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Abstract Background Bacterial antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global threat to both humans and livestock. Despite this, there is limited global consensus on data-informed, priority areas for intervention in both sectors. We compare current livestock AMR data collection efforts with other variables pertinent to human and livestock AMR to identify critical data gaps and mutual priorities. Methods We globally synthesized livestock AMR data from open-source surveillance reports and point prevalence surveys stratified for six pathogens (Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, non-typhoidal Salmonella, Campylobacter spp., Enterococcus faecalis, Enterococcus faecium) and eleven antimicrobial classes important in human and veterinary use, published between 2000 and 2020. We also included all livestock species represented in the data: cattle, chickens, pigs, sheep, turkeys, ducks, horses, buffaloes, and goats. We compared this data with intended priorities calculated from: disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), livestock antimicrobial usage (AMU), livestock biomass, and a global correlation exercise between livestock and human proportion of resistant isolates. Results Resistance to fluoroquinolones and macrolides in Staphylococcus aureus were identified as priorities in many countries but, less than 10% of these reported livestock AMR data. Resistance data for Escherichia coli specific to cattle, chickens, and pigs, which we prioritized, were also well collected. AMR data collection on non-typhoidal Salmonella and other livestock species were often not prioritized. Of 232 categories prioritized by at least one country, data were only collected for 48% (n = 112). Conclusions The lack of livestock AMR data globally for broad resistance in Staphylococcus aureus could underplay their zoonotic threat. Countries can bolster livestock AMR data collection, reporting, and intervention setting for Staphylococcus aureus as done for Escherichia coli. This framework can provide guidance on areas to strengthen AMR surveillance and decision-making for humans and livestock, and if done routinely, can adapt to resistance trends and priorities.

Abstract Respiratory syncytial virus is the major cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections in young children, causing extensive mortality and morbidity globally, with limited therapeutic or preventative options. Cathelicidins are innate immune antimicrobial host defence peptides and have antiviral activity against RSV. However, upper respiratory tract cathelicidin expression and the relationship with host and environment factors in early life, are unknown. Infant cohorts were analysed to characterise early life nasal cathelicidin levels, revealing low expression levels in the first week of life, with increased levels at 9 months which are comparable to 2-year-olds and healthy adults. No impact of prematurity on nasal cathelicidin expression was observed, nor were there effects of sex or birth mode, however, nasal cathelicidin expression was lower in the first week-of-life in winter births. Nasal cathelicidin levels were positively associated with specific inflammatory markers and demonstrated to be associated with microbial community composition. Importantly, levels of nasal cathelicidin expression were elevated in infants with mild RSV infection, but, in contrast, were not upregulated in infants hospitalised with severe RSV infection. These data suggest important relationships between nasal cathelicidin, upper airway microbiota, inflammation, and immunity against RSV infection, with interventional potential.

Human group B Streptococcus (GBS) infections attributable to an invasive, hypervirulent sequence type (ST) 283 have been associated with freshwater fish consumption in Asia. The origin, geographic dispersion pathways and host transitions of GBS ST283 remain unresolved. We gather 328 ST283 isolate whole-genome sequences collected from humans and fish between 1998 and 2021, representing eleven countries across four continents. We apply Bayesian phylogeographic analyses to reconstruct the dispersal history of ST283 and combine ST283 phylogenies with genetic markers and host association to investigate host switching and the gain and loss of antimicrobial resistance and virulence factor genes. Initial dispersal within Asia followed ST283 emergence in the early 1980s, with Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong observed as early transmission hubs. Subsequent intercontinental dispersal originating from Vietnam began in the decade commencing 2001, demonstrating ST283 holds potential to expand geographically. Furthermore, we observe bidirectional host switching, with the detection of more frequent human-to-fish than fish-to-human transitions, suggesting that sound wastewater management, hygiene and sanitation may help to interrupt chains of transmission between hosts. We also show that antimicrobial resistance and virulence factor genes were lost more frequently than gained across the evolutionary history of ST283. Our findings highlight the need for enhanced surveillance, clinical awareness, and targeted risk mitigation to limit transmission and reduce the impact of an emerging pathogen associated with a high-growth aquaculture industry.

