Search

In this work, we present a new earthquake catalogue for metropolitan France (i.e. the part of France located in Europe), which can be used to derive parameters of interest for seismic hazard modeling in that region. The catalogue is built from the amalgamation of existing catalogues for France but also neighboring countries, for both historical (here, ante-1965) and instrumental times. It covers a period ranging from 250 to 2020. Magnitudes are homogenized as moment magnitudes (Mw) using adequate conversion laws when needed. Uncertainties on location and magnitude are also provided so they can be used to realistically quantify epistemic uncertainties in hazard models. This catalogue somehow represents an updated version of the catalogue used in Drouet et al. (2020), augmented from recently published information. It extends from -8.1°E to 11.°E in longitude and from 38°N to 51°N in order to encompass the three area source models that were used in that study. The core of this catalogue is FCAT-17 (Manchuel et al., 2018), completed using the most recent ESHM2020 catalogue, FCAT-17 being given priority on the French territory plus a 20 km buffer beyond its borders and exclusive economic zone. Then, national catalogues for neighboring countries (Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy) are also incorporated and are given full priority over their territory. The final model contains more than 45,000 events with magnitudes as low as Mw=2.0. Such low magnitudes were considered in order to provide as much constraint as possible to recurrence models, despite the fact low magnitude events are -per se- of little interest for seismic hazard models.

In this article, we apply the reference-rock identification method (RRIM; Lanzano et al., 2020) to the ITalian ACcelerometric Archive, which includes more than 1600 recording stations in Italy and in the neighboring countries, with different levels of site characterization. The RRIM is based on the identification and the evaluation of site parameters representing the reference site conditions (Steidl et al., 1996) and the construction of the scoring scheme to classify the candidate stations. Given the large number of sites, the preselection of candidates is performed via residual analysis, selecting those characterized by flat site response and amplitude similar or lower than the one for the generic rock (average shear-wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m, VS30=800 m/s). The main results of this study are: (1) a list of reference rock sites in Italy, with an associated score; (2) a scenario-independent generic-to-reference rock corrective factor for the ground-motion model for shallow active crustal events in Italy (ITA18; Lanzano, Luzi, et al., 2019); (3) a model for the generic-to-reference rock corrective factor, parametrized in terms of VS30 and κ0, that is, the high-frequency decay parameter (Anderson and Hough, 1984). A collateral product is a set of coefficients for the prediction of 81 ordinates of the Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) in the frequency interval 0.1–30 Hz, calibrated with the same dataset and functional form of ITA18 for acceleration response spectra (SA). The application of RRIM allowed us to identify 116 stations with average measured VS30∼900 m/s. The corrective factor allows to scale both SA and FAS spectra, and has a significant effect at high frequencies, reducing the ground motion by up to a factor 1.7 at f = 10 Hz. The introduction of κ0 in the corrective term modeling is effective from 2 Hz onward and results in a reduction of variability at high frequencies (f > 10 Hz).

We used an ergodic ground-motion model (GMM) of California of Bayless and Abrahamson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 109(5):2088–2105, 2019) as a backbone model and incorporated the varying-coefficient model (VCM), with a modification for anisotropic path effects, to develop a new non-ergodic GMM for France based on the French RESIF data set (1996-2016). Most of the earthquakes in this database have small-to-moderate magnitudes (M2.0 – M5.2). We developed the GMM for the smoothed effective amplitude spectrum (EAS) rather than for elastic spectral acceleration because it allows the use of small magnitude data to constrain linear effects of the path and site without the complication of the scaling being affected by differences in the response spectral shape. For the VCM, the coefficients of GMM can vary by geographical location and they are estimated using Gaussian-process regression. There is a separate set of coefficients for each source and site coordinate, including both the mean coefficients and the epistemic uncertainty in the coefficients. We further modify the anelastic attenuation term of a GMM by the cell-specific approach of Kuehn et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 109 (2): 575–585, 2019) to allow for azimuth-dependent attenuation for each source which reduces the standard deviation of the residuals at long distances. As an example, we compute the 5Hz seismic hazard for two sites using the non-ergodic EAS GMM. At the 1 10-4 annual frequency of exceedance hazard level, there can be a large difference between the ergodic hazard and the non-ergodic hazard if the site is close to the available data. The combination of the non-ergodic median ground motion and the reduced aleatory variability can have large implications for seismic-hazard estimation for long return periods. For some sites, the estimated hazard will increase and for other sites the estimated hazard will decrease compared to the traditional ergodic GMM approach. Due to the skewed distribution of the epistemic uncertainty of the hazard, more of the sites will see a decrease in the mean hazard mean hazard at the 1 10-4 hazard level than will see an increase as a result of using the non-ergodic GMM.

