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Anthropogenic aerosols play a major role in the Earth–atmosphere system by influencing the Earth's radiative budget and precipitation and consequently the climate. The perturbation induced by changes in anthropogenic aerosols on the Earth's energy balance is quantified in terms of the effective radiative forcing (ERF). In this work, the present-day shortwave (SW), longwave (LW), and total (i.e., SW plus LW) ERF of anthropogenic aerosols is quantified using two different sets of experiments with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6): (a) time-slice pre-industrial perturbation simulations with fixed SSTs (piClim) and (b) transient historical simulations with time-evolving SSTs (histSST) over the historical period (1850–2014). ERF is decomposed into three components for both piClim and histSST experiments: (a) ERFARI, representing aerosol–radiation interactions; (b) ERFACI, accounting for aerosol–cloud interactions (including the semi-direct effect); and (c) ERFALB, which is due to temperature, humidity, and surface albedo changes caused by anthropogenic aerosols. We present spatial patterns at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and global weighted field means along with inter-model variability (1 standard deviation) for all SW, LW, and total ERF components (ERFARI, ERFACI, and ERFALB) and for every experiment used in this study. Moreover, the inter-model agreement and the robustness of our results are assessed using a comprehensive method as utilized in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Based on piClim experiments, the total present-day (2014) ERF from anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions is estimated to be −1.11 ± 0.26 W m−2, mostly due to the large contribution of ERFACI to the global mean and to the inter-model variability. Based on the histSST experiments for the present-day period (1995–2014), similar results are derived, with a global mean total aerosol ERF of −1.28 ± 0.37 W m−2 and dominating contributions from ERFACI. The spatial patterns for total ERF and its components are similar in both the piClim and histSST experiments. Furthermore, implementing a novel approach to determine geographically the driving factor of ERF, we show that ERFACI dominates over the largest part of the Earth and that ERFALB dominates mainly over the poles, while ERFARI dominates over certain reflective surfaces. Analysis of the inter-model variability in total aerosol ERF shows that SW ERFACI is the main source of uncertainty predominantly over land regions with significant changes in aerosol optical depth (AOD), with eastern Asia contributing mostly to the inter-model spread of both ERFARI and ERFACI. The global spatial patterns of total ERF and its components from individual aerosol species, such as sulfates, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC), are also calculated based on piClim experiments. The total ERF caused by sulfates (piClim-SO2) is estimated at −1.11 ± 0.31 W m−2, and the OC ERF (piClim-OC) is −0.35 ± 0.21 W m−2, while the ERF due to BC (piClim-BC) is 0.19 ± 0.18 W m−2. For sulfates and OC perturbation experiments, ERFACI dominates over the globe, whereas for BC perturbation experiments ERFARI dominates over land in the Northern Hemisphere and especially in the Arctic. Generally, sulfates dominate ERF spatial patterns, exerting a strongly negative ERF especially over industrialized regions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), such as North America, Europe, and eastern and southern Asia. Our analysis of the temporal evolution of ERF over the historical period (1850–2014) reveals that ERFACI clearly dominates over ERFARI and ERFALB for driving the total ERF temporal evolution. Moreover, since the mid-1980s, total ERF has become less negative over eastern North America and western and central Europe, while over eastern and southern Asia there is a steady increase in ERF magnitude towards more negative values until 2014.

Tropopause folds are the key process underlying stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone, and thus they affect tropospheric ozone levels and variability. In the present study we perform a process-oriented evaluation of Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis (CAMSRA) O3 during folding events over Europe and for the time period from 2003 to 2018. A 3-D labeling algorithm is applied to detect tropopause folds in CAMSRA, while ozonesonde data from WOUDC (World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre) and aircraft measurements from IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) are used for CAMSRA O3 evaluation. The profiles of observed and CAMSRA O3 concentrations indicate that CAMSRA reproduces the observed O3 increases in the troposphere during the examined folding events. Nevertheless, at most of the examined sites, CAMSRA overestimates the observed O3 concentrations, mostly at the upper portion of the observed increases, with a median fractional gross error (FGE) among the examined sites >0.2 above 400 hPa. The use of a control run without data assimilation reveals that the aforementioned overestimation of CAMSRA O3 arises from the data assimilation implementation. Overall, although data assimilation assists CAMSRA O3 to follow the observed O3 enhancements in the troposphere during the STT events, it introduces biases in the upper troposphere resulting in no clear quantitative improvement compared to the control run without data assimilation. Less biased assimilated O3 products, with finer vertical resolution in the troposphere, in addition to higher IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) vertical resolution, are expected to provide a better representation of O3 variability during tropopause folds.

The evolution of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2100 has been studied using data from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We evaluate long-term changes using coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate models, focusing on the CMIP Historical and ScenarioMIP ssp370 experiments, for which detailed tropospheric-ozone diagnostics were archived. The model ensemble has been evaluated against a suite of surface, sonde and satellite observations of the past several decades and found to reproduce well the salient spatial, seasonal and decadal variability and trends. The multi-model mean tropospheric-ozone burden increases from 247 ± 36 Tg in 1850 to a mean value of 356 ± 31 Tg for the period 2005–2014, an increase of 44 %. Modelled present-day values agree well with previous determinations (ACCENT: 336 ± 27 Tg; Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project, ACCMIP: 337 ± 23 Tg; Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report, TOAR: 340 ± 34 Tg). In the ssp370 experiments, the ozone burden increases to 416 ± 35 Tg by 2100. The ozone budget has been examined over the same period using lumped ozone production (PO3) and loss (LO3) diagnostics. Both ozone production and chemical loss terms increase steadily over the period 1850 to 2100, with net chemical production (PO3-LO3) reaching a maximum around the year 2000. The residual term, which contains contributions from stratosphere–troposphere transport reaches a minimum around the same time before recovering in the 21st century, while dry deposition increases steadily over the period 1850–2100. Differences between the model residual terms are explained in terms of variation in tropopause height and stratospheric ozone burden.

