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Energy storage scheduling problems, where a storage is operated to maximize its profit in response to a price signal, are essentially infinite-horizon optimization problems as storage systems operate continuously, without a foreseen end to their operation. Such problems can be solved to optimality with a rolling-horizon approach, provided that the planning horizon over which the problem is solved is long enough. Such a horizon is termed a forecast horizon. However, the length of the planning horizon is usually chosen arbitrarily for such applications. We introduce an easy-to-check condition that confirms whether a planning horizon is a forecast horizon, and which can be used to derive a bound on suboptimality when it is not the case. By way of an example, we demonstrate that the existence of forecast horizons is not guaranteed for this problem. We also derive a lower bound on the length of the minimum forecast horizon. We show how the condition introduced can be used as part of an algorithm to determine the minimum forecast horizon of the problem, which ensures the determination of optimal solutions at the lowest computational and forecasting costs. Finally, we provide insights into the implications of different planning horizons for a range of storage system characteristics.

In the context of particle therapy monitoring, we are developing a gamma-ray detector to determine the ion range in vivo from the measurement of particle time-of-flight. For this application, a beam monitor capable to tag in time the incident ion with a time resolution below 235 ps FWHM (100 ps rms) is required to provide a start signal for the acquisition. We have therefore developed a dedicated detector based on a fast organic scintillator (EJ-204) of 25x25x1 mm3 coupled to four SiPM strips that allow measuring the particle incident position by scintillation light sharing. The prototype was characterised with single protons of energies between 63 and 225 MeV at the MEDICYC and ProteusONE facilities of the Antoine Lacassagne proton therapy centre in Nice. We obtained a time resolution of 120 ps FWHM at 63 MeV, and a spatial resolution of ~2 mm rms for single particles. Two identical detectors also allowed to measure the MEDICYC proton energy with 0.3% accuracy.

The growing uncertainty from renewable power and electricity demand brings significant challenges to unit commitment (UC). While various advanced forecasting and optimization methods have been developed to predict better and address this uncertainty, most previous studies treat forecasting and optimization as separate tasks. This separation can lead to suboptimal results due to misalignment between the objectives of the two tasks. To overcome this challenge, we propose a robust UC framework that integrates the forecasting and optimization processes while ensuring statistical guarantees. In the forecasting stage, we combine multiple predictions derived from diverse data sources and methodologies for an improved prediction, aiming to optimize the UC performance. In the optimization stage, the combined prediction is used to construct an uncertainty set with statistical guarantees, based on which the robust UC model is formulated. The optimal robust UC solution provides feedback to refine the forecasting process, forming a closed loop. To solve the proposed integrated forecasting-optimization framework efficiently and effectively, we develop a neural network-based surrogate model for acceleration and introduce a reshaping method for the uncertainty set based on the optimization result to reduce conservativeness. Case studies on modified IEEE 30-bus and 118-bus systems demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach., Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures

Complex distribution shifts are the main obstacle to achieving accurate long-term time series forecasting. Several efforts have been conducted to capture the distribution characteristics and propose adaptive normalization techniques to alleviate the influence of distribution shifts. However, these methods neglect the intricate distribution dynamics observed from various scales and the evolving functions of distribution dynamics and normalized mapping relationships. To this end, we propose a novel model-agnostic Evolving Multi-Scale Normalization (EvoMSN) framework to tackle the distribution shift problem. Flexible normalization and denormalization are proposed based on the multi-scale statistics prediction module and adaptive ensembling. An evolving optimization strategy is designed to update the forecasting model and statistics prediction module collaboratively to track the shifting distributions. We evaluate the effectiveness of EvoMSN in improving the performance of five mainstream forecasting methods on benchmark datasets and also show its superiority compared to existing advanced normalization and online learning approaches. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/qindalin/EvoMSN.