In this paper, a comprehensive validation exercise of 3D physics-based numerical simulations (PBS) of seismic wave propagation is presented for a low-to-moderate seismicity area in the south east of France, within the Rhône River Valley, that hosts several operating nuclear installations. This area was hit on Nov 11, 2019, by an unusually damaging Mw 4.9 earthquake (Le Teil event). The numerical code SPEED (http://speed.mox.polimi.it/), developed at Politecnico di Milano, Italy, was used to validate the simulations against the available recordings. When comparing simulations with records, a good to excellent agreement was found up to 8–10 Hz, showing that, even without a very detailed 3D numerical model of the medium, the PBS may provide realistic broadband predictions of earthquake ground motion. This also demonstrates that PBS, if suitably calibrated and validated, may be either an alternative or a useful complement to empirical ground motion models. Referring to the seismic risk evaluation of strategic and critical structures, infrastructures and industrial plants, such as nuclear power plants, the failure of which during an earthquake may endanger safety of population and cause environmental disasters, the 3D PBS may throw light on region- and site-specific features of ground shaking, especially in near-source conditions, that are typically poorly constrained in empirical models.

Seismic hazard studies provide indicators of seismic motion that are expressed for “free-field,” that is, representative of the ground motion exactly at the free surface, without disturbances due to interactions between soil and buildings or other structures. Most of these studies are based on ground-motion prediction equations, which are, themselves, formulated to predict free-field motion, as they are derived from similarly free data. However, is this really the case?In this study, we use several examples to illustrate how small structures hosting permanent strong-motion stations (often anchored on small concrete slabs) generate soil–structure interaction effects that can amplify the high-frequency part of the earthquake signal (>10 Hz) by up to a factor of 2–3 for stations on soils. We also show that the installation depth of a station, even if very shallow (i.e., a few meters), can change the recorded response, mainly by deamplifying the signal in high frequencies (>10 Hz) by a factor up to 0.3. Such effects imply that there are actual differences between recorded and true free-field signals. Depending on the housing conditions, these effects can have significant impact on response spectra at high frequencies, and on measurements of the κ parameter.It is, thus, becoming clear that such effects should be taken into account in studies involving high-frequency seismic motion. To do so, scientists need a detailed description of the conditions of installation and housing of seismological and accelerometric stations, which often lacks from the metadata distributed through the various, commonly used web services. Increasing such information and facilitating the access to it would allow the identification of stations that are problematic and of those that are truly close to free-field recording conditions. In a subsequent step, it would be important to quantify the modification curve of the response of stations that experience such effects.

This work presents the implementation of a high standards dataset of earthquake ground motions recorded in Metropolitan France between 1996 and 2016. This dataset is intended to serve the scopes of a large seismological community; however, its primary aims are engineering seismology and earthquake engineering applications. The dataset includes records from broadband and accelerometric sensors provided by permanent and temporary seismic networks operated by French research institutions and partners grouped within the Réseau Sismologique et géodésique Français (RESIF) consortium (see Data and Resources). All the waveforms are first homogenized to acceleration units and underwent a full quality control process including: (1) visual verification and manual phase picking, (2) processing scheme, and (3) consistency check by residual analysis. These make the dataset fully compliant with international standards. Finally, the RESIF dataset includes more than 6500 quality-checked records from 468 earthquakes recorded at 379 stations. Over the 379 stations included in the dataset, 177 are permanent stations (RA and FR networks) and 202 are temporary stations (YP and X7 networks). The dataset is complete down to magnitude ML 3.5 over the whole French territory and less (about ML 2.5) in the eastern part. Magnitudes range from ML 2.4 to 5.6 and from Mw 2.0 to 5.2, whereas distances range from less than 1 to 600 km. The disseminated dataset is constituted of (1) a versioned flatfile containing the metadata and main intensity measures computed on each processed record, (2) time histories, and (3) response spectra for several damping values and Fourier spectra.

Generalized inversion techniques (GITs) have become popular for determining seismological parameters (e.g., source, attenuation, and site response), particularly in low-to-moderate seismicity regions. Indeed, GITs can potentially provide reliable site-response estimates when a minimum number of recordings is available, as well as valuable information about source parameters and regional attenuation characteristics. Significant advances have been made on GITs in which different approaches and hypotheses were investigated, such as the application of “nonparametric” and “parametric” inversion schemes. In this context, several scientific questions have arisen that depend on the final scope of the GITs: What is the optimal inversion strategy for a given dataset configuration? What is the impact of the different choices, assumptions, and implementations on the reliability of the results? Is it possible to quantify the associated epistemic uncertainties? Here, we have considered and compared the different approaches of GITs to improve the understanding of each for use in different applications. A methodological benchmark that includes different GIT methods and dataset configurations is set up to fulfill the objective, using a simple synthetic dataset, a French regional sparse dataset, and an Italian national dense dataset. The benchmark is developed in two phases: (1) phase I: a free phase with no common constraints; and (2) phase II: a constrained phase with unified reference conditions. Despite unifying the reference conditions in the different inversions, the variability was not reduced. Discrepancies are observed between different terms of GITs. Site responses appear to be the most robust estimates, compared to source and attenuation terms. The way that stress drops of earthquakes and quality factors for crustal attenuation are parameterized appears to lead to significant variability between different approaches. Finally, uncertainties are addressed by quantification of the inter-method variability for the different terms and parameters.

