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Much of our understanding of atmospheric circulation comes from relationships between aspects of the circulation and the mean state of the atmosphere. In particular, the concept of mean available potential energy (MAPE) has been used previously to relate the strength of the extratropical storm tracks to the zonal-mean temperature and humidity distributions. Here, we calculate for the first time the MAPE of the zonally varying (i.e., three-dimensional) time-mean state of the atmosphere including the effects of latent heating. We further calculate a local MAPE by restricting the domain to an assumed eddy size, and we partition this local MAPE into convective and nonconvective components. Local convective MAPE maximizes in the subtropics and midlatitudes, in many cases in regions of the world that are known to have intense convection. Local nonconvective MAPE has a spatial pattern similar to the Eady growth rate, although local nonconvective MAPE has the advantage that it takes into account latent heating. Furthermore, the maximum potential ascent associated with local nonconvective MAPE is related to the frequency of warm conveyor belts (WCBs), which are ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones with large impacts on weather. This maximum potential ascent can be calculated based only on mean temperature and humidity, and WCBs tend to start in regions of high maximum potential ascent on a given day. These advances in the use of MAPE are expected to be helpful to connect changes in the mean state of the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in important aspects of extratropical circulation.

The response of the Pacific Walker circulation (WC) to long-term warming remains uncertain. Here, we diagnose contributions to the WC response in comprehensive and idealized general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We find that the spread in WC response is substantial across both the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) models, implicating differences in atmospheric models in the spread in projected WC strength. Using a moist static energy (MSE) budget, we evaluate the contributions to changes in the WC strength related to changes in gross moist stability (GMS), horizontal MSE advection, radiation, and surface fluxes. We find that the multimodel mean WC weakening is mostly related to changes in GMS and radiation. Furthermore, the spread in WC response is related to the spread in GMS and radiation responses. The GMS response is potentially sensitive to parameterized convective entrainment which can affect lapse rates and the depth of convection. We thus investigate the role of entrainment in setting the GMS response by varying the entrainment rate in an idealized GCM. The idealized GCM is run with a simplified Betts-Miller convection scheme, modified to represent entrainment. The weakening of the WC with warming in the idealized GCM is dampened when higher entrainment rates are used. However, the spread in GMS responses due to differing entrainment rates is much smaller than the spread in GMS responses across CMIP6 models. Therefore, further work is needed to understand the large spread in GMS responses across CMIP6 and AMIP models.

Subgrid processes in global climate models are represented by parameterizations which are a major source of uncertainties in simulations of climate. In recent years, it has been suggested that machine-learning (ML) parameterizations based on high-resolution model output data could be superior to traditional parameterizations. Currently, both traditional and ML parameterizations of subgrid processes in the atmosphere are based on a single-column approach, which only use information from single atmospheric columns. However, single-column parameterizations might not be ideal since certain atmospheric phenomena, such as organized convective systems, can cross multiple grid boxes and involve slantwise circulations that are not purely vertical. Here we train neural networks (NNs) using non-local inputs spanning over 3$\times$3 columns of inputs. We find that including the non-local inputs improves the offline prediction of a range of subgrid processes. The improvement is especially notable for subgrid momentum transport and for atmospheric conditions associated with mid-latitude fronts and convective instability. Using an interpretability method, we find that the NN improvements partly rely on using the horizontal wind divergence, and we further show that including the divergence or vertical velocity as a separate input substantially improves offline performance. However, non-local winds continue to be useful inputs for parameterizating subgrid momentum transport even when the vertical velocity is included as an input. Overall, our results imply that the use of non-local variables and the vertical velocity as inputs could improve the performance of ML parameterizations, and the use of these inputs should be tested in online simulations in future work., Comment: 38 pages, 21 figures (7 figures in the main file)

