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Many previous studies have examined the influence of Arctic sea ice on the weather/climate of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the precursor signals of Arctic sea ice regarding East Asian winter low temperatures, which are important for climate prediction, have received little attention. This study identified an out‐of‐phase relationship between the autumn sea ice area of the Kara Sea (SICK) and subsequent winter minimum temperature in Northeast China (NEC) during 1979–2019, that is, diminished SICK facilitates cooling anomalies at NEC. Further results showed that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) acts as a bridge in the linkage between the autumn SICK and minimum temperature in NEC. Diminished autumn SICK leads to a weakened polar vortex in both the troposphere and the stratosphere in the subsequent winter through vertical propagation of planetary waves, contributing to a negative phase of the AO. Accordingly, the SICK is followed by anomalous Rossby wave train that originates from Mediterranean Sea and propagates eastward to Northeast Asia. Thus, the SICK has substantially influences on the Mongolia cyclone and minimum temperature in NEC by modulation of the AO. Moreover, the shrinking SICK could lead to the upper‐level decelerated westerly anomalies at East Asia through altering the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient and induce negative minimum temperature anomalies at NEC. The results of this study have importance regarding the prediction of low temperature anomalies over NEC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Skillful prediction of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) eddy-driven jet is crucial for representation of mid-to-high-latitude SH climate variability. In the austral spring-to-summer months, the jet and the stratospheric polar vortex variabilities are strongly coupled. Since the vortex is more predictable and influenced by long-lead drivers 1 month or more ahead, the stratosphere is considered a promising pathway for improving forecasts in the region on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. However, a quantification of this predictability has been lacking, as most modeling studies address only one of the several interacting drivers at a time, while statistical analyses quantify association but not skill. This methodological gap is addressed through a knowledge-driven probabilistic causal network approach, quantified with seasonal ensemble hindcast data. The approach enables to quantify the jet's long-range predictability arising from known late-winter drivers, namely, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), upward wave activity flux, and polar night jet oscillation, mediated by the vortex variability in spring. Network-based predictions confirm the vortex as determinant for skillful jet predictions, both for the jet's poleward shift in late spring and its equatorward shift in early summer. ENSO, IOD, late-winter wave activity flux, and polar night jet oscillation only provide moderate prediction skill to the vortex. This points to early spring submonthly variability as important for determining the vortex state leading up to its breakdown, creating a predictability bottleneck for the jet. The method developed here offers a new avenue to quantify the predictability provided by multiple, interacting drivers on S2S time scales. Significance Statement: Predictions of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet stream are crucial for skillful forecasts of the austral mid-to-high latitudes. Several oceanic and atmospheric phenomena could, if better represented in models, improve spring-to-summer jet predictions on subseasonal to seasonal time scales. However, the combined potential skill arising from the inclusion of such phenomena has not been quantified. This study does so by using a probabilistic causal network model, representing the connections between those drivers and the jet with conditional probabilities, trained on large sets of model data. The stratospheric polar vortex is confirmed as crucial predictor of jet variability but is itself hard to predict a month in advance due to submonthly variability, creating a predictability bottleneck for the jet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the JRA-55 reanalysis data, the persistent downward impacts of the weak stratospheric polar vortex (WPV) events are examined. The WPV events with persistent tropospheric impacts are selected and classified into two groups according to whether there is a phase switch of the surface Arctic Oscillation (AO) around the onset day of the cases. The results suggested a one-month longer duration of the tropospheric impacts for the cases with preexisting negative AO anomalies in the troposphere (i.e., the −AO-pre-WPV events), than the cases with a phase switch of the surface AO from positive to negative (i.e., the +AO-pre-WPV events). The connections between the precursory surface AO anomalies and the following downward propagation are found to be closely related to the different events background state of the two types of events. A strong signal of the east quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) at 30 hPa is observed during the −AO-pre-WPV events, which induces an anomalous poleward propagation of the planetary waves and convergence anomalies of the wave flux in the lower stratosphere. This slow-changing QBO signal exerts continuous wave forcing in the polar region of the lower stratosphere during the −AO-pre-WPV events and delays the recovery of the polar vortex, leading to the long-persistent tropospheric impacts. Moreover, after the background state of each independent case is removed, the preexisting negative surface AO for the −AO-pre-WPV events also disappears. However, the downward propagation during the +AO-pre-WPV events has not been affected with the events background removed, probably because the QBO signal is quite weak. The results reveal the possible role of the precursory surface AO and the background QBO on the downward propagation of the WPV events, which may offer useful information for the subseasonal prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) have an individual impact on the northern winter stratospheric polar vortex. This study considered the joint impact of ENSO and QBO using the reanalysis and observational data. The combinations of ENSO and QBO winds are split into four groups, El Niño-easterly QBO, El Niño-westerly QBO, La Niña-easterly QBO, and La Niña-westerly QBO, and the impact of each joint group is compared with the linear superposition of the individual impacts of ENSO and QBO with the interference from other factors removed. On average, the stratospheric polar vortex exhibits weakening in the pure El Niño and easterly QBO composites and exhibits strengthening in the pure La Niña and westerly QBO composites as compared with the climatology. The observed joint ENSO and QBO signals in the Arctic stratosphere are mostly a linearly superposed combination between them. This interference of QBO and ENSO's impacts is also observed in the tropospheric circulation and tropical convections, which are related to teleconnection in the upper troposphere controlling the amount of planetary waves entering stratosphere to further impact Artic stratospheric polar vortex. Although El Niño and easterly QBO cooperate to weaken the stratospheric polar vortex, and La Niña and westerly QBO cooperate to strengthen, but their impact on the tropospheric North Pacific circulation and tropical rainfall are opposite with signs reversed. As a consequence, the joint effect of El Niño-easterly QBO/La Niña-westerly QBO on the stratosphere is stronger than that of El Niño-westerly QBO/La Niña-easterly QBO. However, the joint impact of El Niño-easterly QBO on the North Pacific troposphere and tropical rainfall is weaker than that of El Niño-westerly QBO. Further analysis on the wave activities and Brewer-Dobson circulation also confirms the linear interference between effects of ENSO and QBO in the stratosphere, although this linearity is less evident in the troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrophobic membranes infused with mixed solvents including a low polar solvent and a specific solvent can efficiently separate analytes from blood upon applying a voltage. In contrast, membranes infused with a specific solvent alone show significantly reduced separation efficiencies for blood samples. Infusion of a low polar solvent is of importance for achieving antifouling ability of membranes for biological sample pretreatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The representation of the Arctic stratospheric circulation and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during the period 1981–2019 in a 40-yr Chinese global reanalysis dataset (CRA-40) is evaluated by comparing two widely used reanalysis datasets, ERA-5 and MERRA-2. CRA-40 demonstrates a comparable performance with ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing the winter and spring circulation in the lower and middle Arctic stratosphere. Specifically, differences in the climatological polar-mean temperature and polar night jet among the three reanalyses are within ±0.5 K and ±0.5 m s−1, respectively. The onset dates of the stratospheric sudden warming and stratospheric final warming events at 10 hPa in CRA-40, together with the dynamics and circulation anomalies during the onset process of warming events, are nearly identical to the other two reanalyses with slight differences. By contrast, the CRA-40 dataset demonstrates a deteriorated performance in describing the QBO below 10 hPa compared to the other two reanalysis products, manifested by the larger easterly biases of the QBO index, the remarkably weaker amplitude of the QBO, and the weaker wavelet power of the QBO period. Such pronounced biases are mainly concentrated in the period 1981–98 and largely reduced by at least 39% in 1999–2019. Thus, particular caution is needed in studying the QBO based on CRA-40. All three reanalyses exhibit greater disagreement in the upper stratosphere compared to the lower and middle stratosphere for both the polar region and the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mid‐latitude extreme cold outbreaks are associated with disruptions of the polar vortex, which often happen abruptly in connection to a sudden stratospheric warming. Understanding global warming (particularly Arctic amplification) impacts on forecasting such events is challenging for the scientific community. Here we apply clustering analysis on the Northern Annular Mode to identify surface precursors and the governing mechanisms causing polar vortex disruption events. Two clusters of vortex breakdown emerge; 65% of the events, mainly displacements, are associated with high‐latitude Ocean warming in the North Pacific and in Barents‐Kara Sea. Such warming may cause large scale modifications of the tropospheric flow that favors a slowdown of the stratospheric vortex. The persistence of Ocean surface temperature patterns favors polar vortex