In this study, we use an ergodic ground motion model (GMM) of California of Bayless and Abrahamson (2019) as a backbone and incorporate the varying-coefficient model (VCM) to develop a new French non-ergodic GMM based on the French RESIF data set (1996-2016). Most of the magnitudes of this database are small (Mw = 2.0 – 5.2), so we adopt the Fourier amplitude spectral GMM rather than the spectral acceleration model, which allows the use of small magnitude data to constrain path and site effects without the complication of the scaling being affected by differences in the response spectral shape. For the VCM, the coefficients of GMPE can vary by geographical location and they are estimated using Gaussian process regression. That is, there is a separate set of coefficients for each source and site coordinate, including both the mean coefficients and the epistemic uncertainty in the coefficients. Moreover, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the predicted ground motions also varies spatially: it is small in locations where there are many events or stations and it is large in sparse data regions. Finally, we modify the anelastic attenuation term of a GMM by the cell-specific approach of Kuehn et al. (2019) to allow for azimuth-dependent attenuation for each source which reduces the standard deviation of residuals at long distances. The results show that combining the above two methods (VCM & cell-specific) to lead an aleatory standard deviation of residuals for the GMM that is reduced by ~ 47%, which can have huge implications for seismic-hazard calculations.

SUMMARYTo evaluate the site response using both empirical approaches (e.g. standard spectral ratio, ground motion models (GMMs), generalized inversion techniques, etc.) and numerical 1-D/2-D analyses, the definition of the reference motion, that is the ground motion recorded at stations unaffected by site-effects due to topographic, stratigraphic or basin effects, is needed. The main objective of this work is to define a robust strategy to identify the seismic stations that can be considered as reference rock sites, using six proxies for the site response: three proxies are related to the analysis of geophysical and seismological data (the repeatable site term from the residual analysis, the resonance frequencies from horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios on noise or earthquake signals, the average shear wave velocity in the first 30 m); the remaining ones concern geomorphological and installation features (outcropping rocks or stiff soils, flat topography and absence of interaction with structures). We introduce a weighting scheme to take into account the availability and the quality of the site information, as well as the fulfillment of the criterion associated to each proxy. We also introduce a hierarchical index, to take into account the relevance of the proposed proxies in the description of the site effects, and an acceptance threshold for reference rock sites identification. The procedure is applied on a very large data set, composed by accelerometric and velocimetric waveforms, recorded in Central Italy in the period 2008–2018. This data set is composed by more than 30 000 waveforms relative to 450 earthquakes in the magnitude range 3.2–6.5 and recorded by more than 450 stations. A total of 36 out of 133 candidate stations are identified as reference sites: the majority of them are installed on rock with flat topography, but this condition is not sufficient to guarantee the absence of amplifications, especially at high frequencies. Seismological analyses are necessary to exclude stations affected by resonances. We test the impact of using these sites by calibrating a GMMs. The results show that for reference rock sites the median predictions are reduced down to about 45 per cent at short periods in comparison to the generic rock motions.

In the framework of the SIGMA project, a study was launched to develop a parametric earthquake catalog for the historical period, covering the metropolitan territory and calibrated in Mw. A set of candidate calibration events was selected corresponding to earthquakes felt over a part of the French metropolitan territory, which are fairly well documented both in terms of macroseismic intensity distributions (SisFrance BRGM-EDF-IRSN) and magnitude estimates. The detailed analysis of the macroseismic data led us to retain only 30 events out of 65 with Mw ranging from 3.6 to 5.8. In order to supplement the dataset with data from larger magnitude events, Italian earthquakes were also considered (11 events posterior to 1900 with Mw ≥ 6.0 out of 15 in total), using both the DBMI11 macroseismic database (Locati et al. in Seismol Resour Lett 85(3):727–734, 2014) and the parametric information from the CPTI11 (Rovida et al. in CPTI11, la versione 2011 del Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica et Vulcanologia, Milano, Bologna, 2011. https://doi.org/10.6092/ingv.it-cpti11 ). To avoid introducing bias related to the differences in terms of intensity scales (MSK vs. MCS), only intensities smaller than or equal to VII were considered (Traversa et al. in On the use of cross-border macroseismic data to improve the estimation of past earthquakes seismological parameters, 2014). Mw and depth metadata were defined according to the Si-Hex catalogue (Cara et al. in Bull Soc Geol Fr 186:3–19, 2015. https://doi.org/10.2113/qssqfbull.186.1.3 ), published information, and to the specific worked conducted within SIGMA related to early instrumental recordings (Benjumea et al. in Study of instrumented earthquakes that occurred during the first part of the 20th century (1905–1962), 2015). For the depth estimates, we also performed a macroseismic analysis to evaluate the range of plausible estimates and check the consistency of the solutions. Uncertainties on the metadata related to the calibration earthquakes were evaluated using the range of available alternative estimates. The intensity attenuation models were developed using a one-step maximum likelihood scheme. Several mathematical formulations and sub-datasets were considered to evaluate the robustness of the results (similarly to Baumont and Scotti in Accounting for data and modeling uncertainties in empirical macroseismic predictive equations (EMPEs). Towards “European” EMPEs based on SISFRANCE, DBMI, ECOS macroseismic database, 2008). In particular, as the region of interest may be characterized by significant laterally varying attenuation properties (Bakun and Scotti in Geophys J Int 164:596–610, 2006; Gasperini in Bull Seismol Soc Am 91:826–841, 2001), we introduced regional attenuation terms to account for this variability. Two zonation schemes were tested, one at the national scale (France/Italy), another at the regional scale based on the studies of Mayor et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0124-8 ) for France and Gasperini (2001) for Italy. Between and within event residuals were analyzed in detail to identify the best models, that is, the ones associated with the best misfit and most limited residual trends with intensity and distance. This analysis led us to select four sets of models for which no significant trend in the between- and within-event residuals is detected. These models are considered to be valid over a wide range of Mw covering ~ 3.5–7.0.

