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In computational physics it is standard to approximate continuum systems with discretised representations. Here we consider a specific discretisation of the continuum complex Hilbert space of quantum mechanics - a discretisation where squared amplitudes and complex phases are rational numbers. The fineness of this discretisation is determined by a finite (prime-number) parameter $p$. As $p \rightarrow \infty$, unlike standard discretised representations in computational physics, this model does not tend smoothly to the continuum limit. Instead, the state space of quantum mechanics is a singular limit of the discretised model at $p=\infty$. Using number theoretic properties of trigonometric functions, it is shown that for large enough values of $p$, discretised Hilbert space accurately describes ensemble representations of quantum systems within an inherently superdeterministic framework, one where the Statistical Independence assumption in Bell's theorem is formally violated. In this sense, the discretised model can explain the violation of Bell inequalities without appealing to nonlocality or indefinite reality. It is shown that this discretised framework is not fine tuned (and hence not conspiratorial) with respect to its natural state-space $p$-adic metric. As described by Michael Berry, old theories of physics are typically the singular limits of new theories as a parameter of the new theory is set equal to zero or infinity. Using this, we can answer the challenge posed by Scott Aaronson, critic of superderminism: to explain when a great theory in physics (here quantum mechanics) has ever been `grudgingly accommodated' rather than `gloriously explained' by its candidate successor theory (here a superdeterministic theory of quantum physics based on discretised Hilbert space).

This paper draws on a number of Roger Penrose's ideas - including the non-Hamiltonian phase-space flow of the Hawking Box, Conformal Cyclic Cosmology, non-computability and gravitationally induced quantum state reduction - in order to propose a radically unconventional approach to quantum gravity: Invariant Set Theory (IST). In IST, the fundamental laws of physics describe the geometry of the phase portrait of the universe as a whole: "quantum" process are associated with fine-scale fractal geometry, "gravitational" process with larger-scale heterogeneous geometry. With this, it becomes possible to explain the experimental violation of Bell Inequalities without having to abandon key ingredients of general relativity: determinism and local causality. Ensembles in IST can be described by complex Hilbert states over a finite set $\mathbb C_p$ of complex numbers, where $p$ is a large finite integer. The quantum mechanics of finite-dimensional Hilbert spaces is emergent as a singular limit when $p \rightarrow \infty$. A small modification to the field equations of general relativity is proposed to make it consistent with IST., Comment: To appear in Special Edition of AVS Quantum Science, celebrating Roger Penrose's 90th Birthday

In a recent paper (arXiv:2107.04761), Sen critiques a superdeterministic model of quantum physics, Invariant Set Theory, proposed by one of the authors. He concludes that superdeterminism is `unlikely to solve the puzzle posed by the Bell correlations'. He also claims that the model is neither local nor $\psi$-epistemic. We here detail multiple inaccuracies with Sen's arguments - notably that the hidden-variable model of quantum physics he uses to critique Invariant Set Theory bares no relation to Invariant Set Theory - and use this opportunity to lay out the properties of Invariant Set Theory as clearly as possible., Comment: 6 pages, no figures. Substantial edits to address published version of Sen's paper

It is proposed that both human creativity and human consciousness are (unintended) consequences of the human brain's extraordinary energy efficiency. The topics of creativity and consciousness are treated separately, though have a common sub-structure. It is argued that creativity arises from a synergy between two cognitive modes of the human brain (which broadly coincide with Kahneman's Systems 1 and 2). In the first, available energy is spread across a relatively large network of neurons. As such, the amount of energy per active neuron is so small that the operation of such neurons is susceptible to thermal (ultimately quantum decoherent) noise. In the second, available energy is focussed on a small enough subset of neurons to guarantee a deterministic operation. An illustration of how this synergy can lead to creativity with implications for computing in silicon are discussed. Starting with a discussion of the concept of free will, the notion of consciousness is defined in terms of an awareness of what are perceived to be nearby counterfactual worlds in state space. It is argued that such awareness arises from an interplay between our memories on the one hand, and quantum physical mechanisms (where, unlike in classical physics, nearby counterfactual worlds play an indispensable dynamical role) in the ion channels of neural networks. As with the brain's susceptibility to noise, it is argued that in situations where quantum physics plays a role in the brain, it does so for reasons of energy efficiency. As an illustration of this definition of consciousness, a novel proposal is outlined as to why quantum entanglement appears so counter-intuitive., Comment: Based on invited talk at Models of Consciousness Conference, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, September 2019

