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47 results on '"Paquet, Emmanuel"'

3. An Application of a Stochastic Semi-Continuous Simulation Method for Flood Frequency Analysis: A Case Study in Slovakia

Author

Valent Peter and Paquet Emmanuel

Subjects
SCHADEX, MEWP, MORDOR, Stochastic rainfall model, Rainfall-runoff model, Flood frequency analysis, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), TA1-2040
Abstract

A reliable estimate of extreme flood characteristics has always been an active topic in hydrological research. Over the decades a large number of approaches and their modifications have been proposed and used, with various methods utilizing continuous simulation of catchment runoff, being the subject of the most intensive research in the last decade. In this paper a new and promising stochastic semi-continuous method is used to estimate extreme discharges in two mountainous Slovak catchments of the rivers Váh and Hron, in which snow-melt processes need to be taken into account. The SCHADEX method used, couples a precipitation probabilistic model with a rainfall-runoff model used to both continuously simulate catchment hydrological conditions and to transform generated synthetic rainfall events into corresponding discharges. The stochastic nature of the method means that a wide range of synthetic rainfall events were simulated on various historical catchment conditions, taking into account not only the saturation of soil, but also the amount of snow accumulated in the catchment. The results showed that the SCHADEX extreme discharge estimates with return periods of up to 100 years were comparable to those estimated by statistical approaches. In addition, two reconstructed historical floods with corresponding return periods of 100 and 1000 years were compared to the SCHADEX estimates. The results confirmed the usability of the method for estimating design discharges with a recurrence interval of more than 100 years and its applicability in Slovak conditions.

Published
2017
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7. Towards a hydrological consensus about the 2nd – 3rd October 2020 ALEX storm event in the French “Alpes Maritimes” region

Author

Pons, Frederic, primary, Bonnifait, Laurent, additional, Criado, David, additional, Payrastre, Olivier, additional, Billaud, Felix, additional, Brigode, Pierre, additional, Fouchier, Catherine, additional, Gourbesville, Philippe, additional, Kuss, Damien, additional, Le Nouveau, Nathalie, additional, Martin, Olivier, additional, Nomis, Stan, additional, Paquet, Emmanuel, additional, and Cardelli, Bernard, additional

Published
2022
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25. Méthodes probabilistes et déterministes d'estimation des débits extrêmes : comparaison de résultats sur deux bassins versants de Colombie-Britannique (canada)

Author

Brigode, Pierre, Mićović, Zoran, Bernardara, Pietro, Paquet, Emmanuel, Gailhard, Joël, Garavaglia, Federico, Garçon, Rémy, Ribstein, Pierre, Laboratoire National d’Hydraulique et Environnement (EDF R&D LNHE), EDF R&D (EDF R&D), EDF (EDF)-EDF (EDF), Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols (METIS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), BC Hydro, Engineering, Développement Mesures & Méthodes [DMM], Division Production Ingéniérie Hydraulique (EDF DPIH), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
PMF, SCHADEX, [SPI.GCIV.RISQ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques, Estimation of extreme streamflow, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, MEWP, Prédétermination des débits extrêmes, PMP
Abstract

