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We investigate the Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly$\alpha$) and Lyman continuum (LyC) properties of the Sunburst Arc, a $z=2.37$ gravitationally lensed galaxy with a multiply-imaged, compact region leaking LyC and a triple-peaked Ly$\alpha$ profile indicating direct Ly$\alpha$ escape. Non-LyC-leaking regions show a redshifted Ly$\alpha$ peak, a redshifted and central Ly$\alpha$ peak, or a triple-peaked Ly$\alpha$ profile. We measure the properties of the Ly$\alpha$ profile from different regions of the galaxy using $R\sim5000$ Magellan/MagE spectra. We compare the Ly$\alpha$ spectral properties to LyC and narrowband Ly$\alpha$ maps from Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging to explore the subgalactic Ly$\alpha-$LyC connection. We find strong correlations (Pearson correlation coefficient $r>0.6$) between the LyC escape fraction ($f_{\rm esc}^{\rm LyC}$) and Ly$\alpha$ (1) peak separation $v_{\rm{sep}}$, (2) ratio of the minimum flux density between the redshifted and blueshifted Ly$\alpha$ peaks to continuum flux density $f_{\rm{min}}/f_{\rm{cont}}$, and (3) equivalent width. We favor a complex \ion{H}{1} geometry to explain the Ly$\alpha$ profiles from non-LyC-leaking regions and suggest two \ion{H}{1} geometries that could diffuse and/or rescatter the central Ly$\alpha$ peak from the LyC-leaking region into our sightline across transverse distances of several hundred parsecs. Our results emphasize the complexity of Ly$\alpha$ radiative transfer and its sensitivity to the anisotropies of \ion{H}{1} gas on subgalactic scales. Large differences in the physical scales on which we observe spatially variable direct escape Ly$\alpha$, blueshifted Ly$\alpha$, and escaping LyC photons in the Sunburst Arc underscore the importance of resolving the physical scales that govern Ly$\alpha$ and LyC escape., Comment: Submitted to The Astrophysical Journal with revisions from the first referee report. Comments welcome

Wide-separation lensed quasars (WSLQs) are a rare class of strongly lensed quasars, magnified by foreground massive galaxy clusters, with typically large magnifications of the multiple quasar images. They are a relatively unexplored opportunity for detailed study of quasar host galaxies. The current small sample of known WSLQs has a median redshift of $z\approx 2.1$, larger than most other samples of quasar host galaxies studied to date. Here, we derive precise constraints on the properties of six WSLQs and their host galaxies, using parametric surface brightness fitting, measurements of quasar emission lines, and stellar population synthesis of host galaxies in six WSLQ systems. Our results, with significant uncertainty, indicate that these six hosts are a mixture of star-forming and quiescent galaxies. To probe for co-evolution between AGNs and host galaxies, we model the offset from the `local' ($z=0$) $M_{\rm{BH}}\unicode{x2013}M_\star$ relation as a simple power-law in redshift. Accounting for selection effects, a WSLQ-based model for evolution in the $M_{\rm{BH}}\unicode{x2013}M_\star$ relation has a power-law index of $\gamma_M=-0.42\pm0.31$, consistent with no evolution. Compared to several literature samples, which mostly probe unlensed quasars at $z<2$, the WSLQ sample shows less evolution from the local relation, at $\sim 4\sigma$. We find that selection affects and choices of $M_{\rm{BH}}$ calibration are the most important systematics in these comparisons. Given that we resolve host galaxy flux confidently even from the ground in some instances, our work demonstrates that WSLQs and highly magnified AGNs are exceptional systems for future AGN$\unicode{x2013}$host co-evolution studies., Comment: Submitted to ApJ. 25 pages + 7-page appendix, 12+4 figures. Key results are shown starting with Figure 6. Comments welcome

"Godzilla" is a peculiar object within the gravitationally lensed Sunburst Arc at $z=2.37$. Despite being very bright, it appears in only one of the twelve lensed images of the source galaxy, and shows exotic spectroscopic properties not found in any other clumps. We use JWST's unique combination of spatial resolution and spectroscopic sensitivity to provide a unified, coherent explanation of the physical nature of Godzilla. We measure fluxes and kinematic properties of rest-optical emission lines in Godzilla and surrounding regions. Using standard line ratio-based diagnostic methods in combination with NIRCam imaging and ground based rest-UV spectra, we characterize Godzilla and its surroundings. Among around 60 detected lines, we find a cascade of strong O I lines pumped by intense Ly$\beta$ emission, as well as Ly$\alpha$-pumped rest-optical Fe II lines, reminiscent of the Weigelt blobs in the local LBV star Eta Carinae. Spectra and images of Godzilla and two faint adjacent images, and the detection of a low-surface brightness foreground galaxy in the NIRCam data, support the interpretation that Godzilla is an extremely magnified object due to the alignment with lensing caustics. We find that Godzilla is part of a previously identified clump, comprising $\sim10 - 25$ % of it, with magnifications in the range of $\approx600-25,000$ depending on the models and images in comparison. The unique O I source in Godzilla is well explained by a non-erupting LBV accompanied by a hotter companion and/or gas condensations exposed to more intense radiation compared to the Weigelt blobs. If Godzilla is confirmed to contain an LBV star, it expands the distance to the furthest known LBV from a dozen Mpc to several Gpc., Comment: 22 pages, 19 figures. Submitted to A&A

