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OBJECTIVE: Circadian rhythm disruption is commonly observed in bipolar disorder (BD). Daylight is the most powerful signal to entrain the human circadian clock system. This exploratory study investigated if solar insolation at the onset location was associated with the polarity of the first episode of BD I. Solar insolation is the amount of electromagnetic energy from the Sun striking a surface area of the Earth.METHODS: Data from 7488 patients with BD I were collected at 75 sites in 42 countries. The first episode occurred at 591 onset locations in 67 countries at a wide range of latitudes in both hemispheres. Solar insolation values were obtained for every onset location, and the ratio of the minimum mean monthly insolation to the maximum mean monthly insolation was calculated. This ratio is largest near the equator (with little change in solar insolation over the year), and smallest near the poles (where winter insolation is very small compared to summer insolation). This ratio also applies to tropical locations which may have a cloudy wet and clear dry season, rather than winter and summer.RESULTS: The larger the change in solar insolation throughout the year (smaller the ratio between the minimum monthly and maximum monthly values), the greater the likelihood the first episode polarity was depression. Other associated variables were being female and increasing percentage of gross domestic product spent on country health expenditures. (All coefficients: P ≤ 0.001).CONCLUSION: Increased awareness and research into circadian dysfunction throughout the course of BD is warranted.

BackgroundLithium is the gold standard prophylactic treatment for bipolar disorder. Most clinical practice guidelines recommend regular calcium assessments as part of monitoring lithium treatment, but easy-to-implement specific management strategies in the event of abnormal calcium levels are lacking.MethodsBased on a narrative review of the effects of lithium on calcium and parathyroid hormone (PTH) homeostasis and its clinical implications, experts developed a step-by-step algorithm to guide the initial management of emergent hypercalcemia during lithium treatment.ResultsIn the event of albumin-corrected plasma calcium levels above the upper limit, PTH and calcium levels should be measured after two weeks. Measurement of PTH and calcium levels should preferably be repeated after one month in case of normal or high PTH level, and after one week in case of low PTH level, independently of calcium levels. Calcium levels above 2.8 mmol/l may require a more acute approach. If PTH and calcium levels are normalized, repeated measurements are suggested after six months. In case of persistent PTH and calcium abnormalities, referral to an endocrinologist is suggested since further examination may be needed.ConclusionsStandardized consensus driven management may diminish the potential risk of clinicians avoiding the use of lithium because of uncertainties about managing side-effects and consequently hindering some patients from receiving an optimal treatment. Background: Lithium is the gold standard prophylactic treatment for bipolar disorder. Most clinical practice guidelines recommend regular calcium assessments as part of monitoring lithium treatment, but easy-to-implement specific management strategies in the event of abnormal calcium levels are lacking. Methods: Based on a narrative review of the effects of lithium on calcium and parathyroid hormone (PTH) homeostasis and its clinical implications, experts developed a step-by-step algorithm to guide the initial management of emergent hypercalcemia during lithium treatment. Results: In the event of albumin-corrected plasma calcium levels above the upper limit, PTH and calcium levels should be measured after two weeks. Measurement of PTH and calcium levels should preferably be repeated after one month in case of normal or high PTH level, and after one week in case of low PTH level, independently of calcium levels. Calcium levels above 2.8 mmol/l may require a more acute approach. If PTH and calcium levels are normalized, repeated measurements are suggested after six months. In case of persistent PTH and calcium abnormalities, referral to an endocrinologist is suggested since further examination may be needed. Conclusions: Standardized consensus driven management may diminish the potential risk of clinicians avoiding the use of lithium because of uncertainties about managing side-effects and consequently hindering some patients from receiving an optimal treatment.