In regions that undergo low deformation rates, as is the case for metropolitan France (i.e. the part of France in Europe), the use of historical seismicity, in addition to instrumental data, is necessary when dealing with seismic hazard assessment. This paper presents the strategy adopted to develop a parametric earthquake catalogue using moment magnitude Mw, as the reference magnitude scale to cover both instrumental and historical periods for metropolitan France. Work performed within the framework of the SiHex (SIsmicite de l’HEXagone) (Cara et al. Bull Soc Geol Fr 186:3–19, 2015. doi: 10.2113/qssqfbull.186.1.3 ) and SIGMA (SeIsmic Ground Motion Assessment; EDF-CEA-AREVA-ENEL) projects, respectively on instrumental and historical earthquakes, have been combined to produce the French seismic CATalogue, version 2017 (FCAT-17). The SiHex catalogue is composed of ~40,000 natural earthquakes, for which the hypocentral location and Mw magnitude are given. In the frame of the SIGMA research program, an integrated study has been realized on historical seismicity from intensity prediction equations (IPE) calibration in Mw detailed in Baumont et al. (submitted) companion paper to their application to earthquakes of the SISFRANCE macroseismic database (BRGM, EDF, IRSN), through a dedicated strategy developed by Traversa et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10518-017-0178-7 ) companion paper, to compute their Mw magnitude and depth. Macroseismic data and epicentral location and intensity used both in IPE calibration and inversion process, are those of SISFRANCE without any revision. The inversion process allows the main macroseismic field specificities reported by SISFRANCE to be taken into account with an exploration tree approach. It also allows capturing the epistemic uncertainties associated with macroseismic data and to IPEs selection. For events that exhibit a poorly constrained macroseismic field (mainly old, cross border or off-shore earthquakes), joint inversion of Mw and depth is not possible, and depth needs to be fixed to calculate Mw. Regional a priori depths have been defined for this purpose based on analysis of earthquakes with a well constrained macroseismic field where joint inversion of Mw and depth is possible. As a result, 27% of SISFRANCE earthquake seismological parameters have been jointly inverted and for the other 73% Mw has been calculated assuming a priori depths. The FCAT-17 catalogue is composed of the SIGMA historical parametric catalogue (magnitude range between 3.5 up to 7.0), covering from AD463 to 1965, and of the SiHex instrumental one, extending from 1965 to 2009. Historical part of the catalogue results from an automatic inversion of SISFRANCE data. A quality index is estimated for each historical earthquake according to the way the events are processed. All magnitudes are given in Mw which makes this catalogue directly usable as an input for probabilistic or deterministic seismic hazard studies. Uncertainties on magnitudes and depths are provided for historical earthquakes following calculation scheme presented in Traversa et al. (2017). Uncertainties on magnitudes for instrumental events are from Cara et al. (J Seismol 21:551–565, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10950-016-9617-1 ).

The estimation of the seismological parameters of historical earthquakes is a key step when performing seismic hazard assessment in moderate seismicity regions as France. We propose an original method to assess magnitude and depth of historical earthquakes using intensity data points. A flowchart based on an exploration tree (ET) approach allows to apply a consistent methodology to all the different configurations of the earthquake macroseismic field and to explore the inherent uncertainties. The method is applied to French test case historical earthquakes, using the SisFrance (BRGM, IRSN, EDF) macroseismic database and the intensity prediction equations (IPEs) calibrated in the companion paper (Baumont et al. Bull Earthq Eng, 2017). A weighted least square scheme allowing for the joint inversion of magnitude and depth is applied to earthquakes that exhibit a decay of intensity with distance. Two cases are distinguished: (1) a “Complete ET” is applied to earthquakes located within the metropolitan territory, while (2) a “Simplified ET” is applied to both, offshore and cross border events, lacking information at short distances but disposing of reliable data at large ones. Finally, a priori-depth-based magnitude computation is applied to ancient or poorly documented events, only described by single/sporadic intensity data or few macroseismic testimonies. Specific processing of “felt” testimonies allows exploiting this complementary information for poorly described earthquakes. Uncertainties associated to magnitude and depth estimates result from both, full propagation of uncertainties related to the original macroseismic information and the epistemic uncertainty related to the IPEs selection procedure.

