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Byline: C. E. Hanson (1), J. P. Palutikof (2), M. T. J. Livermore (1), L. Barring (3), M. Bindi (4), J. Corte-Real (5), R. Durao (5), C. Giannakopoulos (6), P. Good (6), T. Holt (1), Z. Kundzewicz (7,8), G. C. Leckebusch (9), M. Moriondo (4), M. Radziejewski (7,10), J. Santos (11,12), P. Schlyter (13), M. Schwarb (14), I. Stjernquist (13), U. Ulbrich (9) Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the aims, objectives, research activities undertaken, and a selection of results generated in the European Commission-funded project entitled 'Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes' (MICE) -- a pan-European end-to-end assessment, from climate model to impact model, of the potential impacts of climate change on a range of economic sectors important to the region. MICE focussed on changes in temperature, precipitation and wind extremes. The research programme had three main themes -- the evaluation of climate model performance, an assessment of the potential future changes in the occurrence of extremes, and an examination of the impacts of changes in extremes on six activity sectors using a blend of quantitative modelling and expert judgement techniques. MICE culminated in a large stakeholder-orientated workshop, the aim of which was not only to disseminate project results but also to develop new stakeholder networks, whose expertise can be drawn on in future projects such as ENSEMBLES. MICE is part of a cluster of three projects, all related to European climate change and its impacts. The other projects in the cluster are PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects) and STARDEX (Statistical and Regional Dynamical Downscaling of Extremes for European Regions). Author Affiliation: (1) Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK (2) Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK (3) Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Geobiosphere Science Centre, Lund University, Solvegatan 12, 223 62, Lund, Sweden (4) Department of Agronomy and Land Management, University of Florence, Piazale delle Cascine 18, 50144, Florence, Italy (5) Instituto de Cienca Aplicada e Tecnologia, Faculdade de Ciencas, Universidade Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal (6) National Observatory of Athens, Institute of Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, 15236, P. Penteli, Athens, Greece (7) Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60809, Poznan, Poland (8) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, 14412, Potsdam, Germany (9) Institute for Meteorology, Freie Universitat Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, 12165, Berlin, Germany (10) Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Adam Mickiewicz University, Umultowska 87, 61-614, Poznan, Poland (11) Departamento de Fisica, Centro de Geofisica, Colegio Luis Antonio Verney, Universidade de Evora, R. Romao Ramalho 59, 7000, Evora, Portugal (12) Departamento de Fisica, Universidade de Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Quinta dos Prados, Apartado 1013, 5000-911, Vila Real, Portugal (13) Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden (14) Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Hallerstr. 12, 3012, Bern, Switzerland Article History: Registration Date: 05/12/2006 Received Date: 15/02/2005 Accepted Date: 17/10/2006 Online Date: 23/03/2007

Formal structures for evaluating climate change risk are important components of adaptation decision-making. In this paper, we present an accessible, cost-effective and user-tested climate change risk assessment framework which allows organisations to systematically apply a risk management process aligned with international standards to identify and manage their climate change risks. It is delivered through 'CoastAdapt', a resource supporting climate change adaptation in Australia. This three-tier framework offers four benefits to the adaptation process. First, it allows organisations to identify climate change risks and integrate them with their mainstream risk management process. Second, it makes optimal use of an organisation's limited adaptation resources by taking a tiered approach, so allowing an organisation to start from a low knowledge base using minimal resources and, only if required, then move to more complex and resource-intensive risk assessment processes. Third, it introduces a time-dependent vulnerability rating which recognises the particular characteristics of climate change risks—that they are long term and associated with a considerable degree of uncertainty. Finally, it takes into account business inter-dependencies that can exacerbate impacts but be overlooked in a sector-based impacts evaluation. In this paper, we highlight the appropriate context in which to use each risk assessment tier, explore key technical differences among the three tiers, describe performance testing and present one case study of application. We discuss the benefits of this tiered risk assessment approach in the context of broader adaptation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simple method is tested for scaling climate-extreme results from high resolution regional climate models (RCMs) to time-periods and emission scenarios for which the RCMs have not been run. The 30 yr mean relationships between indicators of extremes (loEs) and annual mean daily maximum temperature (Txa) are investigated. Such relationships from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre RCM HadRM3P, along with temperatures from the global climate model HadCM3, are used to scale loEs to other time periods and scenarios. This is tested for selected indicators of heat-wave and drought over Europe for the period 1961-2099. Curvature is demonstrated in the relationships between these quantities and Txa. Such non-linearities are shown to have a large potential effect on how these climate extremes are likely to evolve during the century, as well as their sensitivity to emissions. A broad picture of possible changes in European heat-wave and drought severity is presented. For drought over the Mediterranean and western Europe, a very clear positive curvature in the relationship between drought length and annually averaged temperature is found. (This feature is also common in a brief study of 6 other RCMs.) It suggests a rapid increase in drought length towards the end of the century, and a strong sensitivity to the emission scenario. Extended summer dry spells are projected to become a much more regular feature of western European climates. For European heat-waves, we find a slightly earlier Onset of increases in heat-wave severity and a reduced sensitivity to emission scenarios than might be expected from a more straightforward interpretation of the Hadley Centre model results. This is linked with extreme dryness occurring at high summer in all years by the end of the century, but was not evident in the 6 other RCMs studied. Based on these results, suggestions are made for choices of future RCM experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]