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Abstract Background Fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) is a graphic technique to describe causal understanding in a wide range of applications. This practice review summarises the experience of a group of participatory research specialists and trainees who used FCM to include stakeholder views in addressing health challenges. From a meeting of the research group, this practice review reports 25 experiences with FCM in nine countries between 2016 and 2023. Results The methods, challenges and adjustments focus on participatory research practice. FCM portrayed multiple sources of knowledge: stakeholder knowledge, systematic reviews of literature, and survey data. Methodological advances included techniques to contrast and combine maps from different sources using Bayesian procedures, protocols to enhance the quality of data collection, and tools to facilitate analysis. Summary graphs communicating FCM findings sacrificed detail but facilitated stakeholder discussion of the most important relationships. We used maps not as predictive models but to surface and share perspectives of how change could happen and to inform dialogue. Analysis included simple manual techniques and sophisticated computer-based solutions. A wide range of experience in initiating, drawing, analysing, and communicating the maps illustrates FCM flexibility for different contexts and skill bases. Conclusions A strong core procedure can contribute to more robust applications of the technique while adapting FCM for different research settings. Decision-making often involves choices between plausible interventions in a context of uncertainty and multiple possible answers to the same question. FCM offers systematic and traceable ways to document, contrast and sometimes to combine perspectives, incorporating stakeholder experience and causal models to inform decision-making. Different depths of FCM analysis open opportunities for applying the technique in skill-limited settings.

Local perspectives provide different insights into disaster planning and response as compared to those of experts. Eliciting them, however, can be challenging, particularly for marginalised groups whose viewpoints have historically been excluded from planning processes. Fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) provides a semi‐quantitative approach to representing the collective understanding or ‘mental models’ of diverse individuals and communities. This study involved 23 FCM interviews across three neighbourhoods of Saint Martin to comprehend: (i) how individuals' mental models of Hurricane Irma (2017) differ based on their context; (ii) how aligned mental models are with policy and planning documents; and (iii) the implications for the inclusiveness and representativeness of disaster response policies. It found that the residents of different neighbourhoods provided unique insights into the factors driving the social‐ecological system, and that official policies aligned closely with priorities. The paper argues that the inclusion of the perspectives of different groups in disaster recovery is essential for an equitable process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we extend the use of a relational approach to simulation modelling, a widely used knowledge practice in sustainability science. Among modellers, there is awareness that model results can only be interpreted in view of the assumptions that inform model construction and analysis, but less systematic questioning of those assumptions. Moreover, current methodological discussions tend to focus on integrating social and ecological dynamics or diverse knowledges and data within a model. Yet choices regarding types of modelling, model structure, data handling, interpretation of results and model validation are not purely epistemic. They are entangled with values, contexts of production and use, power relations, and pragmatic considerations. Situated Modelling extends a relational understanding of the world to scientific knowledge production and with that to modelling itself in order to enable a systematic interrogation of these choices and to research social-ecological transformations relationally. To make tangible the situatedness of simulation modelling, we build on existing practices and describe the situatedness of three distinct modelling approaches. We then suggest four guiding principles for Situated Modelling: 1. attending to the apparatus of knowledge production that is socially and materially embedded and produced by e.g. research infrastructures, power relations, and ways of thinking; 2. considering how agency is distributed between model, world, data, modeller in model construction; 3. creating heterogenous collectives which together occupy the formerly individualised subject position; and 4. using agonism as an epistemic virtue to retain and work with significant differentiations of social-ecological dynamics throughout the modelling process.

In developing countries, informal settlements are mainly located in floodplains and wetlands; hence, they are frequently affected by floods. The objective of this study is to demonstrate a methodological approach that integrates the community members' local and indigenous knowledge and GIS-based multi-criteria decision-making using the Analytic Network Process in mapping flood vulnerability in an informal settlement. The study was conducted in Quarry Road West informal settlement located in Durban, South Africa. A mixed-method approach that involved a household survey (n = 359), interviews with key informants (n = 10) and focus group discussions (n = 2) was used in this study. This study's results showed a spatial differentiation of flood vulnerability in the study area. Households along the Palmiet River were highly vulnerable to flooding. A section of the settlement called Mcondo 1 was also highly vulnerable to flooding while maMsuthu had low flood vulnerability. The sensitivity analysis results showed that changing the indicator weights, correspondingly, affected the output of the flood vulnerability map. Therefore, this study can guide decision-makers on how to elicit adequate community participation and comprehensively integrate local and indigenous knowledge with Geographical Information System in mapping flood vulnerability in informal settlements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract As we face complex and dynamically changing public health and environmental challenges, simulation modelling has come to occupy an increasingly central role in public engagements with policy. Shifts are occurring not only in terms of wider public understandings of modelling, but also in how the value of modelling is conceptualised within scientific modelling communities. We undertook a critical literature review to synthesise the underlying epistemic, theoretical and methodological assumptions about the role and value of simulation modelling within the literature across a range of fields (e.g., health, social science and environmental management) that engage with participatory modelling approaches. We identified four cross-cutting narrative conceptualisations of the value of modelling across different research traditions: (1) models simulate and help solve complex problems; (2) models as tools for community engagement; (3) models as tools for consensus building; (4) models as volatile technologies that generate social effects. Exploring how these ideas of ‘value’ overlap and what they offer one another has implications for how participatory simulation modelling approaches are designed, evaluated and communicated to diverse audiences. Deeper appreciation of the conditions under which simulation modelling can catalyse multiple social effects is recommended.