Abstract Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in food animals is a growing threat to animal health and potentially to human health. In resource-limited settings, allocating resources to address AMR can be guided with maps. Here, we mapped AMR prevalence in 7 antimicrobials in Escherichia coli and nontyphoidal Salmonella species across low- and middle-income countries (LIMCs), using 1088 point-prevalence surveys in combination with a geospatial model. Hotspots of AMR were predicted in China, India, Brazil, Chile, and part of central Asia and southeastern Africa. The highest resistance prevalence was for tetracycline (59% for E. coli and 54% for nontyphoidal Salmonella, average across LMICs) and lowest for cefotaxime (33% and 19%). We also identified the antimicrobial with the highest probability of resistance exceeding critical levels (50%) in the future (1.7–12.4 years) for each 10 × 10 km pixel on the map. In Africa and South America, 78% locations were associated with penicillins or tetracyclines crossing 50% resistance in the future. In contrast, in Asia, 77% locations were associated with penicillins or sulphonamides. Our maps highlight diverging geographic trends of AMR prevalence across antimicrobial classes, and can be used to target AMR surveillance in AMR hotspots for priority antimicrobial classes.

In Europe, systematic national surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in food-producing animals has been conducted for decades; however, geographic distribution within countries remains unknown. To determine distribution within Europe, we combined 33,802 country-level AMR prevalence estimates with 2,849 local AMR prevalence estimates from 209 point prevalence surveys across 31 countries. We produced geospatial models of AMR prevalence in Escherichia coli, nontyphoidal Salmonella, and Campylobacter for cattle, pigs, and poultry. We summarized AMR trends by using the proportion of tested antimicrobial compounds with resistance >50% and generated predictive maps at 10 × 10 km resolution that disaggregated AMR prevalence. For E. coli, predicted prevalence rates were highest in southern Romania and southern/eastern Italy; for Salmonella, southern Hungary and central Poland; and for Campylobacter, throughout Spain. Our findings suggest that AMR distribution is heterogeneous within countries and that surveillance data from below the country level could help with prioritizing resources to reduce AMR.

Abstract Monoacylglycerol lipase (MAGL) regulates endocannabinoid 2-arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG) and eicosanoid signalling. MAGL inhibition provides therapeutic opportunities but clinical potential is limited by central nervous system (CNS)-mediated side effects. Here, we report the discovery of LEI-515, a peripherally restricted, reversible MAGL inhibitor, using high throughput screening and a medicinal chemistry programme. LEI-515 increased 2-AG levels in peripheral organs, but not mouse brain. LEI-515 attenuated liver necrosis, oxidative stress and inflammation in a CCl4-induced acute liver injury model. LEI-515 suppressed chemotherapy-induced neuropathic nociception in mice without inducing cardinal signs of CB1 activation. Antinociceptive efficacy of LEI-515 was blocked by CB2, but not CB1, antagonists. The CB1 antagonist rimonabant precipitated signs of physical dependence in mice treated chronically with a global MAGL inhibitor (JZL184), and an orthosteric cannabinoid agonist (WIN55,212-2), but not with LEI-515. Our data support targeting peripheral MAGL as a promising therapeutic strategy for developing safe and effective anti-inflammatory and analgesic agents.

This short communication reflects upon the challenges and recommendations of multiple COVID-19 modelling and data analytic groups that provided quantitative evidence to support health policy discussions in Switzerland and Germany during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.Capacity strengthening outside infectious disease emergencies will be required to enable an environment for a timely, efficient, and data-driven response to support decisions during any future infectious disease emergency.This will require 1) a critical mass of trained experts who continuously advance state-of-the-art methodological tools, 2) the establishment of structural liaisons amongst scientists and decision-makers, and 3) the foundation and management of data-sharing frameworks.

