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BACKGROUND: Strategies to control coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) have often been based on preliminary and limited data and have tended to be slow to evolve as new evidence emerges. Yet knowledge about COVID-19 has grown exponentially, and the expanding rollout of vaccines presents further opportunity to reassess the response to the pandemic more broadly. MAIN TEXT: We review the latest evidence concerning 10 key COVID-19 policy and strategic areas, specifically addressing: 1) the expansion of equitable vaccine distribution, 2) the need to ease restrictions as hospitalization and mortality rates eventually fall, 3) the advantages of emphasizing educational and harm reduction approaches over coercive and punitive measures, 4) the need to encourage outdoor activities, 5) the imperative to reopen schools, 6) the far-reaching and long-term economic and psychosocial consequences of sustained lockdowns, 7) the excessive focus on surface disinfection and other ineffective measures, 8) the importance of reassessing testing policies and practices, 9) the need for increasing access to outpatient therapies and prophylactics, and 10) the necessity to better prepare for future pandemics. CONCLUSIONS: While remarkably effective vaccines have engendered great hope, some widely held assumptions underlying current policy approaches call for an evidence-based reassessment. COVID-19 will require ongoing mitigation for the foreseeable future as it transforms from a pandemic into an endemic infection, but maintaining a constant state of emergency is not viable. A more realistic public health approach is to adjust current mitigation goals to be more data-driven and to minimize unintended harms associated with unfocused or ineffective control efforts. Based on the latest evidence, we therefore present recommendations for refining 10 key policy areas, and for applying lessons learned from COVID-19 to prevent and prepare for future pandemics.

BackgroundEconomic theory and limited empirical data suggest that costs per unit of HIV prevention program output (unit costs) will initially decrease as small programs expand. Unit costs may then reach a nadir and start to increase if expansion continues beyond the economically optimal size. Information on the relationship between scale and unit costs is critical to project the cost of global HIV prevention efforts and to allocate prevention resources efficiently.MethodsThe "Prevent AIDS: Network for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis" (PANCEA) project collected 2003 and 2004 cost and output data from 206 HIV prevention programs of six types in five countries. The association between scale and efficiency for each intervention type was examined for each country. Our team characterized the direction, shape, and strength of this association by fitting bivariate regression lines to scatter plots of output levels and unit costs. We chose the regression forms with the highest explanatory power (R2).ResultsEfficiency increased with scale, across all countries and interventions. This association varied within intervention and within country, in terms of the range in scale and efficiency, the best fitting regression form, and the slope of the regression. The fraction of variation in efficiency explained by scale ranged from 26-96%. Doubling in scale resulted in reductions in unit costs averaging 34.2% (ranging from 2.4% to 58.0%). Two regression trends, in India, suggested an inflection point beyond which unit costs increased.ConclusionUnit costs decrease with scale across a wide range of service types and volumes. These country and intervention-specific findings can inform projections of the global cost of scaling up HIV prevention efforts.

Author(s): Evelinn Mikkelsen 1, Jan A. C. Hontelez 2,3,4,*, Maarten P. M. Jansen 1, Till Bärnighausen 2,4,5, Katharina Hauck 6, Kjell A. Johansson 7,8, Gesine Meyer-Rath 9,10, Mead Over 11, [...]

Adults, defined here as people between 15 and 59 years of age, in developing countries have a high risk of premature death and suffer from frequent morbidity and high rates of chronic impairment. Their ill health imposes a major burden on health services and large negative consequences on families, communities, and societies. This paper describes the level and impact of adult mortality and morbidity, and highlights some of its characteristics and causes, which in some cases contradict commonly held beliefs. It concludes that 'adult health' is a legitimate public health concern for developing countries that is not being addressed. An agenda for remedial research and action is proposed., Programs that address adult health problems in developing countries are scarce, because of an emphasis on children's health and safety, lack of knowledge about the causes of ill health in adults and lack of understanding of how timely prevention and treatment could cut healthcare costs. Research has focused on specific diseases rather than accurate surveys of all illness among adults. What is known is that poverty increases illness and mortality rates. However, this relationship does not hold absolutely. The US, for example, has a higher mortality rate than its per capita income would suggest, while Spain has a lower one. Except for tropical diseases, the leading causes of death for adults in developing countries are noncommunicable diseases. Campaigns that reduce smoking; promote traffic safety, safe sex, prenatal care, cancer screening, disease management and vaccinations against communicable diseases, and clean up pollution are designed to lower the incidence of adult morbidity and mortality rates.

