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We report the present day GNSS velocities (2015-2021) and strain rates in Himachal, Kashmir and Ladakh Himalaya covering the rupture zones of the 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake and the 1905 Kangra earthquake. Geodetic strain rates estimated from GPS velocities of about 58 sites spanning last two decades of measurements indicate a mean compression rate of - 32.5 ns/year (nanostrain/year) and dilatation of - 37.3 ns/year. Seismic strain rates are estimated using both the instrumental period (1964-2021) and historical earthquakes since 1500 AD in this region. Seismic strain rates during the instrumental period of the past 50 + years indicate a mean compression rate of - 28.1 ns/year and it slightly decreases to - 21.7 ns/year after including the historical earthquakes of the past 520 years. The Azimuth of the seismic strain tensor for the instrumental and historic periods and geodetic strain tensor is broadly consistent with orientation of major faulting in this region suggesting uniform compression over a long-time interval justifying combined analysis of the strain rate field to determine the seismic potential of the region. Composite analysis of geodetic and seismic strain rates and the associated moments estimate the accumulated strain budget of ~ 1E + 21 Nm in the past 520 years which has a potential of generating future earthquake of M w  > 8 in this segment of Northwest Himalaya., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

We present GPS velocities in Kashmir valley and adjoining regions from continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) network during 2008 to 2019. Results indicate total arc normal shortening rates of ~ 14 mm/year across this transect of Himalaya that is comparable to the rates of ~ 10 to 20 mm/year reported else-where in the 2500 km Himalaya Arc. For the first time in Himalayas, arc-parallel extension rate of ~ 7 mm/year was recorded in the Kashmir valley, pointing to oblique deformation. Inverse modeling of the contemporary deformation rates in Kashmir valley indicate oblique slip of ~ 16 mm/year along the decollement with locking depth of ~ 15 km and width of ~ 145 km. This result is consistent with the recorded micro-seismicity and low velocity layer at a depth of 12 to 16 km beneath the Kashmir valley obtained from collocated broadband seismic network. Geodetic strain rates are consistent with the dislocation model and micro-seismic activity, with high strain accumulation (~ 7e-08 maximum compression) to the north of Kashmir valley and south of Zanskar ranges. Assuming the stored energy was fully released during 1555 earthquake, high geodetic strain rate since then and observed micro-seismicity point to probable future large earthquakes of Mw ~ 7.7 in Kashmir seismic gap.