disruptions, potentially improving prediction skills at the sub‐seasonal to seasonal time scales. Plain Language Summary: Extreme winter weather is linked to cold arctic outbreaks when the polar air mass spills frigid air to mid‐latitudes. This phenomenon often follows weak polar vortex (in extreme cases a Sudden Stratospheric Warming) episodes. Forecasting such events is challenging as many climatic components can be involved. In this study, it is found that 65% of the events start with a certain surface air mass distribution (Low Pressure over the North Pacific, High Pressure over Eurasia). Such distribution is triggered by high latitude ocean warming corresponding to warm temperature anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean and Sea Ice loss in Barents‐Kara seas. This result helps predicting the probability of polar vortex disruptions in winter, potentially leading to enhanced sub‐seasonal to seasonal cold outbreaks forecast. Key Points: Around 65% of weak polar vortex (WPV) events are preceded by tropospheric pressure anomaliesHigh‐latitude ocean warming explains tropospheric air mass modification, which favors upward wave flux that disrupts the stratosphereProbabilistic forecast of WPV events is possible using an index of high‐latitude ocean warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) injected a huge amount (∼150 Tg) of water vapor (H2O) into the stratosphere, along with small amount of SO2. An off‐line 3‐D chemical transport model (CTM) successfully reproduces the spread of the injected H2O through October 2023 as observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder. Dehydration in the 2023 Antarctic polar vortex caused the first substantial (∼20 Tg) removal of HTHH H2O from the stratosphere. The CTM indicates that this process will dominate removal of HTHH H2O for the coming years, giving an overall e‐folding timescale of 4 years; around 25 Tg of the injected H2O is predicted to still remain in the stratosphere by 2030. Following relatively low Antarctic column ozone in midwinter 2023 due to transport effects, additional springtime depletion due to H2O‐related chemistry was small and maximized at the vortex edge (10 DU in column). Plain Language Summary: Around 150 Tg (150 million tons) of water vapor was injected into the stratosphere during the eruption of Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas and this increase is expected to have a warming effect in the troposphere, as well causing perturbations in stratospheric chemistry and aerosols. We use an atmospheric model to study the residence time of this excess water vapor and its impact on the recent Antarctic ozone hole. The model performance is evaluated by comparison with satellite measurements. Wintertime dehydration in the Antarctic stratosphere in 2023 is found to be an important mechanism for removal of the volcanic water from the stratosphere. However, the overall removal rate is predicted to be slow; around 25 Tg (17%) is still present in 2030. The direct impact of the excess water vapor on ozone via chemical processes in the Antarctic ozone hole in 2023 is small. Key Points: Antarctic dehydration is a major removal pathway of stratospheric H2O injected from Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) eruptionHTHH H2O caused small (up to 10 DU) additional chemical ozone depletion in 2023 Antarctic springModel indicates e‐folding timescale of 4 years for removal of HTHH H2O from stratosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several warm‐core cyclones in the Mediterranean, which were analyzed in the literature, are studied using ERA5 reanalysis, to identify the environment where they develop and distinguish tropical‐like cyclones from non‐tropical warm‐core cyclones. Initially, the cyclone phase space is analyzed to distinguish the cyclones that have a symmetrical deep warm core. Subsequently, the temporal evolution of several parameters is considered, including the distance between the area of maximum tangential wind speed and the cyclone center. Some differences are observed between the cyclones analyzed: one category of cyclones develops in areas of moderate‐low baroclinicity and intense convective processes, as occurs in tropical cyclones. Another group of cyclones develops in a strongly baroclinic environment with weak convective processes and intense vertical wind shear, as occurs in warm seclusions. Two cyclones, showing similarities with polar lows, are also identified. Plain Language Summary: Mediterranean tropical‐like cyclones (TLCs) are damaging weather systems, which form over the Mediterranean Sea, resembling tropical cyclones. These cyclones can drive important socio‐economic losses in coastal areas. However, due to their small size and the relatively recent investigation of these cyclones, there is currently no robust categorization of which Mediterranean cyclones can be considered TLC. Therefore, in this work, we propose a method to differentiate cyclones that attain actual tropical‐like characteristics in part of their lifetime, as they develop a warm core through intense convective processes. The main results of this study show that part of the analyzed cyclones have features similar to tropical cyclones. Another group of cyclones has a behavior closer to extratropical cyclones with weak convective processes in an environment with intense vertical wind shear, as occurs in warm seclusions or polar lows. The results of this study propose a key to identify the Mediterranean cyclones that have tropical‐like characteristics. Key Points: A new method to detect cyclones with tropical‐like characteristics in the Mediterranean has been developedPart of the cyclones with deep warm core developed in low baroclinicity and with intense convective processes, as tropical cyclonesSome cyclones have weak convective processes and intense vertical wind shear environments, such as warm seclusions or polar lows [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2023 Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) maximum on 7 September was the lowest annual maximum in the satellite era (16.98 × 106 km2), with the largest contributions to the anomaly coming from the Ross (37.7%, −0.57 × 106 km2) and Weddell (32.9%, −0.49 × 106 km2) Seas. The SIE was low due to anomalously warm (>0.3°C) upper‐ocean temperatures combined with anomalously strong northerly winds impeding the ice advance during the fall and winter. Northerly winds of >12 ms−1 in the Weddell Sea occurred because of negative pressure anomalies over the Antarctic Peninsula, while those in the Ross Sea were associated with extreme blocking episodes off the Ross Ice Shelf. The Ross Sea experienced an unprecedented SIE decrease of −1.08 × 103 km2 d−1 from 1 June till the annual maximum. The passage of quasi‐stationary and explosive polar cyclones contributed to periods of southward ice‐edge shift in both sectors. Plain Language Summary: Sea ice provides a vital habitat for life in the Southern Ocean, and plays an important role in the ocean circulation, the dynamics of the Earth's climate, the biogeochemical cycle, and the regional ecosystem. Climatologically, Antarctic sea ice expands northwards from the continent each autumn and winter. However, in 2023 an unprecedented slow ice expansion occurred in the Southern Ocean ahead of the annual maximum on 7 September of 16.98 × 106 km2, which was 1.46 × 106 km2 below the long‐term average. In fact, the area covered by ice remained at a record low level every day from 21 April 2023 until 11 November 2023. Our findings suggest that an impact of upper‐ocean warming and changes in winds, combined with heat and moisture fluxes, extreme winds and high ocean waves associated with polar cyclones (storms), contributed to these record low ice conditions. In particular, cyclones caused episodes of exceptional slow ice expansion or even retreat, leading to negative ice anomalies. For instance, the ice‐edge in the Weddell Sea was moved southwards quickly in a few days (up to 256 km southward) with an ice area loss of ∼2.3 × 105 km2, equivalent to the size of United Kingdom. Key Points: The 2023 Antarctic sea ice extent maximum on 7 September (16.98 × 106 km2) was the lowest annual maximum in the satellite eraAnomalous upper‐ocean warming and strong northerly winds contributed to impeding the ice expansion in the Ross and Weddell SeasQuasi‐stationary and explosive polar cyclones contributed to periods of southward ice‐edge shift in both sectors [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A main source of regional climate change uncertainty is the large disparity across models in simulating the atmospheric circulation response to global warming. Using the latest suite of global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a storyline approach is adopted to derive physically plausible scenarios of Antarctic climate change for 2070–99, according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5. These storylines correspond to differences in the simulated amount of seasonal sea ice loss and either (i) the delay in the summertime stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) breakdown or (ii) wintertime SPV strengthening, which together constitute robust drivers of the response pattern to future climate change. Such changes combined are known to exert a strong control over the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet stream, which we quantify as collectively explaining up to 70% of the variance in jet response in summer and 35% in winter. For summer, the expected strengthening and displacement of the tropospheric jet stream varies between a ∼1 and 2 m s−1 increase and ∼2°–4° poleward shift, respectively, across storylines. In both seasons, a larger strengthening of the jet is correlated with less Antarctic warming. By contrast, the response in precipitation is more consistent but still strongly attenuated by large-scale dynamics. We find that an increase in high-latitude precipitation around Antarctica is more pronounced for storylines characterized by a greater poleward jet shift, particularly in summer. Our results highlight the usefulness of the storyline approach in illustrating model uncertainty and understanding the processes that determine the spread in projected Antarctic regional climate response. Significance Statement: Uncertainty in future climate predictions for the Antarctic is dominated by the unknown response of the large-scale (global) atmospheric circulation. In characterizing such uncertainty, plausible outcomes of climate response (storylines) are generated from the organization of model projections according to the amount of simulated seasonal sea ice loss and the delay in summertime breakdown/winter strengthening of the stratospheric westerly circulation (polar vortex). The intensity and location of the tropospheric jet stream is strongly dependent on both factors, which strongly influences the near-surface climate response over Antarctica. We find that the simulated amount that Antarctic air temperatures increase by in the future (to the end of the century) is intrinsically related to the projected intensification of