In mid-October 2017 Storm Ophelia crossed over western coastal Europe, inducing the combined transport of Saharan dust and Iberian biomass burning aerosols over several European areas. In this study we assess the performance of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) forecast systems during this complex aerosol transport event and the potential benefits that data assimilation and regional models could bring. To this end, CAMS global and regional forecast data are analysed and compared against observations from passive (MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer aboard Terra and Aqua) and active (CALIOP/CALIPSO: Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization aboard Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite sensors and ground-based measurements (EMEP: European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme). The analysis of the CAMS global forecast indicates that dust and smoke aerosols, discretely located on the warm and cold fronts of Ophelia, respectively, were affecting the aerosol atmospheric composition over Europe during the passage of the Storm. The observed MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) values are satisfactorily reproduced by the CAMS global forecast system, with a correlation coefficient of 0.77 and a fractional gross error (FGE) of 0.4. The comparison with a CAMS global control simulation not including data assimilation indicates a significant improvement in the bias due to data assimilation implementation, as the FGE decreases by 32 %. The qualitative evaluation of the IFS (Integrated Forecast System) dominant-aerosol type and location against the CALIPSO observations overall reveals a good agreement. Regarding the footprint on air quality, both CAMS global and regional forecast systems are generally able to reproduce the observed signal of increase in surface particulate matter concentrations. The regional component performs better in terms of bias and temporal variability, with the correlation deteriorating over forecast time. Yet, both products exhibit inconsistencies on the quantitative and temporal representation of the observed surface particulate matter enhancements, stressing the need for further development of the air quality forecast systems for even more accurate and timely support of citizens and policy-makers.

It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with “weak” (SSP3-7.0) versus “strong” (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) decrease by -2.2±0.32 µg m−3 and -4.6±0.88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015–2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95 % confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.25±0.12 K and 0.03±0.012 mm d−1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.66±0.20 K and 0.03±0.02 mm d−1), south Asia (0.47±0.16 K and 0.17±0.09 mm d−1), and east Asia (0.46±0.20 K and 0.15±0.06 mm d−1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0.59±0.36 K and 0.04±0.02 mm d−1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals.

In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014. In response to the pattern of all aerosols effective radiative forcing (ERF), the fast temperature responses are characterized by cooling over the continental areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest cooling over East Asia and India, sulfate being the dominant aerosol surface temperature driver for present-day emissions. In the Arctic there is a warming signal for winter in the ensemble mean of fast temperature responses, but the model-to-model variability is large, and it is presumably linked to aerosol-induced circulation changes. The largest fast precipitation responses are seen in the tropical belt regions, generally characterized by a reduction over continental regions and presumably a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. This is a characteristic and robust feature among most models in this study, associated with weakening of the monsoon systems around the globe (Asia, Africa and America) in response to hemispherically asymmetric cooling from a Northern Hemisphere aerosol perturbation, forcing possibly the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical precipitation to shift away from the cooled hemisphere despite that aerosols' effects on temperature and precipitation are only partly realized in these simulations as the sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. An interesting feature in aerosol-induced circulation changes is a characteristic dipole pattern with intensification of the Icelandic Low and an anticyclonic anomaly over southeastern Europe, inducing warm air advection towards the northern polar latitudes in winter.

In this work we present downscaling experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to test the sensitivity to resolving aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions on simulated regional climate for the EURO-CORDEX domain. The sensitivities mainly focus on the aerosol–radiation interactions (direct and semi-direct effects) with four different aerosol optical depth datasets (Tegen, MAC-v1, MACC, GOCART) being used and changes to the aerosol absorptivity (single scattering albedo) being examined. Moreover, part of the sensitivities also investigates aerosol–cloud interactions (indirect effect). Simulations have a resolution of 0.44∘ and are forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. A basic evaluation is performed in the context of seasonal-mean comparisons to ground-based (E-OBS) and satellite-based (CM SAF SARAH, CLARA) benchmark observational datasets. The impact of aerosols is calculated by comparing it against a simulation that has no aerosol effects. The implementation of aerosol–radiation interactions reduces the direct component of the incoming surface solar radiation by 20 %–30 % in all seasons, due to enhanced aerosol scattering and absorption. Moreover the aerosol–radiation interactions increase the diffuse component of surface solar radiation in both summer (30 %–40 %) and winter (5 %–8 %), whereas the overall downward solar radiation at the surface is attenuated by 3 %–8 %. The resulting aerosol radiative effect is negative and is comprised of the net effect from the combination of the highly negative direct aerosol effect (−17 to −5 W m−2) and the small positive changes in the cloud radiative effect (+5 W m−2), attributed to the semi-direct effect. The aerosol radiative effect is also stronger in summer (−12 W m−2) than in winter (−2 W m−2). We also show that modelling aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions can lead to small changes in cloudiness, mainly regarding low-level clouds, and circulation anomalies in the lower and mid-troposphere, which in some cases, mainly close to the Black Sea in autumn, can be of statistical significance. Precipitation is not affected in a consistent pattern throughout the year by the aerosol implementation, and changes do not exceed ±5 % except for the case of unrealistically absorbing aerosol. Temperature, on the other hand, systematically decreases by −0.1 to −0.5 ∘C due to aerosol–radiation interactions with regional changes that can be up to −1.5 ∘C.

Using a transient simulation for the period 1960–2100 with the state-of-the-art ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) global model and a tropopause fold identification algorithm, we explore the future projected changes in tropopause folds, stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) of ozone, and tropospheric ozone under the RCP6.0 scenario. Statistically significant changes in tropopause fold frequencies from 1970–1999 to 2070–2099 are identified in both hemispheres, regionally exceeding 3 %, and are associated with the projected changes in the position and intensity of the subtropical jet streams. A strengthening of ozone STT is projected for the future in both hemispheres, with an induced increase in transported stratospheric ozone tracer throughout the whole troposphere, reaching up to 10 nmol mol−1 in the upper troposphere, 8 nmol mol−1 in the middle troposphere, and 3 nmol mol−1 near the surface. Notably, the regions exhibiting the largest changes of ozone STT at 400 hPa coincide with those with the highest fold frequency changes, highlighting the role of the tropopause folding mechanism in STT processes under a changing climate. For both the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) and Afghanistan (AFG) regions, which are known as hotspots of fold activity and ozone STT during the summer period, the year-to-year variability of middle-tropospheric ozone with stratospheric origin is largely explained by the short-term variations in ozone at 150 hPa and tropopause fold frequency. Finally, ozone in the lower troposphere is projected to decrease under the RCP6.0 scenario during MAM (March, April, and May) and JJA (June, July, and August) in the Northern Hemisphere and during DJF (December, January, and February) in the Southern Hemisphere, due to the decline of ozone precursor emissions and the enhanced ozone loss from higher water vapour abundances, while in the rest of the troposphere ozone shows a remarkable increase owing mainly to the STT strengthening and the stratospheric ozone recovery.

Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) is an important natural source of tropospheric ozone, which can occasionally influence ground-level ozone concentrations relevant for air quality. Here, we analyse and evaluate the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global and regional forecast systems during a deep STT event over Europe for the time period from 4 to 9 January 2017. The predominant synoptic condition is described by a deep upper level trough over eastern and central Europe, favouring the formation of tropopause folding events along the jet stream axis and therefore the intrusion of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere. Both global and regional CAMS forecast products reproduce the hook-shaped streamer of ozone-rich and dry air in the middle troposphere depicted from the observed satellite images of water vapour. The CAMS global model successfully reproduces the folding of the tropopause at various European sites, such as Trapani (Italy), where a deep folding down to 550 hPa is seen. The stratospheric ozone intrusions into the troposphere observed by WOUDC ozonesonde and IAGOS aircraft measurements are satisfactorily forecasted up to 3 days in advance by the CAMS global model in terms of both temporal and vertical features of ozone. The fractional gross error (FGE) of CAMS ozone day 1 forecast between 300 and 500 hPa is 0.13 over Prague, while over Frankfurt it is 0.04 and 0.19, highlighting the contribution of data assimilation, which in most cases improves the model performance. Finally, the meteorological and chemical forcing of CAMS global forecast system in the CAMS regional forecast systems is found to be beneficial for predicting the enhanced ozone concentrations in the middle troposphere during a deep STT event.

The MACC reanalysis dust product is evaluated over Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East using the EARLINET-optimized CALIOP/CALIPSO pure dust satellite-based product LIVAS (2007–2012). MACC dust optical depth at 550 nm (DOD550) data are compared against LIVAS DOD532 observations. As only natural aerosol (dust and sea salt) profiles are available in MACC, here we focus on layers above 1 km a.s.l. to diminish the influence of sea salt particles that typically reside at low heights. So, MACC natural aerosol extinction coefficient profiles at 550 nm are compared against dust extinction coefficient profiles at 532 nm from LIVAS, assuming that the MACC natural aerosol profile data can be similar to the dust profile data, especially over pure continental regions. It is shown that the reanalysis data are capable of capturing the major dust hot spots in the area as the MACC DOD550 patterns are close to the LIVAS DOD532 patterns throughout the year. MACC overestimates DOD for regions with low dust loadings and underestimates DOD for regions with high dust loadings where DOD exceeds ∼ 0.3. The mean bias between the MACC and LIVAS DOD is 0.025 ( ∼ 25 %) over the whole domain. Both MACC and LIVAS capture the summer and spring high dust loadings, especially over northern Africa and the Middle East, and exhibit similar monthly structures despite the biases. In this study, dust extinction coefficient patterns are reported at four layers (layer 1: 1200–3000 m a.s.l., layer 2: 3000–4800 m a.s.l., layer 3: 4800–6600 m a.s.l. and layer 4: 6600–8400 m a.s.l.). The MACC and LIVAS extinction coefficient patterns are similar over areas characterized by high dust loadings for the first three layers. Within layer 4, MACC overestimates extinction coefficients consistently throughout the year over the whole domain. MACC overestimates extinction coefficients compared to LIVAS over regions away from the major dust sources while over regions close to the dust sources (the Sahara and Middle East) it underestimates strongly only for heights below ∼ 3–5 km a.s.l. depending on the period of the year. In general, it is shown that dust loadings appear over remote regions and at heights up to 9 km a.s.l. in MACC contrary to LIVAS. This could be due to the model performance and parameterizations of emissions and other processes, due to the assimilation of satellite aerosol measurements over dark surfaces only or due to a possible enhancement of aerosols by the MACC assimilation system.

In this study we use a new dust product developed using CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) observations and EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) measurements and methods to provide a 3-D multiyear analysis on the evolution of Saharan dust over North Africa and Europe. The product uses a CALIPSO L2 backscatter product corrected with a depolarization-based method to separate pure dust in external aerosol mixtures and a Saharan dust lidar ratio (LR) based on long-term EARLINET measurements to calculate the dust extinction profiles. The methodology is applied on a 9-year CALIPSO dataset (2007–2015) and the results are analyzed here to reveal for the first time the 3-D dust evolution and the seasonal patterns of dust over its transportation paths from the Sahara towards the Mediterranean and Continental Europe. During spring, the spatial distribution of dust shows a uniform pattern over the Sahara desert. The dust transport over the Mediterranean Sea results in mean dust optical depth (DOD) values up to 0.1. During summer, the dust activity is mostly shifted to the western part of the desert where mean DOD near the source is up to 0.6. Elevated dust plumes with mean extinction values between 10 and 75 Mm−1 are observed throughout the year at various heights between 2 and 6 km, extending up to latitudes of 40° N. Dust advection is identified even at latitudes of about 60° N, but this is due to rare events of episodic nature. Dust plumes of high DOD are also observed above the Balkans during the winter period and above northwest Europe during autumn at heights between 2 and 4 km, reaching mean extinction values up to 50 Mm−1. The dataset is considered unique with respect to its potential applications, including the evaluation of dust transport models and the estimation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) concentration profiles. Finally, the product can be used to study dust dynamics during transportation, since it is capable of revealing even fine dynamical features such as the particle uplifting and deposition on European mountainous ridges such as the Alps and Carpathian Mountains.

We investigate the sensitivity of aerosol representation in the regional climate model RegCM4 for two dust parameterizations for the period 2007–2014 over the Sahara and the Mediterranean. We apply two discretization methods of the dust size distribution keeping the total mass constant: (1) the default RegCM4 4-bin approach, where the size range of each bin is calculated using an equal, logarithmic separation of the total size range of dust, using the diameter of dust particles, and (2) a newly implemented 12-bin approach with each bin defined according to an isogradient method where the size ranges are dependent on the dry deposition velocity of dust particles. Increasing the number of transported dust size bins theoretically improves the representation of the physical properties of dust particles within the same size bin. Thus, more size bins improve the simulation of atmospheric processes. The radiative effects of dust over the area are discussed and evaluated with the CALIPSO dust optical depth (DOD). This study is among the first studies evaluating the vertical profile of simulated dust with a pure dust product. Reanalysis winds from ERA-Interim and the total precipitation flux from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational gridded database are used to evaluate and explain the discrepancies between model and observations. The new dust binning approach increases the dust column burden by 4 and 3 % for fine and coarse particles, respectively, which increases DOD by 10 % over the desert and the Mediterranean. Consequently, negative shortwave radiative forcing (RF) is enhanced by more than 10 % at the top of the atmosphere and by 1 to 5 % on the surface. Positive longwave RF locally increases by more than 0.1 W m−2 in a large portion of the Sahara, the northern part of the Arabian Peninsula and the Middle East. The four-bin isolog method is to some extent numerically efficient, nevertheless our work highlights that the simplified representation of the four-bin approach produces less dust optical depth and RF, a fact that should be taken into account by future studies of the same region.