We measure the gas-phase abundances of the elements He, N, O, Ne, S, Ar, and Fe in the Lyman-continuum emitting region of the Sunburst Arc, a highly magnified galaxy at redshift $z=2.37$. We detect the temperature-sensitive auroral lines [SII]$\lambda\lambda4069,4076$, [OII]$\lambda\lambda7320,7330$, [SIII]$\lambda6312$, [OIII]$\lambda4363$, and [NeIII]$\lambda3343$ in a stacked spectrum of 5 multiple images of the Lyman-continuum emitter (LCE), from which we directly measure the electron temperature in the low, intermediate, and high ionization zones. We also detect the density-sensitive doublets of [OII]$\lambda\lambda3727,3729$, [SII]$\lambda\lambda6717,6731$, and [ArIV]$\lambda\lambda4713,4741$, which constrain the density in both the low- and high-ionization gas. With these temperature and density measurements, we measure gas-phase abundances with similar rigor as studies of local galaxies. We measure a gas-phase metallicity for the LCE of $12+\log(\textrm{O}/\textrm{H}) = 7.97 \pm 0.05$, and find an enhanced nitrogen abundance $\log(\textrm{N}/\textrm{O}) = -0.65^{+0.16}_{-0.25}$. This nitrogen abundance is consistent with enrichment from a population of Wolf-Rayet stars, additional signatures of which are reported in a companion paper. Abundances of sulfur, argon, neon, and iron are consistent with local low-metallicity HII regions and low-redshift galaxies. This study represents the most complete chemical abundance analysis of a galaxy at Cosmic Noon to date, which enables direct comparisons between local HII regions and those in the distant universe., Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables. Submitted to ApJ

We report the detection of a population of Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars in the Sunburst Arc, a strongly gravitationally lensed galaxy at redshift $z=2.37$. As the brightest known lensed galaxy, the Sunburst Arc has become an important cosmic laboratory for studying star and cluster formation, Lyman $\alpha$ radiative transfer, and Lyman Continuum (LyC) escape. Here, we present the first results of JWST/NIRSpec IFU observations of the Sunburst Arc, focusing on a stacked spectrum of the 12-fold imaged LyC-emitting (Sunburst LCE) cluster. In agreement with previous studies, we find that the cluster is massive and compact, with $M_{\text{dyn}} = (9\pm1) \times 10^{6} M_{\odot}$, Our age estimate of 4.2--4.5 Myr is much larger than the crossing time of $t_{\text{cross}} = 183 \pm 9 $ kyr, indicating that the cluster is dynamically evolved and consistent with being gravitationally bound. We find a significant nitrogen enhancement of the low ionization state ISM, with $\log(N/O) = -0.74 \pm 0.09$, which is $\approx 0.8$ dex above typical values for H II regions of similar metallicity in the local Universe. We find broad stellar emission complexes around He II$\lambda 4686$ and C IV$\lambda 5808$ with associated nitrogen emission -- this is the first time WR signatures have been directly observed at redshifts above $\sim 0.5$. The strength of the WR signatures cannot be reproduced by stellar population models that only include single-star evolution. While models with binary evolution better match the WR features, they still struggle to reproduce the nitrogen-enhanced WR features. JWST reveals the Sunburst LCE to be a highly ionized, proto-globular cluster with low oxygen abundance and extreme nitrogen enhancement that hosts a population of Wolf-Rayet stars, and possibly Very Massive stars (VMSs), which are rapidly enriching the surrounding medium., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables. Accepted for publication in A&A

