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The mechanisms governing tree drought mortality and recovery remain a subject of inquiry and active debate given their role in the terrestrial carbon cycle and their concomitant impact on climate change. Counter-intuitively, many trees do not die during the drought itself. Indeed, observations globally have documented that trees often grow for several years after drought before mortality. A combination of meta-analysis and tree physiological models demonstrate that optimal carbon allocation after drought explains observed patterns of delayed tree mortality and provides a predictive recovery framework. Specifically, post-drought, trees attempt to repair water transport tissue and achieve positive carbon balance through regrowing drought-damaged xylem. Furthermore, the number of years of xylem regrowth required to recover function increases with tree size, explaining why drought mortality increases with size. These results indicate that tree resilience to drought-kill may increase in the future, provided that CO2 fertilisation facilitates more rapid xylem regrowth.

The rationale behind trait-based ecology is that shifting focus from species' taxonomic names to their measurable characteristics ('functional traits') leads to greater generality and predictive power. This idea has been applied to one of ecology's most intractable problems: the coexistence of competing species. But after 20 years, we lack clear evidence that functional traits effectively predict coexistence. Here, we present a theory-based argument for why this might be the case. Specifically, we argue that coexistence often depends on special quantities called 'process-informed metrics' (PIMs), which combine multiple traits and demographic characteristics in non-intuitive ways, obscuring any direct ties between individual traits and coexistence. We then lay a path forward for trait-based coexistence research that builds on mechanistic models of competition., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Extending and safeguarding tropical forest ecosystems is critical for combating climate change and biodiversity loss. One of its constituents, lianas, is spreading and increasing in abundance on a global scale. This is particularly concerning as lianas negatively impact forests' carbon fluxes, dynamics, and overall resilience, potentially exacerbating both crises. While possibly linked to climate-change-induced atmospheric CO 2 elevation and drought intensification, the reasons behind their increasing abundance remain elusive. Prior research shows distinct physiological differences between lianas and trees, but it is unclear whether these differences confer a demographic advantage to lianas with climate change. Guided by extensive datasets collected in Panamanian tropical forests, we developed a tractable model integrating physiology, demography, and epidemiology. Our findings suggest that CO 2 fertilization, a climate change factor promoting forest productivity, gives lianas a demographic advantage. Conversely, factors such as extreme drought generally cause a decrease in liana prevalence. Such a decline in liana prevalence is expected from a physiological point of view because lianas have drought-sensitive traits. However, our analysis underscores the importance of not exclusively relying on physiological processes, as interactions with demographic mechanisms (i.e., the forest structure) can contrast these expectations, causing an increase in lianas with drought. Similarly, our results emphasize that identical physiological responses between lianas and trees still lead to liana increase. Even if lianas exhibit collinear but weaker responses in their performance compared to trees, a temporary liana prevalence increase might manifest driven by the faster response time of lianas imposed by their distinct life-history strategies than trees., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

Understanding how diversity is maintained in plant communities requires that we first understand the mechanisms of competition for limiting resources. In ecology, there is an underappreciated but fundamental distinction between systems in which the depletion of limiting resources reduces the growth rates of competitors and systems in which resource depletion reduces the time available for competitors to grow, a mechanism we call 'competition for time'. Importantly, modern community ecology and our framing of the coexistence problem are built on the implicit assumption that competition reduces the growth rate. However, recent theoretical work suggests competition for time may be the predominant competitive mechanism in a broad array of natural communities, a significant advance given that when species compete for time, diversity-maintaining trade-offs emerge organically. In this study, we first introduce competition for time conceptually using a simple model of interacting species. Then, we perform an experiment in a Mediterranean annual grassland to determine whether competition for time is an important competitive mechanism in a field system. Indeed, we find that species respond to increased competition through reductions in their lifespan rather than their rate of growth. In total, our study suggests competition for time may be overlooked as a mechanism of biodiversity maintenance., (© 2024 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Tropical forests contribute a major sink for anthropogenic carbon emissions essential to slowing down the buildup of atmospheric CO 2 and buffering climate change impacts. However, the response of tropical forests to more frequent weather extremes and long-recovery disturbances like fires remains uncertain. Analyses of field data and ecological theory raise concerns about the possibility of the Amazon crossing a tipping point leading to catastrophic tropical forest loss. In contrast, climate models consistently project an enhanced tropical sink. Here, we show a heterogeneous response of Amazonian carbon stocks in GFDL-ESM4.1, an Earth System Model (ESM) featuring dynamic disturbances and height-structured tree-grass competition. Enhanced productivity due to CO 2 fertilization promotes increases in forest biomass that, under low emission scenarios, last until the end of the century. Under high emissions, positive trends reverse after 2060, when simulated fires prompt forest loss that results in a 40% decline in tropical forest biomass by 2100. Projected fires occur under dry conditions associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a response observed under current climate conditions, but exacerbated by an overall decline in precipitation. Following the initial disturbance, grassland dominance promotes recurrent fires and tree competitive exclusion, which prevents forest recovery. EC-Earth3-Veg, an ESM with a dynamic vegetation model of similar complexity, projected comparable wildfire forest loss under high emissions but faster postfire recovery rates. Our results reveal the importance of complex nonlinear responses to assessing climate change impacts and the urgent need to research postfire recovery and its representation in ESMs.

