composite at 30 days. Key safety criteria are total stroke, ICH and major non-intracranial bleeds. Approximately 600 patients will be randomized (400 to pharmaco-invasive treatment and 200 to pPCI). An interim analysis is planned after 300 patients are enrolled to consider adapting the trial to include a larger sample size aimed at undertaking a formal confirmatory trial. DISCUSSION: The study will provide new insights aimed at establishing an effective and safer pharmaco-invasive treatment for the growing population of older STEMI patients who cannot undergo timely pPCI. ispartof: AMERICAN HEART JOURNAL vol:226 pages:140-146 ispartof: location:United States status: published

Aims Whether glycaemic control is associated with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unclear. Consequently, we assessed the relationship between glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c ) and cardiovascular outcomes in a placebo-controlled randomized trial which demonstrated no cardiovascular effect of sitagliptin in patients with T2D and atherosclerotic vascular disease. Methods and results Secondary analysis of 14 656 TECOS participants with time to event analyses using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. During a median 3.0 (interquartile range 2.3-3.8) year follow-up, 456 (3.1% of 14 656) patients had first hospitalization for heart failure (HF), 1084 (11.5%) died, 1406 (9.6%) died or were hospitalized for HF, and 1689 (11.5%) had a non-HF cardiovascular event (cardiovascular death, non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for unstable angina). Associations between baseline or time-varying HbA1c and cardiovascular outcomes were U-shaped, with the lowest risk when HbA1c was around 7%. Each one-unit increase in the time-varying HbA1c above 7% was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.21 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-1.33] for first HF hospitalization, 1.11 (1.03-1.21) for all-cause death, 1.18 (1.09-1.26) for death or HF hospitalization, and 1.10 (1.02-1.17) for non-HF cardiovascular events. Each one-unit decrease in the time-varying HbA1c below 7% was associated with an adjusted HR of 1.35 (95% CI 1.12-1.64) for first HF hospitalization, 1.37 (1.16-1.61) for death, 1.42 (1.23-1.64) for death or HF hospitalization, and 1.22 (1.06-1.41) for non-HF cardiovascular events. Conclusion Glycated haemogobin exhibits a U-shaped association with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with T2D and atherosclerotic vascular disease, with nadir around 7%. Clinical trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00790205.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term outcomes of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) with multivessel disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).Controversy exists regarding the benefit of multivessel PCI across the spectrum of ACS.A total of 9,094 patients with ACS and multivessel disease (≥70% stenosis in 2 or more major epicardial vessels) undergoing PCI from the Alberta COAPT (Contemporary Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients Invasive Treatment Strategies) registry (April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2013) were reviewed. Comparisons were made between patients who underwent complete revascularization and those with incomplete revascularization. Complete revascularization was defined as multivessel PCI with a residual angiographic jeopardy score ≤10%. Associations between revascularization status and all-cause death or new myocardial infarction (primary composite endpoint) and all-cause death, new myocardial infarction, or repeat revascularization (secondary composite endpoint) were evaluated.Of the study cohort, 66.0% underwent complete revascularization. Compared with incomplete revascularization, the primary composite endpoint occurred less frequently with complete revascularization (event rate within 5 years 15.4% vs. 22.2%; inverse probability-weighted hazard ratio [IPW-HR]: 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.73 to 0.84; p 0.0001). The secondary composite endpoint was less likely to occur with complete revascularization (event rate within 5 years 23.3% vs. 37.5%; IPW-HR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.58 to 0.65; p 0.0001). Complete revascularization was associated with a reduction in all-cause death (IPW-HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.73 to 0.86; p = 0.0004), new myocardial infarction (IPW-HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.69 to 0.84; p 0.0001), and repeat revascularization (IPW-HR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.49 to 0.57; p 0.0001).Results from this large contemporary registry of patients with ACS and PCI for multivessel disease suggest that complete revascularization occurs commonly and is associated with improved clinical outcomes (including survival) within 5 years.