Much of our understanding of atmospheric circulation comes from relationships between aspects of the circulation and the mean state of the atmosphere. In particular, the concept of mean available potential energy (MAPE) has been used previously to relate the strength of the extratropical storm tracks to the zonal-mean temperature and humidity distributions. Here, we calculate for the first time the MAPE of the zonally varying (i.e., three-dimensional) time-mean state of the atmosphere including the effects of latent heating. We further calculate a local MAPE by restricting the domain to an assumed eddy size, and we partition this local MAPE into convective and nonconvective components. Local convective MAPE maximizes in the subtropics and midlatitudes, in many cases in regions of the world that are known to have intense convection. Local nonconvective MAPE has a spatial pattern similar to the Eady growth rate, although local nonconvective MAPE has the advantage that it takes into account latent heating. Furthermore, the maximum potential ascent associated with local nonconvective MAPE is related to the frequency of warm conveyor belts (WCBs), which are ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones with large impacts on weather. This maximum potential ascent can be calculated based only on mean temperature and humidity, and WCBs tend to start in regions of high maximum potential ascent on a given day. These advances in the use of MAPE are expected to be helpful to connect changes in the mean state of the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in important aspects of extratropical circulation.

Future climate simulations indicate that the Mediterranean Basin will experience large low-level circulation changes during winter, characterized by a strong anomalous ridge that drives a regional precipitation decline. Previous research highlighted how shifts in stationary wave structure and the atmospheric response to reduced warming of the Mediterranean Sea relative to land could explain the development of this anomalous pressure high. Here, we expand on these results and provide new arguments for why and how the Mediterranean is projected to experience large circulation changes during winter. First, we find that zonal asymmetries in the vertical structure of stationary waves are important to explain the enhanced circulation response in the region and that these asymmetries are related through the external mode to the vertical structure of the mean zonal wind. Second, in winter, the Mediterranean is located just to the north of the Hadley cell edge and consequently is relatively free of large-scale descent; together with low near-surface static stability above the sea, this condition allows the weaker warming trend above the sea to propagate to the low troposphere and trigger a major circulation response. During summer, however, remotely forced descent and strong static stability prevent the cooling anomaly from expanding upward. Most of the intermodel scatter in the projected low-level circulation response in winter is related to the spread in upper-tropospheric dynamical trends. Importantly, because climate models exhibit too much vertical coherence over the Mediterranean, they likely overestimate the sensitivity of Mediterranean near-surface circulation to large-scale dynamical changes.

Several physical mechanisms have been proposed for projected changes in mean precipitation in the tropics under climate warming. In particular, the “wet-get-wetter” mechanism describes an amplification of the pattern of precipitation in a moister atmosphere, and the “warmer-get-wetter” mechanism describes enhanced upward motion and precipitation in regions where the increase in SST exceeds the tropical-mean increase. Studies of the current climate have shown that surface convergence over the tropical oceans is largely driven by horizontal gradients of low-level temperature, but the influence of these gradients on the precipitation response under climate warming has received little attention. Here, a simple model is applied to give a decomposition of changes in precipitation over tropical oceans in twenty-first-century climate model projections. The wet-get-wetter mechanism and changes in surface convergence are found to be of widespread importance, whereas the warmer-get-wetter mechanism is primarily limited to negative anomalies in the tropical southern Pacific. Furthermore, surface convergence is linked to gradients of boundary layer temperature using an atmospheric mixed layer model. Changes in surface convergence are found to be strongly related to changes in the Laplacian of boundary layer virtual temperature, and, to a lesser extent, the Laplacian of SST. Taken together, these results suggest that a “Laplacian-of-warming” mechanism is of comparable importance to wet get wetter and warmer get wetter for the response of precipitation to climate change over tropical oceans.

Climate models predict a distinct seasonality to future changes in daily extreme precipitation. In particular, models project that over land in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere the summer resp...

