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Objective: To assess how reliable UK routine data are for ascertaining major bleeding events compared to adjudicated follow-up. Methods: The ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes) primary prevention trial randomised 15480 UK people with diabetes to aspirin versus matching placebo. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding (including intracranial haemorrhage, sight-threatening eye bleeding, serious gastrointestinal bleeding, and other major bleeding [epistaxis, haemoptysis, haematuria, vaginal, and other bleeding]) ascertained by direct-participant mail-based follow-up, with >90% of outcomes undergoing adjudication. Nearly all participants were linked to routinely collected hospitalisation and death data, (i.e. routine data). An algorithm categorised bleeding events from routine data as major/minor. Kappa statistics were used to assess agreement between data sources, and randomised comparisons were re-run using routine data. Results: When adjudicated follow-up and routine data were compared, there was agreement for 318 major bleeding events, with routine data identifying 281 additional-potential events, and not identifying 241 participant-reported events (kappa 0.53, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 0.49-0.57). Repeating ASCEND’s randomised comparisons using routine data only found estimated relative and absolute effects of allocation to aspirin versus placebo on major bleeding similar to adjudicated follow-up (adjudicated follow-up: aspirin 314[4.1%] vs placebo 245[3.2%]; rate ratio [RR] 1.29, 95%CI 1.09-1.52; absolute excess +6.3/5000 person-years [mean standard error ±2.1]; versus routine data: 327[4.2%] vs 272[3.5%]; RR 1.21, 95%CI 1.03-1.41; absolute excess +5.0/5000[±2.2]). Conclusions: Analyses of the ASCEND randomised trial found that major bleeding events ascertained via UK routine data sources provided relative and absolute treatment effects similar to adjudicated follow-up.

Background Aspirin is widely used for cardioprotection with its antiplatelet effects due to the blocking of thromboxane A2 production. However, it has been suggested that platelet abnormalities in those with diabetes prevent adequate suppression with once daily aspirin. Methods In the ASCEND randomized double-blind trial of aspirin 100 mg once daily versus placebo in participants with diabetes but no history of cardiovascular disease, suppression was assessed by measuring 11-dehydro-thromboxane B2 excretion in urine (U-TXM) in a randomly selected sample of 152 participants (76 aspirin arm, 74 placebo arm), plus 198 (93 aspirin arm, 105 placebo arm) adherent to study drugs and selected to maximize the numbers ingesting their last tablet 12–24 h before urine sampling. U-TXM was assayed using a competitive ELISA assay in samples mailed a mean of 2 years after randomization, with time since taking last aspirin/placebo tablet recorded at the time of sample provision. Effective suppression (U-TXM Results In the random sample, U-TXM was 71% (95% CI 64–76%) lower among aspirin vs placebo-allocated participants. Among adherent participants in the aspirin arm, U-TXM was 72% (95% CI 69–75%) lower than in the placebo arm and 77% achieved effective suppression overall. Suppression was similar among those who ingested their last tablet more than 12 h before urine sampling with levels in the aspirin arm 72% (95% CI 67–77%) lower than in the placebo arm and 70% achieving effective suppression. Conclusions Daily aspirin significantly reduces U-TXM in participants with diabetes, including at 12–24 h after ingestion. Trial registration ISRCTN ISRCTN60635500. Registered on 1 Sept 2005; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00135226. Registered on 24 Aug 2005.