How the solar wind influences the magnetospheres of the outer planets is a fundamentally important question, but is difficult to answer in the absence of consistent, simultaneous monitoring of the upstream solar wind and the large-scale dynamics internal to the magnetosphere. To compensate for the relative lack of in-situ data, propagation models are often used to estimate the ambient solar wind conditions at the outer planets for comparison to remote observations or in-situ measurements. This introduces another complication: the propagation of near-Earth solar wind measurements introduces difficult-to-assess uncertainties. Here, we present the Multi-Model Ensemble System for the outer Heliosphere (MMESH) to begin to address these issues, along with the resultant multi-model ensemble (MME) of the solar wind conditions near Jupiter. MMESH accepts as input any number of solar wind models together with contemporaneous in-situ spacecraft data. From these, the system characterizes typical uncertainties in model timing, quantifies how these uncertainties vary under different conditions, attempts to correct for systematic biases in the input model timing, and composes a MME with uncertainties from the results. For the case of the Jupiter-MME presented here, three solar wind propagation models were compared to in-situ measurements from the near-Jupiter spacecraft Ulysses and Juno which span diverse geometries and phases of the solar cycle, amounting to more than 14,000 hours of data over 2.5 decades. The MME gives the most-probable near-Jupiter solar wind conditions for times within the tested epoch, outperforming the input models and returning quantified estimates of uncertainty., Comment: 31 pages, 10 figures

Solar radio bursts (SRBs), are emitted by electrons propagating through the corona and interplanetary space. Tracking such bursts is key to understanding the properties of accelerated electrons and radio wave propagation as well as the local plasma environment that they propagate through. Here, we present a novel multilateration algorithm called BayEsian LocaLisation Algorithm (BELLA). In addition, apparent SRB positions from BELLA are compared with comparable localisation methods and the predictions of solar wind models. BELLA uses Bayesian inference to create probabilistic distributions of source positions and their uncertainties. This facilitates the estimation of algorithmic, instrumental, and physical uncertainties in a quantitative manner. We validated BELLA using simulations and a Type III SRB observed by STEREO A/B and Wind. BELLA tracked the Type III source from $\sim$ 10--150 $R_{sun}$ (2-0.15 MHz) along a spiral trajectory. This allowed for an estimate of an apparent solar wind speed of $v_{sw} \sim$ 400 km s$^{-1}$ and a source longitude of $\phi_0 \sim$ 30deg. We compared these results with well-established methods of positioning: Goniopolarimetric (GP), analytical time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA), and Solar radio burst Electron Motion Tracker (SEMP). We found them to be in agreement with the results obtained by BELLA. Additionally, the results aligned with solar wind properties assimilated by the Heliospheric Upwind Extrapolation with time dependence (HUXt) model. We have validated BELLA and used it to identify apparent source positions as well as velocities and densities of the solar wind. Furthermore, we identified higher than expected electron densities, suggesting that the true emission sources were at lower altitudes than those identified by BELLA, an effect that may be due to appreciable scattering of electromagnetic waves by electrons in interplanetary space., Comment: 13 pages, 12 figures, in press, accepted by Astronomy and Astrophysics for publication

Through observational tests of strong lensing galaxy clusters, we can test simulation derived structure predictions that follow from $\Lambda$ Cold Dark Matter ($\Lambda$CDM) cosmology. The shape and centroid deviations between the total matter distribution, stellar matter distributions, and hot intracluster gas distribution serve as an observational test of these theoretical structure predictions. We measure the position angles, ellipticities, and locations/centroids of the brightest cluster galaxy (BCG), intracluster light (ICL), the hot intracluster medium (ICM), and the core lensing mass for a sample of strong lensing galaxy clusters from the SDSS Giant Arcs Survey (SGAS). We utilize HST WFC3/IR imaging data to measure the shapes/centroids of the ICL and BCG distributions and use Chandra ACIS-I X-ray data to measure the shapes/centroids of ICM. Additionally, we measure the concentration parameter c and asymmetry parameter A to incorporate cluster dynamical state into our analysis. Using this multicomponent approach, we attempt to constrain the astrophysics of our strong lensing cluster sample and evaluate the different components in terms of their ability to trace out the DM halo of clusters in various dynamical states., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, to appear in Proc. of the mm Universe 2023 conference, Grenoble (France), June 2023, published by F. Mayet et al. (Eds), EPJ Web of conferences, EDP Sciences