This study characterizes the spatiotemporal variability and relative contribution of different types of aerosols to the aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Eastern Mediterranean as derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Terra (March 2000–December 2012) and Aqua (July 2002–December 2012) satellite instruments. For this purpose, a 0.1° × 0.1° gridded MODIS dataset was compiled and validated against sun photometric observations from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The high spatial resolution and long temporal coverage of the dataset allows for the determination of local hot spots like megacities, medium-sized cities, industrial zones and power plant complexes, seasonal variabilities and decadal averages. The average AOD at 550 nm (AOD550) for the entire region is ∼ 0.22 ± 0.19, with maximum values in summer and seasonal variabilities that can be attributed to precipitation, photochemical production of secondary organic aerosols, transport of pollution and smoke from biomass burning in central and eastern Europe and transport of dust from the Sahara and the Middle East. The MODIS data were analyzed together with data from other satellite sensors, reanalysis projects and a chemistry–aerosol-transport model using an optimized algorithm tailored for the region and capable of estimating the contribution of different aerosol types to the total AOD550. The spatial and temporal variability of anthropogenic, dust and fine-mode natural aerosols over land and anthropogenic, dust and marine aerosols over the sea is examined. The relative contribution of the different aerosol types to the total AOD550 exhibits a low/high seasonal variability over land/sea areas, respectively. Overall, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and fine-mode natural aerosols account for ∼ 51, ∼ 34 and ∼ 15 % of the total AOD550 over land, while, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and marine aerosols account ∼ 40, ∼ 34 and ∼ 26 % of the total AOD550 over the sea, based on MODIS Terra and Aqua observations.

We study the contribution of tropopause folds in the summertime pool of tropospheric ozone over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) with the aid of the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. Tropopause fold events in EMAC simulations were identified with a 3-D labeling algorithm that detects folds at grid points where multiple crossings of the dynamical tropopause are computed. Subsequently the events featuring the largest horizontal and vertical extent were selected for further study. For the selection of these events we identified a significant contribution of the stratospheric ozone reservoir to the high concentrations of ozone in the middle and lower free troposphere over the EMME. A distinct increase of ozone is found over the EMME in the middle troposphere during summer as a result of the fold activity, shifting towards the southeast and decreasing altitude. We find that the interannual variability of near-surface ozone over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) during summer is related to that of both tropopause folds and ozone in the free troposphere.

In this work, we assess the ability of RegCM4 regional climate model to simulate surface solar radiation (SSR) patterns over Europe. A decadal RegCM4 run (2000–2009) was implemented and evaluated against satellite-based observations from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF), showing that the model simulates adequately the SSR patterns over the region. The SSR bias between RegCM4 and CM SAF is +1.5 % for MFG (Meteosat First Generation) and +3.3 % for MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) observations. The relative contribution of parameters that determine the transmission of solar radiation within the atmosphere to the deviation appearing between RegCM4 and CM SAF SSR is also examined. Cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties such as cloud fractional cover (CFC), cloud optical thickness (COT) and cloud effective radius (Re) from RegCM4 are evaluated against data from CM SAF. Generally, RegCM4 underestimates CFC by 24.3 % and Re for liquid/ice clouds by 36.1 %/28.3 % and overestimates COT by 4.3 %. The same procedure is repeated for aerosol optical properties such as aerosol optical depth (AOD), asymmetry factor (ASY) and single-scattering albedo (SSA), as well as other parameters, including surface broadband albedo (ALB) and water vapor amount (WV), using data from MACv1 aerosol climatology, from CERES satellite sensors and from ERA-Interim reanalysis. It is shown here that the good agreement between RegCM4 and satellite-based SSR observations can be partially attributed to counteracting effects among the above mentioned parameters. The potential contribution of each parameter to the RegCM4–CM SAF SSR deviations is estimated with the combined use of the aforementioned data and a radiative transfer model (SBDART). CFC, COT and AOD are the major determinants of these deviations on a monthly basis; however, the other parameters also play an important role for specific regions and seasons. Overall, for the European domain, CFC, COT and AOD are the most important factors, since their underestimations and overestimations by RegCM4 cause an annual RegCM4–CM SAF SSR absolute deviation of 8.4, 3.8 and 4.5 %, respectively.

This work is an extended evaluation of near-surface ozone as part of the global reanalysis of atmospheric composition, produced within the European-funded project MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate). It includes an evaluation over the period 2003–2012 and provides an overall assessment of the modeling system performance with respect to near-surface ozone for specific European subregions. Measurements at rural locations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP) and the European Air Quality Database (AirBase) were used for the evaluation assessment. The fractional gross error of near-surface ozone reanalysis is on average 24 % over Europe, the highest found over Scandinavia (27 %) and the lowest over the Mediterranean marine stations (21 %). Near-surface ozone shows mostly a negative bias in winter and a positive bias during warm months. Assimilation reduces the bias in near-surface ozone in most of the European subregions – with the exception of Britain and Ireland and the Iberian Peninsula and its impact is mostly notable in winter. With respect to the seasonal cycle, the MACC reanalysis reproduces the photochemically driven broad spring-summer maximum of surface ozone of central and south Europe. However, it does not capture adequately the early spring peak and the shape of the seasonality at northern and north-eastern Europe. The diurnal range of surface ozone, which is as an indication of the local photochemical production processes, is reproduced fairly well, with a tendency for a small overestimation during the warm months for most subregions (especially in central and southern Europe). Possible reasons leading to discrepancies between the MACC reanalysis and observations are discussed.