We report the first measurement of the azimuthal anisotropy of J$/\psi$ at forward rapidity ($1.2<|\eta|<2.2$) in Au$+$Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}=200$ GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The data were collected by the PHENIX experiment in 2014 and 2016 with integrated luminosity of 14.5~nb$^{-1}$. The second Fourier coefficient ($v_2$) of the azimuthal distribution of $J/\psi$ is determined as a function of the transverse momentum ($p_T$) using the event-plane method. The measurements were performed for several selections of collision centrality: 0\%--50\%, 10\%--60\%, and 10\%-40\%. We find that in all cases the values of $v_2(p_T)$, which quantify the elliptic flow of J$/\psi$, are consistent with zero. The results are consistent with measurements at midrapidity, indicating no significant elliptic flow of the J$/\psi$ within the quark-gluon-plasma medium at collision energies of $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}=200$ GeV., Comment: 369 authors from 72 institutions, 12 pages, 7 figures, 5 tables. v1 is version submitted to Physical Review C. HEPdata tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.html

We present the first forward-rapidity measurements of elliptic anisotropy of open-heavy-flavor muons at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The measurements are based on data samples of Au$+$Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}=200$ GeV collected by the PHENIX experiment in 2014 and 2016 with integrated luminosity of 14.5~nb$^{-1}$. The measurements are performed in the pseudorapidity range $1.2<|\eta|<2$ and cover transverse momenta $1

As seasonal thermal energy storage emerges as an efficient solution to reduce CO2 emissions of buildings, challenges appear related to its optimal operation. In a system including short-term electricity storage, long-term heat storage, and where electricity and heat networks are connected through a heat pump, it becomes crucial to operate the system on two time scales. Based on real data from a university building, we simulate the operation of such a system over a year, comparing different strategies based on model predictive control (MPC). The first objective of this paper is to determine the minimum prediction horizon to retrieve the results of the full-horizon operation problem with cost minimization. The second objective is to evaluate a method that combines MPC with setting targets on the heat storage level at the end of the prediction horizon, based on historical data. For a prediction horizon of 6 days, the suboptimality gap with the full-horizon results is 4.31%, compared to 11.42% when using a prediction horizon of 42 days and fixing the final level to be equal to the initial level, which is a common approach.

Foundation models (FMs) are a popular topic of research in AI. Their ability to generalize to new tasks and datasets without retraining or needing an abundance of data makes them an appealing candidate for applications on specialist datasets. In this work, we compare the performance of FMs to finetuned pre-trained supervised models in the task of semantic segmentation on an entirely new dataset. We see that finetuned models consistently outperform the FMs tested, even in cases were data is scarce. We release the code and dataset for this work on GitHub., Comment: Accepted at ECCV 2024 Green Foundation Models workshop

The risk of missing data and subsequent incomplete data records at wind farms increases with the number of turbines and sensors. We propose here an imputation method that blends data-driven concepts with expert knowledge, by using the geometry of the wind farm in order to provide better estimates when performing Nearest Neighbor imputation. Our method relies on learning Laplacian eigenmaps out of the graph of the wind farm through spectral graph theory. These learned representations can be based on the wind farm layout only, or additionally account for information provided by collected data. The related weighted graph is allowed to change with time and can be tracked in an online fashion. Application to the Westermost Rough offshore wind farm shows significant improvement over approaches that do not account for the wind farm layout information., Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, 7 tables

The two main competing theories proposed to explain the formation of massive ($>10$M$_\odot$) stars -- competitive accretion and monolithic core collapse -- make different observable predictions for the environment of the massive stars during, and immediately after, their formation. Proponents of competitive accretion have long predicted that the most massive stars should have a different spatial distribution to lower-mass stars, either through the stars being mass segregated, or being in areas of higher relative densities, or sitting deeper in gravitational potential wells. We test these predictions by analysing a suite of SPH simulations where star clusters form massive stars via competitive accretion with and without feedback. We find that the most massive stars have higher relative densities, and sit in deeper potential wells, only in simulations in which feedback is not present. When feedback is included, only half of the simulations have the massive stars residing in deeper potential wells, and there are no other distinguishing signals in their spatial distributions. Intriguingly, in our simple models for monolithic core collapse, the massive stars may also end up in deeper potential wells, because if massive cores fragment the stars are still massive, and dominate their local environs. We find no robust diagnostic test in the spatial distributions of massive stars that can distinguish their formation mechanisms, and so other predictions for distinguishing between competitive accretion and monolithic collapse are required., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, with an Appendix containing a further 18 figures showing all the SPH simulation results. Accepted for publication in ApJ

