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In this paper we analyze features of the recent business cycle with a New Keynesian small open economy DSGE model with labour market frictions and wage rigidity. The model complements the existing analytical tools of the Bank of Finland by enabling detailed analysis of labour markets in a DSGE framework. We illustrate the properties of the model by presenting how recent shocks explain in flation and economic recovery in the euro area and Finland, with a specifi c emphasis on factors that are critical to explaining current labour market tightness.

Tässä artikkelissa tarkastellaan osakassopimusriitoja siitä näkökulmasta, millaisia tuomioita niissä on mahdollista antaa. Artikkeli aloitetaan kuvaamalla osakassopimuksen oikeusvaikutuksia ja erilaisia tuomiotyyppejä, mikä on tarpeen lukijan johdattelemiseksi kirjoituksen pääteemaan. Tuomioiden osalta artikkelissa käsitellään ensiksi suoritustuomioita ja erityisesti sitä, onko suoritustuomion antaminen osakassopimuksen äänestysvelvoitetta koskevassa riidassa mahdollista. Lisäksi samassa yhteydessä arvioidaan turvaamistointen käyttöalaa. Lopuksi pohditaan lyhyesti vahvistustuomioiden merkitystä osakassopimusriidoissa. Artikkelin keskeisenä johtopäätelmänä on se, että osakassopimusriidoissa voidaan antaa sekä suoritus- että vahvistustuomioita, joskin sillä varaumalla, ettei sopimusta tulisi saattaa tuomioistuinteitse yhtiöoikeudellisen sitovuusvaikutuksen piiriin. Sanottu koskee erityisesti riitoja, joissa erimielisyyden kohteena on yhtiöoikeudellisesti hankala sopimusehto, kuten äänestysvelvoite.

The output gap is a commonly used tool to assess the state of the business cycle, and as such, a key input for policy makers. In this article, we employ principal components analysis (PCA) to derive an estimate of the output gap in Finland that summarizes the information of widely used cyclical indicators. This methodology produces an output gap that is similar to the ones obtained from the main methods used at the Bank of Finland and the European Commission, but requiring considerably less modelling effort. The method is also flexible and can readily be adopted to internalize additional information that captures special circumstances, such as the current pandemic. In this spirit, we extend our information set to include a service turnover indicator, and find that it clearly improves the method's ability to capture the exceptional downturn in 2020.

The purpose of this article is to give a comprehensive overview of the law regarding Finnish groups of companies. The research has been conducted so that the initial focus is on company law and cooperative law-related issues, as well as accounting. After the main analysis, there is a brief overview of other group-specific rules. Here the focus is on tax law, insolvency law and labor law matters. Finally, the research findings are summarized in a brief conclusions section.

The modern corporation is often praised as the ultimate form of association. The purpose of this Chapter is to challenge this claim by demonstrating the possibilities of the cooperative business model. In other words the aim is to examine how cooperatives differ from corporations, especially in terms of sustainability, to what extent cooperatives, in theory and practice, facilitate sustainability, and how cooperative law should be developed to ensure that person-oriented cooperative societies do not transform into capital-centered cooperative corporations. The findings of this Chapter show that cooperatives are, in several ways, better alternatives for sustainable business operations than corporations. Concern for community is an organic part of the cooperative business model, whereas altruistic measures in the corporate context are often artificial and motivated by investor interests. However, the question yet remains whether cooperatives facilitate sustainability enough or whether they put too much emphasis on their members’ interests.

Membership is one of the core structural characteristics of the cooperative form. It distinguishes cooperatives from other business forms, especially companies. Cooperative membership is often regulated in national laws; however, the question of how membership should be translated into legal rules, has been largely unexplored. This is quite unfortunate, since to fully understand the complex relation between the cooperative and its members—and the mutual purpose of the cooperative—one must study the legal nature of cooperative membership. The purpose of this article is to investigate the legal dimensions of cooperative membership and how cooperatives differ from mainstream companies. The analysis is structured so that first the distinctive normative features of cooperative membership are assessed on a general level. Next, the focus shifts to the members’ rights and obligations with the aim to provide a systematic overview regarding their justification and structure. Finally, the question of how cooperative membership should be regulated de lege ferenda, is briefly discussed. The findings of this article suggest that when translating membership into legal rules, special attention should be paid to the cooperative identity. It is particularly important to distinguish membership from shareholdership and to understand the central role of the members as user-owners of the enterprise. The purpose of the cooperative is based on member participation and without such interaction, cooperatives would ultimately lose their true identity. This article also points out several membership-related issues, which require further attention, and such studies are necessary to determine how cooperative law should be developed in the future.

