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Antarctica has unique areas that expose blue ice, which contrast to most of the continent (~98%) that is covered by snow. Some of these blue ice areas (BIAs) contain meteorite concentrations and (very) old ice, making them very valuable for understanding our Solar System and the climate of the past, respectively. Meteorites and old ice become accessible through ablative processes that remove upper layers of ice and leave embedded material exposed on the surface. As a result, very old ice has been found in blue ice areas (>2 million years old), and >60% of meteorites retrieved on Earth come from Antarctica.However, not all BIAs act as figurative gateways to travel in time and space. Different processes need to combine favorably to find meteorites and old ice. To understand where to go in Antarctica, we accessed and combined various remote sensing data in a deep-learning framework to identify BIAs. By using a multi-sensor approach, we could also detect blue ice under temporary snow covers. Moreover, we created a map of potential meteorite collection sites using machine learning. The analyses showed that the ice flow velocity, the exposure of ice, the surface slope, and the extreme surface temperature are the most important indicators for the presence of meteorites. The machine-learning framework also allowed us to project how the presence of meteorites is to change in the future. Next, we will use data-driven techniques to direct old ice sampling efforts in BIAs., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR. publishedVersion

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Climatic variabilities on millennial and longer time scales with a bipolar seesaw pattern have been documented in paleoclimatic records, but their frequencies, relationships with mean climatic state, and mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding the processes and sensitivities that underlie these changes will underpin better understanding of the climate system and projections of its future change. We investigate the long-term characteristics of climatic variability using a new ice-core record from Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, combined with an existing long record from the Dome C ice core. Antarctic warming events over the past 720,000 years are most frequent when the Antarctic temperature is slightly below average on orbital time scales, equivalent to an intermediate climate during glacial periods, whereas interglacial and fully glaciated climates are unfavourable for a millennial-scale bipolar seesaw. Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

The recovery of a 1.5 million yr long ice core from Antarctica represents a keystone of our understanding of Quaternary climate, the progression of glaciation over this time period and the role of greenhouse gas cycles in this progression. Here we tackle the question of where such ice may still be found in the Antarctic ice sheet. We can show that such old ice is most likely to exist in the plateau area of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) without stratigraphic disturbance and should be able to be recovered after careful presite selection studies. Based on a simple ice and heat flow model and glaciological observations, we conclude that positions in the vicinity of major domes and saddle position on the East Antarctic Plateau will most likely have such old ice in store and represent the best study areas for dedicated reconnaissance studies in the near future. In contrast to previous ice core drill site selections, however, we strongly suggest significantly reduced ice thickness to avoid bottom melting. For example for the geothermal heat flux and accumulation conditions at Dome C, an ice thickness lower than but close to about 2500 m would be required to find 1.5 Myr old ice (i.e. more than 700 m less than at the current EPICA Dome C drill site). Within this constraint, the resolution of an Oldest-Ice record and the distance of such old ice to the bedrock should be maximized to avoid ice flow disturbances, for example, by finding locations with minimum geothermal heat flux. As the geothermal heat flux is largely unknown for the EAIS, this parameter has to be carefully determined beforehand. In addition, detailed bedrock topography and ice flow history has to be reconstructed for candidates of an Oldest-Ice ice coring site. Finally, we argue strongly for rapid access drilling before any full, deep ice coring activity commences to bring datable samples to the surface and to allow an age check of the oldest ice., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Ice rises situated in the ice-shelf belt around Antarctica have a spatially confined flow regime with local ice divides. Beneath the divides, ice stratigraphy often develops arches with amplitudes that record the divide's horizontal residence time andsurface elevation changes. To investigate the evolution of Derwael Ice Rise, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, we combine radar and GPS data from three consecutive surveys, with a two-dimensional, full Stokes, thermomechanically-coupled, transient ice-flow model. We find that the surface mass balance (SMB) is higher on the upwind and lower on the downwind slopes. Near the crest, the SMB is anomalously low and causes arches to form in the shallow stratigraphy, observable by radar. In deeper ice, arches are consequently imprinted by both SMB and ice rheology (Raymond effect). The data show how arch amplitudes decrease as along-ridge slope increases, emphasizing that the lateral positioning of radar cross-sections is important for the arch interpretation. Using the model with three rheologies (isotropic with n = 3,4.5 and anisotropic with n = 3), we show that Derwael Ice Rise is close to steady-state, but is best explained using ice anisotropy and moderate thinning. Our preferred, albeit notunique, scenario suggests that the ice divide has existed for at least 5000 years and lowered at approximately 0.03 m a−1 over the last 3400 years. Independent of the specific thinning scenario, our modeling suggests that Derwael Ice Rise has exhibited a local flow regime at least since the Mid-Holocene.

Ice rises play key roles in buttressing the neighbouring ice shelves and potentially provide palaeoclimate proxies from ice cores drilled near their divides. Little is known, however, about their influence on local climate and surface mass balance (SMB). Here we combine 12 years (2001–12) of regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2) output at high horizontal resolution (5.5 km) with recent observations from weather stations, ground-penetrating radar and firn cores in coastal Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, to describe climate and SMB variations around ice rises. We demonstrate strong spatial variability of climate and SMB in the vicinity of ice rises, in contrast to flat ice shelves, where they are relatively homogeneous. Despite their higher elevation, ice rises are characterized by higher winter temperatures compared with the flat ice shelf. Ice rises strongly influence SMB patterns, mainly through orographic uplift of moist air on the upwind slopes. Besides precipitation, drifting snow contributes significantly to the ice-rise SMB. The findings reported here may aid in selecting a representative location for ice coring on ice rises, and allow better constraint of local ice-rise as well as regional ice-shelf mass balance.