the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric jet, varying by a factor of 2 or more across storylines for summer. Storylines with greater jet strengthening are associated with less Antarctic warming (reduced poleward advection of air masses from lower latitudes). Similar differences are found for changes in jet position, which we note has a much stronger control on mid- to high-latitude precipitation response. This includes both an enhanced wetting response around Antarctica and drying response farther equatorward, for storylines characterized by a greater poleward jet shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-latitude climate responses to Arctic sea ice loss remain unclear, partly because the atmospheric responses depend sensitively to the location of sea ice anomalies. Evaluating the role of regional Arctic sea ice extent anomalies is therefore essential to appreciate the extent of atmospheric responses. We investigated these responses but also the atmospheric precursors to regional Arctic sea ice extent anomalies in long pre-industrial control simulations from 36 CMIP6 climate models. This study examines changes in various atmospheric variables at different lead and lag times by performing a composite analysis between years of low and high sea ice extents in different Arctic seas. Stronger and more statistically significant relationships are found when the atmosphere leads to changes in sea ice than in the reverse direction, suggesting that in the CMIP6 models the atmosphere drives the sea ice rather than the opposite. The atmospheric circulation is found to be relatively insensitive to regional sea ice anomalies except in the Barents–Kara (BAKA) Seas, where the negative anomalies are followed by a robust negative winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern. Consistent with the so-called stratospheric pathway, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) is simulated 1 month prior to the NAO change and can be partially explained by the sea ice anomaly in BAKA in preceding months. The magnitude of this weakening in models depends on other factors, such as the Siberian snow cover, the El Niño–Southern oscillation, and the quasi-biennial oscillation. Moreover, the SPV and the NAO index responses scale approximately linearly with the magnitude of the BAKA sea ice anomaly. These results highlight the inter-model consistency of the role played by the BAKA sea ice extent anomaly for the atmospheric responses under pre-industrial conditions. In upcoming work, the sea ice loss in this region should therefore primarily be considered, but under future conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we considered the role of the dynamic barrier weakening in winter in polar ozone depletion from late winter to spring with the example of the Arctic polar vortex dynamics in 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 by the vortex delineation method using geopotential. The main characteristics (vortex area, wind speed along the vortex edge, temperature and ozone mass mixing ratio inside the vortex) were calculated using the ERA5 reanalysis data based on the fact that the Arctic polar vortex edge at the 50, 70 and 100 hPa levels is determined by the geopotential values 19.5×104, 17.5×104 and 15.4×104 m²/s², respectively. The geopotential values characterizing the polar vortex edge were determined from the maximum temperature gradient and maximum wind speed on average for 1979-2021. The dynamic barrier of the polar vortex contributes to lowering the temperature inside the vortex in the lower stratosphere and prevents the propagation of air masses into the vortex, creating conditions for ozone depletion from late winter to spring with the appearance of solar radiation. The polar vortex is characterized by the presence of a dynamic barrier, when the wind speed along the entire edge of the vortex is more than 20, 18 and 16 m/s at the 50, 70 and 100 hPa levels, respectively. In the winter-spring 2015/2016, almost no weakening of the dynamic barrier was observed, which contributed to a temperature decrease inside the vortex, the formation of polar stratospheric clouds and the subsequent occurrence of heterogeneous and photochemical reactions of ozone destruction, while in the winter 2016/2017, a frequent weakening of the dynamic barrier was observed in the lower stratosphere at the 50, 70 and 100 hPa levels, accompanied by an increase in temperature and ozone content inside the vortex as a result of the penetration of warm, ozone-rich air masses into the vortex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of mid‐latitude oceanic frontal zones with sharp meridional sea‐surface temperature (SST) gradients on the middle atmosphere circulation during austral winter is investigated by comparing two idealized experiments with a high‐top gravity wave (GW) permitting general circulation model. Control run is performed with realistic frontal SST gradients, which are artificially smoothed in no‐front run. The control run simulates active baroclinic waves and GW generation around the mid‐latitude SST front, with GWs propagating into the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the no‐front run, by contrast, baroclinic‐wave activity is significantly suppressed, and GWs with smaller amplitude are excited and then dissipated at higher altitudes in the mesosphere. Westward wave forcing in the winter hemisphere was more pronounced in the control run up to ∼0.03 hPa, resulting in a more realistic reproduction of the middle atmospheric polar vortex. The results demonstrate the importance of realistic mid‐latitude ocean conditions for simulating the middle atmosphere circulation. Plain Language Summary: The impact of the mid‐latitude oceanic fronts characterized by sharp sea‐surface temperature (SST) gradients is investigated using a global gravity‐wave permitting atmospheric model that represents the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere. Two idealized experiments were conducted with different SST profiles. Control run features a realistic SST profile characterized by frontal SST gradients in mid‐latitudes, while they are smoothed out artificially in the "no‐front" run. In winter the no‐front run simulates significantly suppressed generation of synoptic‐scale cyclones and anticyclones, which results in reduced upward propagation of higher‐frequency gravity waves into the stratosphere, exerting marked impact on the large‐scale circulation extending as high as the mesopause. Notably higher gravity wave activity in the control run leads to a weaker, and more realistic wintertime polar vortex in the stratosphere and mesosphere. This study emphasizes the potential influence of mid‐latitude oceanic conditions on the atmospheric circulation, not only in the troposphere but also throughout the stratosphere and mesosphere. Key Points: High‐top global model simulations are conducted to examine the impact of a mid‐latitude oceanic front on the atmospheric circulationThe oceanic front enhances tropospheric baroclinic‐wave activity and generation of gravity waves propagating into the middle atmosphereThe enhanced gravity waves act to reduce cold bias of the wintertime polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere middle atmosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermospheric polar warming (TPW) is observed conclusively for the first time at Mars during the aphelion/Northern Summer season using solar occultation (SO) measurements made by the Extreme Ultraviolet Monitor (EUVM) onboard the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) orbiter. Aphelion data from Mars Year (MY) 33–36 are analyzed revealing TPW to be present at dawn but not dusk. This is consistent with an earlier analysis of accelerometer data from the Mars Global Surveyor that showed aphelion TPW is also not evident at 15 hr local time. Separating the data into individual MYs reveals TPW is observed during each year except MY 35. TPW is markedly intensified during MY 34, which is attributed to enhanced circulation caused by a northern‐hemisphere dust storm coinciding with the observations. Simulations from the Mars Climate Database predict the large TPW enhancement in MY 34 relative to MY 33 observed by EUVM SO, but predicts approximately 20K less overall TPW for both years than that observed by EUVM SO. Plain Language Summary: Warming in the winter upper atmosphere has been observed for the first time in the Southern hemisphere at Mars during aphelion, when Mars is furthest from the Sun, using the Extreme Ultraviolet Monitor onboard the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN orbiter. These observations show the warming trend is typically found at dawn but is not observed at dusk. This warming is believed to be caused by large‐scale atmospheric circulation that transports air from the warmer summer hemisphere toward the winter pole. These observations show that the winter upper atmospheric warming is most pronounced when a dust storm is active in the summer hemisphere, which can be explained by the dust storm strengthening the circulation pattern responsible for the warming. These measurements are compared to simulations from an atmospheric model (called the Mars Climate Database) that show reasonably good agreement. Key Points: Thermospheric polar warming is observed at Mars during aphelion at dawnA significant enhancement of thermospheric polar warming coincides with a dust storm in the summer hemisphere (MY 34)Thermospheric polar warming is evident at dawn local times in two independent solar occultation data sets from two spacecraft, Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN and Trace Gas Orbiter [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction project, which recently celebrated its 10-year anniversary at a conference attended by scientists from 29 countries. The conference focused on predictability and processes, modeling, and research to operations. Key topics included the interaction between different drivers of predictability, advancements in modeling techniques, and the use of S2S forecasts for early warning and decision-making. The conference also highlighted the challenges that remain in improving S2S prediction and the importance of continued research and collaboration in this field. The report provides a comprehensive overview of Ryu's work and contributions, making it a valuable resource for library patrons conducting research in this area. [Extracted from the article]