Silicone gel–filled breast implants are widely used for breast augmentation and reconstruction after mastectomy. However, there are some known complications associated with silicone implants: Leakage and migration of silicone particles from the implant cause a granulomatous reaction. Granulomas may present as masses with features of malignancy on breast MRI. We present a case of a giant breast siliconoma in a woman who had undergone reconstruction with breast prostheses, which were surgically removed because of rupture 8 years ago. Teaching point: Despite increasingly efficient diagnostic tools, siliconoma diagnosis remains challenging.

Abstract BackgroundGender dysphoria is a distress caused by a mismatch between gender identity and the sex assigned at birth. About 0.5% of the population suffer from gender dysphoria, which represents 25 million people worldwide. Gender-affirming mastectomy is the most common procedure for female-to-male patients. ObjectivesThe aim of this single-center retrospective study is to present the outcomes after mastectomy and to evaluate patient satisfaction using the BODY-Q questionnaire. MethodsSeveral data regarding patient characteristics and surgery have been collected. A satisfaction survey has been sent to patients. Two groups, “NAC grafts” and “semicircular,” have been compared for complications and satisfaction. ResultsA total of 103 patients have had a transgender mastectomy performed by 3 surgeons, representing 206 mastectomies. There were 5 wound infections (4.8%), 8 seromas (6.8%), 10 hematomas (6.8%), and 23 partial/total nipple areolar complex (NAC) necrosis (20.4%). The complication rates in this study are similar to others in the literature. Few studies express interest in patient satisfaction after this type of surgery and even fewer use a suitable questionnaire. ConclusionsTransgender mastectomy is a safe and often necessary procedure to improve the quality of life of patients suffering from gender dysphoria. Nevertheless, there is currently no validated tool to assess postoperative satisfaction within this specific population group. Level of Evidence: 3

BackgroundInjuries represent a vast and relatively neglected burden of disease affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While many health systems underperform in treating injured patients, most assessments have not considered the whole system. We integrated findings from 9 methods using a 3 delays approach (delays in seeking, reaching, or receiving care) to prioritise important trauma care health system barriers in Karonga, Northern Malawi, and exemplify a holistic health system assessment approach applicable in comparable settings.Methods and findingsTo provide multiple perspectives on each conceptual delay and include data from community-based and facility-based sources, we used 9 methods to examine the injury care health system. The methods were (1) household survey; (2) verbal autopsy analysis; (3) community focus group discussions (FGDs); (4) community photovoice; (5) facility care-pathway process mapping and elucidation of barriers following injury; (6) facility healthcare worker survey; (7) facility assessment survey; (8) clinical vignettes for care process quality assessment of facility-based healthcare workers; and (9) geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Empirical data collection took place in Karonga, Northern Malawi, between July 2019 and February 2020. We used a convergent parallel study design concurrently conducting all data collection before subsequently integrating results for interpretation. For each delay, a matrix was created to juxtapose method-specific data relevant to each barrier identified as driving delays to injury care. Using a consensus approach, we graded the evidence from each method as to whether an identified barrier was important within the health system. We identified 26 barriers to access timely quality injury care evidenced by at least 3 of the 9 study methods. There were 10 barriers at delay 1, 6 at delay 2, and 10 at delay 3. We found that the barriers "cost," "transport," and "physical resources" had the most methods providing strong evidence they were important health system barriers within delays 1 (seeking care), 2 (reaching care), and 3 (receiving care), respectively. Facility process mapping provided evidence for the greatest number of barriers-25 of 26 within the integrated analysis. There were some barriers with notable divergent findings between the community- and facility-based methods, as well as among different community- and facility-based methods, which are discussed. The main limitation of our study is that the framework for grading evidence strength for important health system barriers across the 9 studies was done by author-derived consensus; other researchers might have created a different framework.ConclusionsBy integrating 9 different methods, including qualitative, quantitative, community-, patient-, and healthcare worker-derived data sources, we gained a rich insight into the functioning of this health system's ability to provide injury care. This approach allowed more holistic appraisal of this health system's issues by establishing convergence of evidence across the diverse methods used that the barriers of cost, transport, and physical resources were the most important health system barriers driving delays to seeking, reaching, and receiving injury care, respectively. This offers direction and confidence, over and above that derived from single methodology studies, for prioritising barriers to address through health service development and policy.

