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Terrestrial exoplanets around M- and K-type stars are important targets for atmospheric characterisation. Such planets are likely tidally locked with the order of spin-orbit resonances (SORs) depending on eccentricity. We explore the impact of SORs on 3D atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, employing a 3D coupled Climate-Chemistry Model to simulate Proxima Centauri b in 1:1 and 3:2 SOR. For a 1:1 SOR, Proxima Centauri b is in the Rhines rotator circulation regime with dominant zonal gradients (global mean surface temperature 229 K). An eccentric 3:2 SOR warms Proxima Centauri b to 262 K with gradients in the meridional direction. We show how a complex interplay between stellar radiation, orbit, atmospheric circulation, and (photo)chemistry determines the 3D ozone distribution. Spatial variations in ozone column densities align with the temperature distribution and are driven by stratospheric circulation mechanisms. Proxima Centauri b in a 3:2 SOR demonstrates additional atmospheric variability, including daytime-nighttime cycles in water vapour of ${+}$55% to ${-}$34% and ozone ($\pm5.2$%) column densities and periastron-apoastron water vapour cycles of ${+}$17% to ${-}$10%. Synthetic emission spectra for the spectral range of the Large Interferometer For Exoplanets fluctuate by up to 36 ppm with orbital phase angle for a 1:1 SOR due to 3D spatial and temporal asymmetries. The homogeneous atmosphere for the 3:2 SOR results in relatively constant emission spectra and provides an observational discriminant from the 1:1 SOR. Our work emphasizes the importance of understanding the 3D nature of exoplanet atmospheres and associated spectral variations to determine habitability and interpret atmospheric spectra., Comment: 31 pages, 19 figures, revised and re-submitted to The Planetary Science Journal

Interpreting the observations of exoplanet atmospheres to constrain physical and chemical properties is typically done using Bayesian retrieval techniques. Because these methods require many model computations, a compromise is made between model complexity and run time. Reaching this compromise leads to the simplification of many physical and chemical processes (e.g. parameterised temperature structure). Here we implement and test sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE), a machine learning inference algorithm, for exoplanet atmospheric retrievals. The goal is to speed up retrievals so they can be run with more computationally expensive atmospheric models, such as those computing the temperature structure using radiative transfer. We generate 100 synthetic observations using ARCiS (ARtful Modeling Code for exoplanet Science, an atmospheric modelling code with the flexibility to compute models in varying degrees of complexity) and perform retrievals on them to test the faithfulness of the SNPE posteriors. The faithfulness quantifies whether the posteriors contain the ground truth as often as we expect. We also generate a synthetic observation of a cool brown dwarf using the self-consistent capabilities of ARCiS and run a retrieval with self-consistent models to showcase the possibilities that SNPE opens. We find that SNPE provides faithful posteriors and is therefore a reliable tool for exoplanet atmospheric retrievals. We are able to run a self-consistent retrieval of a synthetic brown dwarf spectrum using only 50,000 forward model evaluations. We find that SNPE can speed up retrievals between $\sim2\times$ and $\geq10\times$ depending on the computational load of the forward model, the dimensionality of the observation, and the signal-to-noise ratio of the observation. We make the code publicly available for the community on Github., Comment: Accepted for publication at A&A

Transmission spectroscopy supports the presence of uncharacterised, light-scattering and -absorbing aerosols in the atmospheres of many exoplanets. The complexity of factors influencing the formation, 3-D transport, radiative impact, and removal of aerosols makes it challenging to match theoretical models to the existing data. Our study simplifies these factors to focus on the interaction between planetary general circulation and haze distribution at the planetary limb. We use an intermediate complexity general circulation model, ExoPlaSim, to simulate idealised organic haze particles as radiatively active tracers in the atmospheres of tidally locked terrestrial planets for 32 rotation rates. We find three distinct 3-D spatial haze distributions, corresponding to three circulation regimes, each with a different haze profile at the limb. All regimes display significant terminator asymmetry. In our parameter space, super-Earth-sized planets with rotation periods greater than 13 days have the lowest haze optical depths at the terminator, supporting the choice of slower rotators as observing targets., Comment: 25 pages, 15 figures

