Search

Mid-latitude extreme cold outbreaks are associated with disruptions of the polar vortex, which often happen abruptly in connection to a sudden stratospheric warming. Understanding global warming (particularly Arctic amplification) impacts on forecasting such events is challenging for the scientific community. Here we apply clustering analysis on the Northern Annular Mode to identify surface precursors and the governing mechanisms causing polar vortex disruption events. Two clusters of vortex breakdown emerge; 65% of the events, mainly displacements, are associated with high-latitude Ocean warming in the North Pacific and in Barents-Kara Sea. Such warming may cause large scale modifications of the tropospheric flow that favors a slowdown of the stratospheric vortex. The persistence of Ocean surface temperature patterns favors polar vortex disruptions, potentially improving prediction skills at the sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales.Extreme winter weather is linked to cold arctic outbreaks when the polar air mass spills frigid air to mid-latitudes. This phenomenon often follows weak polar vortex (in extreme cases a Sudden Stratospheric Warming) episodes. Forecasting such events is challenging as many climatic components can be involved. In this study, it is found that 65% of the events start with a certain surface air mass distribution (Low Pressure over the North Pacific, High Pressure over Eurasia). Such distribution is triggered by high latitude ocean warming corresponding to warm temperature anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean and Sea Ice loss in Barents-Kara seas. This result helps predicting the probability of polar vortex disruptions in winter, potentially leading to enhanced sub-seasonal to seasonal cold outbreaks forecast.Around 65% of weak polar vortex (WPV) events are preceded by tropospheric pressure anomalies High-latitude ocean warming explains tropospheric air mass modification, which favors upward wave flux that disrupts the stratosphere Probabilist

The Island Mass Effect (IME) around the Maldives is responsible for intense blooms with distinct seasonal patterns. These blooms sustain the fishing industry of the archipelagic nation, a vital source of income that occupies about 30% of the population. Through high resolution ocean simulations, we explore the physical processes responsible for the increased productivity and its observed variability, and their sensitivity to changes in land distribution. Year-round the frictional break of the currents in the presence of shallow bathymetry produces a strong vertical shear in the flow that favors vertical mixing, independently of the currents direction. The impact of this mixing is visible at the ocean surface during March and April, when the mixed-layer is shallow and the ocean currents are generally weak. A different mechanism than observed in spring modulates the IME during the monsoon seasons, in both winter and summer, when the zonal currents forced by the strong winds cross the archipelago: the flow accelerates while squeezing between the atolls, giving rise to intense wakes, and strong upwelling originates in the lees in response to the kilometer-scale flow divergence. This upwelling creates an asymmetric cooling signal in the lee of the islands and obfuscates the effects of the enhanced vertical mixing. The land reclamation efforts being planned on some of the islands may undercut the upwelling that drives the blooms during the monsoon seasons.

Aerosols significantly affect cloud microphysics and energy budget in different ways. The contribution of the direct, semi-direct, and indirect effects of aerosols on radiation are here investigated over the North Atlantic tropical ocean under different aerosol loadings. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model is used to perform a set of numerical idealized experiments, which are forced with prescribed aerosol profiles. We evaluate the effects of aerosols on modeled shallow clouds and surface radiative budget. The results indicate that large aerosol loadings are associated with enhanced cloudiness and reduced precipitation. While the change in rainfall is mainly due to the larger number of smaller droplets, the change in cloudiness is attributed to the effects of absorbing aerosols, mainly dust particles, which are responsible for a rise of temperature that feeds back onto specific humidity. As in the boundary layer the increase of moisture dominates, the net effect is a higher relative humidity, which favors the formation of thin low non-precipitating clouds. The feedback accounts for a dynamical change in the lower troposphere: shortwave radiation absorption increases temperature at the top of the marine atmospheric boundary-layer and reduces entrainment of warm and dry air, increasing low level moisture content. Despite the overall increase in cloudiness, daytime cloud cover is reduced. The semi-direct effect of aerosols on clouds results in a warming of the surface, opposite to the indirect effect.

Centennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the absence of external forcing has been identified in several climate models, but proposed mechanisms differ considerably. Therefore, better understanding of processes governing AMOC variability at these timescales is needed. Here, we analyze numerical simulations with PlaSim-LSG, an Earth System Model Intermediate Complexity (EMIC), which exhibits strong multicentennial oscillations of AMOC strength under constant pre-industrial boundary conditions. We identify a novel mechanism in which these oscillations are driven by salinity anomalies from the Arctic Ocean, which can be attributed to changes in high-latitude precipitation. We further corroborate our findings by conducting a set of millennial-length sensitivity experiments, and we interpret the mechanism by formulating a three-box model which qualitatively reproduces regular oscillations of the AMOC. While PlaSim-LSG lacks complexity compared to state-of-the-art models, our results reveal that precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) change in the Arctic is a physically plausible driver of centennial-scale AMOC variability. We discuss how this mechanism might be most relevant in climate states warmer than the present-day, raising questions about the state-dependence of multicentennial AMOC variability.

Increased Net Primary Productivity (NPP) around small islands have been documented worldwide. Despite having been known for decades, the interactions between physical and biogeochemical processes behind this phenomenon – that takes the name of Island Mass Effect –remain unclear. In this paper we review the physical processes involved while proposing a method to identify the prevailing mechanisms by analyzing their imprint on NPP and Sea Surface Temperature (SST). These mechanisms can be quite different, but all enhance vertical exchanges, increasing the input of nutrients in the euphotic layer and favoring biological productivity. Nutrient-rich deeper waters are brought up to the surface through upwelling and mixing, leaving a cold imprint on the SST as well. Here we analyze satellite data of SST and NPP around small islands and archipelagos to catalog the physical mechanisms that favor the Island Mass Effect, with the aid of oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis. The multiplicity of these processes and the convolution of their interactions highlight the complexity of the physical forcing on the biomass production and the uniqueness of each island. However, analysis from 19 small islands throughout the tropics shows that two kinds of SST patterns emerge, depending on the size and altitude of the island. Around islands with considerable elevation and greatest diameters, cold/warm anomalies, most likely corresponding to upwelling/downwelling zones, emerge. This signal can be mainly ascribed to oceanic and atmospheric forcing. Around small islands, on the other hand, warm anomalies do not appear and only local cooling, associated with current-island interactions, is found. In the vicinity of a single island, more than one process responsible for the increased nutrient input into the euphotic layer might coexist, the prevailing one varying along the year and depending on the strength and direction of the incoming atmospheric and oceanic flow.

Central Asian orography (namely the Tibetan and Mongolian plateaux) sets important features of the winter climate over eastern Asia and the Pacific. By deflecting the mid-latitude jet polewards it contributes to the formation of the Siberian high and, on the lee side, to the advection of dry cold continental air over the eastern Asian coast and the Pacific Ocean, where atmospheric instability and cyclogenesis thrive. While the mechanic forcing by the orography is assessed in a number of modelling studies, it is still not clear how near-surface temperature over the two most prominent orographic barriers of the central Asian continent - the Tibetan and Mongolian plateaux - influences the winter climate. The problem is particularly relevant in view of a well-known cold bias in state-of-the-art climate models in proximity to the Tibetan Plateau, likely related to the modelling of land processes and land-atmosphere interaction over complex orography. Here we take advantage of the large spread in near-surface temperature over the central Asian plateaux within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to study how colder-than-average Asian plateau temperatures impact the atmospheric circulation. Based on composites of the CMIP6 models' climatologies showing the coldest Tibetan Plateau conditions, we find that such negative temperature anomalies appear to amplify the atmospheric response to orography, with an intensification of the eastern Asian winter monsoon and of the equatorward flank of the Pacific jet. The results of the CMIP6 composite analysis are supported by experiments run with an intermediate-complexity atmospheric model, forced by a similar pattern of cold surface temperatures over the central Asian plateaux. Within this setting, the relative influence of the Tibetan and the Mongolian Plateau surface conditions is analysed. Based on the results reported in this work we project that advances in the modelling of the land energy budget over the ele

