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In the era of Industry 4.0, digital transformation has spurred the swift advancement of technologies, including intelligent predictive maintenance scheduling, prognostics and health management. The accurate prediction of remaining useful life plays a crucial role in these technologies as it extends power equipment’s safe operational duration and decreases the maintenance costs associated with unforeseen shutdowns. Also, the increased accessibility of data for monitoring system conditions has paved the way for the more immense adoption of machine learning models in prognostics and health management for power transformers. At the moment, with the ever-increasing demand for electricity, there is a corresponding increase in the degradation processes of power transformers. Transformers insulation system and more importantly, the paper insulation happens to be the principal part where the degradation is prominent. Therefore, an accurate prediction of the insulating paper condition through its degree of polymerization is required to guarantee the reliability of power transformers. In this regard, the predictions, reliability, and health monitoring of this power equipment can be actualized by modeling the degradation of transformer insulation paper through several machine learning frameworks. In this view, this review paper has been drafted not only to serve as a guide for researchers interested in the fields of transformer insulation system fault prognosis but also to offer insights into potential research directions as existing literature in modeling and evaluating transformer paper insulation is presented.

The aim of this research is to predict the mechanical properties along with the behaviors of standard insulating paper used in power transformers under thermal aging. This is conducted by applying an artificial neural network (ANN) trained with a multiple regression model and a particle swarm optimization (MR-PSO) model. The aging of the paper insulation is monitored directly by the tensile strength and the degree of polymerization of the solid insulation and indirectly by chemical markers using 2-furfuraldehyde compound content in oil (2-FAL). A mathematical model is then developed to simulate the mechanical properties (degree of polymerization (DPV) and tensile index (Tidx)) of the aged insulation paper. First, the datasets obtained from experimental results are used to create the MR model, and then the optimizer method PSO is used to optimize its coefficients in order to improve the MR model. Then, an ANN method is trained using the MR-PSO to create a nonlinear correlation between the DPV and the time, temperature, and 2-FAL values. The acquired results are assessed and compared with the experimental data. The model presents almost the same behavior. In particular, it has the capability to accurately simulate the nonlinear property behavior of insulation under thermal aging with an acceptable margin of error. Since the life expectancy of power transformers is directly related to that of the insulating paper, the proposed model can be useful to maintenance planners.