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This study aims at developing econometric models to manage the price risk of Dry and Wet Cocoa beans with the help of ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and VAR (Vector Auto Regressive). The monthly price of Cocoa beans is collected for the period starting from April 2009 to March 2020 from the office of CAMPCO Limited, Mangalore, and the ICE Cocoa futures price from the website of investing.com. The augmented dickey fuller test is used to test the stationarity of the series. The ACF and PACF correlograms are used to identify the tentative ARIMA model. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Schwarz criterion (SBIC), Sigma square, and adjusted R2 are used to decide on the optional AR and MA terms for the models. Durbin–Watson statistics and correlograms of the residuals are used to decide on the model’s goodness of fit. Identified optimal models were ARIMA (1, 1, 0) for the Dry Cocoa beans price series and ARIMA (1, 1, 2) for the Wet Cocoa beans price series. The multivariate VAR (1) model found that the US and London Cocoa futures prices traded on the ICE platform will influence the price of Dry Cocoa in India. This study will be helpful to forecast the price of Cocoa beans to manage the price risk, precisely for Cocoa traders, Chocolate manufacturers, Cocoa growers, and the government for planning and decision-making purposes.

TEZ11776 Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- Çukurova Üniversitesi, Adana, 2019. Kaynakça (s. 97-101) var. xviii, 107 s. : res. (bzs. rnk.), tablo ; 29 cm. Tüm gelişmekte olan ülkelerde olduğu gibi, Gabon’da da gelirden gıdaya ayrılan pay önemlidir. Gıdaya erişim birçok faktör tarafından etkilenmektedir. Başlıca faktörlerden biri de fiyat dalgalanmalarıdır. Fiyat dalgalanmaları hem tüketicileri hem de üreticileri etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmada seçilmiş on iki tarım ürününün yıllık ve aylık fiyat dalgalanmaları analiz edilmektedir. Ayrıca Gabon’da gıda fiyatları ile ilgili sorunların daha iyi ele alınabilmesi için öneriler geliştirilmektedir. Çalışmada kullanılacak ikincil veriler Gabon Kalkınma Destek Enstitüsü’nden (IGAD) sağlanmıştır. Elde edilen veriler seçilmiş on iki tarım ürününün Libreville piyasasındaki tüketici fiyatları olup 2005 ile 2015 arasındaki dönemi kapsamaktadır. Veriler SPSS ve Excel yazılımları ile analiz edilmiş, çeşitli trend modelleri yanı sıra bazı temel istatistik hesaplamalar yapılmıştır. Sonuçlar, genel olarak, Libreville piyasasında ürün fiyatlarının oldukça istikrarsız olduğunu ve amarant ile marul dışındaki ürün fiyatlarının yıldan yıla arttığını göstermektedir. Temel gıda maddeleri (manyok ve yemeklik muz) fiyatlarının diğer ürünlere göre daha olumsuz etkilendiği görülmüştür. Aylık dalgalanmalar da analiz edilmiş ve fiyatların Mayıs ile Kasım arasında daha yüksek olduğu gözlenmiştir. Çevrimsel hareketler de analiz edilmiştir. Eldeki verilerin imkân verdiği ölçüde fiyat hareketlerinin gerisindeki nedenler açıklanmıştır. Tüm bulgular, fiyatların daha yakından izlenmesi ve arzın yerel olarak arttırılması için iyi bir veri toplama ve finansman sisteminin kurulması gerektiğini göstermektedir. In Gabon, as in all developing countries, the share of income allocated to food is very important. Access to food is influenced by many factors. One of those major factors is price fluctuations. Price fluctuations affect both producers and consumers. This study aims at analyzing annual and monthly price fluctuations of selected twelve agricultural products. It also formulates some suggestions to help better deal with the problems related to food prices in Gabon. To conduct this study, secondary data were obtained from the Gabonese Institute for Development Support (IGAD). Data obtained were consumer prices of selected twelve agricultural commodities in Libreville market and covers the years of 2005-2015. Data were analyzed employing SPSS and Excel software and several trend models were developed, together with some basic statistical calculations. The results showed that in general, the product prices in Libreville market were very unstable and constantly increasing during the study period, with the exception of amaranth and lettuce. The prices of staple foods (manioc and plantain) were found to be affected more adversely than the others. Monthly fluctuations were also analyzed and prices were found higher between May and October. Cyclical movements were also analyzed. Reasons behind price movements were explained as the data in hand allowed. All the findings lead to several suggestions for establishment of a good data collection and financing system in order to monitor prices more closely, and to increase supply locally.