Determining the habitability and interpreting future atmospheric observations of exoplanets requires understanding the atmospheric dynamics and chemistry from a 3-D perspective. Previous studies have shown significant spatial variability in the ozone layer of synchronously rotating M-dwarf planets, assuming an Earth-like initial atmospheric composition. We use a 3-D Coupled Climate-Chemistry model to understand this distribution of ozone and identify the mechanism responsible for it. We document a previously unreported connection between the ozone production regions on the photochemically active dayside hemisphere and the nightside devoid of stellar radiation and thus photochemistry. We find that stratospheric dayside-to-nightside overturning circulation can advect ozone-rich air to the nightside. On the nightside, ozone-rich air subsides at the locations of two quasi-stationary Rossby gyres, resulting in an exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere and the accumulation of ozone at the gyre locations. We identify the hemispheric contrast in radiative heating and cooling as the main driver of this ozone circulation. Dynamically-driven chemistry also impacts other tracer species in the atmosphere (gaseous and non-gaseous phase) as long as chemical lifetimes exceed dynamical lifetimes. These findings illustrate the 3-D nature of planetary atmospheres, predicting spatial and temporal variability that will impact spectroscopic observations of exoplanet atmospheres., Comment: 13 pages, 12 figures, submitted to MNRAS

Retrieval methods are a powerful analysis technique for modelling exoplanetary atmospheres by estimating the bulk physical and chemical properties that combine in a forward model to best-fit an observed spectrum, and they are increasingly being applied to observations of directly-imaged exoplanets. We have adapted TauREx3, the Bayesian retrieval suite, for the analysis of near-infrared spectrophotometry from directly-imaged gas giant exoplanets and brown dwarfs. We demonstrate TauREx3's applicability to sub-stellar atmospheres by presenting results for brown dwarf benchmark GJ 570D which are consistent with previous retrieval studies, whilst also exhibiting systematic biases associated with the presence of alkali lines. We also present results for the cool exoplanet 51 Eri b, the first application of a free chemistry retrieval analysis to this object, using spectroscopic observations from GPI and SPHERE. While our retrieval analysis is able to explain spectroscopic and photometric observations without employing cloud extinction, we conclude this may be a result of employing a flexible temperature-pressure profile which is able to mimic the presence of clouds. We present Bayesian evidence for an ammonia detection with a 2.7$\sigma$ confidence, the first indication of ammonia in an exoplanetary atmosphere. This is consistent with this molecule being present in brown dwarfs of a similar spectral type. We demonstrate the chemical similarities between 51 Eri b and GJ 570D in relation to their retrieved molecular abundances. Finally, we show that overall retrieval conclusions for 51 Eri b can vary when employing different spectral data and modelling components, such as temperature-pressure and cloud structures.

Cloud cover at the planetary limb of water-rich Earth-like planets is likely to weaken chemical signatures in transmission spectra, impeding attempts to characterize these atmospheres. However, based on observations of Earth and solar system worlds, exoplanets with atmospheres should have both short-term weather and long-term climate variability, implying that cloud cover may be less during some observing periods. We identify and describe a mechanism driving periodic clear sky events at the terminators in simulations of tidally locked Earth-like planets. A feedback between dayside cloud radiative effects, incoming stellar radiation and heating, and the dynamical state of the atmosphere, especially the zonal wavenumber-1 Rossby wave identified in past work on tidally locked planets, leads to oscillations in Rossby wave phase speeds and in the position of Rossby gyres and results in advection of clouds to or away from the planet's eastern terminator. We study this oscillation in simulations of Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST 1-e, and rapidly rotating versions of these worlds located at the extreme inner edge of their stars' habitable zones. We simulate time series of the transit depths of the 1.4 {\mu}m water feature and 2.7 {\mu}m carbon dioxide feature. The impact of atmospheric variability on the transmission spectra is sensitive to the structure of the dayside cloud cover and the location of the Rossby gyres, but none of our simulations have variability significant enough to be detectable with current methods., Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures

Stellar flares present challenges to the potential habitability of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarf stars through inducing changes in the atmospheric composition and irradiating the planet's surface in large amounts of ultraviolet light. To examine their impact, we have coupled a general circulation model with a photochemical kinetics scheme to examine the response and changes of an Earth-like atmosphere to stellar flares and coronal mass ejections. We find that stellar flares increase the amount of ozone in the atmosphere by a factor of 20 compared to a quiescent star. We find that coronal mass ejections abiotically generate significant levels of potential bio-signatures such as N$_2$O. The changes in atmospheric composition cause a moderate decrease in the amount of ultraviolet light that reaches the planets surface, suggesting that while flares are potentially harmful to life, the changes in the atmosphere due to a stellar flare act to reduce the impact of the next stellar flare., Comment: 27 pages, 21 figures, accepted to MNRAS