Lithium is the gold standard therapy for Bipolar Disorder (BD) but its effectiveness differs widely between individuals. The molecular mechanisms underlying treatment response heterogeneity are not well understood, and personalized treatment in BD remains elusive. Genetic analyses of the lithium treatment response phenotype may generate novel molecular insights into lithium’s therapeutic mechanisms and lead to testable hypotheses to improve BD management and outcomes. We used fixed effect meta-analysis techniques to develop meta-analytic polygenic risk scores (MET-PRS) from combinations of highly correlated psychiatric traits, namely schizophrenia (SCZ), major depression (MD) and bipolar disorder (BD). We compared the effects of cross-disorder MET-PRS and single genetic trait PRS on lithium response. For the PRS analyses, we included clinical data on lithium treatment response and genetic information for n = 2283 BD cases from the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen; www.ConLiGen.org). Higher SCZ and MD PRSs were associated with poorer lithium treatment response whereas BD-PRS had no association with treatment outcome. The combined MET2-PRS comprising of SCZ and MD variants (MET2-PRS) and a model using SCZ and MD-PRS sequentially improved response prediction, compared to single-disorder PRS or to a combined score using all three traits (MET3-PRS). Patients in the highest decile for MET2-PRS loading had 2.5 times higher odds of being classified as poor responders than patients with the lowest decile MET2-PRS scores. An exploratory functional pathway analysis of top MET2-PRS variants was conducted. Findings may inform the development of future testing strategies for personalized lithium prescribing in BD.

Background Family history is a significant risk factor for bipolar disorders (BD), but the magnitude of risk varies considerably between individuals within and across families. Accurate risk estimation may increase motivation to reduce modifiable risk exposures and identify individuals appropriate for monitoring over the peak risk period. Our objective was to develop and independently replicate an individual risk calculator for bipolar spectrum disorders among the offspring of BD parents using data collected in routine clinical practice. Methods Data from the longitudinal Canadian High-Risk Offspring cohort study collected from 1996 to 2020 informed the development of a 5 and 10-year risk calculator using parametric time-to-event models with a cure fraction and a generalized gamma distribution. The calculator was then externally validated using data from the Lausanne–Geneva High-Risk Offspring cohort study collected from 1996 to 2020. A time-varying C-index by age in years was used to estimate the probability that the model correctly classified risk. Bias corrected estimates and 95% confidence limits were derived using a jackknife resampling approach. Findings The primary outcome was age of onset of a major mood disorder. The risk calculator was most accurate at classifying risk in mid to late adolescence in the Canadian cohort (n = 285), and a similar pattern was replicated in the Swiss cohort (n = 128). Specifically, the time-varying C-index indicated that there was approximately a 70% chance that the model would correctly predict which of two 15-year-olds would be more likely to develop the outcome in the future. External validation within a smaller Swiss cohort showed mixed results. Interpretation Findings suggest that this model may be a useful clinical tool in routine practice for improved individualized risk estimation of bipolar spectrum disorders among the adolescent offspring of a BD parent; however, risk estimation in younger high-risk offspring is less accurate, perhaps reflecting the evolving nature of psychopathology in early childhood. Based on external validation with a Swiss cohort, the risk calculator may not be as predictive in more heterogenous high-risk populations. Funding The Canadian High-Risk Study has been funded by consecutive operating grants from the Canadian Institutes for Health Research, currently CIHR PJT Grant 152796 he Lausanne-Geneva high-risk study was and is supported by five grants from the Swiss National Foundation (#3200–040,677, #32003B-105,969, #32003B-118,326, #3200–049,746 and #3200–061,974), three grants from the Swiss National Foundation for the National Centres of Competence in Research project “The Synaptic Bases of Mental Diseases” (#125,759, #158,776, and #51NF40 – 185,897), and a grant from GlaxoSmithKline Clinical Genetics.

Objective Promptly establishing maintenance therapy could reduce morbidity and mortality in patients with bipolar disorder. Using a machine learning approach, we sought to evaluate whether lithium responsiveness (LR) is predictable using clinical markers. Method Our data are the largest existing sample of direct interview-based clinical data from lithium-treated patients (n = 1266, 34.7% responders), collected across seven sites, internationally. We trained a random forest model to classify LR-as defined by the previously validated Alda scale-against 180 clinical predictors. Results Under appropriate cross-validation procedures, LR was predictable in the pooled sample with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95% CI 0.78-0.82) and a Cohen kappa of 0.46 (0.4-0.51). The model demonstrated a particularly low false-positive rate (specificity 0.91 [0.88-0.92]). Features related to clinical course and the absence of rapid cycling appeared consistently informative. Conclusion Clinical data can inform out-of-sample LR prediction to a potentially clinically relevant degree. Despite the relevance of clinical course and the absence of rapid cycling, there was substantial between-site heterogeneity with respect to feature importance. Future work must focus on improving classification of true positives, better characterizing between- and within-site heterogeneity, and further testing such models on new external datasets.