Climate change has a strong impact on the environment in mountain areas, where ecosystems have adapted to climatic conditions that change with elevation. In this study, the response of temperature and precipitation climatic indices in the complex orography setting of the Great Alpine Region is discussed. The high-resolution gridded dataset that is presented has been produced with the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) convection permitting regional model. Two 30-year periods have been considered (1979–2008, 2039–2068), obtained by downscaling global climate simulations with historical setting and RCP8.5 emission scenario. Both daily temperature and precipitation statistics have been found to be significantly different in the two periods, consisting in an overall projected warming and drying of the region. The dependence of the projected changes on elevation is highlighted, indicating a larger warming at medium and high elevations as well as a limited or nonexisting drying at high elevations. Physical mechanisms at the base of those differences are presented and discussed.

Many cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have been developed in the past to study the climatology of extratropical cyclones. However, all CDTMs have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This naturally leads to cyclone track climatologies with inconsistent physical characteristics. More than that, it is typical for CDTMs to produce a non-negligible number of tracks of weak atmospheric features, which do not correspond to large-scale or mesoscale vortices and can differ significantly between CDTMs. Lack of consensus in CDTM outputs and the inclusion of significant numbers of uncertain tracks therein have long prohibited the production of a commonly accepted reference dataset of extratropical cyclone tracks. Such a dataset could allow comparable results on the analysis of storm track climatologies and could also contribute to the evaluation and improvement of CDTMs. To cover this gap, we present a new methodological approach that combines overlapping tracks from different CDTMs and produces composite tracks that concentrate the agreement of more than one CDTM. In this study we apply this methodology to the outputs of 10 well-established CDTMs which were originally applied to ERA5 reanalysis in the 42-year period of 1979-2020. We tested the sensitivity of our results to the spatiotemporal criteria that identify overlapping cyclone tracks, and for benchmarking reasons, we produced five reference datasets of subjectively tracked cyclones. Results show that climatological numbers of composite tracks are substantially lower than the ones of individual CDTMs, while benchmarking scores remain high (i.e., counting the number of subjectively tracked cyclones captured by the composite tracks). Our results show that composite tracks tend to describe more intense and longer-lasting cyclones with more distinguished early, mature and decay stages than the cyclone tracks produced by individual CDTMs. Ranking the composite tracks according to their

The thermal air–sea interaction mechanism that modulates the atmospheric mixing due to sea-surface temperature (SST) variability is studied with long-term consistent satellite records. Statistical analyses of daily and instantaneous wind and SST data are performed over the major western boundary currents (WBCs). This wind–SST coupling, which is mediated by atmospheric mixing, is found to be very relevant on daily, and even shorter, time scales. Co-located and simultaneous SST and surface wind fields (from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and Advanced Scatterometer data) reveal that the atmosphere responds instantaneously to the presence of SST structures with a larger coupling coefficient with respect to daily and monthly time-averaged fields. The coupling strength varies seasonally over WBCs in the Northern Hemisphere, with wintertime coupling being the lowest. Reanalysis data show that this behaviour is related to the seasonality of the air–sea temperature difference over the region of interest. Over the Northern Hemisphere WBCs, dry and cold continental air masses drive very unstable conditions, associated with very weak thermal air–sea coupling.