International audience; Two different extreme streamflow estimation methods have been applied and compared over two catchments located on the Pacific coast of the British Columbia Canadian province: the classical deterministic approach Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) / Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) and the Simulation Climato-Hydrologique pour l’Appréciation des Débits EXtrêmes (SCHADEX) probabilistic approach, aiming at stochastically simulating millions of floods. Ratios between 10000-year return period daily precipitation values estimated by the SCHADEX method and PMP values are close to 1, while ratios between 10000-year return period daily streamflow values estimated by the SCHADEX method and PMF values are greater than 1.25. These ratio values are similar to the ones obtained within the comparison of PMF values and extreme streamflow estimation performed with the GRADEX method [Guillot and Duband 1967] for 43 different catchments, with ratios ranging between 1.08 and 3.52 [CFGB, 1994]. This paper illustrates the need of estimating extreme rainfall and streamflow by using the same hydroclimatologic inputs (in particular for the catchment rainfall series which should be estimated with the same catchment water balance hypothesis) in order to properly compare extreme rainfall and flood estimation methods. Such an approach allows to discuss the rainfall-runoff transformation differences obtained when different hydrological models are considered.; Deux méthodes d’estimation des débits extrêmes ont été appliquées sur deux bassins versants situés sur la côte Pacifique de la Colombie‑Britannique, province canadienne : la méthode déterministe classique Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) / Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) et la méthode probabiliste Simulation Climato‑Hydrologique pour l’Appréciation des Débits EXtrêmes (SCHADEX). Les ratios entre les valeurs de PMP et les pluies journalières de période de retour 10000 ans estimées par la méthode SCHADEX sont proches de 1, alors que les ratios entre les valeurs de PMF et les débits journaliers de période de retour 10000 ans estimés par la méthode SCHADEX sont supérieurs à 1.25. Ces valeurs de ratios d’estimation de débits extrêmes sont du même ordre de grandeur que celles obtenues lors de la comparaison de valeurs de PMF et d’estimations de débits extrêmes réalisées avec la méthode du GRADEX [Guillot et Duband 1967] pour 43 bassins versants, pour lesquels les valeurs de ratios étaient comprises entre 1.08 et 3.52 [CFGB, 1994]. Cette communication illustre la nécessité de réaliser des estimations de pluies et crues extrêmes avec les mêmes entrées hydroclimatiques (et notamment des séries de pluies de bassin construites avec les mêmes hypothèses) pour réaliser une comparaison rigoureuse de méthodes de prédétermination. Une telle approche permettrait notamment de discuter des différences de transformation pluie‑débit réalisées par les différents modèles hydrologiques considérés.

Published
2015

26. Dependence of model-based extreme flood estimation on the calibration period: the case study of the Kamp River (Austria)

Author

Brigode, Pierre, Paquet, Emmanuel, Bernardara, Pietro, Gailhard, Joël, Garavaglia, Federico, Ribstein, Pierre, Bourgin, François, Perrin, Charles, Andréassian, Vazken, Hydrosystèmes et bioprocédés (UR HBAN), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Développement Mesures & Méthodes [DMM], Division Production Ingéniérie Hydraulique (EDF DPIH), EDF (EDF)-EDF (EDF), Laboratoire National d’Hydraulique et Environnement (EDF R&D LNHE), EDF R&D (EDF R&D), Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols (METIS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Hydrosystèmes et Bioprocédés (UR HBAN), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)

Subjects
extreme floods, SCHADEX, bootstrap, Non stationarity, model calibration and evaluation, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, IAHS workshop
Abstract

International audience; The Kamp River is a particularly interesting case study for testing flood frequency estimation methods, since it experienced a major flood in August 2002. Here, this catchment is studied in order to quantify the influence of such a remarkable flood event on the calibration of a rainfall-runoff model, in particular when it is used in a stochastic simulation method for flood estimation, by performing numerous rainfall-runoff model calibrations (based on split-sample and bootstrap tests). The results confirmed the usefulness of the multi-period and bootstrap testing schemes to identify the dependence of model performance and flood estimates on the information contained in the calibration period. The August 2002 event appears to play a dominating role for the Kamp River, since the presence or absence of the event within the calibration sub-periods strongly influences the rainfall-runoff model calibration and the extreme flood estimations that are based on the calibrated model.; La rivière Kamp est un cas d’étude particulièrement intéressant pour le test de méthodes de prédétermination des crues, puisqu’elle a vu une crue exceptionnelle se produire en août 2002. Dans cet article, nous étudions ce bassin versant pour quantifier l’influence de ce type de crue remarquable sur le calage d’un modèle pluie-débit, en particulier lorsqu’il est utilisé dans une méthode de simulation stochastique pour la prédétermination des crues. Pour cela, nous réalisons de nombreux calages du modèle pluie-débit (en nous basant sur des tests de bootstrap et sur des périodes indépendantes). Les résultats obtenus confirment l’utilité des procédures de calages multi-périodes et de « calages bootstrap » pour identifier la dépendance des performances des modèles hydrologiques et des estimations de crues extrêmes aux informations contenues dans les périodes de calage. L’événement de 2002 apparait jouer un rôle dominant pour la rivière Kamp, puisque la présence de l’événement au sein des périodes de calage influence fortement le calage du modèle pluie-débit et l’estimation des crues extrêmes reposant sur le modèle calé. L’ensemble des jeux de paramètres obtenus avec des périodes de calages ne contenant pas l’épisode de 2002 produit des estimations de crues extrêmes systématiquement plus fortes que celles obtenues avec les autres jeux de paramètres.