Site-specific seismic hazard studies involving detailed account of the site response require the prior estimate of the hazard at the local reference bedrock level. As the real characteristics of such local bedrock often correspond to “hard-rock” with S-wave velocity exceeding 1.5 km/s, “standard rock” PSHA estimates should be adjusted in order to replace the effects of “standard-rock” characteristics by those corresponding to the local bedrock. The current practice involves the computation of scaling factors determined on the basis of VS (S-wave velocity) and “κ0” (site specific, high-frequency attenuation parameter) values, and generally predicts larger high-frequency motion on hard rock compared to standard rock. However, it also proves to be affected by large uncertainties (Biro and Renault, Proceedings of the 15th world conference on earthquake engineering, 24–28, 2012; Al Atik et al., Bull Seism Soc Am 104(1):336–346 2014), mainly attributed to (i) the measurement of host and target parameters, and (ii) the forward and inverse conversions from the response spectrum domain to the Fourier domain to apply the VS and κ0 adjustments. Moreover, recent studies (Ktenidou and Abrahamson, Seismol Res Lett 87(6):1465–1478, 2016) question the appropriateness of current VS − κ0 scaling factors, so that the significant amplification of high frequency content for hard-rock with respect to standard-rock seems overestimated. This paper discusses the key aspects of a few, recently proposed, alternatives to the standard approach. The calibration of GMPEs directly in the Fourier domain rather than in the response spectrum domain is one possibility (Bora et al., Bull Seism Soc Am 105(4):2192–2218, 2015, Bull Earthq Eng 15(11):4531–4561, 2017). Another possibility is the derivation of GMPEs which be valid also for hard-rock conditions (e.g. Laurendeau et al., Bull Earthq Eng 16(6):2253–2284, 2018). In this latter case the host site response is first removed using theoretical site response analyses (and site velocity profile), or generalized inversions techniques. A third possibility is to use existing hard rock surface recordings to derive purely empirical scaling models from standard rock to hard rock (Ktenidou et al., PEER Report, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Berkeley, 2016). Finally, when a sufficient amount of records are available at a given site, generic GMPEs can be scaled to the site-specific ground motion using empirical site residual (δS2Ss) (Kotha et al., Earthq Spectra 33(4):1433–1453, 2017; Ktenidou et al., Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 16(6):2311–2336, 2018). Such alternative approaches present the advantage of a significant simplification with respect to the current practice (with thus a reduced number of uncertainty sources); their generalization calls however for high-quality recordings (including high-quality site metadata) for both host regions and target sites, especially for small to moderate magnitude events. Our answer to the question in the title is thus “No, alternative approaches exist and are promising; though, their routine implementation requires additional work regarding systematic site characterization (for the host regions) and high-quality site characterization/instrumentation (for the target site), and so do also the needed improvements of the existing HTTA procedure”., Pure and Applied Geophysics, 177 (5), ISSN:0033-4553, ISSN:1420-9136, ISSN:1557-7368

In this work, we map the absorption properties of the French crust by analyzing the decay properties of coda waves. Estimation of the coda quality factor $$Q_{c}$$ in five non-overlapping frequency-bands between 1 and 32 Hz is performed for more than 12,000 high-quality seismograms from about 1700 weak to moderate crustal earthquakes recorded between 1995 and 2013. Based on sensitivity analysis, $$Q_{c}$$ is subsequently approximated as an integral of the intrinsic shear wave quality factor $$Q_{i}$$ along the ray connecting the source to the station. After discretization of the medium on a 2-D Cartesian grid, this yields a linear inverse problem for the spatial distribution of $$Q_{i}$$ . The solution is approximated by redistributing $$Q_{c}$$ in the pixels connecting the source to the station and averaging over all paths. This simple procedure allows to obtain frequency-dependent maps of apparent absorption that show lateral variations of $$50\%$$ at length scales ranging from 50 km to 150 km, in all the frequency bands analyzed. At low frequency, the small-scale geological features of the crust are clearly delineated: the Meso-Cenozoic basins (Aquitaine, Brabant, Southeast) appear as strong absorption regions, while crystalline massifs (Armorican, Central Massif, Alps) appear as low absorption zones. At high frequency, the correlation between the surface geological features and the absorption map disappears, except for the deepest Meso-Cenozoic basins which exhibit a strong absorption signature. Based on the tomographic results, we explore the implications of lateral variations of absorption for the analysis of both instrumental and historical seismicity. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) current local magnitude $$M_{L}$$ can be over(resp. under)-estimated when absorption is weaker(resp. stronger) than the nominal value assumed in the amplitude-distance relation; (2) both the forward prediction of the earthquake macroseismic intensity field and the estimation of historical earthquake seismological parameters using macroseismic intensity data are significantly improved by taking into account a realistic 2-D distribution of absorption. In the future, both $$M_{L}$$ estimations and macroseismic intensity attenuation models should benefit from high-resolution models of frequency-dependent absorption such as the one produced in this study.