Sea surface temperature (SST) is characterized by abundant warm and cold structures that influence the overlying atmospheric boundary layer dynamics through two different mechanisms. First, turbulence and large eddies in the lower troposphere are affected by atmospheric stability, which can be modified by local SST, resulting in enhanced vertical mixing and larger surface winds over warmer waters. Second, the thermodynamic adjustment of air density to the underlying SST structures and the subsequent changes in atmospheric pressure drive secondary circulations. This paper aims to disentangle the effects of these processes and explore the environmental conditions that favor them. Two main environmental variables are considered: the large-scale air–sea temperature difference (proxy for stability) and wind speed. Using 5 years of daily reanalyses data, we investigate the 10-m wind response to SST structures. Based on linear regression between wind divergence and SST derivatives, we show that both mechanisms operate over a large spectrum of conditions. Ten-meter wind divergence is strongly impacted by the local SST via its effect on vertical mixing for midwind regimes in slightly unstable to near-neutral conditions, whereas the secondary circulation is important in two distinct regimes: low wind speed with a slightly unstable air column and high background wind speed with a very unstable air column. The first regime is explained by the prolonged Lagrangian time that the air parcel stays over an SST structure while the second one is related to strong heat fluxes at the air–sea interface, which greatly modify the marine atmospheric boundary layer properties. Location and frequency of the environmentally favorable conditions are discussed, as well as the response in low-cloud cover and rainfall.

Asthenosphere-lithosphere interactions modulated by surface processes generate outstanding topographies and sedimentary basins, but the nature of these interactions and the mechanisms through which they control the evolution of extensional tectonic settings are elusive. Basal lithospheric shearing due to plume-related mantle flow leads to extensional lithospheric rupturing and associated magmatism, rock exhumation, and topographic uplift away from the plume axis by a distance inversely correlated to the lithospheric elastic thickness. When moisturized air encounters a topographic barrier, it rises, decompresses, and saturates, leading to enhanced erosion on the windward side of the uplifted terrain. Orographic precipitation and asymmetric erosional unloading facilitate strain localization and lithospheric rupturing on the wetter and more eroded side of an extensional system. This simple analytical model is validated against thermo-mechanical numerical experiments where a rheologically stratified lithosphere above an asthenospheric plume is subject to fluvial erosion proportional to stream power during extension. Our modeling results are consistent with Paleogene mantle upwelling and flood basalts in Ethiopia synchronous to distal initiation of lithospheric stretching/rupturing in the Gulf of Aden, which progressively propagates into the Red Sea. The present-day asymmetric topography and extensional structures in the Main Ethiopian Rift may also be an effect of a Neogene-to-present orographic erosional gradient. Although inherently related to the lithosphere rheology, the evolution of continental rifts appears even more conditioned by the mantle and surface dynamics than previously thought.

European wintertime precipitation is known to be skilfully estimated in reanalysis data and model simulations since it is highly correlated with large scale, low frequency modes of variability, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since the NAO is mainly a wintertime mode of variability, the skill of estimating precipitation becomes more limited in other seasons, most importantly in summer, when precipitation is mainly a result of mesoscale convection. In this study, we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to show the added value of using a high resolution, convection-permitting model to estimate precipitation extremes. The results show that WRF succeeds to correct the failure of ERA-Interim reanalysis to capture the positive trends over the last decades of European extreme precipitation in summer and transition seasons, that are indicated by observational data (E-OBS) and previous literature. Partial improvements are evident using ERA5 reanalysis, specifically in Spring and in Autumn. In winter, changes in European extreme precipitation over the last decades are dominated by variations in the NAO index, and are well reproduced both in reanalysis data and in the high resolution WRF downscaling.

Using 25 years of ERA5 reanalysis data, this study shows that wind divergence is partially driven by small-scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns via their effect on the boundary layer stability. Moreover, strong warm-to-cold fronts (the upper quartile) are associated with a mean increase of cloud cover of 10% ± 5% and a mean increase in the probability of a rain event of 15% ± 6%, with respect to the average values. The cloud and rainfall dependence on SST fronts is more pronounced in Fall, probably due to the stronger SST gradients present at the end of the summer season.

Thermal structures at the sea surface are known to affect the overlying atmospheric dynamics over various spatio-temporal scales, from hourly and sub-kilometric to annual and O(1,000 km). The relevant mechanisms at play are generally identified by means of correlation coefficients (in space or time) or by linear regression analysis using appropriate couples of variables. For fine spatial scales, where sea surface temperature (SST) gradients get stronger, the advection might disrupt these correlations and, thus, mask the action of such mechanisms, just because of the chosen metrics. For example, at the oceanic sub-mesoscale, around 1–10 km and hourly time scales, the standard metrics used to identify the pressure adjustment mechanism (that involves the Laplacian of sea surface temperature, SST, and the wind divergence) may suffer from this issue, even for weak wind conditions. By exploiting high-resolution realistic numerical simulations with ad hoc SST forcing fields, we introduce some new metrics to evaluate the action of the pressure adjustment atmospheric response to the surface oceanic thermal structures. It is found that the most skillful metrics is based on the wind divergence and the SST second spatial derivative evaluated in the across direction of a locally defined background wind field.

