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Predictor inputs and label data for crop yield forecasting are not always available at the same spatial resolution. We propose a deep learning framework that uses high resolution inputs and low resolution labels to produce crop yield forecasts for both spatial levels. The forecasting model is calibrated by weak supervision from low resolution crop area and yield statistics. We evaluated the framework by disaggregating regional yields in Europe from parent statistical regions to sub-regions for five countries (Germany, Spain, France, Hungary, Italy) and two crops (soft wheat and potatoes). Performance of weakly supervised models was compared with linear trend models and Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT). Higher resolution crop yield forecasts are useful to policymakers and other stakeholders. Weakly supervised deep learning methods provide a way to produce such forecasts even in the absence of high resolution yield data.

This dataset includes sample data for the United States to run the weakly supervised framework as described in the paper titled A weakly supervised framework for high resolution crop yield forecasts, accessible at https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2205.09016 The updated paper (including results from the US) is under review in Environmental Research Letters. The software implementation of the machine learning baseline is available at: https://github.com/BigDataWUR/MLforCropYieldForecasting/tree/weaksup. Data 1. County data (county-data.zip) for county-level strongly supervised models: * CROP_AREA_COUNTY_US.csv: County crop production area statistics (acres). Source: NASS (USDA-NASS, 2022). * CSSF_COUNTY_US.csv: Crop productivity indicators including total above-ground production (kg ha-1), total weight of storage organs (kg ha-1), development stage (0-2). Source: de Wit et al. (2022). * METEO_COUNTY_US.csv: Meteo data including maximum, minimum, average daily air temperature (℃); sum of daily precipitation (PREC) (mm); sum of daily evapotranspiration of short vegetation (ET0) (Penman-Monteith, Allen et al., (1998)) (mm); climate water balance = (PREC - ET0) (mm). Source: Boogaard et al. (2022). * REMOTE_SENSING_COUNTY_US.csv: Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (Smoothed) (FAPAR). Source: Copernicus GLS (2020). * SOIL_COUNTY_US.csv: Soil water holding capacity. Source: WISE Soil Property Database (Batjes, 2016). * YIELD_COUNTY_US.csv: County yield statistics (bushels/acre). Source: NASS (USDA-NASS, 2022). 2. 10-km grid data (grid-data.zip) for grid-level strongly supervised models: * COUNTY_GRIDS_US.csv: Mapping between counties and grids. * CSSF_GRIDS_US.csv: Crop productivity indicators at 10km grid level (similar to county data above). * METEO_GRIDs_US.csv: Meteo data at 10km grid level (similar to county data above). * REMOTE_SENSING_GRIDS_US.csv: FAPAR at 10km grid level (similar to county data above). * SOIL_GRID, This dataset includes sample data for the United States to run the weakly supervised framework as described in the paper titled A weakly supervised framework for high resolution crop yield forecasts, accessible at https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2205.09016 The updated paper (including results from the US) is under review in Environmental Research Letters. The software implementation of the machine learning baseline is available at: https://github.com/BigDataWUR/MLforCropYieldForecasting/tree/weaksup. Data 1. County data (county-data.zip) for county-level strongly supervised models: * CROP_AREA_COUNTY_US.csv: County crop production area statistics (acres). Source: NASS (USDA-NASS, 2022). * CSSF_COUNTY_US.csv: Crop productivity indicators including total above-ground production (kg ha-1), total weight of storage organs (kg ha-1), development stage (0-2). Source: de Wit et al. (2022). * METEO_COUNTY_US.csv: Meteo data including maximum, minimum, average daily air temperature (℃); sum of daily precipitation (PREC) (mm); sum of daily evapotranspiration of short vegetation (ET0) (Penman-Monteith, Allen et al., (1998)) (mm); climate water balance = (PREC - ET0) (mm). Source: Boogaard et al. (2022). * REMOTE_SENSING_COUNTY_US.csv: Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (Smoothed) (FAPAR). Source: Copernicus GLS (2020). * SOIL_COUNTY_US.csv: Soil water holding capacity. Source: WISE Soil Property Database (Batjes, 2016). * YIELD_COUNTY_US.csv: County yield statistics (bushels/acre). Source: NASS (USDA-NASS, 2022). 2. 10-km grid data (grid-data.zip) for grid-level strongly supervised models: * COUNTY_GRIDS_US.csv: Mapping between counties and grids. * CSSF_GRIDS_US.csv: Crop productivity indicators at 10km grid level (similar to county data above). * METEO_GRIDs_US.csv: Meteo data at 10km grid level (similar to county data above). * REMOTE_SENSING_GRIDS_US.csv: FAPAR at 10km grid level (similar to county data above). * SOIL_GRID