The convergence of law is a widely discussed and researched phenomenon. In company law the convergence problemacy has often been linked to the so-called Americanization of law which is understood as a phenomenon where foreign law is influenced by American (state or federal) law. Quite often this topic has been approached from a ‘macro’ perspective which leaves some of the research findings somewhat abstract and general. Therefore, in this article, the Americanization of European company law has been analysed utilizing a ‘micro’ perspective. The purpose is to illustrate how and why European company law has been influenced by American corporate law by using the Finnish Limited Liability Companies Act as an example.

The modern corporation is often praised as the ultimate form of association. The purpose of this Chapter is to challenge this claim by demonstrating the possibilities of the cooperative business model. In other words the aim is to examine how cooperatives differ from corporations, especially in terms of sustainability, to what extent cooperatives, in theory and practice, facilitate sustainability, and how cooperative law should be developed to ensure that person-oriented cooperative societies do not transform into capital-centered cooperative corporations. The findings of this Chapter show that cooperatives are, in several ways, better alternatives for sustainable business operations than corporations. Concern for community is an organic part of the cooperative business model, whereas altruistic measures in the corporate context are often artificial and motivated by investor interests. However, the question yet remains whether cooperatives facilitate sustainability enough or whether they put too much emphasis on their members’ interests.

Artikkeli on hyväksytty julkaistavaksi ja se ilmestyy EBLR:n numerossa 1/2019 This article examines the so-called companization of cooperative law. Companization refers to the phenomenon of national cooperative laws adopting elements of efficiency- oriented company legislation; i.e., cooperative societies seem to be slowly transforming into cooperative companies. Companization is a widely recognized issue, but there is little research on the topic. This is unfortunate, since studying companization helps us understand the relationship between cooperative law and company law, and, furthermore, it serves as a gateway to the investigation of the essential nature of cooperatives and why we need them. This article examines the companization of cooperative law using the Finnish Cooperatives Act (FCA) as a framework for analysis. The FCA is a good instrument for elaborating what companization means in practice, since cooperatives play a larger role in the Finnish economy than anywhere else in the world and since companization has been the conscious objective of Finnish legislators. This research was conducted by reflecting on the FCA in relation to the international cooperative law doctrine, using the ICA’s cooperative principles as a benchmark. The findings reveal many signs of companization, and this does not only concern Finland: Companization is a global trend which requires further attention.

Viimeisten vuosikymmenien aikana kansainvälisessä ekonometrisessa tutkimuskirjallisuudessa on esitetty useita makrotaloudellista tilaa kuvaavien muuttujien informaatiota yhdistäviä lyhyen aikavälin mallinnus- ja ennustemenetelmiä. Näitä ns. nowcasting-menetelmiä on myös onnistuneesti hyödynnetty ja sovellettu Suomen talouden seurantaan. Tässä artikkelissa esittelemme katsauksen monella taholla tehtyyn kehitystyöhön ja näiden hankkeiden yhteydessä saatuihin tuloksiin Suomen aineiston tapauksessa. Suomen taloutta koskevien suhdanneindeksien hyödyntämisen myötä suhdanteiden käännepisteiden määrittäminen on tarkempaa ja käännepisteiden tuottamia taantumajaksoja voidaan vastaavasti ennustaa binäärivastemalleja käyttäen. Suomen Pankin nowcasting-malli mahdollistaa puolestaan uusien tilastojulkistusten uutisarvon analyysin. Tilastokeskuksessa ja Etlassa on vastaavasti hyödynnetty moderneja koneoppimisen menetelmiä, jotta puutteellisesta mikroaineistosta kyetään tuottamaan bruttokansantuotteen pikaestimaatteja aiempaa lyhyemmällä viiveellä. ETLAnowprojektissa hyödynnetään puolestaan mm. uusia Google-hakutilastoja työttömyyden ennustamisessa. peerReviewed