Even though winter land–sea thermal contrast (LSC) is expected to undergo a strong weakening in the future warmer climate, its effects have been poorly investigated. Here we run a set of idealized winter simulations featuring reduced LSC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics, or in individual extratropical sectors of the NH (Atlantic and Pacific), using an intermediate-complexity atmospheric general circulation model. Reduced LSC is obtained by imposing a warming of surface land temperatures in East Asia and North America. For similar warming intensities over the two regions, the response of the model to East Asia forcing is significantly stronger and dominates the response to the sum of the two forcing patterns. We find that the LSC reduction causes a weakening and poleward shift of the midlatitude jet streams, and a strong interference with zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2. In particular, East Asian warming reduces the amplitude of waves 1 and 2, producing a strengthening of the stratospheric vortex, while a weaker vortex due to a moderate amplification of wave 1 is detected when warming North America. Eventually, stratospheric signals propagate downward in the troposphere affecting the midlatitude winter NH even remotely from the forcing. In this work we pinpoint some mechanisms by which weakened winter LSC influences the NH extratropical circulation: the results may become useful to interpret the response to long-term projections displaying reduced LSC along with other climate change forcing patterns.

Aerosols play a crucial role in climate through different feedback mechanisms, affecting radiation, clouds, and air column stability. This study focuses on the altitude dependence of the cloud-mediated indirect effects of aerosols in the Great Alpine Region (GAR), an area characterized by high pollution levels from anthropic activities in the Po Valley and a complex orography with some of the highest mountains in Europe. Using a regional atmospheric model, 5-year-long convective-permitting sensitivity experiments have been run with different surface aerosol fluxes. The results show that seasonal mean cloud cover, temperature, and precipitations are affected by the aerosol concentrations in the air column and that the response to pollution is both elevation- and season-dependent. The overall cloud cover increase with aerosol levels leads to either surface cooling or warming depending on the surface albedo (snow covered or not). Furthermore, different types of clouds have a different response: while the lifetime of low-pressure-system clouds and orographic clouds is generally increased at high levels of aerosols, convective clouds (typical of the summer season) can decrease at high levels of pollution due to the reduction in strong updrafts associated with an increased air column stability.

The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation are modes of climate variability affecting temperature and precipitation in the mid-latitudes. Here we use reanalysis data and climate model simulations of historical and warm climates to show that the relationship between the two oscillations changes with climate warming. The two modes are currently highly correlated, as both are strongly influenced by the downward propagation of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies into the troposphere. When considering a very warm climate scenario, the hemispherically defined Arctic Oscillation pattern shifts to reflect variability of the North Pacific storm track, while the regionally defined North Atlantic Oscillation pattern remains stable. The stratosphere remains an important precursor for North Atlantic Oscillation, and surface Eurasian and Aleutian pressure anomalies precede stratospheric anomalies. Idealized general circulation model simulations suggest that these modifications are linked to the stronger warming of the Pacific compared with the slower warming of the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclones generate a large and wide cold wake along their trajectories, which conditions the subsequent evolution of the tropical cyclone themselves. The cold wakes persist for weeks, impacting both the upper ocean, the air‐sea fluxes, and the atmosphere. The study by Z. Ma et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088873) for the first time analyzes a composite of remotely sensed data sets to show that cold wakes modify surface winds and reduce cloud coverage and rainfall. These results contribute to shedding light on the mechanisms at the origin of the air‐sea feedbacks, which can differ at different latitudes depending on the stability of the marine atmospheric boundary layer. The work stimulates further research to assess whether the cloud cover anomalies induced by tropical cyclones significantly modify the radiative budget of the Earth.