The recovery of a 1.5 million yr long ice core from Antarctica represents a keystone of our understanding of Quaternary climate, the progression of glaciation over this time period and the role of greenhouse gas cycles in this progression. Here we tackle the question of where such ice may still be found in the Antarctic ice sheet. We can show that such old ice is most likely to exist in the plateau area of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) without stratigraphic disturbance and should be able to be recovered after careful pre-site selection studies. Based on a simple ice and heat flow model and glaciological observations, we conclude that positions in the vicinity of major domes and saddle position on the East Antarctic Plateau will most likely have such old ice in store and represent the best study areas for dedicated reconnaissance studies in the near future. In contrast to previous ice core drill site selections, however, we strongly suggest significantly reduced ice thickness to avoid bottom melting. For example for the geothermal heat flux and accumulation conditions at Dome C, an ice thickness lower than but close to about 2500 m would be required to find 1.5 Myr old ice (i.e., more than 700 m less than at the current EPICA Dome C drill site). Within this constraint, the resolution of an Oldest-Ice record and the distance of such old ice to the bedrock should be maximized to avoid ice flow disturbances, for example, by finding locations with minimum geothermal heat flux. As the geothermal heat flux is largely unknown for the EAIS, this parameter has to be carefully determined beforehand. In addition, detailed bedrock topography and ice flow history has to be reconstructed for candidates of an Oldest-Ice ice coring site. Finally, we argue strongly for rapid access drilling before any full, deep ice coring activity commences to bring datable samples to the surface and to allow an age check of the oldest ice.

Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean1, 2. The latter is controlled by the acceleration of ice flow and subsequent thinning of fast-flowing marine-terminating outlet glaciers3. Quantifying the future dynamic contribution of such glaciers to sea-level rise (SLR) remains a major challenge because outlet glacier dynamics are poorly understood4. Here we present a glacier flow model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini. We use this model to simulate behaviour of four major marine-terminating outlet glaciers, which collectively drain about 22 per cent of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing from a mid-range future warming scenario that predicts warming by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, we project a contribution of 19 to 30 millimetres to SLR from these glaciers by 2200. This contribution is largely (80 per cent) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. After initial increases, however, dynamic losses from these four outlets remain relatively constant and contribute to SLR individually at rates of about 0.01 to 0.06 millimetres per year. These rates correspond to ice fluxes that are less than twice those of the late 1990s, well below previous upper bounds5. For a more extreme future warming scenario (warming by 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100), the projected losses increase by more than 50 per cent, producing a cumulative SLR of 29 to 49 millimetres by 2200.

Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models that are able to robustly simulate grounding line migration. We present results of an intercomparison exercise for marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no effects of lateral buttressing). Unique steady state grounding line positions exist for ice sheets on a downward sloping bed, while hysteresis occurs across an overdeepened bed, and stable steady state grounding line positions only occur on the downward-sloping sections. Models based on the shallow ice approximation, which does not resolve extensional stresses, do not reproduce the approximate analytical results unless appropriate parameterizations for ice flux are imposed at the grounding line. For extensional-stress resolving “shelfy stream” models, differences between model results were mainly due to the choice of spatial discretization. Moving grid methods were found to be the most accurate at capturing grounding line evolution, since they track the grounding line explicitly. Adaptive mesh refinement can further improve accuracy, including fixed grid models that generally perform poorly at coarse resolution. Fixed grid models, with nested grid representations of the grounding line, are able to generate accurate steady state positions, but can be inaccurate over transients. Only one full- Stokes model was included in the intercomparison, and consequently the accuracy of shelfy stream models as approximations of full-Stokes models remains to be determined in detail, especially during transients.

Ice-penetrating radar profiles across the grounding line of a small ice-rise promontory located within the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in the Dronning Maud Land sector of East Antarctica show downward dipping englacial radar-detected reflectors. Model results indicate that this reflector pattern is best fit by including basal melting of at least 15 cm a-1. This rate of melting is low compared with rates observed on larger ice shelves in both West and East Antarctica. Ice cores extracted from a rift system close to the ice-rise promontory show several meters of marine ice accreted beneath the shelf. These observations of low rates of basal melting, and limited distribution of accreted marine ice suggest that either Antarctic surface water may reach the ice shelf base or that circulation beneath the shelf is likely dominated by the production of high salinity shelf water rather than the incursion of circumpolar deep water, implying a weak sub-shelf circulation system here. Many of the ice shelves located along the coast of Dronning Maud Land are, like Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, characterized by frequent ice rises and promontories. Therefore, it is highly likely that these are also of shallow bathymetry and are subject to similarly weak side-shelf basal melting and refreezing.

We present the results of the first ice sheet model intercomparison project for higher-order and full Stokes ice sheet models. These models are validated in a series of six benchmark experiments of which one has an analytical solution under simplifying assumptions. Five of the tests are diagnostic and one experiment is prognostic or time dependent, for both 2-D and 3-D geometries. The results show a good convergence of the different models even for high aspect ratios. A clear distinction can be made between higher-order models and those that solve the full system of equations. The latter show a significantly better agreement with each other as well as with analytical solutions, which demonstrates that they are hardly influenced by the used numerics.