Using a large ensemble of initialised retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) from a seasonal prediction system, we explore various statistics relating to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Observations show that SSWs occur at a similar frequency during both El Niño and La Niña northern hemisphere winters. This is contrary to expectation, as the stronger stratospheric polar vortex associated with La Niña years might be expected to result in fewer of these extreme breakdowns. Here we show that this similar frequency may have occurred by chance due to the limited sample of years in the observational record. We also show that in these hindcasts, winters with two SSWs, a rare event in the observational record, on average have an increased surface impact. Multiple SSW events occur at a lower rate than expected if events were independent but somewhat surprisingly, our analysis also indicates a risk, albeit small, of winters with three or more SSWs, as yet an unseen event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The link between weather regimes (WRs) and polar low (PL) activity is examined over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. Compared to earlier studies based on limited, regional PL datasets, our study conducts a more complete evaluation of regional WR–PL relationships using an expanded PL climatology. Our findings show that PL activity is increased over the Norwegian and Barents Seas during the Atlantic ridge regime and decreased over the former region during the Scandinavian blocking regime, with negative impacts also stretching to the Irminger Sea. Over the Labrador and Irminger Seas, PL activity is modulated strongest by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with positive impacts during the positive phase and vice versa. Over the North Pacific, the Arctic low contributes to increased PL activity over most regions, while the opposite is true for the Pacific wave train regime. The variability of PL activity associated with WRs is strongly related to changes in key environmental conditions. In general, regions of enhanced (reduced) PL activity are coincident with anomalous low-level northerly (southerly) flow and reduced (increased) static stability. Further analysis shows that certain persistent WRs can strongly modulate PL activity over some regions, either due to the amplification or propagation of favorable or unfavorable conditions, which cautions the limitation of regarding WRs as stationary patterns. A previously developed PL genesis potential index is shown to represent the observed impacts well, which serves to confirm the robustness of our findings and suggests the potential applicability of WRs to the subseasonal prediction of PLs. Significance Statement: Polar lows are intense small-scale (∼300 km) cyclones that form over high-latitude oceanic regions. The hazardous impacts they pose to coastal communities and maritime and air operations in the Arctic motivate their skillful prediction, which remains a major challenge at lead times beyond a few days. In this study, we relate PLs and the key environmental conditions that favor their development to weather regimes, which are recurrent large-scale circulation patterns that can persist for weeks at a time. We find that weather regimes have strong impacts on polar low activity through the modulation of key environmental conditions. These relationships can potentially be utilized in the extended-range prediction of polar lows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The weak stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) is usually linked to Northern Hemisphere cold spells. Based on the fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis and WACCM model experiments, we use K-means cluster analysis to extract the zonally asymmetric pattern of October-February stratospheric variability, which involves a stretched SPV and hence leads to cold surges in Northern Hemispheric mid-latitudes. There are contrasting effects and mechanisms between autumn (October–November) and late winter (February) SPV stretching events. In October, anomalies in the stratospheric circulation affect the near-surface 16–20 days after the weakening of the SPV. This contributes to a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) towards its negative phase, leading to cold anomalies over northern Eurasia. Together with the weakening of planetary wave-1 during days 31–40, the second stratosphere–troposphere coupling strengthens the East Asian trough and the Siberian high, resulting in Eurasian high-latitude cooling. For November, the suppressed upward propagation of wave-1 during days 11–15 is conducive to anomalous high pressure over northern Europe and thereby European cooling through a stratospheric pathway, while for days 21–30, the weakening of propagating wave-2 over Eastern Europe intensifies the mid-latitude wave train through a tropospheric pathway, favorable for cold temperatures in mid-latitude East Asia. In contrast, the late winter SPV stretching events and the attendant Eurasian coldness during 11–25 days are likely to have been simultaneously driven by the long-lived European high anomaly, which enhanced the upward-propagating tropospheric waves into the stratosphere and thus favored SPV stretching. It indicates that the tropospheric pathway, rather than the stratospheric pathway, plays a dominant role in cold Eurasia following February SPV stretching events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• For the SH 2019 SSW, the wave driving observed was the highest recorded since 1979. • An enhanced upwelling led to cooling in the tropical stratosphere. • Tropical upper stratospheric water vapor increased while ozone decreased after SSW. The changes in the intensity of Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in the record-breaking Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SH SSW) event in 2019 are investigated in the present study. Wave driving was observed to be at its highest in 2019 SH SSW, despite the event being classified as a minor warming event. The Eliassen-Palm flux divergence, indicative of wave driving, was observed to be increasing before the SSW, and subsiding afterwards. The stratospheric circulation followed the wave driving and intensified along the warming episode. The resulting stratospheric distribution from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder showed a negative ozone anomaly (∼20%) in the tropical lower stratosphere and a downward propagating positive anomaly in the Southern Hemisphere polar stratosphere around the central dates. The water vapor mixing ratio showed an increase of more than 25% in the polar lower stratosphere and 10 % in the tropical upper stratosphere. A cooling of about 5 K was observed in the tropical middle stratosphere. The results indicate that SH SSW can change the intensity of the stratospheric circulation which in turn affects the ozone and water vapor transport from the tropics to the pole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gravity wave parameterizations contribute to uncertainties in middle atmosphere modeling. To investigate the potential for using machine learning to represent atmospheric gravity waves and the impact of implementing such schemes in a general circulation model (GCM), we train a random forest (RF) emulator on outputs from an existing complex parameterization scheme for orographic gravity wave drag (GWD). The performance of the RF emulator is then evaluated with a focus on stratospheric climatology and variability in climate simulations from the middle atmosphere resolving Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric Circulation Model. In offline tests, the predicted orographic GWD by the RF agrees remarkably well with the target GWD throughout the troposphere and the middle atmosphere. The RF emulator can reproduce the observed climatology of zonal‐mean wind and air temperature in the GCM simulation, as well as its target scheme. Compared to the target orographic GWD parameterization scheme, the RF emulator can reproduce the breakdown of the polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using machine learning to emulate parameterized orographic GWD for modeling the stratosphere with a GCM. Plain Language Summary: Machine learning has been utilized to learn atmospheric physical parameterizations such as moist convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, nonorographic gravity waves, etc. However, it remains unknown whether it is feasible to apply machine learning algorithms to parameterize orographic gravity waves and how such schemes perform when interactively coupled in atmospheric general circulation models. Here we employ the widely used random forest algorithm to learn from an existing complex parameterization scheme for orographic gravity wave drag. Then, we implement the random forest scheme in a high‐top atmospheric general circulation model to test its performance. We find that the random forest scheme acts as well as the target parameterization scheme. This study demonstrates the potential of using machine learning to emulate parameterized orographic gravity waves for modeling the middle atmosphere. In future work, it is recommended that machine learning may be used to develop new parameterization schemes directly from observations or high‐resolution model outputs to overcome critical deficiencies in current orographic gravity wave parameterizations, helping to reduce the common biases in simulating the stratosphere with general circulation models. Key Points: Parameterized gravity wave drag from unresolved orography can be emulated with a random forestThe random forest emulator simulates vertical distributions of the zonal wind and air temperature quite well in a general circulation model (GCM)The GCM configured with the random forest scheme reproduces a reasonable breakdown of the austral polar vortex in the stratosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the relationships between the observed long‐term trends of the zonal wind in the mesopause regions at King Sejong Station (KSS), Antarctica, and wind trends in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) middle atmosphere using the 15‐year data set from KSS meteor radar, Aura MLS and MERRA‐2. During July, significant positive trends of zonal winds appear above z = 90 km and near the stratopause over the KSS, while negative trends exist between the two layers. In the SH winter, the observed mesopause winds correlate positively (negatively) with stratospheric (mesospheric) winds in the polar region, while they exhibit opposite correlations with the low‐latitude winds. The positive mesopause trends of zonal winds near KSS are connected, through the thermal wind relationship, to cooling (warming) trends induced by the upward (downward) trends of residual circulation over the high‐latitude mesosphere and low‐latitude stratosphere (high‐latitude stratosphere), which shows vertical coupling throughout the SH winter middle atmosphere. Plain Language Summary: Based on 15‐year (2007–2021) observations of horizontal winds obtained at mesopause altitudes of 80–100 km by a meteor radar at King Sejong Station (KSS; 62.22°S, 58.78°W), Antarctica, we find long‐term trends of eastward winds above 90 km in July. To investigate the relationship between the observed long‐term trends of the mesopause wind over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar region and winds in the SH middle atmosphere, we analyze Aura MLS satellite data and MERRA‐2 reanalysis data. In the SH winter, the mesopause zonal winds over polar regions are positively (negatively) correlated with zonal winds in the polar stratosphere (polar mesosphere), while the opposite correlations are found between the polar mesopause