High-momentum two-particle correlations are a useful tool for studying jet-quenching effects in the quark-gluon plasma. Angular correlations between neutral-pion triggers and charged hadrons with transverse momenta in the range 4--12~GeV/$c$ and 0.5--7~GeV/$c$, respectively, have been measured by the PHENIX experiment in 2014 for Au$+$Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}=200$~GeV. Suppression is observed in the yield of high-momentum jet fragments opposite the trigger particle, which indicates jet suppression stemming from in-medium partonic energy loss, while enhancement is observed for low-momentum particles. The ratio and differences between the yield in Au$+$Au collisions and $p$$+$$p$ collisions, $I_{AA}$ and $\Delta_{AA}$, as a function of the trigger-hadron azimuthal separation, $\Delta\phi$, are measured for the first time at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. These results better quantify how the yield of low-$p_T$ associated hadrons is enhanced at wide angle, which is crucial for studying energy loss as well as medium-response effects., Comment: 535 authors from 84 institutions, 12 pages, 8 figures. v2 is version accepted for publication in Physical Review C. HEPdata tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.html

This paper proposes a novel capacity credit evaluation framework to quantify the contribution of generalized energy storage (GES) to resource adequacy, considering both decision-independent uncertainty (DIU) and decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU). To this end, we establish a market-oriented risk-averse re-dispatch method to capture the cross-market reliable operation of GES. The proposed method is sequentially implemented along with the Monte Carlo simulation process, coordinating the pre-dispatched price arbitrage and capacity withholding in the energy market with adequacy-oriented re-dispatch during capacity market calls. In addition to DIUs in operational states and baseline behavior, we explicitly address the inherent DDU of GES (i.e., the uncertainty of available discharge capacity affected by the incentives and accumulated discomfort) during the re-dispatch stage using the proposed adaptive data-driven chance-constrained approach. Furthermore, a capacity credit metric called equivalent storage capacity substitution is introduced to quantify the equivalent deterministic storage capacity of uncertain GES. Simulations on the modified IEEE RTS-79 benchmark system demonstrate that the proposed method yields accurate capacity credit and improved economic performance. Key factors impacting GES's capacity credit are discussed with insights into capacity market decision-making., Comment: This is a manuscript submitted to IEEE Transcations on Power Systems

Improving the future of healthcare starts by better understanding the current actual practices in hospital settings. This motivates the objective of discovering typical care pathways from patient data. Revealing typical care pathways can be achieved through clustering. The difficulty in clustering care pathways, represented by sequences of timestamped events, lies in defining a semantically appropriate metric and clustering algorithms. In this article, we adapt two methods developed for time series to the clustering of timed sequences: the drop-DTW metric and the DBA approach for the construction of averaged time sequences. These methods are then applied in clustering algorithms to propose original and sound clustering algorithms for timed sequences. This approach is experimented with and evaluated on synthetic and real-world data.

Machine learning techniques have been successfully used in probabilistic wind power forecasting. However, the issue of missing values within datasets due to sensor failure, for instance, has been overlooked for a long time. Although it is natural to consider addressing this issue by imputing missing values before model estimation and forecasting, we suggest treating missing values and forecasting targets indifferently and predicting all unknown values simultaneously based on observations. In this paper, we offer an efficient probabilistic forecasting approach by estimating the joint distribution of features and targets based on a generative model. It is free of preprocessing, and thus avoids introducing potential errors. Compared with the traditional "impute, then predict" pipeline, the proposed approach achieves better performance in terms of continuous ranked probability score., Comment: 8 pages, to be presented at Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC) 2024

This paper studies how to aggregate prosumers (or large consumers) and their collective decisions in electricity markets, with a focus on fairness. Fairness is essential for prosumers to participate in aggregation schemes. Some prosumers may not be able to access the energy market directly, even though it would be beneficial for them. Therefore, new companies offer to aggregate them and promise to treat them fairly. This leads to a fair resource allocation problem. We propose to use acceptability constraints to guarantee that each prosumer gains from the aggregation. Moreover, we aim to distribute the costs and benefits fairly, taking into account the multi-period and uncertain nature of the problem. Rather than using financial mechanisms to adjust for fairness issues, we focus on various objectives and constraints, within decision problems, that achieve fairness by design. We start from a simple single-period and deterministic model, and then generalize it to a dynamic and stochastic setting using, e.g., stochastic dominance constraints.