The ISWAT clusters H1+H2 have a focus on interplanetary space and its characteristics, especially on the large-scale co-rotating and transient structures impacting Earth. SIRs, generated by the interaction between high-speed solar wind originating in large-scale open coronal magnetic fields and slower solar wind from closed magnetic fields, are regions of compressed plasma and magnetic field followed by high-speed streams that recur at the ca. 27 day solar rotation period. Short-term reconfigurations of the lower coronal magnetic field generate flare emissions and provide the energy to accelerate enormous amounts of magnetised plasma and particles in the form of CMEs into interplanetary space. The dynamic interplay between these phenomena changes the configuration of interplanetary space on various temporal and spatial scales which in turn influences the propagation of individual structures. While considerable efforts have been made to model the solar wind, we outline the limitations arising from the rather large uncertainties in parameters inferred from observations that make reliable predictions of the structures impacting Earth difficult. Moreover, the increased complexity of interplanetary space as solar activity rises in cycle 25 is likely to pose a challenge to these models. Combining observational and modeling expertise will extend our knowledge of the relationship between these different phenomena and the underlying physical processes, leading to improved models and scientific understanding and more-reliable space-weather forecasting. The current paper summarizes the efforts and progress achieved in recent years, identifies open questions, and gives an outlook for the next 5-10 years. It acts as basis for updating the existing COSPAR roadmap by Schrijver+ (2015), as well as providing a useful and practical guide for peer-users and the next generation of space weather scientists., Comment: Accepted for publication in Advances in Space Research

Extreme emission line galaxies (EELGs) are considered the primary contributor to cosmic reionization and are valuable laboratories to study the astrophysics of massive stars. It is strongly expected that Roman's High Latitude Wide Area Survey (HLWAS) will find many strongly gravitationally lensed [O III] emitters at Cosmic Noon (1 < z < 2.8). Roman imaging and grism spectroscopy alone will simultaneously confirm these strong lens systems and probe their interstellar medium (ISM) and stellar properties on small scales ($\lesssim$ 100 pc). Moreover, these observations will synergize with ground-based and space-based follow-up observations of the discovered lensed [O III] emitters in multi-wavelength analyses of their properties (e.g., massive stars and possible escape of ionizing radiation), spatially resolved on the scales of individual star cluster complexes. Only Roman can uniquely sample a large number of lensed [O III] emitters to study the small scale (~ 100 pc) ISM and stellar properties of these extreme emission line galaxies, detailing the key physics of massive stars and the ISM that govern cosmic reionization., Comment: Submitted in response to the call for Roman Telescope CCS white papers

Extreme, young stellar populations are considered the primary contributor to cosmic re-ionization. How Lyman-continuum (LyC) escapes these galaxies remains highly elusive, and it is challenging to observe this process in actual LyC emitters without resolving the relevant physical scales. We investigate the Sunburst Arc: a strongly lensed, LyC emitter at $z =2.37$ that reveals an exceptionally small scale (tens of parsecs) region of high LyC escape. The small ($<$ 100 pc) LyC leaking region has extreme properties: a very blue UV slope ($\beta = -2.9 \pm 0.1$), high ionization state ([O III]$\lambda 5007$/[O II]$\lambda 3727 $ $= 11 \pm 3$ and [O III]$\lambda 5007$/H$\beta$ $=6.8 \pm 0.4$), strong oxygen emission (EW([O III]) $= 1095 \pm 40 \ \r{A}$), and high Lyman-$\alpha$ escape fraction ($0.3 \pm 0.03$), none of which are found in non-leaking regions of the galaxy. The leaking region's UV slope is consistent with approximately ``pure'' stellar light that is minimally contaminated by surrounding nebular continuum emission or extinguished by dust. These results suggest a highly anisotropic LyC escape process such that LyC is produced and escapes from a small, extreme starburst region where the stellar feedback from an ionizing star cluster creates one or more ``pencil beam'' channels in the surrounding gas through which LyC can directly escape. Such anisotropic escape processes imply that random sightline effects drive the significant scatters between measurements of galaxy properties and LyC escape fraction, and that strong lensing is a critical tool for resolving the processes that regulate the ionizing budget of galaxies for re-ionization., Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables, Accepted for publication by ApJL

We report progress on the ongoing recalibration of the Wolf sunspot number (SN) and Group sunspot number (GN) following the release of version 2.0 of SN in 2015. This report constitutes both an update of the efforts reported in the 2016 Topical Issue of Solar Physics and a summary of work by the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) International Team formed in 2017 to develop optimal SN and GN re-construction methods while continuing to expand the historical sunspot number database. Significant progress has been made on the database side while more work is needed to bring the various proposed SN and (primarily) GN reconstruction methods closer to maturity, after which the new reconstructions (or combinations thereof) can be compared with (a) ``benchmark'' expectations for any normalization scheme (e.g., a general increase in observer normalization factors going back in time), and (b) independent proxy data series such as F10.7 and the daily range of variations of Earth's undisturbed magnetic field. New versions of the underlying databases for SN and GN will shortly become available for years through 2022 and we anticipate the release of next versions of these two time series in 2024., Comment: 21 figures, 4 tables. To be published in Solar Physics