and low latitudes. We demonstrate that the trends of temperature induced by adiabatic warming or cooling associated with meridional circulation in the stratosphere and mesosphere are connected to the observed mesopause wind trends in the polar region (KSS), which accounts for the vertical coupling between the mesopause region and stratosphere across the mesosphere. Key Points: Trends of zonal winds in the Southern Hemisphere mesopause and stratosphere are investigated using meteor radar and satellite observationsSignificant correlations are found between the mesopause wind at high latitudes and the winds in the middle atmosphereThe observed wind trends in austral winter are coupled vertically between the mesopause region and stratosphere across the mesosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai volcano on 15 January 2022 was one of the most explosive eruptions of the last decades. The amount of water vapor injected into the stratosphere was unprecedented in the observational record, increasing the stratospheric water vapor burden by about 10%. Using model runs from the ATLAS chemistry and transport model and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations, we show that while 20%–40% more water vapor than usual was entrained into the Antarctic polar vortex in 2023 as it formed, the direct chemical effect of the increased water vapor on Antarctic ozone depletion in June through October was minor (less than 4 DU). This is because low temperatures in the vortex, as occur every year in the Antarctic, limit water vapor to the saturation pressure and thus reset any anomalies through the process of dehydration before they can affect ozone loss. Plain Language Summary: The eruption of the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai volcano on 15 January 2022 was one of the most explosive eruptions of the last decades. An amount of water vapor unprecedented in the observational record was injected into the stratosphere, increasing the total stratospheric water vapor mass by about 10%. Using model runs and satellite observations, we show that while the dispersion of the plume increased water vapor in the Antarctic in 2023 by 20%–40% at the beginning of the ozone hole season compared to earlier years, the effect of the increased water vapor on the Antarctic ozone hole was minor. This is because low temperatures in the vortex, as occur every year in the Antarctic, limit water vapor due to condensation and thus reset any anomalies before they can affect ozone loss. Key Points: The Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai eruption increased water vapor in the emerging Antarctic vortex in 2023 by 20%–40% compared to earlier yearsThe increased water vapor from Hunga Tonga had a minor effect on Antarctic ozone depletion through the end of October (less than 4 DU)This minor effect is due to low, but not unusual, vortex temperatures that reset water vapor anomalies before they could impact ozone loss [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic Total Column Ozone (TCO) gradually began to recover around 2000, and a large number of studies have pointed out that the recovery of the Antarctic TCO is most significant in the austral early spring (September). Based on the Bodeker Scientific Filled Total Column Ozone and ERA5 reanalysis dataset covering 1979–2019, the variation characteristics of the Antarctic TCO and stratospheric circulation for the TCO 'depletion' period (1979–1999) and the 'recovery' period (2000–2019) are analyzed in September. Results show that: (1) Stratospheric elements significantly related to the TCO have corresponding changes during the two eras. (2) The interannual variability of the TCO and the above-mentioned stratospheric circulation elements in the recovery period are stronger than those in the depletion period. (3) Compared with the depletion period, due to the stronger amplitude of the planetary wave 1, stronger Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux corresponds to EP flux convergence, larger negative eddy heat flux, and positive eddy momentum flux in the stratosphere during the recovery period. The polar temperature rises in the lower and middle stratosphere and the polar vortex weakens in the middle and upper stratosphere, accompanied by the diminished area of PSC. This contributes to the understanding of Antarctic ozone recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cold Eurasia has been proposed to be closely linked to the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), however, how the Arctic sea ice modulates the surface impacts of the weak SPV is unclear. This study explores the critical modulating role of reduced Arctic sea ice in the surface cooling response to SPV stretching events in autumn. Here, through ERA5 reanalysis and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model simulations, we show that Eurasian cold events are more likely (45%) to occur in days 30–50 after the onset of SPV stretching events under lower Barents‐Kara Seas (BKS) sea ice conditions, in contrast to under heavy BKS sea ice conditions when robust surface cooling is absent. The stratospheric and tropospheric pathways explain 46.8% and 53.2% of the total variance of Siberian coldness, respectively. The downward extension of anomalous stratospheric wave‐2 ridge to the troposphere intensifies the Arctic‐North European high, favoring the subsequent colder Siberia. Plain Language Summary: Stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) stretching events are characterized by a zonally asymmetric pattern of lower stratospheric variability with positive height anomalies over northern Eurasia and negative anomalies over Canada. In this study, we mainly focus on the SPV stretching events that occurred from October to November, and this is because the surface cooling over high‐latitude Eurasia following these events is associated with the stratospheric pathway. Here, the autumn events can be categorized into lower (LoSIC/BKSIC) and higher (HiSIC/Ctrl) sea ice groups based on observations and simulations. We further demonstrate that lower BKS sea ice conditions are favorable for intensified upward propagation of waves into the stratosphere in the Euro‐Siberian sector prior to the onset of SPV stretching events, and subsequently affect the geometry of the SPV (SPV stretching pattern). The stratospheric wave‐2 ridge anomalies migrate downward to the mid‐troposphere 30–40 days following SPV stretching onset, leading to the enhancement of the Arctic‐North European high and attendant colder Eurasia. These results emphasize the critical modulating role of Arctic sea ice in the Eurasian cooling response to SPV stretching events. Key Points: Barents‐Kara Seas (BKS) sea ice loss modulates the impacts of autumn SPV stretching events on subsequent Siberian coolingReduced BKS sea ice enhances the upward propagation of waves into the stratosphere over the Euro‐Siberian sectorDescent of the anomalous stratospheric wave‐2 ridge bridges the SPV stretching events and Siberian cooling under low sea ice conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamic barrier is one of the physical characteristics of the polar vortices; it prevents subpolar air masses from penetrating into the vortex and contributes to a temperature decrease inside the vortex in the lower stratosphere. In the presence of a dynamic barrier in winter, chlorine cycle reagents of ozone destruction accumulate on particles of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and heterogeneous reactions occur with the formation of molecular chlorine. Solar radiation over the polar region trigger photochemical reactions that lead to large-scale ozone depletion. When the dynamic barrier weakens in winter, the temperature inside the vortex rises, PSC particles are destroyed, and, thus, the accumulation of chlorine cycle reagents on PSCs is interrupted. The dynamics of the Arctic polar vortex is proposed to be divided into three types according to the character of consequences: (1) a strong vortex, the activity of which results in the formation of an ozone anomaly, (2) a weak vortex with breakdown in winter, marked by a sudden stratospheric warming, and (3) a stable vortex with an episode (episodes) of weakening of the dynamic barrier in winter without ozone depletion in the period from late winter to spring. A characteristic of the dynamic barrier of the polar vortex at all pressure levels from 100 to 1 hPa is presented for the first time and the consequences of its weakening are described. Using the vortex delineation method based on the data of the ERA5 and MERRA-2 re-analyses, it is shown that in all cases when the polar ozone anomaly was not recorded from late winter to spring under the conditions of the stable polar vortex, the dynamic barrier weakened and particles in the PSСs were destroyed in midwinter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is the fastest warming biome on the planet, and environmental changes are having striking effects on freshwater ecosystems that may impact the regional carbon cycle. The metabolic state of Arctic lakes is often considered net heterotrophic, due to an assumed supply of allochthonous organic matter that supports ecosystem respiration and carbon mineralization in excess of rates of primary production. However, lake metabolic patterns vary according to regional climatic characteristics, hydrological connectivity, organic matter sources and intrinsic lake properties, and the metabolism of most Arctic lakes is unknown. We sampled 35 waterbodies along a connectivity gradient from headwater to downstream lakes, on southern Victoria Island, Nunavut, in an area characterized by low precipitation, organic‐poor soils, and high evaporation rates. We evaluated whether lakes were net autotrophic or heterotrophic during the open water period using an oxygen isotopic mass balance approach. Most of the waterbodies were autotrophic and sites of net organic matter production or close to metabolic equilibrium. Autotrophy was associated with higher benthic primary production, as compared to its pelagic counterpart, due to the high irradiance reaching the bottom and efficient internal carbon and nutrient cycling. Highly connected midstream and downstream lakes showed efficient organic matter cycling, as evidenced by the strong coupling between gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, while decoupling was observed in some headwater lakes with significantly higher GPP. The shallow nature of lakes in the flat, arid region of southern Victoria Island supports net autotrophy in most lakes during the open water season. Ongoing climate changes that lengthen the ice‐free irradiance period and increase rates of nutrient evapoconcentration may further promote net autotrophy, with uncertain long‐term effects for lake functioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric Final Warmings (SFWs) are considered to have a distinct impact on the surface weather and stratospheric ozone. Most SFWs are predominantly wave‐driven, while previous studies generally focused on the effects of tropospheric anomalous wave forcing on stratospheric