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Introduction. Shifting care from hospitals into community‐based settings is a major policy goal internationally. Community health services in England currently face the greatest workforce shortages of all sectors, threatening the feasibility of this policy. Moreover, little is known about the extent of variation in community workforce provision regionally and how this relates to determinants of need. Aim. To analyse regional variation in the community services workforce in England between 2010 and 2021. Methods. We obtained NHS workforce statistics data on the number of nurses and nursing support staff providing community services at each NHS organisation in England, from March 2010 to November 2021. We aggregated the organisation‐level data to both regional and national levels, which enabled us to maintain consistent units of analysis across the decade. To examine longitudinal trends and regional variation in workforce provision, we calculated the number of staff per 100,000 population aged 65+ in each region and each period. We then graphed and summarised the variation and examined the correlations with levels of deprivation and rurality. Results. There was a twofold variation in community services workforce provision between English regions. In November 2021, the number of staff per 100,000 people aged over 64 ranged from 300 in the South West to 697 in the North West. Most regions experienced a reduction in provision between 2010 and 2021, with a 21.2% reduction nationally. East of England experienced the largest reduction of 39.3%, whilst London experienced a 2.1% increase. In November 2021, regions with more deprived populations had higher workforce provision and regions with a larger proportion of residents living in rural areas had lower workforce provision. Conclusions. The size of the community services workforce has fallen relative to population needs, contradictory to the policy priority to enhance care in the community. There was substantial regional va

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS-29) is gaining popularity as healthcare system funders increasingly seek value-based care. However, it is limited in its ability to estimate utilities and thus inform economic evaluations. This study develops the first mapping algorithm for estimating EuroQol 5-Dimension 5-Level (EQ-5D-5L) utilities from PROMIS-29 responses using a large dataset and through extensive comparisons between econometric models. METHODS: An online survey was conducted to collect responses to PROMIS-29 and EQ-5D-5L from the general Australian population (N = 3013). Direct and indirect mapping methods were explored, including linear regression, Tobit, generalised linear model, censored regression model, beta regression (Betamix), the adjusted limited dependent variable mixture model (ALDVMM) and generalised ordered logit. The most robust model was selected by assessing the performance based on average ten-fold cross-validation geometric mean absolute error and geometric mean squared error, the predicted mean, maximum and minimum utilities, as well as the fitting across the entire distribution. RESULTS: The direct approach using ALDVMM was considered the preferred model based on lowest geometric mean absolute error and geometric mean squared error in cross-validation (0.0882, 0.0299) and its superiority in predicting the actual observed mean, full health states and lower utility extremes. The robustness and precision in prediction across the entire distribution of utilities with ALDVMM suggest it is an accurate and valid mapping algorithm. Moreover, the suggested mapping algorithm outperformed previously published algorithms using Australian data, indicating the validity of this model for economic evaluations. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed a robust algorithm to estimate EQ-5D-5L utilities from PROMIS-29. Consistent with the recent literature, the ALDVMM outperformed all other econometric models

INTRODUCTION: Meta-analytical evidence confirms a range of interventions, including mindfulness, physical activity and sleep hygiene, can reduce psychological distress in university students. However, it is unclear which intervention is most effective. Artificial intelligence (AI)-driven adaptive trials may be an efficient method to determine what works best and for whom. The primary purpose of the study is to rank the effectiveness of mindfulness, physical activity, sleep hygiene and an active control on reducing distress, using a multiarm contextual bandit-based AI-adaptive trial method. Furthermore, the study will explore which interventions have the largest effect for students with different levels of baseline distress severity. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Vibe Up study is a pragmatically oriented, decentralised AI-adaptive group sequential randomised controlled trial comparing the effectiveness of one of three brief, 2-week digital self-guided interventions (mindfulness, physical activity or sleep hygiene) or active control (ecological momentary assessment) in reducing self-reported psychological distress in Australian university students. The adaptive trial methodology involves up to 12 sequential mini-trials that allow for the optimisation of allocation ratios. The primary outcome is change in psychological distress (Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale, 21-item version, DASS-21 total score) from preintervention to postintervention. Secondary outcomes include change in physical activity, sleep quality and mindfulness from preintervention to postintervention. Planned contrasts will compare the four groups (ie, the three intervention and control) using self-reported psychological distress at prespecified time points for interim analyses. The study aims to determine the best performing intervention, as well as ranking of other interventions. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was sought and obtained from the UNSW Sydney Human Research Ethics Committee (HRE

Prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) is a highly expressed protein in prostate cancer (PCa) and has become an increasingly popular target for molecular imaging in recent years. PSMA based positron-emission-tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) is a well characterised hybrid imaging modality that combines the high sensitivity of PET with the high spatial resolution of CT imaging. The combination of these two imaging modalities provides an accurate tool for detecting and managing PCa. Several diagnostic accuracy and clinical management studies investigating the role of PSMA PET/CT in PCa have been published recently. This study aimed to perform an updated systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the diagnostic performance of PSMA PET/CT in localised, lymph node metastatic (LNM) and recurrent PCa patients and assess its impact on the clinical management of primary and recurrent PCa. Using Medline, Embase, PubMed and Cochrane Library databases, studies reporting the diagnostic accuracy and clinical management of PSMA PET/CT were analysed based on the PRISMA guidelines. Statistical analyses were conducted using random-effects models, and meta-regression explored observed heterogeneity. Results indicate that the sensitivity and specificity of PSMA PET/CT for localised PCa were 71.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 58.0, 81.0) and 92.0% (95% CI: 86.0, 96.0), respectively (N = 10; n = 404 patients). Sensitivity and specificity in LNM were 57.0% (95% CI: 49.0, 64.0) and 96.0% (95% CI: 95.0, 97.0) (N = 36; n = 3,659 patients). For patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR), sensitivity was 84.0% (95% CI: 74.0, 90.0), and specificity was 97.0% (95% CI: 88.0, 99.0) (N = 9; n = 818 patients). The pooled proportion of management changes in primary (N = 16; n = 1,099 patients) and recurrent (N = 40; n = 5,398 patients) PCa was 28.0% (95% CI: 23.0, 34.0) and 54.0% (95% CI: 50.0, 58.0), respectively. In conclusion, PSMA PET/CT shows moderate sensitivity and high specifi

Background: To inform effective genomic medicine strategies, it is important to examine current approaches and gaps in well-established applications. Lynch syndrome (LS) causes 3-5% of colorectal cancers (CRCs). While guidelines commonly recommend LS tumour testing of all CRC patients, implementation in health systems is known to be highly variable. To provide insights on the heterogeneity in practice and current bottlenecks in a high-income country with universal healthcare, we characterise the approaches and gaps in LS testing and referral in seven Australian hospitals across three states. Method(s): We obtained surgery, pathology, and genetics services data for 1,624 patients who underwent CRC resections from 01/01/2017 to 31/12/2018 in the included hospitals. Result(s): Tumour testing approaches differed between hospitals, with 0-19% of patients missing mismatch repair deficiency test results (total 211/1,624 patients). Tumour tests to exclude somatic MLH1 loss were incomplete at five hospitals (42/187 patients). Of 74 patients with tumour tests completed appropriately and indicating high risk of LS, 36 (49%) were missing a record of referral to genetics services for diagnostic testing, with higher missingness for older patients (0% of patients aged <= 40 years, 76% of patients aged > 70 years). Of 38 patients with high-risk tumour test results and genetics services referral, diagnostic testing was carried out for 25 (89%) and identified a LS pathogenic/likely pathogenic variant for 11 patients (44% of 25; 0.7% of 1,624 patients). Conclusion(s): Given the LS testing and referral gaps, further work is needed to identify strategies for successful integration of LS testing into clinical care, and provide a model for hereditary cancers and broader genomic medicine. Standardised reporting may help clinicians interpret tumour test results and initiate further actions.Copyright © 2022, The Author(s).