In the current work we present six hindcast WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) simulations for the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) domain with different configurations in microphysics, convection and radiation for the time period 1990–2008. All regional model simulations are forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and have the same spatial resolution (0.44°). These simulations are evaluated for surface temperature, precipitation, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface and total cloud cover. The analysis of the WRF ensemble indicates systematic temperature and precipitation biases, which are linked to different physical mechanisms in the summer and winter seasons. Overestimation of total cloud cover and underestimation of downward shortwave radiation at the surface, mostly linked to the Grell–Devenyi convection and CAM (Community Atmosphere Model) radiation schemes, intensifies the negative bias in summer temperatures over northern Europe (max −2.5 °C). Conversely, a strong positive bias in downward shortwave radiation in summer over central (40–60%) and southern Europe mitigates the systematic cold bias over these regions, signifying a typical case of error compensation. Maximum winter cold biases are over northeastern Europe (−2.8 °C); this location suggests that land–atmosphere rather than cloud–radiation interactions are to blame. Precipitation is overestimated in summer by all model configurations, especially the higher quantiles which are associated with summertime deep cumulus convection. The largest precipitation biases are produced by the Kain–Fritsch convection scheme over the Mediterranean. Precipitation biases in winter are lower than those for summer in all model configurations (15–30%). The results of this study indicate the importance of evaluating not only the basic climatic parameters of interest for climate change applications (temperature and precipitation), but also other components of the energy and water cycle, in order to identify the sources of systematic biases, possible compensatory or masking mechanisms and suggest pathways for model improvement.

This study provides a new look at the observed and calculated long-term temperature changes from the lower troposphere to the lower stratosphere since 1958 over the Northern Hemisphere. The data sets include the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the Free University of Berlin (FU-Berlin) and the RICH radiosonde data sets as well as historical simulations with the CESM1-WACCM global model participating in CMIP5. The analysis is mainly based on monthly layer mean temperatures derived from geopotential height thicknesses in order to take advantage of the use of the independent FU-Berlin stratospheric data set of geopotential height data since 1957. This approach was followed to extend the records for the investigation of the stratospheric temperature trends to the earliest possible time. After removing the natural variability with an autoregressive multiple regression model our analysis shows that the period 1958–2011 can be divided into two distinct sub-periods of long-term temperature variability and trends: before and after 1980. By calculating trends for the summer time to reduce interannual variability, the two periods are as follows. From 1958 until 1979, a non-significant trend (0.06 ± 0.06 °C decade−1 for NCEP) and slightly cooling trends (−0.12 ± 0.06 °C decade−1 for RICH) are found in the lower troposphere. The second period from 1980 to the end of the records shows significant warming (0.25 ± 0.05 °C decade−1 for both NCEP and RICH). Above the tropopause a significant cooling trend is clearly seen in the lower stratosphere both in the pre-1980 period (−0.58 ± 0.17 °C decade−1 for NCEP, −0.30 ± 0.16 °C decade−1 for RICH and −0.48 ± 0.20 °C decade−1 for FU-Berlin) and the post-1980 period (−0.79 ± 0.18 °C decade−1 for NCEP, −0.66 ± 0.16 °C decade−1 for RICH and −0.82 ± 0.19 °C decade−1 for FU-Berlin). The cooling in the lower stratosphere persists throughout the year from the tropics up to 60° N. At polar latitudes competing dynamical and radiative processes reduce the statistical significance of these trends. Model results are in line with reanalysis and the observations, indicating a persistent cooling (−0.33 °C decade−1) in the lower stratosphere during summer before and after 1980; a feature that is also seen throughout the year. However, the lower stratosphere CESM1-WACCM modelled trends are generally lower than reanalysis and the observations. The contrasting effects of ozone depletion at polar latitudes in winter/spring and the anticipated strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation from man-made global warming at polar latitudes are discussed. Our results provide additional evidence for an early greenhouse cooling signal in the lower stratosphere before 1980, which appears well in advance relative to the tropospheric greenhouse warming signal. The suitability of early warning signals in the stratosphere relative to the troposphere is supported by the fact that the stratosphere is less sensitive to changes due to cloudiness, humidity and man-made aerosols. Our analysis also indicates that the relative contribution of the lower stratosphere versus the upper troposphere low-frequency variability is important for understanding the added value of the long-term tropopause variability related to human-induced global warming.

Observations show that the Mediterranean troposphere is characterized by a marked enhancement in summertime ozone, with a maximum over the eastern Mediterranean. This has been linked to enhanced photochemical ozone production and subsidence under cloud-free anticyclonic conditions. The eastern Mediterranean is among the regions with the highest levels of background tropospheric ozone worldwide. A 12 yr climatological analysis (1998–2009) of free-tropospheric ozone was carried out over the region based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-Interim reanalysis data and simulations with the EMAC (ECHAM5–MESSy) atmospheric chemistry–climate model. EMAC is nudged towards the ECMWF analysis data and includes a stratospheric ozone tracer. A characteristic summertime pool with high ozone concentrations is found in the middle troposphere over the eastern Mediterranean–Middle East (EMME) in the ERA-Interim ozone data, Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) satellite ozone data and simulations with EMAC. The enhanced ozone over the EMME during summer is a robust feature, extending down to lower free-tropospheric levels. The investigation of ozone in relation to potential vorticity and water vapour and the stratospheric ozone tracer indicates that the dominant mechanism causing the free-tropospheric ozone pool is the downward transport from the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, in association with the enhanced subsidence and the limited horizontal divergence observed over the region. The implications of these high free-tropospheric ozone levels on the seasonal cycle of near-surface ozone over the Mediterranean are discussed.

Regional climate-air quality decadal simulations over Europe were carried out with the RegCM3/CAMx modeling system for the time slice 1991–2000, in order to study the impact of different meteorological forcing on surface ozone. The RegCM3 regional climate model was firstly constrained by the ERA40 reanalysis dataset which is considered as an experiment with perfect meteorological boundary conditions and then it was constrained by the global circulation model ECHAM5. A number of meteorological parameters were examined including the 500 mb geopotential height, solar radiation, temperature, cloud liquid water path, planetary boundary layer height and surface wind. The different RegCM meteorological forcing resulted in changes of near surface ozone over Europe ranging between ± 4 ppb for winter and summer. The area showing the greatest sensitivity in O3 during winter is central and southern Europe while in summer central north continental Europe. The different meteorological forcing impacts on the atmospheric circulation, which in turn affects cloudiness and solar radiation, temperature, wind patterns and the meteorology depended biogenic emissions. For comparison reasons, the impact of chemical boundary conditions on surface ozone was additionally examined with a series of sensitivity studies, indicating that surface ozone changes are comparable to those caused by the different meteorological forcing. These findings suggest that, when it comes to regional climate-air quality simulations, the selection of external meteorological forcing can be as important as the selection of adequate chemical lateral boundary conditions.