As we face complex and dynamically changing public health and environmental challenges, simulation modelling has come to occupy an increasingly central role in public engagements with policy. Shifts are occurring not only in terms of wider public understandings of modelling, but also in how the value of modelling is conceptualised within scientific modelling communities. We undertook a critical literature review to synthesise the underlying epistemic, theoretical and methodological assumptions about the role and value of simulation modelling within the literature across a range of fields (e.g., health, social science and environmental management) that engage with participatory modelling approaches. We identified four cross-cutting narrative conceptualisations of the value of modelling across different research traditions: (1) models simulate and help solve complex problems; (2) models as tools for community engagement; (3) models as tools for consensus building; (4) models as volatile technologies that generate social effects. Exploring how these ideas of 'value' overlap and what they offer one another has implications for how participatory simulation modelling approaches are designed, evaluated and communicated to diverse audiences. Deeper appreciation of the conditions under which simulation modelling can catalyse multiple social effects is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to examine the impacts of COVID-19 on coastal tourism in Nelson Mandela Bay (NMB), South Africa, and propose effective management interventions to enable swift recovery. A participatory system dynamics modelling approach was applied through a qualitative causal mapping processes to support a quantitative model. Multiple stakeholder perspectives were incorporated to gain a holistic understanding of the local impacts. The study revealed that the effects of the pandemic on tourism in NMB were dynamic and accompanied by shifts in governance responses and traveller behaviour. Uncertainty surrounding the rate of recovery in different sectors was observed. Through collaboration with local stakeholders, recovery interventions were identified and tested according to short-to-long-term tourism needs in stages of recovery, revival and growth. The findings highlight the importance of cross-sectoral collaboration in facilitating informed decision-making for sustainable tourism recovery. Moreover, it is encouraged that participatory, multi-stakeholder approaches are adopted to explore the impacts of exogenous factors on the tourism sector, such as those arising from public health, climate, and social–political change. This inclusive and dynamic approach can be used to develop management strategies that are responsive and adaptable to complex and evolving circumstances that can impact the tourism industry.

This study aimed to examine the impacts of COVID-19 on coastal tourism in Nelson Mandela Bay (NMB), South Africa, and propose effective management interventions to enable swift recovery. A participatory system dynamics modelling approach was applied through a qualitative causal mapping processes to support a quantitative model. Multiple stakeholder perspectives were incorporated to gain a holistic understanding of the local impacts. The study revealed that the effects of the pandemic on tourism in NMB were dynamic and accompanied by shifts in governance responses and traveller behaviour. Uncertainty surrounding the rate of recovery in different sectors was observed. Through collaboration with local stakeholders, recovery interventions were identified and tested according to short-to-long-term tourism needs in stages of recovery, revival and growth. The findings highlight the importance of cross-sectoral collaboration in facilitating informed decision-making for sustainable tourism recovery. Moreover, it is encouraged that participatory, multi-stakeholder approaches are adopted to explore the impacts of exogenous factors on the tourism sector, such as those arising from public health, climate, and social–political change. This inclusive and dynamic approach can be used to develop management strategies that are responsive and adaptable to complex and evolving circumstances that can impact the tourism industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does society engage public and community support for and co-create action on climate and environmental change, resilient water management and sustainable critical infrastructure? The answer to this often-asked question, as expected, is not simple yet also not complicated – just a complex layering of scales and dimensions from engineering, environmental and social sciences, science communication and intergenerational recognition that there is not a 'one-size-fits-all' approach – just as with technical infrastructures. With these perspectives in mind, this paper shares best practice on mobilising the co-creation of sustainable water-resilient communities in the south-west of England, UK. Consideration of evidence and engagement across multiple scales and dimensions is positioned through exploration and evaluation of projects undertaken through the Westcountry Rivers Trust's Water Resilient Communities programme in two counties (Devon and Somerset). The projects cover town-based sustainable drainage systems (Sudss) co-created with residents, school-based Sudss co-created with children and teachers and a Water Resilience Summit and associated hub co-created with communities and businesses. Over 400 people were directly engaged in exploring, planning and co-creating different aspects, which met the intended objectives. Learning points were uncovered and reflected on to take forward into future projects to enable further mobilisation of sustainable water-resilient communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As centres of consumption, knowledge and services under some political and administrative control, cities are acknowledged as strategic food governance transition nodes. Increasing stakeholder coordination and participation, however, means identifying pathways for transformative change and accelerating uptake of innovative and participatory modes of governance. We argue that modelling approaches, by helping to meet the three pre-conditions for participatory governance (relationship-building, shared understanding and