Energy forecasting is pivotal in energy systems, by providing fundamentals for operation, with different horizons and resolutions. Though energy forecasting has been widely studied for capturing temporal information, very few works concentrate on the frequency information provided by forecasts. They are consequently often limited to single-resolution applications (e.g., hourly). Here, we propose a unified energy forecasting framework based on Laplace transform in the multi-resolution context. The forecasts can be seamlessly produced at different desired resolutions without re-training or post-processing. Case studies on both energy demand and supply data show that the forecasts from our proposed method can provide accurate information in both time and frequency domains. Across the resolutions, the forecasts also demonstrate high consistency. More importantly, we explore the operational effects of our produced forecasts in the day-ahead and intra-day energy scheduling. The relationship between (i) errors in both time and frequency domains and (ii) operational value of the forecasts is analysed. Significant operational benefits are obtained.

The PHENIX experiment has performed a systematic study of identified charged-hadron ($\pi^\pm$, $K^\pm$, $p$, $\bar{p}$) production at midrapidity in $p$$+$Al, $^3$He$+$Au, Cu$+$Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}=200$ GeV and U$+$U collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}=193$ GeV. Identified charged-hadron invariant transverse-momentum ($p_T$) and transverse-mass ($m_T$) spectra are presented and interpreted in terms of radially expanding thermalized systems. The particle ratios of $K/\pi$ and $p/\pi$ have been measured in different centrality ranges of large (Cu$+$Au, U$+$U) and small ($p$$+$Al, $^3$He$+$Au) collision systems. The values of $K/\pi$ ratios measured in all considered collision systems were found to be consistent with those measured in $p$$+$$p$ collisions. However the values of $p/\pi$ ratios measured in large collision systems reach the values of $\approx0.6$, which is $\approx2$ times larger than in $p$$+$$p$ collisions. These results can be qualitatively understood in terms of the baryon enhancement expected from hadronization by recombination. Identified charged-hadron nuclear-modification factors ($R_{AB}$) are also presented. Enhancement of proton $R_{AB}$ values over meson $R_{AB}$ values was observed in central $^3$He$+$Au, Cu$+$Au, and U$+$U collisions. The proton $R_{AB}$ values measured in $p$$+$Al collision system were found to be consistent with $R_{AB}$ values of $\phi$, $\pi^\pm$, $K^\pm$, and $\pi^0$ mesons, which may indicate that the size of the system produced in $p$$+$Al collisions is too small for recombination to cause a noticeable increase in proton production., Comment: 480 authors from 78 institutions, 18 pages, 6 tables, 16 figures. v2 is version accepted for publication in Physical Review C. HEPdata tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.html

Data markets facilitate decentralized data exchange for applications such as prediction, learning, or inference. The design of these markets is challenged by varying privacy preferences as well as data similarity among data owners. Related works have often overlooked how data similarity impacts pricing and data value through statistical information leakage. We demonstrate that data similarity and privacy preferences are integral to market design and propose a query-response protocol using local differential privacy for a two-party data acquisition mechanism. In our regression data market model, we analyze strategic interactions between privacy-aware owners and the learner as a Stackelberg game over the asked price and privacy factor. Finally, we numerically evaluate how data similarity affects market participation and traded data value., Comment: Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems

Although machine learning tasks are highly sensitive to the quality of input data, relevant datasets can often be challenging for firms to acquire, especially when held privately by a variety of owners. For instance, if these owners are competitors in a downstream market, they may be reluctant to share information. Focusing on supervised learning for regression tasks, we develop a regression market to provide a monetary incentive for data sharing. Our mechanism adopts a Bayesian framework, allowing us to consider a more general class of regression tasks. We present a thorough exploration of the market properties, and show that similar proposals in literature expose the market agents to sizeable financial risks, which can be mitigated in our setup., Comment: 35 pages, 11 figures, 3 tables. Published in Journal of Machine Learning Research (2024)

Despite widespread adoption of machine learning throughout industry, many firms face a common challenge: relevant datasets are typically distributed amongst market competitors that are reluctant to share information. Recent works propose data markets to provide monetary incentives for collaborative machine learning, where agents share features with each other and are rewarded based on their contribution to improving the predictions others. These contributions are determined by their relative Shapley value, which is computed by treating features as players and their interactions as a characteristic function game. However, in its standard form, this setup further provides an incentive for agents to replicate their data and act under multiple false identities in order to increase their own revenue and diminish that of others, restricting their use in practice. In this work, we develop a replication-robust data market for supervised learning problems. We adopt Pearl's do-calculus from causal reasoning to refine the characteristic function game by differentiating between observational and interventional conditional probabilities. By doing this, we derive Shapley value-based rewards that are robust to this malicious replication by design, whilst preserving desirable market properties., Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures

The paper introduces a new methodology for assessing on-line the prediction risk of short-term wind power forecasts. The first part of this methodology consists in computing confidence intervals with a confidence level defined by the end-user. The resampling approach is used for this purpose since it permits to avoid a restrictive hypothesis on the distribution of the errors. It has been however appropriately adapted for the wind power prediction problem taking into account the dependency of the errors on the level of predicted power through appropriately defined fuzzy sets. The second part of the proposed methodology introduces two indices, named as MRI and PRI, that quantify the meteorological risk by measuring the spread of multi-scenario Numerical Weather Predictions and wind power predictions respectively. The multi-scenario forecasts considered here are based on the 'poor man's' ensembles approach. The two indices are used either to fine-tune the confidence intervals or to give signals to the operator on the prediction risk, i.e. the probabilities for the occurrence of high prediction errors depending on the weather stability. A relation between these indices and the level of prediction error is shown. Evaluation results over a three-year period on the case of a wind farm in Denmark and over a one-year period on the case of several farms in Ireland are given. The proposed methodology has an operational nature and can be applied to all kinds of wind power forecasting models

We consider a new framework where a continuous, though bounded, random variable has unobserved bounds that vary over time. In the context of univariate time series, we look at the bounds as parameters of the distribution of the bounded random variable. We introduce an extended log-likelihood estimation and design algorithms to track the bound through online maximum likelihood estimation. Since the resulting optimization problem is not convex, we make use of recent theoretical results on Normalized Gradient Descent (NGD) for quasiconvex optimization, to eventually derive an Online Normalized Gradient Descent algorithm. We illustrate and discuss the workings of our approach based on both simulation studies and a real-world wind power forecasting problem., Comment: 43 pages, 9 figures

This study proposes a simulation framework of procurement operations in the container logistics industry that can support the development of dynamic procurement strategies. The idea is inspired by the success of Passenger Origin-Destination Simulator (PODS) in the field of airline revenue management. By and large, research in procurement has focused on the optimisation of purchasing decisions, i.e., when-to-order and supplier selection, but a principled approach to procurement operations is lacking. We fill this gap by developing a probabilistic model of a procurement system. A discrete-event simulation logic is used to drive the evolution of the system. In a small case study, we use the simulation to deliver insights by comparing different supplier selection policies in a dynamic spot market environment. Policies based on contextual multi-armed bandits are seen to be robust to limited access to the information that determines the distribution of the outcome. This paper provides a pool of modelling ideas for simulation and observational studies. Moreover, the probabilistic formulation paves the way for advanced machine learning techniques and data-driven optimisation in procurement.

We here present a stepping stone towards a deeper understanding of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in the form of a theory of learning in linear CNNs. Through analyzing the gradient descent equations, we discover that the evolution of the network during training is determined by the interplay between the dataset structure and the convolutional network structure. We show that linear CNNs discover the statistical structure of the dataset with non-linear, ordered, stage-like transitions, and that the speed of discovery changes depending on the relationship between the dataset and the convolutional network structure. Moreover, we find that this interplay lies at the heart of what we call the ``dominant frequency bias'', where linear CNNs arrive at these discoveries using only the dominant frequencies of the different structural parts present in the dataset. We furthermore provide experiments that show how our theory relates to deep, non-linear CNNs used in practice. Our findings shed new light on the inner working of CNNs, and can help explain their shortcut learning and their tendency to rely on texture instead of shape.

Despite their growing popularity, data-driven models of real-world dynamical systems require lots of data. However, due to sensing limitations as well as privacy concerns, this data is not always available, especially in domains such as energy. Pre-trained models using data gathered in similar contexts have shown enormous potential in addressing these concerns: they can improve predictive accuracy at a much lower observational data expense. Theoretically, due to the risk posed by negative transfer, this improvement is however neither uniform for all agents nor is it guaranteed. In this paper, using data from several distributed energy resources, we investigate and report preliminary findings on several key questions in this regard. First, we evaluate the improvement in predictive accuracy due to pre-trained models, both with and without fine-tuning. Subsequently, we consider the question of fairness: do pre-trained models create equal improvements for heterogeneous agents, and how does this translate to downstream utility? Answering these questions can help enable improvements in the creation, fine-tuning, and adoption of such pre-trained models.