Hydrogen (H 2 ) is expected to play a crucial role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, hydrogen losses to the atmosphere impact atmospheric chemistry, including positive feedback on methane (CH 4 ), the second most important greenhouse gas. Here we investigate through a minimalist model the response of atmospheric methane to fossil fuel displacement by hydrogen. We find that CH 4 concentration may increase or decrease depending on the amount of hydrogen lost to the atmosphere and the methane emissions associated with hydrogen production. Green H 2 can mitigate atmospheric methane if hydrogen losses throughout the value chain are below 9 ± 3%. Blue H 2 can reduce methane emissions only if methane losses are below 1%. We address and discuss the main uncertainties in our results and the implications for the decarbonization of the energy sector., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

When species simultaneously compete with two or more species of competitor, higher-order interactions (HOIs) can lead to emergent properties not present when species interact in isolated pairs. To extend ecological theory to multi-competitor communities, ecologists must confront the challenges of measuring and interpreting HOIs in models of competition fit to data from nature. Such efforts are hindered by the fact that different studies use different definitions, and these definitions have unclear relationships to one another. Here, we propose a distinction between 'soft' HOIs, which identify possible interaction modification by competitors, and 'hard' HOIs, which identify interactions uniquely emerging in systems with three or more competitors. We show how these two classes of HOI differ in their motivation and interpretation, as well as the tests one uses to identify them in models fit to data. We then show how to operationalise this structure of definitions by analysing the results of a simulated competition experiment underlain by a consumer resource model. In the course of doing so, we clarify the challenges of interpreting HOIs in nature, and suggest a more precise framing of this research endeavour to catalyse further investigations., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Many tropical regions are experiencing an intensification of drought, with increasing severity and frequency. The ecosystem response to these changes is still highly uncertain. On short time scales (from diurnal to seasonal), tropical forests respond to water stress by physiological controls, such as stomatal regulation and phenological adjustment, to cope with increasing atmospheric water demand and reduced water supply. However, the interactions among biological processes and co-varying environmental factors that determine the ecosystem-level fluxes are still unclear. Furthermore, climate variability at longer time scales, such as that generated by ENSO, produces less predictable effects because it depends on a highly stochastic combination of factors that might vary among forests and even between events in the same forest. This study will present some emerging patterns of response to water stress from 5 years of water, carbon, and energy fluxes observed on a seasonal tropical forest in central Panama, including an increase in productivity during the 2015 El Niño. These responses depend on the combination of environmental factors experienced by the forest throughout the seasonal cycle, in particular, increase in solar radiation, stimulating productivity, and increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and decreasing soil moisture, limiting stomata opening. These results suggest a critical role of plant hydraulics in mediating the response to water stress over a broad range of temporal scales (diurnal, intraseasonal, seasonal, and interannual), by acclimating canopy conductance to light and VPD during different soil moisture regimes. A multilayer photosynthesis model coupled with a plant hydraulics scheme can reproduce these complex responses. However, results depend critically on parameters regulating water transport efficiency and the cost of water stress. As these costs have not been properly identified and quantified yet, more empirical research is needed to elucidate physiological mechanisms of hydraulic failure and recover, for example embolism repair and xylem regrowth., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Both competition for water and phenological variation are important determinants of plant community structure, but ecologists lack a synthetic theory for how they affect coexistence outcomes. We developed an analytically tractable model of water competition for Mediterranean annual communities and demonstrated that variation in phenology alone can maintain high diversity in spatially homogenous assemblages of water-limited plants. We modelled a system where all water arrives early in the season and species vary in their ability to grow under drying conditions. As a consequence, species differ in growing season length and compete by shortening the growing season of their competitors. This model replicates and offers mechanistic explanations for patterns observed in empirical studies of how phenology influences coexistence among Mediterranean annuals. Additionally, we found that a decreasing, concave-up trade-off between growth rate and access to water can maintain high diversity under simple but realistic assumptions. High diversity is possible because: (1) later plants escape competition after their earlier season competitors have gone to seed and (2) early-season species are more than compensated for their shortened growing season by a growth rate advantage. Together, these mechanisms provide an explanation for how phenologically variable annual plant species might coexist when competing only for water., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Competing Interests: Competing Interests The authors declare no competing interests.

The 2015-2016 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, but its influence on the carbon balance is less clear. Using Northern Hemisphere atmospheric CO 2 observations, we found both detrended atmospheric CO 2 growth rate (CGR) and CO 2 seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of 2015-2016 were much higher than that of other El Niño events. The simultaneous high CGR and SCA were unusual, because our analysis of long-term CO 2 observations at Mauna Loa revealed a significantly negative correlation between CGR and SCA. Atmospheric inversions and terrestrial ecosystem models indicate strong northern land carbon uptake during spring but substantially reduced carbon uptake (or high emissions) during early autumn, which amplified SCA but also resulted in a small anomaly in annual carbon uptake of northern ecosystems in 2015-2016. This negative ecosystem carbon uptake anomaly in early autumn was primarily due to soil water deficits and more litter decomposition caused by enhanced spring productivity. Our study demonstrates a decoupling between seasonality and annual carbon cycle balance in northern ecosystems over 2015-2016, which is unprecedented in the past five decades of El Niño events., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The exploitative segregation of plant roots (ESPR) is a theory that uses a game-theoretical model to predict plant root foraging behavior in space. The original model returns the optimal root distribution assuming exploitative competition between a pair of identical plants in soils with homogeneous resource dynamics. In this short communication, we explore avenues to develop this model further. We discuss: (i) the response of single plants to soil heterogeneity; (ii) the variability of the plant response under uneven competition scenarios; (iii) the importance of accounting for the constraints and limitations to root growth that may be imposed from the plant shoot; (iv) the importance of root functional traits to predict root foraging behavior; (v) potential model extensions to investigate facilitation by incorporating facilitative traits to roots, and (vi) the possibility of allowing plants to tune their response by accounting for non-self and non-kin root recognition. For each case, we introduce the topic briefly and present possible ways to encode those ingredients in the mathematical equations of the ESPR model, providing preliminary results when possible.