Published
2015

27. Calibration period dependence of extreme flood estimations (with a model-based flood frequency method)

Author

Brigode, Pierre, Bernardara, Pietro, Paquet, Emmanuel, Gailhard, Joël, Garavaglia, Federico, Pierre, Ribstein, Mićović, Zoran, Brigode, Pierre, Géoazur (GEOAZUR 7329), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, and Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)

Subjects
[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.ME] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDE.IE] Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2013

28. Sensitivity analysis of SCHADEX extreme flood estimations to observed hydro-meteorological variability

Author

Brigode, Pierre, Paquet, Emmanuel, Bernardara, Pietro, Gailhard, Joël, Garavaglia, Federico, Pierre, Ribstein, Brigode, Pierre, Géoazur (GEOAZUR 7329), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, and Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)

Subjects
[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.ME] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDE.IE] Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2013

29. Sensitivity analysis of SCHADEX extreme flood estimations to the calibration period used for the MORDOR rainfall-runoff model

Author

Brigode, Pierre, Bernardara, Pietro, Paquet, Emmanuel, Gailhard, Joël, Garavaglia, Federico, Ribstein, Pierre, Merz, Ralf, Géoazur (GEOAZUR 7329), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA), and Brigode, Pierre

Subjects
[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.ME] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDE.IE] Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2013

30. Sensitivity analysis of SCHADEX extreme flood estimations to observed hydrometeorological variability

Author

Brigode, Pierre, Bernardara, Pietro, Paquet, Emmanuel, Gailhard, Joël, Garavaglia, Federico, Merz, Ralf, Mićović, Zoran, Lawrence, Deborah, Ribstein, Pierre, Laboratoire National d’Hydraulique et Environnement (EDF R&D LNHE), EDF R&D (EDF R&D), EDF (EDF)-EDF (EDF), Structure et fonctionnement des systèmes hydriques continentaux (SISYPHE), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), EDF - Division Technique Générale (DTG), EDF (EDF), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), BC Hydro, Engineering, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris)

Subjects
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes
Abstract

International audience; Stochastic flood simulation methods are typically based on a rainfall probabilistic model (used for simulating continuous rainfall series or for estimating probabilities of random rainfall events) and on a rainfall-runoff model. Usually, both of these models are calibrated over observed hydrometeorological series, which may be subject to significant variability and/or nonstationarity over time. The general aim of this study is thus to propose and test a methodology for performing a sensitivity analysis of extreme flood estimations to observed hydrometeorological variability. The methodology consists of performing a set of blockbootstrap experiments: for each experiment, the data used for calibration of a particular model (e.g., the rainfall probabilistic model) is bootstrapped while the model structure and the calibration process are held constant. The SCHADEX extreme flood estimation method has been applied over six catchments located in different regions of the world. The results show first that the variability of observed rainfall hazard has the most significant impact on the extreme flood estimates. Then, consideration of different rainfall-runoff calibration periods generates a significant spread of extreme flood estimated values. Finally, the variability of the catchment saturation hazard has a nonsignificant impact on the extreme flood estimates. An important point raised by this study is the dominating role played by outliers within the observed records for extreme flood estimation.

Published
2013

31. How to introduce climate change into extreme precipitation predetermination? First attempts to tamper with the MEWP method

Author

Gérardin, Maxime, Brigode, Pierre, Bernardara, Pietro, Gailhard, Joël, Garçon, Rémy, Paquet, Emmanuel, Pierre, Ribstein, Géoazur (GEOAZUR 7329), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA), and Brigode, Pierre

Subjects
[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.ME] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDE.IE] Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2013

32. Méthodes probabilistes et déterministes d’estimation des débits extrêmes : Comparaison de résultats sur deux bassins versants de Colombie Britannique (Canada)