We analyze spectra of a gravitationally lensed galaxy, known as the Sunburst Arc, that is leaking ionizing photons, also known as the Lyman continuum (LyC). Magnification from gravitational lensing permits the galaxy to be spatially resolved into one region that leaks ionizing photons, and several that do not. Rest-frame ultraviolet and optical spectra from Magellan target ten different regions along the lensed Arc, including six multiple images of the LyC leaking region, as well as four regions that do not show LyC emission. The rest-frame optical spectra of the ionizing photon emitting regions reveal a blue-shifted ($\Delta V$=27 km s$^{-1}$) broad emission component (FWHM=327 km s$^{-1}$) comprising 55% of the total [OIII] line flux, in addition to a narrow component (FWHM = 112 km s$^{-1}$), suggesting the presence of strong highly ionized gas outflows. This is consistent with the high-velocity ionized outflow inferred from the rest-frame UV spectra. In contrast, the broad emission component is less prominent in the non-leaking regions, comprising $\sim$26% of total [OIII] line flux. The high ionization absorption lines are prominent in both leaker and non-leaker but low ionization absorption lines are very weak in the leaker, suggesting that the line of sight gas is highly ionized in the leaker. Analyses of stellar wind features reveal that the stellar population of the LyC leaking regions is considerably younger ($\sim$3 Myr) than the non-leaking regions ($\sim$12 Myr), highlighting that stellar feedback from young stars may play an important role in ionizing photon escape., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

Many scientists use coronal hole (CH) detections to infer open magnetic flux. Detection techniques differ in the areas that they assign as open, and may obtain different values for the open magnetic flux. We characterize the uncertainties of these methods, by applying six different detection methods to deduce the area and open flux of a near-disk center CH observed on 9/19/2010, and applying a single method to five different EUV filtergrams for this CH. Open flux was calculated using five different magnetic maps. The standard deviation (interpreted as the uncertainty) in the open flux estimate for this CH was about 26%. However, including the variability of different magnetic data sources, this uncertainty almost doubles to 45%. We use two of the methods to characterize the area and open flux for all CHs in this time period. We find that the open flux is greatly underestimated compared to values inferred from in-situ measurements (by 2.2-4 times). We also test our detection techniques on simulated emission images from a thermodynamic MHD model of the solar corona. We find that the methods overestimate the area and open flux in the simulated CH, but the average error in the flux is only about 7%. The full-Sun detections on the simulated corona underestimate the model open flux, but by factors well below what is needed to account for the missing flux in the observations. Under-detection of open flux in coronal holes likely contributes to the recognized deficit in solar open flux, but is unlikely to resolve it., Comment: 28 pages, 10 figures, submitted to ApJ

The recent launches of Parker Solar Probe (PSP), Solar Orbiter (SO) and BepiColombo, along with several older spacecraft, have provided the opportunity to study the solar wind at multiple latitudes and distances from the Sun simultaneously. We take advantage of this unique spacecraft constellation, along with low solar activity across two solar rotations between May and July 2020, to investigate how the solar wind structure, including the Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS), varies with latitude. We visualise the sector structure of the inner heliosphere by ballistically mapping the polarity and solar wind speed from several spacecraft onto the Sun's source surface. We then assess the HCS morphology and orientation with the in situ data and compare with a predicted HCS shape. We resolve ripples in the HCS on scales of a few degrees in longitude and latitude, finding that the local orientation of sector boundaries were broadly consistent with the shape of the HCS but were steepened with respect to a modelled HCS at the Sun. We investigate how several CIRs varied with latitude, finding evidence for the compression region affecting slow solar wind outside the latitude extent of the faster stream. We also identified several transient structures associated with HCS crossings, and speculate that one such transient may have disrupted the local HCS orientation up to five days after its passage. We have shown that the solar wind structure varies significantly with latitude, with this constellation providing context for solar wind measurements that would not be possible with a single spacecraft. These measurements provide an accurate representation of the solar wind within $\pm 10^{\circ}$ latitude, which could be used as a more rigorous constraint on solar wind models and space weather predictions. In the future, this range of latitudes will increase as SO's orbit becomes more inclined., Comment: Accepted version