Seismic signal windowing is the preliminary step for many analysis procedures in engineering seismology (standard spectral ratio, quality factor, general inversion techniques, etc.). Moreover a noise window is often necessary for the data quality control through the signal-to-noise verification. Selecting the noise window can be challenging when large heterogeneous datasets are considered, especially when they include short pre-event noise signals. This study proposes a fully automatic and configurable (i.e., with default parameters that can also be user-defined) algorithm to windowing the noise and the P, S, coda and full signal once the P-wave (T P ) and S-wave (T S ) first arrivals are known. An application example is given on a KiK-net dataset. A Matlab language implementation of this algorithm is proposed as an online resource.

In low-to-moderate seismicity regions such as metropolitan France, characterized by limited strong-motion records in the magnitude-distance range of interest for seismic hazard assessment, the derivation of empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) is a major challenge. In this study, we take advantage of the RESORCE-2013 database ( http://resorce-portal.eu/ ) that contains uniformly processed records for the Pan-European region including relevant number of French records. After discussing the metadata for French events and stations, we first derive a base-case GMPE that is used to investigate the within-event and between-event residuals. The short-period between-event residuals for French (and Swiss) events show larger variability with respect to larger magnitude events in other regions. We show that the between-event residuals are clearly correlated with the stress parameter and that such larger variability can be explained by accounting for stress-parameter scaling. We derive an empirical scaling of ground motion with stress parameter that is consistent across regions and with the scaling predicted by stochastic GMPEs. This suggests that the scaling of ground motion with stress parameter for a given magnitude is largely region independent whereas the absolute stress parameter values may vary regionally. Based on these results we propose to adopt the scaling model as a function of stress parameter and magnitude by Yenier and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 105(4):1989–2009, 2015) by adapting the reference stress parameter to our target regions. By accounting for stress parameter scaling in the GMPE we reduce the between-event variability for French and Swiss small-magnitude events. Finally, we investigate the aleatory variability (σ) of the GMPE and its components (τ, ϕ, ϕss). We propose a heteroscedastic σ model to be used when the stress-parameter scaling is not considered in the GMPEs due to lack of information. If enough information on the stress-parameter is available the adjusted GMPE can be applied using a homoscedastic σ. Despite using small events, the ϕss for French stations is found to be consistent with other studies and confirms the stability of ϕss across different regions and datasets.

International audience; he two main earthquakes that occurred in 2012 (May 20 and 29) in the Reggio-Emiliano region (Northern Italy) were relatively small (Mw 6.1 and Mw 5.9) but they generated unexpected damages in a large area around the epicenter. On some stations, the observed seismic levels exceeded design levels recommended by the EC8 seismic code for buildings and civil engineering works. The ground motions generated by the two mainshocks have specific characteristics: the waveforms are mainly controlled by surface waves generated by the deep sedimentary Po plain, by local site effects and also, on some stations, by non-linear behaviors. In this particular context, we test the ability of an empirical Green’s function (EGF) simulation approach to reproduce the recorded seismograms in a large frequency band without any knowledge of the underground medium. We focus on the possibility to reproduce the strong surface waves generated by the basin at distances between 25 and 90 km. We choose to work on the second mainshock of the sequence (Mw 5.9), which occurred on May 29, 2012, because it is better recorded by the seismological networks than the May 20th first mainshock. We use a k-2 kinematic source model to generate a set of 100 slip distributions on the fault plane and choose the recordings of a close-by Mw 3.9 event as EGF. We then generate a set of broad-band seismograms (from 0.2 to 35 Hz) and compare them to the mainshock signals at 15 stations (Seismograms, Fourier spectra, PGA, PGV, duration, Stockwell Transforms) at epicentral distances from 5 to 160 km. We find that the main specific features of the signals are very well reproduced for all the stations within and beyond the basin. Nevertheless, at nearby stations, the PGA values are over-evaluated, which could be explained by the fact that non- linear effects are not taken into account in the simulation process. A better fit was found for a position of the nucleation point to the bottom west of the fault, that suggest a directivity effect of the rupture process of the May 29th event towards the North–East.

International audience; We study the physical causes of the magnitude dependence of ground‐motion decay with distance that is observed on real data. Using stochastic simulations, we analyze the role played by anelastic attenuation Q (f), path duration, site effect (κ0), finite‐fault effect, and stress drop for a magnitude range between 4 and 7. We systematically look at peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and pseudoabsolute spectral acceleration at different frequencies.We find that path duration, κ0, and stress‐drop variations have a minor effect on this dependence. At close distances (typically distances smaller than the largest fault length), the main effect is the finite‐fault effect that tends to decrease the ground‐motion values of larger events. At larger distances (>30 km), it is the effect of Q (f) that is preponderant and tends to lower the ground‐motion values of smaller events.