Author

Brigode, Pierre, Mićović, Zoran, Bernardara, Pietro, Paquet, Emmanuel, Gailhard, Joël, Garavaglia, Federico, Garçon, Rémy, Pierre, Ribstein, Brigode, Pierre, Géoazur (GEOAZUR 7329), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, and Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])

Subjects
[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.ME] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDE.IE] Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2013

33. An objective cross-validation framework for mapping rainfall hazard based on rain gauge data.

Author

Blanchet, Juliette, Paquet, Emmanuel, Ayar, Pradeebane Vaittinada, and Penot, David

Abstract

We propose an objective framework for estimating rainfall cumulative distribution function within a region when data are only available at rain gauges. Our methodology is based on the evaluation of several goodness-of-fit scores in a cross-validation framework, allowing to assess goodness-of-fit of the full distribution but with a particular focus on its tail. Cross-validation is applied both to select the most appropriate statistical distribution at station locations and to validate the mapping of these distributions. Our methodology is applied to daily rainfall in the Ardèche catchment in South of France, a 2260 km2 catchment with strong disparities in rainfall distribution. Results show preference for a mixture of Gamma distribution over seasons and weather patterns, with parameters interpolated with thin plate spline across this region. However the framework presented in this paper is general and could be likewise applied in any region, with possibly different conclusion depending on the subsequent rainfall processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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34. Link between rainfall-based weather pattern classification over British Columbia and El Niño Southern Oscillations

Author

Brigode, Pierre, Mićović, Zoran, Bernardara, Pietro, Gailhard, Joël, Paquet, Emmanuel, Garavaglia, Federico, Pierre, Ribstein, Géoazur (GEOAZUR 7329), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA), and Brigode, Pierre

Subjects
[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.ME] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDE.IE] Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2012

35. Comparison of a new rainfall-based weather patterns classification with 76 COST733 weather type classifications over Austria

Author

Bernardara, Pietro, Brigode, Pierre, Gailhard, Joël, Garavaglia, Federico, Paquet, Emmanuel, Pierre, Ribstein, Géoazur (GEOAZUR 7329), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA), and Brigode, Pierre

Subjects
[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.ME] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDE.IE] Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2012

36. Complete application of the SCHADEX method on an Austrian catchment: extreme flood estimation on the Kamp river at Zwettl

Author

Brigode, Pierre, Bernardara, Pietro, Paquet, Emmanuel, Gailhard, Joël, Pierre, Ribstein, Merz, Ralf, Géoazur (GEOAZUR 7329), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA), and Brigode, Pierre

Subjects
[SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.ME] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDE.IE] Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2011

37. Impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrological realism: from lumped to semi-distributed approach.

Author

Garavaglia, Federico, Lay, Matthieu Le, Gottardi, Fréderic, Garçon, Rémy, Gailhard, Joël, Paquet, Emmanuel, and Mathevet, Thibault

Abstract

Model intercomparison experiments are widely used to investigate and improve hydrological model performances. However, a study based only on runoff simulation is not sufficient to discriminate different model structures. Hence, there is a need to improve hydrological models for specific signatures of streamflow (e.g. low and high flow) and multivariable predictions (e.g. soil moisture, snow and groundwater). This study assesses the impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrological realism using three versions of an hydrological model called MORDOR: the historical lumped structure and a revisited formulation inflected for lumped and semi-distributed structures. In particular, the main goal of this paper is to investigate the relative impact of model equations and spatial discretization on flow simulation, snowpack representation and evapotranspiration estimate. The models comparison is based on an extensive dataset composed of 50 catchments located in French mountainous regions. The evaluation framework is founded on a multi-criteria split sample strategy. All models were calibrated using an automatic optimization method based on an efficient genetic algorithm. The evaluation framework is enriched by the assessment of snow and evapotranspiration modeling against in-situ and satellite data. The results showed that the new model formulations perform significantly better than the initial one in terms of the various streamflow signatures, snow and evapotranspiration predictions. The semi-distributed approach provides better calibration-validation performances for snow cover area, snow water equivalent and runoff simulation especially for nival catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2017
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39. Résultats du projet ExtraFlo (ANR 2009-2013) sur l'estimation des pluies et crues extrêmes