On 2020 April 19 a coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in situ by Solar Orbiter at a heliocentric distance of about 0.8 AU. The CME was later observed in situ on April 20th by the Wind and BepiColombo spacecraft whilst BepiColombo was located very close to Earth. This CME presents a good opportunity for a triple radial alignment study, as the spacecraft were separated by less than 5$^\circ$ in longitude. The source of the CME, which was launched on April 15th, was an almost entirely isolated streamer blowout. STEREO-A observed the event remotely from -75.1$^\circ$ longitude, which is an exceptionally well suited viewpoint for heliospheric imaging of an Earth directed CME. The configuration of the four spacecraft has provided an exceptionally clean link between remote imaging and in situ observations of the CME. We have used the in situ observations of the CME at Solar Orbiter, Wind, and BepiColombo, and the remote observations of the CME at STEREO-A in combination with flux rope models to determine the global shape of the CME and its evolution as it propagated through the inner heliosphere. A clear flattening of the CME cross-section has been observed by STEREO-A, and further confirmed by comparing profiles of the flux rope models to the in situ data, where the distorted flux rope cross-section qualitatively agrees most with in situ observations of the magnetic field at Solar Orbiter. Comparing in situ observations of the magnetic field between spacecraft, we find that the dependence of the maximum (mean) magnetic field strength decreases with heliocentric distance as $r^{-1.24 \pm 0.50}$ ($r^{-1.12 \pm 0.14}$), in disagreement with previous studies. Further assessment of the axial and poloidal magnetic field strength dependencies suggests that the expansion of the CME is likely neither self-similar nor cylindrically symmetric.

Solar Orbiter is the first space mission observing the solar plasma both in situ and remotely, from a close distance, in and out of the ecliptic. The ultimate goal is to understand how the Sun produces and controls the heliosphere, filling the Solar System and driving the planetary environments. With six remote-sensing and four in-situ instrument suites, the coordination and planning of the operations are essential to address the following four top-level science questions: (1) What drives the solar wind and where does the coronal magnetic field originate? (2) How do solar transients drive heliospheric variability? (3) How do solar eruptions produce energetic particle radiation that fills the heliosphere? (4) How does the solar dynamo work and drive connections between the Sun and the heliosphere? Maximising the mission's science return requires considering the characteristics of each orbit, including the relative position of the spacecraft to Earth (affecting downlink rates), trajectory events (such as gravitational assist manoeuvres), and the phase of the solar activity cycle. Furthermore, since each orbit's science telemetry will be downloaded over the course of the following orbit, science operations must be planned at mission level, rather than at the level of individual orbits. It is important to explore the way in which those science questions are translated into an actual plan of observations that fits into the mission, thus ensuring that no opportunities are missed. First, the overarching goals are broken down into specific, answerable questions along with the required observations and the so-called Science Activity Plan (SAP) is developed to achieve this. The SAP groups objectives that require similar observations into Solar Orbiter Observing Plans (SOOPs), resulting in a strategic, top-level view of the optimal opportunities for science observations during the mission lifetime., Comment: 20 pages, 1 figure, accepted by Astronomy & Astrophysics

Studying the ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure-driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve through the heliosphere before reaching Earth, and especially during solar minimum are themselves a driver of activity in the Earth's magnetic field. Accurately forecasting the ambient solar wind flow is therefore imperative to space weather awareness. Here we present a machine learning approach in which solutions from magnetic models of the solar corona are used to output the solar wind conditions near the Earth. The results are compared to observations and existing models in a comprehensive validation analysis, and the new model outperforms existing models in almost all measures. In addition, this approach offers a new perspective to discuss the role of different input data to ambient solar wind modeling, and what this tells us about the underlying physical processes. The final model discussed here represents an extremely fast, well-validated and open-source approach to the forecasting of ambient solar wind at Earth., Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables

The heliospheric magnetic field is of pivotal importance in solar and space physics. The field is rooted in the Sun's photosphere, where it has been observed for many years. Global maps of the solar magnetic field based on full disk magnetograms are commonly used as boundary conditions for coronal and solar wind models. Two primary observational constraints on the models are (1) the open field regions in the model should approximately correspond to coronal holes observed in emission, and (2) the magnitude of the open magnetic flux in the model should match that inferred from in situ spacecraft measurements. In this study, we calculate both MHD and PFSS solutions using fourteen different magnetic maps produced from five different types of observatory magnetograms, for the time period surrounding July, 2010. We have found that for all of the model/map combinations, models that have coronal hole areas close to observations underestimate the interplanetary magnetic flux, or, conversely, for models to match the interplanetary flux, the modeled open field regions are larger than coronal holes observed in EUV emission. In an alternative approach, we estimate the open magnetic flux entirely from solar observations by combining automatically detected coronal holes for Carrington rotation 2098 with observatory synoptic magnetic maps. This approach also underestimates the interplanetary magnetic flux. Our results imply that either typical observatory maps underestimate the Sun's magnetic flux, or a significant portion of the open magnetic flux is not rooted in regions that are obviously dark in EUV and X-ray emission.