Summary There is widespread agreement by health-care providers, medical associations, industry, and governments that automation using digital technology could improve the delivery and quality of care in psychiatry, and reduce costs. Many benefits from technology have already been realised, along with the identification of many challenges. In this Review, we discuss some of the challenges to developing effective automation for psychiatry to optimise physician treatment of individual patients. Using the perspective of automation experts in other industries, three examples of automation in the delivery of routine care are reviewed: (1) effects of electronic medical records on the patient interview; (2) effects of complex systems integration on e-prescribing; and (3) use of clinical decision support to assist with clinical decision making. An increased understanding of the experience of automation from other sectors might allow for more effective deployment of technology in psychiatry.

BackgroundStudying the phenotypic and genetic characteristics of age and polarity at onset (AAO, PAO) in bipolar disorder (BD) can provide new insights into disease pathology and facilitate the development of screening tools.AimsTo examine the genetic architecture of AAO and PAO and their association with BD disease characteristics.MethodsGenome-wide association studies (GWASs) and polygenic score (PGS) analyses of AAO (N=12977) and PAO (N=6773) were conducted in BD patients of 34 cohorts and a replication sample (N=2237). The association of onset with disease characteristics was investigated in two of these cohorts.ResultsEarlier AAO was associated with an increased risk of psychotic symptoms, suicidality, and fewer episodes. A depressive onset correlated with lifetime suicidality and a manic onset with delusions and manic episodes. Systematic differences in AAO between cohorts and continents of origin were observed. This was also reflected in SNV-based heritability estimates, with higher heritabilities for stricter onset definitions. Increased polygenic scores for autism spectrum disorder (β=-0.34 years, SE=0.08), major depression (β=-0.34 years, SE=0.08), schizophrenia (β=-0.39 years, SE=0.08), and educational attainment (β=-0.31 years, SE=0.08) were associated with an earlier AAO. The AAO GWAS identified one significant locus, but this finding did not replicate. Neither GWAS nor PGS analyses yielded significant associations with PAO.ConclusionsAAO and PAO are associated with indicators of BD severity. Individuals with an earlier onset show an increased polygenic liability for a broad spectrum of psychiatric traits. Systematic differences in AAO across cohorts, continents, and phenotype definitions introduce significant heterogeneity, affecting analyses.RELEVANCE STATEMENTIn the largest study to systematically characterize age at onset (N=12977) and polarity at onset (N=6773) in bipolar disorder, we describe an association between illness onset characteristics and indicators of severity, confirming their clinical relevance. Our study shows that that early illness onset is associated with genetic liability for a broad range of psychiatric disorders. However, we also highlight systematic differences in age at onset across cohorts, continents, and phenotype definitions. This heterogeneity results in reduced heritability and affects genetic analyses, underscoring the need for the development of standardized phenotype definitions.

Response to lithium varies widely between individuals with bipolar disorder (BD). Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can uncover pharmacogenomics effects and may help predict drug response. Patients (N = 2,510) with BD were assessed for long-term lithium response in the Consortium on Lithium Genetics using the Retrospective Criteria of Long-Term Treatment Response in Research Subjects with Bipolar Disorder score. PRSs for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), major depressive disorder (MDD), and schizophrenia (SCZ) were computed using lassosum and in a model including all three PRSs and other covariates, and the PRS of ADHD (β = −0.14; 95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.24 to −0.03; p value = 0.010) and MDD (β = −0.16; 95% CI: −0.27 to −0.04; p value = 0.005) predicted worse quantitative lithium response. A higher SCZ PRS was associated with higher rates of medication nonadherence (OR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.34–1.93; p value = 2e−7). This study indicates that genetic risk for ADHD and depression may influence lithium treatment response. Interestingly, a higher SCZ PRS was associated with poor adherence, which can negatively impact treatment response. Incorporating genetic risk of ADHD, depression, and SCZ in combination with clinical risk may lead to better clinical care for patients with BD.

