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This work presents a novel data augmentation solution for non-stationary multivariate time series and its application to failure prognostics. The method extends previous work from the authors which is based on time-varying autoregressive processes. It can be employed to extract key information from a limited number of samples and generate new synthetic samples in a way that potentially improves the performance of PHM solutions. This is especially valuable in situations of data scarcity which are very usual in PHM, especially for failure prognostics. The proposed approach is tested based on the CMAPSS dataset, commonly employed for prognostics experiments and benchmarks. An AutoML approach from PHM literature is employed for automating the design of the prognostics solution. The empirical evaluation provides evidence that the proposed method can substantially improve the performance of PHM solutions., Comment: PREPRINT of paper to appear at 2024 Conference of PHM Society

In this work, we confront the bound on an ultraviolet cutoff (UV) of a quantum field theory (QFT) proposed by Cohen, Kaplan, and Nelson (CKN) with the latest results of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). The former relates the UV cutoff with an infrared (IR) cutoff of the theory, only using general entropy arguments. Identifying now the IR cutoff with the Hubble horizon yields a time-varying contribution of the vacuum energy to the dark energy density of the universe. At the same time the DESI results in combination with other cosmological data point towards a preference of time-varying dark energy models with regard to $\Lambda$CDM., Comment: Prepared for the proceedings of PASCOS 2024 in Vietnam, 5 pages, 2 figures, 1 table

We assess the potential of neutrino telescopes to discover quantum-gravity-induced decoherence effects modeled in the open-quantum system framework and with arbitrary numbers of active and dark fermion generations, such as particle dark matter or sterile neutrinos. The expected damping of neutrino flavor oscillation probabilities as a function of energy and propagation length thus encodes information about quantum gravity effects and the fermion generation multiplicity in the dark sector. We employ a public Monte-Carlo dataset by the IceCube Collaboration to model the detector response and estimate the sensitivity of IceCube to oscillation effects induced by the presented model. Our findings confirm the potential of very-large-volume neutrino telescopes to test this class of models and indicate higher sensitivities for increasing numbers of dark fermions., Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures

In this survey, we summarize recent developments in research fueled by the growing adoption of automated bidding strategies in online advertising. We explore the challenges and opportunities that have arisen as markets embrace this autobidding and cover a range of topics in this area, including bidding algorithms, equilibrium analysis and efficiency of common auction formats, and optimal auction design.

We introduce the notion of an online matroid embedding, which is an algorithm for mapping an unknown matroid that is revealed in an online fashion to a larger-but-known matroid. The existence of such embedding enables a reduction from the version of the matroid secretary problem where the matroid is unknown to the version where the matroid is known in advance. We show that online matroid embeddings exist for binary (and hence graphic) and laminar matroids. We also show a negative result showing that no online matroid embedding exists for the class of all matroids. Finally, we define the notion of an approximate matroid embedding, generalizing the notion of {\alpha}-partition property, and provide an upper bound on the approximability of binary matroids by a partition matroid, matching the lower bound of Dughmi et al., Comment: 25 pages, 4 figures

Image search and retrieval tasks can perpetuate harmful stereotypes, erase cultural identities, and amplify social disparities. Current approaches to mitigate these representational harms balance the number of retrieved items across population groups defined by a small number of (often binary) attributes. However, most existing methods overlook intersectional groups determined by combinations of group attributes, such as gender, race, and ethnicity. We introduce Multi-Group Proportional Representation (MPR), a novel metric that measures representation across intersectional groups. We develop practical methods for estimating MPR, provide theoretical guarantees, and propose optimization algorithms to ensure MPR in retrieval. We demonstrate that existing methods optimizing for equal and proportional representation metrics may fail to promote MPR. Crucially, our work shows that optimizing MPR yields more proportional representation across multiple intersectional groups specified by a rich function class, often with minimal compromise in retrieval accuracy., Comment: 48 pages, 33 figures. Accepted as poster at NeurIPS 2024. Code can be found at https://github.com/alex-oesterling/multigroup-proportional-representation

It has become the default in markets such as ad auctions for participants to bid in an auction through automated bidding agents (autobidders) which adjust bids over time to satisfy return-over-spend constraints. Despite the prominence of such systems for the internet economy, their resulting dynamical behavior is still not well understood. Although one might hope that such relatively simple systems would typically converge to the equilibria of their underlying auctions, we provide a plethora of results that show the emergence of complex behavior, such as bi-stability, periodic orbits and quasi periodicity. We empirically observe how the market structure (expressed as motifs) qualitatively affects the behavior of the dynamics. We complement it with theoretical results showing that autobidding systems can simulate both linear dynamical systems as well logical boolean gates.

Gravity constrains the range of validity of quantum field theory. As has been pointed out by Cohen, Kaplan, and Nelson (CKN), such effects lead to interdependent ultraviolet (UV) and infrared (IR) cutoffs that may stabilize the dark energy of the universe against quantum corrections, if the IR cutoff is set by the Hubble horizon. As a consequence of the cosmic expansion, this argument implies a time-dependent dark energy density. In this paper we confront this idea with recent data from DESI BAO, Hubble and supernova measurements. We find that the CKN model provides a better fit to the data than the $\Lambda$CDM model and can compete with other models of time-dependent dark energy that have been studied so far., Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, 6 tables; accepted for publication in JCAP

Feature attribution methods explain black-box machine learning (ML) models by assigning importance scores to input features. These methods can be computationally expensive for large ML models. To address this challenge, there has been increasing efforts to develop amortized explainers, where a machine learning model is trained to predict feature attribution scores with only one inference. Despite their efficiency, amortized explainers can produce inaccurate predictions and misleading explanations. In this paper, we propose selective explanations, a novel feature attribution method that (i) detects when amortized explainers generate low-quality explanations and (ii) improves these explanations using a technique called explanations with initial guess. Our selective explanation method allows practitioners to specify the fraction of samples that receive explanations with initial guess, offering a principled way to bridge the gap between amortized explainers and their high-quality counterparts.

Gravitational waves (GWs) can alter the neutrino propagation distance and thus affect neutrino oscillations. This can result in a complete disappearance of the oscillatory behavior that competes with other sources of neutrino decoherence. We develop a set of criteria that determines under which conditions neutrino oscillations are sensitive to this effect. We find that current or near future neutrino oscillation experiments are not sufficiently sensitive to coherent GW signals but may probe the stochastic gravitational wave background if the energy resolution improves drastically by several orders of magnitude., Comment: 28 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables; fixed numerical mistake

Perturbation-based explanation methods such as LIME and SHAP are commonly applied to text classification. This work focuses on their extension to generative language models. To address the challenges of text as output and long text inputs, we propose a general framework called MExGen that can be instantiated with different attribution algorithms. To handle text output, we introduce the notion of scalarizers for mapping text to real numbers and investigate multiple possibilities. To handle long inputs, we take a multi-level approach, proceeding from coarser levels of granularity to finer ones, and focus on algorithms with linear scaling in model queries. We conduct a systematic evaluation, both automated and human, of perturbation-based attribution methods for summarization and context-grounded question answering. The results show that our framework can provide more locally faithful explanations of generated outputs.

Any social choice function (e.g the efficient allocation) can be implemented using different payment rules: first price, second price, all-pay, etc. All of these payment rules are guaranteed to have the same expected revenue by the revenue equivalence theorem, but have different distributions of revenue, leading to a question of which one is best. We prove that among all possible payment rules, winner-pays-bid minimizes the variance in revenue and, in fact, minimizes any convex risk measure.