wave amplification. This study demonstrates the crucial role of preconditioned stratospheric modulation on the occurrence of wave‐driven SFWs in the Northern Hemisphere, using ERA5 reanalysis. In most cases, the preconditioned stratospheric state is the key factor in determining the occurrence of both early and late SFWs. The tropospheric anomalous wave forcing cannot independently trigger most SFWs without stratospheric modulation. The proportion of anomalous stratospheric signals followed by SFWs is much higher than that of anomalous tropospheric forcing, even if the proportions of SFWs preceded by anomalous stratospheric signals and tropospheric wave forcing are similar. Additionally, about 25% of SFWs are only preceded by stratospheric modulation without anomalously strong tropospheric wave amplification. Plain Language Summary: Each Spring, the extratropical‐stratospheric circumpolar westerly called the polar vortex, reverses to summertime easterly in the Northern Hemisphere. This seasonal transition is known as stratospheric final warmings (SFWs). SFWs have been suggested to exert a notable impact on the tropospheric circulation and stratospheric ozone. There is considerable interannual variability in the timing of SFWs, from as early as mid‐March to as late as May. The timing of SFWs is crucial for subseasonal to seasonal climate predictability. Early SFWs and many late SFWs are predominantly driven by stratospheric wave forcing. Climatologically, the stratospheric planetary waves originate from the troposphere. Thus, the stratospheric wave amplification in SFWs is generally attributed to the effects of anomalous wave sources in the troposphere. However, our results suggest that the modulation of preconditioned stratospheric signals is the key factor in the occurrence of both early and late SFWs. The stratospheric modulation is not less important for triggering SFWs than the anomalous wave forcing from the troposphere. Key Points: The modulation of preconditioned stratospheric state on stratospheric wave amplification is a key factor to trigger wave‐driven stratospheric final warmings (SFWs)More than half of SFWs is preceded by anomalously strong stratospheric signalsAbout 25% of SFWs are only preceded by robust stratospheric signals and without anomalously strong tropospheric wave forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphene‐based laminate membranes with selective ion‐transport capability show great potential in renewable osmotic energy harvesting. One of the great challenges is to reduce the overall energy barriers while remain the high ion selectivity in the transmembrane ion transport process. Here, a strategy is proposed to break the trade‐off between ion selectivity and permeability in laminar nanochannels using amphiphilic molecules as modifier, which enhances the surface charge density of nanochannel by loading more ion polymer with polar head and lows the frictional force of ion transport with hydrophobic tail. The conversion efficiency can reach to 32% in osmotic energy harvesting (0.5 m/0.01 m concentration gradient) after adopting this modifier. During the process of mixing real river water and seawater, the maximum power density can reach to 13.38 W m−2. The amphiphilic molecules also bind adjacent nanosheets, endowing the membrane's strong mechanical strength and high stability in aqueous solution. This work can open up a new way to regulate the transmembrane ion transport in 2D laminate membranes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) can influence the extratropical circulation on timescales up to several weeks, with a dependence on the MJO characteristics: MJO episodes that propagate slowly across the Maritime Continent have a stronger impact on Euro‐Atlantic weather than fast MJO episodes. While the tropospheric pathway for MJO teleconnections with varying phase speeds is well understood, in this study, we investigate the contribution of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric pathway for fast versus slow MJO episodes. During slow MJO episodes, Phases 5–6 lead to increased upward wave propagation in the North Pacific sector, and subsequently enhanced heat flux at 100 hPa, leading to the weakening of the polar vortex. The results suggest a clear role of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling for slow MJO episodes, which is proposed as a mechanism for anomalously strong positive polar cap height anomalies in MJO Phases 7–8. Plain Language Summary: The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) consists of an eastward‐moving band of clouds, rainfall, and winds in the tropics. The MJO originates over the West Indian Ocean and typically takes 10–20 days to propagate from the Indian Ocean (Phase 3) to the Western Pacific (Phase 6). The convection associated with the MJO influences global weather via wave‐propagation. The waves propagate through both a tropospheric and stratospheric pathway. The MJO is, therefore, an important source of mid‐latitude predictability on timescales of weeks to months. Here, we explore the stratospheric pathway, differentiating between fast and slowly propagating MJO episodes. Slowly propagating MJO episodes significantly strengthen the polar vortex from day 0–18 following Phases 3–5 and weaken the vortex following Phases 7–8. The weakening of vortex is due to a strengthening of the low‐pressure system in the North Pacific sector, allowing upward wave propagation into the stratosphere during Phases 6–1. This weakened vortex signal then propagates into the troposphere causing persistent warm anomalies in the polar cap region. Fast MJO episodes show a weaker response than slow cases. Our study suggests that slowly propagating MJO episodes have the potential to extend the predictability of the stratosphere and its subsequent impact on the North Atlantic region. Key Points: Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) episodes that propagate slowly from Phase 3 to Phase 6 exhibit significantly stronger anomalies in the stratosphere than fast episodesHeat flux anomalies in the lower stratosphere are significantly enhanced and last longer following MJO Phases 5–7 for slow MJO episodesThe stratospheric signal progresses downward in the slow MJO episodes and extends to the lower troposphere and surface during MJO Phases 7/8 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Polar Vortex (SPV) is prominent over Antarctica in the Austral winter, and typically associated with a region of low temperature, low ozone concentration, negative potential vorticity, and polar stratospheric clouds. Seasonal and unexpected changes in the SPV have a profound influence on global weather. A methodology which identifies the SPV's coherence and breakup using only wind and pressure data is developed and validated against temperature, ozone and potential vorticity data. The process identifies "convective modes", each with an assigned "coherence" value, which form building blocks for the observed spatial variation of the SPV. Analysis and interpretation are presented for 4 years with quite different known behavior of the SPV: 1999 (a relatively standard year), 2002 (when the SPV split into two), 2019 (an atmospheric warming year which led to an early dissipation in the SPV), and the most recent year 2022 (which was influenced by submarine volcano eruptions and a prolonged La Niña event). In decomposing convective effects into modes with quantifiable coherence, this study solidifies connections between wind velocities and atmospheric variables while providing new tools to study the evolution of coherent structures and signal the occurrence of atypical geophysical events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Power lines have complex transmission characteristics and noise interference when used as information transmission channel, thus limiting their data‐carrying rate and reliability. Impulsive noise is the most dominant factor degrading the performance of communication systems over power lines. To combat the impulsive noise, polar codes are introduced into the orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM)‐based power line communication (PLC) system. Because the successive cancelation list bit‐flip (SCLF) decoding algorithm of polar codes has high decoding complexity, a low complexity segmented cyclic redundancy check (CRC)‐aided SCLF decoding is proposed to improve the decoding performance. The decoding process can be terminated early with segmented CRC, which can reduce the bit‐flip decoding complexity significantly with short and medium block lengths. Experimental results demonstrate that for various configurations, the proposed decoder outperforms the traditional CRC‐aided SCL decoder in terms of decoding performance and complexity, and the suggested polar codes‐based OFDM‐based PLC system can reduce the bit error rate of the system in the presence of impulsive noise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanism for the paradox of global warming and successive cold winters in mid-latitudes remains controversial. In this study, the connection between Arctic sea ice (ASI) loss and frequent cold air outbreaks in eastern Continental United States (CONUS) is explored. Two distinct periods of high and low ASI (hereafter high- and low-ice phases) are identified for comparative study. It is demonstrated that cold air outbreaks occur more frequently during the low-ice phase compared to that during the high-ice phase. The polar vortex is weakened and shifted southward during the low-ice phase. Correspondingly, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH), which represents the mid-tropospheric circulation, shows a clear negative Arctic Oscillation-like pattern in the low-ice phase. Specifically, positive GPH anomalies in the Arctic region with two centers, respectively located over Greenland and the Barents Sea, significantly weaken the low-pressure system centered around the Baffin Island, and enhance Ural blocking in the low-ice phase. Meanwhile, the high ridge extending from Alaska to the west coast of North America further intensifies, while the low trough over eastern CONUS deepens. As a result, the atmospheric circulation in North America becomes more conductive to frigid Arctic air outbreaks. It is concluded that the ASI loss contributes to more cold air outbreaks in winter in eastern CONUS through the polar vortex weakening with southward displacement of the polar vortex edge, which lead to the weakening of the meridional potential vorticity gradient between the Arctic and mid-latitude and thus are conducive to the strengthening and long-term maintenance of the blocking high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss and subsequent near-surface impacts by analyzing 200-member coupled experiments using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) with preindustrial, present-day, and future sea ice conditions specified following the protocol of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The stratospheric polar vortex weakens significantly in response to the prescribed sea ice loss, with a larger response to greater ice loss (i.e., future minus