The circulation of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere has changed over recent decades, with marked decreases in extratropical cyclone activity and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in summer and increases in the fraction of precipitation that is convective in all seasons. Decreasing EKE in summer is partly explained by a weakening meridional temperature gradient, but changes in vertical temperature gradients and increasing moisture also affect the mean available potential energy (MAPE), which is the energetic reservoir from which extratropical cyclones draw. Furthermore, the relation of changes in mean thermal structure and moisture to changes in convection associated with extratropical cyclones is poorly understood. Here we calculate trends in MAPE for the Northern extratropics in summer over the years 1979-2017, and we decompose MAPE into both convective and nonconvective components. Nonconvective MAPE decreased over this period, consistent with decreases in EKE and extratropical cyclone activity, but convective MAPE increased, implying an increase in the energy available to convection. Calculations with idealized atmospheres indicate that nonconvective and convective MAPE both increase with increasing mean surface temperature and decrease with decreasing meridional surface temperature gradient, but convective MAPE is relatively more sensitive to the increase in mean surface temperature. These results connect changes in the atmospheric mean state with changes in both large-scale and convective circulations, and they suggest that extratropical cyclones can weaken even as their associated convection becomes more energetic.

Attempts to use machine learning to develop atmospheric parameterizations have mainly focused on subgrid effects on temperature and moisture, but subgrid momentum transport is also important in sim...

A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate (6–7% K −1 ), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

Tropical precipitation clusters exhibit power-law frequency distributions in area and volume (integrated precipitation), implying a lack of characteristic scale in tropical convective organization. However, it remains unknown what gives rise to the power laws and how the power-law exponents for area and volume are related to one another. Here, we explore the perspective that precipitation clusters are islands above a convective threshold on a rough column-water-vapor (CWV) topography. This perspective is supported by the agreement between the precipitation clusters and CWV islands in their frequency distributions as well as fractal dimensions. Power laws exist for CWV islands at different thresholds through the CWV topography, suggesting that the existence of power-laws is not specifically related to local precipitation dynamics, but is rather a general feature of CWV islands. Furthermore, the frequency distributions and fractal dimensions of the clusters can be reproduced when the CWV field is modeled to be self-affine with a roughness exponent of 0.3. Self-affine scaling theory relates the statistics of precipitation clusters to the roughness exponent; it also relates the power-law slopes for area and volume without involving the roughness exponent. Thus, the perspective of precipitation clusters as CWV islands provides a useful framework to consider many statistical properties of the precipitation clusters, particularly given that CWV is well-observed over a wide range of length scales in the tropics. However, the statistics of CWV islands at the convective threshold imply a smaller roughness than is inferred from the power spectrum of the bulk CWV field, and further work is needed to understand the scaling of the CWV field., Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures

A promising approach to improve climate-model simulations is to replace traditional subgrid parameterizations based on simplified physical models by machine learning algorithms that are data-driven. However, neural networks (NNs) often lead to instabilities and climate drift when coupled to an atmospheric model. Here we learn an NN parameterization from a high-resolution atmospheric simulation in an idealized domain by coarse graining the model equations and output. The NN parameterization has a structure that ensures physical constraints are respected, and it leads to stable simulations that replicate the climate of the high-resolution simulation with similar accuracy to a successful random-forest parameterization while needing far less memory. We find that the simulations are stable for a variety of NN architectures and horizontal resolutions, and that an NN with substantially reduced numerical precision could decrease computational costs without affecting the quality of simulations., 23 pages, 6 figures (2 figures in main file)

Solar geoengineering that aims to offset global warming could nonetheless alter atmospheric temperature gradients and humidity and thus affect the extratropical storm tracks. Here, we first analyze climate model simulations from experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which a reduction in incoming solar radiation balances a quadrupling of CO2. The Northern Hemisphere extratropical storm track weakens by a comparable amount in G1 as it does for increased CO2 only. The Southern Hemisphere storm track also weakens in G1, in contrast to a strengthening and poleward shift for increased CO2. Using mean available potential energy, we show that the changes in zonal‐mean temperature and humidity are sufficient to explain the different responses of storm‐track intensity. We also demonstrate similar weakening in a more complex geoengineering scenario. Our results offer insight into how geoengineering affects storm tracks, highlighting the potential for geoengineering to induce novel climate changes.