Bu çalışmanın iki temel amacı vardır. Birincisi, Türkiye’de döviz piyasalarında yaşanan fiyat hareketlerinin ölçülmesidir. İkincisi, serbest piyasa koşullarında işlem gören döviz piyasaları için normalüstü getirinin olup olmadığının belirlenmesidir. Yirmi altı yabancı para birimi için 2014-2016 yıllarını kapsayan araştırma döneminde günlük veriler kullanılmıştır. Çalışma iki aşamadan oluşmaktadır. Birinci aşamada, tanımlayıcı istatistikler vardır. İkinci aşamada, dört bileşenden elde edilen sonuçlar hesaplanmıştır. Sonuçlar karmadır. Bu nedenden, döviz piyasalarının etkin veya etkin olmadığını söylemek zordur., This study has two main objectives. First is to being measured the experiment of price movements in Turkey currency markets. Secondis to determine whether or not there is an abnormal return, or in another word, anomaly, in the trading free market for currency markets. We used the daily data’sfor 26foreign currencies which is cover research periods between 2014 and 2016 years.Study consists of two stages. In the first stage, there are descriptive statistics. In the second stage which is consists of four components were calculated. The results are mixed. For this reason, it is difficult to say the currency markets are efficient or inefficient.

The paper investigates the relevance of the exchange rate on the reaction function of the central banks of 24 emerging market economies for the period 2000Q1 to 2015Q2. This is done by first employing fixed-effects ordinary least squares and then system generalized method of the moments techniques. Under fixed effects, the exchange rate is found to be an important determinant in the reaction function of emerging market economies. Allowing for the endogeneity of inflation, output gap, and exchange rate, the exchange rate remains a positive and significant determinant, but less quantitatively relevant across inflation-targeting countries. When the sample is partitioned into targeting and nontargeting countries, the exchange rate remains relevant in the reaction function of the latter group. The results remain robust to splitting the sample at the time of the financial crisis of 2007–09 and suggest that, after the crisis, the central banks of emerging market economies responded only to inflation movements in the interest rate reaction function.

After 2005, commodity prices experienced their longest and broadest boom since World War II. Agricultural prices have now come down considerably since their 2011 peak, but are still 40 percent higher in real terms than their 2000 lows. This paper briefly addresses the main arguments on the causes of the agricultural price cycle. It broadens the scope of analysis by focusing on six agricultural commodities, and identifies the relative weights of key quantifiable drivers of their prices. It concludes that increases in real income negatively affect real agricultural prices, as predicted by Engel's Law. Energy prices matter most (not surprisingly, given the energy-intensive nature of agriculture), followed by stock-to-use ratios and, to a lesser extent, exchange rate movements. The cost of capital affects prices only marginally, probably because it not only influences demand, but also evokes a supply response.

India has pursued an active food security policy for many years, using a combination of trade policy interventions, public distribution of food staples, and assistance to farmers through minimum support prices defended by public stocks. This policy has been quite successful in stabilizing staple food prices, but at a high cost, and with potential risks of unmanageable stock accumulation. Based on a rational expectations storage model representing the Indian wheat market and its relation to the rest of the world, this paper analyzes the cost and welfare implications of this policy and unpacks the contribution of its different elements. To analyze alternative policies, social welfare is assumed to include an objective of price stabilization and optimal policies corresponding to this objective are assessed. Considering fully optimal policies under commitment as well as optimal simple rules, it is shown that adopting simple rules can achieve most of the gains from fully optimal policies, with both potentially allowing for lower stockholding levels and costs.