Clinically important thresholds in patient-reported outcomes measures like the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) have not been defined for patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). The aim of this study was to estimate meaningful thresholds for improvement or worsening in the KCCQ physical limitation score (PLS) in patients with HFpEF.In this pre-specified analysis from VITALITY-HFpEF, anchor- and distribution-based approaches were used to estimate thresholds for improvement or worsening in the KCCQ-PLS using Patient Global Impression of Change (PGIC) as an anchor. The KCCQ-PLS contains six elements, with each increment in response resulting in a change of 4.17 points when converted to a 0-100 scale. The mean change in KCCQ-PLS from baseline to week 12 was calculated for each PGIC group to estimate a meaningful within-patient change. Of 789 patients enrolled, 698 had complete KCCQ-PLS and PGIC data at week 12. The mean (± standard deviation) changes in KCCQ-PLS corresponding to PGIC changes of 'a little better', 'better', and 'much better' were 5.7 ± 18.6, 11.6 ± 19.3, and 18.4 ± 25.3 points, respectively. The scores of patients who responded 'a little better' (n = 177) overlapped substantially with those who reported 'no change' (n = 193; mean change 2.8 ± 18.9). The mean change in KCCQ-PLS for patients responding 'a little worse' (n = 32) was -2.6 ± 18.0 points. The threshold for meaningful within-patient change in KCCQ-PLS based on distribution-based analyses was 12.3 points. Using area under the curve (AUC) analyses of KCCQ-PLS, the sensitivity and specificity of a 4.17-point change were 0.61 and 0.57, for an 8.33-point change they were 0.49 and 0.64, and for a 12.5-point change they were 0.44 and 0.72 for being at least a little better on the PGIC (AUC = 0.54).In the VITALITY-HFpEF trial, a change in KCCQ-PLS of ≥8.33 points (corresponding to an improvement in ≥2 response categories of KCCQ-PLS) may represent the minimal clinically important difference for improvement and a change of ≤ -4.17 points (corresponding to a worsening in ≥1 response category of KCCQ-PLS) may suggest deterioration in patients with HFpEF.

The effect of vericiguat on sequential N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels and influence of this relationship on clinical outcomes is unknown.This study assessed the relationship between changes in NT-proBNP and the primary outcome (cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization); evaluated the effect of vericiguat on changes in NT-proBNP; and explored the association between the efficacy of vericiguat and changes in NT-proBNP.NT-proBNP was measured at randomization and at 16, 32, 48, and 96 weeks in 4,805 of 5,050 patients. The association between NT-proBNP change at week 16 and the primary outcome was assessed. The relationship between changes in NT-proBNP and the primary outcome according to treatment group was assessed by using joint modeling and mediation analysis.A significant and sustained decline in NT-proBNP levels was seen in both treatment groups. After week 16, NT-proBNP levels decreased more with vericiguat vs placebo (any reduction: odds ratio [OR]: 1.45 [95% CI: 1.28-1.65]; P 0.001; ≥50% reduction: OR: 1.27 [95% CI: 1.10-1.47]; P = 0.001) and were less likely to increase (≥20% increase: OR: 0.68 [95% CI: 0.59-0.78]; P 0.001; ≥50% increase: OR: 0.70 [95% CI: 0.59-0.82]; P 0.001). The treatment effect related to serial NT-proBNP on the primary composite outcome was HR: 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95-0.99) at week 16, which increased to HR: 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96) at week 48; the average extent of mediation of the composite outcome related to NT-proBNP was 45%.In patients with worsening HFrEF, vericiguat significantly decreased NT-proBNP levels compared with placebo. This change appeared associated with a modest relative improvement in the primary outcome of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization. (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction [VICTORIA]; NCT02861534).

Background Although safety and tolerability of vericiguat were established in the VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction) trial in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, some subgroups may be more susceptible to symptomatic hypotension, such as older patients, those with lower baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP), or those concurrently taking angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors. We described the SBP trajectories over time and compared the occurrence of symptomatic hypotension or syncope by treatment arm in potentially vulnerable subgroups in VICTORIA. We also evaluated the relation between the efficacy of vericiguat and baseline SBP. Methods and Results Among patients receiving at least 1 dose of the study drug (n=5034), potentially vulnerable subgroups were those >75 years old (n=1395), those with baseline SBP 100–110 mm Hg (n=1344), and those taking angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors (n=730). SBP trajectory was plotted as mean change from baseline over time. The treatment effect on time to symptomatic hypotension or syncope was evaluated overall and by subgroup, and the primary efficacy composite outcome (heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death) across baseline SBP was examined using Cox proportional hazards models. SBP trajectories showed a small initial decline in SBP with vericiguat in those >75 years old (versus younger patients), as well as those receiving angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors (versus none), with SBP returning to baseline thereafter. Patients with SBP P =0.059). No difference existed between treatment arms in landmark analysis beginning after the titration phase (ie, post 4 weeks) (adjusted HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.93–1.38; P =0.20). The benefit of vericiguat compared with placebo on the primary composite efficacy outcome was similar across the spectrum of baseline SBP ( P for interaction=0.32). Conclusions These data demonstrate the safety of vericiguat in a broad population of patients with worsening heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, even among those predisposed to hypotension. Vericiguat’s efficacy persisted regardless of baseline SBP. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT02861534.