Plant roots determine carbon uptake, survivorship, and agricultural yield and represent a large proportion of the world's vegetation carbon pool. Study of belowground competition, unlike aboveground shoot competition, is hampered by our inability to observe roots. We developed a consumer-resource model based in game theory that predicts the root density spatial distribution of individual plants and tested the model predictions in a greenhouse experiment. Plants in the experiment reacted to neighbors as predicted by the model's evolutionary stable equilibrium, by both overinvesting in nearby roots and reducing their root foraging range. We thereby provide a theoretical foundation for belowground allocation of carbon by vegetation that reconciles seemingly contradictory experimental results such as root segregation and the tragedy of the commons in plant roots., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Tropical forests are a key determinant of the functioning of the Earth system, but remain a major source of uncertainty in carbon cycle models and climate change projections. In this study, we present an updated land model (LM3PPA-TV) to improve the representation of tropical forest structure and dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs). The development and parameterization of LM3PPA-TV drew on extensive datasets on tropical tree traits and long-term field censuses from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. The model defines a new plant functional type (PFT) based on the characteristics of shade-tolerant, tropical tree species, implements a new growth allocation scheme based on realistic tree allometries, incorporates hydraulic constraints on biomass accumulation, and features a new compartment for tree branches and branch fall dynamics. Simulation experiments reproduced observed diurnal and seasonal patterns in stand-level carbon and water fluxes, as well as mean canopy and understory tree growth rates, tree size distributions, and stand-level biomass on BCI. Simulations at multiple sites captured considerable variation in biomass and size structure across the tropical forest biome, including observed responses to precipitation and temperature. Model experiments suggested a major role of water limitation in controlling geographic variation forest biomass and structure. However, the failure to simulate tropical forests under extreme conditions and the systematic underestimation of forest biomass in Paleotropical locations highlighted the need to incorporate variation in hydraulic traits and multiple PFTs that capture the distinct floristic composition across tropical domains. The continued pressure on tropical forests from global change demands models which are able to simulate alternative successional pathways and their pace to recovery. LM3PPA-TV provides a tool to investigate geographic variation in tropical forests and a benchmark to continue improving the representation of tropical forests dynamics and their carbon storage potential in ESMs., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Regression dilution is a statistical inference bias that causes underestimation of the strength of dependency between two variables when the predictors are error-prone proxies (EPPs). EPPs are widely used in plant community studies focused on negative density-dependence (NDD) to quantify competitive interactions. Because of the nature of the bias, conspecific NDD is often overestimated in recruitment analyses, and in some cases, can be erroneously detected when absent. In contrast, for survival analyses, EPPs typically cause NDD to be underestimated, but underestimation is more severe for abundant species and for heterospecific effects, thereby generating spurious negative relationships between the strength of NDD and the abundances of con- and heterospecifics. This can explain why many studies observed rare species to suffer more severely from conspecific NDD, and heterospecific effects to be disproportionally smaller than conspecific effects. In general, such species-dependent bias is often related to traits associated with likely mechanisms of NDD, which creates false patterns and complicates the ecological interpretation of the analyses. Classic examples taken from literature and simulations demonstrate that this bias has been pervasive, which calls into question the emerging paradigm that intraspecific competition has been demonstrated by direct field measurements to be generally stronger than interspecific competition., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Drought-induced tree mortality is expected to increase in future climates with the potential for significant consequences to global carbon, water, and energy cycles. Xylem embolism can accumulate to lethal levels during drought, but species that can refill embolized xylem and recover hydraulic function may be able to avoid mortality. Yet the potential controls of embolism recovery, including cross-biome patterns and plant traits such as nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs), hydraulic traits, and nocturnal stomatal conductance, are unknown. We exposed eight plant species, originating from mesic (tropical and temperate) and semi-arid environments, to drought under ambient and elevated CO 2 levels, and assessed recovery from embolism following rewatering. We found a positive association between xylem recovery and NSCs, and, surprisingly, a positive relationship between xylem recovery and nocturnal stomatal conductance. Arid-zone species exhibited greater embolism recovery than mesic zone species. Our results indicate that nighttime stomatal conductance often assumed to be a wasteful use of water, may in fact be a key part of plant drought responses, and contribute to drought survival. Findings suggested distinct biome-specific responses that partially depended on species climate-of-origin precipitation or aridity index, which allowed some species to recover from xylem embolism. These findings provide improved understanding required to predict the response of diverse plant communities to drought. Our results provide a framework for predicting future vegetation shifts in response to climate change., Competing Interests: None declared.

Tropical forest responses are an important feedback on global change, but changes in forest composition with projected increases in CO 2 and drought are highly uncertain. Here we determine shifts in the most competitive plant hydraulic strategy (the evolutionary stable strategy or ESS) from changes in CO 2 and drought frequency and intensity. Hydraulic strategies were defined along a spectrum from drought avoidance to tolerance by physiology traits. Drought impacted competition more than CO 2 , with elevated CO 2 reducing but not reversing drought-induced shifts in the ESS towards more tolerant strategies. Trait plasticity and/or adaptation intensified these shifts by increasing the competitive ability of the drought tolerant relative to the avoidant strategies. These findings predict losses of drought avoidant evergreens from tropical forests under global change, and point to the importance of changes in precipitation during the dry season and constraints on plasticity and adaptation in xylem traits to forest responses., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Methane emissions from the U.S. oil and natural gas supply chain were estimated by using ground-based, facility-scale measurements and validated with aircraft observations in areas accounting for ~30% of U.S. gas production. When scaled up nationally, our facility-based estimate of 2015 supply chain emissions is 13 ± 2 teragrams per year, equivalent to 2.3% of gross U.S. gas production. This value is ~60% higher than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency inventory estimate, likely because existing inventory methods miss emissions released during abnormal operating conditions. Methane emissions of this magnitude, per unit of natural gas consumed, produce radiative forcing over a 20-year time horizon comparable to the CO 2 from natural gas combustion. Substantial emission reductions are feasible through rapid detection of the root causes of high emissions and deployment of less failure-prone systems., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