Changes in extreme precipitation are amongst the most impactful consequences of global warming, with potential effects ranging from increased flood risk and landslides to crop failures and impacts on ecosystems. Thus, understanding historical and future changes in extreme precipitation is not only important from a scientific perspective, but also has direct societal relevance.However, while most current research has focused on annual precipitation extremes and their response to warming, it has recently been noted that climate model projections show a distinct seasonality to future changes in extreme precipitation. In particular, CMIP5 models suggest that over Northern Hemisphere (NH) land the summer response is weaker than the winter response in terms of percentage changes.Here we investigate changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using observations and simulations with coupled climate models. First, we analyse observed trends from the Hadley Centre’s global climate extremes dataset (HadEX2) to investigate to what extent there is already a difference between summer and winter trends over NH land. Second, we use 40 ensemble members from the CESM Large Ensemble to characterize the role played by internal variability in trends over the historical period. Lastly, we use CMIP5 simulations to explore the possibility of a link between the seasonality of changes in precipitation extremes and decreases in surface relative humidity over land.

Regional projections of daily extreme precipitation are uncertain, but can be decomposed into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to improve understanding. While thermodynamics alone uniformly increase extreme precipitation, dynamical processes introduce regional variations.

Projections of precipitation extremes in simulations with global climate models are very uncertain in the tropics, in part because of the use of parameterizations of deep convection and model deficiencies in simulating convective organization. Here, we analyse precipitation extremes in high-resolution simulations that are run without a convective parameterization on a quasi-global aquaplanet. The frequency distributions of precipitation rates and precipitation cluster sizes in the tropics of a control simulation are similar to the observed distributions. In response to climate warming, 3 h precipitation extremes increase at rates of up to 9 % K − 1 in the tropics because of a combination of positive thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. The dynamic contribution at different latitudes is connected to the vertical structure of warming using a moist static stability. When the precipitation rates are first averaged to a daily timescale and coarse-grained to a typical global climate-model resolution prior to calculating the precipitation extremes, the response of the precipitation extremes to warming becomes more similar to what was found previously in coarse-resolution aquaplanet studies. However, the simulations studied here do not exhibit the high rates of increase of tropical precipitation extremes found in projections with some global climate models. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

The Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux is an important diagnostic for wave propagation and wave–mean flow interaction in the atmosphere. Here, two moist formulations of the EP flux are compared with the traditional dry EP flux, and their links to the surface westerlies are analyzed using reanalysis data and simulations with GCMs. The first moist formulation of the EP flux modifies only the static stability to account for latent heat release by eddies, while the second moist formulation simply replaces all potential temperatures with equivalent potential temperatures. For reanalysis data, the peak upward EP flux in the lower troposphere is farther equatorward and stronger when the moist formulations are used, with greater changes for the second moist formulation. The moist formulations have the advantage of giving a closer relationship over the seasonal cycle between the latitudes of the peak surface westerlies and the peak upward EP flux. In simulations with a comprehensive GCM, the dry and moist upward EP fluxes shift poleward by a similar amount as the climate warms. In simulations over a wider range of climates with an idealized GCM, the surface westerlies can shift both poleward and equatorward with warming, and they are influenced by an anomalous region of dry EP flux divergence near the subtropical jet. Using moist EP fluxes weakens this anomalous divergence in the idealized GCM simulations, and the shifts in the surface westerlies can then be understood through changes in the preference for equatorward or poleward wave propagation.

