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During the eruption at Cumbre Vieja ridge (La Palma, Canary Islands, 2021) a radon (222Rn) detector (CORENTIUM Pro alpha particles counter) was emplaced inside the Las Palomas lava tube (San Juan eruption, 1949). In addition, a CO2 meter logger was emplaced to determine relationships between the 2021 eruption and radon plus CO2 inner fluxes. There is a geostructural relationship between the 1949 and 2021 eruptions, probably connected by a previous fault, shown the volcanic vents¿ alignment trending NW-SE. In October 2021, the radon and CO2 loggers were moved to the upper part of the lava tube, in the San Juan volcanic vent (Llano del Banco hollow dyke). Once the eruption ended (in early 2022) both loggers were placed in one newly formed lava tube, and data will be collected in February 2023. Preliminary results show daily average radon values ranging between 2 - 9 Bq/m3, although sporadic peaks of about 270 and 650 Bq/m3 were recorded related to volcano-tectonic earthquakes and volcanic intensity. In general, basaltic eruptions of alkaline affinity show low radon values due to the low concentration in the magma body of uranium and related chemical elements (Th, Ra, etc.). Geochemical analysis of emitted lavas shows a U concentration of about 1 to 5 ppm (g/g) and Th 9.5 ppm. Summer values of Rn increased up to 3 KBq/m3, related to the climate conditions instead of volcanic activity.

Aprendizaje automático; Mielofibrosis Aprenentatge automàtic; Mielofibrosi Machine learning; Myelofibrosis Myelofibrosis (MF) is a myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN) with heterogeneous clinical course. Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation remains the only curative therapy, but its morbidity and mortality require careful candidate selection. Therefore, accurate disease risk prognostication is critical for treatment decision-making. We obtained registry data from patients diagnosed with MF in 60 Spanish institutions (N = 1386). These were randomly divided into a training set (80%) and a test set (20%). A machine learning (ML) technique (random forest) was used to model overall survival (OS) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) in the training set, and the results were validated in the test set. We derived the AIPSS-MF (Artificial Intelligence Prognostic Scoring System for Myelofibrosis) model, which was based on 8 clinical variables at diagnosis and achieved high accuracy in predicting OS (training set c-index, 0.750; test set c-index, 0.744) and LFS (training set c-index, 0.697; test set c-index, 0.703). No improvement was obtained with the inclusion of MPN driver mutations in the model. We were unable to adequately assess the potential benefit of including adverse cytogenetics or high-risk mutations due to the lack of these data in many patients. AIPSS-MF was superior to the IPSS regardless of MF subtype and age range and outperformed the MYSEC-PM in patients with secondary MF. In conclusion, we have developed a prediction model based exclusively on clinical variables that provides individualized prognostic estimates in patients with primary and secondary MF. The use of AIPSS-MF in combination with predictive models that incorporate genetic information may improve disease risk stratification.

[EN] The analysis of extreme geological events and the proposal of mitigation measures to prevent the concomitant hazard and risk effects, especially on the natural and cultural heritage, are addressed from the IGME-CSIC research group on “Geological extreme events and Heritage”, by applying pioneer and innovative methodological approaches, including: geology applied to emergency situations; earthquake geology and archaeo-seismology; geological hazard assessment in volcanic islands; cataloguing and surveying mass movements; flood and paleoflood hydrology and geomorphology; characterization and observation of geological events through UAS; education and training on geological risk; and citizen science. The main results achieved by the group components, along the last five years (2017-2021), amount to 400 high quality publications and the involvement in more than one hundred scientific projects (leading twenty of them); additionally to many contributions in congresses, meetings, conferences, research stays and social dissemination. Among the implementation fields of this research may be highlighted the territorial planning, emergency operations, and heritage management. It is the reason why many public administrations, private institutions, and social and commercial actors, are counted among the end users and the partners of this research group.