experimentation) offer valuable input and can help establish ad hoc institutional space for redesigning food system governance. Based on a selective literature review, we define four key dimensions to consider when modelling for participatory food governance in city-regions: stakeholders' involvement, process phases, capacity for joint action and use of a multi-sectoral and multi-scale approach. The state-of-the-art review presented in this paper focuses on seven modelling approaches that can meaningfully support stakeholder participation in food system transitioning processes, considering the specific context, objectives and available resources. The strengths and limitations of combined modelling approaches are illustrated and critically reviewed, using a concrete example from the Berlin city-region. This highlights the relevant contribution that modelling can make to creating new spaces for participatory food governance. • Modelling can be used to support new spaces for redesigning food system governance. • Modelling can help build relationships and a shared view, and promote experiments. • Dimensions considered: involvement, phase, capacity and multi-scale/multi- sector. • A modelling approach is context-, objective- and resource-dependent. • Comprehensive guidelines for a system-perspective selection are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governments employ a range of policy instruments to encourage landholders to adopt land management practices that reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture. While the impact of policy instruments may be well-theorised, their implementation in diverse contexts and landholders' complex behavioural responses, makes measurement and prediction of the resulting adoption rates difficult. This constrains the ability of governments to select the optimal combination of policy instruments. We used a participatory modelling approach to incorporate expert knowledge into a Bayesian network model exploring the effect of different policy combinations on the adoption of sustainable farming practices in the Great Barrier Reef catchment, Australia. The model integrates policy instruments including regulating farming practices, offering financial incentives, and facilitating extension programs to educate and assist farmers. Results showed that the effectiveness of a policy instrument on practice adoption was expected to vary depending on which other instruments are implemented, the characteristics of the land managers, the surrounding social context, and the practice itself. This approach demonstrates the utility of Bayesian networks in integrating high-level multi-disciplinary knowledge to address complex environmental policy decisions such as water quality management in the Great Barrier Reef. ● Impact of agriculture on the Great Barrier Reef can be reduced using policy instruments. ● Interactions between instruments for practice adoption are currently poorly understood. ● Mechanisms influencing the impact of policy instruments were explored using an expert-derived Bayesian network. ● Regulations, financial incentives, extension, governance and communication were considered. ● The model facilitates scenario analysis to help to inform policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a complex interaction between pollution, climate change, the environment and people. This complex interplay of actions and impacts is particularly relevant in coastal regions, where the land meets the sea. To achieve sustainable development in coastal systems, a better understanding is necessary of the role and impact of pollution and the connectedness of the elements, namely, pollution, climate and the people, as well as associated impacts unfolding in an integrated social-ecological system (SES). In this context, the enabling capacity of tools connecting scientific efforts to societal demands is much debated. This paper establishes the basis for climate-smart socially innovative tools and approaches for marine pollution science. The goal of developing a set of innovative tools is twofold: first, to build on, integrate, and further improve the well-founded strengths in diagnosis and process understanding of systemic environmental problems; and, second, to provide decision-making with usable information to create actionable knowledge for managing the impact of marine pollution on the SES under a changing climate. The paper concludes by establishing the scope for a 'last mile' approach incorporating scientific evidence of pollution under climate change conditions into decision-making in a SES on the coast. The paper uses case studies to demonstrate the need for collaborative tools to connect the science of coastal pollution and climate with decision-making on managing human activities in a SES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a complex interaction between pollution, climate change, the environment and people. This complex interplay of actions and impacts is particularly relevant in coastal regions, where the land meets the sea. To achieve sustainable development in coastal systems, a better understanding is necessary of the role and impact of pollution and the connectedness of the elements, namely, pollution, climate and the people, as well as associated impacts unfolding in an integrated social–ecological system (SES). In this context, the enabling capacity of tools connecting scientific efforts to societal demands is much debated. This paper establishes the basis for climate-smart socially innovative tools and approaches for marine pollution science. The goal of developing a set of innovative tools is twofold: first, to build on, integrate, and further improve the well-founded strengths in diagnosis and process understanding of systemic environmental problems; and, second, to provide decision-making with usable information to create actionable knowledge for managing the impact of marine pollution on the SES under a changing climate. The paper concludes by establishing the scope for a ‘last mile’ approach incorporating scientific evidence of pollution under climate change conditions into decision-making in a SES on the coast. The paper uses case studies to demonstrate the need for collaborative tools to connect the science of coastal pollution and climate with decision-making on managing human activities in a SES.

Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) have recently gained ground in many engineering applications, mainly because they allow stakeholder engagement in reduced-form complex systems representation and modelling. They provide a pictorial form of systems, consisting of nodes (concepts) and node interconnections (weights), and perform system simulations for various input combinations. Due to their simplicity and quasi-quantitative nature, they can be easily used with and by non-experts. However, these features come with the price of ambiguity in output: recent literature indicates that changes in selected FCM parameters yield considerably different outcomes. Furthermore, it is not a priori known whether an FCM simulation would reach a fixed, unique final state (fixed point). There are cases where infinite, chaotic, or cyclic behaviour (non-convergence) hinders the inference process, and literature shows that the primary culprit lies in a parameter determining the steepness of the most common transfer functions, which determine the state vector of the system during FCM simulations. To address ambiguity in FCM outcomes, we propose a certain range for the value of this parameter, λ , which is dependent on the FCM layout, for the case of the log-sigmoid and hyperbolic tangent transfer functions. The analysis of this paper is illustrated through a novel software application, In-Cognitive, which allows non-experts to define the FCM layout via a Graphical User Interface and then perform FCM simulations given various inputs. The proposed methodology and developed software are validated against a real-world energy policy-related problem in Greece, drawn from the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regenerative agriculture (RegenAg) can help landholders attune their agricultural practices to the natural design of the earth's cycles and support systems. The adoption of RegenAg, however, hinges not only on a good understanding of biophysical processes but perhaps more importantly on deep-seated values and beliefs which can become an obstacle for triggering widespread transitions towards synergistic relationships with the land. We designed and facilitated a Participatory Modelling exercise with RegenAg stakeholders in Australia—the aim was to provide a blueprint of how challenges and opportunities could be collaboratively explored in alignment with landholders' personal views and perspectives. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) were used to unpack and formalise landholder perspectives into a semi-quantitative shared 'mental model' of the barriers and enablers for adoption of RegenAg practices and to subsequently identify actions that might close the gap between the two. Five dominant narratives which encode the key drivers and pain points in the system were identified and extracted from the FCM as a way to promote the internalisation of outcomes and lessons from the engagement. The Participatory Modelling exercise revealed some of the key drivers of RegenAg in Australia, highlighting the complex forces at work and the need for coordinated actions at the institutional, social, and individual levels, across long timescales (decades). Such actions are necessary for RegenAg to play a greater role in local and regional economies and to embed balancing relationships within systems currently reliant on conventional agriculture with few internal incentives to change. Our methods and findings are relevant not only for those seeking to promote the adoption of RegenAg in Australia but also for governments and agriculturalists seeking to take a behaviorally attuned stance to engage with landholders on issues of sustainable and resilient agriculture. More broadly, the participatory process reported here demonstrates the use of bespoke virtual elicitation methods that were designed to collaborate with stakeholders under COVID-19 lockdown restrictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Participatory modelling seeks to foster stakeholder engagement to better attune models to their decision-making and policy contexts. Such approaches are increasingly advocated for use in the field of health. We review the instrumental and epistemological claims made in support of participatory modelling approaches. These accentuate participatory models as offering a better evidence-base for health policy decisions. By drawing attention to recent modelling experiments in a sector outside of health, that of water management, we outline a different way of thinking about participation and modelling. Here, the participatory model is configured in relation to matters of 'knowledge controversy', with modelling constituted as an 'evidence-making intervention' in relation to the making of science and expertise. Rather than presenting participatory models as an improved technical solution to addressing given policy problems within an evidence-based intervention approach, models are alternatively potentiated as sites for the redistribution of expertise among actor networks as they seek to engage politically in a matter of concern. This leads us to consider possible new directions for participatory modelling in the field of health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic bought devastating impacts to multiple economic sectors, with a major downfall observed in the tourism sector owing to explicit travel bans on foreign and domestic tourism. In Nelson Mandela Bay (NMB), South Africa, tourism plays an important role; however, negative effects from the pandemic and resulting restrictions has left the sector dwindling and in need of a path to recovery. Working together with local government and stakeholders, this study applied system dynamics modelling to investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on coastal tourism in NMB to provide decision-support and inform tourism recovery strategies. Through model analysis, a suite of management interventions was tested under two 'what-if' scenarios, with reference to the business-as-usual governance response scenario. Scenario one specifically aimed to investigate a desirable tourism recovery strategy assuming governance control, whereas scenario two investigated a scenario where the effects of governance responses were impeded on by the exogenous effects from the virus. Results suggest that uncertainty remained prevalent in the trajectory of the infection rate as well as in associated trends in tourism; however, through the lifting of travel restrictions and the continual administration of vaccines, a path to recovery was shown to be evident. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resilience has become a fundamental paradigm for communities to deal with disaster planning. Formal methods are used to prioritise and decide about investments for resilience. Strategies and behaviour need to be developed that cannot be based on formal modelling only because the human element needs to be incorporated to build community resilience. Participatory modelling and gaming are methodological approaches that are based on realistic data and address human behaviour. These approaches enable stakeholders to develop, adjust, and learn from interactive models and use this experience to inform their decision-making. In our contribution, we explore which physical and digital elements from serious games can be used to design a participatory approach in community engagement and decision-making. Our ongoing research aims to bring multiple stakeholders together to understand, model, and decide on the trade-offs and tensions between social and infrastructure investments toward community resilience building. Initial observations allow us as researchers to systematically document the benefits and pitfalls of a game-based approach. We will continue to develop a participatory modelling exercise for resilience planning with university graduate students and resilience experts within academia in Christchurch, New Zealand.