Routine usage of antibiotics for animal health is a key driver of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in food-producing animals. Taxation is a possible approach to incentivise appropriate antibiotic usage in food-producing animals. Taxation can be applied flatly across all antibiotic classes, targeted to single antibiotic classes, or scaled based on resistance in each class, so called “differential” taxation. However, quantifying the potential impact of taxation is challenging, due to the nonlinear and unintuitive response of AMR dynamics to interventions and changes in antibiotic usage caused by alterations in price. We combine epidemiological models with price elasticities of demand for veterinary antibiotics, to compare the potential benefits of taxation schemes with currently implemented bans on antibiotic usage.Taxation strategies had effects comparable to bans on antibiotic usage in food-producing animals to reduce average resistance prevalence and prevent increases in overall infection. Taxation could also maximise the average number of antibiotics with a resistance prevalence of under 25% and potentially generate annual global revenues of ∼1 billion US$ under a 50% taxation to current prices of food-producing animal antibiotics. Differential taxation was also able to maintain a high availability of antibiotics over time compared to single and flat taxation strategies, while also having the lowest rates of intervention failure and highest potential revenue across all taxation strategies. These findings suggest that taxation should be further explored as a tool to combat the ongoing AMR crisis.

Human populations that hunt, butcher, and sell bushmeat (bushmeat activities) are at increased risk for zoonotic pathogen spillover. Despite associations with global epidemics of severe illnesses, such as Ebola and mpox, quantitative assessments of bushmeat activities are lacking. However, such assessments could help prioritize pandemic prevention and preparedness efforts. We used geospatial models that combined published data on bushmeat activities and ecologic and demographic drivers to map the distribution of bushmeat activities in rural regions globally. The resulting map had high predictive capacity for bushmeat activities (true skill statistic = 0.94). The model showed that mammal species richness and deforestation were principal drivers of the geographic distribution of bushmeat activities and that countries in West and Central Africa had the highest proportion of land area associated with bushmeat activities. These findings could help prioritize future surveillance of bushmeat activities and forecast emerging zoonoses at a global scale.

Abstract Thailand is undergoing rapid intensification of livestock production where small subsistence farms and medium sized commercial farms coexist. In medium farms, antimicrobials are prescribed by a veterinarian, whereas in small farms antimicrobial use remains largely unsupervised. The impact of these differences as well as other farming practices on the emergence and composition of antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) remains largely unknown. We analyzed 363 genomes of extended-spectrum ß-lactamase producing (ESBL) and/or AmpC producing Escherichia coli recovered from humans and pigs at small and medium farms from the Khon Kaen province, Thailand. We tested for genome-wide associations to identify links between ARGs, host, and farm size. Pig isolates from small farms were associated with mcr and qnr genes conferring resistance to colistin and fluoroquinolones, respectively. In contrast, pig isolates from medium farms were associated with ARGs conferring resistance to drugs commonly used on medium farms (i.e., streptomycin). ESBL plasmids from small farms co-carried ARGs conferring resistance to critically important antimicrobials more frequently compared to plasmid from medium farms. Frequent ARG combinations included bla CTX-M-55 + qnrS1 (29.8% vs 17.5% in small and medium farms, respectively), bla CTX-M-55 + qnrS1 + mcr-3.19 (5% vs 0%), bla CTX-M-14 + qnrS1 (9.3% vs 6.2%), and bla CTX-M-14 + qnrS1 + mcr-1.1 (3.1% vs 0%). The co-location on plasmids of ARGs conferring resistance to critically important antimicrobials as defined by the World Health Organization is concerning, and actions to curb their spread are urgently needed. Legislation on limiting antimicrobial sales and initiatives to better inform farmers and veterinarians on appropriate antimicrobial usage and farm biosecurity could help reduce antimicrobial use on farms.