OBJECTIVE Phenotypic heterogeneity among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is ill defined. We used cluster analysis machine-learning algorithms to identify phenotypes among trial participants with T2DM and ASCVD. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We used data from the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS) study (n = 14,671), a cardiovascular outcome safety trial comparing sitagliptin with placebo in patients with T2DM and ASCVD (median follow-up 3.0 years). Cluster analysis using 40 baseline variables was conducted, with associations between clusters and the primary composite outcome (cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina) assessed by Cox proportional hazards models. We replicated the results using the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) trial. RESULTS Four distinct phenotypes were identified: cluster I included Caucasian men with a high prevalence of coronary artery disease; cluster II included Asian patients with a low BMI; cluster III included women with noncoronary ASCVD disease; and cluster IV included patients with heart failure and kidney dysfunction. The primary outcome occurred, respectively, in 11.6%, 8.6%, 10.3%, and 16.8% of patients in clusters I to IV. The crude difference in cardiovascular risk for the highest versus lowest risk cluster (cluster IV vs. II) was statistically significant (hazard ratio 2.74 [95% CI 2.29–3.29]). Similar phenotypes and outcomes were identified in EXSCEL. CONCLUSIONS In patients with T2DM and ASCVD, cluster analysis identified four clinically distinct groups. Further cardiovascular phenotyping is warranted to inform patient care and optimize clinical trial designs.

Early prediction of significant morbidity or mortality in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) represents an unmet clinical need. In phenotypically matched population of 139 STEMI patients (72 cases, 67 controls) treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention, we explored associations between a 24-h relative change from baseline in the concentration of 91 novel biomarkers and the composite outcome of death, heart failure, or shock within 90 days. Additionally, we used random forest models to predict the 90-day outcomes. After adjustment for false discovery rate, the 90-day composite was significantly associated with concentration changes in 14 biomarkers involved in various pathophysiologic processes including: myocardial fibrosis/remodeling (collagen alpha-1, cathepsin Z, metalloproteinase inhibitor 4, protein tyrosine phosphatase subunits), inflammation, angiogenesis and signaling (interleukin 1 and 2 subunits, growth differentiation factor 15, galectin 4, trefoil factor 3), bone/mineral metabolism (osteoprotegerin, matrix extracellular phosphoglycoprotein and tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase), thrombosis (tissue factor pathway inhibitor) and cholesterol metabolism (LDL-receptor). Random forest models suggested an independent association when inflammatory markers are included in models predicting the outcomes within 90 days. Substantial heterogeneity is apparent in the early proteomic responses among patients with acutely reperfused STEMI patients who develop death, heart failure or shock within 90 days. These findings suggest the need to consider synergistic multi-biomarker strategies for risk stratification and to inform future development of novel post-myocardial infarction therapies.