Background: Family history is a significant risk factor for bipolar disorders (BD), but the magnitude of risk varies considerably between individuals within and across families. Accurate risk estimation may increase motivation to reduce modifiable risk exposures and identify individuals appropriate for monitoring over the peak risk period. Our objective was to develop and independently replicate an individual risk calculator for major mood disorders among the offspring of BD parents using data collected in routine clinical practice. Methods: The longitudinal Canadian High-Risk Offspring cohort study was used to develop a 5 and 10-year risk calculator using parametric time-to-event models with a cure fraction and a generalized gamma distribution. The calculator was then externally validated using data from the Lausanne–Geneva High-Risk Offspring cohort study. A Time-varying C-index by age in years was used to estimate the probability that the model correctly classified risk. Bias corrected estimates and 95% confidence limits were derived using a jackknife resampling approach. Outcomes: The primary outcome was age of onset of a major mood disorder. The risk calculator was most accurate at classifying risk in mid to late adolescence in the Canadian cohort, and a similar pattern was replicated in the Swiss cohort. Specifically, the time-varying C-index indicated that there was approximately a 70% chance that the model would correctly predict which of two 15-year-olds would be more likely to develop a bipolar spectrum mood disorder in the future. Interpretation: Findings suggest that this model may be a useful clinical tool in routine practice for improved individualized risk estimation of bipolar spectrum disorders among the adolescent and offspring of a BD parent; however, accurate risk estimation in younger high-risk children is less precise reflecting the evolving nature of psychopathology at this early developmental stage. Funding: Funding: The Canadian High-Risk Study has been funded by consecutive operating grants from the Canadian Institutes for Health Research, currently CIHR PJT Grant 152976 The Lausanne-Geneva high-risk study was and is supported by five grants from the Swiss National Foundation (#3200-040677, #32003B-105969, #32003B-118326, #3200-049746 and #3200-061974), three grants from the Swiss National Foundation for the National Centres of Competence in Research project “The Synaptic Bases of Mental Diseases” (#125759, #158776, and #51NF40 – 185897), and a grant from GlaxoSmithKline Clinical Genetics. The funders had no involvement in any aspect of this study. Declaration of Interest: MISSING Ethical Approval: The two studies have been approved by respective research ethics boards at each site: the Ottawa Independent Research Ethics Board (Pro00011514), the Queens University Health Sciences and Affiliated Teaching Hospitals Research Ethics Board (PSIY-561-17) and the Ethics Committee for Clinical Research of the Canton de Vaud.

Predicting lithium response prior to treatment could both expedite therapy and avoid exposure to side effects. Since lithium responsiveness may be heritable, its predictability based on genomic data is of interest. We thus evaluate the degree to which lithium response can be predicted with a machine learning (ML) approach using genomic data. Using the largest existing genomic dataset in the lithium response literature (n = 2210 across 14 international sites; 29% responders), we evaluated the degree to which lithium response could be predicted based on 47,465 genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms using a supervised ML approach. Under appropriate cross-validation procedures, lithium response could be predicted to above-chance levels in two constituent sites (Halifax, Cohen’s kappa 0.15, 95% confidence interval, CI [0.07, 0.24]; and Würzburg, kappa 0.2 [0.1, 0.3]). Variants with shared importance in these models showed over-representation of postsynaptic membrane related genes. Lithium response was not predictable in the pooled dataset (kappa 0.02 [− 0.01, 0.04]), although non-trivial performance was achieved within a restricted dataset including only those patients followed prospectively (kappa 0.09 [0.04, 0.14]). Genomic classification of lithium response remains a promising but difficult task. Classification performance could potentially be improved by further harmonization of data collection procedures.

Background Using U.S. pharmacy and medical claims, medication adherence patterns of patients with serious mental illness suggest that adherence to atypical antipsychotics may be related to adherence to other prescription drugs. This study investigated whether adherence to an atypical antipsychotic was related to adherence to other prescribed psychiatric drugs using self-reported data from patients with bipolar disorder. Methods Daily self-reported medication data were available from 123 patients with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder receiving treatment as usual who took at least 1 atypical antipsychotic over a 12-week period. Patients took a mean of 4.0±1.7 psychiatric drugs including the antipsychotic. The adherence rate for the atypical antipsychotic was compared to that for other psychiatric drugs to determine if the adherence rate for the atypical antipsychotic differed from that of the other psychiatric drug by at least ±10%. Results Of the 123 patients, 58 (47.2%) had an adherence rate for the atypical antipsychotic that differed from the adherence rate for at least 1 other psychiatric drug by at least±10%, and 65 (52.8%) patients had no difference in adherence rates. The patients with a difference took a larger total number of psychiatric drugs (p Conclusion Adherence with an atypical antipsychotic was not useful for estimating adherence to other psychiatric drugs in about half of the patients with bipolar disorder.

Predicting lithium response (LiR) in bipolar disorder (BD) could expedite effective pharmacotherapy, but phenotypic heterogeneity of bipolar disorder has complicated the search for genomic markers. We thus sought to determine whether patients with "exemplary phenotypes"---those whose clinical features are reliably predictive of LiR and non-response (LiNR)---are more genetically separable than those with less exemplary phenotypes. We applied machine learning methods to clinical data collected from people with BD (n=1266 across 7 international centres; 34.7% responders) to compute an "exemplar score", which identified a subset of subjects whose clinical phenotypes were most robustly predictive of LiR/LiNR. For subjects whose genotypes were available (n=321), we evaluated whether responders/non-responders with exemplary phenotypes could be more accurately classified based on genetic data than those with non-exemplary phenotypes. We showed that the best LiR exemplars had later illness onset, completely episodic clinical course, absence of rapid cycling and psychosis, and few psychiatric comorbidities. The best exemplars of LiR and LiNR were genetically separable with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (IQR [0.83, 0.98]), compared to 0.66 [0.61, 0.80] (p=0.0032) among the poor exemplars. Variants in the Alzheimer's amyloid secretase pathway, along with G-protein coupled receptor, muscarinic acetylcholine, and histamine H1R signaling pathways were particularly informative predictors. In sum, the most reliably predictive clinical features of LiR and LiNR patients correspond to previously well-characterized phenotypic spectra whose genomic profiles are relatively distinct. Future work must enlarge the sample for genomic classification and include prediction of response to other mood stabilizers.

Predicting lithium response (LiR) in bipolar disorder (BD) may inform treatment planning, but phenotypic heterogeneity complicates discovery of genomic markers. We hypothesized that patients with “exemplary phenotypes”—those whose clinical features are reliably associated with LiR and non-response (LiNR)—are more genetically separable than those with less exemplary phenotypes. Using clinical data collected from people with BD (n = 1266 across 7 centers; 34.7% responders), we computed a “clinical exemplar score,” which measures the degree to which a subject’s clinical phenotype is reliably predictive of LiR/LiNR. For patients whose genotypes were available (n = 321), we evaluated whether a subgroup of responders/non-responders with the top 25% of clinical exemplar scores (the “best clinical exemplars”) were more accurately classified based on genetic data, compared to a subgroup with the lowest 25% of clinical exemplar scores (the “poor clinical exemplars”). On average, the best clinical exemplars of LiR had a later illness onset, completely episodic clinical course, absence of rapid cycling and psychosis, and few psychiatric comorbidities. The best clinical exemplars of LiR and LiNR were genetically separable with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (IQR [0.83, 0.98]), compared to 0.66 [0.61, 0.80] (p = 0.0032) among poor clinical exemplars. Variants in the Alzheimer’s amyloid–secretase pathway, along with G-protein-coupled receptor, muscarinic acetylcholine, and histamine H1R signaling pathways were informative predictors. This study must be replicated on larger samples and extended to predict response to other mood stabilizers.

There has been increasing interest in the use of smartphone applications (apps) and other consumer technology in mental health care for a number of years. However, the vision of data from apps seamlessly returned to, and integrated in, the electronic medical record (EMR) to assist both psychiatrists and patients has not been widely achieved, due in part to complex issues involved in the use of smartphone and other consumer technology in psychiatry. These issues include consumer technology usage, clinical utility, commercialization, and evolving consumer technology. Technological, legal and commercial issues, as well as medical issues, will determine the role of consumer technology in psychiatry. Recommendations for a more productive direction for the use of consumer technology in psychiatry are provided.

As humanity has been utilizing psychedelic substances for millennia, much knowledge has already been accumulated about the exploratory potential and therapeutic power of the psychedelic-induced nonordinary states of consciousness (NSC). However, we still have only a limited understanding of the process that unfolds in mind and the brain. Only recently have systematic investigations become possible, as the myths about psychedelics are abating and the legal strictures gradually loosening. With the availability of brain imaging techniques, exciting findings have been made about the associated dynamic brain processes. Our prospective observations of spontaneously generated NSC, major mood disorders, have been elucidating another dynamic aspect, the oscillatory brain processes. The findings indicate that the NSC’s propensity is markedly increased at the peaks of the oscillatory brain activity and that the NSC entirely unfolds when the oscillations exceed their normal range. The observation that neurobiological correlates of experientially opposite NSC, melancholy and mania, appear qualitatively the same is compatible with the concept that the experiential content is emerging from nonlocal consciousness. Psychedelic experiences are triggered by the administration of the psychedelic drug. However, they are influenced by nondrug factors and molded, in particular, by the individual’s mental set and the setting of the session. The transformative process can be utilized psychotherapeutically for healing and profound inner restructuring.

