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We examine the variation in the radius of the auroral oval, as measured from auroral images gathered by the Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) spacecraft, in response to solar wind inputs measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for the two year interval June 2000 to May 2002. Our main finding is that the oval radius increases when the ring current, as measured by the Sym-H index, is intensified during geomagnetic storms. We discuss our findings within the context of the expanding/contracting polar cap paradigm, in terms of a modification of substorm onset conditions by the magnetic perturbation associated with the ring current.

We perform two superposed epoch analyses of the auroral evolution during substorms using the FUV instrument on the Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Explorer (IMAGE) spacecraft. The larger of the two studies includes nearly 2000 substorms. We subdivide the substorms by onset latitude, a measure of the open magnetic flux in the magnetosphere, and determine average auroral images before and after substorm onset, for both electron and proton aurora. Our results indicate that substorms are more intense in terms of auroral brightness when the open flux content of the magnetosphere is larger, and that magnetic flux closure is more significant. The increase in auroral brightness at onset is larger for electrons than protons. We also show that there is a dawn-dusk offset in the location of the electron and proton aurora that mirrors the relative locations of the region 1 and region 2 current systems. Superposed epoch analyses of the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic indices for the substorms under study indicate that dayside reconnection is expected to occur at a faster rate prior to low latitude onsets, but also that the ring current is enhanced for these events.

A statistical comparison of the latitude of the open/closed magnetic field line boundary (OCB) as estimated from the three far ultraviolet (FUV) detectors onboard the IMAGE spacecraft (the Wideband Imaging camera, WIC, and the Spectrographic Imagers, SI-12 and SI-13) has been carried out over all magnetic local times. A total of over 400 000 OCB estimations were compared from December 2000 and January and December of 2001–2002. The modal latitude difference between the FUV OCB proxies from the three detectors is small,

Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, Bz. Predicting the strength and duration of Bz inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called Bz problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, Bz, and resulting disturbance storm time (Dst) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (<1 au). On 2012 June 12–16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6° away from the Sun–Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA–Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX, resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind. Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: −96 and −114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: −71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 ± 23 km s−1; observed: 488 ± 30 km s−1), and for the timing (6 ± 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun–Earth line. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]