Should the organization, design and functioning of electricity markets be taken for granted? Definitely not. While decades of evolution of electricity markets in countries that committed early to restructure their electric power sector made us believe that we may have found the right and future-proof model, the substantially and rapidly evolving context of our power and energy systems is challenging this idea in many ways. Actually, that situation brings both challenges and opportunities. Challenges include accommodation of renewable energy generation, decentralization and support to investment, while opportunities are mainly that advances in technical and social sciences provide us with many more options in terms of future market design. We here take a holistic point of view, by trying to understand where we are coming from with electricity markets and where we may be going. Future electricity markets should be made fit for purpose by considering them as a way to organize and operate a socio-techno-economic system.

The increasing use of renewable energy sources (RESs) and responsive loads has made power systems more uncertain. Meanwhile, thanks to the development of advanced metering and forecasting technologies, predictions by RESs and load owners are now attainable. Many recent studies have revealed that pooling the predictions from RESs and loads can help the operators predict more accurately and make better dispatch decisions. However, how the prediction purchase decisions are made during the dispatch processes needs further investigation. This paper fills the research gap by proposing a novel robust generation dispatch model considering the purchase and use of predictions from RESs and loads. The prediction purchase decisions are made in the first stage, which influence the accuracy of predictions from RESs and loads, and further the uncertainty set and the worst-case second-stage dispatch performance. This two-stage procedure is essentially a robust optimization problem with decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU). A mapping-based column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm is developed to overcome the potential failures of traditional solution methods in detecting feasibility, guaranteeing convergence, and reaching optimal strategies under DDU. Case studies demonstrate the effectiveness, necessity, and scalability of the proposed model and algorithm., Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures

Convex optimization finds many real-life applications, where--optimized on real data--optimization results may expose private data attributes (e.g., individual health records, commercial information), thus leading to privacy breaches. To avoid these breaches and formally guarantee privacy to optimization data owners, we develop a new privacy-preserving perturbation strategy for convex optimization programs by combining stochastic (chance-constrained) programming and differential privacy. Unlike standard noise-additive strategies, which perturb either optimization data or optimization results, we express the optimization variables as functions of the random perturbation using linear decision rules; we then optimize these rules to accommodate the perturbation within the problem's feasible region by enforcing chance constraints. This way, the perturbation is feasible and makes different, yet adjacent in the sense of a given distance function, optimization datasets statistically similar in randomized optimization results, thereby enabling probabilistic differential privacy guarantees. The chance-constrained optimization additionally internalizes the conditional value-at-risk measure to model the tolerance towards the worst-case realizations of the optimality loss w.r.t. the non-private solution. We demonstrate the privacy properties of our perturbation strategy analytically and through optimization and machine learning applications.

Renewable energy generation is offered through electricity markets, quite some time in advance. This then leads to a problem of decision-making under uncertainty, which may be seen as a newsvendor problem. Contrarily to the conventional case for which underage and overage penalties are known, such penalties in the case of electricity markets are unknown, and difficult to estimate. In addition, one is actually only penalized for either overage or underage, not both. Consequently, we look at a slightly different form of a newsvendor problem, for a price-taker participant offering in electricity markets, which we refer to as Bernoulli newsvendor problem. After showing that its solution is consistent with that for the classical newsvendor problem, we then introduce distributionally robust versions, with ambiguity possibly about both the probabilistic forecasts for power generation and the chance of success of the Bernoulli variable. Both versions of the distributionally robust Bernoulli newsvendor problem admit closed-form solutions. We finally use simulation studies, as well as a real-world case-study application, to illustrate the workings and benefits from the approach.

We propose and develop a new algorithm for trading wind energy in electricity markets, within an online learning and optimization framework. In particular, we combine a component-wise adaptive variant of the gradient descent algorithm with recent advances in the feature-driven newsvendor model. This results in an online offering approach capable of leveraging data-rich environments, while adapting to the nonstationary characteristics of energy generation and electricity markets, also with a minimal computational burden. The performance of our approach is analyzed based on several numerical experiments, showing both better adaptability to nonstationary uncertain parameters and significant economic gains.