Agriculture is among the most risk-prone sectors in the economies of Central Asia. Production shocks from weather, pests and diseases and adverse movements in agricultural product and input prices not only impact farmers and agri-business firms, but can also strain government finances. Some of these risks are small and localized and can be managed by producers. Others are the result of more severe, exogenous shocks outside agriculture or outside the country, which require a broader response. Failure to respond adequately to these more severe risks leads to a perpetual cycle of ‘shock-recovery-shock’, which reinforces poverty traps and compromises long-term growth. The agriculture sector’s exposure to production and price risk is increasing. Climate change is increasing production risks in the short to medium-term by increasing the frequency and severity of droughts and floods and in the longer-term by reducing the availability of water for irrigation due to accelerated glacial melt. The modernization and commercialization of agricultural production and processing, which is critical for sector growth, also raises the sector’s exposure to price risk at a time of high volatility on international markets for agricultural commodities. An effective response to these risks requires a broader, more integrated approach to risk management than the current system of ex-ante, public sector activity associated with crop and livestock disease and ad hoc, ex-post emergency responses to local disasters. Measures to strengthen risk mitigation will need to be mainstreamed into sector development and investment programs, additional human and financial resources will need to be allocated to the public institutions responsible for ex-ante and ex-post risk management, and the potential for transfer (insurance) mechanisms will need to be clarified and developed where feasible. Given the limited human and financial resources available for public sector activity, a clear sense of the priorities for agriculture risk management is also required, together with a balanced view of the respective roles of public and private sector stakeholders.

Agriculture is among the most risk-prone sectors in the economies of Central Asia. Production shocks from weather, pests and diseases and adverse movements in agricultural product and input prices not only impact farmers and agri-business firms, but can also strain government finances. Some of these risks are small and localized and can be managed by producers. Others are the result of more severe, exogenous shocks outside agriculture or outside the country, which require a broader response. Failure to respond adequately to these more severe risks leads to a perpetual cycle of ‘shock-recovery-shock’, which reinforces poverty traps and compromises long-term growth. The agriculture sector’s exposure to production and price risk is increasing. Climate change is increasing production risks in the short to medium-term by increasing the frequency and severity of droughts and floods and in the longer-term by reducing the availability of water for irrigation due to accelerated glacial melt. The modernization and commercialization of agricultural production and processing, which is critical for sector growth, also raises the sector’s exposure to price risk at a time of high volatility on international markets for agricultural commodities. An effective response to these risks requires a broader, more integrated approach to risk management than the current system of ex-ante, public sector activity associated with crop and livestock disease and ad hoc, ex-post emergency responses to local disasters. Measures to strengthen risk mitigation need to be mainstreamed into sector development and investment programs, additional human and financial resources need to be allocated to the public institutions responsible for ex-ante and ex-post risk management, and the potential for transfer (insurance) mechanisms will need to be clarified and developed where feasible. Given the limited human and financial resources available for public sector activity, a clear sense of the priorities for agriculture risk management is also required, together with a balanced view of the respective roles of public and private sector stakeholders.

Income growth in emerging economies has often been cited as a key driver of the past decade’s com-modity price boom—the longest and broadest boom since World War II. This paper shows that income has a negative and highly significant effect on real food commodity prices, a finding that is consistent with Engel’s Law and Kindleberger’s thesis, the predecessors of the Prebisch-Singer hypothe-sis. The paper also shows that, in the long run, income influences real food prices mainly through the manufacturing price channel (the deflator), hence weakening the view that income growth exerts strong upward pressure on food prices. Other (short-term) drivers of food prices include energy costs, inventories, and monetary conditions.

This study investigates the role of domestic and external shocks in business cycle fluctuations in Paraguay during 1991–2012. Time-series methods and a structural model-based approach are used to conduct an integrated analysis of business cycles. First, structural vector autoregression is used to assess the role played by external factors and domestic shocks in driving fluctuations in gross domestic product through impulse response functions and variance decompositions. The analysis finds that external shocks such as terms of trade, world interest rate and foreign demand account for over 50 percent of real gross domestic product fluctuations. Given Paraguay’s strong dependence on agriculture, an analysis is also done for the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors separately. The analysis finds that non-agricultural gross domestic product is to a large extent driven by external shocks, which account for over 50 percent of its volatility. In contrast, the volatility in agricultural gross domestic product is primarily due to shocks to domestic variables, mainly shocks to agricultural output. A further difference between the sectors is that shocks to government consumption are more important for agricultural gross domestic product, while shocks to the domestic real interest rate play a larger role in the volatility of non-agricultural gross domestic product. Second, the paper investigates the sources of business cycle fluctuations through the lens of a neoclassical growth model with an agricultural and non-agricultural sector. The analysis finds some signs of improvements, as labor market distortions have declined, firms’ access to credit improved, and agricultural efficiency rose over time. Nevertheless, challenges remain, as gaps in labor and capital returns between agriculture and non-agriculture remain large, efficiency in the non-agricultural sector shows no signs of improvement, and households’ access to finance has deteriorated.