International audience; We analyze the temporal patterns of volcano seismicity using the statistics of waiting times between subsequent earthquakes. We compare waiting time distributions of seismicity at Mt. Etna and Mt. Vesuvius volcanoes during (1) inter-eruption phases and (2) dyke propagations, with those of tectonic seismicity using the southern California catalog. For inter-eruption phases, no matter their duration, statistics of inter-event times are well approximated by the gamma distribution. This allows us to compute the proportion of background uncorrelated events (Molchan, 2005; Hainzl et al., 2006), which is recovered in the range 20%-40% for Vesuvius, three Etna inter-eruptive periods, and the southern California catalog. It argues for roughly 70% of earthquake activity to be cascades of aftershocks for both volcano inter-eruptive and tectonic seismicity. On the contrary, statistics of inter-event times recorded during both the 2001 and 2002 intrusive episodes at the Etna volcano reject the gamma distribution to describe the observations. These seismic crises are characterized by an average seismicity rate about 2 orders of magnitude larger than that of inter-eruptive periods. It suggests that the origin of the specificity of waiting time patterns during dyke injections is driven by the external forcing rate. Using the epydemic type aftershock sequences model simulations we explore the effect of seismicity rate increases on inter-event time distributions. Departures from the gamma law progressively emerges from both (1) an increase of the background seismicity rate and (2) a screening effect. It prevents us from quantifying the portion of uncorrelated seismicity within the considered catalog and from clearly quantifying the forcing rate that characterizes the volcano dynamics during dyke intrusions.

International audience; Contemporary to nine dyke intrusions on Piton de la Fournaise, Etna, and Miyakejima volcanoes, we recover stationary seismicity rate and energy release over time, whether the dyke reaches the surface or not. This generic seismicity pattern for the dyke propagation of low viscosity magma argues for the fluid driven crack propagation to be a scale independent stationary process. This prevents any prediction of the time to eruption during the dyke propagation phase using seismicity rate alone. The seismic signature of the volcano deformation triggered by dyke injections corresponds to brittle creep damage in a strain driven setting. Whether mechanical properties of host rock structure or geometrical effects influence this generic stationary response is not resolved by the seismic data. Because a few, if any, aftershocks are resolved contemporary to dyke intrusion, the seismicity is purely driven by the dyke dynamics, that is, a proxy for the dyke volumetric growth.

International audience; This article presents comparisons among the five ground-motion models described in other articles within this special issue, in terms of data selection criteria, characteristics of the models and predicted peak ground and response spectral accelerations. Comparisons are also made with predictions from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models to which the models presented here have similarities (e.g. a common master database has been used) but also differences (e.g. some models in this issue are nonparametric). As a result of the differing data selection criteria and derivation techniques the predicted median ground motions show considerable differences (up to a factor of two for certain scenarios), particularly for magnitudes and distances close to or beyond the range of the available observations. The predicted influence of style-of-faulting shows much variation among models whereas site amplification factors are more similar, with peak amplification at around 1s. These differences are greater than those among predictions from the NGA models. The models for aleatory variability (sigma), however, are similar and suggest that ground-motion variability from this region is slightly higher than that predicted by the NGA models, based primarily on data from California and Taiwan.

This paper presents the overall procedure followed in order to assemble the most recent pan-European strong-motion databank: Reference Database for Seismic Ground-Motion in Europe (RESORCE). RESORCE is one of the products of the SeIsmic Ground Motion Assessment (SIGMA; projet-sigma.com) project. RESORCE is intended to be a single integrated accelerometric databank for Europe and surrounding areas for use in the development and testing of ground-motion models and for other engineering seismology and earthquake engineering applications. RESORCE aims to contribute to the improvement of earthquake risk studies in Europe and surrounding areas. RESORCE principally updates and extends the previous pan-European strong-motion databank (Ambraseys et al. in Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata 45:113-129, 2004a) with recently compiled Greek, Italian, Swiss and Turkish accelerometric archives. The updates also include earthquake-specific studies published in recent years. The current content of RESORCE includes 5,882 multi-component and uniformly processed accelerograms from 1,814 events and 1,540 strong-motion stations. The moment magnitude range covered by RESORCE is . The source-to-site distance interval extends to 587 km and distance information is given by the common point- and extended-source distance measures. The paper presents the current features of RESORCE through simple statistics that also quantify the differences in metadata and strong-motion processing with respect to the previous version of the pan-European strong-motion databank.