In tropical regions, fires propagate readily in grasslands but typically consume only edges of forest patches. Thus, forest patches grow due to tree propagation and shrink by fires in surrounding grasslands. The interplay between these competing edge effects is unknown, but critical in determining the shape and stability of individual forest patches, as well the landscape-level spatial distribution and stability of forests. We analyze high-resolution remote-sensing data from protected Brazilian Cerrado areas and find that forest shapes obey a robust perimeter-area scaling relation across climatic zones. We explain this scaling by introducing a heterogeneous fire propagation model of tropical forest-grassland ecotones. Deviations from this perimeter-area relation determine the stability of individual forest patches. At a larger scale, our model predicts that the relative rates of tree growth due to propagative expansion and long-distance seed dispersal determine whether collapse of regional-scale tree cover is continuous or discontinuous as fire frequency changes., (© 2018 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Understanding variation in leaf functional traits-including rates of photosynthesis and respiration and concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus-is a fundamental challenge in plant ecophysiology. When expressed per unit leaf area, these traits typically increase with leaf mass per area ( LMA ) within species but are roughly independent of LMA across the global flora. LMA is determined by mass components with different biological functions, including photosynthetic mass that largely determines metabolic rates and contains most nitrogen and phosphorus, and structural mass that affects toughness and leaf lifespan ( LL ). A possible explanation for the contrasting trait relationships is that most LMA variation within species is associated with variation in photosynthetic mass, whereas most LMA variation across the global flora is associated with variation in structural mass. This hypothesis leads to the predictions that ( i ) gas exchange rates and nutrient concentrations per unit leaf area should increase strongly with LMA across species assemblages with low LL variance but should increase weakly with LMA across species assemblages with high LL variance and that ( ii ) controlling for LL variation should increase the strength of the above LMA relationships. We present analyses of intra- and interspecific trait variation from three tropical forest sites and interspecific analyses within functional groups in a global dataset that are consistent with the above predictions. Our analysis suggests that the qualitatively different trait relationships exhibited by different leaf assemblages can be understood by considering the degree to which photosynthetic and structural mass components contribute to LMA variation in a given assemblage., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Rapid warming and changes in water availability at high latitudes alter resource abundance, tree competition, and disturbance regimes. While these changes are expected to disrupt the functioning of boreal forests, their ultimate implications for forest composition are uncertain. In particular, recent site-level studies of the Alaskan boreal forest have reported both increases and decreases in productivity over the past few decades. Here, we test the idea that variations in Alaskan forest growth and mortality rates are contingent on species composition. Using forest inventory measurements and climate data from plots located throughout interior and south-central Alaska, we show significant growth and mortality responses associated with competition, midsummer vapor pressure deficit, and increased growing season length. The governing climate and competition processes differed substantially across species. Surprisingly, the most dramatic climate response occurred in the drought tolerant angiosperm species, trembling aspen, and linked high midsummer vapor pressure deficits to decreased growth and increased insect-related mortality. Given that species composition in the Alaskan and western Canadian boreal forests is projected to shift toward early-successional angiosperm species due to fire regime, these results underscore the potential for a reduction in boreal productivity stemming from increases in midsummer evaporative demand., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Symbiotic nitrogen (N) fixation provides a dominant source of new N to the terrestrial biosphere, yet in many cases the abundance of N-fixing trees appears paradoxical. N-fixing trees, which should be favored when N is limiting, are rare in higher latitude forests where N limitation is common, but are abundant in many lower latitude forests where N limitation is rare. Here, we develop a graphical and mathematical model to resolve the paradox. We use the model to demonstrate that N fixation is not necessarily cost effective under all degrees of N limitation, as intuition suggests. Rather, N fixation is only cost effective when N limitation is sufficiently severe. This general finding, specific versions of which have also emerged from other models, would explain sustained moderate N limitation because N-fixing trees would either turn N fixation off or be outcompeted under moderate N limitation. From this finding, four general hypothesis classes emerge to resolve the apparent paradox of N limitation and N-fixing tree abundance across latitude. The first hypothesis is that N limitation is less common at higher latitudes. This hypothesis contradicts prevailing evidence, so is unlikely, but the following three hypotheses all seem likely. The second hypothesis, which is new, is that even if N limitation is more common at higher latitudes, more severe N limitation might be more common at lower latitudes because of the capacity for higher N demand. Third, N fixation might be cost effective under milder N limitation at lower latitudes but only under more severe N limitation at higher latitudes. This third hypothesis class generalizes previous hypotheses and suggests new specific hypotheses. For example, greater trade-offs between N fixation and N use efficiency, soil N uptake, or plant turnover at higher compared to lower latitudes would make N fixation cost effective only under more severe N limitation at higher latitudes. Fourth, N-fixing trees might adjust N fixation more at lower than at higher latitudes. This framework provides new hypotheses to explain the latitudinal abundance distribution of N-fixing trees, and also provides a new way to visualize them. Therefore, it can help explain the seemingly paradoxical persistence of N limitation in many higher latitude forests., (© 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Earth system models are incorporating plant trait diversity into their land components to better predict vegetation dynamics in a changing climate. However, extant plant trait distributions will not allow extrapolations to novel community assemblages in future climates, which will require a mechanistic understanding of the trade-offs that determine trait diversity. In this study, we show how physiological trade-offs involving leaf mass per unit area (LMA), leaf lifespan, leaf nitrogen, and leaf respiration may explain the distribution patterns of evergreen and deciduous trees in the temperate and boreal zones based on (1) an evolutionary analysis of a simple mathematical model and (2) simulation experiments of an individual-based dynamic vegetation model (i.e., LM3-PPA). The evolutionary analysis shows that these leaf traits set up a trade-off between carbon- and nitrogen-use efficiency at the scale of individual trees and therefore determine competitively dominant leaf strategies. As soil nitrogen availability increases, the dominant leaf strategy switches from one that is high in nitrogen-use efficiency to one that is high in carbon-use efficiency or, equivalently, from high-LMA/long-lived leaves (i.e., evergreen) to low-LMA/short-lived leaves (i.e., deciduous). In a region of intermediate soil nitrogen availability, the dominant leaf strategy may be either deciduous or evergreen depending on the initial conditions of plant trait abundance (i.e., founder controlled) due to feedbacks of leaf traits on soil nitrogen mineralization through litter quality. Simulated successional patterns by LM3-PPA from the leaf physiological trade-offs are consistent with observed successional dynamics of evergreen and deciduous forests at three sites spanning the temperate to boreal zones., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Fire regimes in savannas and forests are changing over much of the world. Anticipating the impact of these changes requires understanding how plants are adapted to fire. In this study, we test whether fire imposes a broad selective force on a key fire-tolerance trait, bark thickness, across 572 tree species distributed worldwide. We show that investment in thick bark is a pervasive adaptation in frequently burned areas across savannas and forests in both temperate and tropical regions where surface fires occur. Geographic variability in bark thickness is largely explained by annual burned area and precipitation seasonality. Combining environmental and species distribution data allowed us to assess vulnerability to future climate and fire conditions: tropical rainforests are especially vulnerable, whereas seasonal forests and savannas are more robust. The strong link between fire and bark thickness provides an avenue for assessing the vulnerability of tree communities to fire and demands inclusion in global models., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