[Display omitted] • Uncertainty in complex human-water systems is represented by storyline discovery. • A transdisciplinary framework is presented for uncertainty quantification using storylines. • Findings highlight the significance of narratives in communicating uncertainty. • The soil salinity and crop yield were the most uncertain across all local storylines. • 95th percentile of soil salinity is estimated to be nearly 60% higher by the year 2100. Storylines are important in evaluating the uncertainty inherent in complex human-water systems. The interrelated nature of qualitative and quantitative scenarios can enhance our ability to address the uncertainty of integrated modelling of complex systems. This study proposes a transdisciplinary approach that integrates social and environmental sciences to characterize and comprehend uncertainty in the dynamic interactions of key factors affecting a human-water system. We introduce a framework for representing uncertainty through linguistic and epistemic uncertainty quantification using storyline narratives in the context of a regional integrated dynamic model. A systematic exploration of uncertainty space is performed using storytelling, fuzzy sets, and low discrepancy sequences sampling methods. Scenario analysis is applied to the generated uncertain ensemble of projections to discover predominant storylines of interest. As a representative case of a human-water system operating in a developing country, we examine the uncertainty effects of a variety of drivers of climatic and socio-economic changes on key agriculture and water-related sectors in Pakistan's Rechna Doab region. The findings revealed soil salinity and crop yield indices were the most uncertain and showed significant variance across all developed storylines. The 95th percentile for soil salinity in year 2100 was estimated to be nearly 60 % higher than the baseline level (year 2020). There was, however, considerable overlap in different socio-economic scenarios at the local scale, indicating that change in socio-economic conditions could not fully offset climate-related uncertainty. Our analysis provides better quantification and a deeper understanding of the uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling of coupled human-water systems and the complex relationships between inputs and outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainability science strives to hone our ability to tackle problems that involve interconnected economic, social, and environmental systems. Addressing the root causes of these problems requires a more nuanced understanding of how human behaviour can undermine stakeholder engagement efforts towards effective conflict management and resolution. Participatory modelling—the co-production of knowledge via facilitated modelling workshops—plays a critical role in this endeavour by enabling participants to co-formulate problems and use modelling practices that aid in the description, solution, and decision-making actions of the group. While the difficulties of modelling with stakeholders are widely acknowledged, there is still a need to more concretely identify and categorize the barriers and opportunities that human behaviour presents to this type of engagement process. This review fills an important gap in participatory modelling practice by presenting five broad categories of barriers, along with strategies that can assist in overcoming them. We conclude with a series of actions and future research directions that the participatory modelling community as a whole can take to create more meaningful and behaviourally-attuned engagements that help stakeholders take concrete steps towards sustainability in natural resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Responsibility for flood risk management (FRM) is increasingly being devolved to a wider set of stakeholders, and effective participation by multiple FRM agencies and communities at risk calls for engagement approaches that supplement and make the best possible use of hydrologic and hydraulic flood modelling. Stakeholder engagement must strike a considered balance between participation ideals and the pragmatic realities of existing mechanisms for FRM decision‐making. This article evaluates the potential for using participatory modelling to facilitate engagement and co‐production of knowledge by FRM modellers, practitioners and other stakeholders. Participatory modelling offers an approach that is flexible and versatile, yet sufficiently structured that it can support meaningful representation of scientific, empirical and local knowledges in producing outcomes that can readily be integrated into existing procedures for shared decision‐making. This article frames the qualities of participatory modelling useful to FRM, as being accessible, transparent, adaptable, evaluative and holistic. These qualities are used as criteria with which to assess the practical utility of three popular participatory techniques: Bayesian networks, system dynamics and fuzzy cognitive mapping. Case studies are used to illustrate how each technique might benefit FRM options appraisal and decision‐making. While each technique has potential, none is ideal, and local contexts will guide selection of which technique is best suited to deliver effective stakeholder participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social marketing is currently involved in pursuing several important theoretical and methodological goals pertaining to wide-scale behavior change. The lack of complex system understanding via highly participatory processes and feedback loops is a major impediment for systemic behavior change. The purpose of this paper is to show how the implementation of participatory modelling to explore networks of feedback loops can empower social marketing in capturing system complexity. As a case study, a group of system stakeholders qualitatively modelled a cycling system in a city setting to uncover the system's core behavioral dynamics. This participatory modelling process revealed that the interactions within and between three feedback loops were mainly responsible for the cycling system issues. These feedback loops were: (a) output-based and autocratic decision-making, (b) an abundance of conflicted interests and (c) the reinforcement of a car-dominant paradigm in people's minds. The paper contributes to understanding the potential of participatory modelling for multi-level behavior change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decarbonizing energy systems through the integration of decentralized renewable energy generators creates opportunities for community-scale actors to participate in energy system decision-making. However, typical modelling approaches exclude community stakeholders, causing a loss of local knowledge. This exclusion is problematic for Indigenous peoples in so-called Canada where the natural resource industry harms their land and communities. The Exploring Grassroots Renewable Energy Transitions (EGRET) platform introduced in this work presents an alternative to typical energy system modelling because it facilitates community participation throughout the model development and application process. This platform was developed in partnership with a local First Nation's energy specialist to assess whether solar panels could increase community energy sovereignty. The platform's user interface, visualization suite, and high-speed machine learning models make energy system modelling accessible to community members through interactive workshops. In the future, the EGRET approach could be generalized for stakeholder-led renewable energy exploration in other community settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Responsibility for flood risk management (FRM) is increasingly being devolved to a wider set of stakeholders, and effective participation by multiple FRM agencies and communities at risk calls for engagement approaches that supplement and make the best possible use of hydrologic and hydraulic flood modelling. Stakeholder engagement must strike a considered balance between participation ideals and the pragmatic realities of existing mechanisms for FRM decision‐making. This article evaluates the potential for using participatory modelling to facilitate engagement and co‐production of knowledge by FRM modellers, practitioners and other stakeholders. Participatory modelling offers an approach that is flexible and versatile, yet sufficiently structured that it can support meaningful representation of scientific, empirical and local knowledges in producing outcomes that can readily be integrated into existing procedures for shared decision‐making. This article frames the qualities of participatory modelling useful to FRM, as being accessible, transparent, adaptable, evaluative and holistic. These qualities are used as criteria with which to assess the practical utility of three popular participatory techniques: Bayesian networks, system dynamics and fuzzy cognitive mapping. Case studies are used to illustrate how each technique might benefit FRM options appraisal and decision‐making. While each technique has potential, none is ideal, and local contexts will guide selection of which technique is best suited to deliver effective stakeholder participation.