More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies $foF2$ had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of $foF2$ to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17 - 21. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - $foF2$ relationship. Over the interval studied here, the ISN, $R$, the backbone group number $Rbb$, and the corrected number $Rc$ largely differ in their allowance for the 'Waldmeier discontinuity' around 1945 (the correction factor for which for $R$, $Rbb$ and $Rc$ is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20%, and explicitly 11.6%). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18 - 21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for $Rbb$. We here use $foF2$ for those UTs for which $R$, $Rbb$, and $Rc$ all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes $R$ to underestimate the fitted values based on the $foF2$ data for 1932 - 1945 but $Rbb$ overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in $Rbb$ is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for $Rc$ and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval., Comment: 35 pages, 11 figures

Although the sunspot-number series have existed since the mid-19th century, they are still the subject of intense debate, with the largest uncertainty being related to the "calibration" of the visual acuity of individual observers in the past. Daisy-chain regression methods are applied to inter-calibrate the observers which may lead to significant bias and error accumulation. Here we present a novel method to calibrate the visual acuity of the key observers to the reference data set of Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot groups for the period 1900-1976, using the statistics of the active-day fraction. For each observer we independently evaluate their observational thresholds [S_S] defined such that the observer is assumed to miss all of the groups with an area smaller than S_S and report all the groups larger than S_S. Next, using a Monte-Carlo method we construct, from the reference data set, a correction matrix for each observer. The correction matrices are significantly non-linear and cannot be approximated by a linear regression or proportionality. We emphasize that corrections based on a linear proportionality between annually averaged data lead to serious biases and distortions of the data. The correction matrices are applied to the original sunspot group records for each day, and finally the composite corrected series is produced for the period since 1748. The corrected series displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg minimum), as well as the Modern grand maximum of activity in the second half of the 20th century. The uniqueness of the grand maximum is confirmed for the last 250 years. It is shown that the adoption of a linear relationship between the data of Wolf and Wolfer results in grossly inflated group numbers in the 18th and 19th centuries in some reconstructions., Comment: Accepted for publication at Solar Physics

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups $R_B$ above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of $R_B$ are then re-scaled to the observed RGO group number $R_A$ using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between $R_A$ and $R_B$ ($r_{AB}$ > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (e.g. sunspot maximum values can be over 30% too large even for such levels of $r_{AB}$). In generating the backbone sunspot number, Svalgaard and Schatten [2015] force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (Q-Q) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data., Comment: 14 pages, 1 Table, 11 figures

We investigate a CME propagating towards Earth on 29 March 2011. This event is specifically chosen for its predominately northward directed magnetic field, so that the influence from the momentum flux onto Earth can be isolated. We focus our study on understanding how a small Earth-directed segment propagates. Mass images are created from the white-light cameras onboard STEREO which are also converted into mass height-time maps (mass J-maps). The mass tracks on these J-maps correspond to the sheath region between the CME and its associated shock front as detected by in situ measurements at L1. A time-series of mass measurements from the STEREO COR-2A instrument are made along the Earth propagation direction. Qualitatively, this mass time-series shows a remarkable resemblance to the L1 in situ density series. The in situ measurements are used as inputs into a 3D magnetospheric space weather simulation from CCMC. These simulations display a sudden compression of the magnetosphere from the large momentum flux at the leading edge of the CME and predictions are made for the time-derivative of the magnetic field (dB/dt) on the ground. The predicted dB/dt were then compared with observations from specific equatorially-located ground stations and show notable similarity. This study of the momentum of a CME from the Sun down to its influence on magnetic ground stations on Earth is presented as preliminary proof of concept, such that future attempts may try to use remote sensing to create density and velocity time-series as inputs to magnetospheric simulations., Comment: Accepted for publication 8th March 2013. Submitted 18th Dec 2012. 19 Pages, 10 figures, 2 Appendices

Stereoscopic white-light imaging of a large portion of the inner heliosphere has been used to track interplanetary coronal mass ejections. At large elongations from the Sun, the white-light brightness depends on both the local electron density and the efficiency of the Thomson-scattering process. To quantify the effects of the Thomson-scattering geometry, we study an interplanetary shock using forward magnetohydrodynamic simulation and synthetic white-light imaging. Identifiable as an inclined streak of enhanced brightness in a time-elongation map, the travelling shock can be readily imaged by an observer located within a wide range of longitudes in the ecliptic. Different parts of the shock front contribute to the imaged brightness pattern viewed by observers at different longitudes. Moreover, even for an observer located at a fixed longitude, a different part of the shock front will contribute to the imaged brightness at any given time. The observed brightness within each imaging pixel results from a weighted integral along its corresponding ray-path. It is possible to infer the longitudinal location of the shock from the brightness pattern in an optical sky map, based on the east-west asymmetry in its brightness and degree of polarization. Therefore, measurement of the interplanetary polarized brightness could significantly reduce the ambiguity in performing three-dimensional reconstruction of local electron density from white-light imaging., Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables, Solar Physics

