1. Modeling the regional spread and control of vancomycin-resistant enterococci
- Author
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Lee, Bruce Y, Yilmaz, S Levent, Wong, Kim F, Bartsch, Sarah M, Eubank, Stephen, Song, Yeohan, Avery, Taliser R, Christie, Richard, Brown, Shawn T, Epstein, Joshua M, Parker, Jon I, and Huang, Susan S
- Subjects
Health Services and Systems ,Biomedical and Clinical Sciences ,Clinical Sciences ,Health Sciences ,Clinical Research ,Emerging Infectious Diseases ,Patient Safety ,Good Health and Well Being ,Anti-Bacterial Agents ,California ,Computer Simulation ,Cross Infection ,Enterococcus ,Gram-Positive Bacterial Infections ,Hospitals ,Humans ,Infection Control ,Prevalence ,Vancomycin ,Vancomycin Resistance ,Vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus ,Health care-associated infections ,Modeling ,Simulation ,article ,bacterial colonization ,bacterial transmission ,disease surveillance ,emergency care ,infection control ,nonhuman ,United States ,vancomycin resistant Enterococcus ,Nursing ,Public Health and Health Services ,Epidemiology ,Clinical sciences ,Public health - Abstract
BackgroundBecause patients can remain colonized with vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) for long periods of time, VRE may spread from one health care facility to another.MethodsUsing the Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst, an agent-based model of patient flow among all Orange County, California, hospitals and communities, we quantified the degree and speed at which changes in VRE colonization prevalence in a hospital may affect prevalence in other Orange County hospitals.ResultsA sustained 10% increase in VRE colonization prevalence in any 1 hospital caused a 2.8% (none to 62%) average relative increase in VRE prevalence in all other hospitals. Effects took from 1.5 to >10 years to fully manifest. Larger hospitals tended to have greater affect on other hospitals.ConclusionsWhen monitoring and controlling VRE, decision makers may want to account for regional effects. Knowing a hospital's connections with other health care facilities via patient sharing can help determine which hospitals to include in a surveillance or control program.
- Published
- 2013