Search

BackgroundMethods to identify patients at risk for incomplete physical recovery after intensive care unit (ICU) stay are lacking. Our aim was to develop a method for prediction of new-onset physical disability at ICU discharge. MethodsMultinational prospective cohort study in 10 general ICUs in Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands. Adult patients with an ICU stay >= 12 hours were eligible for inclusion. Sixteen candidate predictors were analyzed with logistic regression for associations with the primary outcome; new-onset physical disability 3 months post-ICU, defined as a >= 10 score reduction in the Barthel Index (BI) compared to baseline. ResultsOf the 572 included patients, follow-up data are available on 78% of patients alive at follow-up. The incidence of new-onset physical disability was 19%. Univariable and multivariable modeling rendered one sole predictor for the outcome: physical status at ICU discharge, assessed with the five first items of the Chelsea critical care physical assessment tool (CPAx) (odds ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81-0.93), a higher score indicating a lower risk, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.68 (95% CI 0.61-0.76). Negative predictive value for a low-risk group (CPAx score >18) was 0.88, and positive predictive value for a high-risk group (CPAx score <= 18) was 0.32. ConclusionThe ICU discharge assessment described in this study had a moderate AUC but may be useful to rule out patients unlikely to need physical interventions post-ICU. For high-risk patients, research to determine post-ICU risk factors for an incomplete rehabilitation is mandated.