Quantum mechanics has irked physicists ever since its conception more than 100 years ago. While some of the misgivings, such as it being unintuitive, are merely aesthetic, quantum mechanics has one serious shortcoming: it lacks a physical description of the measurement process. This "measurement problem" indicates that quantum mechanics is at least an incomplete theory -- good as far as it goes, but missing a piece -- or, more radically, is in need of complete overhaul. Here we describe an approach which may provide this sought-for completion or replacement: Superdeterminism. A superdeterministic theory is one which violates the assumption of Statistical Independence (that distributions of hidden variables are independent of measurement settings). Intuition suggests that Statistical Independence is an essential ingredient of any theory of science (never mind physics), and for this reason Superdeterminism is typically discarded swiftly in any discussion of quantum foundations. The purpose of this paper is to explain why the existing objections to Superdeterminism are based on experience with classical physics and linear systems, but that this experience misleads us. Superdeterminism is a promising approach not only to solve the measurement problem, but also to understand the apparent nonlocality of quantum physics. Most importantly, we will discuss how it may be possible to test this hypothesis in an (almost) model independent way., Comment: 23 pages, 2 figures, typos fixed, references added

Stochastic schemes, designed to represent unresolved sub-grid scale variability, are frequently used in short and medium-range weather forecasts, where they are found to improve several aspects of the model. In recent years, the impact of stochastic physics has also been found to be beneficial for the model's long term climate. In this paper, we demonstrate for the first time that the inclusion of a stochastic physics scheme can notably affect a model's projection of global warming, as well as its historical climatological global temperature. Specifically, we find that when including the 'stochastically perturbed parametrisation tendencies' scheme (SPPT) in the fully coupled climate model EC-Earth v3.1, the predicted level of global warming between 1850 and 2100 is reduced by 10% under an RCP8.5 forcing scenario. We link this reduction in climate sensitivity to a change in the cloud feedbacks with SPPT. In particular, the scheme appears to reduce the positive low cloud cover feedback, and increase the negative cloud optical feedback. A key role is played by a robust, rapid increase in cloud liquid water with SPPT, which we speculate is due to the scheme's non-linear interaction with condensation., Comment: Under review in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

Bell's Theorem requires any theory which obeys the technical definitions of Free Choice and Local Causality to satisfy the Bell inequality. Invariant set theory is a finite theory of quantum physics which violates the Bell inequality exactly as does quantum theory: in it neither Free Choice nor Local Causality hold, consistent with Bell's Theorem. However, within the proposed theory, the mathematical expressions of both Free Choice and Local Causality involve states which, for number-theoretic reasons, cannot be ontic (cannot lie on the theory's fractal-like invariant set $I_U$ in state space). Weaker versions of Free Choice and Local Causality are proposed involving only the theory's ontic states. Conventional hidden-variable theories satisfying only these weaker definitions still obey the Bell inequality. However, invariant set theory, which violates the Bell inequality, satisfies these weaker definitions. It is argued that the weaker definitions are consistent with the physical meaning behind free choice and local causality as defined in space-time, and hence that Free Choice and Local Causality are physically too strong. It is concluded that the experimental violation of the Bell inequality may have less to do with free choice or local causality \emph{per se}, and more to do with the presence of a holistic but causal state-space geometry onto which quantum ontic states are constrained.