BACKGROUND: To inform effective genomic medicine strategies, it is important to examine current approaches and gaps in well-established applications. Lynch syndrome (LS) causes 3-5% of colorectal cancers (CRCs). While guidelines commonly recommend LS tumour testing of all CRC patients, implementation in health systems is known to be highly variable. To provide insights on the heterogeneity in practice and current bottlenecks in a high-income country with universal healthcare, we characterise the approaches and gaps in LS testing and referral in seven Australian hospitals across three states. METHODS: We obtained surgery, pathology, and genetics services data for 1,624 patients who underwent CRC resections from 01/01/2017 to 31/12/2018 in the included hospitals. RESULTS: Tumour testing approaches differed between hospitals, with 0-19% of patients missing mismatch repair deficiency test results (total 211/1,624 patients). Tumour tests to exclude somatic MLH1 loss were incomplete at five hospitals (42/187 patients). Of 74 patients with tumour tests completed appropriately and indicating high risk of LS, 36 (49%) were missing a record of referral to genetics services for diagnostic testing, with higher missingness for older patients (0% of patients aged ≤ 40 years, 76% of patients aged > 70 years). Of 38 patients with high-risk tumour test results and genetics services referral, diagnostic testing was carried out for 25 (89%) and identified a LS pathogenic/likely pathogenic variant for 11 patients (44% of 25; 0.7% of 1,624 patients). CONCLUSIONS: Given the LS testing and referral gaps, further work is needed to identify strategies for successful integration of LS testing into clinical care, and provide a model for hereditary cancers and broader genomic medicine. Standardised reporting may help clinicians interpret tumour test results and initiate further actions.

OBJECTIVE: Admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) are often used to measure potentially preventable emergency care. Visits to emergency departments with ACSCs may also be preventable care but are excluded from such measures if patients are not admitted. We established the extent and composition of this preventable emergency care. METHODS: We analysed 1,505,979 emergency department visits (5% of the national total) between 1 April 2015 and 31 March 2017 at six hospital Trusts in England, using International Classification of Diseases diagnostic coding. We calculated the number of visits for each ACSC and examined the proportions of these visits that did not result in admission by condition and patient characteristics. RESULTS: 11.1% of emergency department visits were for ACSCs. 55.0% of these visits did not result in hospital admission. Whilst the majority of ACSC visits were for acute rather than chronic conditions (59.4% versus 38.4%), acute visits were much more likely to conclude without admission (70.3% versus 33.4%). Younger, more deprived and ethnic minority patients were less likely to be admitted when they visited the emergency department with an ACSC. CONCLUSIONS: Over half of preventable emergency care is not captured by measures of admissions. The probability of admission at a preventable visit varies substantially between conditions and patient groups. Focussing only on admissions for ACSCs provides an incomplete and skewed picture of the types of conditions and patients receiving preventable care. Measures of preventable emergency care should include visits in addition to admissions.

BACKGROUND: The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (DPP) is the first nationwide type 2 diabetes prevention programme targeting people with prediabetes. It was rolled out across England from 2016 in three waves. We evaluate the population level impact of the NHS DPP on incidence rates of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We use data from the National Diabetes Audit, which records all individuals across England who have been diagnosed with type 2 diabetes by 2019. We use difference-in-differences regression models to estimate the impact of the phased introduction of the DPP on type 2 diabetes incidence. We compare patients registered with the 3,282 general practices enrolled from 2016 (wave 1) and the 1,610 practices enrolled from 2017 (wave 2) to those registered with the 1,584 practices enrolled from 2018 (final wave). FINDINGS: Incidence rates of type 2 diabetes in wave 1 practices in 2018 and 2019 were significantly lower than would have been expected in the absence of the DPP (difference-in-differences Incident Rate Ratio (IRR) = 0·938 (95% CI 0·905 to 0·972)). Incidence rates were also significantly lower than expected for wave 2 practices in 2019 (difference-in-differences IRR = 0·927 (95% CI 0·885 to 0·972)). These results remained consistent across several robustness checks. INTERPRETATION: Introduction of the NHS DPP reduced population incidence of type 2 diabetes. Longer follow-up is required to explore whether these effects are maintained or if diabetes onset is delayed. FUNDING: This research was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (Health Services and Delivery Research, 16/48/07 - Evaluating the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP): the DIPLOMA research programme (Diabetes Prevention - Long Term Multimethod Assessment)). The views and opinions expressed in this manuscript are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the NHS, the National Institute for Health and Care Research or the Department of Health and So