The project “Assuring integrity of CO2 storage sites through ground surface monitoring” (SENSE) aims to investigate and develop cost-efficient monitoring tools for the time periods comprised during and after CO2 injection at long term, comprising ground motion detection along with geomechanical modelling and inversion.

28 p., [EN] In this work, we propose a kinematic model based on the strain 3D spatial distribution from focal mechanism solutions of instrumental earthquakes located along the Middle American Trench, in the convergence zone of Rivera and Cocos plates with North-American and Caribbean tectonic plates. We have used more than 1300 focal mechanisms of earthquakes (M ≥ 5.5), from the Global Centroid-Moment-Tensor (CMT) online global program to perform a cluster analysis of the spatial distribution of the tectonic strain tensor (ey, ex, ez) and its shape (k’). Accordingly, we have applied the Right Dihedral Method to a population of geographically clustered focal mechanisms, as well as the Slip Method, based on the slip data on the theoretical fault plane, for determining the extensional, compressive, and strike-slip zones, in correspondence with the principal tectonic features. Furthermore, we have realized 14 depth profiles across the Middle American Trench (MAT) of the shape of the strain tensor and ternary Kaverina diagrams for constraining the tectonic deformation and developing a 3D model of the kinematics in the region. This analysis depicts a Zonation in relation with the changing subduction angle of the slab and an increase of the convergence rate towards the SE, resulting from the mechanical coupling of the subduction, and showing less thrust earthquakes at the Rivera-North American convergence zone than at the Cocos-North American one. The proposed 3D geometry is in good agreement with the spatial distribution of large earthquakes, the slab dip angle, the presence of mantle currents at a 100 km depth and the occurrence of normal-type earthquakes. This model could also account for the presence of anomalous earthquakes such as slow and silent earthquakes in the Guerrero Gap., [ES] Este trabajo propone un modelo cinemático 3D de la confluencia de las placas tectónicas Norteamericana y Pacífica con las placas de Rivera y Cocos, centrado en la zona de convergencia de la Fosa Mesoamericana en el área de México. A partir del análisis de más de 1300 mecanismos focales de terremotos (M ≥ 5.5) obtenidos de la base de datos en abierto del programa Global Centroid-Moment-Tensor (CMT), se han aplicado diversas técnicas de geología estructural para obtener la distribución espacial de los tensores de deformación (ey, ex, ez) y del factor de forma (k’) de dichos tensores. Estas técnicas consisten en el estudio de los Diedros Rectos de los mecanismos focales y de la aplicación del Modelo de Deslizamiento, basados en la cinemática del deslizamiento sobre el plano de falla teórico asociado a cada sismo. Este análisis permite Realizar un estudio tridimensional de la deformación mediante el agrupamiento espacial 3D de los diferentes tensores (análisis cluster), agrupando zonas homogéneas en estilos de deformación, junto con los diagramas triangulares de clasificación de mecanismos focales (Kaverina) en relación con la geometría de la subducción y de la presencia de flujos mantélicos. También se han calculado perfiles profundos de la deformación y del factor de forma (k’) en relación a la geometría de la subducción y las principales estructuras tectónicas. Los resultados muestran una zonación 3D influenciada por el ángulo de subducción y el aumento de la velocidad de convergencia hacia el SE, en relación al acoplamiento mecánico de la subducción, apareciendo menos terremotos inversos en la convergencia de la Placa de Rivera con la Placa Norteamericana, frente a la Placa de Cocos con la Placa Norteamericana. La geometría 3D propuesta es congruente con la distribución espacial de grandes terremotos, el ángulo de subducción, la presencia de corrientes mantélicas a 100 km de profundidad y la presencia de terremotos en fallamiento normal. Este modelo también podría explicar la presencia de terremotos anómalos como terremotos lentos y silenciosos en el Gap de Guerrero., Este trabajo ha sido financiado parcialmente por los proyectos del Plan Nacional de I+D+i del Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España con referencias 3GEO CGL2017‐83931‐C3‐2‐P y MINECO-FEDER CGL2015-67169-P (QTECSPAIN).