An arbitrarily dense discretisation of the Bloch sphere of complex Hilbert states is constructed, where points correspond to bit strings of fixed finite length. Number-theoretic properties of trigonometric functions (not part of the quantum-theoretic canon) are used to show that this constructive discretised representation incorporates many of the defining characteristics of quantum systems: completementarity, uncertainty relationships and (with a simple Cartesian product of discretised spheres) entanglement. Unlike Meyer's earlier discretisation of the Bloch Sphere, there are no orthonormal triples, hence the Kocken-Specker theorem is not nullified. A physical interpretation of points on the discretised Bloch sphere is given in terms of ensembles of trajectories on a dynamically invariant fractal set in state space, where states of physical reality correspond to points on the invariant set. This deterministic construction provides a new way to understand the violation of the Bell inequality without violating statistical independence or factorisation, where these conditions are defined solely from states on the invariant set. In this finite representation there is an upper limit to the number of qubits that can be entangled, a property with potential experimental consequences., Comment: Proceedings of the Royal Society A. To appear

A finite non-classical framework for physical theory is described which challenges the conclusion that the Bell Inequality has been shown to have been violated experimentally, even approximately. This framework postulates the universe as a deterministic locally causal system evolving on a measure-zero fractal-like geometry $I_U$ in cosmological state space. Consistent with the assumed primacy of $I_U$, and $p$-adic number theory, a non-Euclidean (and hence non-classical) metric $g_p$ is defined on cosmological state space, where $p$ is a large but finite Pythagorean prime. Using number-theoretic properties of spherical triangles, the inequalities violated experimentally are shown to be $g_p$-distant from the CHSH inequality, whose violation would rule out local realism. This result fails in the singular limit $p=\infty$, at which $g_p$ is Euclidean. Broader implications are discussed., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1709.00329

The synthesis of quantum and gravitational physics is sought through a finite, realistic, locally causal theory where gravity plays a vital role not only during decoherent measurement but also during non-decoherent unitary evolution. Invariant set theory is built on geometric properties of a compact fractal-like subset $I_U$ of cosmological state space on which the universe is assumed to evolve and from which the laws of physics are assumed to derive. Consistent with the primacy of $I_U$, a non-Euclidean (and hence non-classical) state-space metric $g_p$ is defined, related to the $p$-adic metric of number theory where $p$ is a large but finite Pythagorean prime. Uncertain states on $I_U$ are described using complex Hilbert states, but only if their squared amplitudes are rational and corresponding complex phase angles are rational multiples of $2 \pi$. Such Hilbert states are necessarily $g_p$-distant from states with either irrational squared amplitudes or irrational phase angles. The gappy fractal nature of $I_U$ accounts for quantum complementarity and is characterised numerically by a generic number-theoretic incommensurateness between rational angles and rational cosines of angles. The Bell inequality, whose violation would be inconsistent with local realism, is shown to be $g_p$-distant from all forms of the inequality that are violated in any finite-precision experiment. The delayed-choice paradox is resolved through the computational irreducibility of $I_U$. The Schr\"odinger and Dirac equations describe evolution on $I_U$ in the singular limit at $p=\infty$. By contrast, an extension of the Einstein field equations on $I_U$ is proposed which reduces smoothly to general relativity as $p \rightarrow \infty$. Novel proposals for the dark universe and the elimination of classical space-time singularities are given and experimental implications outlined.