Machine learning (ML) is widely used to moderate online content. Despite its scalability relative to human moderation, the use of ML introduces unique challenges to content moderation. One such challenge is predictive multiplicity: multiple competing models for content classification may perform equally well on average, yet assign conflicting predictions to the same content. This multiplicity can result from seemingly innocuous choices during model development, such as random seed selection for parameter initialization. We experimentally demonstrate how content moderation tools can arbitrarily classify samples as toxic, leading to arbitrary restrictions on speech. We discuss these findings in terms of human rights set out by the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), namely freedom of expression, non-discrimination, and procedural justice. We analyze (i) the extent of predictive multiplicity among state-of-the-art LLMs used for detecting toxic content; (ii) the disparate impact of this arbitrariness across social groups; and (iii) how model multiplicity compares to unambiguous human classifications. Our findings indicate that the up-scaled algorithmic moderation risks legitimizing an algorithmic leviathan, where an algorithm disproportionately manages human rights. To mitigate such risks, our study underscores the need to identify and increase the transparency of arbitrariness in content moderation applications. Since algorithmic content moderation is being fueled by pressing social concerns, such as disinformation and hate speech, our discussion on harms raises concerns relevant to policy debates. Our findings also contribute to content moderation and intermediary liability laws being discussed and passed in many countries, such as the Digital Services Act in the European Union, the Online Safety Act in the United Kingdom, and the Fake News Bill in Brazil.

This paper presents a detailed case study examining the application of Large Language Models (LLMs) in the construction of test cases within the context of software engineering. LLMs, characterized by their advanced natural language processing capabilities, are increasingly garnering attention as tools to automate and enhance various aspects of the software development life cycle. Leveraging a case study methodology, we systematically explore the integration of LLMs in the test case construction process, aiming to shed light on their practical efficacy, challenges encountered, and implications for software quality assurance. The study encompasses the selection of a representative software application, the formulation of test case construction methodologies employing LLMs, and the subsequent evaluation of outcomes. Through a blend of qualitative and quantitative analyses, this study assesses the impact of LLMs on test case comprehensiveness, accuracy, and efficiency. Additionally, delves into challenges such as model interpretability and adaptation to diverse software contexts. The findings from this case study contributes with nuanced insights into the practical utility of LLMs in the domain of test case construction, elucidating their potential benefits and limitations. By addressing real-world scenarios and complexities, this research aims to inform software practitioners and researchers alike about the tangible implications of incorporating LLMs into the software testing landscape, fostering a more comprehensive understanding of their role in optimizing the software development process.

The success of Bayesian persuasion relies on the key assumption that the sender will commit to a predetermined information disclosure policy (signaling scheme). However, in practice, it is usually difficult for the receiver to monitor whether the sender sticks to the disclosure policy, which makes the credibility of the sender's disclosure policy questionable. The sender's credibility is particularly tenuous when there are obvious deviations that benefit the sender. In this work, we identify such a deviation: the sender may be unwilling to send a signal that will lead to a less desirable outcome compared to no information disclosure. We thus propose the notion of ex-post individually rational (ex-post IR) Bayesian persuasion: after observing the state, the sender is never required to send a signal that will make the outcome worse off (compared to no information disclosure). An ex-post IR Bayesian persuasion policy is more likely to be truthfully followed by the sender, and thus more credible for the receiver. Our contribution is threefold. Firstly, we demonstrate that the optimal ex-post IR Bayesian persuasion policy can be efficiently computed through a linear program, while also offering geometric characterizations of this optimal policy. Second, we show that surprisingly, for non-trivial classes of games, the imposition of ex-post IR constraints does not affect the sender's expected utility. Finally, we compare ex-post IR Bayesian persuasion to other information disclosure models that ensure different notions of credibility., Comment: 21 pages

Machine learning (ML) models used in prediction and classification tasks may display performance disparities across population groups determined by sensitive attributes (e.g., race, sex, age). We consider the problem of evaluating the performance of a fixed ML model across population groups defined by multiple sensitive attributes (e.g., race and sex and age). Here, the sample complexity for estimating the worst-case performance gap across groups (e.g., the largest difference in error rates) increases exponentially with the number of group-denoting sensitive attributes. To address this issue, we propose an approach to test for performance disparities based on Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). By allowing a small probabilistic slack on the groups over which a model has approximately equal performance, we show that the sample complexity required for discovering performance violations is reduced exponentially to be at most upper bounded by the square root of the number of groups. As a byproduct of our analysis, when the groups are weighted by a specific prior distribution, we show that R\'enyi entropy of order 2/3 of the prior distribution captures the sample complexity of the proposed CVaR test algorithm. Finally, we also show that there exists a non-i.i.d. data collection strategy that results in a sample complexity independent of the number of groups., Comment: Accepted for publication in the IEEE Journal on Selected Areas in Information Theory (JSAIT)