Determining the habitability and interpreting atmospheric spectra of exoplanets requires understanding their atmospheric physics and chemistry. We use a 3-D Coupled Climate-Chemistry Model, the Met Office Unified Model with the UK Chemistry and Aerosols framework, to study the emergence of lightning and its chemical impact on tidally-locked Earth-like exoplanets. We simulate the atmosphere of Proxima Centauri b orbiting in the Habitable Zone of its M-dwarf star, but the results apply to similar M-dwarf orbiting planets. Our chemical network includes the Chapman ozone reactions and hydrogen oxide (HO$_{\mathrm{x}}$=H+OH+HO$_2$) and nitrogen oxide (NO$_{\mathrm{x}}$=NO+NO$_2$) catalytic cycles. We find that photochemistry driven by stellar radiation (177-850 nm) supports a global ozone layer between 20-50 km. We parameterise lightning flashes as a function of cloud-top height and the resulting production of nitric oxide (NO) from the thermal decomposition of N$_2$ and O$_2$. Rapid dayside convection over and around the substellar point results in lightning flash rates of up to 0.16 flashes km$^{-2}$yr$^{-1}$, enriching the dayside atmosphere below altitudes of 20 km in NO$_{\mathrm{x}}$. Changes in dayside ozone are determined mainly by UV irradiance and the HO$_{\mathrm{x}}$ catalytic cycle. ~45% of the planetary dayside surface remains at habitable temperatures (T$_{\mathrm{surf}}$>273.15 K) and the ozone layer reduces surface UV radiation levels to 15%. Dayside-nightside thermal gradients result in strong winds that subsequently advect NO$_{\mathrm{x}}$ towards the nightside, where the absence of photochemistry allows NO$_{\mathrm{x}}$ chemistry to involve reservoir species. Our study also emphasizes the need for accurate UV stellar spectra to understand the atmospheric chemistry of exoplanets., Comment: 20 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

Exoplanet observations are currently analysed with Bayesian retrieval techniques. Due to the computational load of the models used, a compromise is needed between model complexity and computing time. Analysis of data from future facilities, will need more complex models which will increase the computational load of retrievals, prompting the search for a faster approach for interpreting exoplanet observations. Our goal is to compare machine learning retrievals of exoplanet transmission spectra with nested sampling, and understand if machine learning can be as reliable as Bayesian retrievals for a statistically significant sample of spectra while being orders of magnitude faster. We generate grids of synthetic transmission spectra and their corresponding planetary and atmospheric parameters, one using free chemistry models, and the other using equilibrium chemistry models. Each grid is subsequently rebinned to simulate both HST/WFC3 and JWST/NIRSpec observations, yielding four datasets in total. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are trained with each of the datasets. We perform retrievals on a 1,000 simulated observations for each combination of model type and instrument with nested sampling and machine learning. We also use both methods to perform retrievals on real WFC3 transmission spectra. Finally, we test how robust machine learning and nested sampling are against incorrect assumptions in our models. CNNs reach a lower coefficient of determination between predicted and true values of the parameters. Nested sampling underestimates the uncertainty in ~8% of retrievals, whereas CNNs estimate them correctly. For real WFC3 observations, nested sampling and machine learning agree within $2\sigma$ for ~86% of spectra. When doing retrievals with incorrect assumptions, nested sampling underestimates the uncertainty in ~12% to ~41% of cases, whereas this is always below ~10% for the CNN., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A

Using a three-dimensional general circulation model, we show that the atmospheric dynamics on a tidally locked Earth-like exoplanet, simulated with the planetary and orbital parameters of Proxima Centauri b, support a longitudinally asymmetric stratospheric wind oscillation (LASO), analogous to Earth's quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). In our simulations, the LASO has a vertical extent of 35--55 km, a period of 5--6.5 months, and a peak-to-peak wind speed amplitude of -70 to +130 m/s with a maximum at an altitude of 41 km. Unlike the QBO, the LASO displays longitudinal asymmetries related to the asymmetric thermal forcing of the planet and to interactions with the resulting stationary Rossby waves. The equatorial gravity wave sources driving the LASO are localised in the deep convection region at the substellar point and in a jet exit region near the western terminator, unlike the QBO, for which these sources are distributed uniformly around the planet. Longitudinally, the western terminator experiences the highest wind speeds and undergoes reversals earlier than other longitudes. The antistellar point only experiences a weak oscillation with a very brief, low-speed westward phase. The QBO on Earth is associated with fluctuations in the abundances of water vapour and trace gases such as ozone which are also likely to occur on exoplanets if these gases are present. Strong fluctuations in temperature and the abundances of atmospheric species at the terminators will need to be considered when interpreting atmospheric observations of tidally locked exoplanets., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures

We use the Met Office Unified Model to explore the potential of a tidally locked M dwarf planet, nominally Proxima Centauri b irradiated by a quiescent version of its host star, to sustain an atmospheric ozone layer. We assume a slab ocean surface layer, and an Earth-like atmosphere of nitrogen and oxygen with trace amounts of ozone and water vapour. We describe ozone chemistry using the Chapman mechanism and the hydrogen oxide (HO$_x$, describing the sum of OH and HO$_2$) catalytic cycle. We find that Proxima Centauri radiates with sufficient UV energy to initialize the Chapman mechanism. The result is a thin but stable ozone layer that peaks at 0.75 parts per million at 25 km. The quasi-stationary distribution of atmospheric ozone is determined by photolysis driven by incoming stellar radiation and by atmospheric transport. Ozone mole fractions are smallest in the lowest 15 km of the atmosphere at the sub-stellar point and largest in the nightside gyres. Above 15 km the ozone distribution is dominated by an equatorial jet stream that circumnavigates the planet. The nightside ozone distribution is dominated by two cyclonic Rossby gyres that result in localized ozone hotspots. On the dayside the atmospheric lifetime is determined by the HO$_x$ catalytic cycle and deposition to the surface, with nightside lifetimes due to chemistry much longer than timescales associated with atmospheric transport. Surface UV values peak at the substellar point with values of 0.01 W/m$^2$, shielded by the overlying atmospheric ozone layer but more importantly by water vapour clouds., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 25 pages, 17 figures

We use a simple organism lifecycle model to explore the viability of an atmospheric habitable zone (AHZ), with temperatures that could support Earth-centric life, which sits above an environment that does not support life. To illustrate our model we use a cool Y dwarf atmosphere, such as $\mathrm{WISE~J}085510.83-0714442.5$ whose $4.5-5.2$ micron spectrum shows absorption features consistent with water vapour and clouds. We allow organisms to adapt to their atmospheric environment (described by temperature, convection, and gravity) by adopting different growth strategies that maximize their chance of survival and proliferation. We assume a constant upward vertical velocity through the AHZ. We found that the organism growth strategy is most sensitive to the magnitude of the atmospheric convection. Stronger convection supports the evolution of more massive organisms. For a purely radiative environment we find that evolved organisms have a mass that is an order of magnitude smaller than terrestrial microbes, thereby defining a dynamical constraint on the dimensions of life that an AHZ can support. Based on a previously defined statistical approach we infer that there are of order $10^9$ cool Y brown dwarfs in the Milky Way, and likely a few tens of these objects are within ten parsecs from Earth. Our work also has implications for exploring life in the atmospheres of temperate gas giants. Consideration of the habitable volumes in planetary atmospheres significantly increases the volume of habitable space in the galaxy., Comment: Revised version after comments received. Re-accepted to ApJ on 20/12/2016

An optimal estimation inverse method is presented which can be used to retrieve simultaneously vertical profiles of temperature and specific humidity, in addition to surface pressure, from satellite-to-satellite radio occultation observations of the Earth's atmosphere. The method is a non-linear, maximum {\it a posteriori} technique which can accommodate most aspects of the real radio occultation problem and is found to be stable and to converge rapidly in most cases. The optimal estimation inverse method has two distinct advantages over the analytic inverse method in that it accounts for some of the effects of horizontal gradients and is able to retrieve optimally temperature and humidity simultaneously from the observations. It is also able to account for observation noise and other sources of error. Combined, these advantages ensure a realistic retrieval of atmospheric quantities. A complete error analysis emerges naturally from the optimal estimation theory, allowing a full characterisation of the solution. Using this analysis a quality control scheme is implemented which allows anomalous retrieval conditions to be recognised and removed, thus preventing gross retrieval errors. The inverse method presented in this paper has been implemented for bending angle measurements derived from GPS/MET radio occultation observations of the Earth. Preliminary results from simulated data suggest that these observations have the potential to improve NWP model analyses significantly throughout their vertical range., Comment: 18 (jgr journal) pages, 7 figures