Although the notion of superdeterminism can, in principle, account for the violation of the Bell inequalities, this potential explanation has been roundly rejected by the quantum foundations community. The arguments for rejection, one of the most substantive coming from Bell himself, are critically reviewed. In particular, analysis of Bell's argument reveals an implicit unwarranted assumption: that the Euclidean metric is the appropriate yardstick for measuring distances in state space. Bell's argument is largely negated if this yardstick is instead based on the alternative $p$-adic metric. Such a metric, common in number theory, arises naturally when describing chaotic systems which evolve precisely on self-similar invariant sets in their state space. A locally-causal realistic model of quantum entanglement is developed, based on the premise that the laws of physics ultimately derive from an invariant-set geometry in the state space of a deterministic quasi-cyclic mono-universe. Based on this, the notion of a complex Hilbert vector is reinterpreted in terms of an uncertain selection from a finite sample space of states, leading to a novel form of `consistent histories' based on number-theoretic properties of the transcendental cosine function. This leads to novel realistic interpretations of position/momentum non-commutativity, EPR, the Bell Theorem and the Tsirelson bound. In this inherently holistic theory - neither conspiratorial, retrocausal, fine tuned nor nonlocal - superdeterminism is not invoked by fiat but is emergent from these `consistent histories' number-theoretic constraints. Invariant set theory provides new perspectives on many of the contemporary problems at the interface of quantum and gravitational physics, and, if correct, may signal the end of particle physics beyond the Standard Model., Comment: 40 pages, 6 Figures

Invariant Set Theory (IST) is a realistic, locally causal theory of fundamental physics which assumes a much stronger synergy between cosmology and quantum physics than exists in contemporary theory. In IST the (quasi-cyclic) universe $U$ is treated as a deterministic dynamical system evolving precisely on a measure-zero fractal invariant subset $I_U$ of its state space. In this approach, the geometry of $I_U$, and not a set of differential evolution equations in space-time $\mathcal M_U$, provides the most primitive description of the laws of physics. As such, IST is non-classical. The geometry of $I_U$ is based on Cantor sets of space-time trajectories in state space, homeomorphic to the algebraic set of $p$-adic integers, for large but finite $p$. In IST, the non-commutativity of position and momentum observables arises from number theory - in particular the non-commensurateness of $\phi$ and $\cos \phi$. The complex Hilbert Space and the relativistic Dirac Equation respectively are shown to describe $I_U$, and evolution on $I_U$, in the singular limit of IST at $p=\infty$; particle properties such as de Broglie relationships arise from the helical geometry of trajectories on $I_U$ in the neighbourhood of $\mathcal M_U$. With the p-adic metric as a fundamental measure of distance on $I_U$, certain key perturbations which seem conspiratorially small relative to the more traditional Euclidean metric, take points away from $I_U$ and are therefore unphysically large. This allows (the $\psi$-epistemic) IST to evade the Bell and Pusey et al theorems without fine tuning or other objections. In IST, the problem of quantum gravity becomes one of combining the pseudo-Riemannian metric of $\mathcal M_U$ with the p-adic metric of $I_U$. A generalisation of the field equations of general relativity which can achieve this is proposed., Comment: Phys Rev D In Review. supercedes arXiv:1502.06968

We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendency (SPPT) scheme - which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error. Whilst there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, our results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made., Comment: 24 pages, 3 figures

A locally causal hidden-variable theory of quantum physics need not be constrained by the Bell inequalities if this theory also partially violates the measurement independence condition. However, such violation can appear unphysical, implying implausible conspiratorial correlations between the hidden-variables of particles being measured and earlier determinants of instrumental settings. A novel physically plausible explanation for such correlations is proposed, based on the hypothesis that states of physical reality lie precisely on a non-computational measure-zero dynamically invariant set in the state space of the universe: the Cosmological Invariant Set Postulate. To illustrate the relevance of the concept of a global invariant set, a simple analogy is considered where a massive object is propelled into a black hole depending on the decay of a radioactive atom. It is claimed that a locally causal hidden-variable theory constrained by the Cosmological Invariant Set Postulate can violate the CHSH inequality without being conspiratorial, superdeterministic, fine-tuned or retrocausal, and the theory readily accommodates the classical compatibilist notion of (experimenter) free will., Comment: To appear in Special Issue "New Geometric Concepts in the Foundations of Quantum Physics" of Phil Trans Roy Soc A