Author

Lang, Michel, primary, Arnaud, Patrick, additional, Carreau, Julie, additional, Deaux, Nathalie, additional, Dezileau, Laurent, additional, Garavaglia, Federico, additional, Latapie, Audrey, additional, Neppel, Luc, additional, Paquet, Emmanuel, additional, Renard, Benjamin, additional, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, additional, Terrier, Benoît, additional, Veysseire, Jean-Michel, additional, Aubert, Yoann, additional, Auffray, Annick, additional, Borchi, François, additional, Bernardara, Pietro, additional, Carre, Jean-Claude, additional, Chambon, Dominique, additional, Cipriani, Thomas, additional, Delgado, José-Luis, additional, Doumenc, Hilaire, additional, Fantin, Romain, additional, Jourdain, Sylvie, additional, Kochanek, Krzysztof, additional, Paquier, André, additional, Sauquet, Eric, additional, and Tramblay, Yves, additional

Published
2014
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46. Human assessment of hydrometeorological forecasts and communication of their uncertainties in a decision making context

Author

Gar?on, R?my, Houdant, Beno?t, Garavaglia, Federico, Mathevet, Thibault, Paquet, Emmanuel, and Gailhard, Jo?l

Abstract

In operational conditions, the actual quality of meteorological and hydrological forecasts do not allow decision-making in a certain future. In this context, meteorological and hydrological probabilistic forecasts allow a better representation of forecasts uncertainties. Compared to classical deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts improve the human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. Probabilistic forecasts and its human expertise are also necessary to ensure a good communication of hydrometeorological forecasts uncertainties to end-users. However, probabilistic forecasts must be statistically calibrated and our experienced have revealed that forecasters tend to under-estimate forecasts uncertainties. To achieve a better statistical calibration of ensemble forecasts, recent development made at EDF try to take into account the automatic generation of meteorological ensembles and rainfall-runoff uncertaintiesLes performances actuelles de la mod?lisation en hydrologie comme en m?t?orologie ne permettent pas, dans la plupart des probl?mes op?rationnels, une prise de d?cision en avenir certain. Le r?le du maillon humain reste essentiel dans la difficile synth?se de l'ensemble des informations disponibles, sorties de mod?les incluses, et dans la perp?tuelle remise ? jour des pr?visions. La communication aux d?cideurs des incertitudes de ces projections est ?galement d'une grande utilit? et le pr?visionniste est, l? encore, incontournable. Mais l'auto?valuation, par l'humain, de sa propre marge d'erreur dresse des obstacles sur la route de l'?laboration d'une id?ale pr?vision probabiliste. Peut-on pallier certains de ces probl?mes par la fourniture automatique, au pr?visionniste, d'une pr?vision hydrom?t?orologique d'ensemble ? Est-il suffisant de faire varier les donn?es d'entr?e des mod?les ou bien doit-on consid?rer aussi le mod?le lui-m?me comme une source d'erreur " al?atoire " ? Dans le second cas, peut-on se contenter de traduire l'incertitude sur les param?tres du mod?le ou doit-on se pr?occuper - et de quelle mani?re ? - de la sensibilit? de la pr?vision automatique ? la structure du mod?le ?

Published
2009

47. Evolution of the GRADEX method: improvement by atmospheric circulation classification and hydrological modelling

Author

Paquet, Emmanuel, Gailhard, Jo?l, and Gar?on, R?my

Abstract

The physico-statistical approach of the flood prediction by the GRADEX method seems very effective: it?s very straightforward and makes it possible to obtain completely coherent results by a robust and very readable step. To assess the quality of the approximation carried out by this model, some improvements have been tested on two significant points, leading to the SCHADEX method. SCHADEX is based on the study of the risk of precipitation related to each type of atmospheric circulation. This typology highlights the weather configuration of stronger rainfall risk and therefore increases the probabilities of extreme rains. The runoffs resulting from these precipitations, depending on highly variable hydrological conditions, are estimated by the MORDOR hydrological model. The results show a fast increasing of the rainfall efficiency going from common to rare floods. But this increase is smoother than with the initial GRADEX approach, which moderates the impact of heavier extreme rainfall.

Published
2006

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