For over 40 y the dominant theory of stomatal behavior has been that plants should open stomates until the carbon gained by an infinitesimal additional opening balances the additional water lost times a water price that is constant at least over short periods. This theory has persisted because of its remarkable success in explaining strongly supported simple empirical models of stomatal conductance, even though we have also known for over 40 y that the theory is not consistent with competition among plants for water. We develop an alternative theory in which plants maximize carbon gain without pricing water loss and also add two features to both this and the classical theory, which are strongly supported by empirical evidence: (i) water flow through xylem that is progressively impaired as xylem water potential drops and (ii) fitness or carbon costs associated with low water potentials caused by a variety of mechanisms, including xylem damage repair. We show that our alternative carbon-maximization optimization is consistent with plant competition because it yields an evolutionary stable strategy (ESS)-species with the ESS stomatal behavior that will outcompete all others. We further show that, like the classical theory, the alternative theory also explains the functional forms of empirical stomatal models. We derive ways to test between the alternative optimization criteria by introducing a metric-the marginal xylem tension efficiency, which quantifies the amount of photosynthesis a plant will forego from opening stomatal an infinitesimal amount more to avoid a drop in water potential., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Tropical tree size distributions are remarkably consistent despite differences in the environments that support them. With data analysis and theory, we found a simple and biologically intuitive hypothesis to explain this property, which is the foundation of forest dynamics modeling and carbon storage estimates. After a disturbance, new individuals in the forest gap grow quickly in full sun until they begin to overtop one another. The two-dimensional space-filling of the growing crowns of the tallest individuals relegates a group of losing, slow-growing individuals to the understory. Those left in the understory follow a power-law size distribution, the scaling of which depends on only the crown area-to-diameter allometry exponent: a well-conserved value across tropical forests., (Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Published estimates of methane emissions from atmospheric data (top-down approaches) exceed those from source-based inventories (bottom-up approaches), leading to conflicting claims about the climate implications of fuel switching from coal or petroleum to natural gas. Based on data from a coordinated campaign in the Barnett Shale oil and gas-producing region of Texas, we find that top-down and bottom-up estimates of both total and fossil methane emissions agree within statistical confidence intervals (relative differences are 10% for fossil methane and 0.1% for total methane). We reduced uncertainty in top-down estimates by using repeated mass balance measurements, as well as ethane as a fingerprint for source attribution. Similarly, our bottom-up estimate incorporates a more complete count of facilities than past inventories, which omitted a significant number of major sources, and more effectively accounts for the influence of large emission sources using a statistical estimator that integrates observations from multiple ground-based measurement datasets. Two percent of oil and gas facilities in the Barnett accounts for half of methane emissions at any given time, and high-emitting facilities appear to be spatiotemporally variable. Measured oil and gas methane emissions are 90% larger than estimates based on the US Environmental Protection Agency's Greenhouse Gas Inventory and correspond to 1.5% of natural gas production. This rate of methane loss increases the 20-y climate impacts of natural gas consumed in the region by roughly 50%.