The entropy budget of the atmosphere is examined in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium with a cloud-system resolving model over a wide range of surface temperatures from 281 to 311 K. Irreversible phase changes and the diffusion of water vapor account for more than half of the irreversible entropy production within the atmosphere, even in the coldest simulation. As the surface temperature is increased, the atmospheric radiative cooling rate increases, driving a greater entropy sink that must be matched by greater irreversible entropy production. The entropy production resulting from irreversible moist processes increases at a similar fractional rate as the entropy sink and at a lower rate than that implied by Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. This allows the entropy production from frictional drag on hydrometeors and on the atmospheric flow to also increase with warming, in contrast to recent results for simulations with global climate models in which the work output decreases with warming. A set of approximate scaling relations is introduced for the terms in the entropy budget as the surface temperature is varied, and many of the terms are found to scale with the mean surface precipitation rate. The entropy budget provides some insight into changes in frictional dissipation in response to warming or changes in model resolution, but it is argued that frictional dissipation is not closely linked to other measures of convective vigor.

Extreme precipitation over land has increased over the wettest and driest regions and is likely to keep intensifying over the twenty-first century. This has key implications for dry regions, which may be unprepared for the potential related flooding.

Cyclones are a key element of extratropical weather and frequently lead to extreme events like wind storms and heavy precipitation. Understanding potential changes of cyclone frequency and intensity is thus essential for a proper assessment of climate change impacts. Here the behavior of extratropical cyclones under strongly varying climate conditions is investigated using idealized climate model simulations in an aquaplanet setup. A cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to assess various statistics of cyclone properties such as intensity, size, lifetime, displacement velocity, and deepening rates. In addition, a composite analysis of intense cyclones is performed. In general, the structure of extratropical cyclones in the idealized simulations is very robust, and changes in major cyclone characteristics are relatively small. Median cyclone intensity, measured in terms of minimum sea level pressure and lower-tropospheric relative vorticity, has a maximum in simulations with global mean temperature slightly warmer than present-day Earth, broadly consistent with the behavior of the eddy kinetic energy analyzed in previous studies. Maximum deepening rates along cyclone tracks behave similarly and are in agreement with linear quasigeostrophic growth rates if the effect of latent heat release on the stratification is taken into account. In contrast to moderate cyclones, the relative vorticity of intense cyclones continues to increase with warming to substantially higher temperatures, and this is associated with enhanced lower-tropospheric potential vorticity anomalies likely caused by increased diabatic heating. Moist processes may, therefore, lead to the further strengthening of intense cyclones in warmer climates even if cyclones weaken on average.

International audience; Human activity is changing Earth's climate. Now that this has been acknowledged and accepted in international negotiations, climate research needs to define its next frontiers.

The distribution of vertical velocities in the extratropical troposphere is skewed such that upward motions are faster than downward motions. This skewness is important for the intensity distribution of precipitation and for the effective static stability experienced by moist eddies. We show here that the skewness of the vertical velocity increases in magnitude as the climate warms in simulations with an idealized general circulation model (GCM), except in very warm climates. That the skewness increases with warming is consistent with studies of moist baroclinic instability which suggest that the area of updraughts should contract as the stratification approaches moist neutrality in warm climates. However, the increase in skewness with warming is much weaker in the fully nonlinear simulations as compared to what is found for unstable modes of moist baroclinic instability in the same GCM. Nonlinear equilibration to a macroturbulent state leads to a reduction in skewness in warm climates. Therefore, while the unstable modes may be relevant for some cases of cyclogenesis, they overestimate the effect of warming on the skewness of the overall distribution of the vertical velocity. Remarkably, the most unstable mode transitions from a quasi‐periodic wave to an isolated diabatic Rossby vortex at sufficiently high temperatures, with possible implications for fast‐growing disturbances in warm climates. Keywords: skewness, vertical velocity, non‐Gaussian,moist baroclinic instability, diabatic Rossby vortex, diabatic Rossby wave, effective static stability, climate change, National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS 1148594)