Background Nonadherence with mood stabilizers is a major problem that negatively impacts the course of bipolar disorder. Medication adherence is a complex individual behavior, and adherence rates often change over time. This study asked if distinct classes of adherence trajectories with mood stabilizers over time could be found, and if so, which patient characteristics were associated with the classes. Methods This analysis was based on 12 weeks of daily self-reported data from 273 patients with bipolar 1 or II disorder using ChronoRecord computer software. All patients were taking at least one mood stabilizer. The latent class mixed model was used to detect trajectories of adherence based on 12 weekly calculated adherence datapoints per patient. Results Two distinct trajectory classes were found: an adherent class (210 patients; 77%) and a less adherent class (63 patients; 23%). The characteristics associated with the less adherent class were: more time not euthymic (p

Background: Lithium has been used clinically for 70 years, mainly to treat bipolar disorder. Competing treatments and exaggerated impressions about complexity and risks of lithium treatment have led to its declining use in some countries, encouraging this update about its safe clinical use. We conducted a nonsystematic review of recent research reports and developed consensus among international experts on the use of lithium to treat major mood disorders, aiming for a simple but authoritative guide for patients and prescribers. Main text: We summarized recommendations concerning safe clinical use of lithium salts to treat major mood disorders, including indications, dosing, clinical monitoring, adverse effects and use in specific circumstances including during pregnancy and for the elderly. Conclusions: Lithium continues as the standard and most extensively evaluated treatment for bipolar disorder, especially for long-term prophylaxis.

In many international studies, rates of completed suicide and suicide attempts have a seasonal pattern that peaks in spring or summer. This exploratory study investigated the association between solar insolation and a history of suicide attempt in patients with bipolar I disorder. Solar insolation is the amount of electromagnetic energy from the Sun striking a surface area on Earth. Data were collected previously from 5536 patients with bipolar I disorder at 50 collection sites in 32 countries at a wide range of latitudes in both hemispheres. Suicide related data were available for 3365 patients from 310 onset locations in 51 countries. 1047 (31.1%) had a history of suicide attempt. There was a significant inverse association between a history of suicide attempt and the ratio of mean winter solar insolation/mean summer solar insolation. This ratio is smallest near the poles where the winter insolation is very small compared to the summer insolation. This ratio is largest near the equator where there is relatively little variation in the insolation over the year. Other variables in the model that were positively associated with suicide attempt were being female, a history of alcohol or substance abuse, and being in a younger birth cohort. Living in a country with a state-sponsored religion decreased the association. (All estimated coefficients p

Objective: The authors sought to describe the emergent course of bipolar disorder in offspring of affected parents subgrouped by parental response to lithium prophylaxis.Methods: Parent bipolar disorder was confirmed by the best-estimate procedure and lithium response by research protocol. High-risk offspring (N=279) and control subjects (N=87) were blindly assessed, annually on average, with the Kiddie Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia– Present and Lifetime version or the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia–Lifetime version. DSM-IV diagnoses were confirmed using the best-estimate procedure in blind consensus reviews. Cumulative incidence and median age at onset were determined for lifetime syndrome- and symptom-level data. Mixed models assessed the association between parent and offspring course. A multistate model was used to estimate the clinical trajectory into bipolar disorder.Results: The cumulative incidence of bipolar disorder was 24.5%, and the median age at onset was 20.7 years (range, 12.4 to 30.3). The clinical course of the affected parent was associated with that of the affected child. Depressive episodes predominated during the early bipolar course, especially among offspring of lithium responders. Childhood sleep and anxiety disorders significantly predicted 1.6-fold and 1.8-fold increases in risk of mood disorder, respectively, and depressive and manic symptoms predicted 2.7- fold and 2.3-fold increases in risk, respectively. The best-fit model of emerging bipolar disorder was a progressive sequence from nonspecific childhood antecedents to adolescent depression to index manic or hypomanic episode. Subthreshold sleep symptoms were significantly associated with transition from well to non-mood disorder, and psychotic symptoms in mood episodes were significantly associated with transition from unipolar to bipolar disorder.Conclusions: Bipolar disorder in individuals at familial risk typically unfolds in a progressive clinical sequence. Childhood sleep and anxiety disorders are important predictors, as are clinically significant mood symptoms and psychotic symptoms in depressive episodes.