The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO2-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link between changes in temperature and precipitation and terrestrial processes remains uncertain. Here, we combine atmospheric mass balance, remote sensing-modeled datasets of vegetation C uptake, and climate datasets to characterize the temporal variability of the terrestrial C sink and determine the dominant climate drivers of this variability. We show that the interannual variability of global land C sink has grown by 50-100% over the past 50 y. We further find that interannual land C sink variability is most strongly linked to tropical nighttime warming, likely through respiration. This apparent sensitivity of respiration to nighttime temperatures, which are projected to increase faster than global average temperatures, suggests that C stored in tropical forests may be vulnerable to future warming.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and changing rainfall regimes are creating novel environments for plant communities around the world. The resulting changes in plant productivity and allocation among tissues will have significant impacts on forest carbon storage and the global carbon cycle, yet these effects may depend on mechanisms not included in global models. Here we focus on the role of individual-level competition for water and light in forest carbon allocation and storage across rainfall regimes. We find that the complexity of plant responses to rainfall regimes in experiments can be explained by individual-based competition for water and light within a continuously varying soil moisture environment. Further, we find that elevated CO2 leads to large amplifications of carbon storage when it alleviates competition for water by incentivizing competitive plants to divert carbon from short-lived fine roots to long-lived woody biomass. Overall, we find that plant dependence on rainfall regimes and plant responses to added CO2 are complex, but understandable. The insights developed here will serve as an important foundation as we work to predict the responses of plants to the full, multidimensional reality of climate change, which involves not only changes in rainfall and CO2 but also changes in temperature, nutrient availability, and disturbance rates, among others.

The neutral theory of biodiversity (NTB) provides an individual-based modeling framework to study eco-evolutionary dynamics. Previous NTB models usually assumed the same per capita rate of speciation across lineages. However, population dynamics may induce macroevolutionary feedbacks that can result in variable per capita speciation rates across lineages. In this paper, with analytical and simulation approaches, we explore how different scenarios of density-dependent speciation may impact the diversity and phylogenetic patterns of neutral communities, and compare the results to predictions of the original NTB model with an invariant speciation rate. Our results show that positive per capita speciation rate-abundance relationships could result in higher species richness and evenness, enhanced stability (evidenced by higher post-disturbance recovery rates and lower temporal variability in species diversity), and higher imbalance in phylogenetic trees. The opposite patterns are predicted when per capita speciation rates decrease with abundance. Particularly, strong negative speciation rate-abundance relationships can generate a positive correlation between phylogenetic age and abundance, which has been observed in Panamanian tree species. Our findings demonstrate the importance of eco-evolutionary feedbacks for understanding long-term diversity and phylogenetic patterns in ecological communities., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Changes in resource availability often cause competitively driven changes in tree allocation to foliage, wood, and fine roots, either via plastic changes within individuals or through turnover of individuals with differing strategies. Here, we investigate how optimally competitive tree allocation should change in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 along a gradient of nitrogen and light availability, together with how those changes should affect carbon storage in living biomass. We present a physiologically-based forest model that includes the primary functions of wood and nitrogen. From a tree's perspective, wood is an offensive and defensive weapon used against neighbors in competition for light. From a biogeochemical perspective, wood is the primary living reservoir of stored carbon. Nitrogen constitutes a tree's photosynthetic machinery and the support systems for that machinery, and its limited availability thus reduces a tree's ability to fix carbon. This model has been previously successful in predicting allocation to foliage, wood, and fine roots along natural productivity gradients. Using game theory, we solve the model for competitively optimal foliage, wood, and fine root allocation strategies for trees in competition for nitrogen and light as a function of CO2 and nitrogen mineralization rate. Instead of down-regulating under nitrogen limitation, carbon storage under elevated CO2 relative to carbon storage at ambient CO2 is approximately independent of the nitrogen mineralization rate. This surprising prediction is a consequence of both increased competition for nitrogen driving increased fine root biomass and increased competition for light driving increased allocation to wood under elevated CO2 ., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Understanding, modeling, and predicting the impact of global change on ecosystem functioning across biogeographical gradients can benefit from enhanced capacity to represent biota as a continuous distribution of traits. However, this is a challenge for the field of biogeography historically grounded on the species concept. Here we focus on the newly emergent field of functional biogeography: the study of the geographic distribution of trait diversity across organizational levels. We show how functional biogeography bridges species-based biogeography and earth science to provide ideas and tools to help explain gradients in multifaceted diversity (including species, functional, and phylogenetic diversities), predict ecosystem functioning and services worldwide, and infuse regional and global conservation programs with a functional basis. Although much recent progress has been made possible because of the rising of multiple data streams, new developments in ecoinformatics, and new methodological advances, future directions should provide a theoretical and comprehensive framework for the scaling of biotic interactions across trophic levels and its ecological implications.

Efforts to test and improve terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) using a variety of data sources have become increasingly common. Yet, geographically extensive forest inventories have been under-exploited in previous model-data fusion efforts. Inventory observations of forest growth, mortality, and biomass integrate processes across a range of timescales, including slow timescale processes such as species turnover, that are likely to have important effects on ecosystem responses to environmental variation. However, the large number (thousands) of inventory plots precludes detailed measurements at each location, so that uncertainty in climate, soil properties, and other environmental drivers may be large. Errors in driver variables, if ignored, introduce bias into model-data fusion. We estimated errors in climate and soil drivers at U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots, and we explored the effects of these errors on model-data fusion with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory LM3V dynamic global vegetation model. When driver errors were ignored or assumed small at FIA plots, responses of biomass production in LM3V to precipitation and soil available water capacity appeared steeper than the corresponding responses estimated from FIA data. These differences became nonsignificant if driver errors at FIA plots were assumed to be large. Ignoring driver errors when optimizing LM3V parameter values yielded estimates for fine-root allocation that were larger than biometric estimates, which is consistent with the expected direction of bias. To explore whether complications posed by driver errors could be circumvented by relying on intensive study sites where driver errors are small, we performed a power analysis. To accurately quantify the response of biomass production to spatial variation in mean annual precipitation within the eastern United States would require at least 40 intensive study sites, which is larger than the number of sites typically available for individual biomes in existing plot networks. Driver errors may be accommodated by several existing model-data fusion approaches, including hierarchical Bayesian methods and ensemble filtering methods; however, these methods are computationally expensive. We propose a new approach, in which the TBM functional response is fit directly to the driver-error-corrected functional response estimated from data, rather than to the raw observations.

