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We present a new method for the numerical solution of advection-reaction-diffusion equations. The method is lagrangian for the advection-reaction part, and uses an auxiliary eulerian grid for the diffusive operator. We discuss the application of the method to the modelling of planktonic populations.

Il contributo esamina Il ruolo svolto dall’OCSE e dall’Unione Europea nello sviluppo di possibili modelli di tassazione dell'econima digitale, distinguendo tre fasi. La prima è stata definita come fase della “neutralità”, poiché l’economia digitale è stata considerata alla stregua dell’economia tradizionale e, pertanto, l’approccio fiscale nei suoi confronti doveva essere neutrale, cioè non diverso da quello che ha storicamente caratterizzato l’economia tradizionale a livello internazionale. La seconda è stata definita come fase del “contrasto” poiché, muovendo dalla consapevolezza che l’applicazione degli strumenti della digitalizzazione all’economia tradizionale aveva consentito alle imprese, soprattutto alle multinazionali attive nel settore digitale, delle forme di arbitraggio fiscale, sono state elaborate misure volte a contrastare siffatti fenomeni. La terza fase – tuttora in corso – è stata definita come quella in cui al contrasto è stato abbinato l’“adattamento”, perché è sopraggiunta la convinzione che l’economia digitale abbia sue peculiarità che la rendono diversa da quella tradizionale. Dunque, l’obiettivo non è stato solo quello di contrastare manovre di riduzione del carico fiscale da parte delle imprese che operano nel (o attraverso il) web, ma anche quello di adattare la fiscalità al contesto digitale cercando di risolvere i problemi connessi all’individuazione della porzione di valore tassabile (“cosa” tassare) e alla ripartizione della sovranità fiscale fra gli Stati (“dove” tassare).

Tropical deforestation is well known to have serious negative consequences for biodiversity, terrestrial carbon sinks and the balance of atmospheric greenhouse gases. By contrast, selective logging of tropical forests is often regarded as having a lesser impact on the ecosystem particularly in long terms, even though there have been few critical evaluations of the practice, particularly in Africa. We compared field data from 511 plots in the tropical forest of Sierra Leone, Ghana, Cameroon and Gabon. These plots were subject to different forest management practices: no recent logging (primary forests), selective logging (up to 30years old) and re-grown secondary forests post clear-cutting (at least 20years ago). Our findings suggest that the vertical structure and plant richness of the selectively logged and secondary forests change in different amplitude from those of primary forests, but stem density and the prevalence of vine and weed species differ greatly. We show that the effects of selective logging are greater than those expected simply from the removal of commercial species, and can persist for decades. Selective logging, unless it is practiced at very low harvest intensities, can significantly reduce the biomass of a tropical forest for many decades, seriously diminishing aboveground carbon storage capacity, and create opportunities for weeds and vines to spread and slow down the ecological succession.

Coral reefs of the Persian/Arabian Gulf were the last to succumb to the effects of the global-scale mass coral bleaching event that began in 2015. This study examines the causes and consequences of the 2017 bleaching event on eight reefs located across > 350 km of the southern basin of the Gulf. Using a combination of 5 yr (2013–2017) of reef-based temperature observations, local meteorological data and water column modeling, we show that 2017 was characterized by an extended period of mid-summer calm when winds rarely exceeded breeze conditions, reducing evaporative heat loss and inducing dramatic warming compared with non-bleaching years (2013–2016). Reef-bottom temperatures in the Gulf in 2017 were among the hottest on record, with mean daily maxima averaging 35.9 ± 0.1 °C across sites, with hourly temperatures reaching as high as 37.7 °C. Across the southern Gulf, corals spent nearly 2 months (mean 55.1 ± 3.9 d above bleaching temperatures and nearly 2 weeks above lethal temperatures (11.8 ± 2.4 d), substantially longer than in the non-bleaching years (2013–2016) and equating with 5.5 °C-weeks of thermal stress as degree heating weeks. As a result, 94.3% of corals bleached, and two-thirds of corals were lost to mortality between April and September 2017. Mortality continued after peak bleaching, and by April 2018 coral cover averaged just 7.5% across the southern basin, representing an overall loss of nearly three-quarters of coral (73%) in 1 yr. This mass mortality did not cause dramatic shifts in community composition as earlier bleaching events had removed most sensitive taxa. An exception was the already rare Acropora which were locally extirpated in summer 2017. Given the increasing frequency of mass bleaching in the Gulf and the above global rates of regional warming, the capacity for recovery and the prognosis for the future of Gulf reefs are not optimistic.

In a previous work we developed a mathematical model to explain the co‐occurrence of evergreen and deciduous oak groups in the Mediterranean region, regarded as one of the distinctive features of Mediterranean biodiversity. The mathematical analysis showed that a stabilizing mechanism resulting from niche difference (i.e. different water use and water stress tolerance) between groups allows their coexistence at intermediate values of suitable soil water content. A simple formal derivation of the model expresses this hypothesis in a testable form linked uniquely to the actual evapotranspiration of forests community. In the present work we ascertain whether this simplified conclusion possesses some degree of explanatory power by comparing available data on oaks distributions and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (MODIS product) in a large‐scale survey embracing the western Mediterranean area. Our findings confirmed the basic assumptions of model addressed on large scale, but also revealed asymmetric responses to water use and water stress tolerance between evergreen and deciduous oaks that should be taken into account to increase the understating of species interactions and, ultimately, improve the modeling capacity to explain co‐occurrence.