Background Taller adult height is associated with lower risks of ischemic heart disease in mendelian randomization (MR) studies, but little is known about the causal relevance of height for different subtypes of ischemic stroke. The present study examined the causal relevance of height for different subtypes of ischemic stroke. Methods and findings Height-associated genetic variants (up to 2,337) from previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) were used to construct genetic instruments in different ancestral populations. Two-sample MR approaches were used to examine the associations of genetically determined height with ischemic stroke and its subtypes (cardioembolic stroke, large-artery stroke, and small-vessel stroke) in multiple ancestries (the MEGASTROKE consortium, which included genome-wide studies of stroke and stroke subtypes: 60,341 ischemic stroke cases) supported by additional cases in individuals of white British ancestry (UK Biobank [UKB]: 4,055 cases) and Chinese ancestry (China Kadoorie Biobank [CKB]: 10,297 cases). The associations of genetically determined height with established cardiovascular and other risk factors were examined in 336,750 participants from UKB and 58,277 participants from CKB. In MEGASTROKE, genetically determined height was associated with a 4% lower risk (odds ratio [OR] 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94, 0.99; p = 0.007) of ischemic stroke per 1 standard deviation (SD) taller height, but this masked a much stronger positive association of height with cardioembolic stroke (13% higher risk, OR 1.13 [95% CI 1.07, 1.19], p < 0.001) and stronger inverse associations with large-artery stroke (11% lower risk, OR 0.89 [0.84, 0.95], p < 0.001) and small-vessel stroke (13% lower risk, OR 0.87 [0.83, 0.92], p < 0.001). The findings in both UKB and CKB were directionally concordant with those observed in MEGASTROKE, but did not reach statistical significance: For presumed cardioembolic stroke, the ORs were 1.08 (95% CI 0.86, 1.35; p = 0.53) in UKB and 1.20 (0.77, 1.85; p = 0.43) in CKB; for other subtypes of ischemic stroke in UKB, the OR was 0.97 (95% CI 0.90, 1.05; p = 0.49); and for other nonlacunar stroke and lacunar stroke in CKB, the ORs were 0.89 (0.80, 1.00; p = 0.06) and 0.99 (0.88, 1.12; p = 0.85), respectively. In addition, genetically determined height was also positively associated with atrial fibrillation (available only in UKB), and with lean body mass and lung function, and inversely associated with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol in both British and Chinese ancestries. Limitations of this study include potential bias from assortative mating or pleiotropic effects of genetic variants and incomplete generalizability of genetic instruments to different populations. Conclusions The findings provide support for a causal association of taller adult height with higher risk of cardioembolic stroke and lower risk of other ischemic stroke subtypes in diverse ancestries. Further research is needed to understand the shared biological and physical pathways underlying the associations between height and stroke risks, which could identify potential targets for treatments to prevent stroke.

Importance: Routinely collected data could substantially decrease the cost of conducting trials. Objective: To assess the accuracy and completeness of UK routine data for ascertaining serious vascular events (SVEs) compared with adjudicated follow-up data. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial. From June 24, 2005, to July 28, 2011, the ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes) primary prevention trial used mail-based methods to randomize people with diabetes without evidence of atherosclerotic vascular disease using a 2 × 2 factorial design to aspirin and/or ω-fatty acids vs matching placebo in the UK. Direct participant mail-based follow-up was the main source of outcome data, with more than 90% of the primary outcome events undergoing adjudication. Follow-up was completed on July 31, 2017. In parallel, more than 99% of participants were linked to routinely collected hospital admission and death registry data (ie, routine data), enabling post hoc randomized comparisons of different sources of outcome data (conducted from September 1, 2018, to October 1, 2021). Interventions: Random allocation to 100 mg of aspirin once daily vs matching placebo and separately to 1 g of ω-3 fatty acids once daily vs placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome consisted of SVEs (a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack [TIA], or vascular death, excluding hemorrhagic stroke). Results: A total of 15 480 participants were randomized (mean [SD] age, 63 [9] years; 9684 [62.6%] men) and followed up for a mean (SD) of 7.4 (1.8) years. For SVEs, agreement between adjudicated direct follow-up and routine data sources was strong (1401 vs 1127 events; κ = 0.78 [95% CI, 0.76-0.80]; sensitivity, 72.0% [95% CI, 69.7%-74.4%]; specificity, 99.2% [95% CI, 99.0%-99.3%]), and sensitivity improved for SVEs excluding transient ischemic attack (1129 vs 1026 events; sensitivity, 80.6% [95% CI, 78.3%-82.9%]). Rate ratios for the aspirin-randomized comparison for adjudicated direct follow-up vs follow-up solely through routine data alone were 0.88 (95% CI, 0.79-0.97) vs 0.91 (95% CI, 0.81-1.02) for the primary outcome and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.82-1.03) vs 0.91 (95% CI, 0.80-1.02) for SVEs excluding TIA. Results were similar for the ω-3 fatty acid comparison, and adjudication did not seem to markedly change rate ratios. Conclusions and Relevance: Post hoc analyses of the ASCEND trial suggest that routinely collected hospital admission and death registry data in the UK could be used as the sole method of follow-up for myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke resulting in hospitalization, vascular death, and arterial revascularization in primary prevention cardiovascular trials, without the need for verification by clinical adjudication.