BackgroundHospital-associated infections (HAIs) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. Many HAIs are caused by drug-resistant bacterial pathogens, but there are major gaps in our understanding of the number of hospital-associated drug-resistant infections (HARIs) worldwide. As such, we estimated trends in prevalence of HARIs caused by high priority pathogens (Escherichia coli, Acinetobacter spp., Klebsiella spp., Staphylococcus aureus, Enterobacter spp., and Pseudomonas spp.) in 195 countries.Methods and findingsResistance prevalence estimates were extracted from 474-point prevalence surveys (PPS) from 99 countries published between 2010 and 2020 coupled with country-level estimates of hospitalization rates and length of stay. Prevalence estimates were transformed in yearly incidence of HARIs per year by country and income group. We estimate the global number of HARIs per year to be 136 million (95% credible interval (CI) 26 to 246 million) per year, with the highest burden in China (52 million, 95% CI 10 to 95 million), Pakistan (10 million, 95% CI 2 to 18 million), and India (9 million, 95% CI 3 to 15 million). Among income groups, middle-income countries bore the highest burden of HARIs per year (119 million, 95% CI 23 to 215 million). Our analysis was constrained by the limited number of PPS for HARIs, lack of community-associated data on antibiotic-resistant infections, and our population level analysis.ConclusionsIn this study, we observe, in the absence of systematic surveillance systems for HARIs, a baseline overview of their rates. Our yearly estimates highlight the global threat of HARIs and may help define strategies to tackle resistance in hospital settings.

Human group B Streptococcus (GBS) infections attributable to an invasive, hypervirulent sequence type (ST) 283 have been associated with freshwater fish consumption in Asia. The origin, geographic dispersion pathways and host transitions of GBS ST283 remain unresolved. We gather 328 ST283 isolate whole-genome sequences collected from humans and fish between 1998 and 2021, representing eleven countries across four continents. We apply Bayesian phylogeographic analyses to reconstruct the dispersal history of ST283 and combine ST283 phylogenies with genetic markers and host association to investigate host switching and the gain and loss of antimicrobial resistance and virulence factor genes. Initial dispersal within Asia followed ST283 emergence in the early 1980s, with Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong observed as early transmission hubs. Subsequent intercontinental dispersal originating from Vietnam began in the decade commencing 2001, demonstrating ST283 holds potential to expand geographically. Furthermore, we observe bidirectional host switching, with the detection of more frequent human-to-fish than fish-to-human transitions, suggesting that sound wastewater management, hygiene and sanitation may help to interrupt chains of transmission between hosts. We also show that antimicrobial resistance and virulence factor genes were lost more frequently than gained across the evolutionary history of ST283. Our findings highlight the need for enhanced surveillance, clinical awareness, and targeted risk mitigation to limit transmission and reduce the impact of an emerging pathogen associated with a high-growth aquaculture industry.

Use of antimicrobials in farming has enabled the growth of intensive animal production and helped in meeting the global increase in demand for animal protein. However, the widespread use of veterinary antimicrobials drives antimicrobial resistance, with important consequences for animal health, and potentially human health. Global monitoring of antimicrobial use is essential: first, to track progress in reducing the reliance of farming on antimicrobials. Second, to identify countries where antimicrobial-stewardship efforts should be targeted to curb antimicrobial resistance. Data on usage of antimicrobials in food animals were collected from 42 countries. Multivariate regression models were used in combination with projections of animal counts for cattle, sheep, chicken, and pigs from the Food and Agriculture Organization to estimate global antimicrobial usage of veterinary antimicrobials in 2020 and 2030. Maps of animal densities were used to identify geographic hotspots of antimicrobial use. In each country, estimates of antimicrobial use (tonnes) were calibrated to match continental-level reports of antimicrobial use intensity (milligrams per kilogram of animal) from the World Organization for Animal Health, as well as country-level reports of antimicrobial use from countries that made this information publicly available. Globally, antimicrobial usage was estimated at 99,502 tonnes (95% CI 68,535-198,052) in 2020 and is projected, based on current trends, to increase by 8.0% to 107,472 tonnes (95% CI: 75,927-202,661) by 2030. Hotspots of antimicrobial use were overwhelmingly in Asia (67%), while