Elements of a novel theory of quantum physics are developed, synthesising the role of symbolism in describing quantum measurement and in the topological representation of fractal invariant sets in nonlinear dynamical systems theory. In this synthesis, the universe $U$ is treated as an isolated deterministic dynamical system evolving precisely on a measure-zero fractal invariant subset $I_U$ of its state space. A non-classical approach to the physics of $U$ is developed by treating the geometry of $I_U$ as more primitive than dynamical evolution equations on $I_U$. A specific symbolic representation of $I_U$ is constructed which encodes quaternionic multiplication and from which the statistical properties of complex Hilbert Space vectors are emergent. The Hilbert Space itself arises as the singular limit of Invariant Set Theory as a fractal parameter $N \rightarrow \infty$. Although the Hilbert Space of quantum theory is counterfactually complete, the measure-zero set $I_U$ is counterfactually incomplete, no matter how large is $N$. Such incompleteness allows reinterpretations of familiar quantum phenomena, consistent with realism and local causality. The non-computable nature of $I_U$ ensures that these reinterpretations are neither conspiratorial nor retrocausal and, through a homeomorphism with the ring of $2^N$-adic integers, are robust to noise and hence not fine tuned. The non-commutativity of Hilbert Space observables emerges from the symbolic representation of $I_U$ through the generic number-theoretic incommensurateness of $\phi/\pi$ and $\cos \phi$. Invariant Set Theory implies a much stronger synergy between cosmology and quantum physics than exists in contemporary theory, suggesting a novel approach to synthesising gravitational and quantum physics and providing new perspectives on the dark universe and information loss in black holes., Comment: I am replacing this paper with a revised version (arXiv:1605.01051) that is sufficiently different to this original one that it is not a simple "replacement"

A new class of energy-efficient digital microprocessor is being developed which is susceptible to thermal noise and consequently operates in probabilistic rather than conventional deterministic mode. Hybrid computing systems which combine probabilistic and deterministic processors can provide robust and efficient tools for computational problems that hitherto would be intractable by conventional deterministic algorithm. These developments suggest a revised perspective on the consequences of ion-channel noise in slender axons, often regarded as a hindrance to neuronal computations. It is proposed that the human brain is such an energy-efficient hybrid computational system whose remarkable characteristics emerge from constructive synergies between probabilistic and deterministic modes of operation. In particular, the capacity for intuition and creative problem solving appears to arise naturally from such a hybrid system. Bearing in mind that physical thermal noise is both pure and available at no cost, our proposal has implications for attempts to emulate the energy-efficient human brain on conventional energy-intensive deterministic supercomputers.

The affordable, robust, compact (ARC) reactor conceptual design study aims to reduce the size, cost, and complexity of a combined fusion nuclear science facility (FNSF) and demonstration fusion Pilot power plant. ARC is a 200-250 MWe tokamak reactor with a major radius of 3.3 m, a minor radius of 1.1 m, and an on-axis magnetic field of 9.2 T. ARC has rare earth barium copper oxide (REBCO) superconducting toroidal field coils, which have joints to enable disassembly. This allows the vacuum vessel to be replaced quickly, mitigating first wall survivability concerns, and permits a single device to test many vacuum vessel designs and divertor materials. The design point has a plasma fusion gain of Q_p~13.6, yet is fully non-inductive, with a modest bootstrap fraction of only ~63%. Thus ARC offers a high power gain with relatively large external control of the current profile. This highly attractive combination is enabled by the ~23 T peak field on coil with newly available REBCO superconductor technology. External current drive is provided by two innovative inboard RF launchers using 25 MW of lower hybrid and 13.6 MW of ion cyclotron fast wave power. The resulting efficient current drive provides a robust, steady state core plasma far from disruptive limits. ARC uses an all-liquid blanket, consisting of low pressure, slowly flowing fluorine lithium beryllium (FLiBe) molten salt. The liquid blanket is low-risk technology and provides effective neutron moderation and shielding, excellent heat removal, and a tritium breeding ratio >= 1.1. The large temperature range over which FLiBe is liquid permits blanket operation at 900 K with single phase fluid cooling and a high-efficiency Brayton cycle, allowing for net electricity generation when operating ARC as a Pilot power plant., Comment: 35 pages, 32 figures

Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: How good are seasonal climate forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal climate forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that goodness should be assessed primarily in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts and that a 5 should be reserved for systems which are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as a world leading operational institute producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of goodness rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching 5 across all regions and variables in 30 years time.