Importance: Reliable evidence on modifiable risk factors for hip and major osteoporotic fractures in untreated populations could inform prevention strategies for hip fracture worldwide. Objectives: To estimate the age- and sex-specific incidence of hip, major osteoporotic and any fractures and examine their associated risk factors in Chinese adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective study of 512,715 adults, aged 30-79 years, recruited for the China Kadoorie Biobank from 10 diverse areas in China in 2004-2008 and followed up for 10 years. Exposures: Sociodemographic factors (e.g. age, sex, and education), medical history (e.g. CVD, diabetes, fracture, and rheumatoid arthritis), anthropometry (e.g. weight, waist-hip ratio) and lifestyle factors (e.g. smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activity, diet). Main Outcomes and Measures: Age- and sex-specific incidence rates of fracture types, and adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and population attributable fractions (PAF) for individual risk factors associated with fracture types. Results: The incidence rates of hip fracture in Chinese adults were 5.1 (95%CI 5.0- 5.3) per 10,000 person-years (2616 cases); and were higher in women than men (5.8 [5.5-6.1] vs 4.2 [3.9-4.5]) and increased by about 2 to 3-fold per 10 years older age. Among men, five risk factors for hip fracture including low education (HR=1.23; 95%CI 1.04-1.45), regular smoker (1.22, 1.03-1.45), lower weight (lowest vs other quintiles: 1.59, 1.34-1.88), alcohol drinker (1.18, 1.02-1.36), and prior fracture (1.62, 1.33-1.98) accounted for 44.3% of hip fractures. Among women, five risk factors including lower weight (lowest vs other quintiles: 1.30, 1.15-1.46), low physical activity (lowest vs other quintiles: 1.22, 1.10-1.35), diabetes (1.62, 1.41-1.86), prior fracture (1.54, 1.33-1.77), and self-rated poor health (1.29, 1.13-1.47), accounted for 24.9% of hip fractures. Associations of these risk factors with major osteoporotic (6857 cases) or any (15762 cases) fractures were weaker than those with hip fracture. Conclusions: The age- and sex-specific incidence rates of hip fracture in Chinese adults were comparable with those in Western populations. Five potentially modifiable factors accounted for half of all hip fractures in men and one quarter in women.

Background Large randomized trials are the best method to test the efficacy and safety of treatments expected to have moderate effects. We observed a significant decline in potential participants’ response to mailed invitations to participate in such trials over a 10-year period and investigated possible reasons behind this and potential modifications to the invitation process to mitigate it. Methods Participants who declined to participate in the HPS2-THRIVE trial were asked to give a reason. Formal focus groups were conducted to explore the reasons that potential participants might have for not participating. In addition, two embedded randomized comparisons around the timing of provision of the full participant information leaflet (PIL) and its style were conducted during recruitment into this large randomized trial. HPS2-THRIVE is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00461630). Results The commonest reason given for declining invitations related to mobility and transportation (despite the offer of travel expenses). Both the focus groups and potential participants who declined their invitation indicated concern about side-effects of the treatment (as presented in the PIL) as a reason for declining the invitation. Neither delaying provision of the full PIL until the potential participant attended the trial clinic, nor modifying the style of the PIL improved the proportion of potential participants entering the trial: odds ratio (OR) 1.05 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.94–1.17) and 1.10 (95% CI 0.94–1.28), respectively. However, modifying the style of the PIL did increase the proportion of participants attending screening appointments (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.03–1.33). Conclusions Many reasons given for not participating in trials are not tractable to individual trials. However, modification of the PIL does show potential to modestly improve participation. If further trials could identify similar simple interventions that were beneficial, their net effects could substantially improve trial participation and facilitate recruitment into large trials.