Antimicrobial use contributes to the global rise of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). In 2014, the poultry industry in Canada initiated its Antimicrobial Use Reduction Strategy to mitigate AMR in the poultry sector. We monitored trends in antimicrobial use and AMR of foodborne bacteria (Salmonella, Escherichia coli, and Campylobacter) in broiler chickens during 2013 and 2019. We quantified the effect of antimicrobial use and management factors on AMR by using LASSO regression and generalized mixed-effect models. AMR in broiler chickens declined by 6%–38% after the decrease in prophylactic antimicrobial use. However, the withdrawal of individual compounds, such as cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones, prompted an increase in use of and resistance levels for other drug classes, such as aminoglycosides. Canada’s experience with antimicrobial use reduction illustrates the potential for progressive transitions from conventional antimicrobial-dependent broiler production to more sustainable production with respect to antimicrobial use.

Trends in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in aquatic food animals are seldom documented, particularly in Asia. Here, Schar et al. review 749 point prevalence surveys, describing AMR trends in Asian aquaculture and fisheries over two decades, and identifying resistance hotspots as well as regions that would benefit most from future surveillance efforts.

Abstract Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing threat to the health of humans and animals that requires global actions. In high-income countries, surveillance systems helped inform policies to curb AMR in animals. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), demand for meat is rising, and developing policies against AMR is urgent. However, surveillance of AMR is at best nascent, and the current evidence base to inform policymakers is geographically heterogeneous. We present resistancebank.org, an online platform that centralizes information on AMR in animals from 1,285 surveys from LMICs. Surveys were conducted between 2000 and 2019 and include 22,403 resistance rates for pathogens isolated from chickens, cattle, sheep, and pigs. The platform is built as a shiny application that provides access to individual surveys, country-level reports, and maps of AMR at 10 × 10 kilometers resolution. The platform is accessed via any internet browser and enables users to upload surveys to strengthen a global database. resistancebank.org aims to be a focal point for sharing AMR data in LMICs and to help international funders prioritize their actions.

Popis umělecké aktivity, jejímž cílem je vymodelovat z hlíny „chybějící článek“ v procesu evoluce. Postup vyvinul Jan van Boeckel (inspirován původní aktivitou z dílny Antonyho Gormleye) www.janvanboeckel.wordpress.com.

Abstract Globally aquaculture contributes 8% of animal protein intake to the human diet, and per capita consumption is increasing faster than meat and dairy consumption. Reports have documented antimicrobial use in the rapidly expanding aquaculture industry, which may contribute to the rise of antimicrobial resistance, carrying potential consequences for animal-, human-, and ecosystem-health. However, quantitative antimicrobial use across a highly diversified aquaculture industry is not well characterized. Here, we estimate global trends in antimicrobial use in aquaculture in 2017 and 2030 to help target future surveillance efforts and antimicrobial stewardship policies. We estimate antimicrobial use intensity (mg kg−1) for six species groups though a systematic review of point prevalence surveys, which identified 146 species-specific antimicrobial use rates. We project antimicrobial use in each country by combining mean antimicrobial use coefficients per species group with OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook and FAO FishStat production volumes. We estimate global antimicrobial consumption in 2017 at 10,259 tons (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3163–44,727 tons), increasing 33% to 13,600 tons in 2030 (UI 4193–59,295). The Asia–Pacific region represents the largest share (93.8%) of global consumption, with China alone contributing 57.9% of global consumption in 2017. Antimicrobial consumption intensity per species group was: catfish, 157 mg kg−1 (UI 9–2751); trout, 103 mg kg−1 (UI 5–1951); tilapia, 59 mg kg−1 (UI 21–169); shrimp, 46 mg kg−1 (UI 10–224); salmon, 27 mg kg−1 (UI 17–41) and a pooled species group, 208 mg kg−1, (UI 70–622). All antimicrobial classes identified in the review are classified as medically important. We estimate aggregate global human, terrestrial and aquatic food animal antimicrobial use in 2030 at 236,757 tons (95% UI 145,525–421,426), of which aquaculture constitutes 5.7% but carries the highest use intensity per kilogram of biomass (164.8 mg kg−1). This analysis calls for a substantial scale-up of surveillance capacities to monitor global trends in antimicrobial use. Current evidence, while subject to considerable uncertainties, suggests that for some species groups antimicrobial use intensity surpasses consumption levels in terrestrial animals and humans. Acknowledging the fast-growing nature of aquaculture as an important source of animal nutrition globally, our findings highlight the urgent need for enhanced antimicrobial stewardship in a high-growth industry with broad links to water and ecosystem health.

