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Background Previous simulation studies estimating the impacts of lung cancer screening have ignored the changes in smoking prevalence over time in the United States. Our primary rationale was to perform, to our knowledge, the first simulation study that estimates the health outcomes of lung cancer screening with explicit modeling of smoking trends for the whole US population. Methods/Findings Utilizing a well-validated microsimulation model, we estimated the benefits and harms of an annual low-dose computed tomography screening scenario with a realistic screening adherence rate versus a no-screening scenario for the US population from 2016-2030. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) eligibility criteria were applied: age 55-77 years at time of screening, history of at least 30 pack-years of smoking, and current smoker or former smoker with fewer than 15 years since quitting. In the screened population, cumulative mortality reduction was projected to reach 16.98% (95% CI 16.90%-17.07%). Cumulative mortality reduction was estimated to be 3.52% (95% CI 3.50%-3.53%) for the overall study population, with annual mortality reduction peaking at 4.38% (95% CI 4.36%-4.41%) in 2021 and falling to 3.53% (95% CI 3.50%-3.56%) by 2030. Lung cancer screening would save a projected 148,484 life-years (95% CI 147,429-149,540) across the total population through 2030. There were estimated to be 9,054 (95% CI 9,011-9,098) overdiagnosed cases among the 252,429 (95% CI 251,208-253,649) screen-detected lung cancer diagnoses, yielding an overdiagnosis rate of 3.59%. The limitations of our study are that we do not explicitly model race or socioeconomic status and our model was calibrated to data from studies performed in academic centers, both of which may impact the generalizability of our results. We also exclusively model the effects of the CMS guidelines for lung cancer screening and not any other screening strategies. Conclusions The mortality reduction and life-years gained estimated by this study are lower than those of single birth cohort studies. Single cohort studies neglect the changing dynamics of smoking behavior across generations, whereas this study reflects the trend of decreasing smoking prevalence since the 1960s. Maximum benefit could be derived from lung cancer screening through 2021; in later years, mortality reduction due to screening will decline. If a comprehensive screening program is not implemented in the near future, the opportunity to achieve these benefits will have passed., Author(s): Steven D. Criss 1, Deirdre F. Sheehan 1, Lauren Palazzo 1, Chung Yin Kong 1,2,* Introduction Despite more than 50 years having passed since the publication of the first [...]

Background: The end‐of‐life period is a crucial time in lung cancer care. To have a better understanding of the racial‐ethnic disparities in health care expenditures, access, and quality, we evaluated these disparities specifically in the end‐of‐life period for patients with lung cancer in the U.S. Materials and Methods: We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)‐Medicare database to analyze characteristics of lung cancer care among those diagnosed between the years 2000 and 2011. Linear and logistic regression models were constructed to measure racial‐ethnic disparities in end‐of‐life care cost and utilization among non‐Hispanic (NH) Asian, NH black, Hispanic, and NH white patients while controlling for other risk factors such as age, sex, and SEER geographic region. Results: Total costs and hospital utilization were, on average, greater among racial‐ethnic minorities compared with NH white patients in the last month of life. Among patients with NSCLC, the relative total costs were 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–1.33) for NH black patients, 1.36 (95% CI, 1.25–1.49) for NH Asian patients, and 1.21 (95% CI, 1.07–1.38) for Hispanic patients. Additionally, the odds of being admitted to a hospital for NH black, NH Asian, and Hispanic patients were 1.22 (95% CI, 1.15–1.30), 1.47 (95% CI, 1.32–1.63), and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.01–1.38) times that of NH white patients, respectively. Similar results were found for patients with SCLC. Conclusion: Minority patients with lung cancer have significantly higher end‐of‐life medical expenditures than NH white patients, which may be explained by a greater intensity of care in the end‐of‐life period. Implications for Practice: This study investigated racial‐ethnic disparities in the cost and utilization of medical care among lung cancer patients during the end‐of‐life period. Compared with non‐Hispanic white patients, racial‐ethnic minority patients were more likely to receive intensive care in their final month of life and had statistically significantly higher end‐of‐life care costs. The findings of this study may lead to a better understanding of the racial‐ethnic disparities in end‐of‐life care, which can better inform future end‐of‐life interventions and help health care providers develop less intensive and more equitable care, such as culturally competent advanced care planning programs, for all patients. This article evaluates racial‐ethnic disparities in cancer care for patients with lung cancer in the United States, focusing on cost and utilization of medical care in the end‐of‐life stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We studied trends in lung cancer treatment cost over time by phase of care, treatment strategy, age, stage at diagnosis, and histology. Methods: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)‐Medicare database for years 1998‐2013, we allocated total and patient‐liability costs into the following phases of care for 145 988 lung cancer patients: prediagnosis, staging, surgery, initial, continuing, and terminal. Patients served as self‐controls to determine cancer‐attributable costs based on individual precancer diagnosis healthcare costs. We fit linear regression models to determine cost by age and calendar year for each stage at diagnosis, histology, and treatment strategy and presented all costs in 2017 US dollars. Results: Monthly healthcare costs prior to lung cancer diagnosis were $861 for a 70 years old in 2017 and rose by an average of $17 per year (P < 0.001). Surgery in 2017 cost $30 096, decreasing by $257 per year (P = 0.007). Chemotherapy and radiation costs remained stable or increased for most stage and histology groups, ranging from $4242 to $8287 per month during the initial six months of care. Costs during the final six months of life decreased for those who died of lung cancer or other causes. Conclusions: Cost‐effectiveness analyses of lung cancer control interventions in the United States have been using outdated and incomplete treatment cost estimates. Our cost estimates enable updated cost‐effectiveness analyses to determine the benefit of lung cancer control from a health economics point of view. We determined total and patient‐liability costs for lung cancer patients enrolled in Medicare, enabling comprehensive analyses to assess lung cancer control strategies. Phase‐specific costs by age were determined for each stage at diagnosis, histology, and treatment strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]