Despite being known for his pioneering work on chaotic unpredictability, the key discovery at the core of meteorologist Ed Lorenz's work is the link between space-time calculus and state-space fractal geometry. Indeed, properties of Lorenz's fractal invariant set relate space-time calculus to deep areas of mathematics such as G\"{o}del's Incompleteness Theorem. These properties, combined with some recent developments in theoretical and observational cosmology, motivate what is referred to as the `cosmological invariant set postulate': that the universe $U$ can be considered a deterministic dynamical system evolving on a causal measure-zero fractal invariant set $I_U$ in its state space. Symbolic representations of $I_U$ are constructed explicitly based on permutation representations of quaternions. The resulting `invariant set theory' provides some new perspectives on determinism and causality in fundamental physics. For example, whilst the cosmological invariant set appears to have a rich enough structure to allow a description of quantum probability, its measure-zero character ensures it is sparse enough to prevent invariant set theory being constrained by the Bell inequality (consistent with a partial violation of the so-called measurement independence postulate). The primacy of geometry as embodied in the proposed theory extends the principles underpinning general relativity. As a result, the physical basis for contemporary programmes which apply standard field quantisation to some putative gravitational lagrangian is questioned. Consistent with Penrose's suggestion of a deterministic but non-computable theory of fundamental physics, a `gravitational theory of the quantum' is proposed based on the geometry of $I_U$, with potential observational consequences for the dark universe., Comment: This manuscript has been accepted for publication in Contemporary Physics and is based on the author's 9th Dennis Sciama Lecture, given in Oxford and Trieste

A realistic measurement-free theory for the quantum physics of multiple qubits is proposed. This theory is based on a symbolic representation of a fractal state-space geometry which is invariant under the action of deterministic and locally causal dynamics. This symbolic representation is constructed from self-similar families of quaternionic operators. Using number-theoretic properties of the cosine function, the statistical properties of the symbolic representation of the invariant set are shown to be consistent with the contextual requirements of the Kochen-Specker theorem, are not constrained by Bell inequalities, and mirror the statistics of entangled qubits. These number-theoretic properties in turn reflect the sparseness of the invariant set in state space, and relate to the metaphysical notion of counterfactual incompleteness. Using the concept of probability, the complex Hilbert Space can be considered the completion of this symbolic representation into the state space continuum. As a result, it is proposed that the complex Hilbert Space should merely be considered a computational convenience in the light of the algorithmic intractability of the invariant set geometry, and consequently the superposed state should not be considered a fundamental aspect of physical theory. The physical basis for the proposed theory is relativistic gravity; for example the symbols used to describe the invariant set themselves label gravitationally distinct cosmological space-times. This implies that the very notion of a `quantum theory of gravity' may be profoundly misguided - erroneously putting the quantum cart before the gravitational horse. Here some elements of an alternative `gravitational theory of the quantum' are proposed, based on a deterministic and locally causal theory of gravity which extends general relativity by being geometric in both space-time and state space., Comment: Minor revisions, including some shortening, to first submission

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on current-generation multi-model ensembles, are not accurate. Results from seasonal re-forecast studies suggest that climate model ensembles based on stochastic-dynamic parametrisation are beginning to outperform multi-model ensembles, and have the potential to become significantly more skilful than multi-model ensembles. The case is made for stochastic representations of model uncertainty in future-generation climate prediction models. Firstly, a guiding characteristic of the scientific method is an ability to characterise and predict uncertainty; individual climate models are not currently able to do this. Secondly, through the effects of noise-induced rectification, stochastic-dynamic parametrisation may provide a (poor man's) surrogate to high resolution. Thirdly, stochastic-dynamic parametrisations may be able to take advantage of the inherent stochasticity of electron flow through certain types of low-energy computer chips, currently under development. These arguments have particular resonance for next-generation Earth-System models, which purport to be comprehensive numerical representations of climate, and where integrations at high resolution may be unaffordable., Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures

A new law of physics is proposed, defined on the cosmological scale but with significant implications for the microscale. Motivated by nonlinear dynamical systems theory and black-hole thermodynamics, the Invariant Set Postulate proposes that cosmological states of physical reality belong to a non-computable fractal state-space geometry I, invariant under the action of some subordinate deterministic causal dynamics. An exploratory analysis is made of a possible causal realistic framework for quantum physics, based on key properties of I. For example, sparseness is used to relate generic counterfactual states to points not lying on I, thus providing a geometric basis for the essential contextuality of quantum physics and the role of the abstract Hilbert Space in quantum theory. Also, self-similarity, described in a symbolic setting, provides a possible "realistic" perspective on the essential role of complex numbers and quaternions in quantum theory. A new interpretation is given to the standard "mysteries" of quantum theory: superposition, measurement, nonlocality, emergence of classicality and so on. It is proposed that heterogeneities in the fractal geometry of I are manifestations of the phenomenon of gravity. Since quantum theory is inherently blind to the existence of such state-space geometries, the analysis here suggests that attempts to formulate unified theories of physics within a conventional quantum-theoretic framework are misguided, and that a successful quantum theory of gravity should unify the causal non-Euclidean geometry of space time with the atemporal fractal geometry of state space., Comment: Accepted for publication in Proceedings of the Royal Society A

By operating an antineutrino detector of simple design during several fuel cycles, we have observed long term changes in antineutrino flux that result from the isotopic evolution of a commercial Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Measurements made with simple antineutrino detectors of this kind offer an alternative means for verifying fissile inventories at reactors, as part of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and other reactor safeguards regimes., Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures; Submitted to Journal of Applied Physics v2: added new figure plus various clarifications and grammatical revisions

In this paper, we estimate how quickly and how precisely a reactor's operational status and thermal power can be monitored over hour to month time scales, using the antineutrino rate as measured by a cubic meter scale detector. Our results are obtained from a detector we have deployed and operated at 25 meter standoff from a reactor core. This prototype can detect a prompt reactor shutdown within five hours, and monitor relative thermal power to three percent within seven days. Monitoring of short-term power changes in this way may be useful in the context of International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Reactor Safeguards Regime, or other cooperative monitoring regimes., Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures

The mathematical notion of incompleteness (eg of rational numbers, Turing-computable functions, and arithmetic proof) does not play a key role in conventional physics. Here, a reformulation of the kinematics of quantum theory is attempted, based on an inherently granular and discontinuous state space, in which the quantum wavefunction is associated with a finite set of finite bit strings, and the unitary transformations of complex Hilbert space are reformulated as finite permutation and related operators incorporating complex and hyper-complex structure. Such a reformulation, consistent with Wheeler's `It from Bit' programme, provides the basis for a novel interpretation of the Bell theorem: that the experimental violation of the Bell inequalities reveals the inevitable incompleteness of the causal structure of physical theory. The kinematic reformulation of quantum theory so developed, provides a new perspective on the age-old dichotomy of free will versus determinism., Comment: 20 pages, no figures