Participatory integrated assessment (PIA) emerged as a response to conventional integrated assessment methods in the mid-to-late 1990s. PIA is based on the tenet that more inclusive stakeholder involvement may lead to increased accountability and legitimacy in decision-making, greater levels of trust and social learning between participants, and improved quality and relevancy of knowledge outputs. In this paper, we conduct a systematic literature review to update and deepen our understanding of the approaches, methods, opportunities, and challenges associated with PIA as applied at the catchment scale. Of the total 278 studies identified in our literature search, only 37 catchment-level cases presented a clear PIA application. From our review, lessons learnt were drawn in relation to the integration of less-easily quantified areas of social science, entry and exit planning in PIA, boundary work on issue cycles and accounting for the human dimension. We conclude that PIA is a potentially useful approach for navigating the dual social-ecological dimensions of current environmental and resource management issues, especially when projects include tailored objectives and methods, user-friendly outputs, and early and consistent stakeholder involvement. However, we also highlight gaps in the field concerning the integrative reach of PIA, PIA's real-world impact, and the relationship between PIA processes and outcomes along stages of environmental issue cycles. We conclude that further work is therefore still needed to help advance the field of PIA in both research and boundary work practice.

Aims: Climate change is expected to markedly change site factors, tree species composition and finally ecosystem services provided by forests. Here, we describe the development of a framework for modelling how these changes may transform forest site types. Site types capture information on site conditions like climate, topography and soil, all factors with strong influence on tree species occurrence. Location: Switzerland. Methods: We elicited expert knowledge and followed a participatory modelling approach for quantifying upward shifts of altitudinal vegetation belts and the changes in the zonal distribution of main tree species, as a basis for assessing transformation pathways of forest site types for three climate projections. Results: The model results show marked range shifts of altitudinal vegetation belts. The change in the vegetation belt and a rule base for forest site type transformations allow for assessing the location‐specific and long‐term transformation pathway from the current to a future forest site type. Conclusions: The resulting maps enable forest managers to take climate change into account when selecting tree species. The presented method complements statistical distribution models as it considers more site information, integrates expert knowledge and is based on a forest site type classification which is already widely used by forest practitioners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regenerative agriculture (RegenAg) can help landholders attune their agricultural practices to the natural design of the earth’s cycles and support systems. The adoption of RegenAg, however, hinges not only on a good understanding of biophysical processes but perhaps more importantly on deep-seated values and beliefs which can become an obstacle for triggering widespread transitions towards synergistic relationships with the land. We designed and facilitated a Participatory Modelling exercise with RegenAg stakeholders in Australia—the aim was to provide a blueprint of how challenges and opportunities could be collaboratively explored in alignment with landholders’ personal views and perspectives. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) were used to unpack and formalise landholder perspectives into a semi-quantitative shared ‘mental model’ of the barriers and enablers for adoption of RegenAg practices and to subsequently identify actions that might close the gap between the two. Five dominant narratives which encode the key drivers and pain points in the system were identified and extracted from the FCM as a way to promote the internalisation of outcomes and lessons from the engagement. The Participatory Modelling exercise revealed some of the key drivers of RegenAg in Australia, highlighting the complex forces at work and the need for coordinated actions at the institutional, social, and individual levels, across long timescales (decades). Such actions are necessary for RegenAg to play a greater role in local and regional economies and to embed balancing relationships within systems currently reliant on conventional agriculture with few internal incentives to change. Our methods and findings are relevant not only for those seeking to promote the adoption of RegenAg in Australia but also for governments and agriculturalists seeking to take a behaviorally attuned stance to engage with landholders on issues of sustainable and resilient agriculture. More broadly, the participatory process reported here demonstrates the use of bespoke virtual elicitation methods that were designed to collaborate with stakeholders under COVID-19 lockdown restrictions.

Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic bought devastating impacts to multiple economic sectors, with a major downfall observed in the tourism sector owing to explicit travel bans on foreign and domestic tourism. In Nelson Mandela Bay (NMB), South Africa, tourism plays an important role; however, negative effects from the pandemic and resulting restrictions has left the sector dwindling and in need of a path to recovery. Working together with local government and stakeholders, this study applied system dynamics modelling to investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on coastal tourism in NMB to provide decision-support and inform tourism recovery strategies. Through model analysis, a suite of management interventions was tested under two ‘what-if’ scenarios, with reference to the business-as-usual governance response scenario. Scenario one specifically aimed to investigate a desirable tourism recovery strategy assuming governance control, whereas scenario two investigated a scenario where the effects of governance responses were impeded on by the exogenous effects from the virus. Results suggest that uncertainty remained prevalent in the trajectory of the infection rate as well as in associated trends in tourism; however, through the lifting of travel restrictions and the continual administration of vaccines, a path to recovery was shown to be evident.