Anticipating intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy is critical in supporting decision makers to impose (or relax) measures that mitigate COVID-19 transmission. Mechanistic approaches such as Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models have traditionally been used to achieve this objective. However, formulating such models is challenged by the necessity to formulate equations for plausible causal mechanisms between the intensity of COVID-19 transmission and external epidemic drivers such as temperature, and the stringency of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here, we combined a neural network model (NN) with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model (SEIR) in a hybrid model and attempted to increase the prediction accuracy of existing models used to forecast ICU occupancy. Between 1st of October, 2020 - 1st of July, 2021, the hybrid model improved performances of the SEIR model at different geographical levels. At a national level, the hybrid model improved, prediction accuracy (i.e., mean absolute error) by 74%. At the cantonal and hospital levels, the reduction on the forecast’s mean absolute error were 46% and 50%, respectively. Our findings illustrate those predictions from hybrid model can be used to anticipate occupancy in ICU, and support the decision-making for lifesaving actions such as the transfer of patients and dispatching of medical personnel and ventilators.

ABSTRACT The number of bacterial genomes deposited each year in public databases is growing exponentially. However, efforts to use these genomes to track trends in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) have been limited thus far. We used 22,102 genomes from public databases to track AMR trends in nontyphoidal Salmonella in food animals in the United States. In 2018, genomes deposited in public databases carried genes conferring resistance, on average, to 2.08 antimicrobial classes in poultry, 1.74 in bovines, and 1.28 in swine. This represents a decline in AMR of over 70% compared to the levels in 2000 in bovines and swine, and an increase of 13% for poultry. Trends in resistance inferred from genomic data showed good agreement with U.S. phenotypic surveillance data (weighted mean absolute difference ± standard deviation, 5.86% ± 8.11%). In 2018, resistance to 3rd-generation cephalosporins in bovines, swine, and poultry decreased to 9.97% on average, whereas in quinolones and 4th-generation cephalosporins, resistance increased to 12.53% and 3.87%, respectively. This was concomitant with a decrease of blaCMY-2 but an increase in blaCTX-M-65 and gyrA D87Y (encoding a change of D to Y at position 87). Core genome single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) phylogenies show that resistance to these antimicrobial classes was predominantly associated with Salmonella enterica serovar Infantis and, to a lesser extent, S. enterica serovar Typhimurium and its monophasic variant I 4,[5],12:i:−, whereas quinolone resistance was also associated with S. enterica serovar Dublin. Between 2000 and 2018, trends in serovar prevalence showed a composition shift where S. Typhimurium decreased while S. Infantis increased. Our findings illustrate the growing potential of using genomes in public databases to track AMR in regions where sequencing capacities are currently expanding. IMPORTANCE Next-generation sequencing has led to an exponential increase in the number of genomes deposited in public repositories. This growing volume of information presents opportunities to track the prevalence of genes conferring antimicrobial resistance (AMR), a growing threat to the health of humans and animals. Using 22,102 public genomes, we estimated that the prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) in the United States decreased in nontyphoidal Salmonella isolates recovered from bovines and swine between 2000 and 2018, whereas it increased in poultry. These trends are consistent with those detected by national surveillance systems that monitor resistance using phenotypic testing. However, using genomes, we identified that genes conferring resistance to critically important antimicrobials were associated with specific MDR serovars that could be the focus for future interventions. Our analysis illustrates the growing potential of public repositories to monitor AMR trends and shows that similar efforts could soon be carried out in other regions where genomic surveillance is increasing.