We study the directional predictability of monthly excess stock market returns in the U.S. and ten other markets using univariate and bivariate binary response models. We introduce a new bivariate (two-equation) probit model that allows us to examine the benefits of predicting the signs of returns jointly, focusing on the predictive power originating from the U.S. to foreign markets. Our in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting results indicate superior predictive performance of the new model over competing univariate binary response models, and conventional predictive regressions, by statistical measures and market timing performance. This highlights the importance of predictive information from the U.S. to the other markets providing also practical improvement in investors' market timing decisions.

We study the role of credit in forecasting US recession periods with probit models. We employ both classical recession predictors and common factors based on a large panel of financial and macroeconomic variables as control variables. Our findings suggest that a number of credit variables are useful predictors of US recessions over and above the control variables both in and out of sample. Especially the excess bond premium, capturing the cyclical changes in the relationship between default risk and credit spreads, is found to be a powerful predictor. Overall, models that combine credit variables, common factors, and classic recession predictors, are found to have the best forecasting performance.

We study the role of real oil prices on the directional predictability of excess stock market returns in the U.S. and 10 other countries using probit models. Previous studies have shown that oil price shocks have adverse effects on stock returns. We extend this literature by focusing on the sign component of excess returns. Our findings indicate that real oil prices are useful predictors of the direction of stock returns in a number of markets over and above commonly used predictors, but results vary substantially between countries. Interestingly, we find only limited evidence of asymmetric effects of oil price shocks.

Companies organize into groups for various reasons. From a legal point of view a group of companies is an interesting subject of research, since it is a topic that affects various different areas of law. Also, groups of companies are often transnational so that the parent company and the subsidiaries operate in different jurisdictions. Legal provisions concerning groups are, however, quite national and therefore it is important to know, how groups of companies are regulated in different countries. In light of this background, the purpose of this article is to give a comprehensive overview of the law regarding Finnish groups of companies. The research has been conducted so that the initial focus is on company law and cooperative law-related issues, as well as accounting. After the main analysis, there is a brief overview of other group-specific rules. Here the focus is on tax law, insolvency law and labor law matters. Finally, the research findings are summarized in a brief conclusions section. The article is part of the International Academy of Comparative Law’s “Groups of Companies” research project and the research findings will be presented at the Academy’s XXth International Congress 2018, Fukuoka, Japan.

This article examines the so-called companization of cooperative law. Companization refers to the phenomenon of national cooperative laws adopting elements of efficiency- oriented company legislation; i.e., cooperative societies seem to be slowly transforming into cooperative companies. Companization is a widely recognized issue, but there is little research on the topic. This is unfortunate, since studying companization helps us understand the relationship between cooperative law and company law, and, furthermore, it serves as a gateway to the investigation of the essential nature of cooperatives and why we need them. This article examines the companization of cooperative law using the Finnish Cooperatives Act (FCA) as a framework for analysis. The FCA is a good instrument for elaborating what companization means in practice, since cooperatives play a larger role in the Finnish economy than anywhere else in the world and since companization has been the conscious objective of Finnish legislators. This research was conducted by reflecting on the FCA in relation to the international cooperative law doctrine, using the ICA’s cooperative principles as a benchmark. The findings reveal many signs of companization, and this does not only concern Finland: Companization is a global trend which requires further attention.