Precipitation-gauge observations and atmospheric reanalysis are combined to develop an analogue method for detecting heavy precipitation events based on prevailing large-scale atmospheric conditions. Combinations of atmospheric variables for circulation (geopotential height and wind vector) and moisture (surface specific humidity, column and up to 500-hPa precipitable water) are examined to construct analogue schemes for the winter [December–February (DJF)] of the “Pacific Coast California” (PCCA) region and the summer [June–August (JJA)] of the Midwestern United States (MWST). The detection diagnostics of analogue schemes are calibrated with 1979–2005 and validated with 2006–14 NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). All analogue schemes are found to significantly improve upon MERRA precipitation in characterizing the occurrence and interannual variations of observed heavy precipitation events in the MWST. When evaluated with the late twentieth-century climate model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), all analogue schemes produce model medians of heavy precipitation frequency that are more consistent with observations and have smaller intermodel discrepancies than model-based precipitation. Under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the CMIP5-based analogue schemes produce trends in heavy precipitation occurrence through the twenty-first century that are consistent with model-based precipitation, but with smaller intermodel disparity. The median trends in heavy precipitation frequency are positive for DJF over PCCA but are slightly negative for JJA over MWST. Overall, the analyses highlight the potential of the analogue as a powerful diagnostic tool for model deficiencies and its complementarity to an evaluation of heavy precipitation frequency based on model precipitation alone.

The question of climate at high obliquity is raised in the context of both exoplanet studies (e.g. habitability) and paleoclimates studies (evidence for low-latitude glaciation during the Neoproterozoic and the “Snowball Earth” hypothesis). States of high obliquity, ϕ, are distinctive in that, for ϕ ⩾ 54 ° , the poles receive more solar radiation in the annual mean than the equator, opposite to the present day situation. In addition, the seasonal cycle of insolation is extreme, with the poles alternatively “facing” the Sun and sheltering in the dark for months. The novelty of our approach is to consider the role of a dynamical ocean in controlling the surface climate at high obliquity, which in turn requires understanding of the surface winds patterns when temperature gradients are reversed. To address these questions, a coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea ice GCM configured on an Aquaplanet is employed. Except for the absence of topography and modified obliquity, the set-up is Earth-like. Two large obliquities ϕ, 54° and 90°, are compared to today’s Earth value, ϕ = 23.5°. Three key results emerge at high obliquity: (1) despite reversed temperature gradients, mid-latitudes surface winds are westerly and trade winds exist at the equator (as for ϕ = 23.5°) although the westerlies are confined to the summer hemisphere, (2) a habitable planet is possible with mid-latitude temperatures in the range 300–280 K and (3) a stable climate state with an ice cap limited to the equatorial region is unlikely. We clarify the dynamics behind these features (notably by an analysis of the potential vorticity structure and conditions for baroclinic instability of the atmosphere). Interestingly, we find that the absence of a stable partially glaciated state is critically linked to the absence of ocean heat transport during winter, a feature ultimately traced back to the high seasonality of baroclinic instability conditions in the atmosphere.

Simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium with a cloud-system resolving model are used to investigate the scaling of high percentiles of the precipitation distribution (precipitation extremes) over a wide range of surface temperatures. At surface temperatures above roughly 295 K, precipitation extremes increase with warming in proportion to the increase in surface moisture, following what is termed Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. At lower temperatures, the rate of increase of precipitation extremes depends on the choice of cloud and precipitation microphysics scheme and the accumulation period, and it differs markedly from CC scaling in some cases. Precipitation extremes are found to be sensitive to the fall speeds of hydrometeors, and this partly explains the different scaling results obtained with different microphysics schemes. The results suggest that microphysics play an important role in determining the response of convective precipitation extremes to warming, particularly when ice- and mixed-phase processes are important.

It has been proposed that the impact of moisture on atmospheric eddy circulations can be approximated using a reduced effective stratification defined in terms of a parameter λ, which quantifies the asymmetry between upward and downward motions. Here λ is analyzed for the midlatitude regime using baroclinic lifecycles computed with the Weather Research and Forecast model. Vertical velocities are compared for integrations with different moisture conditions, and the change in λ is quantified and interpreted. λ is shown to be largely insensitive to grid resolution, and the effective stratification captures the impact of moisture provided initial relative humidity is sufficiently high.