Background In the VICTORIA trial (n=5050) the reduction in the primary composite endpoint of cardiovascular death (CVD) or heart failure hospitalization (HFH) was similar whether or not patients received sacubitril/valsartan. The distribution of those patients who received sacubitril/valsartan after randomization (drop-ins) and the relationship to the efficacy and safety of vericiguat is unknown. Purpose We assessed the efficacy and safety of vericiguat in patients who were or were not treated with sacubitril/valsartan at baseline in the VICTORIA trial and the implications of post- randomization use of sacubitril/valsartan. Methods A total of 5040 patients were analyzed according sacubitril/valsartan use at randomization or initiated after randomization. The efficacy of vericiguat on the primary composite endpoint and its components, time to first HF hospitalization or all-cause mortality, were assessed according to sacubitril/valsartan use. Safety outcomes included symptomatic hypotension, syncope, worsening renal function, and hyperkalemia. Results Overall, 731 patients (360 on vericiguat and 371 on placebo) received sacubitril/valsartan at randomization. Patients treated with sacubitril/valsartan were twice as likely to be from Western Europe or North America, to have a lower ejection fraction and systolic and diastolic blood pressures, were more often on triple therapy (65.9 vs 58.6%), and more likely to have received biventricular pacing (17.9 vs 14.1%) or ICDs (42.3 vs 25.3%). For patients on sacubitril/valsartan at baseline, the adjusted hazard ratios for vericiguat's treatment effect on the primary composite outcome, CVD, and HFH was 0.94 (95% CI 0.74–1.20), 0.81 (95% CI 0.55–1.20) and 0.99 (95% CI 0.76–1.30), respectively. For those patients not on sacubitril/valsartan (2161 vericiguat; 2148 on placebo), the corresponding adjusted hazard ratios for vericiguat's treatment effect on the primary composite outcome, CVD, and HFH were 0.89 (0.80–0.98), 0.95 (0.82–1.11), and 0,87 (0.78–0.98), respectively. There was no significant interaction on the treatment effect of vericiguat based on the use of sacubitril/valsartan. More placebo patients (n=238) received drop-in use of sacubitril/valsartan than vericiguat group (n=187; p=0.007) post-randomization during follow-up (Figure). Overall, adverse events in the 992 patients receiving sacubitril/valsartan (at either baseline or drop-in for at least 3 months) were not significantly different according to those on placebo vs vericiguat for symptomatic hypotension (21.0% vs 23.1), renal dysfunction (8.0 vs 9.0%), and hyperkalemia (10.3 vs 7.9%). Conclusions Sacubitril/valsartan use was initiated more frequently after randomization in patients on placebo than on vericiguat. Concomitant use of sacubitril/valsartan did not alter the efficacy of vericiguat and was similarly tolerated in both study arms. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): Merck & Co., Inc. and Bayer

Background In the VICTORIA trial of patients with HFrEF after a worsening HF event, anemia occurred more often in patients treated with vericiguat (7.6%) compared with placebo (5.7%). We explored the association between vericiguat, baseline hemoglobin, and anemia and also whether hemoglobin was related to the benefit of vericiguat in HF. Methods Anemia was defined as a hemoglobin Results Of 4812 patients with baseline hemoglobin data available, 1719 (35.7%) were WHO anemic; median hemoglobin was 13.4 g/dL (IQR 12.1 to 14.7 g/dL). In total, 1643 patients had WHO anemia at 16 weeks (of which 284 were new from baseline for vericiguat and 219 for placebo) and this occurred more often in the vericiguat group than the placebo group (P Conclusions Anemia was present at baseline in over one-third of patients in the VICTORIA trial and was generally mild. Lower hemoglobin was associated with greater frequency of clinical events. Although vericiguat modestly lowered hemoglobin by 16 weeks, this effect did not further progress nor influence the association of benefit of vericiguat. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): Merck & Co., Inc. and Bayer

Background: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often target enrollment of patients with demographics and outcomes less representative of the broader population of interest. To provide context for the VICTORIA trial (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction), we designed a registry of hospitalized patients with worsening heart failure to characterize their clinical profile, outcomes, and reasons for their nonparticipation in a RCT. Methods: Fifty-one RCT sites in Canada and the United States participated. Eligible patients included those with chronic heart failure, hospitalized for heart failure, and an ejection fraction Results: Overall, 2056 patients were enrolled in the registry; 61% (n=1256) were ineligible for the RCT, 37% (n=766) were eligible but not enrolled, and 2% (n=34) were also enrolled in the RCT. Registry participants had a median age of 70, 33% were women, and 63% were White. The median risk score predicted a 20.9% 1-year mortality, higher than in the RCT (predicted 14.7% and observed 11.5%). Major reasons for ineligibility in the RCT included the use of nitrates (23%), systolic blood pressure Conclusions: Patients with worsening heart failure in routine clinical practice exhibit high-risk features, and approximately one-third were eligible for an RCT but excluded. The majority of these nonparticipating patients had modifiable reasons. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT02861534.