This thesis is a collection of four self-contained essays that discuss time series applications of binary response models. Although popular in microeconometric applications using cross-sectional data, this class of models is not among the most commonly used ones in time series econometrics. Nevertheless, these models hold interesting possibilities to various forecasting issues in empirical macroeconomics and finance. The most common time series application of binary response models, or more specifically probit models, has been recession forecasting. In this context, these models have been applied ever since Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) used them to study U.S. recession periods. The application to recession forecasting is a natural one, due to the binary nature of the dependent variable, as business cycle turning points determine the economy into periods of expansion and recession. An obvious advantage of binary response models over models designed for continuous, real-valued dependent variables is that they provide probability forecasts to decision makers. Due to this convenient property, there are a number of potential applications for these models, where the decision makers are after a yes or no decision. One of these is predicting movements in the direction of asset prices, and basing investment decisions on these predictions. The directional predictability of excess stock market returns has previously been studied by, for example, Leung et al. (2000), Nyberg (2011), and Chevapatrakul (2013) and the findings have been promising when compared with those obtained using traditional methods, such as the conventional predictive regressions. This thesis extends the previous research on both predicting the direction of asset returns (Chapters 2-4) and state of the business cycle (Chapter 5). The most important connection between the essays in this thesis is the use of a common methodology, i.e. the probit model. Along with the new empirical results I also contribute to the previous literature by developing and employing new methods. In Chapter 3, written jointly with Henri Nyberg, we develop a new bivariate probit model allowing for contemporaneous effects. In Chapters 3, 4, and 5, I consider another way to assess the accuracy of probability forecasts, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve that was originally developed for radar signal detection. Tämä väitöskirja koostuu neljästä itsenäisestä artikkelista, jotka käsittelevät binäärivastemallien aikasarjasovelluksia. Binäärivastemalleja on jo pitkään käytetty mikroekonometrisissä, poikittaisaineistoja hyödyntävissä sovelluksissa, mutta aikasarjasovelluksissa niitä on käytetty harvemmin. Tästä huolimatta näillä malleilla on mielenkiintoisia mahdollisuuksia empiirisen makrotaloustieteen sekä rahoitusekonometristen sovellusten parissa. Yleisin probit-mallien aikasarjasovellus on ollut taantumaperiodien ennustaminen. Tässä yhteydessä näitä malleja on hyödynnetty laajemmin sen jälkeen, kun Estrella ja Hardouvelis (1991) havaitsivat niiden hyödyllisyyden Yhdysvaltojen taantumajaksoja ennustettaessa. Binäärivastemallit ovat käytännöllisiä sovelluksissa, joissa etsitään vastausta kyllä-ei tyyppisiin kysymyksiin. Sijoittajat kohtaavat tämänlaisia tilanteita tehdessään sijoituspäätöksiä, jotka tekevät osakemarkkinoiden suunnan ennustamisesta luontevan probit-mallien käyttökohteen. Aiheesta on tehty aikaisempaa tutkimusta (esim. Nyberg, 2011 ja Chevapatrakul, 2013) ja näistä saatujen tulosten perusteella binäärivastemallit ovatkin suoriutuneet perinteisiä regressiomalleja paremmin osakemarkkinoiden tuottojen suuntaa ennustettaessa, sekä tilastollisilla että taloudellisilla kriteereillä mitattuna. Tämä väitöskirja täydentää sekä osakemarkkinoiden tuottojen suuntaan (luvut 2-4) että suhdanne-vaihteluihin (luku 5) keskittyvää tutkimusta. Tärkein yhteinen tekijä kirjan artikkeleiden välillä on yhteinen metodologia, eli probit-malli. Uusien tulosten lisäksi väitöskirjan kontribuutiona voidaan pitää mallien sekä niiden arviontimenetelmien käyttöä ja kehitystä. Toisessa luvussa tutkitaan osakemarkkinoiden suuntaa Yhdysvalloissa dynaamisilla probit-malleilla, käyttäen selittäjinä toimialaportfolioiden viivästettyjä tuottoja. Kolmannessa luvussa, joka on kirjoitettu yhdessä Henri Nybergin kanssa, tutkimme Yhdysvaltojen ja kahdentoista muun osakemarkkinan välistä yhteyttä. Kehitämme uuden kaksiulotteisen probit-mallin, joka mahdollistaa samanaikaisen vaikutuksen tutkimisen Yhdysvalloista muille markkinoille. Neljännessä luvussa tutkin öljyn hinnan muutosten vaikutuksia osakemarkkinoiden suuntaan kolmessatoista maassa. Viidennessä luvussa tutkitaan luottomuuttujien selitysvoimaa Yhdysvaltojen taantumajaksojen ennakoinnissa käyttämällä faktoriaugmentoituja probit-malleja.