The ability to down-regulate leaf maximum net photosynthetic capacity (Amax) and dark respiration rate (Rdark) in response to shading is thought to be an important adaptation of trees to the wide range of light environments that they are exposed to across space and time. A simple, general rule that accurately described this down-regulation would improve carbon cycle models and enhance our understanding of how forest successional diversity is maintained. In this paper, we investigated the light response of Amax and Rdark for saplings of six temperate forest tree species in New Jersey, USA, and formulated a simple model of down-regulation that could be incorporated into carbon cycle models. We found that full-sun values of Amax and Rdark differed significantly among species, but the rate of down-regulation (proportional decrease in Amax or Rdark relative to the full-sun value) in response to shade was not significantly species- or taxon-specific. Shade leaves of sun-grown plants appear to follow the same pattern of down-regulation in response to shade as leaves of shade-grown plants. Given the light level above a leaf and one species-specific number (either the full-sun Amax or full-sun Rdark), we provide a formula that can accurately predict the leaf's Amax and Rdark. We further show that most of the down regulation of per unit area Rdark and Amax is caused by reductions in leaf mass per unit area (LMA): as light decreases, leaves get thinner, while per unit mass Amax and Rdark remain approximately constant.

Almost all models of plant resource limitation are grounded in either one or both of two simple conceptual models: Liebig's Minimum Hypothesis (LMH), the idea that plants are limited by the resource in shortest supply, and the Multiple Limitation Hypothesis (MLH), the idea that plants should adjust to their environment so that all essential resources are equally limiting. Despite the differences in their predictions, experiments have so far failed to discriminate between them. In a simple factorial nitrogen and water addition experiment in a Minnesota grassland, we observed shifts in allocation that, as in previous studies, are not all explained by a single theory. We found that leaf biomass responded positively to nitrogen additions but did not respond to water additions. We found that fine-root biomass increased in response to water additions, but only at low nitrogen levels, and that fine-root biomass decreased in response to nitrogen additions, but only at high water levels. To understand these responses we built a physiologically based model of plant competition for water, nitrogen, and space to predict plant allocation to fine roots and leaves. Critically, we include in our model the inherent variability of soil moisture and treat light, water, and nitrogen as resources with distinct mechanistic roles. Experimental results showed that plants were nitrogen and water limited. The model explains the experimental results, under conditions of co-limitation, as follows. Foliage increases with nitrogen additions but not water additions because leaf construction is constrained by nitrogen uptake. When water is added, plants spend a larger fraction of the growing season limited by light (and effectively nitrogen) than by water. Thus, water additions cause fine-root biomass to increase because of the increased importance of nitrogen limitation. The response of fine-root biomass to water additions decreases with nitrogen additions because these additions reduce nitrogen limitation. In general, our results are explained by sequential resource limitation. The rate of carbon assimilation may be limited by a single resource at any one moment, but the identity of the limiting resource(s) changes throughout the growing season.

Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of enhanced vegetation growth under future elevated atmospheric CO2 for 21st century climate warming. Surprisingly no study has completed an analogous assessment for the historical period, during which emissions of greenhouse gases increased rapidly and land-use changes (LUC) dramatically altered terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory comprehensive Earth System Model ESM2G and a reconstruction of the LUC, we estimate that enhanced vegetation growth has lowered the historical atmospheric CO2 concentration by 85 ppm, avoiding an additional 0.31 ± 0.06 °C warming. We demonstrate that without enhanced vegetation growth the total residual terrestrial carbon flux (i.e., the net land flux minus LUC flux) would be a source of 65-82 Gt of carbon (GtC) to atmosphere instead of the historical residual carbon sink of 186-192 GtC, a carbon saving of 251-274 GtC.

Neutral models of species diversity predict patterns of abundance for communities in which all individuals are ecologically equivalent. These models were originally developed for Panamanian trees and successfully reproduce observed distributions of abundance. Neutral models also make macroevolutionary predictions that have rarely been evaluated or tested. Here we show that neutral models predict a humped or flat relationship between species age and population size. In contrast, ages and abundances of tree species in the Panamanian Canal watershed are found to be positively correlated, which falsifies the models. Speciation rates vary among phylogenetic lineages and are partially heritable from mother to daughter species. Variable speciation rates in an otherwise neutral model lead to a demographic advantage for species with low speciation rate. This demographic advantage results in a positive correlation between species age and abundance, as found in the Panamanian tropical forest community.

Leaf nitrogen content (δ) coordinates with total canopy N and leaf area index (LAI) to maximize whole-crown carbon (C) gain, but the constraints and contributions of within-species plasticity to this phenomenon are poorly understood. Here, we introduce a game theoretic, physiologically based community model of height-structured competition between late-successional tree species. Species are constrained by an increasing, but saturating, relationship between photosynthesis and leaf N per unit leaf area. Higher saturating rates carry higher fixed costs. For a given whole-crown N content, a C gain-maximizing compromise exists between δ and LAI. With greater whole-crown N, both δ and LAI increase within species. However, a shift in community composition caused by reduced understory light at high soil N availability (which competitively favors species with low leaf costs and consequent low optimal δ) counteracts the within-species response, such that community-level δ changes little with soil N availability. These model predictions provide a new explanation for the changes in leaf N per mass observed in data from three dominant broadleaf species in temperate deciduous forests of New England. Attempts to understand large-scale patterns in vegetation often omit competitive interactions and intraspecific plasticity, but here both are essential to an understanding of ecosystem-level patterns., (© 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.)