Strategies for agricultural climate change adaptation are needed to ensure that sub-Saharan Africa can continue to feed itself, given its rapidly growing population and the expected impacts of climate change on food production. The poultry sector is an important component of the African food system, but national climate change adaptation plans in many countries fail to take into account the specific contextual challenges faced by poultry producers. We developed a participatory system dynamics modelling tool to involve stakeholders from the poultry sector in Nigeria in analyzing how climate impacts would affect the sector, with the goal of generating insights for state (sub-national) and national scale policy makers. A second goal of the exercise was to facilitate social learning and knowledge sharing on adaptation strategies among the stakeholders. Given the high uncertainty of the conditions surrounding the Nigerian poultry sector, the model's use is primarily as a discussion tool for poultry sector stakeholders, including policy makers, to share concerns and develop adaptation strategies. It served this purpose, as evidenced by the creation of a manual for poultry producers from the exercise. Similar stakeholder engagement efforts can stimulate knowledge sharing around climate change adaptation for problems around which limited data and high uncertainty exist. Key policy insights Participatory system dynamics modelling is shown to be a useful tool for integrating national and community-level priorities for policy and management under climate change in the Nigerian poultry sector. Effective climate change adaptation will require building resilience to large-scale external drivers such as global trade dynamics, which are highly influential in the system. In order to effectively move from planning to implementation, climate change adaptation processes must facilitate social learning and knowledge sharing around the long-term consequences of policy and management choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finding leverage points for sustainability transformation of industrial and infrastructure systems is challenging, given that transformation is emergent from the complex interactions among socio-technical system elements over time within a specific social, technical and geographical context. Participatory multi-modelling, in which modellers and stakeholders collaborate to develop multiple interacting models to support a shared understanding of systems, is a promising approach to support sustainability transformations. The participatory process of modeling can serve as a leverage point by facilitating social learning amongst stakeholders, in which models can function as boundary objects that facilitate dialogue between stakeholders from different social worlds. We propose that participatory multi-modeling allows for the creation of a boundary object ecology, which involves a set of interacting and co-evolving boundary objects emerging throughout the modeling process. To explore this, we analyse the participatory multi-modelling process in the Windmaster project in the Rotterdam Port industrial cluster to understand which design choices were key to the creation of boundary objects. Our analysis shows that two types of design choices were key: design choices that enabled translations between participants, and those between participants and their organisation. We conclude that conceptualising participatory multi-modelling as a process of an evolving boundary object ecology, creating and adapting multiple interacting boundary objects provides a novel perspective that is useful for analysis and design of future participatory multi-modeling processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complex relationship that exists between water resources and agricultural production has been increasing constantly globally. Several factors are interacting to influence the management of water resources making the system complex and dynamic. To increase the understanding of these complex and dynamic systems, relevant tools are needed to identify the causal relationships that exist between the drivers and their influences on the system. Participatory modelling based on the system dynamics approach provides a simplistic and visualisation tool that can improve the understanding of the functioning of a complex and dynamic system. A multi-stage participatory approach was used in this study involving relevant stakeholders in the development of an integrated conceptual system dynamic model using causal loop diagrams. This approach was used because it captures the thought process and mental model of relevant stakeholders in the development of the model, making it a valuable tool for policy and decision making at government and individual levels. The integrated model built in this study used causal loop diagrams to address problems of water management and agricultural sustainability in the Breede River Catchment. The model shows major causal-relationships and feedback loops that determine the functioning of the overall system. The model demonstrates the usefulness of the participatory approach in solving problems related to water management and agricultural development in the catchment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision-makers are increasingly asked to act differently in how they respond to complex urban challenges, recognising the value in bringing together and integrating cross-disciplinary, cross-sectoral knowledge to generate effective solutions. Participatory modelling allows to bring stakeholders together, enhance knowledge and understanding of a system, and identify the impacts of interventions to a given problem. This paper uses an interdisciplinary and systems approach to investigate a complex urban problem, using a participatory System Dynamics modelling process as an approach to facilitate learning and co-produce knowledge on the factors influencing the use of urban natural space. Stakeholders used a Systems Dynamics model and interface, as a tool to collectively identify pathways for improving the use of space and simulating their impacts. Under the lens of knowledge co-production, the paper reflects how such mechanisms can lead to the co-production of knowledge and social learning. The findings also contribute to identify ways of increasing the value of urban natural space focusing on urban areas undergoing physical and social transformation, such as the Thamesmead case study, London, UK. • Participatory System Dynamics modelling to co-produce knowledge with stakeholders. • Using a holistic approach to describe the dynamics of the use of urban natural space. • The model simulates different impacts on the use of space to inform decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of increasing flood risks and the need for effective management both at national and local levels, this study highlights a participatory approach that transcends conventional stakeholder consultation but delves into drawing insights through conceptual models that unveil the potential of the Participatory System Dynamic Modelling approach to mitigate flood risks, even at the grassroots level effectively. Through active stakeholder engagement, the study focuses on identifying and analysing the intricate interdependencies and feedback loops within the Limbe flood risk management system that are crucial for recommending comprehensive and actionable flood risk mitigation strategies for Limbe's cross-sectoral dynamics. By including flood experts and community stakeholders in the conceptual model construction, the study utilises an evaluative framework that accounts for system processes and outcomes, ensuring a holistic understanding of the flood risk system, considering scientific knowledge and real-life experiences. The findings underscore the value of participatory modelling techniques in facilitating the identification and prioritisation of intervention options by diverse stakeholders, thereby promoting active engagement in local flood risk management, a vital step in addressing the escalating challenges posed by climate change and natural disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem services (ES) depend on coupled ecological and socioeconomic processes. We propose participatory modelling as a tool for sharing and co-creating knowledge about processes supporting (or eroding) local ES. The proposal consists of an open library of introductory ES dynamic models to be tailored for each case study. Such a library is illustrated by two ES examples and five models, published in an open-access web-platform. The results can contribute to the improvement of both analysis and deliberation, helping managers to design better policies and stakeholders to better formulate expectations.