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography (PET) combined with computed tomography (CT) is a new imaging modality to detect the extra-prostatic spread of prostate cancer. PSMA PET/CT has a higher sensitivity and specificity than conventional imaging (CT ± whole body bone scan [WBBS]). This study conducted a cost-utility analysis of PSMA PET/CT compared with conventional imaging for patients with newly diagnosed, intermediate-risk or high-risk primary prostate cancer. PERSPECTIVE: Australian healthcare perspective. SETTING: Tertiary. METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model combined data from a variety of sources. The time horizon was 35 years. The sensitivity and specificity of PSMA PET/CT and CT alone were based on meta-analyses and the test accuracy of CT+WBBS was based on a single randomised controlled trial. Health outcomes included cases detected, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years. Costs related to other diagnostic tests, initial treatment, adverse events, and post-disease progression were included. All costs were reported in 2021 Australian Dollars (A$). RESULTS: The deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of PSMA PET/CT was estimated to be A $21,147/quality-adjusted life-year gained versus CT+WBBS, and A$36,231/quality-adjusted life-year gained versus CT alone. The results were most sensitive to the time horizon, and the initial treatments received by patients diagnosed with metastatic cancer. The probability of PSMA PET/CT being cost effective was estimated to be 91% versus CT+WBBS and 89% versus CT alone, using a threshold of AU$50,000/quality-adjusted life-year gained. CONCLUSIONS: PSMA PET/CT is likely to be more costly than CT+WBBS or CT alone in Australia; however, it is still likely to be considered cost effective compared with conventional imaging.

Initially patients require a prescription to access most new medicines. Some medicines may later be reclassified, allowing patients to access them without a prescription. Currently, Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration guidelines regarding reclassification decisions focus on patient risk rather than on potential benefits to patient health and the healthcare system. We conducted two extensive case studies demonstrating an economic evaluation approach to medicine reclassification in Australia, which were presented at various conferences and to key stakeholders. This article discusses the advantages and challenges of using an economic evaluation approach to inform medicine reclassification decisions. Advantages identified include systematically and transparently synthesising evidence from multiple sources; predicting the overall expected impact of reclassification on health outcomes and costs before it occurs; considering a broader range of risks and benefits; aggregation of health impacts into a single measure (quality-adjusted life years); identification of drivers of uncertainty; insight into the effects of different regulatory decisions; and improved consistency of evidence. Challenges include data availability and quality, estimating behavioural changes, model complexity, the lack of an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio threshold, and funding of economic analyses. We recommend that regulatory decision makers use an economic evaluation approach to help inform reclassification decisions, although economic evaluation results should be considered as part of the broader body of evidence. Ultimately, the use of an economic evaluation approach will contribute to helping decision makers maximise population health outcomes in an efficient way.What is known about the topic?In the past, decisions regarding medicine reclassification have generally been made using a deliberative approach focusing on patient risk. However, there are also potential benefits to patient

OBJECTIVES: Hearing loss is one of the most prevalent congenital disorders among children. Many countries have implemented universal newborn hearing screening (UNHS) for the early diagnosis and treatment of hearing loss. Despite widespread implementation, the value for money of UNHS is unclear due to lack of cost and outcomes data from rigorous study designs. The objective of this research is to conduct a within-study cost-effectiveness analysis of UNHS compared with targeted screening (targeting children with risk factors of hearing loss) from the Australian healthcare system perspective. This evaluation is the first economic evaluation to assess the cost-effectiveness of UNHS compared to targeted screening using real-world data from a natural experiment. DESIGN: The evaluation assumed the Australian healthcare system perspective and considered a time horizon of 5 years. Utilities were estimated using responses to the Health Utilities Index Mark III. Screening costs were estimated based on the Victorian Infant Hearing Screening Program. Ongoing costs were estimated based on administrative data, while external data sources were used to estimate costs related to hearing services. Missing data were handled using the multiple imputation method. Outcome measures included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and four language and communication-related outcomes: Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, Wechsler Nonverbal Scale of Ability, Progressive Achievement Test, and comprehensive, expressive, and total language scores based on the Preschool Language Scale. RESULTS: On average, the UNHS cost an extra Australian dollar (A$)22,000 per diagnosed child and was associated with 0.45 more QALYs per diagnosed child compared with targeted screening to 5 years, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of A$48,000 per QALY gained. The ICERs for language outcomes lay between A$3,900 (for expressive language score) and A$83,500 per one-point improvement in language scor