Importance Routinely collected data could substantially decrease the cost of conducting trials. Objective To assess the accuracy and completeness of UK routine data for ascertaining serious vascular events (SVEs) compared with adjudicated follow-up data. Design, Setting, and Participants This was a secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial. From June 24, 2005, to July 28, 2011, the ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes) primary prevention trial used mail-based methods to randomize people with diabetes without evidence of atherosclerotic vascular disease using a 2 × 2 factorial design to aspirin and/or ω-fatty acids vs matching placebo in the UK. Direct participant mail-based follow-up was the main source of outcome data, with more than 90% of the primary outcome events undergoing adjudication. Follow-up was completed on July 31, 2017. In parallel, more than 99% of participants were linked to routinely collected hospital admission and death registry data (ie, routine data), enabling post hoc randomized comparisons of different sources of outcome data (conducted from September 1, 2018, to October 1, 2021). Interventions Random allocation to 100 mg of aspirin once daily vs matching placebo and separately to 1 g of ω-3 fatty acids once daily vs placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome consisted of SVEs (a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack [TIA], or vascular death, excluding hemorrhagic stroke). Results A total of 15 480 participants were randomized (mean [SD] age, 63 [9] years; 9684 [62.6%] men) and followed up for a mean (SD) of 7.4 (1.8) years. For SVEs, agreement between adjudicated direct follow-up and routine data sources was strong (1401 vs 1127 events; κ = 0.78 [95% CI, 0.76-0.80]; sensitivity, 72.0% [95% CI, 69.7%-74.4%]; specificity, 99.2% [95% CI, 99.0%-99.3%]), and sensitivity improved for SVEs excluding transient ischemic attack (1129 vs 1026 events; sensitivity, 80.6% [95% CI, 78.3%-82.9%]). Rate ratios for the aspirin-randomized comparison for adjudicated direct follow-up vs follow-up solely through routine data alone were 0.88 (95% CI, 0.79-0.97) vs 0.91 (95% CI, 0.81-1.02) for the primary outcome and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.82-1.03) vs 0.91 (95% CI, 0.80-1.02) for SVEs excluding TIA. Results were similar for the ω-3 fatty acid comparison, and adjudication did not seem to markedly change rate ratios. Conclusions and Relevance Post hoc analyses of the ASCEND trial suggest that routinely collected hospital admission and death registry data in the UK could be used as the sole method of follow-up for myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke resulting in hospitalization, vascular death, and arterial revascularization in primary prevention cardiovascular trials, without the need for verification by clinical adjudication.

Objective To examine the causal relevance of lifelong differences in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) for ischemic stroke (IS) relative to that for coronary heart disease (CHD) using a Mendelian randomization approach. Methods We undertook a 2-sample Mendelian randomization, based on summary data, to estimate the causal relevance of LDL-C for risk of IS and CHD. Information from 62 independent genetic variants with genome-wide significant effects on LDL-C levels was used to estimate the causal effects of LDL-C for IS and IS subtypes (based on 12,389 IS cases from METASTROKE) and for CHD (based on 60,801 cases from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D). We then assessed the effects of LDL-C on IS and CHD for heterogeneity. Results A 1 mmol/L higher genetically determined LDL-C was associated with a 50% higher risk of CHD (odds ratio [OR] 1.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32−1.68, p = 1.1 × 10−8). By contrast, the causal effect of LDL-C was much weaker for IS (OR 1.12, 95% CI 0.96−1.30, p = 0.14; p for heterogeneity = 2.6 × 10−3) and, in particular, for cardioembolic stroke (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.84−1.33, p = 0.64; p for heterogeneity = 8.6 × 10−3) when compared with that for CHD. Conclusions In contrast with the consistent effects of LDL-C-lowering therapies on IS and CHD, genetic variants that confer lifelong LDL-C differences show a weaker effect on IS than on CHD. The relevance of etiologically distinct IS subtypes may contribute to the differences observed.