Using a combination of multi-directional SAR and TIR measurements, the Harmony Earth Explorer 10 mission candidate will provide high resolution simultaneous measurements of surface stress, surface currents SST and wave spectra over oceans, 3-D deformation vectors over solid Earth, and time-series of surface elevation changes over volcanic areas and land ice masses. This will serve a series of science objectives aimed at better understating multi-scale processed and feedbacks in the Earth System.

The frequency of coral bleaching events has been increasing in recent decades due to the temperature rise registered in most regions near the ocean. Their occurrence in the Maldivian Archipelago has been observed in the months following the peak of strong El Nino events. Bleaching has not been uniform, and some reefs have been only marginally impacted. Here, we use satellite observations and a regional ocean model to explore the spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and quantify the relative magnitude of ENSO-related episodes with respect to the recent warming. In line with other studies, it is confirmed that the long-term trend in SST significantly increases the frequency of stress conditions for the Maldivian corals. It is also found that the interaction between currents and the steep bathymetry is responsible for a local cooling of about 0.2 degrees C in the Archipelago during the warmest season, with respect to the surrounding waters. This cooling largely reduces the frequency of mortality conditions.

Air and sea interact on a wide range of scales, shaping climate and influencing weather. The direct effect of sea surface temperature (SST) structures on the extratropical atmosphere at the daily time-scale is generally masked by the large variability associated with atmospheric dynamics. With 25 years of daily SST and surface wind observational products, obtained with data from buoys, satellite and atmospheric analysis in the Mediterranean, we show that strong surface wind convergence preferentially occurs when the air encounters a cold SST front. The mechanism responsible for the influence of ocean fronts on surface winds is rooted in the thermal disequilibrium that emerges at the air–sea interface, where cold water enhances the stability of the boundary layer, decoupling surface winds from the stronger winds aloft. Surface convergence drives upward motion which, under appropriate conditions, favours cloud formation. Thus, these results suggest that weather forecast models need to properly represent the small-scale ocean thermal structures, which could affect rainfall.

Established theories ascribe much of the observed long‐term Cenozoic climate cooling to atmospheric carbon consumption by erosion and weathering of tectonically uplifted terrains, but climatic effects due to changes in magmatism and carbon degassing are also involved. At timescales comparable to those of Milankovitch cycles, late Cenozoic building/melting of continental ice sheets, erosion, and sea level changes can affect magmatism, which provides an opportunity to explore possible feedbacks between climate and volcanic changes. Existing data show that extinction of Neo‐Tethyan volcanic arcs is largely synchronous with phases of atmospheric carbon reduction, suggesting waning degassing as a possible contribution to climate cooling throughout the early to middle Cenozoic. In addition, the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the last deglaciation may be ascribed to enhanced volcanism and carbon emissions due to unloading of active magmatic provinces on continents. The deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2 points to a mutual feedback between climate and volcanism mediated by the redistribution of surface masses and carbon emissions. This may explain the progression to higher amplitude and increasingly asymmetric cycles of late Cenozoic climate oscillations. Unifying theories relating tectonic, erosional, climatic, and magmatic changes across timescales via the carbon cycle offer an opportunity for future research into the coupling between surface and deep Earth processes.

Climate change impacts are non uniformly distributed over the globe. Mountains have a peculiar response to large scale variations, documented by elevation gradients of surface temperature increase observed over many mountain ranges in the last decades. Significant changes of precipitation are expected in the changing climate and orographic effects are important in determining the amount of rainfall at a given location. It thus becomes particularly important to understand how orographic precipitation responds to global warming and to anthropogenic forcing. Here, using a large rain gauge dataset over the European Alpine region, we show that the distribution of annual precipitation among the lowlands and the mountains has varied over time, with an increase of the precipitation at the high elevations compared to the low elevations starting in the mid 20 century and peaking in the 1980s. The simultaneous increase and peak of anthropogenic aerosol load is discussed as a possible source for this interdecadal change. These results provide new insights to further our understanding and improve predictions of anthropic effects on mountain precipitations, which are fundamental for water security and management.