This study quantifies the relationship between Tanzanian and external maize markets while also accounting for domestic influences. It concludes that external influences on domestic prices originate from regional, rather than global, markets. It also shows that, compared to external factors, domestic factors exert a greater influence on Tanzanian maize markets. Further, the mechanisms through which trade policies influence maize markets involve interactions with both external market shocks and domestic weather shocks. Overall, it provides evidence that the intermittent imposition of export bans in Tanzania has had adverse impacts on its maize markets, and consequently, on the development of its agrarian economy.

This background note focuses on the use of bond buybacks and bond exchanges in the domestic government securities market. The objective is to provide an overview of their functions and of the procedures that facilitate their implementation, using country examples as illustrations.

This report highlights recent economic updates in Bangladesh as of April 2015. Economic growth in Bangladesh was gaining momentum in the first half of FY15. Capacity utilization improved and investments were showing some signs of recovery. This growth was also job-friendly. The 12-monthly-moving average inflation decelerated from 7.6 percent in February 2014 to 6.8 percent in February 2015. The resilience of the Bangladesh economy continues to be tested by faltering political stability, weak global markets, and structural constraints. These are inhibiting the economy s income growth as well as progress on shared prosperity. Despite the emergence of a $1.3 billion deficit in the current account in the first seven months of FY15, the surplus in the overall balance of payments has been sustained, leading to continued accumulation of official foreign exchange reserves to prevent nominal exchange rate appreciation. Reserves are at a comfortable level at over 6 months of imports of goods and services. Fiscal policy has remained consistent with macroeconomic stability. Tax revenue growth has been weaker than targeted while expenditure have also been short due as usual to an implementation shortfall. The projected recovery in global growth, particularly in the United States and the Euro Zone, and continued softness in international commodity prices, bode well for Bangladesh. The country will need to restore political stability and implement faster structural reforms to capitalize on these opportunities. The potential GDP growth rate is on a declining path due to declining labor force growth and stagnant productivity growth, as well as the rate of capital accumulation. Raising the low Female Labor Force Participation (FLFP) rate offers on opportunity to boost the economy s potential growth rate. Moving forward, the biggest challenge remains ensuring durable political stability. This is a precondition for accelerated, inclusive, and sustainable growth.

Panama's economic growth has been at the top of the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region in recent years. The country s rapid growth has been largely pro-poor and translated into significant poverty reduction. The new Administration is well placed to tackle these challenges, with its commitment to maintaining an open and diversified economy and redressing social imbalances. Looking ahead, the country s main challenges are to maintain the current growth performance and ensure that its benefits are extended to all. The World Bank Group s (WBG) new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) seeks to support Panama s continued high growth, while ensuring inclusion and opportunities for marginalized groups, and bolstering resilience and sustainability. These themes are highlighted as priorities in the Government s 2014-2019 Strategic Development Plan (SDP) and in the WBG s Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD). The CPF seeks to maximize over a six-year period, the comparative advantages of the WBG, through packages of innovative public and private financing options based on cutting edge global knowledge and experience.

Over the past dozen years, policymakers have largely abandoned long-standing popular approaches for addressing risk in agriculture without fully resolving the question of how best to manage the negative consequences of volatile agricultural markets. The article reviews the transition from past policies and describes current approaches that distinguish between the trade-related fiscal consequences of commodity market volatility and the consequences of price and production risks for vulnerable rural households and communities. Current policies rely more heavily on markets, even though markets for risk are incomplete in numerous ways. The benefits and limitations of market-based instruments are examined in the context of risk management strategies, and innovative approaches to extend the reach of risk markets are discussed.