Abstract Background Economic theory and limited empirical data suggest that costs per unit of HIV prevention program output (unit costs) will initially decrease as small programs expand. Unit costs may then reach a nadir and start to increase if expansion continues beyond the economically optimal size. Information on the relationship between scale and unit costs is critical to project the cost of global HIV prevention efforts and to allocate prevention resources efficiently. Methods The "Prevent AIDS: Network for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis" (PANCEA) project collected 2003 and 2004 cost and output data from 206 HIV prevention programs of six types in five countries. The association between scale and efficiency for each intervention type was examined for each country. Our team characterized the direction, shape, and strength of this association by fitting bivariate regression lines to scatter plots of output levels and unit costs. We chose the regression forms with the highest explanatory power (R2). Results Efficiency increased with scale, across all countries and interventions. This association varied within intervention and within country, in terms of the range in scale and efficiency, the best fitting regression form, and the slope of the regression. The fraction of variation in efficiency explained by scale ranged from 26% – 96%. Doubling in scale resulted in reductions in unit costs averaging 34.2% (ranging from 2.4% to 58.0%). Two regression trends, in India, suggested an inflection point beyond which unit costs increased. Conclusion Unit costs decrease with scale across a wide range of service types and volumes. These country and intervention-specific findings can inform projections of the global cost of scaling up HIV prevention efforts.

Abstract Background Control of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) is an important part of the effort to reduce the risk of HIV/AIDS. STI clinics in the government hospitals in India provide services predominantly to the poor. Data on the cost and efficiency of providing STI services in India are not available to help guide efficient use of public resources for these services. Methods Standardised methods were used to obtain detailed cost and output data for the 2003–2004 fiscal year from written records and interviews in 14 government STI clinics in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. The economic cost per patient receiving STI treatment was calculated, and the variations of total and unit costs across the STI clinics analysed. Multivariate regression technique was used to estimate incremental unit costs. The optimal number of STIs that could be handled by the clinics was estimated. Results 18807 STIs were diagnosed and treated at the 14 STI clinics in fiscal year 2003–2004 (range 323–2784, median 1199). The economic cost of treating each STI varied 5-fold from Indian Rupees (INR) 225.5 (US$ 4.91) to INR 1201.5 (US$ 26.15) between 13 clinics, with one other clinic having a very high cost of INR 2478.5 (US$ 53.94). The average cost per STI treated for all 14 clinics combined was INR 729.5 (US$ 15.88). Personnel salaries made up 76.2% of the total cost. The number of STIs treated per doctor full-time equivalent and cost-efficiency for each STI treated had a significant direct non-linear relation (p < 0.001, R2 = 0.81; power function). With a multiple regression model, apart from the fixed costs, the incremental cost for each STI detected and cost of treatment was INR 55.57 (US$ 1.21) and for each follow-up visit was INR 3.75 (US$ 0.08). Based on estimates of optimal STI cases that could be handled without compromising quality by each doctor full-time equivalent available, it was projected that at 8 of the 14 clinics substantially more STI cases could be handled, which could increase the total STI cases treated at the 14 clinics combined by 38% at an additional cost of only 3.5% for service provision. Conclusion There is un-utilised capacity in the public sector STI clinics in this Indian state. Efforts to facilitate utilisation of this capacity would be useful, as this would enable more poor patients with STIs to be served at minimal additional cost, and would also reduce the cost per STI treated leading to more efficient use of public resources.

Policy discussions about the feasibility of massively scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) to reduce HIV transmission and incidence hinge on accurately projecting the cost of such scale-up in comparison to the benefits from reduced HIV incidence and mortality. We review the available literature on modelled estimates of the cost of providing ART to different populations around the world, and suggest alternative methods of characterising cost when modelling several decades into the future. In past economic analyses of ART provision, costs were often assumed to vary by disease stage and treatment regimen, but for treatment as prevention, in particular, most analyses assume a uniform cost per patient. This approach disregards variables that can affect unit cost, such as differences in factor prices (i.e., the prices of supplies and services) and the scale and scope of operations (i.e., the sizes and types of facilities providing ART). We discuss several of these variables, and then present a worked example of a flexible cost function used to determine the effect of scale on the cost of a proposed scale-up of treatment as prevention in South Africa. Adjusting previously estimated costs of universal testing and treatment in South Africa for diseconomies of small scale, i.e., more patients being treated in smaller facilities, adds 42% to the expected future cost of the intervention., Introduction Informed by biological plausibility [1], observational studies [2], and a trial [3] showing that ART reduces transmission of HIV within heterosexual serodiscordant couples, recent modelling papers [4-6] have projected [...]

Risky sexual behaviour in PLWHA on antiretroviral therapy threatens both prevention and treatment efforts, but disclosure promises to support safer sexual practices. This paper investigates the association between HIV self-disclosure and consistent condom use in a cohort of public sector patients on antiretroviral (ARV) treatment. Using data from the FEATS cohort study, logistic regression analysis shows that knowledge of your partner's HIV status is positively associated with consistent condom use (OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.37-5.43, p = 0.004) and so too mutual HIV disclosure (OR 3.38, 95% CI 1.60-7.18, p = 0.001). Prevention and treatment programmes, through couple HIV counselling and testing (CHCT) and other assistance programmes, should focus on supporting the mutual disclosure of HIV status among PLWHA on ARV treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]