The quantitative description of marine systems is constrained by a major issue of scale separation: phytoplankton production processes occur at sub-centimeter scales, while the contribution to the Earth's biogeochemical cycles is expressed at much larger scales, up to the planetary one. In spite of vastly improved computing power and observational capabilities, the modeling approach has remained anchored to an old view that sees the microscales as unable to substantially affect larger ones. The lack of a widespread theoretical appreciation of the interactions between vastly different scales has led to the proliferation of numerical models with uncertain predictive capabilities. In this paper, we use the phenology of phytoplankton blooms as one example of a macroscopic ecosystem feature affected by microscale interactions. We describe two distinct mechanisms that produce patchiness within a productive water column: turbulent entrainment of less-productive water at the base of the mixed layer, and stirring by slow turbulence of a vertical phytoplankton gradient sustained by depth–dependent light availability. In current eddy–diffusive models, patchiness produced in this way is wiped out very rapidly, because the time scales of irreversible mixing largely overlap those of mechanical stirring. We propose a novel Lagrangian modeling framework that allows for the existence of microscale patchiness, even when that is not fully resolved. We show, with a mixture of theoretical arguments and numerical simulations of increasing realism, how the presence of patchiness, in turn, affects larger-scale properties, demonstrating that the timing of phytoplankton blooms and vertical variability of chlorophyll in the oceanic upper layers is determined by the mutual interplay between the stirring, mixing and growing processes.

Corals in the Persian/Arabian Gulf are the most thermally tolerant in the world, but live very near the thresholds of their thermal tolerance. Warming sea temperatures associated with climate change have resulted in numerous coral bleaching events regionally since the mid-1990s, but it has been unclear why unusually warm sea temperatures occur some years but not others. Using a combination of 5 years of observed sea-bottom temperatures at three reef sites and a meteorologically linked hydrodynamic model that extends through the past decade, we show that summer sea-bottom temperatures are tightly linked to regional wind regimes, and that strong ‘shamal’ wind events control the occurrence and severity of bleaching. Sea bottom temperatures were primarily controlled by latent heat flux from wind-driven surface evaporation which exceeded 300 W m-2 during shamal winds, double that of typical breeze conditions. Daily temperature change was highly correlated with wind speed, with breeze winds (5 weeks, while the cooler intervening years (2013–2016) had summers with more frequent and/or strong shamal events which repeatedly cooled temperatures below bleaching thresholds for days to weeks, providing corals temporary respite from thermal stress. Using observed data from 2012 onward and simulated data from 2008 to 2011, we show that the severity of bleaching events over the past decade was linked to both the number of cumulative days above bleaching thresholds (rather than total days, which obfuscates the cooling effects of occasional brief shamal events), as well as to maxima. We show that winds of 4 m s-1 represents a critical threshold for whether or not corals cross bleaching threshold temperatures, and provide simulations to forecast sea-bottom temperature change and recovery times under a range of wind conditions. The role that wind-driven cooling may play on coral reefs globally is discussed.

We consider the model introduced in Paparella and von Hardenberg (2014), that consists in the homogeneous boundary value problem for a system of nonlinear degenerate parabolic equations. We prove the existence of global weak solutions and discuss their stability and asymptotic properties.

Kolmogorov’s 1941 theory describes a turbulent flow as one featuring a cascade of characteristic scales and obeying the law of finite dissipation. Most flows having the first property also have the second. But this is by no means a necessary implication. Horizontal convection is a type of buoyancy driven flow that does not obey to the law of finite dissipation (thus is not turbulent in the sense of Kolmogorov) but appears to have most other properties of a turbulent flow. This, and a number of other connected results, have profound implications on the viability of horizontal convection as a convincing metaphor for the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation: thermal (or thermohaline) forcing alone cannot reproduce most of the essential features of the observed ocean circulation. Recent research shows that only by taking into account the buoyancy forcing and several sources of mechanical mixing in a rotating reference frame a satisfactory depiction of the ocean circulation arises.

The Asian chestnut gall wasp Dryocosmus kuriphilus , native of China, has become a pest when it appeared in Japan, Korea, and the United States. In Europe it was first found in Italy, in 2002. In 1982 the host-specific parasitoid Torymus sinensis was introduced in Japan, in an attempt to achieve a biological control of the pest. After an apparent initial success, the two species seem to have locked in predator–prey cycles of decadal length. We have developed a spatially explicit mathematical model that describes the seasonal time evolution of the adult insect populations, and the competition for finding egg deposition sites. In a spatially homogeneous situation the model reduces to an iterated map for the egg density of the two species. While, for realistic parameters, the map would support the hypothesis of biological control, the full model, in the same parameter range, does not give such a clear-cut answer. In particular, according to the spatially explicit model, the introduction of T. sinensis would spark a traveling wave of the parasitoid population that destroys the pest on its passage. Then, depending on the value of the diffusion coefficients of the two species, the pest may later be able to re-colonize the empty area left behind the wave. When this occurs the two populations do not seem to attain a state of spatial homogeneity, but produce an ever-changing pattern of traveling waves.