OBJECTIVES: While all newborns in Australia are tested for congenital hearing loss through universal newborn hearing screening programs, some children will acquire hearing loss in their first five years of life. Delayed diagnosed or undiagnosed hearing loss in children can have substantial immediate- and long-term consequences. It can significantly reduce school readiness, language and communication development, social and emotional development, and mental health. It can also compromise lifetime educational achievements and employment opportunities and future economic contribution to society through lost productivity. The need for a universal hearing screening program for children entering their first year of primary school has been noted in two separate Australian Government hearing inquiries in the last decade. Sound Scouts is a hearing screening application (app) that tests for hearing loss in children using a tablet or mobile device, supervised by parents at home. It tests for sensorineural or permanent conductive hearing loss and central auditory processing disorder in children. In 2018 the Australian Government funded the roll-out of Sound Scouts to allow up to 600,000 children to test their hearing using Sound Scouts. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of screening 5-year-old children for hearing loss using Sound Scouts at home, compared with no screening. DESIGN: A decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of administering Sound Scouts over a 20-year time horizon. Testing accuracy was based on comparing Sound Scouts test results to clinical test results while other parameters were based on published data. Costs were estimated from the perspective of the Australian health care system. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: Sound Scouts is estimated to result in an average incremental cost of A$61.02 and an average incremental increase in QALYs o

Non-preference-based patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are popular in health outcomes research. These measures, however, cannot be used to estimate health state utilities, limiting their usefulness for economic evaluations. Mapping PROMs to a multi-attribute utility instrument is one solution. While mapping is commonly conducted using econometric techniques, failing to specify the complex interactions between variables may lead to inaccurate prediction of utilities, resulting in inaccurate estimates of cost-effectiveness and suboptimal funding decisions. These issues can be addressed using machine learning. This paper evaluates the use of machine learning as a mapping tool. We adopt a comprehensive approach to compare six machine learning techniques with eight econometric techniques to map the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Global Health 10 (PROMIS-GH10) to the EuroQol five dimensions (EQ-5D-5L). Using data collected from 2015 Australians, we find the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model out-performed all machine learning techniques and the adjusted limited dependent variable mixture model (ALDVMM) out-performed all econometric techniques, with the LASSO performing better than ALDVMM. The variable selection feature of LASSO was then used to enhance the performance of the ALDVMM in a hybrid model. Our analysis identifies the potential benefits and challenges of using machine learning techniques for mapping and offers important insights for future research.

Research over the past decades has demonstrated the explanatory power of emotions, feelings, motivations, moods, and other affective processes when trying to understand and predict how we think and behave. In this consensus article, we ask: has the increasingly recognized impact of affective phenomena ushered in a new era, the era of affectivism?

BACKGROUND: Improvements in primary care quality are often proposed as a solution to rises in emergency department (ED) attendances. However, there is little agreement on what constitutes an avoidable attendance, and the relationship between primary care quality and ED demand remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the size of the associations between primary care quality and volumes of ED attendances classified as avoidable. METHODS: Retrospective observational study of all attendances at EDs in England during 2015/2016, applying three definitions of avoidable attendance. We linked practice-level counts of attendances to seven measures of primary care access, patient experience and clinical quality for 7521 practices. We used count data regressions to associate attendance counts with levels of quality. We then calculated proportions of attendances associated with levels of primary care quality below the national average. RESULTS: Attendance volumes were negatively related to three of the seven quality measures. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for all attendances associated with 10 percentage-point differences in quality were 0.987 for clinical quality and 0.987 for easy telephone access and 0.978 for ability to get an appointment. These associations were relatively stronger for narrower definitions of avoidable attendances (for the narrowest definition, IRRs=0.966, 0.976 and 0.934, respectively) but represented fewer attendances in absolute terms. 341 000 (2.4%) attendances were associated with levels of primary care quality below the national average in 2015/2016. CONCLUSION: ED attendances are sensitive to primary care quality, but magnitudes of these associations are small. Attendances are much less responsive to differences in primary care quality than indicated by estimates of the prevalence of avoidable attendances. This may explain the failure of initiatives to reduce attendances through primary care improvements.

Emergency department attendances are rising in several countries. Many of the policies aimed at reducing emergency department attendances are based on the assumption that a proportion of current utilization is ‘avoidable’ and therefore could be reduced. In considering how to achieve this aim, it is important to first understand the problem. In this essay, we review the literature on the concept and identification of avoidable emergency department attendances in England. We identified three areas of inconsistency surrounding avoidable emergency department attendances: the terminology, the underlying definition, and the method used to identify avoidable attendances. We offer a more nuanced definition which may better support action to reduce emergency department activity. Recognizing that there are different types of undesirable utilization which vary by underlying causes and potential solutions will aid policy makers in identifying areas where policies targeting reductions in emergency department attendances would best be directed.