High frequency of agricultural fires is observed every year during the summer months over SW Russia and Eastern Europe. This study investigates the initial injection height of aerosol generated by the fires over these regions during the biomass burning season, which determines the potential for long-range transport of the smoke. This information is critical for aerosol transport modeling, as it determines the smoke plume evolution. The study focuses on the period 2006–2008, and is based on observations made by the CALIOP instrument on board the NASA CALIPSO satellite. MODIS data are synergistically used for the detection of the fires and the characterization of their intensity. CALIPSO aerosol vertical distributions generated by the active fires are analyzed to investigate the aerosol top height which is considered dependent on the heat generated by the fires and can be associated with the initial injection height. Aerosol top heights of the vertically homogenous smoke layers are found to range between 1.6 and 5.9 km. Smoke injection heights from CALIPSO are compared with mixing layer heights taken by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), to investigate the direct injection of smoke particles into the free troposphere. Our results indicate that the aerosol plumes are observed within the boundary layer for the 50% of the cases examined. For the rest of the cases, the strong updrafts generated by the fires resulted to smoke injection heights greater than the ECMWF estimated mixing layer by 0.5 to 3.0 km, indicating a direct smoke injection into the free troposphere. The smoke injection height showed a dependence on the MODIS-Land Fire Radiative Power product which is indicative of the fire intensity, especially in the cases of lower static stability in the upper part of the boundary layer and the free troposphere.

In the present work it is investigated the direct shortwave effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the near surface temperature over Southeastern Europe and the atmospheric circulation during summer 2000. In summer 2000, a severe heat-wave and droughts affected many countries in the Balkans. The study is based on two yearly simulations with and without the aerosol feedback of the regional climate model RegCM3 coupled with a simplified aerosol model. The surface radiative forcing associated with the anthropogenic aerosols is negative throughout the European domain with the more negative values in Central and Central-eastern Europe. A basic pattern of the aerosol induced changes in air temperature at the lower troposphere is a decrease over Southeastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula (up to about 1.2°C) thus weakening the pattern of the climatic temperature anomalies of summer 2000. The aerosol induced changes in air temperature from the lower troposphere to upper troposphere are not correlated with the respective pattern of the surface radiative forcing implying the complexity of the mechanisms linking the aerosol radiative forcing with the induced atmospheric changes through dynamical feedbacks of aerosols on atmospheric circulation. Investigation of the aerosol induced changes in the circulation indicates a southward shift of the subtropical jet stream playing a dominant role for the decrease in near surface air temperature over Southeastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula. The southward shift of the jet exit region over the Balkan Peninsula causes a relative increase of the upward motion at the northern flank of the jet exit region, a relative increase of clouds, less solar radiation absorbed at the surface and hence relative cooler air temperatures in the lower troposphere between 45° N and 50° N. The southward extension of the lower troposphere aerosol induced negative temperature changes in the latitudinal band 35° N–45° N over the Balkan Peninsula is justified from the prevailing northerly flow advecting the relatively cooler air from the latitudinal band 45° N–50° N towards the lower latitudes. The present regional climate modeling study indicates the important role of anthropogenic aerosols for the regional climate and their dynamical feedback on atmospheric circulation.

The influence of smoke on the aerosol loading in the free troposphere over Thessaloniki, Greece is examined in this paper. Ten cases during 2001–2005 were identified when very high aerosol optical depth values in the free troposphere were observed with a UV-Raman lidar. Particle dispersion modeling (FLEXPART) and satellite hot spot fire detection (ATSR) showed that these high free tropospheric aerosol optical depths are mainly attributed to the advection of smoke plumes from biomass burning regions over Thessaloniki. The biomass burning regions were found to extend across Russia in the latitudinal belt between 45° N–55° N, as well as in Eastern Europe (Baltic countries, Western Russia, Belarus, and the Ukraine). The highest frequency of agricultural fires occurred during the summer season (mainly in August). The data collected allowed the optical characterization of the smoke aerosols that arrived over Greece, where limited information has so far been available. Two-wavelength backscatter lidar measurements showed that the backscatter-related Ångström exponent ranged between 0.5 and 2.4 indicating a variety of particle sizes. UV-Raman lidar measurements showed that for smoke particles the extinction to backscatter ratios (so-called lidar ratios) varied between 40 sr for small particles to 100 sr for large particles. Dispersion model estimations of the carbon monoxide tracer concentration profiles for smoke particles indicate that the variability of the optical parameters is a function of the age of the smoke plumes. This information could be useful on the lidar community for reducing uncertainty in the aerosol backscatter coefficient determination due to the lidar ratio assumption, starting from a simply elastic backscatter lidar as the first satellite-borne lidar CALIPSO.

This paper provides the overview of an integrated, multi-disciplinary effort to study the effects of the 29 March 2006 total solar eclipse on the environment, with special focus on the atmosphere. The eclipse has been visible over the Eastern Mediterranean, and on this occasion several research and academic institutes organised co-ordinated experimental campaigns, at different distances from eclipse totality and at various environments in terms of air quality. Detailed results and findings are presented in a number of component scientific papers included in a Special Issue of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The effects of the eclipse on meteorological parameters, though very clear, were shown to be controlled by local factors rather than the eclipse magnitudes, and the turbulence activity near surface was suppressed causing a decrease in the Planetary Boundary Layer. In addition to the above, the decrease in solar radiation has caused change to the photochemistry of the atmosphere, with night time chemistry dominating. The abrupt "switch off" of the sun, induced changes also in the ionosphere (140 up to 220 km) and the stratosphere. In the ionosphere, both photochemistry and dynamics resulted to changes in the reflection heights and the electron concentrations. Among the most important scientific findings from the experiments undertaken has been the experimental proof of eclipse induced thermal fluctuations in the ozone layer (Gravity Waves), due to the supersonic movement of the moon's shadow, for the first time with simultaneous measurements at three altitudes namely the troposphere, the stratosphere and the ionosphere. Within the challenging topics of the experiments has been the investigation of eclipse impacts on ecosystems (field crops and marine plankton). The rare event of a total solar eclipse provided the opportunity to evaluate 1 dimensional (1-D) and three dimensional (3-D) radiative transfer (in the atmosphere and underwater), mesoscale meteorological, regional air quality and photochemical box models, against measurements.