Aims We evaluated the relation between baseline and new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) and outcomes, and assessed whether vericiguat modified the likelihood of new-onset AF in patients with worsening heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction in VICTORIA. Methods and results Of 5050 patients randomized, 5010 with recorded AF status at baseline were analysed. Patients were classified into three groups: no known AF (n = 2661, 53%), history of AF alone (n = 992, 20%), and AF on randomization electrocardiogram (n = 1357, 27%). Compared with those with no AF, those with history of AF alone had a higher risk of cardiovascular death [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.47] without excess myocardial infarction or stroke; neither type of AF was associated with a higher risk of the primary composite outcome (time to cardiovascular death or first HF hospitalization), HF hospitalizations, or all cause-death. The beneficial effect of vericiguat on the primary composite outcome and its components was evident irrespective of AF status at baseline. Over a median follow-up of 10.8 months, new-onset AF occurred in 6.1% of those with no AF and 18.3% with history of AF alone (P < 0.0001). These events were not influenced by vericiguat treatment (adjusted HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.75-1.16; P = 0.51), but were associated with an increase in the hazard of both primary and secondary outcomes. Conclusions Atrial fibrillation was present in nearly half of this high-risk population with worsening HF. A history of AF alone at baseline portends an increased risk of cardiovascular death. Neither type of AF affected the beneficial effect of vericiguat. Development of AF post-randomization was associated with an increase in both cardiovascular death and HF hospitalization which was not influenced by vericiguat.

The genomic regulatory networks underlying the pathogenesis of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) are incompletely understood. As intermediate traits, protein biomarkers report on underlying disease severity and prognosis in NSTE-ACS. We hypothesized that integration of dense microRNA (miRNA) profiling with biomarker measurements would highlight potential regulatory pathways that underlie the relationships between prognostic biomarkers, miRNAs, and cardiovascular phenotypes. We performed miRNA sequencing using whole blood from 186 patients from the TRILOGY-ACS trial. Seven circulating prognostic biomarkers were measured: NH2-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, osteopontin (OPN), myeloperoxidase, growth differentiation factor 15, monocyte chemoattractant protein, and neopterin. We tested miRNAs for association with each biomarker with generalized linear models and controlled the false discovery rate at 0.05. Ten miRNAs, including known cardiac-related miRNAs 25-3p and 423-3p, were associated with NT-proBNP levels (min. P = 7.5 × 10−4) and 48 miRNAs, including cardiac-related miRNAs 378a-3p, 20b-5p and 320a, -b, and -d, were associated with OPN levels (min. P = 1.6 × 10−6). NT-proBNP and OPN were also associated with time to cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke in the sample. By integrating large-scale miRNA profiling with circulating biomarkers as intermediate traits, we identified associations of known cardiac-related and novel miRNAs with two prognostic biomarkers and identified potential genomic networks regulating these biomarkers. These results, highlighting plausible biological pathways connecting miRNAs with biomarkers and outcomes, may inform future studies seeking to delineate genomic pathways underlying NSTE-ACS outcomes.

Background: Amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP) is closely associated with prognosis in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). As a result, there has been great interest measuring it during the course of treatment. The prognostic implications in both short-term and follow-up changes in NTproBNP need further clarification.Methods: Baseline, 48-72 hour, and 30-day NTproBNP levels were measured in 795 subjects in the ASCEND-HF trial. Multivariable logistic and Cox-proportional hazards models were used to test the association between static, relative, and absolute changes in NTproBNP with outcomes during and after ADHF.Results: The median NTproBNP at baseline was 5773 (2981-11,579) pg/mL; at 48-72 hours was 3036 (1191-6479) pg/mL; and at 30 days was 2914 (1364-6667) pg/mL. Absolute changes in NTproBNP by 48-72 hours were not associated with 30-day heart failure rehospitalization or mortality (P = .065), relative changes in NTproBNP were nominally associated (P = .046). In contrast, both absolute and relative changes in NTproBNP from baseline to 48-72 hours and to 30 days were closely associated with 180-day mortality (P Conclusions: Although the degree of absolute change in NTproBNP was dependent on baseline levels, both short-term absolute and relative changes in NTproBNP were independently and incrementally associated with long-term clinical outcomes. Changes in NTproBNP levels at 30-days were particularly well associated with long-term clinical outcomes.