Abstract Background Systems science methods such as dynamic simulation modelling are well suited to address questions about public health policy as they consider the complexity, context and dynamic nature of system-wide behaviours. Advances in technology have led to increased accessibility and interest in systems methods to address complex health policy issues. However, the involvement of policy decision makers in health-related simulation model development has been lacking. Where end-users have been included, there has been limited examination of their experience of the participatory modelling process and their views about the utility of the findings. This paper reports the experience of end-user decision makers, including senior public health policy makers and health service providers, who participated in three participatory simulation modelling for health policy case studies (alcohol related harm, childhood obesity prevention, diabetes in pregnancy), and their perceptions of the value and efficacy of this method in an applied health sector context. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with end-user participants from three participatory simulation modelling case studies in Australian real-world policy settings. Interviewees were employees of government agencies with jurisdiction over policy and program decisions and were purposively selected to include perspectives at different stages of model development. Results The ‘co-production’ aspect of the participatory approach was highly valued. It was reported as an essential component of building understanding of the modelling process, and thus trust in the model and its outputs as a decision-support tool. The unique benefits of simulation modelling included its capacity to explore interactions of risk factors and combined interventions, and the impact of scaling up interventions. Participants also valued simulating new interventions prior to implementation in the real world, and the comprehensive mapping of evidence and its gaps to prioritise future research. The participatory aspect of simulation modelling was time and resource intensive and therefore most suited to high priority complex topics with contested options for intervening. Conclusion These findings highlight the value of a participatory approach to dynamic simulation modelling to support its utility in applied health policy settings.

Participatory modelling (PM) processes involve stakeholders in developing a simplified representation of reality based on stakeholders' knowledge, perceptions, values and assumptions about a system in which they live and/or work. There has been an increase in the need for structured methods for the implementation of PM processes, to elicit knowledge from stakeholders and to represent this knowledge in a model. This paper presents a method to support the participatory component of modelling processes without the need for face-to-face interactions. The method, which we term Episodic and Asynchronous (EAsy) was applied to construct a Fuzzy Cognitive Map of the Nigerian rice agri-food system. The stakeholder determined Fuzzy Cognitive Map was further applied to develop scenarios and identify leverage points for intervention in the system. The results demonstrate that the EAsy approach is an effective way for co-production to be achieved. The EAsy approach can thus be considered valid to construct a representation of a complex social-ecological system. Using the results and analysis of our process, we discuss the limitations and benefits of this PM method.

The need for innovative systemic approaches for managing water resources that integrate natural and human dimensions is well established. Although systemic, participatory modelling has been shown to support stakeholder involvement and integrated analysis, the uptake within acrimonious, data-scarce contexts – especially in the developing world – is limited. This study details a process designed to address challenges facing the lower Olifants River Catchment in South Africa, including deteriorating water quality, data paucity and stakeholder conflict. Narratives and quantitative data were used to build a system dynamics (SD) model, ResiMod, within a participatory process. The paper demonstrates how narratives can inform, and be informed by, iterative model development whilst integrating scientific data. The approach facilitated an exploration of perceptions of causality, connections between stakeholder sectors, and mitigatory actions for responding to climate-change impacts on biodiversity. This offers a promising approach to support improved communication and learning in disputed, data-scarce contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on fishers' perceptions of interactions between their practices and their environment. The study was performed in the upper section of the Maroni River in French Guiana, a relatively remote region in the tropical rainforest where subsistence fishing still occurs. We assessed the fishers' perceptions of their relationship with the river by asking them about the state of natural resources, their fishing practices, nearby activities, and their way of life. Cognitive mapping was used to capture their individual viewpoints, especially those that formed a consensus with the other fishers. Regardless of their ethnic group (Aluku vs. Amerindian) or way of life (subsistence vs. commercial fishing), most fishers generally shared the same views. The main per-ception was that fishing is threatened by illegal gold mining, increasing use of fishing nets, and a loss of knowledge of fish behaviour by younger generations of villagers. Furthermore, fishers perceived an ongoing shift in their role and relationship with the fish resource, which is becoming increasingly commercially oriented, and since the river is no longer the only source of food. Detailed analysis of arguments put forward to explain these threats shows that this process originates from ill-managed Westernization, which has caused painful changes in lifestyles of local populations, especially Amerindians. This analysis can also provide local governments with mechanisms for action. Our results raise questions about the future of this region and suggest ways to protect its natural resources better. They can help decision makers respond to poorly understood informal fisheries and motivate local residents to contribute to sustainable management of a river's natural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]