The EU CANDIDOZ project investigated the chemical and dynamical influences on decadal ozone trends focusing on the Northern Hemisphere. High quality long-term ozone data sets, satellite-based as well as ground-based, and the long-term meteorological reanalyses from ECMWF and NCEP are used together with advanced multiple regression models and atmospheric models to assess the relative roles of chemistry and transport in stratospheric ozone changes. This overall synthesis of the individual analyses in CANDIDOZ shows clearly one common feature in the NH mid latitudes and in the Arctic: an almost monotonic negative trend from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s followed by an increase. In most trend studies, the Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) which peaked in 1997 as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol was observed to describe ozone loss better than a simple linear trend. Furthermore, all individual analyses point to changes in dynamical drivers, such as the residual circulation (responsible for the meridional transport of ozone into middle and high latitudes) playing a key role in the observed turnaround. The changes in ozone transport are associated with variations in polar chemical ozone loss via heterogeneous ozone chemistry on PSCs (polar stratospheric clouds). Synoptic scale processes as represented by the new equivalent latitude proxy, by conventional tropopause altitude or by 250 hPa geopotential height have also been successfully linked to the recent ozone increases in the lowermost stratosphere. These show significant regional variation with a large impact over Europe and seem to be linked to changes in tropospheric climate patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. Some influence in recent ozone increases was also attributed to the rise in solar cycle number 23. Changes from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s were found in a number of characteristics of the Arctic vortex. However, only one trend was found when more recent years are also considered, namely the tendency for cold winters to become colder.

This study investigates the effects of the total solar eclipse of 29 March 2006 on surface air-quality levels over Greece based on observations at a number of sites in conjunction with chemical box modelling and 3-D air-quality modelling. Emphasis is given on surface ozone and other photooxidants at four Greek sites Kastelorizo, Finokalia (Crete), Pallini (Athens) and Thessaloniki, which are located at gradually increasing distances from the path of the eclipse totality and are characterized by different air pollution levels. The eclipse offered the opportunity to test our understanding of air pollution build-up and the response of the gas-phase chemistry of photo-oxidants during a photolytical perturbation using both a photochemical box model and a regional air-quality offline model based on the modeling system WRF/CAMx. At the relatively unpolluted sites of Kastelorizo and Finokalia no clear signal of the solar eclipse on surface O3, NO2 and NO concentrations can be deduced from the observations while there is no correlation of observed O3, NO2 and NO with observed global radiation. The box and regional model simulations for the two relatively unpolluted sites indicate that the calculated changes in net ozone production rates between eclipse and non eclipse conditions are rather small compared to the observed short-term ozone variability. Furthermore the simulated ozone lifetime is in the range of a few days at these sites and hence the solar eclipse effects on ozone can be easily masked by local and regional transport. At the polluted sites of Thessaloniki and Pallini, the solar eclipse effects on O3, NO2 and NO concentrations are revealed from both the measurements and modeling with the net effect being a decrease in O3 and NO and an increase in NO2 as NO2 formed from the reaction of O3 with NO while at the same time NO2 is not efficiently photolysed. This result is also supported by a positive correlation of observed global radiation with O3 and NO and a negative correlation with NO2. It is evident from the 3-D air quality modeling over Greece that the maximum effects of the eclipse on O3, NO2 and NO are reflected on the large urban agglomerations of Athens, and Thessaloniki where the maximum of the emissions occur.

The seasonal variability and the interannual variance explained by ENSO and NAO to cirrus cloud cover (CCC) are examined during the twenty-year period 1984–2004. CCC was found to be significantly correlated with vertical velocities and relative humidity from ECMWF/ERA40 in the tropics (correlations up to −0.7 and +0.7 at some locations, respectively) suggesting that variations in large-scale vertical winds and relative humidity fields can be the origin of up to half of the local variability in CCC over these regions. These correlations reflect mostly the seasonal cycle. Although the annual cycle is dominant in all latitudes and longitudes, peaking over the tropics and subtropics, its amplitude can be exceeded during strong El Nino/La Nina events. Over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean the interannual variance of CCC which can be explained by ENSO is about 6.8% and it is ~2.3 times larger than the amplitude of the annual cycle. Natural long-term trends in the tropics are generally small (about −0.3% cloud cover per decade) and possible manmade trends in those regions are also small. The contributions of NAO and QBO to the variance of CCC in the tropics are also small. In the northern mid-latitudes, on the other hand, the effect of NAO is more significant and can be very important regionally. Over northern Europe and the eastern part of the North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC) there is a small positive correlation between CCC and NAO index during the wintertime of about 0.3. In this region, the interannual variance of CCC explained by NAO is 2.6% and the amplitude of the annual cycle is 3.1%. Long-term trends over this region are about +1.6% cloud cover per decade and compare well with the observed manmade trends over congested air traffic regions in Europe and the North Atlantic as have been evidenced from earlier findings.

In this study we present the seasonal variability of ozone production efficiencies (EN), defined as the net number of ozone molecules produced per molecule of nitrogen oxides (nitrogen oxide (NO) + nitrogen dioxide (NO2)=NOx) oxidized to NOz (total reactive nitrogen (NOy)–NOx) determined from field measurements of a seven-year period (1998–2004) at the Swiss high-alpine research station Jungfraujoch (JFJ), 3580 m a.s.l. This dataset is a unique long-term data series of nitrogen levels in the free troposphere over Central Europe and hence it offers an excellent opportunity to perform such an analysis and provide further evidence to the photochemical origin of the ozone spring maximum at locations of the northern hemisphere distant from nearby pollution sources. Experimentally derived daily EN values have been selected for 571 days out of the 2557 days from 1998 to 2004, from which an average ozone production efficiency of 18.8±1.3 molecules of O3 produced per molecule of NOx oxidized was calculated. This value indicates the great potential and importance of photochemical ozone production in the free troposphere. The monthly means of experimentally derived daily EN values show a seasonal variation with lower values from May to August, which can be probably attributed to more efficient vertical transport of polluted air masses from the atmospheric boundary layer up to JFJ. In agreement, theoretically derived monthly EN values show similar seasonal variation. The ratio NOy/CO, a parameter to assess the aging process that has occurred in an air parcel, was used as a criterion to disaggregate the 571 selected days between undisturbed and disturbed free tropospheric (FT). The monthly means of experimentally derived EN values for the undisturbed FT conditions show a distinct seasonal cycle with higher values in the cold season from November to April. The EN values for undisturbed FT conditions are particularly higher than the respective monthly EN values for disturbed FT conditions from February to October. It should be noted that the monthly EN values of March (EN=35.8) and April (EN=34.9) are among the highest values throughout the year for undisturbed FT conditions at JFJ. These results highlight the key and possibly the dominant role for photochemistry in the observed build-up of tropospheric ozone in the winter-spring transition period.