This article examines the impacts of China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on prices in its agricultural sector. The analysis uses a new methodology to estimate nominal protection rates in China's agricultural sector before its accession to the WTO. These new measures account for differences in commodity quality within China and between China and world markets. The analysis shows that some of China's agricultural commodities are well above world market prices and others are well below. The article also assesses market integration and efficiency in China. It finds high degrees of integration between coastal and inland markets and between regional and village markets. The remarkable improvements in market performance in recent years mean that if increased imports or exports affect China's domestic price near the border, producers throughout most of China will feel the price shifts.

We survey the main applications of algorithmic (Kolmogorov) complexity to the problem of price dynamics in financial markets. We stress the differences between these works and put forward a general algorithmic framework in order to highlight its potential for financial data analysis. This framework is “general” in the sense that it is not constructed on the common assumption that price variations are predominantly stochastic in nature.

Most studies on local rice in Nigeria were geared toward increasing production, consumption or competitiveness. Achieving these requires a study on extent of pricing contacts in the market for local rice. Secondary data consisting of urban monthly retail price series in the six southwest states of Nigeria were collected and analyzed. Analytical techniques included Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Johansen Co-integration and Granger Causality models. Empirical results indicated that growth in retail prices was highest in 2004 and in Ogun (48.69%) and Ondo (45.36%) implying that local rice was more costly in these states. Retail prices were more volatile in Lagos (37.3%) while the least price volatility was recorded in Ogun (30.4%). The ADF test showed all price series were non-stationary at their levels but were stationary after first-difference. Pair-wise market integration model indicated that prices were co-integrated at either 1% or 5% levels of significance connoting high degree of marketing efficiency. Multiple co-integration model also indicated five co-integrating equations in six, at 5% level thus validating the result of pair-wise market co-integration tests. Granger causality model revealed that the supply-deficient markets in Lagos and Osun were driving prices in other states. These results may have arisen from the storability of rice and closeness of the market locations. Despite this very high level of linkage, there is the need for all stakeholders in the market to continue to effectively perform their roles so that economic benefits derivable from this scenario of strong pricing contacts can be fully realized and sustained.

What do we know about the links between economic development and corporate governance in emerging markets? Stijn Claessens and Burcin Yurtoglu have sifted through scores of academic studies on various countries, sectors, and business organizations - from state-owned enterprises to publicly listed companies - to determine how corporate governance can influence economic development and well being, and what is needed to promote good practices. The Focus 10 draws on new evidence that has become available since Focus 1: Corporate Governance and Development was published in 2003. While the paper reviews research literature, it is written to be accessible to the nonacademic audience: board members, investors, government regulators, development professionals, and other CG practitioners. Research findings sited in the Focus include: 1) improved corporate governance practices increase firm share prices; 2) operational performance is higher in better corporate governance countries; 3) well governed companies have less volatile stock prices in times of crisis; 4) companies with boards composed of a higher fraction of outsider or independent directors usually have a higher market valuation; 5) improvements in corporate governance quality lead to higher GDP growth, productivity growth, and the increased ratio of investment to GDP; 6) when a country's overall corporate governance and property rights systems are weak, voluntary and market corporate governance mechanisms have limited effectiveness; 7) large, more concentrated ownership can be beneficial, unless there is a disparity of control and cash flow rights; 8) the quality of shareholder protection positively correlates with the development of countries' capital markets; and 9) better corporate governance leads to a better developed financial system. The paper concludes by identifying several main policy and research issues that require further study. For example, more research is needed on family-owned, state-owned or controlled firms that predominate in many sectors and economies. For more publications on IFC Sustainability please visit www.ifc.org/sustainabilitypublications.

Contribution to the G20 Commodity Markets Sub Working Group Though well-established in the commercial sector, the use of market-based price risk management is not widespread in the public sector, particularly by sovereigns. Recent volatility in energy and food prices, however, has awakened the interest of some governments to learn more about how they can either use these tools, or foster supportive environment where these tools can be used by local supply chain actors. Equally important is ensuring that non-price related risks are isolated, monitored, and managed independent of direct price exposure. This note reviews lessons learned from recent efforts to advance risk management strategies in countries vulnerable to food and energy price shocks. It focuses specifically on the use of market-based risk management approaches and use by sovereigns. For governments concerned about the risk of food price shocks, the fiscal impact is equally complicated as governments may be concerned about the impact of rising food prices on consumers, the need to finance, and potentially supply, subsidies or social safety nets for vulnerable populations or, in extreme cases, humanitarian operations. In both cases, the costs of budget uncertainty and the need to finance responses in the event of a shock can be significant. Finally, though not typically used to manage specific intra-annual or intra-seasonal price exposures, commodity-linked loans or bonds can also be used to manage exposure to price shocks on a more macro level.