preindustrial) than to smaller ice loss (i.e., future minus present-day). Following the weakening of the stratospheric circulation in early boreal winter, the coupled stratosphere–troposphere response to ice loss strengthens in late winter and early spring, projecting onto a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern in the lower troposphere. To investigate whether the stratospheric response to sea ice loss and subsequent surface impacts depend on the background oceanic state, ensemble members are initialized by a combination of varying phases of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and interdecadal Pacific variability (IPV). Different AMV and IPV states combined, indeed, can modulate the stratosphere–troposphere responses to sea ice loss, particularly in the North Atlantic sector. Similar experiments with another climate model show that, although strong sea ice forcing also leads to tighter stratosphere–troposphere coupling than weak sea ice forcing, the timing of the response differs from that in WACCM6. Our findings suggest that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the stratospheric circulation and subsequent tropospheric variability on seasonal time scales, but modulation by the background oceanic state and model dependence need to be taken into account. Significance Statement: This study uses new-generation climate models to better understand the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on the surface climate in the midlatitudes, including North America, Europe, and Siberia. We focus on the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, which involves the weakening of stratospheric winds and its downward coupling into the troposphere. Our results show that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the surface climate in the midlatitudes via the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, and highlight the modulations from background mean oceanic states as well as model dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cloud imaging and particle size (CIPS) instrument onboard the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere satellite provides images of gravity waves (GWs) near the stratopause and lowermost mesosphere (altitudes of 50–55 km). GW identification is based on Rayleigh Albedo Anomaly (RAA) variances, which are derived from GW‐induced fluctuations in Rayleigh scattering at 265 nm. Based on 3 years of CIPS RAA variance data from 2019 to 2022, we report for the first time the seasonal distribution of GWs entering the mesosphere with high (7.5 km) horizontal resolution on a near‐global scale. Seasonally averaged GW variances clearly show spatial and temporal patterns of GW activity, mainly due to the seasonal variation of primary GW sources such as convection, the polar vortices and flow over mountains. Measurements of stratospheric GWs derived from Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) observations of 4.3 μm brightness temperature perturbations within the same 3‐year time range are compared to the CIPS results. The comparisons show that locations of GW hotspots are similar in the CIPS and AIRS observations. Variability in GW variances and the monthly changes in background zonal wind suggest a strong GW‐wind correlation. This study demonstrates the utility of the CIPS GW variance data set for statistical investigations of GWs in the lowermost mesosphere, as well as provides a reference for location/time selection for GW case studies. Key Points: Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere cloud imaging and particle size (CIPS) provides first near‐global images of gravity waves at 50–55 km with high horizontal resolutionCIPS observes gravity wave hotspots generated by convection, topography, and the polar vortexLocations of gravity wave hotspots near the stratopause/lowermost mesosphere are similar to those in the mid‐stratosphere near 35 km [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of ethylene substitution and the tether length between the two reacting counterparts on the selectivity and reactivity of the intramolecular [3 + 2] cycloaddition (IM32CA) reactions of cyclic nitrones leading to tricyclic isoxazolidines have been studied within the Molecular Electron Density theory at the MPWB1K/6‐311G(d,p) computational level. These zw‐type IM32CA reactions follow one‐step mechanism, and the activation barrier decreases with the introduction of electron withdrawing (EW) substituent at the alkene moiety in both the intramolecular and intermolecular versions. The IM32CA reactions involving unsubstituted alkene have non‐polar character with minimal electron density flux classified as null electron density flux type, while that involving the EW nitro substituted ethylene is more facile with a strong electron density flux from the nitrone to the ethylene moiety, classified as forward electron density flux type. The increase in the polar character of the IM32CA reaction decreases the activation Gibbs free energies associated with these intramolecular processes, while the highly polar IM32CA reactions are disfavored with respect to the intermolecular ones. Interestingly, the preferred regioselectivity observed in low polar IM32CA reactions having three methylene units between the nitrone and ethylene frameworks is reversed to that in nitrones separated with four methylene units, in conformity with the experimental outcome. Finally, electron localization function and quantum theory of atoms‐in‐molecules studies reveal that, in general, these IM32CA reactions involve early transition state structures in which the formation of new C‐C and C‐O single bonds have not yet started. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frost events are a climatic phenomenon of great severity, exerting profound impacts on agricultural production and human endeavours. From 1961 to 2017, China experienced a reduction in frost days (FDs) and elongation of frost‐free periods (FFPs) across most regions. Many factors contribute to the variation of frost events, highlighting the urgent need to scrutinize the intrinsic factors driving these climatic frost events' inter‐annual and interdecadal fluctuations. This work analysed the temporal and spatial attributes of FDs and FFPs, using statistical methods to dissect daily minimum temperature data collected from ground observation stations from 1961 to 2017. The results reveal a declining trajectory in annual FDs and an ascending trend in FFPs. However, the interannual and interdecadal variations do not consistently align with the climatological course. The spatial distribution of the first four modes of EOF exhibits a persistent variation, north–south, monopole and east–west pattern for FDs and FFPs. In comparison, the modes of FFPs exhibit many complexities and diversities. Moreover, this study considers geographical location, altitude and proximity to the ocean, as well as atmospheric circulation factors, including circulation indices, ocean indices and other relevant indices, to elucidate their influence on frost events. In conjunction with the role of greenhouse gases in propelling global warming, we elucidate that the intensity of the Atlantic–European polar vortex, the area of the Indian Ocean warm pool, and the spatial positioning and extent of the subtropical high emerge as preeminent internal oscillations instigating interdecadal shifts in frost events. This study provides valuable scientific insights into the formation mechanisms and evolving patterns of frost events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the interannual cross‐seasonal association between the winter energetic particle precipitation, which is related to the geomagnetic activity (GA), and the southern annular mode (SAM) in the following summer by employing the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The results reveal a marked negative correlation between these variables on an interannual timescale. Therefore, we analyse the GA signatures in the southern atmosphere and find that the evolution of SAM to the negative phase driven by GA may be caused by the following two mechanisms: First, for high GA levels, the middle and lower stratospheric polar vortex becomes weaker from October to November, with considerable changes in the stratospheric thermal structure and more anomalous planetary wave upwelling, accompanied by weakening of the circumpolar westerly. Over time, the anomalous signal from the upper layer can be transmitted downward and is conducive to inducing and strengthening the negative SAM in the following summer, which may serve as the stratospheric pathway for the geomagnetic impact on the SAM and Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate. Second, another possible way is that the preceding GA also appreciably regulates negative anomalies in the Ferrel circulation in SH, implying poleward anomalies in the direction of the pressure gradient, which promotes the development and enhancement of the negative phase of the SAM. In addition, easterly quasi‐biennial oscillation conditioning plays a positive role in the response of the southern atmosphere to geomagnetic forcing, thereby strengthening the connection between them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lifetime of polar ozone anomalies depends on the phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO determines the location of the subtropical critical wind line, which influences the propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere. As a result, during the westerly phase of the QBO, the strengthening of a polar vortex is observed, while, during the easterly phase, its weakening is seen, which manifests itself in the dates, duration, and intensity of the stratospheric ozone depletion. Polar ozone anomalies occur inside a strong polar vortex from the end of winter up to spring as a result of the occurrence of heterogeneous and photochemical ozone depletion reactions in the presence of solar radiation. The effect of QBO phases at different isobaric levels on the dynamics of the stratospheric polar vortices are studied on the basis of satellite data from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). It is shown that the QBO at the pressure level of 30 hPa has a predominant effect on the dynamics of polar vortices. In the dynamics of the Antarctic polar vortex, it is observed from September to December, especially in October and November; in the dynamics of the Arctic polar vortex, it is pronounced throughout the entire period of its existence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new methodology demonstrating that specific small‐magnitude regional perturbations can cause large systematic responses in subseasonal predictions. We show this with ensemble forecasts of the January 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) from an operational long‐range global prediction system. In forecast members which predict the SSW, tropospheric ridging over the North Atlantic is strengthened 10 days prior to the event. This subsequently enhances planetary wave forcing and weakens the stratospheric polar vortex. Transplanting tropospheric conditions