Most seismic eruption forerunners are described using Volcano-Tectonic earthquakes, seismic energy release, deformation rates or seismic noise analyses. Using the seismic data recorded at Ubinas volcano (Peru) between 2006 and 2008, we explore the time evolution of the Long Period (LP) seismicity rate prior to 143 explosions. We resolve an average acceleration of the LP rate above the background level during the 2-3 hours preceding the explosion onset. Such an average pattern, which emerges when stacking over LP time series, is robust and stable over all the 2006-2008 period, for which data is available. This accelerating pattern is also recovered when conditioning the LP rate on the occurrence of an other LP event, rather than on the explosion time. It supports a common mechanism for the generation of explosions and LP events, the magma conduit pressure increase being the most probable candidate. The average LP rate acceleration toward an explosion is highly significant prior to the higher energy explosions, supposedly the ones associated with the larger pressure increases. The dramatic decay of the LP activity following explosions, still reinforce the strong relationship between these two processes. We test and we quantify the retrospective forecasting power of these LP rate patterns to predict Ubinas explosions. The prediction quality of the forecasts (e.g. for 17% of alarm time, we predict 63% of Ubinas explosions, with 58% of false alarms) is evaluated using error diagrams. The prediction results are stable and the prediction algorithm validated, i.e. its performance is better than the random guess.

13p.; International audience; We study changes in effective stress (normal stress minus pore pressure) that occurred in the French Alps during the 2003-2004 Ubaye earthquake swarm. Two complementary data sets are used. First, a set of 974 relocated events allows us to finely characterize the shape of the seismogenic area and the spatial migration of seismicity during the crisis. Relocations are performed by a double-difference algorithm. We compute differences in travel times at stations both from absolute picking times and from cross-correlation delays of multiplets. The resulting catalog reveals a swarm alignment along a single planar structure striking N130°E and dipping 80°W. This relocated activity displays migration properties consistent with a triggering by a diffusive fluid overpressure front. This observation argues in favor of a deep-seated fluid circulation responsible for a significant part of the seismic activity in Ubaye. Second, we analyze time series of earthquake detections at a single seismological station located just above the swarm. This time series forms a dense chronicle of +16,000 events. We use it to estimate the history of effective stress changes during this sequence. For this purpose we model the rate of events by a stochastic epidemic-type aftershock sequence model with a nonstationary background seismic rate λ0(t). This background rate is estimated in discrete time windows. Window lengths are determined optimally according to a new change-point method on the basis of the interevent times distribution. We propose that background events are triggered directly by a transient fluid circulation at depth. Then, using rate-and-state constitutive friction laws, we estimate changes in effective stress for the observed rate of background events. We assume that changes in effective stress occurred under constant shear stressing rate conditions. We finally obtain a maximum change in effective stress close to −8 MPa, which corresponds to a maximum fluid overpressure of about 8 MPa under constant normal stress conditions. This estimate is in good agreement with values obtained from numerical modeling of fluid flow at depth, or with direct measurements reported from fluid injection experiments.

International audience; Most observations of seismicity rate during dike propagation on basaltic volcanoes show (1) rate stationarity despite possible variations of the dike tip velocity, (2) frequent lack of clear and monotonic hypocenter migration following dike propagation, and (3) event occurrences located backward with respect to the dike tip position. On these bases, the origin of the seismicity contemporary to dike intrusion within basaltic volcanoes cannot be solely related to the crack tip propagation. Seismicity rather appears to be the response of the edifice itself to the volumetric deformation induced by the magma intruding the solid matrix. The volume change induced into the volcano edifice over time by the intruding magma is equal to the magma flux injected into the dike from the reservoir. The consequence of this is that the stationary seismicity rate observed during the intrusion is a proxy for the magma flux withdrawn from the reservoir. We consider a two-phase dike propagation model, including a first vertical propagation followed by a lateral migration along a lithological discontinuity. We explore (1) under which geophysical conditions the vertical dike is fed at constant flow rate of magma and (2) dike propagation patterns. Implications entailed by constant volumetric flux on the Piton de la Fournaise volcano case study suggest a minimum size for the magma reservoir of about 1 km(3) and a maximum value for the initial magma reservoir overpressure of about 2.2 MPa. Considering similar magma inflow rates during vertical and lateral dike propagation phases, we reproduce independent estimates of propagation velocities, rise times, and injected volumes when applying the model to the August 2003 Piton de la Fournaise eruption.

The dynamics of a "peeling front" or an elastic line is studied under creep (constant load) conditions. Our experiments show an exponential dependence of the creep velocity on the inverse force (mass) applied. In particular, the dynamical correlations of the avalanche activity are discussed here. We compare various avalanche statistics to those of a line depinning model with non-local elasticity, and study various measures of the experimental avalanche-avalanche and temporal correlations such as the autocorrelation function of the released energy and aftershock activity. From all these we conclude, that internal avalanche dynamics seems to follow "line depinning" -like behavior, in rough agreement with the depinning model. Meanwhile, the correlations reveal subtle complications not implied by depinning theory. Moreover, we also show how these results can be understood from a geophysical point of view., Comment: 22 pages, 14 figs