The Malaysian economy grew robustly in 2011, outperforming forecasts. Growth was driven by domestic demand. Public consumption picked up more than expected toward the end of the year and fixed investment was also buoyant on higher investments by public and private companies. Private consumption spending remained strong, sustained by solid consumer credit, civil service bonus payments, and firm commodity prices benefiting smallholders. Inventories were a drag on growth as post- financial crisis restocking was completed. There is momentum to the reform agenda, but implementation could be accelerated. The government's transformation programs registered notable progress, but the challenge now is to go beyond quick wins and accelerate the implementation of more difficult, but critical, structural reforms that lie at the core of transforming the economy into a high-income one. Implementation can be assisted by increasing the coordination of related reform efforts (such as safety nets and education), building capacity within the civil service to lead reforms, and working towards consensus in key areas such as educational reform, subsidy rationalization and broadening the tax base.

Transmission of international food prices to domestic prices is essential to pursue comparative-advantage-based, sustainable agricultural production, and to ensure domestic production responds to global food scarcity or surplus. (i) International prices are opportunity costs for most price-taking developing countries and are crucial in determining an efficient distribution of domestic resources. When the long-term trend of international prices is transmitted slowly and imperfectly to domestic markets, consumers and producers make decisions based on prices that do not represent their real social costs and benefits. There is strong empirical evidence from both developing and developed countries that any large, sustained deviation of domestic prices from world prices in either direction leads to substantially sub-optimal outcomes and slows the rate of economic growth; and (ii) as international food prices reflect global scarcity or surplus, their transmission to domestic prices can help improved the global responsiveness of the food system to shocks. The recent increase in the volatility of international food prices is, therefore, a big concern. These volatile and unpredictable prices may undermine incentives for farmers to respond to high price levels with the critical increase in production needed to bring food prices down. In practical terms, farmers decide what to plant and countries deciding when to import face uncertainty in the likely distribution of world food prices and greater consequences when using past price levels and distributions to guide current decisions. This uncertainty keeps food prices high for a longer period, leading to fundamental food security risks for consumers and governments. To achieve more efficient domestic price formation, policy actions need to focus on (i) strengthening the integration of local markets with international markets (through investments in infrastructure and market-oriented policies), especially local markets that are more volatile than international markets, (ii) reducing global food price volatility, including through more discipline on trade policy, and (iii) strengthening safety nets to rapidly and cost-effectively protect the poor and vulnerable from the food price spikes.

This study aims to improve our understanding of the extent and speed of the transmission of international cereal prices to local markets in developing countries. We analyse two samples of price transmission (PT) estimates, one extracted from a comprehensive literature sample of 31 published papers and studies on cereal price transmission and one containing of own estimates of cereal PT using the FAO’s GIEWS dataset. We also present the results of a non-parametric analysis of PT in which we analyse the share of periods in which domestic and international prices have jointly increased or decreased. We find a higher share of cointegrated commodity market pairs in the literature sample (79% compared to 43%). This may be due to publication bias. Cointegration is more prevalent for maize market pairs and less prevalent for rice market pairs. Both the literature and the GIEWS-based estimates point to average long-run PT coefficients of roughly 0.75 and average short-run adjustment parameters of roughly 0.09-0.11. In most cases domestic prices adjust to deviations from the long-run price relationship, but international prices do not. The only notable exception to this rule is rice, which suggests that the determination of international rice prices differs fundamentally from the determination of international wheat and maize prices. In a subsequent meta-regression analysis we measure how much of the variation in the samples of PT estimates can be explained by country- or product-specific factors. However, this analysis fails to generate compelling results. An analysis of domestic price volatility reveals that median volatility has increased since July 2007.