A two-wavelength ultraviolet (289–316nm) ozone Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) system is used to perform ozone measurements in the free troposphere in the Eastern Mediterranean (Northern Greece). The ozone DIAL profiles obtained during a Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport (STT) event are compared to that acquired by an electrochemical ozonesonde, in the altitude range between 2 and 10 km. The measurement accuracy of these two instruments is also discussed. The mean difference between the ozone profiles obtained by the two techniques is of the order of 1.11 ppbv (1.86%), while the corresponding standard deviation is 4.69 ppbv (8.16%). A case study of an STT event which occurred on 29 November 2000 is presented and analyzed, using ozone lidar, satellite and meteorological data, as well as air mass back-trajectory analysis. During this STT event ozone mixing ratios of 55–65 ppbv were observed between 5 and 7 km height above sea level (a.s.l.). Stratospheric air was mixed with tropospheric air masses, leading to potential vorticity (PV) losses due to diabatic processes. The ozone DIAL system can be used for following STT events and small-scale mixing phenomena in the free troposphere, and for providing sequences of vertical ozone profiles in the free troposphere. Keywords. Atmospheric composition and structure (Evolution of the atmosphere; Instruments and techniques) – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (Middle atmosphere dynamics; Turbulence)

A wide range of measurements was carried out in central and southeastern Europe within the framework of the EU project STACCATO (Influence of Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange in a Changing Climate on Atmospheric Transport and Oxidation Capacity) with the principle goal to create a comprehensive data set on stratospheric air intrusions into the troposphere along a rather frequently observed pathway over central Europe from the North Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The measurements were based on predictions by suitable quasi-operational trajectory calculations using ECMWF forecast data. A predicted deep Stratosphere to Troposphere Transport (STT) event, encountered during the STACCATO period on 20-21 June 2001, was followed by the measurements network almost from its inception. Observations provide evidence that the intrusion affected large parts of central and southeastern Europe. Especially, the ozone lidar observations on 20-21 June 2001 at Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany captured the evolution of two marked tongues of high ozone with the first one descending to nearly 2 km, thus providing an excellent data set for model intercomparisons and validation. In addition, for the first time to our knowledge concurrent surface measurements of the cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be and 7Be and their ratio 10Be/7Be are presented together as stratospheric tracers in a case study of a stratospheric intrusion. The ozone tracer columns calculated with the FLEXPART model were found to be in good agreement with water vapour satellite images, capturing the evolution of the observed dry streamers of stratospheric origin. Furthermore, the time-height cross section of ozone tracer simulated with FLEXPART over Garmisch-Partenkirchen captures many details of the evolution of the two observed high-ozone filaments measured with the IFU lidar, thus demonstrating the considerable progress in model simulations. Finally, the modelled ozone (operationally available since October 1999) from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric model is shown to be in very good agreement with the observations during this case study, which provides the first successful validation of a chemical tracer that is derived operationally from a weather forecast model. This suggests that coupling chemistry and weather forecast models may significantly improve both weather and chemical forecasts in the future.

This work examines changes in cirrus cloud cover (CCC) in possible association with aviation activities at congested air corridors. The analysis is based on the latest version of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project D2 data set and covers the period 1984-1998. Over the studied areas, the effect of large-scale modes of natural climate variability such as ENSO, QBO and NAO as well as the possible influence of the tropopause variability, were first removed from the cloud data set in order to calculate long-term changes of observed cirrus cloudiness. The results show increasing trends in (CCC) between 1984 and 1998 over the high air traffic corridors of North America, North Atlantic and Europe. Of these upward trends, only in the summertime over the North Atlantic and only in the wintertime over North America are statistically significant (exceeding +2.0% per decade). Over adjacent locations with low air traffic, the calculated trends are statistically insignificant and in most cases negative both during winter and summer in the regions studied. These negative trends, over low air traffic regions, are consistent with the observed large scale negative trends seen in (CCC) over most of the northern middle latitudes and over the tropics. Moreover, further investigation of vertical velocities over high and low air traffic regions provide evidence that the trends of opposite signs in (CCC) over these regions, do not seem to be caused by different trends in dynamics. It is also shown that the longitudinal distribution of decadal changes in (CCC) along the latitude belt centered at the North Atlantic air corridor, parallels the spatial distribution of fuel consumption from highflying air traffic, providing an independent test of possible impact of aviation on contrail cirrus formation. The correlation between the fuel consumption and the longitudinal variability of (CCC) is significant (+0.7) over the middle latitudes but not over the tropics. This could be explained by the fact that over the tropics the variability of (CCC) is dominated by dynamics while at middle latitudes microphysics explain most of its variability. Results from this study are compared with other studies and for different periods of records and it appears that there exists general agreement as to the evidence of a possible aviation effect on high cloud positive trends over regions with congested air traffic.

This study examines early adolescent self-reported intentions about having sex during the next year. A total of 114 variables are investigated for possible associations with lower versus higher levels of intention about having sex. The sample consists of 306 early adolescents from several middle schools in a predominantly white, rural community in central Pennsylvania. Ages range from 10 to 15 years, mean = 12.6 years, with approximately equal numbers of boys and girls. Bivariate analyses measure the associations between the exploratory variables and levels of behavioral intention. The domains examined include attitudes, social norms, parenting practices, dating activities, self-efficacy, school and community activities, psychosocial experiences, substance use, prior sexual activity, communications, family structure, familial relationships, and life goals. The results present a profile of factors by their alignment toward lower, or higher, intentions to engage in sex. The profiles are further categorized by whether the factors represent attitudes, beliefs, and situations, or whether they represent behaviors, conditions, and practices. Finally, the profile also identifies those factors that appear to be unrelated to behavioral intentions. Taking these patterns into account can: (1) inform an understanding of how these factors operate in connection with early adolescent sexual onset, and (2) suggest how they may be incorporated by school social workers into either early detection or intervention strategies. A discussion examines these prospects in light of previous literature. (Contains 7 tables and 2 figures.)

Objective: To evaluate 3-month tobacco quit rates of young adult tobacco users randomized to 2 intervention conditions. Methods: Overall 192 non-treatment-seeking 18-to-24-year-old tobacco users received educational information and advice to quit smoking. Participants were then block randomized to 2 brief intervention conditions: (1) a telephone quitline (TQ) N90; or (2) a brief direct treatment intervention (BDTI) N102. Results: A 90-day follow-up evaluation found that 19.6 of BDTI and 10.2 of TQ participants reported 30-day point prevalence tobacco quit rates (chi-square 2.37, P.09). Conclusions: BDTI can help non-treatment-seeking, low SES, young adult tobacco users quit smoking.