The Western Mediterranean Sea is often subject to intense winds, especially during the winter season. Intense winds induce surface cooling associated with anomalous ocean heat loss, upwelling and diapycnal mixing. In this study we investigate the overall impact of extreme wind events on the upper ocean in the Western Mediterranean sea using sea surface temperature and sea surface height observational data products over the period 1993-2014. We show that the largest thermal anomaly is observed a couple of days after the intense wind event and that it is dependent on the wind intensity. During winter, when deep water formation occurs, it persists for over a month. During summer, when the thermocline is very shallow, the recovery time scale is typically less than 10 days. The sea surface height signal reaches a minimum in correspondence to the intense wind, and normal conditions recover in about six weeks. Unlike for intense winds in the tropics associated to the passage of tropical cyclones, no long term sea surface height anomaly is observed, indicating that the water column heat content is not significantly modified. The observed recovery times suggest instead the possibility of feedbacks on the dynamics of intense cyclones at sub-monthly time scales.

Sea surface temperature (SST) is known to affect the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics over various spatio-temporal scales. The direct effect of SST structures on the atmosphere at the daily time scale is generally masked by the large variability associated with the large scale atmospheric dynamics. It is hypothesised that over hourly and daily time scales the control by the SST is important for convective initiation, because SST fronts can generate convergence lines, that drive upward motion. In the literature, two mechanisms have been suggested to explain the SST control on the marine atmospheric boundary layer: the former ruled by the pressure adjustment of the air column to the forcing SST and the latter linked to the vertical redistribution of horizontal momentum due to changes in the stability of the air column. In the present work, analysis of 25 years of daily SST and surface wind vectors in the Mediterranean region show that wind convergence preferentially occurs along ocean thermal fronts. This work suggests that SST structures need to be properly represented in numerical weather prediction models.

The semi-enclosed Mediterranean basin, surrounded by high mountains, is placed in a favorable location for cyclonic storms development. Most of these are extratropical cyclones of baroclinic and orographic origin, but occasionally, some low pressure systems may develop to assume features characteristic of tropical cyclones. Medicanes (MEDIterranean hurriCANES) are infrequent and small-sized tropical-like cyclones. They originate and develop over sea, and are associated with strong winds and heavy precipitations. Proper definitions and classifications for Medicanes are still partially lacking, and systematic climatic studies have appeared only in recent years. In this work, we provide climatologies of Medicanes in the Western Mediterranean basin based on multidecadal runs performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting regional model with different resolutions and setups. The detection of Medicanes is based on a cyclone tracking algorithm and on the methodology of Hart cyclone phase space diagrams. We compare the statistics of Medicanes in the historical period 1979-1998 between runs at a resolution of 11 km with different convective parameterizations and microphysics schemes and one run at a resolution of 4 km with explicitly resolved convection. We show how different convective parameterization schemes lead to different statistics of Medicanes, while the use of different microphysical schemes impacts the length of the cyclone trajectories.

The importance of the upper ocean thermal vertical structure (mixed-layer depth and stratification) in the control of the precipitation during a heavy-rain-producing mesoscale convective system is investigated by means of numerical simulations. In particular, the fully compressible, nonhydrostatic Euler equations for the atmosphere and the hydrostatic Boussinesq equations for the ocean are numerically integrated to study the effect of the ocean–atmosphere coupling both with realistic initial and boundary conditions and with simpler, analytical vertical temperature profile forcing. It is found that the action of the winds associated with the synoptic system, in which the heavy precipitation event is embedded, can entrain deep and cold water in the oceanic mixed layer, generating surface cooling. In the case of a shallow mixed layer and strongly stratified water column, this decrease in sea surface temperature can significantly reduce the air column instability and, thus, the total amount of precipitation produced.