Rapid reperfusion of the infarct-related artery is the cornerstone of therapy for the management of acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Canada's geography presents unique challenges for timely delivery of reperfusion therapy for STEMI patients. The Canadian Cardiovascular Society/Canadian Association of Interventional Cardiology STEMI guideline was developed to provide advice regarding the optimal acute management of STEMI patients irrespective of where they are initially identified: in the field, at a non-percutaneous coronary intervention-capable centre or at a percutaneous coronary intervention-capable centre. We had also planned to evaluate and incorporate sex and gender considerations in the development of our recommendations. Unfortunately, inadequate enrollment of women in randomized trials, lack of publication of main outcomes stratified according to sex, and lack of inclusion of gender as a study variable in the available literature limited the feasibility of such an approach. The Grading Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation system was used to develop specific evidence-based recommendations for the early identification of STEMI patients, practical aspects of patient transport, regional reperfusion decision-making, adjunctive prehospital interventions (oxygen, opioids, antiplatelet therapy), and procedural aspects of mechanical reperfusion (access site, thrombectomy, antithrombotic therapy, extent of revascularization). Emphasis is placed on integrating these recommendations as part of an organized regional network of STEMI care and the development of appropriate reperfusion and transportation pathways for any given region. It is anticipated that these guidelines will serve as a practical template to develop systems of care capable of providing optimal treatment for a wide range of STEMI patients.

Prediction of outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) may inform prognosis, clinical decisions regarding treatment selection, and new trial planning. The VICTORIA trial included high-risk patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction and a recent worsening HF event. The study participants had an unusually high event rate despite usage of contemporary guideline-based therapies. To provide generalizable predictive data for a broad population with a recent worsening HF event, we focused on risk prognostication in the placebo group.Data from 2524 participants randomized to placebo with chronic HF (New York Heart Association class [NYHA] II-IV) and ejection fraction45% were studied and backward variable selection was used to create Cox proportional hazards models for clinical endpoints, selecting from 66 candidate predictors. Final model results were produced, accounting for missing data, non-linearities, and interactions with treatment. Optimism-corrected c-indices were calculated using 200 bootstrap samples.During a median follow-up of 10.4 months, the primary outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death occurred in 972 (38.5%) patients. Independent predictors of increased risk for the primary endpoint included HF characteristics (longer HF duration and worse NYHA class), medical history (prior myocardial infarction), and laboratory values (higher N-terminal pro-hormone B-type natriuretic peptide, bilirubin, urate; lower chloride and albumin). Optimism-corrected c-indices were 0.68 for the HF hospitalization/cardiovascular death model, 0.68 for HF hospitalization/all-cause death, 0.72 for cardiovascular death, and 0.73 for all-cause death.Predictive models developed in a large diverse clinical trial with comprehensive clinical and laboratory baseline data-including novel measures-performed well in high-risk HF patients who were receiving excellent guideline-based clinical care.Clinicaltrials.gov identifier, NCT02861534.Patients with heart failure may benefit from tools that help clinicians better understand patient's risk for future events like hospitalization. Relatively few risk models have been created after worsening of heart failure in a contemporary cohort. We provide insights on risk factors for clinical events from a recent large, global trial of patients with worsening heart failure to help clinicians better understand and communicate prognosis and select treatment options.

Randomized clinical trials initially used heart failure (HF) patients with low left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) to select study populations with high risk to enhance statistical power. However, this use of LVEF in clinical trials has led to oversimplification of the scientific view of a complex syndrome. Descriptive terms such as ‘HFrEF’ (HF with reduced LVEF), ‘HFpEF’ (HF with preserved LVEF), and more recently ‘HFmrEF’ (HF with mid-range LVEF), assigned on arbitrary LVEF cut-off points, have gradually arisen as separate diseases, implying distinct pathophysiologies. In this article, based on pathophysiological reasoning, we challenge the paradigm of classifying HF according to LVEF. Instead, we propose that HF is a heterogeneous syndrome in which disease progression is associated with a dynamic evolution of functional and structural changes leading to unique disease trajectories creating a spectrum of phenotypes with overlapping and distinct characteristics. Moreover, we argue that by recognizing the spectral nature of the disease a novel stratification will arise from new technologies and scientific insights that will shape the design of future trials based on deeper understanding beyond the LVEF construct alone.