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Background: Interacting with patients can elicit a myriad of emotions in health-care providers. This may result in satisfaction or put providers at risk for stress-related conditions such as burnout. The present study attempted to identify emotions that promote provider well-being. Following eudaimonic models of well-being, we tested whether certain types of emotions that reflect fulfilment of basic needs (self-worth, bonding with patients) rather than positive emotions in general (as suggested by hedonic models) are linked to well-being. Specifically, we hypothesized that well-being is associated with positive emotions directed at the self, which reflect self-worth, and positive as well as negative emotions (e.g., worry) directed at the patient, which reflect bonding. However, we expected positive emotions directed at an object/situation (e.g., curiosity for a treatment) to be unrelated to well-being, because they do not reflect fulfilment of basic needs. Methods: Fifty eight physicians, nurses, and psychotherapists participated in the study. First, in qualitative interviews, they reported their emotions directed at the self, the patient, or an object/situation during distressing interactions with patients. These emotions were categorised into positive emotions directed towards the self, the patient, and an object/situation, and negative emotions directed towards the patient that reflect bonding. Second, providers completed questionnaires to assess their hedonic and eudaimonic well-being. The well-being scores of providers who did and did not experience these emotions were compared. Results: Providers who experienced positive emotions directed towards the self or the patient had higher well-being than those who did not. Moreover, for the first time, we found evidence for higher well-being in providers reporting negative patient-directed emotions during distressing interactions. There was no difference between providers who did and did not experience positive object

Introduction With almost 50% of cases preventable and the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in place, colorectal cancer (CRC) is a prime candidate for investment to reduce the cancer burden. The challenge is determining effective ways to reduce morbidity and mortality and their implementation through policy and practice. Pathways-Bowel is a multistage programme that aims to identify best-value investment in CRC control by integrating expert and end-user engagement; relevant evidence; modelled interventions to guide future investment; and policy-driven implementation of interventions using evidence-based methods. Methods and analysis Pathways-Bowel is an iterative work programme incorporating a calibrated and validated CRC natural history model for Australia (Policy1-Bowel) and assessing the health and cost outcomes and resource use of targeted interventions. Experts help identify and prioritise modelled evaluations of changing trends and interventions and critically assess results to advise on their real-world applicability. Where appropriate the results are used to support public policy change and make the case for optimal investment in specific CRC control interventions. Fourteen high-priority evaluations have been modelled or planned, including evaluations of CRC outcomes from the changing prevalence of modifiable exposures, including smoking and body fatness; potential benefits of daily aspirin intake as chemoprevention; increasing CRC incidence in people aged <50 years; increasing screening participation in the general and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations; alternative screening technologies and modalities; and changes to follow-up surveillance protocols. Pathways-Bowel is a unique, comprehensive approach to evaluating CRC control; no prior body of work has assessed the relative benefits of a variety of interventions across CRC development and progression to produce a list of best-value investments. Ethics and dissemination Ethi

INTRODUCTION:With almost 50% of cases preventable and the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in place, colorectal cancer (CRC) is a prime candidate for investment to reduce the cancer burden. The challenge is determining effective ways to reduce morbidity and mortality and their implementation through policy and practice. Pathways-Bowel is a multistage programme that aims to identify best-value investment in CRC control by integrating expert and end-user engagement; relevant evidence; modelled interventions to guide future investment; and policy-driven implementation of interventions using evidence-based methods. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Pathways-Bowel is an iterative work programme incorporating a calibrated and validated CRC natural history model for Australia (Policy1-Bowel) and assessing the health and cost outcomes and resource use of targeted interventions. Experts help identify and prioritise modelled evaluations of changing trends and interventions and critically assess results to advise on their real-world applicability. Where appropriate the results are used to support public policy change and make the case for optimal investment in specific CRC control interventions. Fourteen high-priority evaluations have been modelled or planned, including evaluations of CRC outcomes from the changing prevalence of modifiable exposures, including smoking and body fatness; potential benefits of daily aspirin intake as chemoprevention; increasing CRC incidence in people aged <50 years; increasing screening participation in the general and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations; alternative screening technologies and modalities; and changes to follow-up surveillance protocols. Pathways-Bowel is a unique, comprehensive approach to evaluating CRC control; no prior body of work has assessed the relative benefits of a variety of interventions across CRC development and progression to produce a list of best-value investments. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:Eth