The Western Mediterranean Sea is often subject to intense winds, especially during the winter season. The effects of the enhanced enthalpy and momentum fluxes on the upper ocean is investigated using sea surface temperature and sea surface height observational data products in the period 1993–2014. The maximum surface cooling associated with the anomalous ocean heat loss, with upwelling, and with diapycnal mixing is shown to occur a couple of days after the intense wind event, to be dependent on the wind intensity and to persist for over a month during winter, when deep water is formed, and for about 10 days during summer, when the thermocline is very shallow. The sea surface height signal reaches a minimum in correspondence of the intense wind, and normal conditions recover in about six weeks. Unlike for intense winds in the tropics, associated to tropical cyclones, no long term sea surface height anomaly is observed, indicating that the water column heat content is not significantly modified.

The mechanisms controlling the influence of the sea surface temperature (SST) structure on the surface winds are studied by means of numerical simulations run with a nonhydrostatic fully compressible state-of-the-art numerical model in a realistic midlatitudes setup, leading to the 9 October 2014 Genoa heavy rainfall event. Starting from a simulation with high-resolution submesoscale eddy-permitting SST field, the surface temperature boundary conditions are changed to enhance, reduce, or smooth the SST gradient. It is found that the marine atmospheric boundary layer responds to the submesoscale SST forcing structures over time scales of the order of hours. In particular, through the downward momentum mixing mechanism, the presence of SST horizontal gradients impacts the spatial structure of the surface wind convergence, which can displace the convective heavy rain bands that develop over the sea.

The nonlinear dynamics leading to the generation of superinertial internal waves in the ocean, in the wake of a cyclonic storm, is investigated by means of theoretical arguments and of numerical integration of the hydrostatic Boussinesq equations in a simplified, realistic, open-ocean setting. The velocity fields are first decomposed into internal baroclinic modes, and then the energy transfer across modes and at different frequencies is calculated analytically. The energy transfer across modes is dominated by the advection of high-mode m waves by the second- and third-mode waves (n = 2 or 3), which are the most energetic, and this results in the excitation of the l = m - 2 or m - 3 mode wave at the double-inertial frequency. The analyzed nonlinear interactions lead to a transfer of energy from near-inertial waves, directly excited by the storm, to superinertial waves, which typically propagate faster and farther than their lower-frequency parents and can lead to internal mixing even at large distances from the region of large air-sea momentum fluxes. Energy is found to flow from large to small scales as well. Thus, the double-inertial peak formation is thought to represent a small but fundamental intermediate step in the energy cascade toward dissipation.

The nonlinear dynamics leading to the generation of superinertial internal waves in the ocean, in the wake of a cyclonic storm, is investigated by means of theoretical arguments and of numerical integration of the hydrostatic Boussinesq equations in a simplified realistic open-ocean setting. The velocity fields are first decomposed into internal baroclinic modes and then the energy transfer across modes and at different frequencies is computed. The well known triangle condition for (k'_z, k''_z, k'''_z) triad interactions in vertical wavenumber space, |k'_z ± k''_z| = k'''_z , in the case of realistic (i.e. non constant) stratification can be transposed to a condition on the interacting triads in baroclinic mode-number space. This confirms that the (n, m, l) triad of modes interacts when |n ± m| = l and highlights that other mode-number triads can be resonant and that even the interaction of a mode with itself becomes possible. The energy transfer across modes is dominated by the advection of high mode (m) waves by the second mode wave (n = 2), which is the most energetic, and this results in the excitation of the l = m − 2 mode wave at the double inertial frequency. The analyzed nonlinear interactions lead to a transfer of energy from the near-inertial waves, directly excited by the storm, to the superinertial waves, which typically propagate faster and further than their lower frequency parents and can lead to internal mixing even at large distances from the region of the large air-sea momentum fluxes.

The thermodynamical and dynamical bases for understanding the static stability and the conditional instability of atmospheric and oceanic fluid columns are here presented. The theoretical treatment is done in parallel for air and seawater, to highlight similarities and differences between the two. Vertical kinetic energy, as a measure of the intensity of convection, is discussed in terms of instability metrics.

Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100.