A well-documented pattern in the fossil record is a long-term decline in the origination rate of new taxa after diversity rebounds from a mass extinction. The mechanisms for this pattern remain elusive. In this article, we investigate the macroevolutionary predictions of an individual-based birth-death model (BDI model) where speciation and extinction rates emerge from population dynamics. We start with the simplest neutral model in which every individual has the same per capita rates of birth, death, and speciation. Although the prediction of the simplest neutral model agrees qualitatively with the fossil pattern, the predicted decline in per-species speciation rates is too fast to explain the long-term trend in fossil data. We thus consider models with variation among species in per capita rates of speciation and a suite of alternative assumptions about the heritability of speciation rate. The results show that interspecific variation in per capita speciation rate can induce differences among species in their ability to resist extinction because a low speciation rate confers a small but important demographic advantage. As a consequence, the model predicts an appropriately slow temporal decline in speciation rates, which provides a mechanistic explanation for the fossil pattern.

The leaf economics spectrum (LES) describes multivariate correlations that constrain leaf traits of plant species primarily to a single axis of variation if data are normalized by leaf mass. We show that these traits are approximately distributed proportional to leaf area instead of mass, as expected for a light- and carbon dioxide-collecting organ. Much of the structure in the mass-normalized LES results from normalizing area-proportional traits by mass. Mass normalization induces strong correlations among area-proportional traits because of large variation among species in leaf mass per area (LMA). The high LMA variance likely reflects its functional relationship with leaf life span. A LES that is independent of mass- or area-normalization and LMA reveals physiological relationships that are inconsistent with those in global vegetation models designed to address climate change.

Abstract The dependence of forest productivity and community composition on rainfall is the result of complex interactions at multiple scales, from the physiology of carbon gain and water loss to competition among individuals and species. In an effort to understand the role of these multiscale interactions in the dependence of forest structure on rainfall, we build a tractable model of individual plant competition for water and light. With game-theoretic analyses, we predict the dominant plant allocation strategy, forest productivity, and carbon storage. We find that the amount and timing of rainfall are critical to forest structure. Comparing two forests that differ only in the total time plants spend in water saturation, the model predicts that the wetter forest has fewer fine roots, more leaves, and more woody biomass than the drier forest. In contrast, if two forests differ only in the amount of water available during water limitation, the model predicts that the wetter forest has more fine roots than the drier forest and equivalent leaves and woody biomass. The difference in these responses to increases in water availability has significant implications for potential carbon sinks with rising atmospheric CO2. We predict that enhanced productivity from increased leaf-level water-use efficiency during water limitation will be allocated to fine roots if plants respond competitively, producing only a small and short-lived carbon sink.

Ricklefs and Renner (Reports, 27 January 2012, p. 464) found significant correlations for abundances and species diversities of families and orders of trees on different continents, which they suggested falsifies the neutral theory of biodiversity (NTB). We argue that the correlations among families and orders and the lack of correlations among genera can be explained by the NTB.

Natural gas is seen by many as the future of American energy: a fuel that can provide energy independence and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the process. However, there has also been confusion about the climate implications of increased use of natural gas for electric power and transportation. We propose and illustrate the use of technology warming potentials as a robust and transparent way to compare the cumulative radiative forcing created by alternative technologies fueled by natural gas and oil or coal by using the best available estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from each fuel cycle (i.e., production, transportation and use). We find that a shift to compressed natural gas vehicles from gasoline or diesel vehicles leads to greater radiative forcing of the climate for 80 or 280 yr, respectively, before beginning to produce benefits. Compressed natural gas vehicles could produce climate benefits on all time frames if the well-to-wheels CH(4) leakage were capped at a level 45-70% below current estimates. By contrast, using natural gas instead of coal for electric power plants can reduce radiative forcing immediately, and reducing CH(4) losses from the production and transportation of natural gas would produce even greater benefits. There is a need for the natural gas industry and science community to help obtain better emissions data and for increased efforts to reduce methane leakage in order to minimize the climate footprint of natural gas.

Nutrient limitation to net primary production (NPP) displays a diversity of patterns as ecosystems develop over a range of timescales. For example, some ecosystems transition from N limitation on young soils to P limitation on geologically old soils, whereas others appear to remain N limited. Under what conditions should N limitation and P limitation prevail? When do transitions between N and P limitation occur? We analyzed transient dynamics of multiple timescales in an ecosystem model to investigate these questions. Post-disturbance dynamics in our model are controlled by a cascade of rates, from plant uptake (very fast) to litter turnover (fast) to plant mortality (intermediate) to plant-unavailable nutrient loss (slow) to weathering (very slow). Young ecosystems are N limited when symbiotic N fixation (SNF) is constrained and P weathering inputs are high relative to atmospheric N deposition and plant N:P demand, but P limited under opposite conditions. In the absence of SNF, N limitation is likely to worsen through succession (decades to centuries) because P is mineralized faster than N. Over long timescales (centuries and longer) this preferential P mineralization increases the N:P ratio of soil organic matter, leading to greater losses of plant-unavailable N versus P relative to plant N:P demand. These loss dynamics favor N limitation on older soils despite the rising organic matter N:P ratio. However, weathering depletion favors P limitation on older soils when continual P inputs (e.g., dust deposition) are low, so nutrient limitation at the terminal equilibrium depends on the balance of these input and loss effects. If NPP switches from N to P limitation over long time periods, the transition time depends most strongly on the P weathering rate. At all timescales SNF has the capacity to overcome N limitation, so nutrient limitation depends critically on limits to SNF.

The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink of 2.4 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year(-1)) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 ± 0.7 Pg C year(-1) from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 ± 0.5 Pg C year(-1) partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 ± 0.5 Pg C year(-1). Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 ± 0.8 Pg C year(-1), with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks.