Search

The article informs about substantial investments in climate mitigation to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement along with political and financial barriers continue to hinder mitigation efforts. It mentions that Global mitigation investment pathways modeled in the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for progress on the alignment of financial flows with low greenhouse gas emissions pathways to reach global climate goals in a cost-effective manner.

The Central American nations of Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua are among the poorest in the Americas. While the fraction of population dependent on solid fuels has declined in these nations over the last 25 years, the number of people using them has risen. Here, we first assess current patterns of cooking energy use in these nations. We then apply a discrete model of household cooking choices and demand to simulate future pathways of clean cooking uptake and the outlook for achieving target 7.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), which aims to ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services by 2030. We find that by 2030, ensuing income growth is likely to enable 90% of urban populations in these nations to switch to using modern cooking energy services. However, without supporting policies, between 40% to 50% of rural Guatemalans and Hondurans, while over two-thirds of rural Nicaraguans, are likely to find clean fuels or stoves unaffordable in 2030. A targeted subsidy on modern fuels, like liquid petroleum gas (LPG), is the most effective policy mechanism we studied that could provide such support. A 50% subsidy policy on LPG targeted to the rural and urban poor population could, by 2030, make cooking with LPG affordable to an additional 7.3 million people in these countries. We estimate that such a policy would cost about $250 million per year and would have negligible greenhouse gas emissions impacts. Such a policy could also have significant health benefits, preventing about 8,890 premature deaths annually from reduced exposure to cooking-related household pollution in 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Green Economy (GE) paradigm aims to reconcile environmental and socio-economic objectives. Policies to deploy renewable energy (RE) are widely perceived as a way to tap the potential synergies of these objectives. It is, however, still largely unclear whether the potential of simultaneously achieving both environmental and socio-economic objectives can be fully realized, and whether and how multiple objectives influence policy design, implementation, and evaluation. We aim to contribute to this aspect of GE research by looking at selected country experiences of renewable energy deployment with respect to the socio-economic goals of job creation or energy access. Across the cases examined, we find the following implications of relevance for the GE framework: First, we confirm the important role of governmental action for GE, with the specific need to state objectives clearly and build monitoring capacity. Second, consistent with the “strong” green growth variant of GE, some of the cases suggest that while renewable deployment may indeed lead to short-term socio-economic benefits, these benefits may not last. Third, we underline the urgent need for new methodologies to analyze and better understand multiple-objective policies, which are at the heart of the GE paradigm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today Africa is a small emitter, but it has a large and faster-than-average growing population and per capita income that could drive future energy demand and, if unconstrained, emissions. This paper uses a multi-model comparison to characterize the potential future energy development for Continental and Sub-Saharan Africa under different assumptions about population and income. Our results suggest that population and economic growth rates will strongly influence Africa's future energy use and emissions. We show that affluence is only one face of the medal and the range of future emissions is also contingent on technological and political factors. Higher energy intensity improvements occur when Africa grows faster. In contrast, climate intensity varies less with economic growth and it is mostly driven by climate policy. African emissions could account for between 5 % and 20 % of global emissions, with Sub-Saharan Africa contributing between 4 % and 10 % of world emissions in 2100. In all scenarios considered, affluence levels remain low until the middle of the century, suggesting that the population could remain dependent on traditional bioenergy to meet most residential energy needs. Although the share of electricity in final energy, electric capacity and electricity use per capita all rise with income, even by mid-century they do not reach levels observed in developed countries today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings are key in supporting human activities and well-being by providing shelter and other important services to their users. Buildings are, however, also responsible for major energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during their life cycle. Improving the quality of services provided by buildings while reaching low energy demand (LED) levels is crucial for climate and sustainability targets. Building sector models have become essential tools for decision support on strategies to reduce energy demand and GHG emissions. Yet current models have significant limitations in their ability to assess the transformations required for LED. We review building sector models ranging from the subnational to the global scale to identify best practices and critical gaps in representing transformations toward LED futures. We focus on three key dimensions of intervention (socio-behavioral, infrastructural, and technological), three megatrends (digitalization, sharing economy, and circular economy), and decent living standards. This review recommends the model developments needed to better assess LED transformations in buildings and support decision-making toward sustainability targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract With growing health risks from rising temperatures in the Global South, the lack of essential indoor cooling is increasingly seen as a dimension of energy poverty and human well-being. Air conditioning (AC) is expected to increase significantly with rising incomes, but it is likely that many who need AC will not have it. We estimate the current location and extent of populations potentially exposed to heat stress in the Global South. We apply a variable degree days (VDD) method on a global grid to estimate the energy demand required to meet these cooling needs, accounting for spatially explicit climate, housing types, access to electricity and AC ownership. Our results show large gaps in access to essential space cooling, especially in India, South-East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Between 1.8 to 4.1 billion, depending on the required indoor temperatures and days of exposure, may need AC to avoid heat related stresses under current climate and socio-economic conditions. This number far exceeds the energy poverty gap indicated by the Sustainable Development Goal for electricity access (SDG7). Covering this cooling gap would entail a median energy demand growth of 14% of current global residential electricity consumption, primarily for AC. Solutions beyond improved AC efficiency, such as passive building and city design, innovative cooling technologies, and parsimonious use of AC will be needed to ensure essential cooling for all with minimized environmental damage. Meeting the essential cooling gap, as estimated by this study, can have important interactions with achieving several of the SDGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a quantitative assessment of Sustainable Energy Security (SES) of the energy demand sub-system for India by calculating a multidimensional SES index. The demand sub-system has been evaluated for four dimensions of SES, viz., Availability, Affordability, Efficiency and (Environmental) Acceptability using 23 selected metrics. A hierarchical structure has been used to construct indices using ‘scores’ (objective values of selected metrics), and ‘weights’ (subjective values, representing importance of each metric) which are then aggregated, to obtain a SES index. Various sectors of the energy demand sub-system are evaluated and dimensional and sectoral indices are calculated for the years 2002, 2007 and 2012. Assessment of the obtained energy indices is undertaken (separately for rural and urban residential sector) and results reveal that all (except one) sectoral indices have shown an increase during the period of assessment. The results show that from 2002 to 2012, the aggregate SES index has increased by approximately 10% which indicates a gradual improvement in the sustainability and security of the energy demand sub-system. However, the SES index is approximately 0.7 (against a desired target of 1.0), which implies that there is still a large scope for improvement in the performance of the India’s energy demand sub-system. A sensitivity analysis of various indices reveals that the SES index is relatively robust to variation in weights allotted to different dimensions and hence provides a reliable assessment of the energy demand sub-system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many people in China still burn low grade solid fuels in traditional stoves to meet their cooking and heating energy demands. This results in significant pollution, affecting the health of especially women and children who are exposed most. The mode of energy consumption and types of stoves in use may change with increasing prosperity. Product specific and socio-economic parameters also influence these choices. We analyze cooking fuel and stove choices in China. Choices are modeled to depend on standard economic variables such as income, technology costs, and fuel prices, along with some variables unique to the developing country setting such as inconvenience costs. Our analysis shows that 24% of the rural and 17% of the urban population will still depend on solid fuels in 2030 under a business as usual scenario. Various policy scenarios that can accelerate transition to modern fuels by 2030 are also analyzed in this paper and their costs, energy, emissions and health impacts assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings account for 36% of global final energy demand and are key to mitigating climate change. Assessing the evolution of the global building stock and its energy demand is critical to support mitigation strategies. However, most global studies lack granularity and overlook heterogeneity in the building sector, limiting the evaluation of demand transformation scenarios. We develop global residential building scenarios along the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) 1–3 and assess the evolution of building stock, energy demand, and CO2 emissions for space