A not-too-technical version of the paper: "A Granular Permutation-based Representation of Complex Numbers and Quaternions: Elements of a Realistic Quantum Theory" - Proc. Roy. Soc.A (2004) 460, 1039-1055. The phrase "meteorological butterfly effect" is introduced to illustrate, not the familiar loss of predictability in low-dimensional chaos, but the much less familiar and much more radical paradigm of the finite-time predictability horizon, associated with upscale transfer of uncertainty in certain multi-scale systems. This motivates a novel reinterpretation of unit complex numbers (and quaternions) in terms of a family of self-similar permutation operators. A realistic deterministic kinematic reformulation of the foundations of quantum theory is given using this reinterpretation of complex numbers. Using a property of the cosine function not normally encountered in physics, that it is irrational for all dyadic rational angles between 0 and pi/2, this reformulation is shown to have the emergent property of counterfactual indefiniteness and is therefore not non-locally causal., Comment: Revised version, accepted for publication in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

The elements of a deterministic quantum theory are developed, which reformulates and extends standard quantum theory. The proposed theory is `realistic' in the sense that in it, a general M-level quantum state is represented by a single real number r. Surprising as it may seem, this real number is shown to contain the same probabilistic information as the standard Hilbert-space state, plus additional information from which measurement outcome is determined. A crucial concept in achieving this is that of Borelian (number-theoretic) normality. The essential role of complex numbers in standard quantum theory is subsumed by the action of a set of self-similar permutation operators on the digits and places of the base-M expansion of a base-M Borelian-normal r; these permutation operators are shown to have complex structure and leave invariant the normality of the underlying real number. The set of real numbers generated by these permutations defines not only the Hilbert space of standard quantum theory, but also, in addition, the sample space from which quantum measurement outcomes can be objectively determined. Dynamical real-number state reduction is precisely described by deterministic number-theoretic operators that reduce the degree of normality of r; from the degree of normality one can infer the standard quantum-theoretic trace rule for measurement probability. All the foundational difficulties of standard quantum theory are described in terms of the proposed theory. It is shown that the real-number states of the proposed theory are precisely its beables., Comment: 38 pages, 1 figure. Proc.Roy.Soc.Lond. Submitted

It is shown that in two-state quantum theory, a generic quantum state can be described by a non-computable real number. In terms of this, the criterion for measurement outcome is simply and deterministically defined. This demonstration is based on a construction of the Riemann sphere whose points represent, not complex numbers, but divergent sequences with bivalent elements. Complex structure arises from self-similar properties of a set of operators which generate these sequences. In general, a rotation of (the coordinates of) the sphere maps a computable real to a non-computable real. This is interpreted physically as a mapping of a physically-measurable state to a counterfactual state. Implications for non-locality, null measurements, many worlds and so on, are discussed. The possible role of the Euler equation as the counterpart of the Schrodinger equation for real-number quantum state evolution is also outlined., Comment: 27 pages, 1 eps figure

The conventional view, that Einstein was wrong to believe that quantum physics is local and deterministic, is challenged. A parametrised model, Q, for the state vector evolution of spin 1/2 particles during measurement is developed. Q draws on recent work on so-called riddled basins in dynamical systems theory, and is local, deterministic, nonlinear and time asymmetric. Moreover the evolution of the state vector to one of two chaotic attractors (taken to represent observed spin states) is effectively uncomputable. Motivation for this model arises from Penrose's speculations about the nature and role of quantum gravity. Although the evolution of Q's state vector is uncomputable, the probability that the system will evolve to one of the two attractors is computable. These probabilities correspond quantitatively to the statistics of spin 1/2 particles. In an ensemble sense the evolution of the state vector towards an attractor can be described by a diffusive random walk. Bell's theorem and a version of the Bell-Kochen_specker quantum entanglement paradox are discussed. It is shown that proving an inconsistency with locality demands the existence of definite truth values to certain counterfactual propositions. In Q these deterministic propositions are physically uncomputable and no non-algorithmic solution is either known or suspected. Adapting the mathematical formalist approach, the non-existence of definite truth values to such counterfactual propositions is posited. No inconsistency with experiment is found. Hence Q is not necessarily constrained by Bell's inequality., Comment: This paper has been accepted for publication in the Proceedings of the Royal Society of London (Proc.Roy.Soc.A) I will mail the paper's figures on request (write to tim.palmer@ecmwf.int)