Many studies have applied machine learning to crop yield prediction with a focus on specific case studies. The data and methods they used may not be transferable to other crops and locations. On the other hand, operational large-scale systems, such as the European Commission's MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS), do not use machine learning. Machine learning is a promising method especially when large amounts of data are being collected and published. We combined agronomic principles of crop modeling with machine learning to build a machine learning baseline for large-scale crop yield forecasting. The baseline is a workflow emphasizing correctness, modularity and reusability. For correctness, we focused on designing explainable predictors or features (in relation to crop growth and development) and applying machine learning without information leakage. We created features using crop simulation outputs and weather, remote sensing and soil data from the MCYFS database. We emphasized a modular and reusable workflow to support different crops and countries with small configuration changes. The workflow can be used to run repeatable experiments (e.g. early season or end of season predictions) using standard input data to obtain reproducible results. The results serve as a starting point for further optimizations. In our case studies, we predicted yield at regional level for five crops (soft wheat, spring barley, sunflower, sugar beet, potatoes) and three countries (the Netherlands (NL), Germany (DE), France (FR)). We compared the performance with a simple method with no prediction skill, which either predicted a linear yield trend or the average of the training set. We also aggregated the predictions to the national level and compared with past MCYFS forecasts. The normalized RMSE (NRMSE) for early season predictions (30 days after planting) were comparable for NL (all crops), DE (all except soft wheat) and FR (soft wheat, spring barley, sunflower). For example, N

In the version of this article initially published, in the HTML, the wrong Creative Commons Attribution license (cc-by-nc rather than cc-by) was inserted. The error has been corrected in the HTML version of the article

In the version of this article initially published, in the HTML, the wrong Creative Commons Attribution license (cc-by-nc rather than cc-by) was inserted. The error has been corrected in the HTML version of the article

Pearl millet [Cenchrus americanus (L.) Morrone] is a staple food for more than 90 million farmers in arid and semi-arid regions of sub-Saharan Africa, India and South Asia. We report the ∼1.79 Gb draft whole genome sequence of reference genotype Tift 23D2B1-P1-P5, which contains an estimated 38,579 genes. We highlight the substantial enrichment for wax biosynthesis genes, which may contribute to heat and drought tolerance in this crop. We resequenced and analyzed 994 pearl millet lines, enabling insights into population structure, genetic diversity and domestication. We use these resequencing data to establish marker trait associations for genomic selection, to define heterotic pools, and to predict hybrid performance. We believe that these resources should empower researchers and breeders to improve this important staple crop.

Pearl millet [Cenchrus americanus (L.) Morrone] is a staple food for more than 90 million farmers in arid and semi-arid regions of sub-Saharan Africa, India and South Asia. We report the ∼1.79 Gb draft whole genome sequence of reference genotype Tift 23D2B1-P1-P5, which contains an estimated 38,579 genes. We highlight the substantial enrichment for wax biosynthesis genes, which may contribute to heat and drought tolerance in this crop. We resequenced and analyzed 994 pearl millet lines, enabling insights into population structure, genetic diversity and domestication. We use these resequencing data to establish marker trait associations for genomic selection, to define heterotic pools, and to predict hybrid performance. We believe that these resources should empower researchers and breeders to improve this important staple crop.