AIMS OF THE STUDY During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the launch of a large-scale vaccination campaign and virus mutations have hinted at possible changes in transmissibility and the virulence affecting disease progression up to critical illness, and carry potential for future vaccination failure. To monitor disease development over time with respect to critically ill COVID-19 patients, we report near real-time prospective observational data from the RISC-19-ICU registry that indicate changed characteristics of critically ill patients admitted to Swiss intensive care units (ICUs) at the onset of a third pandemic wave. METHODS 1829 of 3344 critically ill COVID-19 patients enrolled in the international RISC-19-ICU registry as of 31 May 2021 were treated in Switzerland and were included in the present study. Of these, 1690 patients were admitted to the ICU before 1 February 2021 and were compared with 139 patients admitted during the emerging third pandemic wave RESULTS Third wave patients were a mean of 5.2 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.2–7.1) younger (median 66.0 years, interquartile range [IQR] 57.0–73.0 vs 62.0 years, IQR 54.5–68.0; p

In Thailand, pig production has increased considerably in the last decades to meet a growing demand for pork. Antimicrobials are used routinely in intensive pig production to treat infections and increase productivity. However, the use of antimicrobials also contributes to the rise of antimicrobial resistance with potential consequences for animal and human health. Here, we quantify the association between antimicrobial use and resistance rates in extensive and intensive farms with a focus on geographic proximity between farm and drugstores. Of the 164 enrolled farms, 79% reported using antimicrobials for disease prevention, treatment, or as a feed additive. Antimicrobial-resistant E. coli were present in 63% of farms. These drugs included critically important antimicrobials, such as quinolones and penicillins. Medium-scale farms with intensive animal production practices showed higher resistance rates than small-scale farms with extensive practices. Farms with drug-resistant Escherichia coli were located closer to drugstores and a had a higher proportion of disease than farms without drug-resistant E. coli. We found no association between the presence of resistance in humans and antimicrobial use in pigs. Our findings call for actions to improve herd health to reduce the need for antimicrobials and systematic training of veterinarians and drugstore owners on judicious use of antimicrobials in animals to mitigate resistance.

In Switzerland, the COVID-19 epidemic is progressively slowing down owing to “social distancing” measures introduced by the Federal Council on 16 March 2020. However, the gradual ease of these measures may initiate a second epidemic wave, the length and intensity of which are difficult to anticipate. In this context, hospitals must prepare for a potential increase in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Here, we introduce icumonitoring.ch, a platform providing hospital-level projections for ICU occupancy. We combined current data on the number of beds and ventilators with canton-level projections of COVID-19 cases from two S-E-I-R models. We disaggregated epidemic projection in each hospital in Switzerland for the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, hospitalisations in ICU, and ventilators in use. The platform is updated every 3-4 days and can incorporate projections from other modelling teams to inform decision makers with a range of epidemic scenarios for future hospital occupancy.

Understanding the patterns and drivers of antibiotic use in livestock is crucial for tailoring efficient incentives for responsible use of antibiotics. Here we compared routines for antibiotic use between pig farms of two different levels of intensification in Khon Kaen province in Thailand. Among the 113 family-owned small-scale farms (up to 50 sows) interviewed did 76% get advice from the pharmacy about how to use the antibiotics and 84% used it primarily for treating disease. Among the 51 medium-scale-farms (100-500 sows) belonging to two companies did 100% get advice about antibiotic use from the company's veterinarian (P