[1] Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is shown to increase rapidly with warming in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium over a wide range of surface temperatures. The increase in CAPE implies a systematic deviation of the thermal stratification from moist adiabatic that is non-negligible at high temperatures. However, cloud buoyancy remains much smaller than what CAPE would imply because entrainment is more effective in reducing buoyancy in warmer atmospheres. An entraining plume model in the limit of zero cloud buoyancy is shown to reproduce the increase in CAPE with warming if the entrainment rate is held fixed and increases in the vertical extent of convection are taken into account. These model results together with radiosonde observations are used to support a conceptual model in which entrainment plays a role in determining the thermal stratification of the tropical atmosphere.

[1] Warming in climate-change simulations reaches a local maximum in the tropical upper troposphere as expected from moist-adiabatic lapse rates. But the structure of warming varies between models and differs substantially from moist adiabatic in the extratropics. Here, we relate the vertical profile of warming to the climatological temperature profile using the vertical-shift transformation (VST). The VST captures much of the intermodel scatter in the ratio of upper- to middle-tropospheric warming in both the extratropics and tropics of simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Application of the VST to observed climatological temperatures yields warming ratios that are in the range of what is obtained from the model climatological temperatures, although biases in some model climatologies lead to substantial errors when shifted upward. Radiosonde temperature trends are consistent with an upward shift in recent decades in the Northern Hemisphere, with less-robust results in the Southern Hemisphere.

The moist available potential energy (MAPE) of a domain of air is defined as the maximum amount of kinetic energy that can be released through reversible adiabatic motions of its air parcels. The MAPE can be calculated using a parcel‐moving algorithm that finds the minimum enthalpy state for a given set of thermodynamic assumptions. However, the parcel‐moving algorithms proposed previously do not always find the minimum enthalpy state. In this article, we apply the Munkres algorithm to find the exact minimum enthalpy state and compare this exact algorithm with four inexact algorithms, including a new divide‐and‐conquer algorithm. The divide‐and‐conquer algorithm performs well in practice, while being simpler and faster than the Munkres algorithm, and it is recommended for future calculation of MAPE when the exact result is not required. Keywords: Poisson Equation, Laplacian growth, Diffusion Field, analytic solution, ramified network, Golden ratio

Climate models simulate a strong land-ocean contrast in the response of near-surface relative humidity to global warming: relative humidity tends to increase slightly over oceans but decrease substantially over land. Surface energy balance arguments have been used to understand the response over ocean but are difficult to apply over more complex land surfaces. Here, a conceptual box model is introduced, involving moisture transport between the land and ocean boundary layers and evapotranspiration, to investigate the decreases in land relative humidity as the climate warms. The box model is applied to idealized and full-complexity (CMIP5) general circulation model simulations, and it is found to capture many of the features of the simulated changes in land relative humidity. The box model suggests there is a strong link between fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean, and the greater warming over land than ocean then implies a decrease in land relative humidity. Evapotranspiration is of secondary importance for the increase in specific humidity over land, but it matters more for the decrease in relative humidity. Further analysis shows there is a strong feedback between changes in surface-air temperature and relative humidity, and this can amplify the influence on relative humidity of factors such as stomatal conductance and soil moisture., Submitted to Journal of Climate on May 1st, 2016

Many features of the general circulation of the atmosphere shift upward in response to warming in simulations of climate change with both general circulation models (GCMs) and cloud-system-resolving models. The importance of the upward shift is well known, but its physical basis and the extent to which it occurs coherently across variables are not well understood. A transformation is derived here that shows how an upward shift of a solution to the moist primitive equations gives a new approximate solution with higher tropospheric temperatures. According to the transformation, all variables shift upward with warming but with an additional modification to the temperature and a general weakening of the pressure velocity. The applicability of the vertical-shift transformation is explored using a hierarchy of models from adiabatic parcel ascents to comprehensive GCMs. The transformation is found to capture many features of the response to climate change in simulations with an idealized GCM, including the mid- and upper-tropospheric changes in lapse rate, relative humidity, and meridional wind. The transformation is less accurate when applied to simulations with more realistic GCMs, but it nonetheless captures some important features. Deviations from the simulated response are primarily due to the surface boundary conditions, which do not necessarily conform to the transformation, especially in the case of the zonal winds. The results allow for a physical interpretation of the upward shift in terms of the governing equations and suggest that it may be thought of as a coherent response of the general circulation of the mid- and upper troposphere.