Recent coordinated observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and stereoscopic heliospheric imagers (HIs) are significant to continuously track the propagation and evolution of solar eruptions throughout interplanetary space. In order to obtain a better understanding of the observational signatures in these two remote-sensing techniques, the magnetohydrodynamics of the macro-scale interplanetary disturbance and the radio-wave scattering of the micro-scale electron-density fluctuation are coupled and investigated using a newly-constructed multi-scale numerical model. This model is then applied to a case of an interplanetary shock propagation within the ecliptic plane. The shock could be nearly invisible to an HI, once entering the Thomson-scattering sphere of the HI. The asymmetry in the optical images between the western and eastern HIs suggests the shock propagation off the Sun-Earth line. Meanwhile, an IPS signal, strongly dependent on the local electron density, is insensitive to the density cavity far downstream of the shock front. When this cavity (or the shock nose) is cut through by an IPS ray-path, a single speed component at the flank (or the nose) of the shock can be recorded; when an IPS ray-path penetrates the sheath between the shock nose and this cavity, two speed components at the sheath and flank can be detected. Moreover, once a shock front touches an IPS ray-path, the derived position and speed at the irregularity source of this IPS signal, together with an assumption of a radial and constant propagation of the shock, can be used to estimate the later appearance of the shock front in the elongation of the HI field of view. The results of synthetic measurements from forward modelling are helpful in inferring the in-situ properties of coronal mass ejection from real observational data via an inverse approach., Comment: 31 pages, 8 figures, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, accepted

We perform a numerical study of the evolution of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and its interaction with the coronal magnetic field based on the May 12, 1997, CME event using a global MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) model for the solar corona. The ambient solar wind steady-state solution is driven by photospheric magnetic field data, while the solar eruption is obtained by superimposing an unstable flux rope onto the steady-state solution. During the initial stage of CME expansion, the core flux rope reconnects with the neighboring field, which facilitates lateral expansion of the CME footprint in the low corona. The flux rope field also reconnects with the oppositely orientated overlying magnetic field in the manner of the breakout model. During this stage of the eruption, the simulated CME rotates counter-clockwise to achieve an orientation that is in agreement with the interplanetary flux rope observed at 1 AU. A significant component of the CME that expands into interplanetary space comprises one of the side lobes created mainly as a result of reconnection with the overlying field. Within 3 hours, reconnection effectively modifies the CME connectivity from the initial condition where both footpoints are rooted in the active region to a situation where one footpoint is displaced into the quiet Sun, at a significant distance ($\approx 1R_\odot$) from the original source region. The expansion and rotation due to interaction with the overlying magnetic field stops when the CME reaches the outer edge of the helmet streamer belt, where the field is organized on a global scale. The simulation thus offers a new view of the role reconnection plays in rotating a CME flux rope and transporting its footpoints while preserving its core structure., Comment: Accepted to JGR Space Physics, 15 pages, 8 figures

An update of Owens et al. (2008) shows that the relationship between the coronal mass ejection (CME) rate and the heliospheric magnetic field strength predicts a field floor of less than 4 nT at 1 AU. This implies that the record low values measured during this solar minimum do not necessarily contradict the idea that open flux is conserved. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that CMEs add flux to the heliosphere and interchange reconnection between open flux and closed CME loops subtracts flux. An existing model embracing this hypothesis, however, overestimates flux during the current minimum, even though the CME rate has been low. The discrepancy calls for reasonable changes in model assumptions., Comment: in press, ASP Conference Series, SOHO-23: Understanding a Peculiar Solar Minimum, edited by S. Cranmer, T. Hoeksema, and J. Kohl

We present the results of a study of solar wind velocity and magnetic field correlation lengths over the last 35 years. The correlation length of the magnetic field magnitude lambda(|B|) increases on average by a factor of two at solar maxima compared to solar minima. The correlation lengths of the components of the magnetic field lambda(Bxyz) and of the velocity lambda(Vyz) do not show this change and have similar values, indicating a continual turbulent correlation length of around 1.4 x 10^6 km. We conclude that a linear relation between lambda(|B|), VB^2 and Kp suggests that the former is related to the total magnetic energy in the solar wind and an estimate of the average size of geo-effective structures which is in turn proportional to VB^2. By looking at the distribution of daily correlation lengths we show that the solar minimum values of lambda(|B|) correspond to the turbulent outer scale. A tail of larger lambda(|B|) values is present at solar maximum, causing the increase in mean value., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, in press in Solar Physics