Objective: The purpose of this study is to address the question of whether a universal staging model of severe psychiatric disorders is a viable direction for future research by examining the extant literature. Method: A narrative review was conducted of the relevant historical, conceptual, and empirical literature pertaining to the clinical trajectory of bipolar disorder and schizophrenia and issues relevant to staging. Results: There is substantive evidence that classic recurrent bipolar disorder is separable from schizophrenia on the basis of family history, developmental and clinical course, treatment response, and neurobiological findings. However, because of the intrinsic heterogeneity of diagnostic categories that has been amplified by recent changes in psychiatric taxonomy, key distinctions between the groups have become obfuscated. While mapping risk and illness markers to emerging psychopathology is a logical approach and may be of value for some psychiatric disorders and/or their clinical subtypes, robust evidence supporting identifiable stages per se is still lacking. Presently, even rudimentary stages such as prodromes cannot be meaningfully applied across different disorders and no commonalities can be found for the basis of universal staging. Conclusions: Advances in the prediction of risk, accurate early illness detection, and tailored intervention will require mapping biomarkers and other risk indicators to reliable clinical phases of illness progression. Given the capricious nature of mood and psychotic disorders, this task is likely to yield success only if conducted in narrowly defined subgroups of individuals at high risk for specific illnesses. This approach is diametrically opposite to that being promulgated by proponents of a universal staging model.

Objectives To determine the compliance and clinical utility of weekly and daily mood symptom monitoring in adolescents and young adults at risk for mood disorder. Methods Fifty emerging adult offspring of bipolar parents were recruited from the Flourish Canadian high‐risk cohort study along with 108 university student controls. Participants were assessed by KSADS/SADS‐L semi‐structured interviews and used a remote capture method to complete weekly and daily mood symptom ratings using validated scales for 90 consecutive days. Hazard models and generalized estimating equations were used to determine differences in summary scores and regularity of ratings. Results 78% and 77% of high‐risk offspring and 97% and 93% of controls completed the first 30 days of weekly and daily ratings, respectively. There were no differences in drop‐out rates between groups over 90 days (high‐risk p=0.2149; controls p=0.9792). There were no differences in mean summary scores or regularity of weekly anxiety, depressive or hypomanic symptom ratings between high‐risk and control groups. However, high‐risk offspring compared to controls had daily ratings indicating lower positive affect and higher negative affect (p=0.0317). High‐risk offspring with remitted mood disorder compared to those without had more irregularity in weekly anxiety and depressive symptom ratings and daily ratings of lower positive affect, higher negative affect, and higher shame and self‐doubt (p=0.0365). Conclusions Findings support that high‐resolution symptom tracking may be a feasible and clinically useful approach to monitoring emerging psychopathology in young people at high‐risk of mood disorder onset or recurrence.

BackgroundLithium is a first-line medication for bipolar disorder (BD), but only ~30% of patients respond optimally to the drug. Since genetic factors are known to mediate lithium treatment response, we hypothesized whether polygenic susceptibility to the spectrum of depression traits is associated with treatment outcomes in patients with BD. In addition, we explored the potential molecular underpinnings of this relationship.MethodsWeighted polygenic scores (PGSs) were computed for major depressive disorder (MDD) and depressive symptoms (DS) in BD patients from the Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen; n=2,586) who received lithium treatment. Lithium treatment outcome was assessed using the ALDA scale. Summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in MDD (130,664 cases and 330,470 controls) and DS (n=161,460) were used for PGS weighting. Associations between PGSs of depression traits and lithium treatment response were assessed by binary logistic regression. We also performed a cross-trait meta-GWAS, followed by Ingenuity® Pathway Analysis.OutcomesBD patients with a low polygenic load for depressive traits were more likely to respond well to lithium, compared to patients with high polygenic load (MDD: OR =1.64 [95%CI: 1.26-2.15], lowest vs highest PGS quartiles; DS: OR=1.53 [95%CI: 1.18-2.00]). Associations were significant for type 1, but not type 2 BD. Cross-trait GWAS and functional characterization implicated voltage-gated potassium channels, insulin-related pathways, mitogen-activated protein-kinase (MAPK) signaling, and miRNA expression.InterpretationGenetic loading to depression traits in BD patients lower their odds of responding optimally to lithium. Our findings support the emerging concept of a lithium-responsive biotype in BD.FundingSee attached details