in this region from "correct" to "incorrect" forecasts (and vice versa) significantly alters the SSW forecast probability. The occurrence of this SSW is therefore strongly controlled by the troposphere several days prior. Tipping more members into a sudden warming also significantly affects surface predictions the following month. Despite chaotic behavior of the climate system, small‐magnitude synoptic‐scale perturbations can drive different dynamical states and systematically impact medium and long‐range predictions. Plain Language Summary: Subseasonal forecast ensembles exhibit a large spread in conditions after several days. Some ensemble members go on to produce "correct" forecasts whilst others do not: is this unorganized chaotic noise, or can specific perturbations drive systematic responses? We investigate this with forecasts of the January 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Comparing "correct" and "incorrect" SSW forecasts we identify key differences developing over the North Atlantic shortly after initialization. To demonstrate causality, we take atmospheric conditions for this region from a "correct" forecast member and insert them into all other forecast members. This change significantly increases the number of "correct" forecasts of the SSW 10 days later. The reverse experiment, taking conditions from an "incorrect" member, significantly decreases the SSW forecast probability. These results demonstrate how specific atmospheric features can systematically influence predictions at medium and long‐range time scales, potentially providing additional skill at times of uncertainty. Key Points: We identify key atmospheric features over the North Atlantic in "correct" forecasts of the January 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)Transplanting these conditions between ensemble members can systematically increase or decrease the SSW forecast probabilityThe proposed methodology can demonstrate the causality of specific atmospheric features and their role in medium and long‐range forecasts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a significant role in ozone depletion in the polar regions, acting as "surfaces" for heterogeneous reactions proceeding with the release of photochemically active molecular chlorine from late winter to early spring. Moreover, during the winter, chlorine "reservoirs," which are reagents for heterogeneous reactions, accumulate on PSC particles. When PSC particles are destroyed in midwinter, the accumulation of chlorine compounds is interrupted, and from late winter to spring, ozone depletion is not observed even under conditions of the strong polar vortex, in the presence of newly formed PSCs. Using the vortex delineation method, we studied the dynamics of the Arctic polar vortex in the winters of 1984–1985, 1998–1999, 2001–2002, 2012–2013, and 2018–2019 as the reasons for the abnormally long absence of PSCs in the Arctic in midwinter, when they existed in January within no more than 5 days according to satellite observations. The PSC melting in these years was observed when the dynamic barrier of the polar vortex weakened due to a local decrease in wind speed along the vortex edge below 20 m/s in the lower stratosphere, which was recorded throughout almost all of January. These cases are the only examples of unusual weakening of the Arctic polar vortex in midwinter for the period from 1979 to 2022. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In spring 2022, strong temperature whiplash events occurred in eastern China (EC), characterized by enhanced subseasonal variability in surface air temperature (SAT). Our results show that extreme temperature fluctuations are dominated by the amplified Eurasian wave train on a biweekly timescale as a possible response to increased sea ice concentrations (SICs) over the Barents‐Kara Seas (BK) in previous winter. Increased winter SICs weaken the upward planetary waves and enhance the stratospheric polar vortex. In spring, the downward propagation of enhanced polar vortex intensifies the polar front jet, increasing kinetic energy gain of the North Atlantic wave train and guiding it to travel farther eastward. The Eurasian wave train strengthens through an upstream development and enhanced local baroclinicity and enhances subseasonal SAT variability over EC. Therefore, the state of BK SICs in previous winter could be a useful signal for the enhanced likelihood of spring extreme temperature whiplash events. Plain Language Summary: In spring 2022, extremely cold and warm spells alternately affected eastern China (EC) and caused drastic temperature whiplash events, featured by the enhanced subseasonal variability of surface air temperature (SAT). We find the subseasonal SAT variability is directly associated with the Eurasian wave train, and its intensity is correlated with sea ice concentrations (SICs) over the Barents‐Kara Seas (BK) in previous winter. Increased SICs reduce the heat transfer from ocean to atmosphere, induce a cyclone anomaly aloft, and diminish the climatological planetary wavenumber‐1 component. The weakened upward wave activity flux strengthens the stratospheric polar vortex, which spreads downward until spring. Hence, the polar front jet in the North Atlantic is enhanced, and the meridional temperature gradient in northern Europe increases, providing a favorable background for atmospheric disturbance development. The North Atlantic wave train propagates farther eastward after gaining more kinetic energy from the accelerated jet and intensifies the following Eurasian wave train. Due to stronger local baroclinic energy conversion, the Eurasian wave train further strengthens, resulting in enhanced subseasonal SAT variability over EC. Therefore, the extremely increased winter BK SICs could be a useful initial signal for the probability of temperature whiplash events over EC in the following spring. Key Points: Record‐breaking subseasonal variability of surface air temperature (SAT) prevails in eastern China in spring 2022Sea ice concentrations over the Barents‐Kara Seas in previous winter strengthen mean state of North Atlantic circulation via the delayed role of the stratosphereThe upstream interaction between mean state and eddies reinforces the Eurasian wave train and enhances subseasonal SAT variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the data of ERA5 reanalysis, the dates of spring and autumn changes in the stratospheric circulation on isobaric surfaces of 30, 20, and 10 hPa in the latitude zone of 30°–90° N in the period 1979–2020 have been obtained. Of the 42 cases of spring changes, 10 are early, 15 are middle, and 17 are late. The spread in the dates of spring changes on the surface of 10 hPa is 69 days. Most often, the spring changes of the circulation occurs from top to bottom; in some years, the delay of spring changes on the surface of 30 hPa relative to the surface of 10 hPa reaches 22–25 days. Autumn change takes place from the bottom up, and their terms at the 3 levels under consideration are close to each other. The relationship between the timing of the spring changes of the stratospheric circulation with solar activity and large sudden winter stratospheric warming is shown. An analysis of the fields of anomalies of daily temperature values and zonal wind velocity in the 1000-1 hPa layer in the period of January–May showed their significant spatiotemporal difference in the case of early and late spring changes. Thus, foci of positive anomalies of temperature and wind speed are formed initially in the upper stratosphere and then shifted from top to bottom. The interrelations between the layers of the atmosphere in different seasons are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme states of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) affect the average position of the main propagation trajectories of synoptic vortices in the Northern Hemisphere over a time period from 2 weeks to 2 months. This time scale is considered one of the most difficult periods in forecasting. Based on the analysis of data from idealized numerical experiments on the Isca platform, we have studied the processes of formation of anomalous positions of storm tracks in the Atlantic–European region as a response to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and events of extremely strong SPV during various phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is shown that in winter it is impossible to unambiguously talk about the southward displacement of the Atlantic storm track during El Niño events without taking into account the intensity of SPV. The intensity of SPV, expressed as the zonal component of wind speed, averaged along 60° N at the level of 10 hPa, has its maximum predictive potential during El Niño. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electrocaloric effect demands the maximized degree of freedom (DOF) of polar domains and the lowest energy barrier to facilitate the transition of polarization. However, optimization of the DOF and energy barrier—including domain size, crystallinity, multiconformation coexistence, polar correlation, and other factors in bulk ferroelectrics—has reached a limit. We used organic crystal dimethylhexynediol (DMHD) as a three-dimensional sacrificial master to assemble polar conformations at the heterogeneous interface in poly(vinylidene fluoride)–based terpolymer. DMHD was evaporated, and the epitaxy-like process induced an ultrafinely distributed, multiconformation-coexisting polar interface exhibiting a giant conformational entropy. Under a low electric field, the interface-augmented terpolymer had a high entropy change of 100 J/(kg•K). This interface polarization strategy is generally applicable to dielectric capacitors, supercapacitors, and other related applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extratropical cyclones are critical weather systems affecting climate change in mid and high-latitude regions. Researching the characteristics, patterns, and movements of extratropical cyclones is helpful for improved prediction and understanding of global climate change. Currently, there are still great difficulties in predicting extratropical cyclones. Also, few prior studies have investigated the potential impact of Arctic sea ice on extratropical cyclone activity (ECA). This study utilizes updated ERA5 data and an improved ECA identification method to reveal ECA in the Pacific. The results demonstrate that the Pacific ECA primarily occurs during the cold season (November to March), and the North Pacific region has the maximum ECA. More remarkably, a strong linkage exists between the preceding summer-fall anomalous changes in the Arctic sea ice and the cold season Pacific ECA. We discover that Arctic sea ice could modify the local pressure field, changing the southern boundary of the Pacific sector polar vortex in winter, which in turn influences the intensity of the westerly jet stream and eventually impacts the Pacific ECA during the cold season. Our exploration will provide references for further study and prediction of ECA in the Pacific Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]