This paper considers a market for trading Internet of Things (IoT) data that is used to train machine learning models. The data, either raw or processed, is supplied to the market platform through a network and the price of such data is controlled based on the value it brings to the machine learning model. We explore the correlation property of data in a game-theoretical setting to eventually derive a simplified distributed solution for a data trading mechanism that emphasizes the mutual benefit of devices and the market. The key proposal is an efficient algorithm for markets that jointly addresses the challenges of availability and heterogeneity in participation, as well as the transfer of trust and the economic value of data exchange in IoT networks. The proposed approach establishes the data market by reinforcing collaboration opportunities between device with correlated data to avoid information leakage. Therein, we develop a network-wide optimization problem that maximizes the social value of coalition among the IoT devices of similar data types; at the same time, it minimizes the cost due to network externalities, i.e., the impact of information leakage due to data correlation, as well as the opportunity costs. Finally, we reveal the structure of the formulated problem as a distributed coalition game and solve it following the simplified split-and-merge algorithm. Simulation results show the efficacy of our proposed mechanism design toward a trusted IoT data market, with up to 32.72% gain in the average payoff for each seller., Comment: 15 pages. 12 figures. This paper has been accepted for publication in IEEE Internet of Things Journal. Copyright may change without notice

We describe an architecture for a decentralised data market for applications in which agents are incentivised to collaborate to crowd-source their data. The architecture is designed to reward data that furthers the market's collective goal, and distributes reward fairly to all those that contribute with their data. We show that the architecture is resilient to Sybil, wormhole, and data poisoning attacks. In order to evaluate the resilience of the architecture, we characterise its breakdown points for various adversarial threat models in an automotive use case., Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures

We present a data-driven approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting based on conditional normalizing flow (CNF). In contrast with the existing, this approach is distribution-free (as for non-parametric and quantile-based approaches) and can directly yield continuous probability densities, hence avoiding quantile crossing. It relies on a base distribution and a set of bijective mappings. Both the shape parameters of the base distribution and the bijective mappings are approximated with neural networks. Spline-based conditional normalizing flow is considered owing to its non-affine characteristics. Over the training phase, the model sequentially maps input examples onto samples of base distribution, given the conditional contexts, where parameters are estimated through maximum likelihood. To issue probabilistic forecasts, one eventually maps samples of the base distribution into samples of a desired distribution. Case studies based on open datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, and allows us to discuss its advantages and caveats with respect to the state of the art., Comment: The second revision to IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy

In many areas of industry and society, e.g., energy, healthcare, logistics, agents collect vast amounts of data that they deem proprietary. These data owners extract predictive information of varying quality and relevance from data depending on quantity, inherent information content, and their own technical expertise. Aggregating these data and heterogeneous predictive skills, which are distributed in terms of ownership, can result in a higher collective value for a prediction task. In this paper, we envision a platform for improving predictions via implicit pooling of private information in return for possible remuneration. Specifically, we design a wagering-based forecast elicitation market platform, where a buyer intending to improve their forecasts posts a prediction task, and sellers respond to it with their forecast reports and wagers. This market delivers an aggregated forecast to the buyer (pre-event) and allocates a payoff to the sellers (post-event) for their contribution. We propose a payoff mechanism and prove that it satisfies several desirable economic properties, including those specific to electronic platforms. Furthermore, we discuss the properties of the forecast aggregation operator and scoring rules to emphasize their effect on the sellers' payoff. Finally, we provide numerical examples to illustrate the structure and properties of the proposed market platform.

The measurement of the direct-photon spectrum from Au$+$Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}=200$ GeV is presented by the PHENIX collaboration using the external-photon-conversion technique for 0\%--93\% central collisions in a transverse-momentum ($p_T$) range of 0.8--10 GeV/$c$. An excess of direct photons, above prompt-photon production from hard-scattering processes, is observed for $p_T<6$ GeV/$c$. Nonprompt direct photons are measured by subtracting the prompt component, which is estimated as $N_{\rm coll}$-scaled direct photons from $p$$+$$p$ collisions at 200 GeV, from the direct-photon spectrum. Results are obtained for $0.8

The invariant yield of electrons from open-heavy-flavor decays for $1