heating and cooling with MESSAGEix-Buildings, a modelling framework soft-linked to an integrated assessment framework. MESSAGEix-Buildings combines bottom-up modelling of energy demand, stock turnover, and discrete choice modelling for energy efficiency decisions, and accounts for heterogeneity in geographical contexts, socio-economics, and buildings characteristics. Global CO2 emissions for space heating are projected to decrease between 34.4 (SSP3) and 52.5% (SSP1) by 2050 under energy efficiency improvements and electrification. Space cooling demand starkly rises in developing countries, with CO2 emissions increasing globally by 58.2 (SSP1) to 85.2% (SSP3) by 2050. Scenarios substantially differ in the uptake of energy efficient new construction and renovations, generally higher for single-family homes, and in space cooling patterns across income levels and locations, with most of the demand in the global south driven by medium- and high-income urban households. This study contributes an advancement in the granularity of building sector knowledge to be assessed in integration with other sources of emissions in the context of global climate change mitigation and sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since internationally sourced investment goods must be paid for at market exchange rates, capability-based interregional finance flows should be vastly larger. Comment on "Fairness considerations in global mitigation investments" Gregor Semieniuk, Jayati Ghosh, Nancy Folbre In an otherwise excellent analysis of fair regional shares of global mitigation investments, Pachauri et al. (Policy Forum, 9 December 2022, p. 1057) dramatically overestimate developing countries' "capability" to invest by estimating GDP using purchasing power parity exchange rates. In response to Semieniuk et al. we would like to first point out that, in defining the required global mitigation investments for the 2020 to 2030 period, our study relies on the estimates in the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WGIII. [Extracted from the article]

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social-environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required – one aspect of the many inputs required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, we appraise sustainable household consumption from a global perspective. Using per capita energy requirements as an indicator of environmental pressure, we focus on the importance of income growth in a cross-country analysis. Our analysis is supported by a detailed within-country analysis encompassing five countries, in which we assess the importance of various socioeconomic-demographic characteristics of household energy requirements. We bring together family expenditure survey data, input–output tables, and energy statistics in a multivariate analysis. Instead of a uniform Kuznet''s curve, we find that the effect of increasing income varies considerably across countries, even when controlling for socioeconomic and demographic variations. The latter variables show similar influences, but differing importance across countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

About 70% of Sub-Saharan African households rely on fuelwood and charcoal for cooking, which is larger than in any other region in the world. The use of these traditional biomass fuels is related to deforestation and forest degradation, but impacts are often locally specific. Zambia is one of the countries with the highest deforestation rates in the world (Vinya et al., 2011), and the use of fuelwood and charcoal is regarded as an important driver (Gumbo et al, 2013). Similar findings have been reported for Malawi (Kambewa, 2007). The use of woody biomass is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Some sources indicate it might contribute between 2-18% of global GHG emissions (World Bank, 2011; FAO, 2017). The rapid increase in population, combined with a rise in income is expected to substantially increase the demand for household energy in Africa. Under a business as usual scenario, the use of woody biomass energy sources is likely to remain high putting additional pressure on forest resources and further increase greenhouse gas emissions. There has been a recent surge in scientific analyses of the land-water-energy nexus. However, the nexus between household energy demand and deforestation, which is particularly relevant for Southern Africa, seems to have attracted limited attention. This study tries to fill this gap by offering an assessment of the land-energy nexus in Southern Africa using an innovative integrated modelling framework. A household energy model (MESSAGE-Access), employing detailed information on household fuel consumption from nationally representative expenditure surveys, is used to project future cooking energy demand for Malawi and Zambia up to 2050. These results are used as drivers in a spatially explicit land use model (GLOBIOM) to project deforestation, land use change related greenhouse gas emissions and wider socio-economic impacts such as food security, in the Southern African region. Emissions from woody biomass combustion in homes is also accounted for. Preliminary model runs indicate that the demand for charcoal will double between 2010-2050 in the business as usual scenario. Several additional scenarios will be implemented to assess the impact of potential solutions, including the expansion of protected areas, and increase in the supply of alternative energy sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]