Precipitation extremes increase in intensity over many regions of the globe in simulations of a warming climate, but not always consistently. Observational constraints, together with a close relationship between model responses to interannual variability and climate change, suggest a high sensitivity of tropical extreme precipitation to warming.

An idealized model of advection and condensation of water vapor is considered as a representation of processes influencing the humidity distribution along isentropic surfaces in the free troposphere. Results are presented for how the mean relative humidity distribution varies in response to changes in the distribution of saturation specific humidity and in the amplitude of a tropical moisture source. Changes in the tropical moisture source are found to have little effect on the relative humidity poleward of the subtropical minima, suggesting a lack of poleward influence despite much greater water vapor concentrations at lower latitudes. The subtropical minima in relative humidity are found to be located just equatorward of the inflection points of the saturation specific humidity profile along the isentropic surface. The degree of mean subsaturation is found to vary with the magnitude of the meridional gradient of saturation specific humidity when other parameters are held fixed. The atmospheric relevance of these results is investigated by comparison with the positions of the relative humidity minima in reanalysis data and by examining poleward influence of relative humidity in simulations with an idealized general circulation model. It is suggested that the limited poleward influence of relative humidity may constrain the propagation of errors in simulated humidity fields.

Energetic constraints on precipitation are useful for understanding the response of the hydrological cycle to ongoing climate change, its response to possible geoengineering schemes, and the limits on precipitation in very warm climates of the past. Much recent progress has been made in quantifying the different forcings and feedbacks on precipitation and in understanding how the transient responses of precipitation and temperature might differ qualitatively. Here, we introduce the basic ideas and review recent progress. We also examine the extent to which energetic constraints on precipitation may be viewed as radiative constraints and the extent to which they are confirmed by available observations. Challenges remain, including the need to better demonstrate the link between energetics and precipitation in observations and to better understand energetic constraints on precipitation at sub-global length scales.

The hydrological cycle is ultimately driven by solar energy, so it is not surprising that energy constraints affect the response of rainfall to climate change at a global level. Now analysis shows that the regional response of rainfall to greenhouse-gas-driven warming can also be understood from an energetic perspective.

A cloud-resolving model is used to investigate the effect of warming on high percentiles of precipitation (precipitation extremes) in the idealized setting of radiative-convective equilibrium. While this idealized setting does not allow for several factors that influence precipitation in the tropics, it does allow for an evaluation of the response of precipitation extremes to warming in simulations with resolved rather than parameterized convection. The methodology developed should also be applicable to less idealized simulations. Modeled precipitation extremes are found to increase in magnitude in response to an increase in sea surface temperature. A dry static energy budget is used to relate the changes in precipitation extremes to changes in atmospheric temperature, vertical velocity, and precipitation efficiency. To first order, the changes in precipitation extremes are captured by changes in the mean temperature structure of the atmosphere. Changes in vertical velocities play a secondary role and tend to weaken the strength of precipitation extremes, despite an intensification of updraft velocities in the upper troposphere. The influence of changes in condensate transports on precipitation extremes is quantified in terms of a precipitation efficiency; it does not change greatly with warming. Tropical precipitation extremes have previously been found to increase at a greater fractional rate than the amount of atmospheric water vapor in observations of present-day variability and in some climate model simulations with parameterized convection. But the fractional increases in precipitation extremes in the cloud-resolving simulations are comparable in magnitude to those in surface water vapor concentrations (owing to a partial cancellation between dynamical and thermodynamical changes), and are substantially less than the fractional increases in column water vapor., Texas Advanced Computing Center, National Science Foundation (U.S.) (TeraGrid resources)